by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly On the Wall

The Rise and fall (?) of AAP

If you thought Rahul Gandhi or the Congress party is the principal target of the BJP during the on-going Lok Sabha campaign, you may perhaps be under the wrong impression. No doubt, the Prime Minister has been continuously targeting the “Shahzada” and other members of the Gandhi family in his rallies. But none of the senior Congress leaders has either been put behind bars or targeted personally during the Lok Sabha polls. In fact, the BJP leaders  consider Rahul Gandhi an asset who provides fodder through his innocuous comments or slip of a tongue. If sources close to the ruling dispensation are any indication, the real target is Aam Aadmi Party and its convener Arvind Kejriwal. Reasons are many, the foremost being that no political leader except Kejriwal has earned the distinction of defeating the BJP in the Delhi Assembly polls not once but thrice. This was despite the fact that PM Modi had addressed rallies after rallies in Delhi to defeat Kejriwal in 2015 & 2020. No doubt, Kejriwal also tried to be bigger than his boots when he contested as many as 432 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 polls and could win four from Punjab. In 2019, he became wiser and fielded 35 candidates only. Bhagwant Singh Mann was the lone MP to represent Punjab in Lok Sabha. This election, he fielded 22 candidates and entered into an alliance with Congress in Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat etc. Of these 22, AAP is contesting 13 seats in Punjab alone. Yet the AAP's anti-corruption crusader Arvind Kejriwal is languishing in jail. The case is rare as this is the first time that a sitting Chief Minister is in jail on corruption charges in the midst of Lok Sabha polls. Will it help the BJP politically and decimate the AAP? The result of this unprecedented act will be out only on June 4.

Nitish on the Radar too

Normally, no one speaks for more than 5 minutes at a rally where Prime Minister Modi is the chief guest. But Nitish Kumar was full of steam and spoke for more than 15-minutes, a rare scene. As if this was not enough, Nitish Kumar gave signs of losing his mental balance and turned out to be quite an embarrassment. Nitish went to the extent of saying that the NDA will cross 4000 seats. As if this was not enough, Nitish Kumar came back to his seat and touched Modi's feet triggering a political storm.

If the Opposition leaders tried to portray it as Nitish bowing down to Modi, it also raised concerns about the CM's health amidst rumours that he is suffering from dementia. Nitish Kumar has been doing several such acts causing huge embarrassment to the party and workers. Since then, the PM has not addressed any meeting with Nitish Kumar though Modi went on to address rallies at Gaya and Purnea as well. Gaya is being contested by Jeeten Ram Manjhi while Santosh Kushwaha is contesting from Purnea. Both are BJP's allies in the NDA. It has been also decided that Nitish Kumar will have to follow a written script and speak within the given time frame. If insiders in the BJP are to be believed, Nitish Kumar is on the radar. The BJP would like to install its own Chief Minister in the key North Indian state. It has severed ties with Akalis in Punjab and Bihar is next in line. What a fall of “personally honest and politically dishonest leader” said a JD (U) leader.

Another Worrisome Slide

Mayawati was a school teacher and had gone to BJP leader late Madanlal Khurana seeking a ticket to contest as a corporator. She failed and as luck would have it, she got in touch with Kanshi Ram, BSP founder who wanted a Dalit to be the Prime Minister of India. He groomed her and made her UP Chief Minister after clinching an alliance with the Samajwadi Party in 1995. She never looked back and stitched alliances with the BJP, Congress or whosoever came her way to stay in power. The turning point came when she became the Chief Minister on the strength of her own party in 2007. The BSP became a pan-India party winning 21 Lok Sabha seats with 6.17% votes in 2009. And then began the slide as it drew a blank in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. She had to join hands with SP again in 2019 and got 10 seats and vote share in UP was 19%. But in the Assembly polls in 2022, vote share fell to as low as 12%.

The 2024 Lok Sabha polls may witness further erosion . Ever since Modi emerged on the scene, there has been a shift of Dalit voters towards the BJP. The Enforcement Directorate's case of money laundering forced her to play second fiddle to the ruling party at the Centre. Mayawati has been left high & dry with no capacity to win a Rajya Sabha seat from any of the states nor can guarantee a winning Lok Sabha seat either.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

A Terror state in Terror

The killing of Amir Sarfaraz, a Lashkar-e-Taiba operative, in Lahore, at his residence by two motorbike born gunmen, has created shock waves in Pakistan. Sarfaraz was acquitted in the 2013 murder of India's Sarabjit Singh who was a death-row prisoner, on charges of espionage. Though Sarfaraz had been provided with a security cover after several LeT operatives had been gunned down in Pakistan in the recent past. Yet, he could not escape death forcing Pakistan's Interior Minister to allege India's hidden hand. This is the 22^nd killing of terrorists belonging to Lashkar-e-Taiba and other such outfits who did targeted killings in India and having a good time in Pakistan. But not anymore.

The world woke up only when alleged Khalistani terrorist H S Nijjar was killed in Canada and the Canadian PM blamed India but gave no proof. Later, the US also joined the issue saying that India should cooperate in the on-going probe. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said such killings are contrary to India's policy. But it has been noticed that India's political response towards terrorists and those providing shelter had been very tough. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh declared recently, “Hum Ghar Mein Ghus Kar Marenge” (We will kill rogue elements in their nests). He was responding to a question that terrorists kill and hide in Pakistan.

