Fly on the Wall | BJP’s offensive worries NCP

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP’s offensive worries NCP

The BJP seems to have mounted a fresh offensive against the NCP leadership after a lull. Two recent acts have turned heads. The first case relates to Enforcement Directorate action against former Maharashtra minister Anil Deshmukh which forced NCP supremo Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule, Jayant Patil and others to repeatedly come out in his defence. What has made NCP leadership worried is the extremely proactive action by the ED as if the agency is in a hurry after being instructed by political bosses in Delhi. It is not as if the CBI and other agencies have not registered cases against NCP leaders in the past. But such super speed action was never witnessed before. But it is the second action by the Maharashtra BJP against Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar that has raised eyebrows. The BJP’s top Maharashtra leadership recently passed a resolution named Ajit Pawar in the Sachin Waze case. The BJP specifically asked for a CBI probe against Ajit Pawar based on Sachin Waje's letter. Though both- the BJP and NCP down-played the dragging of Ajit Pawar’s name in the case, insiders say that a lot is cooking in Maharashtra’s “unworkable” ruling alliance. The BJP high command seem to be veering round to the view that any alliance with the NCP will not be in the larger interest of the party either in Maharashtra or the country as a whole. The one-day wonder experiment is better be buried and the BJP should launch a full throttled attack on the NCP. Whether any arrangement with the Sena is arrived at or not is a secondary issue. Thus, the twin actions are part of this strategy. Whether this action will result in any future alliance with the Shiv Sena or not, is yet to be seen. PM Modi has taken the Maharashtra affairs in his own hands now and he has the habit of throwing surprises.

BJP’s UP Waterloo

The BJP leadership is extremely worried about UP Assembly polls due next year. Though polls are taking place in Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur too. But BJP’s watershed moment will be what happens next in the “Ulta Pradesh”. The hearts of the Opposition leaders are gladdened after the shock defeat of BJP in West Bengal and Mamata’s tumultuous return in the most ugly poll battles. The BJP had many handicaps in West Bengal, the foremost being the language barrier. None of the top BJP campaigners was familiar with the local language. The BJP had not projected anybody as its CM face and it had no grass root presence either in villages. However, they forget that UP is not West Bengal. Here, the BJP is already ruling the state and Yogi Adityanath is a tough CM. His graph went up in UP ever since the message went around that he did not buckle under the pressure of Central leadership. Secondly, the BJP has a battery of local leaders and no outsider tag can be fixed. In West Bengal, the BJP had a fierce and personally honest adversary like Mamata. Despite best efforts, she could not be dislodged through defection or other means. In UP, the Opposition leaders have all sorts of corruption charges being probed by CBI, ED, Income-Tax and others.

In the given scenario, the UP Assembly poll may be as polarized as we witnessed in West Bengal. It is also gradually emerging that Akhilesh Yadav of Samajwadi Party will emerge as the rallying point of the Opposition and Congress, RLD and others will come a cropper. The Jat community will go against the BJP due to farmers’ agitation and may lean towards Akhilesh Yadav along with the Yadavs and Muslims. Even Mayawati may not be able to swing the SCs’ votes as she used to in the past. These factors are worrying the BJP high command despite BJP being on the strong footing. The outcome will have a bearing on the Presidential poll due July 2022 too. Thus, a lot is at stake in UP for the BJP and PM Modi.

Uttarakhand: A new pain in the neck

While mystery continues to shroud as to why sitting Uttarakhand CM Trivendra Singh Rawat was shown the door in a mid-night coup by the high command, the incumbent Tirath Singh Rawat finding it difficult to choose his Assembly seat. He has to get elected as an MLA before September 9. He can contest from Gangotri or Haldwani. Both fell vacant after the demise of sitting MLAs due to Covid. Trivendra Singh Rawat can also be asked to vacate his Doiwala seat and Tirath Singh can contest from there. But Tirath Singh is scared of contesting a byelection in the current adverse political scenario. The Election Commission is quiet and so is BJP high command.

The New “King-Makers”

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The New “King-Makers”

50 MP s of BJD, TRS, YSR make new PM 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Feb 6

If pollsters believe that Mamata Banerjee (TMC) or N Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) or Mayawati (BSP) will be the “king Maker” in a hung Lok Sabha after the 2019 polls, they may be sadly mistaken.

The new King Makers on the horizon are three non-aligned parties; Biju Janata Dal (Odisha), YSR Congress (Andhra Pradesh), and Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (Telangana) who are likely to get 45-50 Lok Sabha seats and play a crucial role in the formation of a new government if the BJP is restricted to 200 seats mark.

These three parties have decided to stay neutral and go it alone in the Lok Sabha polls. According to pollsters, YSR Congress is virtually sweeping the state of Andhra Pradesh which has 25 Lok Sabha seats. The YSR Congress is an off-shoot of the Congress Party and was formed when Y S Jaganmohan Reddy revolted after the tragic death of his father in a plane crash. He is expected to win at least 15-17 Lok Sabha seats. One of the reasons for Chandrababu Naidu to quit the NDA was his suspicion that BJP is hob-nobbing with the YSR Congress. Another indication of YSR Congress's friendly ties with the BJP is that Prashant Kishore is working with the party as its poll strategist. Jagan Mohan Reddy has already given Kishore a huge commercial space at Banzara Hills and he is running his poll campaign. K Chandrarao Rao is a known Modi Bhakt.

Similarly, the TRS headed by Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao is expected to win 15 Lok Sabha seats out of 17. He recently swept the Assembly polls and showed his popularity with the voters. The Congress and the BJP are contesting all 17 seats in the state. But pollsters believe that both the parties will draw a blank.

The Biju Janata Dal headed by Odisha Chief Minister is likely to win anywhere between 15-17 seats. During the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJD had won 20 out of 21 seats while the BJP won one seat and the Congress drew a blank. The BJP is so desperate to placate Naveen Patnaik that it dumped B J Panda, who had resigned his seat to join the BJP. Panda is now sulking and left high & dry. Even Prime Minister Modi who was toying with the idea of contesting from Puri Lok Sabha seat in Odisha and take on Pantaik decided to look the other way.

The fact that Naveen Patnaik's sister Gita Mehta was offered Padma Shri by Modi, though she declined later citing wrong political message, is an indication that there is some tacit understanding between BJD and BJP.

The third indication of bon homie is that the CBI has gone silent in Odisha though BJD leaders were equally involved in the Chit Funds scam.

So this block of 50 Lok Sabha seats in a house of 543 will play a very crucial role if the BJP doesn't cross the 200 seats mark. The NDA parties (Shiv Sena, Janata Dal (U), LJP, Apna Dal, Akali Dal, AIADMK) are expected to get another 25-30 seats. Thus, PM Modi will need new “King Makers” to chip in a post-poll scenario.

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Rahul calls urgent meeting on UP

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul calls urgent meeting on UP 

Congress may Contest 20-22 LS seats

Mayawati says “Left two seats so that BJP doesn't tie-down Rahul to Amethi”

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan 12

Congress president Rahul Gandhi has called an urgent meeting to take a stock of the political situation in UP where the party has been left with with only two seats by the SP-BSP leaders.

Ghulam Nabi Azad, Leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha and incharge of UP affairs and Raj Babbar, president UP unit have been will brief Rahul Gandhi after taking stock of the situation in Lucknow  tomorrow. 

Rahul Gandhi will be returning from Dubai where he had gone to address a massive meeting of the NRIs which is considered his best ever show on foreign soil. Before going to Dubai, Rahul Gandhi had told Gulf News that his party can do “very interesting things” in UP and had asserted that it would be a “mistake to “underestimate” his party, the SP-BSP just did the same today.

But the SP and BSP had done exactly that and declared that only two seats -Amethi and Rae Bareli – will be left for the Congress. The Congress leadership had signals to the SP-BSP leaders that it would be happy to be contented with even 8 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats. It had come second in second in five Lok Sabha seats in 2014 Lok Sabha polls and had strong presence in another 9 seats. The Congress was keen that some of its senior and your leaders who had done better in 2014 be accommodated in the alliance. However, the SP-BSP leaders stood their ground.