Goes without saying that PM Modi has toughened India policy in fight against terrorism and India's external espionage agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), has been given unbridled power. The RAW, set up by Indira Gandhi in 1968 and played a key role in creating Bangladesh in 1971, was made defunct by her successor Morarji Desai in 1977. The RAW suffered again when I K Gujral became Prime Minister for a brief stint when he wound up its operations in Pakistan. The RAW is back in business in a big way and terrorists hiding in Pakistan are a worried lot. Modi may reap the harvest if the issue snowballs in the days to come during the elections.

Why ED, CBI silent on Vadra

Before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) was going against the Damaaji full gun blazing in a Haryana land deal case. Vadra, husband of Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, had been grilled by the ED several times and had even sought cancellation of anticipatory bail and sought his custody as he was not cooperating in the investigation. The ED had also claimed to have impeccable evidence of his ill-gotten property in London.

The allegations of land deals and other corruption cases were flying thick & high involving the Gandhi family in the 2014 election campaign that saw its continuation in 2019 polls as well. A prominent TV channel cited Vadra's links with the controversial arms dealer Sanjay Bhandari and how deals were discussed through emails. Five years down the line, there is no trace of cases against Robert Vadra. The BJP-led Haryana government closed the land deal case against Vadra. The London property also vanished into thin air. There is complete silence on corruption cases against Priyanka Gandhi Vadra or the other members of the Gandhi family except for the National Herald case.

There are reports that the country's leading real estate group made massive donations through Electoral Bonds to the ruling dispensation during the period. Whether these donations were linked to the closure of cases or not could be anybody's guess. But a smiling Vadra is wanting a Lok Sabha seat as he had faced huge harassment for more than a decade. The Gandhis are maintaining a stony silence on the issue and the party leaders are scared to even talk on the issue in these tough times and maintaining a studied silence. The Amethi & RaeBareli seats are awaiting Congress candidates.

Rising Star Revanth Reddy

Telangana Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy seems to have drawn a leaf out of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's book and is doggedly following him in at least one area i.e. an “Open Door Policy”.  Though the Congress has a comfortable majority in the Assembly, Revanth Reddy wants every influential leader in other parties to join the Congress so that its Lok Sabha tally goes up. He doesn't hesitate to visit the houses of Congress' arch rivals and bring them back into the fold. He is gunning for the BRS and determined to ‘erase’ every mark of his predecessor, K Chandrashekar Rao. He is removing all contents uploaded during KCR’s tenure by the social media channels run by the state information and public relations department as well. However, he doesn't go out of his way to speak against the BJP's central leadership particularly PM Modi. Rather, he called Modi "Bade Bhai" (Elder Brother). Being an astute political leader who had been with the ABVP during his student days, he knows that Centre's help is necessary for the development of the state. He is also keeping the party high command happy and since assuming office, he has visited Delhi at least 18 times. He doesn't mince words and speaks fluent Hindi and establishes a connection with the audience. His rising graph has made many in the Congress a worried lot.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

AAP facing biggest crisis

All eyes on SC on April 15 about Kejriwal's bail plea  

AAP's MPs, MLAs a worried lot, No clarity on new leader

All eyes are set on the Supreme Court which is set to hear Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's petition challenging his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on April 15.

In the event of any relief being denied to Kejriwal, the Aam Aadmi Party may suffer a body blow to its existence in the midst of Lok Sabha polls. The AAP Lok Sabha candidates in Delhi, Gujarat & Haryana are unable to start campaigning effectively. The party is unable to pick its nominees in Punjab either. If reports are to be believed, as many as 25 AAP MLAs of the 62, are in touch with the BJP and many of its Rajya Sabha Mps are facing the heat. The AAP's leading Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha has been camping in London for his eye treatment for more than a month and there are no early signs of his return. Except for Sanjay Singh and Sandeep Pathak, most of the Mps are looking the other way.

With the ED providing evidence of how ill-gotten money earned through liquor-gate given to AAP candidates in Goa and other leaders to the Delhi High court which rejected Kejriwal's bail plea, the party is facing a crisis of its existence. The ED has conducted at least 20 raids in Delhi and Goa and grilled party treasure N D Gupta and MLA Durgesh Pathak. It is also baffling that AAP's second most senior leader and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann is maintaining a low profile and confining himself to his state. No one has a clue whether Kejriwal's wife, Sunita Kejriwal will take the reins of the party or the government or both or someone else will don the mantle. It is highly unlikely that Kejriwal will stay as Chief Minister even after bail is denied to him by the SC.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Long wait for Rahul Darshan, 700 in queue

Congress Party's senior leader Rahul Gandhi may be ridiculed by the BJP day-in and day-out and the saffron party's social media army may be trolling him for everything that comes its way. But Rahul Gandhi continues to be in high demand in his own party if those managing his political affairs and office are to be believed. It is said that party's Lok Sabha candidates want Rahul Gandhi to campaign in their constituencies though insiders say the demand of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is equally high as she never trips as is often the case with Rahul Gandhi. Whatever may be the case, Rahul Gandhi is in high demand. An aide of Rahul Gandhi recently flared up when a Congress leader questioned him for not arranging his one minute meeting with the scion of the Gandhi family. The senior leader was from Delhi and had been trying to meet Rahul Gandhi for more than a month without any luck. The aide bluntly told him that more than 700 party leaders are waiting to meet “RG”. But the former Congress president has been extremely busy in campaigning and other critical issues. A clue to Rahul Gandhi's extremely busy scheduled came recently when the Chairman of the Congress media in-charge Jairam Ramesh disclosed in a social media post that Milind Deora had spoken with him over phone and requested about wishing to to speak with Rahul Gandhi over his concerns over Shiv Sena (UBT) laying claim to the South Mumbai Lok Sabha seat. A number of party leaders were surprised that Deora could not directly communicate with Rahul though he was considered very close to him.