But Mayawati's one comment today at the press conference in Lucknow may still be music to the ears of Rahul Gandhi when she said, “We have left these two seats for Congress so that the BJP doesn't tie-down Rahul Gandhi to Amethi.”

Obviously, Mayawati has kept the doors open for the largest party of the Opposition for any post-poll understanding or even future adjustment of seats during the coming months in UP and elsewhere.

However, insiders in the Congress say that the party will field its candidates in 20 Lok Sabha seats where it has sizable presence of votes. Though UP Congress leaders want that the party should contest all 80 seats. However, Rahul Gandhi's objective in 2019 Lok Sabha polls was articulated by him in the Gulf News interview which was first in recent months where he said, “Our first aim is to defeat Mr Narendra Modi. And so there are states where we are very strong and we are the primary party in the state and in those states we are contesting the BJP directly. There are states where there are possible alliances — Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Bihar — where we are working out an alliance formula. We are an ideological party. We fight based on ideology. There are very interesting things that the Congress party can do in Uttar Pradesh that we are working on.”

He had said the Congress idea is very powerful for Uttar Pradesh. “So, we are very confident of our ability in Uttar Pradesh and I think we will surprise people.”

However, his statement did not reach the SP-BSP leadership leaving him with a choice to contest 20-22 odd seats.

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Top Opposition leaders to attend swearing-in-ceremonies tomorrow

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Top Opposition leaders to attend swearing-in-ceremonies tomorrow

AAP to join the G-21 celebrations 

Rahul, Manmohan Singh, Sharad Pawar, Naidu, Kumaraswamy, Stalin to attend

Sonia to skip, Mayawati to send representative to Bhopal only  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec. 16

The swearing-in-ceremonies of three Congress Chief Ministers at Jaipur, Bhopal & Raipur tomorrow will herald a new era in Opposition unity when leaders of G-21 parties will travel to all three destinations. The G-21 is nick-named as the group of 21 Opposition parties who have come together to dislodge the NDA from the centre in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. Significantly, the untouchable Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been formally invited by the Congress to witness the swearing-in-ceremonies. Andhra Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu and JD (S) leader and Karnataka Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy along with his father H D Deve Gowda will attend the swearing-in-ceremony at all the three places.

As per plans, Ashok Gehlot will take oath of office tomorrow at 10.30 at Jaipur while Kamal Nath will be sworn in at 1.30 pm at Bhopal. Bhupesh Baghel will take oath at Raipur at 4.30 or 5 pm. Congress president Rahul Gandhi and former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh along with many opposition leaders including Sharad Pawar and Praful Patel, CPM's Sitaram Yechury, D Raja of CPI and others will fly in a chartered aircraft to all three destinations. Mayawati of BSP has expressed her inability to witness any swearing-in-ceremony. Following her was SP's Akhilesh Singh Yadav who will stay put in Lucknow. But both the parties will send their representatives to Bhopal where they have extended unconditional support.

Sonia Gandhi will not attend any of the swearing-in-ceremonies either due to health reasons. But M K Stalin of the DMK will join the events. All Congress Chief Ministers including Capt Amrinder Singh and other leaders will also be in toe there.

The Congress wants to show case the swearing-in- ceremonies as the victory of the Opposition parties and trying hard that BSP and SP should join the governments. 

ends  

Pawar throws Maharashtra bait to Mayawati

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive report 

Pawar throws Maharashtra bait to Mayawati

Wants her to be Dalit face in the state

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 31

A new political script is being written in Maharashtra by NCP president Sharad Pawar and if it goes as per plans, Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati will play a crucial role in the months to come in the state.

The possibilities of Sharad Pawar and Mayawati holding their first joint rally in the Vidharbha region are being explored. The broad contours of this proposal were discussed between Sharad Pawar and Mayawati when the two met last week here. In fact, Sharad Pawar took an unusual step when he decided to drive down to the Gurudwara Rakabganj office of Bahujan Samaj Party to meet Mayawati. Details of this 60-minute meeting are now surfacing slowly and Sharad Pawar is keen to mobilise the Dalits in Maharashtra in a big way.

The NCP supremo is of the considered view that the Republican Party of India has split into various factions and have lost their credibility with the voters in the state. Another prominent Dalit leader Prakash Ambedkar is unwilling to join the Congress-NCP alliance in the state, though efforts were made by the NCP leadership in this regard. Though his own base has dwindled considerably, he is still a respectable face. But his unwillingness forced Sharad Pawar to look for alternatives.

It was in this context that Sharad Pawar decided to talk to Mayawati if she was keen to play a major role by joining the mega alliance of the NCP and Congress. Mayawati's BSP has strong pockets of influence in the Vidharbha region and other areas too. This major vote bank can be channelized if Mayawati is introduced as part of the alliance and give a major fillip to the anti-BJP vote bank. The consolidation of Dalits would be possible as Mayawati is emerging as their national face.

It is not clear whether Sharad Pawar discussed the new role of Mayawati in Maharashtra with the Congress or not. But Rahul Gandhi had held three rounds of talks with Sharad Pawar and discussed alliances across the country. On all the occasions, Rahul Gandhi drove down to the residence of Sharad Pawar. But when it came to Mayawati, the Maratha leader chose to visit her and wants her to seal alliances early. Pawar's bait to Mayawati to play a crucial role in Maharashtra is tempting as Mayawati is working hard to expand her base outside UP. Pawar was not available for comments and Mayawati is always elusive.

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Fly on the Wall : How Piyush Goyal took G K Pillai to task !

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

How Piyush Goyal took G K Pillai to task !

The mighty chairman of the Duty Drawback Committee of the Finance Ministry, G K Pillai had a taste of interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal recently. It was a Sunday when Goyal summoned a meeting in his office to resolve the long-pending issue of refunds to garment exporters. Textiles Minister Smriti Irani was also called in along with top officials and exporters to long pending problem. It emerged during the meeting that the issue is to resolved by the G K Pillai Committee and its report is awaited. “So all of you are suffering because the report is pending ?” wondered Goyal as top Finance ministry officials nodded in affirmative. Goyal asked for Pillai's mobile and dialed himself. When Pillai picked up the phone, he told Goyal that he was driving the car. Goyal politely requested him to park the car on the roadside as he wants to discuss something important. Remember Pillai has been a very seasoned bureaucrat and was Commerce & Home secretary. He was appointed by Arun jaitley as chairman of the committee to resolve the problem of garment exporters whose duty drawback to the tune of Rs 6000 crores is held up. Goyal asked him if it would be possible for him to submit the report within the next ten days. Pillai was taken aback but promised to do so. Before GST was introduced, garment exporters used to get refunds ranging from 2.9% to 3.9% of the freight-on-board value of products. Since most of the state levies, including central sales tax, have been scrapped in the GST regime, the government decided to reduce it to an interim rate of 0.39% (up to September 2017). But exporters protested saying why shall they be penalized. In fact, they wanted input tax credit on the GST paid on job work and stock transfer where drawback isn’t available. The interim report came and within days, Goyal gave the much-needed relief earning laurels from the industry. The industry watchers say it is unusual for the ministers in the Modi government to function in this manner.

Pawar's pep-talk to Rahul

Congress president Rahul Gandhi has found virtues in NCP supremo Sharad Pawar and is a frequent caller whenever both are in town. Last week, Rahul drove to Pawar's Akbar Road residence and held a marathon on prevailing political situation in the country. The meeting was kept a closely guarded secret and even after the event became public, no one had a clue as to what transpired between the two. The Fly learns that Maharashtra was on the table and Rahul wanted to pick Pawar's brain on prevailing political situation in the country and how things are moving. It was at this juncture that Pawar reported to have suggested that Congress being the leading Opposition party should take the lead in sealing alliances in states. Pawar also said that a victory here should not bring in complacency. The unity is required in Opposition ranks from top to bottom and effective synergy is needed at the booth level. Pawar also told Rahul that Modi is capable of springing a surprise on the Opposition by advancing Lok Sabha polls to November-December. If the alliances and adjustments of seats are sealed in time, it will help the entire Opposition to take on the NDA in time. While the Congress-NCP have agreed in principle to contest Lok Sabha polls in alliance in Maharashtra, the Congress is taking its own sweat time in clinching such arrangements in other major states.

KejriCare VS ModiCare

While Most of the states have fallen in line and agreed to implement the ModiCare scheme, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has stood his grounds. He says that his Health for All scheme is far more superior than the one proposed by Modi government's much-touted ModiCare. Kejriwal says he doesn't need health insurance cover of Rs 5 lakhs per year per family at a premium of Rs 1000-1050. Why bring in insurance companies when the Delhi government directly provides health facilities to all ?. He has trashed the Ayushman Bharat-National Health Protection Mission (AB-NHPM) scheme as middlemen and touts will benefit. He claimed that the Delhi government's DAK (Delhi Arogya Kosh) highly successful and benefiting the citizens of the Capital in a big way. Its a unique scheme under which all kinds of diagnostic tests and treatment and medicines are free once a doctor of Delhi government hospital recommends. Even the treatment/hospitalization in free. The Delhi government has agreements with 25 Delhi private hospitals and diagnostic centers where patients don't have to pay and all expenses will be paid for by the government directly. Kejriwal says ModiCare should adopt KejriCare.

Mayawati wants pan-India alliance with Congress

The Congress leadership is Madhya Pradesh- Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia- have issued public statements favouring an alliance with the BSP in the Assembly polls. Similar sentiments have been expressed by the Congress leadership in Chhattisgarh too. But Mayawati is keeping quiet and has not uttered a word. She is talking to all the parties all the time but not the Congress. She clinched an alliance with H D Deve Gowda's JD (S) in Karnataka and opened her account. The JD (S) is willing to contest Lok Sabha polls in alliance with BSP as well. The photo ops at Benguluru where Sonia Gandhi and Mayawati hugging may have gone viral. But there is no alliance/adjustment of seats talks between the Congress and Mayawati so far. Both are keen and waiting who to bell the cat. Mayawati, however, has signaled that she would like to have pan-India alliance with Congress not only in UP but also in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh. She even wants a pie in Gujrat and Karnataka too. If she wants three seats each in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi, she is eyeing four Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra and five in Madhya Pradesh besides two each in Chhattisgarh and Gujrat. The Congress wants 20 Lok Sabha seats in UP and Mayawati is not willing to give more than 5-7 seats. Therefore, the situation is very fluid and no one is willing to initiate a dialogue.

Fly on the Wall : Mayawati, A tough player

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mayawati, A tough player 

The terms and conditions of political alliance arrived at between BSP supremo Mayawati and Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Singh are unfolding now causing acute embarrassment to all & sundry. The two leaders agreed that this alliance is limited to Parliamentary polls in May 2019 and not for the Assembly elections due in 2022. That Mayawati's party will contest 45 Lok Sabha seats while the SP will be given 35 seats. The constituencies will be decided is due course but the number is non-negotiable. Akhilesh Singh requested Buaji that the line of communications should remain open to which Mayawati nodded in agreement. However, Mayawati is now not available for talks and operates through intermediaries. Even when the question of putting up a joint Opposition candidate for Kairana Lok Sabha seat came up, Mayawati refused to meet. RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary wanted to contest the seat. Akhilesh Singh invited him to Lucknow to sort out the issue. Mayawati, instead of meeting them, sent a message that ticket be given to a woman Muslim leader who may contest on the RLD symbol. Since the Jats who dominate Kairana constituency, don't vote for Muslims, it will be a test of RLD's popularity among the Jats, she conveyed through messengers. If the RLD's Muslim candidate wins, it would be a proof that Jats voted for the RLD candidate. Left with no choice, RLD accepted the condition as the BJP is unwilling do any business with the RLD as its two tradition seats - Kairana & Baghpat – were captured by the BJP in 2014. 

Congress' pipe dream

Irrespective of Congress president Rahul Gandhi's declaration that he would be Prime Minister if his party emerges as the single largest party and Opposition parties come together, Mayawati is determined not to do business with the Congress. She had told Akhilesh Yadav during the seat sharing meeting that the Congress party has no political base in the state and its votes are also not transferable to the BSP or SP candidates. Sensing that Akhilesh Singh was keen to bring Congress on board, she said, “If the SP wants, it can shares seats with it from its quota of 35 seats. We are not going to spare a single seat for the Congress in UP.” Akhilesh Singh didn't react on this issue as it was he who had taken the initiative to enter into an electoral alliance with “Buaji”. He had  and even touched her feet during the first meeting to mollify her. Obviously, Mayawati is adopting a tough posture with the objective to negotiate Lok Sabha seats with the Congress in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and other states. The Congress wants 15 Lok Sabha seats in UP which neither SP nor the BSP will be willing to spare. Therefore, Rahul Gandhi's dream of making the single largest party cannot be achieved unless SP-BSP are willing to do business with it.  

BJP changes tack, avoid attacking Siddha, targets Rahul

After initially attacking Karnataka Chief Minister Siddharamiah and calling him names, the BJP leaders changed tack.  Modi had bitterly attacked Siddha while launching Karnataka poll campaign terming the state's Congress-led government a " Sidha rupaiya sarkar" (a government that directly takes money). BJP's leader after leader targeted Siddharamiah of looting the state and used all sorts of adjectives. But Modi suddenly changed tack and gone gone full tilt at Rahul Gandhi. Its the Congress president who is now bearing the brunt of  Modi's broadsides at election rallies of late. 

It is learnt that surveys had revealed that Kannadiga sub-nationalism was working on the ground and the Chief Minister was succeeding in invoking the regional pride. Siddaramaiah's efforts to hold up Modi and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath who are even seen as North Indians attacking a south Indian leader.

Thus, the campaign was turned into Modi VS Rahul and the PM is avoiding locking horns with Siddaramaiah. The BJP even started playing down the corruption charges against Siddha as BJP's own Chief Ministerial candidate commands no better record on this score. In fact Siddha is proving a nightmare for BJP on twitter and scoring with the each passing day in campaigning. Irrespective of the results, Siddha has emerged as the leader par excellence. 

Battle over re-naming college turns bitter

A relatively junior BJP leader who was once a party spokesman, Amitabh Sinha has challenged the authority of Human Resources Development Minister Prakash Javadekar. Sinha who was made chairman of the governing body of Dyal Singh Evening College, changed the name of the historic college as  Vandemataram Dyal Singh College. Since this created a political crisis, the Minister told him to reverse the decision. However, Sinha curtly told Javadekar that the minister had no locus standi on the issue. This has acutely embarrassed Prakash Javadekar who is camping in Karnataka as incharge of the BJP's campaign. Javadekar had assured the Akali Dal, a key ally of the BJP, that the sentiments of Sikhs would be taken care of. He even held a high-level meeting of the higher education secretary, the then chairman of the University Grants Commission, the vice-chancellor of Delhi University and other officials. Amitabh Sinha was told to hold a meeting of the Governing body to reverse the decision. The virtual revolt by Amitabh Sinha has caused a flutter. Javadekar reportedly complained to BJP Chief Amit Shah in this regard. The matter may be resolved after the polls. But it certainly brought out chinks within the ruling BJP.

A hidden agenda Behind arrest  

The arrest of Upendra Rai, a former editor-in-chief of the Sahara TV by the CBI caused ripples in political circles. It transpires that a case under stringent Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) may be invoked by the Enforcement Director shortly as the government is keen to fix Rai's political patrons. The Modi dispensation believes that Rai was able to make a killing due to his close links in the Finance and Home ministries. It transpires that he deposited Rs 57 crores in his various bank accounts and withdrew Rs 53 crores within one year period. The CBI went after Rai after Rajeshwar Singh, a senior officer of the Enforcement Director, lodged a complaint to the CBI. Though Rai was once close to Rajeshwar Singh but both fell out. It was Rajeshwar Singh who was reportedly promoting Rai and the latter had free access to key government departments including the ED and CBI. The tiff turned so bitter that Rai complained to the CBI against Rajeshwar Singh and a Preliminary Enquiry (PE)  registered by the CBI. As the probe began, Rajeshwar Singh went up to the Supreme Court and obtained a stay against the CBI probe. Later, Rajeshwar Singh lodged a counter complaint of blackmail and extortion against Rai with the CBI. The end result was that CBI registered an FIR against Rai and arrested him. Now the PMLA is being slapped. It is now learnt that the Modi dispensation wants to know who were the recipients of Rs 53 crores Rai withdrew from banks on various dates. The government suspects that Rai had links with Karti Chidambaram. The Modi government feels that Rai had the support of certain senior Congress leaders who held key positions in the government during the UPA regime.