BJP's Christians headache

The BJP leadership is facing a humongous problem in many of the Christian dominated Lok Sabha constituencies particularly in Kerala. Though PM Modi has taken several steps as part of his outreach program and had hosted their religious leaders at his residence, the problem persists. The cardinals were unhappy that Pope Francis had not been invited during the past several years ignoring a long standing tradition. Though the government explained that a mutually acceptable time-frame is being worked out after an invitation was sent. The Christians are also unhappy that not a single member of their community has been appointed as Vice Chancellor in any of the 75 central universities. Fortunately, Prakash Javadekar who is incharge of Kerala told them that during his tenure as Education Minister, two VCs of their community were appointed. They are complaining that the National Commission for Minority Educational Institutions (NCMEI) set up to promote education among the minorities, is running with just one member against a stipulated strength of four for years together. The quasi-judicial body grants minority certificates to institutions set up by minorities for promotion of education among them. The commission has had no Christian members for the past eight years. Sahid Akhtar is the lone commission member at present. The Christian community in general and the Catholic Church in particular run thousands of educational institutions. The Catholic Church alone has 50,000 institutions with 6 crore students.

Baffling absence of AAP's Raghav Chadha

A media favourite, charming, polite and a permanent fixture on television news channels, Raghav Chadha has been missing from the scene for more than a month. He went to London with his actress wife Parineeti Chopra ostensibly for an eye surgery though the couple took part in India Forum 2024, hosted at the London School Of Economics and many other events. It is explained that he is undergoing treatment of his eye while his wife was seen landing at the Mumbai airport earlier this month. The grapevine has it that Chadha is delaying his return to India as the ED may name him in an on-going Delhi Jal Board probe. The ED has already filed a chargesheet in the Rs 2 crore bribery case. Though it does not mention Chadha's name. But the ED is planning to file a supplementary chargesheet and may summon him for questioning. Lately, Raghav Chadha is incommunicado and Parineeti Chopra is also keeping the media at bay. Insiders say that Parineeti Chopra's sister Priyanka Chopra who is considered close to the powers that be, may play the role of a peace-maker. A long wait and deadly silence!

The Varun Gandhi riddle

Why did the BJP deny ticket to Varun Gandhi and chose his mother Maneka to contest Lok Sabha polls? This question continues to baffle even those close to the BJP high command. Many say that Varun Gandhi paid the price for his public utterances after he was not inducted into the Modi ministry in 2021. Though a couple of meetings took place between him and BJP chief J P Nadda on the issue. It is said Varun Gandhi was sounded for Minister of State's post but he suggested that he be considered for MoS with an Independent charge so that he can prove his mettle. It may be mentioned that his mother Maneka Gandhi had missed the Cabinet bus during Modi's second term in 2019 itself. Since then, Maneka Gandhi had maintained a studied silence and did whatever party work was assigned to her. But Varun Gandhi being a young fire-brand leader, kept throwing tantrums. It also transpires, though unconfirmed, that Varun Gandhi was asked obliquely if he will be willing to contest against any member of the Gandhi family belonging to the Congress. It is said that Varun looked reluctant though didn't decline. After the ticket was denied to him, Varun Gandhi has been maintaining a studied silence except for sending a heartfelt letter to the people of Pilibhit to say his doors would always be open for them.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Is the BJP getting desperate

The BJP leadership may have set a target of crossing 370 Lok Sabha seats mark for itself and 400 for the NDA. But no independent political observer was willing to accept such a tall order given the prevailing situation on the ground. Even credible pollsters and psephologists were baffled when the Prime Minister, Narwndra Modi said this on February 5 during a debate in the Lok Sabha. No doubt, the BJP had got a shot in its arm when Janata Dal (U) leader Nitish Kumar took a U-turn to re-joined the NDA causing a body blow to the INDIA alliance. Other smaller parties also made a bee-line to join the NDA. Yet it was not enough. The leadership got a jolt when the RSS reported to have shared a confidential country-wide survey it had conducted on the state of the nation. The survey, conducted last year, cautioned the BJP of stress in rural India and rising joblessness in cities forcing many to go back to the villages. No doubt, the Modi government's welfare schemes helped the poor but there was work. If sources close to the RSS are to be believed, it said the BJP may get a wafer-thin majority. It is said that it was only after this report that a multipronged strategy was formulated. An “open-door” policy was adopted and tickets were given to newcomers from other parties and a full-throated campaign against corruption was launched to expose Opposition leaders. An indication of this desperation was witnessed in Odisha where the BJP wanted to bring the ruling BJD in its fold which was already supporting the saffron party.