Fly on the Wall : Cabinet reshuffle round the corner !

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Cabinet reshuffle round the corner !

BJP's senior general secretary Ram Madhav may have missed the Rajya Sabha bus. But the speed with which the party gave him charge of Andhra Pradesh is an indication that BJP is working on a counter-offensive in the state. It transpires that Andhra BJP Chief K Haribabu may be brought in the Union Cabinet to represent the state as it has no representation after the exit of the TDP. There is also a proposal to bring in D Pruandhareswari, daughter of late N T Rama Rao who had joined the BJP long back. Since she was against Chandra Babu Naidu she failed to grow in the BJP. But her stars are shining now with the BJP parting company with the TDP. The party also brought in GVL Narasimha Rao into the Rajya Sabha who hails from Andhra. Party insiders say that the Cabinet reshuffle will take place after the Karnataka Assembly polls and some grass root leaders may be brought in the Cabinet in the wake of mounting pressure from certain states. A large number of ministers have been holding dual charge and since Lok Sabha polls are only a year away, Cabinet expansion has to take place for political balancing.

How Yogi was put in his place

It has now emerged that UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was denied the privilege of choosing a candidate of his choice from Gorakhpur lok Sabha seat. There is no denying the fact that last minute unity between the two arch rivals – SP & BSP- had surprised the BJP and situation was uncomfortable. Yogi wanted the party high command to give ticket a person of his choice. Instead, the high command sought three names from him. The Yogi sent the names but insisted that his first preference be accommodated. But to his surprise, state incharge of BJP Sunil Bansal recommended the name of Upendra Dutt Shukla. It transpires that same thing happened in Phulpur where Sunil Bansal vetoed the recommendation of Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. Insiders in the BJP say that the party's defeat served two political purposes; first being that Yogi who was flying high, has been grounded. “A person who cannot retain his own home constituency, how can he be brought in to the Parliamentary Board?” said a senior functionary. The BJP's parliamentary board has one vacancy after the elevation of M Venkiah Naidu as Vice President.

Jaitley's tough conditions delay Kejri apology

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is making frantic efforts to persuade Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to accept his unconditional apology and close the defamation case. It transpires that AAP's newly elected Rajya Sabha MP N D Gupta who is a noted chartered accountant, has held several meetings with Jaitley to sort out the problem. But Jaitley is in no mood as arguments in the trial court had been completed and judgment is awaited. Secondly, Jaitley is reported to have put some stiff conditions such as that Kejriwal should apologise from the same public platform which was used to make allegations against him and his daughter. Jaitley doesn't want merely written apology but a public apology on TV channels and at a public meeting. Jaitey is no Nitin Gadkari or Punjab Akali Dal leader Majithia who accepted Kejriwal's apology meekly. The last word on Jaitley-Kejri saga is yet to be written.

What's cooking between Rahul & Sharad Pawar ?

Congress president Rahul Gandhi is batting on the front foot and calling on party leaders seeking their cooperation. If sources are to be believed, he has spoken to most of the Opposition leaders over the phone including Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Sharad Yadav, Sitaram Yechury and others. But he held long parleys with Sharad Pawar seeking his cooperation and understand shape of things to come. It is clear that Congress-NCP will contest the Lok Sabha polls together and Pawar gave an in-principle approval for the same in Maharashtra. Both the parties will revert to the same seat-sharing arrangement that existed between the two parties before they parties company in 2014. The Chief Minister will be from the Congress party while NCP will have the post of Deputy Chief Minister in the event of alliance winning the state. The contours of alliance will be decided at a later date. But Rahul wanted Pawar to prevent division of Opposition votes in the states and expressed Congress willingness to make sacrifices.

No UPA type front in the offing

Sonia Gandhi may be holding parleys with the Opposition leaders over dinners. There may also be a talk that Sonia Gandhi may form a front of like-minded parties on the pattern of United Progressive Alliance (UPA). But Rahul Gandhi is in no hurry to create such a front. Rahul Gandhi feels that no such front is needed at this juncture and Opposition parties should work quietly. Secondly, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is working over-time to create a third front and speaking to regional satraps. While Sharad Pawar sees the light once again at the end of the tunnel in 2019 polls in the emergence of a third front. But having burnt his fingers in the past, he is sitting pretty and trying to expand NCP's base outside Maharashtra. For him, Maharashtra is the key and other states are a bonus. But Mamata Banerjee is banking on Pawar to create a third front as Mulayam Singh Yadav has been pushed into the background by his son who is busy in stitching alliance with Mayawati in UP. Akhilesh Yadav has signaled that Congress cannot be given more than 8-10 Lok Sabha seat in any seat-sharing arrangement for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The RLD may get 2-3 Lok Sabha seats while one seat may be spared for Sharad Yadav.

Two hour delay caused a flutter in HRD ministry

No one was in doubt that all the sitting eight Union Ministers will be re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha. But things didn't happen as contemplated. When general secretary incharge of BJP's Parliamentary Board and Union health Minister J P Nadda issued a press release at 9 pm, it contained the names of only seven ministers re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha. The name of savvy HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar was missing from the official press release. All hell broke and frantic calls were made to inquire about the fate of Javadekar. There was no response as to who will dare ask the PM or the BJP president Amit Shah. However, within two hours, second press release was issued announcing the name of Javadekar from Maharashtra. He was told that the party delayed the announcement as it was in the process of deciding whether he should be sent to UP or his home state of Maharashtra. However, the two hour gap was enough to cause a political flutter.

Fly on the Wall : Modi prods for NaMo App, MP s not worried

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group


Fly on the Wall for Friday publication 

Harish Gupta 

Modi prods for NaMo App, MP s not worried

Ever since Prime Minister Modi castigated his party Mps for not responding to his “Namaste” every morning, there is virtual panic among them. When Modi disclosed that of the 330 BJP Mps only five respond to his NaMo App daily. Top ministers present at the meeting were sheepish while others rushed to download the NaMo App so that they join the “Namaste” club. While the BJP opened a special counter at the parliamentary party office to enable the Mps to download the App, the Lok Sabha & Rajya Sabha internet cell also went out of its way to help the Mps. Some of the Mps are using not one but three phones; one for people in their respective constituencies, the other for party leaders and third for private use. Secondly, they have at least ten What's App groups they have to deal with every minute. The Lok Sabha & Rajya Sabha secretariats have one group for their Mps, the other is for BJP parliamentary party, the third is MPLAD, fourth is parliamentary party committees and so on and so forth. In addition, they also have to deal with the problems of family and constituents. As if this was not enough they also tell Modi ji and Amit Shah desperately as to what they have done in their constituencies, upload photos of their visits, update on PM's 20 welfare schemes etc etc. Majority of Mps are not well-versed in technology either and find it difficult to communicate. They cannot hire the services of a full time technical hand as their salaries and perks has not been enhanced. Some of the vocal BJP Lok Sabha MP s made it clear that they will not reply on NaMo App come what may. “If our performance is to be judged by whether we do Namaste every day, then we are better off without a ticket,” said at least five Lok Sabha MP s belonging to Haryana, Maharashtra and even Rajasthan. Surely, the PM may be getting better feedback. At least three ministers say that they don't use smart phones.

Mayawati plays pricey

BSP Chief Mayawati has signaled that she will neither contest in a byelection for the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat and nor seek re-nomination for the Rajya Sabha seat. The byelection for the Lok Sabha seat can be announced by the Election Commission anytime and biennial poll for Rajya Sabha is due this April. The Samajwadi Party and Congress have sent feelers to the BSP that “Behanji” contest a common Opposition candidate from the seat vacated by the BJP MP Keshav Prasad Maurya who resigned to become deputy Chief Minister. Mayawati has not responded but her party sources say that opposition unity cannot be a onetime affair. Secondly, she doesn't want to contest in a byelection. With regard to Rajya Sabha seat, Mayawati said she had quit the Rajya Sabha to fight for the Dalit rights and the battle has ended. She will keep away, say party sources. Perhaps, Mayawati is playing pricey. Mayawati has given any clue whether her party will support the Samajwadi Party in the Phulpur and Gorakhpur bye-polls.

New Solicitor-General ? Modi knows

The appointment of new Solicitor General has been hanging in the air for months after Ranjit Kumar quit the post months ago. Ranjit Kumar quit a couple of months after Attorney General Mukul Rohtagi quit without assigning any reasons. It is said both were uncomfortable and could have stayed on if persuaded. But finding successor to Ranjit Kumar has raised eyebrows in legal & political fraternity. After great difficulty the government was able to find new AG, K K Venugopal. But the new Solicitor General is nowhere in sight. It was speculated that Gujrat's Advocate General Kamal Trivedi be brought to Delhi. But the idea did not find favour with powers that be. Then the name of senior advocate Rakesh Trivedi cropped up. It is learnt that some of the senior advocates considered close to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley didn't find favour somewhere in the Law Ministry. The Law & IT Minister, Ravi Shankar Prasad wouldn't say anything except that the new SG will be appointed shortly. There are a couple of vacancies for the post of Additional solicitor general as well. It now transpires that a section in the government favours promoting Tushar Mehta as the new Solicitor General. Mehta also hails from Gujrat and is ASG for almost three years now. It is said that the file pending somewhere in the Prime Minister's Office.

Rahul Gandhi to travel to West Asia

If Prime Minister Modi goes to Davos to address the plenary on January 24 to woo the global investors, Congress president Rahul Gandhi plans to travel to West Asian countries. It is learnt that he had finalized his plans to visit Dubai and Bahrain during the year-end. But he had to change his plans in view of delay in Parliament's Winter session dates. Secondly, he didn't want to give an elbow room to the BJP which always harps on his foreign visits. In fact, Rahul Gandhi is perfecting the art of Modi who garnered support from NRIs long before the announcement of Lok Sabha polls. This biggest constituency was never nursed by the Congress for the past 20 years by the Congress and even her mother Sonia Gandhi. He thinks its a barren land which was wisely cultivated by the BJP and its leader Modi. Realising the tremendous response that Rahul Gandhi received of his interaction at the Berkeley university back home in India, Rahul Gandhi has decided to target NRIs as a policy. Sam Pitroda is his foreign policy adviser and none in the foreign affairs cell of the AICC is aware of what's happening.

Fly on the Wall : Mayawati as PM candidate ?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mayawati as PM candidate ?

Mayawati's frontal attack on the BJP alleging that it is hatching a conspiring to eliminate her is the first direct hint of her joining ranks with other Opposition parties during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BSP has mostly kept away from the 17-parties Opposition parties' conclaves. She was quiet for some time and some attributed this silence to Enforcement Directorate (ED) going after her brother Anand in the Rs 1200 crores money laundering case. With Mayawati blasting the Modi government is the first signal of Opposition unity taking a positive turn. It transpires that Rahul Gandhi is sending out signals that he is willing to do anything to dislodge Modi. Mayawati thinks she can play a role at the national level. Akhilesh Yadav is working out a barter deal with Mayawati quietly under which he will support her for the PM's post while she will back him for the CM's post. Lalu Yadav is also ready for Mayawati. The BSP has following amongst the Dalits outside UP in several North Indian states. One may hear more news on this front sooner than expected. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has also been nursing the Prime Ministerial ambitions. With Mayawati throwing her hat in the ring, one will have to watch. 

Hooda may be in the dock, thanks to CBI

After M L Tayal, its the turn of another top official related to former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda to face the music. The CBI is now tightening its grip around Chhatar Singh who is now a member of the UPSC. He was chief administrator of HUDA and principal secretary to Hooda after Tayal retired and facing CBI cases for corruption. The case against Chhatar Singh is strong and may put Hooda in serious trouble. The Modi government helped Hooda by not charging him under the PMLA in the National Herald case. But the case against these top aides of Hooda is so strong that the CBI is unable to dilute them. It is learnt that Chhatar singh may even be asked to resign from the UPSC. Hooda had ensured that Chhatar Singh is appointed member UPSC during the UPA regime after retirement.

Rajnath not consulted on NIA's new chief

When Y C Modi was appointed was appointed as the new chief of the NIA, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh was in the dark until the file landed on his desk from the PMO. Normally, the file to fill vacancies with regard to departments and police organisations directly under the Ministry of Home Affairs are sent to the Cabinet Secretary by the Home Minister. The NIA is directly under the MHA and its Chief Sharad Kumar was to retire on October 30. Normally, announcements with regard to such postings are done 15-20 days prior. But in this case, the PMO called up the Home Secretary Rajiv Gauba and asked him to send the proposal which he did without losing time. Gauba was also asked to send the name for the successor of SSB Chief also. But before Gauba could recover, the file came back in no time clearing the name of Y C Modi. Rajnath Singh who is also a member of the Cabinet Committee for Appointment (ACC), was taken aback when the file was put up to him for information and subsequent action.

Scared BJP delinks Gurdaspur LS Bye-poll with others

The BJP has de-linked the Gurdaspur Lok Sabha byelection with that of Gorakhpur and Phulpur. Though Yogi Adityanath had quit the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat and Keshav Prasad Maurya had quit the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat on August 6 itself, the Election Commission didn't hold the LS polls in these constituencies. When asked, a senior Election Commission official said that byelections are to be held only on the recommendation of the state government. Since the Punjab Government recommended the holding of bypoll in Gurdaspur and six months mandatory period was also expiring, we are holding the same. But in the case of UP LS seat, there is time. It is, however, up to the state government to take a call when it would like to hold. The state government indicated that it will contemplate after the festival season. It is said that the BJP doesn't want to test its popularity in UP at this juncture and delaying bye-polls. There are two vacancies in Rajasthan (Alwar & Ajmer) and one in Telangana.

Kejriwal Went to Igatpuri, lessons to keep quiet

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal quietly went into silent mode even after winning the Bawana Assembly seat in a tough byelection. This was a surprise to all in the Capital. He did not react when BJP was routed in the Delhi University Students Union polls. It now transpires that he opted to go to Igatpuri in Nashik and stayed at the Vipaasana Centre for ten days. Though he had been going to Bengaluru for his throat treatment and practice silence, habits die hard. He is back on twitter after ten days and roar in Gujrat shortly.

Didi may challenge Modi in 2019

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Since Narendra Modi bulldozed the parliament in May 2014, and repeated the feat three years later in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state, the opposition is overwrought with frustration. With the chances of its electoral recovery rather distant, it is unable to paper over the lengthening, and deepening, lines of its internal fissures. Like Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s exit from its camp; his JD(U) facing an existential crisis; or the CPI(M), which is convulsing with internal dissensions so deep that its general secretary Sitaram Yechury fails to get his party’s nod for returning to the Rajya Sabha with Congress support.

The opposition is hamstrung for other reasons too. Faced with BJP, RSS and their ideological challenge, the traditional ‘secular’ politician seems to have lost the plot. His response to incidents of serious cultural onslaught is feeble, at best. For example, no opposition party has worked out a coherent strategy to combat the Hindutva groups nursing their private militia in the name of cow vigilantes. They attack cow vigilantism as though it were the handiwork of extreme bigots sheltered by the Hindutva groups. But they have failed to present it as an integral part of an agenda to turn the religious minorities into second class citizens. Their bankruptcy surfaced when Congress workers attacked a BJP leader in Chhattisgarh responsible for cows death. On the rare occasions that Congress president Sonia Gandhi, or Rahul Gandhi, the vice president, comment on contemporary issues, they fail to strike a chord. While Rahul shoots and scoots, his mother has limited grasp of India’s social and civilizational issues. BSP supremo Mayawati, always shy to venture beyond Dalit issues has become even more tongue-tied. Down south in Tamil Nadu, ruling AIADMK and two other factions are getting sucked into the BJP rather than trying to redefine themselves in India’s political landscape after the end of multi-party rule. In Maharashtra, so total is the hold of BJP that Shiv Sena, its ideological sibling and local rival for power, outshines other opposition parties. In the states where the Congress is ensconced, such as Karnataka, there is not much certainty about its continuance.