Double Whammy

The sulking 100 odd-BJP Mps who have been denied tickets by the party, got another rude shock. Though a few of them quit the party for greener pastures elsewhere, the majority of them were cooling their heels at home. The party high command contacted many of them saying that they have a job to do for the party and denial of ticket is not the end of their political career. They were told to work hard for the candidate who has been given the ticket from the same constituency. A detailed plan of their poll duties was shared with them. So much so that they were told to be present on the dais when the Prime Minister, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and party president J P Nadda addressed rallies in those constituencies. The BJP's election incharge of the constituency are in touch with them on a regular basis and they are given facilities to contribute for the victory of the party candidate. Interestingly, the BJP's Trimurti (Modi, Shah & Nadda) ensures to give full respect to those denied tickets on the stage and shake hands with them to send a signal to the audience that all is well in the saffron family. Most of the ministers denied tickets have been given specific duties and are actively campaigning for the new faces. A rare feat indeed!

Seats under BJP's Scanner

The BJP leadership has targeted a few Lok Sabha seats to ensure the defeat of Opposition leaders in 2024 polls. In 2019, it had targeted Amethi in UP and Dumka in Jharkhand to ensure the defeat of Rahul Gandhi and Shibu Soren. This time, the BJP leadership has Rae Bareli (UP), Chhindwara (MP), Bengaluru Rural (Karnataka), Baramati (Maharashtra) and Asansol (West Bengal) on its radar. The BJP wants Chhindwara seat in its kitty to ensure the defeat of Kamal Nath's legacy who has friendly relations with PM Modi. This will pave the way for Nakul Nath's entry into the BJP post elections. Similarly, the BJP wants to win Rae Bareli and has not declared its candidate so far waiting for the Congress to name Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to be fielded from the constituency. In Bengaluru Rural, the BJP wants to defeat DK Suresh, brother of deputy Chief Minister D K Shivkumar. In Baramati, the BJP is willing to pump its entire might to defeat Supriya Sule, a daughter of Sharad Pawar and helping Ajit Pawar to the hilt. The BJP leadership wants to snatch Asansol to ensure the defeat of Shatrughan Sinha. There are indications that it may field S S Ahluwalia, known for winning difficult seats. If he won Darjeeling in 16th Lok Sabha, he won Bardhaman Durgapur in 2019.

Nirmala rubs on the wrong side

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman may have earned some brownie points by saying that she declined to contest as she doesn’t have the kind of money that is needed to contest the Lok Sabha polls. However, this comment upset many party leaders who felt she had rubbed others on the wrong side. There are many leaders in the BJP who also do not have the kind of money to contest an election. But it's for the party to take a call on this aspect as well. Secondly, there are other ministers as well in the Modi government who had expressed their reluctance to contest for various reasons. Nirmala's comment has put them in an uncomfortable situation too though it may have been an innocuous one.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP to contest 445 Lok Sabha seats, 40 allies on board

The BJP is likely to contest around 440-445 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 parliamentary elections. The BJP has announced candidates for the 405 LS seats so far and candidates for some seats in UP, Punjab, Odisha and a couple of other states are yet to be announced. It has announced names of 24 candidates in Maharashtra and at least half a dozen more names may be announced in the next couple of days.

Interestingly, the BJP has entered into alliances with smaller parties in almost all the states to drum up its winning target of 370 seats and 400 for the NDA. The number of allies has touched 40, according to BJP sources. It tried hard to stitch alliances with the BJD in Odisha, JJP in Haryana and Akali Dal in Punjab but the talks failed. On the other hand, the BJP gave up its claim on seats to strengthen the NDA in a few North Eastern states.

Insiders say that PM Modi is sacrificing some of the seats as he wants to bring big reforms in his third term and wants everybody on board in his third term. The BJP, therefore, is welcoming all & sundry from all parties into its fold even at the cost of hurting the sentiments of the party cadre. It has dropped more than 100 sitting Mps including ministers and is experimenting with new faces.

This will be BJP's highest ever tally compared to 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls despite having the 40-odd allies in states. PM Modi was actively involved in bringing N Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh to open BJP's account which had drawn a blank in 2019. But in neighbouring Telangana, the BJP is going solo like in many other states. In 2014 the BJP fielded 428 candidates and won 282 seats while in 2019 it fielded 437 candidates and emerged victorious in 303 seats.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Watch out AAP's rising star Bhagwant Mann

With the Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal going behind bars, all eyes are set on the party's Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann. Though no instability is likely to be witnessed in the near future, informed sources say that it won't be an easy ride for Kejriwal's wife to take the reins of Chief Ministerial post or becoming a working Convener of the party. Since Manish Sisodia or Sanjay Singh have been granted any relief in the Liquor policy scam, one will have to watch out if Kejriwal will be lucky one to get out soon. The party is also facing a huge financial crisis making its day-to-day functioning crippled. The fear factor has gripped sympathizers and donors to help the party as probe agencies are keeping a close watch.In the given situation, all eyes are set on Punjab's Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann to arrange funds to its candidates. He is the senior-most leader and figures at number 7 in the Order of Precedence compared to Kejriwal at number 14. Secondly, he has good rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Being the Chief Minister of a border state, the Centre is careful and doesn't rub him on the wrong side. Mann is also careful is choosing his words while criticizing the BJP's top leadership. It is rumoured that the BJP leadership wanted AAP-Congress to not align for the Lok Sabha polls in Punjab. Political analysts may blame the Congress for break up. But it must be noted that Mann had taken a very strident stand on the issue and his writ prevailed.

VP, PM to shift to new residences

Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be shifting to new residential complexes soon. If Dhankhar is likely to shift to a new house in the first week of April, the PM may do it after June 4. The new Vice-President’s Enclave is spread over 15 acres of land and has a build-up area of 20,000 sq. feet. It will have a single-story (ground plus one with a basement) residence, a secretariat building, guest house, sports facility, staff quarters and ancillary buildings. The VP House is part of the Narendra Modi government’s ambitious Central Vista redevelopment project and will have a new Prime Ministerial residence in the vicinity. The new residential complexes are fitted with state-of-the-art-technology and have all security features. 

The construction work, which started in January 2022, has been delayed for over a year after it was awarded to Jharkhand-based Kamladityya Construction Pvt. Ltd. (KCPL) was awarded the project in November 2021. The Rs 214-crore enclave is the third project to be completed as part of the approximately Rs 13,500 crore Central Vista plan. Under the Central Vista redevelopment project, 10 Common Central Secretariat (CCS) buildings are also to be constructed on either side of the Kartavya Path (Rajpath) during Modi's third term.

The Gandhis won't vote for Congress

It may be perhaps for the first time that the three members of the Gandhi family- Sonia, Rahul & Priyanka- won't be able to cast their votes for the party they belong to. Since the New Delhi Lok Sabha constituency has been given to the AAP under the seat-sharing formula, the Gandhis will not be able to cast their votes for the Congress candidate. If they are in town on the day of the voting, they will be voting for their electoral partner candidate belonging to the AAP. The AAP has fielded Somnath Bharti as its candidate for the Lok Sabha polls while the BJP has fielded Bansuri Swaraj, daughter of late Sushma Swaraj.

Baffling silence over Priyanka Gandhi

If the Congress is keeping its cards close to the chest with regard to Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies, the BJP has also not named its candidate for the Rae Bareli seat either. It has chosen Smriti Irani as its candidate so far among the 64 candidates announced from UP. The BJP will contest 76 seats out of 80 in the Lok Sabha polls. It is fairly clear that Rahul Gandhi won't contest from Amethi. But there is complete silence over Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's name as well.

The Congress has announced candidates for the nine Lok Sabha seats out of the 17 it will contest in alliance with the Samajwadi Party in UP. But both the seats do not figure in the party's list. It is learnt that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is reluctant to enter the electoral fray from Rae Bareli. If reports emanating from 10 JanPath are an indication, she is extremely unhappy with what's happening in the party. Her services are not being utilized for the past few months and she is cooling her heels at her Sujan Singh Park residence. Efforts are on to persuade her to contest from Rae Bareli. If the BJP targeted Amethi seat in 2019 Lok Sabha, it has kept its powder dry for the Rae Bareli seat this time.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

 

Come elections and Video season begins

Two recent obscene videos allegedly involving two BJP Lok Sabha Mps have taken the national Capital by storm. In the case of Upendra Singh Rawat, the video surfaced on social media after he was fielded as a candidate from Barabanki Lok Sabha seat. Though an FIR against unknown accused was registered as Rawat claimed the video was doctored to tarnish his image, he deemed it fit to withdraw from the contest the very next day. The obscene videos which have not been authenticated so far purportedly featuring him appeared online on 3 March. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had denied a ticket to the then-sitting MP Priyanka Singh Rawat and made Upendra Singh Rawat its candidate. 

While the BJP was struggling to cope with this, another video involving another sitting BJP Lok Sabha MP from Sonepat in Haryana emerged on the social media. The woman involved was wanting a favour and the MP demanded a return favour. In this case also, the FIR was registered and the Police detained two people. The Sonepat MP, Ramesh Kaushik, vehemently denied saying it was a political conspiracy against him. Kaushik had joined the BJP in the Modi wave in 2013 among other senior Congress leaders like Rao Inderjeet, Birender Singh, Kuldeep Bishnoi and got the Lok Sabha ticket in 2014. He was given the Lok Sabha ticket again in 2019 and defeated former Chief Minister Bhupendra Singh Hooda. However, the tickets in Haryana are yet to be announced and there is a question mark whether he would be lucky a third time. It is not the first time that such videos have surfaced in public domain involving senior politicians.  The BJP has been very tough in such cases and those involved had paid a heavy price for their misadventures.

New BJP Chief after LS Polls!

When the tenure of BJP chief JP Nadda was extended by the National Council in February onth for four months, it became clear that the ruling party will have a new Chief after the polls. Nadda was appointed interim president in 2019 after Amit Shah was became Union Home Minister. It is now whispered in the corridors of power that former Haryana Chief Minister Manoharlal Khattar may be the new BJP president in place of J P Nadda. Khattar has been Modi's close confidante as he was his room-mate since the days when both were RSS' full-time pracharaks. Khattar was the personal choice of Modi as Haryana Chief Minister and had surprised political observers in 2014. With enough administrative experience behind him, Khattar qualifies to be in the next Modi Cabinet. But Modi will need a confidante to run the party affairs. Nadda may be brought into the Modi Cabinet like former party chiefs; Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and Amit Shah.

A classic riddle in Haryana & Jharkhand

Two states; one ruled by the BJP and another by the INDIA alliance, are facing a classic riddle. The newly appointed Haryana Chief Minister, Nayab Singh Saini, is not an MLA and he will have to contest for an Assembly seat before September. The Karnal Assembly seat has fallen vacant after Manohar Lal Khattar quit and a by-poll has been announced. Since the tenure of the Haryana Assembly is ending on November 3, Saini will have to contest again in October as tenure of the Assembly will end on November 3. Saini has resigned his Lok Sabha seat and in all likelihood, Khattar may contest for the same.