In such bleak scenario for the opposition, two things are missing—leadership and strategy. Some of the opposition parties assumed that, in fighting BJP, the best strategy would be to forget past differences with the Congress and tie up with it. In Uttar Pradesh, former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav tried it, and paid heavily for that mistake. In West Bengal, the CPI(M), by fighting the 2016 assembly election jointly with the Congress, fell into the same trap.

With the passing of years, if there is a single opposition leader to cobble up a strategy against BJP’s divisive politics, she is Mamata Banerjee. The West Bengal chief minister is a master player of the caste and sub-caste cards. In 2011, she succeeded in putting the 34-year-old CPI(M) rule to an end my mobilising the subalterns against a party which, though highly regimented, had only higher castes in its upper echelons.

Her Bengal is in BJP’s crosshairs for a long time. During CPI(M) rule, there was no entry for the Hindutva politics as the state’s poor were entirely identified with the hammer-and-sickle. BJP thought that, following the Marxists’ exit, it may be able to polarize votes.

But the BJP’s strategy against Mamata Banerjee has not succeeded so far. It brought limited dividend in 2014 with BJP getting 16 per cent votes (only two seats). But the BJP share came down to 10 per cent in the assembly elections two years later. Banerjee ruled the roost as her deft ‘salami slicing’ of the state’s huge OBC and dalit population did not allow the BJP to herd all non-Hindus under the saffron shamiana. It is a strategy that has worked.

In India, with ‘forward caste’ population estimated to be around 25 per cent (that leaves three-quarters of the population comprising the entire panoply of OBC and dalit, plus minorities), it is tough for BJP, to win elections without support from a large section of non-caste Hindus. That explains why Modi, and party president Amit Shah, have been reaching out to those on the lower rungs of the caste ladder, with a Dalit being made the President of India. Ram Vilas Paswan, a Dalit, heads the LJSP, an important partner in the ruling NDA. During his tours aimed at the 2019 general election, Shah makes it a point to have lunch (well publicised) one day in a dalit home.

In India’s social fabric of mixed hue, it is not possible to win elections on the support of one or two castes. Mayawati, for example, won elections in Uttar Pradesh whenever she could broaden her appeal beyond the jatav community of dalits to which she belongs. But Mamata Banerjee’s appeal is subtler. It works on the ‘class animosity’ among castes, thus posing a challenge to the BJP strategy of appealing to an all-embracing Hindu identity. Last year, as there were minor skirmishes between Hindus and Muslims at Dhulagarh in Howrah district, BJP bent over backwards to give it a communal tinge but the Trinamool leader used a mix of her understanding of subaltern politics, and executive power, to deny BJP any leeway.

The answer to religious identity politics is the politics of subaltern identity. Nitish Kumar realised it as he introduced the mahadalit concept and re-embraced Lalu Yadav. But he has hung up his boots in opposition politics. In today’s scenario, if Modi’s BJP can face a serious contender in 2019, it has to be from Mamata Banerjee.

Ravi Shankar Prasad interview of the week

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Interview of the Week with Ravi Shankar Prasad, Union Law & IT Minister  

Law is taking its genuine course in probes against the corrupt

We can’t look the other way in corruption cases

India is free from cyber attacks, our systems are in place

Digital payment charges are being looked into

By Harish Gupta

Lokmat: Where do you stand on Triple Talaq now that the SC has heard it ?

R S Prasad: I will not make any comment now that the SC has completed hearing on its validity. But we have stated our views very clearly. Its not an issue related to any religion or community. It relates to gender justice, gender dignity, gender equality. After nearly 70 years of India`s Independence, the issue of right to live with dignity has been raised by a big segment of country. Our view is clear; It is unconstitutional and must go.

Lokmat: What is the alternate machination if the SC strikes it down?

R S Prasad: We will have to decide after the court judgment.

Lokmat: It is said that you may come out with Muslim Marriage Act?

R S Prasad: All these things are going on. I do not wish to make any comment. But surely the government is open to have a fair mechanism if it is needed.

Lokmat: But you have doing this lip service. Your party has done nothing for Muslims in terms of giving them tickets or positions of eminence ?

R S Prasad: This concern for dignity of women is not for Muslims. What is BETI BACHALO BETI PADHAO, What is Sukanya Samridhi Yojna which I am handling as postal department minister. Why is out of almost 7 Crores transactions in MUDRA 2/3 are woman. Of the nearly 40 lakh IT employees nearly 1/3 are women.

Lokmat: I was talking about giving them political recognition by your party?

R S Prasad:  May be you have a case that we ought to give them more tickets. But there I have differences and I am happy that you asked this question. But other parties symbolism ends by giving them tickets. The real issue is of denial of empowerment of the Muslim women. These parties maintain silence when it comes to their empowerment. 

Lokmat: So you are empowering Muslim women?

R S Prasad: Obviously. Now their voice is heard. Rajiv Gandhi ultimately surrendered despite having a massive majority in the Shah Bano`s case. But the Muslim women in India have got a strong leader in Modi who stands by them in their pain and agony.

Lokmat: You are needling your political opponents one by one by using state agencies in every state and also at the Centre?

R S Prasad: Did we tell Lalu Prasad`s sons to have big land in Delhi and Patna ? Did we advise his daughter to have huge farm houses through means which are questionable?

Lokmat: You have lodged cases against Mayawati’s Brother, congress leaders in Karnataka, Himachal, Haryana and other states ?

R S Prasad: Has any one been chased without any evidence? If there is a case against a Karnataka Minister and crores of rupees are found,  you want Income Tax dept to remain quite? If Mayawati’s brother`s issue is discovered by agencies, you mean to say they should look the other way.

 Lokmat: So you are saying that your CBI, ED, DRI, IT are not going after the opposition parties.

R S Prasad: Your allegation is incorrect that’s what I can say.

Lokmat: All kinds of allegations and probes are being made against Arvind Kejriwal. But why have failed to chargesheet him?

R S Prasad: We do not interfere in the work of any of these agencies.  The law is taking its genuine course without any pressure and without resorting to any manipulation.

Lokmat: You mean the whole lot of Opposition is corrupt?

R S Prasad: There are court rulings in cases where Income Tax is probing cases against high & mighty people, you know. Now they are forming grand alliance. Its nothing but the congregation of the corrupt.

Lokmat: You are selective in acting against political class.In Maharashtra you bitterly campaigned against corruption of NCP leaders like  Ajit Pawar. But did nothing against him ?

R S Prasad: I do not have the facts of the case presently. But the legal process is on against all of  them.

Lokmat: Cyber security is one of the biggest issues and you are handling it……..

R S Prasad: Digital India is changing the face of India now. Two Crore people are on BHIM app for digital payments and more than 20 crore transactions have taken place by linking 27 crore Jan Dhan account with mobile and AADHAR. We have saved more than Rs  50000 crores by directly transferring the monies into their accounts eliminating the middlemen.

Lokmat: But why the banks are still charging higher for digital payments? It’s a great concern?

R S Prasad: There is no charge on BHIM app. The AADHAR PAY which the PM had launched, there is no charge. For other UPI apps, the cost is zero. 

Lokmat: But banks are charging more for digital payments while cash is free of charge?

R S Prasad: Its very low and we are already looking into this issue.

Lokmat: And what about the cyber attacks & security?

R S Prasad: India, fortunately, is free today except a few isolated incidents in AP and in Kerala.

Lokmat: May be India was not targeted by hackers?

R S Prasad: No, not at all. From March-April we have taken enough steps to make our systems secure because we were planning to go digital in a big way.

Lokmat: You mean to say that you had advance information about these attacks?