Similar riddle has emerged in Jharkhand  where Kalpana Murmu Soren, wife of former Chief Minister Hemant Soren, is unable to decide whether to contest for the Assembly or Lok Sabha polls. The by-poll in Gandeya Assembly seat in Giridih district is due. It was decided that Kalpana Murmu Soren will contest this seat and later she will be installed as Chief Minister. However, with trouble brewing in the Shibu Soren family, Kalpana Soren may prefer to contest the Dumka Lok Sabha seat. Shibu Soren's another daughter-in-law, Sita Soren has joined the BJP and it's considered a huge setback to the JMM.

Patience pays

If you are dealing with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, you must have tremendous patience. He has many parameters to test the loyalty of people and who will know better than Chirag Paswan. He was the natural choice to inherit the political legacy of his father Ram Vilas Paswan who died on October 8, 2020. But he was not made a minister and lost his bungalow even after he helped the BJP in Bihar Assembly polls and JD (U) was pushed to number three position. As if this was not enough, his estranged uncle Pashupati Paras was inducted into the Cabinet in July 2021. However, Chirag Paswan kept his cool and did not utter a word either against the BJP or Modi for three long years. When Lok Sabha polls approached, Gods smiled on him and Chirag Paswan got what he wanted; all five Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. Modi dumped Pashupati Paras like a hot potato. Reason; Modi was testing Chirag Paswan's patience. People close to him say that Modi had been doing it since his Gujarat days. Modi also knew that the 6% Paswan vote bank will go towards the son and not with “uncle” when it comes to the electorate.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

The Fall of a Doon School buddy

Former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath was the blue-eyed boy of the Gandhi family for almost 60 years and attained the status of “Third son of Indira Gandhi.” He was among those privileged ones who lived with Rajiv and Sanjay at the Teen Murti residence of late PM Jawaharlal Nehru during school holidays as he became their buddy at the Doon School. The Doon school club called the shots when Rajiv Gandhi became the PM. It was this DOSCO club which eventually gave birth to many of the scams the country witnessed over the decades. Kamal Nath is perhaps the last member of this club to fall from grace when he did not listen to persistent pleas of AICC state incharge of Madhya Pradesh; be it Jai Prakash Agrawal or Randeep Surjewala regarding distribution of tickets. Eventually, the Congress lost polls and Rahul Gandhi decided to sack him within 24 hours as PCC Chief. An enraged Kamal Nath tried to cross over to the BJP but his move backfired.

Insiders in the Congress say that Rahul Gandhi was always against making Kamal Nath Chief Minister but Sonia Gandhi prevailed. It was always suspected that the Modi government is soft towards Kamal Nath and not acting against his elder son Bakul Nath, an NRI in the USA, despite his name figuring in the list of beneficiaries in AgustaWestland Deal.

Bakul Nath's name surfaced after the ED extradited Rajiv Saxena from Dubai in January 2019. He was a conduit in the Rs 3,000-crore VVIP chopper deal case. Saxena's statement to the ED was over 1,000 pages and gave account of involvement of defence dealer Sushen Mohan Gupta, Kamal Nath's nephew Ratul Puri, Bakul Puri among others.

Ratul Puri was arrested by the ED in 2019 as the proceeds of crime were routed through a company owned by Savannah Trust. Bakul Nath, a beneficiary, has been unable to come to India for the past five years. Kamal Nath has denied any wrongdoing in these cases and his involvement. Anyway, his younger son and sitting Lok Sabha MP Nakul Nath has been retained as party candidate from Chhindwara as every seat matters in this do or die battle.

How Meenakshi Lekhi lost the plot

Meenakshi Lekhi had all the ingredients of becoming the Chief Ministerial face of the BJP in Delhi. She belonged to the most respected family of legendary lawyer P N Lekhi who always fought cases in courts on behalf of the RSS-Jana Sangh and commanded considerable respect. Lekhi was a party loyalist and a good orator in addition to being a good lawyer too. She was promoted rather fast in the party ranks and emerged as BJP's Lok Sabha candidate in 2014 from the prestigious New Delhi constituency. Almost all senior party leaders including late Arun Jaitley recommended her name and she was elected with a thumping majority. She made a mark by her performance in the Lok Sabha and got nominated for the second term in 2019. Later, she was inducted in the Modi government as Minister of State for External Affairs & Culture. It transpires that she fell out with her senior ministerial colleague and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar over crossing a line and even went public on a sensitive issue. She used to blow her top often and kept workers waiting for hours together. It seems success went into her head and party workers started complaining to the high command. As the power of her star faded, she lost the ticket and another emerging woman lawyer in Bansuri Swaraj emerged on the scene. Bansuri also carried with her the legacy of late Sushma Swaraj. Meenakshi Lekhi is cooling her heels now hoping for rehabilitation in the organization. If she has lost the plot, it's due to her own doing.

How Sukhu wrote his own obituary

Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu was a surprise choice as Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh and was nowhere in the race for the coveted post. He was considered close to the Gandhi siblings; Rahul & Priyanka, and also a close confidant of senior party leader Anand Sharma too. Sharma is considered close to Sonia Gandhi though Rahul doesn't like him. When the Congress won the polls, Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu was chosen, nipping the prospects of Pratibha Singh, wife of late Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh. The Gandhis deputed another confidant Rajiv Shukla as state incharge to ensure that government remains stable. Since the Congress won 40 out of 68 Assembly seats, Sukhu and Shukla thought that BJP can't pose a threat. But unthinkable happened as the Sukhu-Shukla duo could never imagine that six of their own party MLAs could vote for the BJP's Rajya Sabha candidate. If Sukhu was complaisant, Shukla's hands were full with other big responsibilities like the BCCI, UP and looking after the Gandhi family. Poor Sukhu will pay the price and the Gandhis will lose a state as the BJP has tasted blood. Its only a matter of time and Sukhu's days are numbered.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Striking Similarities: 1984 vs 2024 Lok Sabha polls

The Lok Sabha polls slated to be held in April-May 2024 remind political observers of striking similarities with the one held 40 years ago. A close look at the parliamentary polls held in December 1984 soon after the assassination of PM Indira Gandhi on October 31 at her 1 Safdarjung Road residence, will reveal some of these similarities. Her son Rajiv Gandhi became the PM and went on to win 404 of the 514 Lok Sabha seats. The Lok Sabha polls were not held in Punjab and Assam due to insurgency. Incidentally, the 1984 elections were the last in the country which gave a single party 404 seats. Even a bare majority of seats could not be achieved by any political party for the next 30 years. The BJP ended up winning merely two seats in 1984 and that too in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. The regional party, TDP of NT Ramarao emerged as the leading Opposition party with 23 seats. The same BJP won 282 in 2014 and crossed the 300 seats mark in 2019.

Rajiv Gandhi may have won 404 Lok Sabha seats in 1984 polls but those were largely on the  back of a massive sympathy wave that erupted in the wake of Indira Gandhi's assassination. Rajiv Gandhi was an untried and untested, young, suave and handsome leader and generated a new hope with the masses. He gelled with the people but failed to repeat his feat in 1989. The Opposition parties of different shades joined hands and could never come back to power. The Congress regained power later but never won a majority. 

PM Narendra Modi is hoping to achieve the 400 seats feat 40 years later in 2024 and not riding on any sympathy wave. He has been able to generate confidence among the countrymen that he is a “Pradhan Sewak” (Chief servant) and will deliver whatever he says and doesn't hesitate in using any weapon in his armory to achieve his objective. When it comes to delivery, he rides on the list of 80 crore beneficiaries of his several welfare schemes. Modi's immense communication skills and establishing rapport with the people should be a cse study in itself.  Rajiv Gandhi was a visionary too and set up seven technology missions to make India economically independent. He brought computers but failed in political management and paid the price.

Tit for Tat by the BJP now

The similarities between 1984 and 2024 does not end here. If Rajiv Gandhi's war team targeted almost all prominent leaders of the Opposition parties to ensure their defeat in the Lok Sabha polls in 1984, the Modi dispensation is no different. The Congress succeeded in achieving its goal when several tall Opposition leaders like Atal Behari Vajpayee, Chandra Shekhar, S N Mishra, Raj Narain and others were defeated. Rajiv Gandhi put up several film stars and young faces like Amitabh Bachchan, Madhavrao Scindia to name a few, against tall Opposition leaders to ensure their defeat. But the BJP is no different as every Lok Sabha seat is being scrutinized through a microscope to achieve the objective. The Opposition parties are taking adequate precautions to save their skin. Sonia Gandhi opted for a Rajya Sabha seat in 2024 and avoided a contest in Rae Bareli after Rahul Gandhi's humiliating defeat in Amethi in 2019. It is still not clear whether Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will try her luck in Rae Bareli or Amethi or leave the high command in a dilemma as to whom it should put up from these two constituencies. Similarly, Shatrughan Sinha's Asansol seat in West Bengal is also on the target. Modi had specially flown to Mumbai to attend his son’s wedding. Yet he opted to quit the BJP to join the Congress and later moved towards the TMC.

Modi is also targeting all dynasties in states and screening closely leaders in his own party who think that getting a ticket is their birthright. Amethi and Dumka were on his radar in 2019 when Rahul Gandhi and Shibu Soren were defeated. This time, it will be Rae Bareli, Chhindwara, Baramati and Bengaluru Rural where DK Suresh, brother of DK Shiv Kumar, is a sitting MP.

Singhvi eyeing RS seat from Jharkhand, Kerala

After the shocking defeat of Abhishek Manu Singhvi for the Rajya Sabha seat in Himachal Pradesh, the Congress high command is contemplating to find another state for him. The immediate seat available is Jharkhand where Rajya Sabha polls will be held for two seats on May 4. The BJP and JMM-Congress combine will get one seat each. But given the political uncertainty in the state where the ruling JMM has become vulnerable after Hemant Soren went to jail, no one is sure what will happen. Secondly, the JMM is unwilling to spare a Rajya Sabha seat for the Congress due to its own political compulsions. Another proposal on the plate is that Singhvi be fielded from Kerala where the Congress will get one Rajya Sabha seat out of three. The state is less vulnerable compared to Himachal Pradesh or even Jharkhand.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Clouds of Uncertainty Over LS Tickets

With Prime Minister Modi sharpening his attack on dynasty politics being the root cause of evils at his rallies, no one is sure as to what is cooking in his mind. Many BJP stalwarts are struggling hard to decipher Modi's recent reference to the dynasty in his last speech made in the 17th Lok Sabha. Referring to dynasties, Modi suddenly turned to comments being made by some Opposition leaders about this culture in the BJP too. He ridiculed those Opposition leaders who compared Rajnath Singh ji's son being an MLA in the UP Assembly or Amit Shah Ji's son being in a cricket body (BCCI). Modi went on to attack the Opposition parties saying their dynasties are controlling the levers of powers which is not the case in the BJP.