R S Prasad: All I can say is that we took steps to tighten digital and cyber security systems. We installed PACT system. We advised all the banks and govt. departments to put strong systems in place.

Lokmat: Controversies with regard to Aadhaar refuse to die down. P Chidambram says it was conceived for Direct Benefit Transfer Scheme and was optional?

R S Prasad: The problem of Chidambram is that he is yet to reconcile that he is no more in power. We are doing what they didn’t have the courage to do. We laid Optical fiber network for 2.5 lakh gram panchayats today while they connected less than 100 villages.  We are not making it mandatory.... section 7 says no one shall be denied the right of benefit but you must alternatively come on the AADHAAR system. Who is unhappy? The Poor ? Some people are unhappy because there are no middlemen. I am surprised at Chidambaram’ statements.

Lokmat: So the sinking feeling that Chidambram is having and expressing through his articles is only for him and his party?

R S Prasad: It is completely personal….. why it is so… I will not go into those details. The whole country knows why he is having this sinking feeling. For the Congress, in-spite of getting 44 seats...  in-spite of reduced to single digit in UP... in-spite of a washout in one election after the other, the party is unwilling to learn lessons. It is seeking space in only editorial pages.... good luck to them.

Opposition needs French lesson

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The routing of the opposition in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections by the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a stunning effect which will not subside anytime soon.

The initiative that Congress president Sonia Gandhi began since April to meet individual opposition leaders—from Sharad Pawar to CPM’s Sitaram Yechuri, both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav of Bihar, or West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee—is a direct fallout of the defeat in Uttar Pradesh.

However, it is the seemingly irresistible rise of BJP, and the anxiety that it may after all change the rules of the game of politics set in the past decades, that has spread across the length and breadth of the country. In Chennai, the possibility of matinee idol Rajanikanth carrying the flag of BJP into peninsular India has made the Opposition worried. It lent  to the birthday of nonagenarian leader K. Karunanidhi, into a matter of national urgency, on the scale of Udyog Parvin the Mahabharata. In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party leader and former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has resumed calling BSP supremo and his sworn enemy Mayawati “bua” and they are talking again directly now. Besides, unfazed by the new anti-corruption inquiries he is facing, Lalu Yadav is holding a joint rally of opposition parties in Patna on August 27, its battle cry being “BJP hatao, desh bachao”.

Nevertheless, achieving opposition unity is easier said than done. It’s because it was hopelessly disunited to begin with, so much so that the BJP could manage to come to power in 2014 due to, inter alia, its disunity. The vote share of NDA was 38 per cent yet it bagged 336 (61.87%) of the 543 Lok Sabha seats.

And now, after the UPA parties’ misfortune, their internal problems have compounded. Mayawati is no longer the monarch of her Jatav community as the Dalit youths of Saharanpur in Uttar Pradesh, have taken their destiny in their own hands instead of leaving it to BSP. They were oppressed by the rich and armed and politically influential Rajputs. Now they have formed Bhim Sena which promises to become the community’s new platform. Within SP, the Yadav family tussle involving  Akhilesh and Mulayam Singh Yadav, his father and the party’s founder, is far from being resolved. Also doubtful is the Congress’ ability to project itself any longer as the ‘natural cradle’ of potential prime ministers. Sonia Gandhi’s ‘unity luncheon’ (for selecting opposition candidate for President election), coinciding with the NDA government’s third anniversary, skipped by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, was an impressive photo-op, and just about that.

In fact, Nitish rubbed it in by abstaining from Sonia’s conclave yet meeting the Prime Minister over lunch the very next day. Pawar was present at the lunch but he’d earlier turned down Sonia’s call-in to be UPA’s presidential candidate. “The job comes with a great house but I enjoy talking to you”, he later told journalists. Obviously, the job he’s aspiring to is to lead the next government from Parliament, not Rashtrapati Bhavan. Nitish Kumar, too, has got his sight set on the prime minister’s job. In his earlier meeting with Sonia, he’d recommended a second term for Pranab Mukherjee, the outgoing President. However, he said little about the nature and leadership of a future opposition alliance. The Congress is desperately looking for an alliance with H D Deve Gowda in Karnataka. But Gowda is deeply hurt as the Congress government had put his son H D Kumaraswamy in jail. He did attend Sonia’s lunch after persuaded by Sharad Yadav and Sitaram Yechuri. But no further political deal in Karnataka.

The opposition turf has no shortage of vaulting ambition, inflated ego, or pulses racing doe to Modi’s taxmen and cops closing in on piles of allegedly ill-gotten cash. But that doesn’t a leader make. The big change that has hit the electoral process in democracies worldwide is that it has become almost entirely personality oriented, like in the presidential system, with little room for the opposition except that of “also ran”. Most recently, it has happened in France, with centrist and globalist Emmanuel Macron getting  66 per cent votes while Marine Le Pen, the right-wing populist being left with only 34 per cent. What’s noteworthy is that Macron, who had been the finance minister in the previous socialist government of Francoise Hollande (something comparable in its ineptitude and venality to the Manmohan Singh-led UPA-2), quit it, formed his fledgling party En Marche, and targeted and grabbed his bull’s-eye—the huge middle ground that’d shiver to support Hollande’s  party yet would have voted for Le Pen if there was no option.

Incidentally, Britain is heading for a similar situation as it goes to poll on Thursday, June 8. In this mid-term poll, the British voter will be caught between prime minister Theresa May’s pro-Brexit Conservative Party and the Labour under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, a rather loopy communist who worships Venezuelan ex-president the late Hugo Chavez and says if elected PM he’d nationalize mail, rail and energy firms. That’s a bit too much in a nation that still respects Margaret Thatcher, the ‘iron lady’ of privatization, and the country reshaped by her. The country became the bedrock on which two ‘new Labour’ PMs, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, could thrive. Corbyn is a hater of their ‘neo-liberalism’ while May is clearly devoid of political ideas. Therefore, it is likely that, come June 8, voters will move one way in large herds but none will be there to represent the sensible middle ground. Significantly, Macron polled 84 per cent of the top 20 per cent highest educated voters.

India did not (and does not) have a Macron-type leader primarily because it lacks enlightened voters. But that is no excuse for leaders being so bereft of ideas about the direction that India may follow. When called upon to govern states, their ideas are limited to banning alcohol, or denying land to industry. It’s not Modi’s opposition, India is waiting for his challenger.

"A" in politics but low in Economics

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

In democracy, completion of three years in power is a time for perturbation as that’s when the curse of “anti-incumbency” sets in.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is an exception. Into his fourth year in power, there is hardly any popular disgruntlement against his incumbency. It was evident in the assembly election in Uttar Pradesh last March when the BJP under Modi and party president Amit Shah succeeded in pulverising the ruling Samajwadi Party much to the same extent to which the saffron party had steamrolled its rivals in the mega-state in the 2014 general elections.

By now, BJP is armed with an election machinery which is unparalleled. Its leadership’s ardour to win every poll is legendary. And for the party, the importance of the year 2019, when Modi’s second innings in power is expected to begin, is underlined. At least this is the impression one gets after talking to a number of Opposition leaders. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s statement that he is not in the race for the Prime Minister’s post and veteran politician Sharad Pawar is not ready to play ball with the Congress clearly give the impression that they are unwilling to fight with Modi.  

It is obvious that BJP is shining in the absence of competition. Congress president Sonia Gandhi, Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee, CPI(M)’s Sitaram Yechuri—all of them seem trapped in a single strategic silo to combat Modi, which is to “unite” the opposition. The Presidential poll, due in July, can be the first test of unity. But that’s most likely to be fighting a losing battle, as there are unbridgeable fissures in the opposition—Mamata Vs CPM, AAP’s Kejriwal Vs Congress, Samajwadi Party Vs BSP’s Mayawati. Beside, Modi’s inclusive style of campaigning has gravely challenged the traditional parties’ vote-banks. Mayawati’s Jatav, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s once famous Muslim (M)-Yadav (Y) amalgam, Delhi’s Bihari immigrant voters loyal to AAP—recent elections show that the lure of Modi’s “mitron” call brought about seemingly irreparable cracks in these traditional alliances.

Besides, the opposition is bereft of tall leaders. Unlike its UPA predecessor, the Modi administration is not protective about politicians involved in graft cases. Instead, its in-the-face attitude has dragooned most opposition stalwarts in cases from which escape is not guaranteed. Like Laloo and his family members in money-laundering charges; Congress former Home and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and his son, Karti, in the allegation of siphoning off huge amounts to acquire, among other things, large property in Britain; most of Mamata’s ministers and party leaders waiting to be picked up by CBI on the charge of accepting bribe as shown in the ‘Narada’ sting operation. In the National Herald illegal share-transfer case, the noose may also tighten on Sonia Gandhi and her son, Rahul, the Congress vice-president.

The opposition calls it “witch hunt” but its voice is feeble, with the media prone to self-censorship, and the government, armed with summary provision under Sec 124A of the IPC, being empowered to swoop down on its critics in the social media on the charge of being ‘seditious’. Besides, hit by a blizzard of serious corruption charges, the opposition seems to have lost its moral heft to stand up and question the government. It is more serious than comparable global developments, like near-evaporation of the Labour Party in UK, or the US Democratic Party being in eclipse. Unlike these mature democracies, the Indian opposition parties are personality-based and not much remains of them when the central towering figure collapses.

Though Modi’s political victory so far is undeniable, there are signs of weariness in governance and vision. In 2014, he promised: “I will make such a wonderful India that all Americans will stand in line to get a visa for India”. Unfortunately, things have moved in a different direction. Somewhat embarrassingly, the government Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) figures of national income refuse to tally with estimates of industrial production. In the quarter covering demonetisation of large notes last November, the index of industrial production was flat but national income grew at 7%, like in magic. With large malls lying near-empty, or being converted to office space, a shortfall in demand is self-evident.

Behind decline in demand is the stark reality of job opportunities shrinking. It is not merely due to Donald Trump’s visa policy, or problems in the IT sector due to shifts in technology (entry of robots in workplaces, for example). There are other reasons too, such as:

·      India has 10 million new workers to the workforce annually, but available non-agricultural jobs are less than 5 per cent;

·      Poor education system has rendered most Indians unemployable, including 90 % of the 10 lakh engineers passing out every year;

·      China became the world’s factory in the 1980’s. Now protectionism rules the roost, with global trade remaining subdued at 2.7% in volume terms. India may not be able to do the China act.

·      CRISIL estimates 12 million people will join agricultural workforce between 2011-12 and 2018-19. But agri workers’ number is declining very fast. So the country cannot move up the value chain to become a modern nation.

·      Agriculture, construction, manufacturing—sectors that employ people are lagging GDP growth. Though agriculture production has shown improvement. But its after two years’ of consecutive drought. What have outpaced GDP growth are financial services, real estate, public administration, and trade, hotels and restaurants. Except the last, all other growing sectors have little job potential. The country is indeed experiencing jobless growth. In the proposed GST regime, the last two have been hit hard.

From the rough and tumble of electoral politics, can Modi take a creative leap to make India a hub of innovation and growth? In the next two years, he must prove he can think big on governance. Or else the queues in India for American visa will continue to be longer than the other way round.

'Luv and Kush' winning battles

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the inseparable duos from Modi’s years as Gujarat chief minister. Like Luv and Kush, the warrior brothers, their partnership is mainly forged on (electoral) battlegrounds. But it has matured over the decades, with their voyage from Sabarmati to Ganga. Just how much power they pack in their punch came to light, for the second time after the 2014 general election, along the entire upper stretch of the Ganga last week, with the BJP campaign steered by the duo. They captured 379 of the 473 seats in the two assemblies of Uttarakhand (70) and Uttar Pradesh (403). That’s more than half the land washed by the “sacred river”.

Like Luv and Kush, they have issues to settle. The fighter brothers of mythology longed to right the wrong done to their mother, Sita, by their father, Ram. Modi and Shah are on a mission to establish their BJP as the next national alternative, after crushing the earlier one, Congress, and squelching its single binding factor, the Gandhi dynasty. During the earlier NDA rule, BJP’s efforts to do it was half-hearted, at best, and the end of A.B.Vajpayee’s government in 2004 put the Congress and the dynasty again at the top for a whole decade. Before taking charge of the BJP’s 2014 combat, Modi had put Shah in charge of the party in UP, as the two could not fight separately indeed. They must draw their bow backwards at once and release the arrows together.

After the phenomenal victory in 2014, in which the Congress was humbled to only 44 seats in the Lok Sabha, Luv and Kush had to catch a breath as they faced reversal in the 2015 assembly election in Bihar. It’s not that Modi and Shah had run out of their magic. Modi’s oratory was grand as ever and Shah picked up candidates and party workers from caste groups with the alacrity of the pelican snatching a fish from the lake’s surface. But nothing worked as the opposition had buried their historic internal feuds to form a Chinese wall against BJP.

This time round, the Modi-Shah team was meticulous and lucky. They left nothing to chances and learnt from the humiliating defeat in Bihar. In Bihar, the BJP worked hard to woo the Yadavs thinking that they will be angry with Nitish Kumar being projected as Chief Ministerial candidate. In the process, it ignored the other OBCs in Bihar and the Congress-RJD-JD(U) alliance proved fatal. The Luv-Kush duo knew the consequences of BJP losing UP and left nothing to chances. The strategy was in place from April last year when an insignificant OBC leader Keshav Prasad Maurya was appointed as UP BJP Chief. Three months later in July several OBC first timers MPs from UP were inducted in the Modi Council of Ministers. The luck favoured Luv-Kush duo again when some behind the scenes efforts to form a Bihar-type Mahagathbandhan (umbrella alliance of anti-BJP parties) in Uttar Pradesh failed. Then came the generational conflict raging between Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav, Chief Minister. This left the carefully crafted alignment between OBC groups and Muslims all but defunct. Besides, Mayawati, supremo of BSP, the party of Dalits, carried such long and bitter record of enmity with Mulayam Yadav that a BSP-SP coalition was out of the question. 

This left Mayawati with her 11% Jatavs and truncated Muslims. Shah began to work on the non-Jatavs in a big way. Despite an alliance between Congress and SP in the state, hammered out between Akhilesh and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, the portly BJP chief tapped its backward constituents for lines of fissure. The Modi-Shah duo re-established the OBC link that BJP had lost with the political eclipse of former chief minister Kalyan Singh (he is now Rajasthan Governor). Shah ensured that Kalyan Singh’s grandson gets the Assembly ticket and any OBC leader worth a salt given primacy.

Shah’s long hunt for non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav yielded a handpicked army that could bypass the caste silos that Congress, SP or BSP could occupy. Though community-wise voting behaviour reports are not available yet, there is little doubt that BJP could make deep inroads into non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBC groups. There was little hope, though, that Muslims would press the EVM button in favour of BJP. But Modi succeeded in created a ray of hope amongst the Muslim women by telling them that he would end the regressive Triple Talaq. Secondly, Modi’s campaign speeches remained refreshingly ‘development-oriented’ in the early phases of the seven-phase poll. But as polling moved eastward, Modi invoked his trademark divisive rhetoric while leaders like Yogi Adityanath did the rest to consolidate non-Muslim votes.

For Shah, revenge tasted best when served cold. His swagger, though muted, hit the jackpot as he said that in the first two stages of the poll, in which 125 seats were at stake, his party had won 115, against his own claim of 90 and rout predicted by the Opposition & the media. The BJP’s social engineering paid rich dividends in UP where BSP is routed, RLD wiped out and Congress decimated. The situation is so pitiable that Mayawati will be out of even Rajya Sabha in April 2018 when her term ends.

Though Congress has retained Punjab, a Sikh (non-Hindu) majority state. But the entire BJP leadership was praying for its win as it never wanted AAP to win the border state. The AAP’s rout in Goa has also gladdened the Duo’s hearts. In Manipur, inhabited by tribal people, it is facing extinction from the mainline states where Hindu identity can be political currency. Modi and Shah, the ‘Luv-Kush’ duo of BJP seems unstoppable in the 2019 general election.