Long before Modi's recent remarks, there were reports that Rajnath Singh's son Ajay Singh, MLA and Vice president of the BJP's UP unit, may be fielded for the Lok Sabha and the Defence Minister may be given another Constitutional responsibility after the polls. Modi has been successful in creating a perception that his government is set to return for a third term and may walk away with a majority of floating voters too. The buzz in the political corridors is that in his third term, Modi will go for a massive overhaul and bring in new faces from various fields. With increased focus on Southern Indian states to expand BJP's base in the years to come, Modi may rope in talent from there. The BJP had polled around 4% votes in 2019 and was targeting to take it to 10% in 2024. Modi made an exception for MoS S Murugan and gave RS ticket to him along with Ashwini Vaishnav from Odisha while denying to 6 others. It is a signal that the new ministry will see a new era. Modi has consciously not undertaken any reshuffle of his Cabinet since July 2021 despite several vacancies. Many ministers were much below the age of 75 years. This indicates that age is no longer a criteria.

Is Satyapal Malik writing a book

The CBI conducted raids on the premises of Satyapal Malik and many of his associates in Delhi and other places in connection with some projects he cleared during his tenure as Governor of J&K. The CBI has not disclosed so far as to what has been recovered during these raids and nor Malik has given any details in this regard. The BJP leadership is also tight-lipped because it had no clue how Satyapal Malik emerged on the scene from nowhere and was appointed as Governor of Bihar in 2017 and later shifted to J&K. Sources close to Malik say that he had been contemplating writing a book during his days as Governor of four states during his five year stint. His statements about the Pulwama attack on CRPF convoy had created considerable anger in the ruling dispensation. It was felt as to how a sitting Governor could make such statements and cross the 'Lakshman Rekha'. He should have been sacked immediately. But nothing of the sort happened. After he completed his tenure, he was quizzed by the CBI about these two contracts given during his tenure as Governor in J&K. In fact, due to his reports when he held the post in J&K, a senior BJP leader was removed from a key post. With regard to his forthcoming book, no one is sure whether Malik was actually writing it or was just thinking about it. The Last word about the Malik saga is yet to be written.

Bansuri Swaraj, a new buzz in town

Who is Bansuri Swaraj! No one knew her until March 2023 when she was appointed as co-convener of Delhi BJP's legal cell. No one knew that she is the daughter of Sushma Swaraj and Swaraj Kaushal. After doing her undergraduate studies from the University of Warwick with a BA (Hons) in English Literature, she went on to study Law at BPP Law School in London and enrolled with the Bar Council of India in 2007. She has 17 years of experience behind her and earned a lot of goodwill. She is quite popular among the BJP workers and leaders and there are reports that she may even be fielded in ensuing Lok Sabha polls from Delhi. She is also a popular face on TV channels representing the BJP and has impressed even BJP's opponents.

What next for Bijoy Panda, RCP Singh

The future of two senior leaders who joined the BJP from other parties- Bijoy Panda and R C P Singh- hangs in the balance. Panda came from the Biju Janata Dal while RCP Singh from the Janata Dal (U). Since new political developments have emerged in these two states, their future hangs in the balance now. Bijoy Panda has been given an important state of UP where 80 Lok Sabha seats are at stake. RCP Singh is in the BJP but has been cooling his heels in Bihar as the Nitish-led JD (U) is back with the BJP. RCP Singh was a Cabinet Minister in the Modi government from the JD (U) quota. But he is not even a member of Parliament now and so is Bijoy Panda. Both are waiting for rehabilitation. Nitish Kumar hates RCP Singh and will ensure that the BJP does not rehabilitate him in the Ministry. Whether RCP Singh will get a Lok Sabha ticket or not, is not clear as yet. The BJP may be fighting with the BJD in Odisha. But there is friendship between Naveen Patnaik and Modi which brought Ashwini Vaishnav in Rajya Sabha twice from Odisha as a bonus. The condition is to keep Bijoy Panda out. But Panda is hopeful that the Gods will be kind after the Lok Sabha polls.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

What next for Sonia Gandhi

When a reluctant Sonia Gandhi was elected as Congress president on March 14, 1998 in what is famously called a “bloodless coup” throwing sitting Sitaram Kesari out, her biggest challenge was how to rejuvenate and unite the faction-ridden party. Her decision shocked one & all as she had repeatedly turned down appeals to join the party following the assassination of her husband and former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi on May 21, 1991. If she threw her weight behind P V Narasimha Rao for the PM's post in 1991 instead of Maharashtra strongman Sharad Pawar, in 1997, she also opted for Sitaram Kesari for the party chief's post. It was a tough time for her as the Congress was faced with internal revolt and threats from the rising BJP under the tall leadership of Atal Behari Vajpayee and L K Advani. Her foreign origin tag was also a big stumbling block as well. Then came the big test when Congress vice president Jitendra Prasada revolted and contested against Sonia Gandhi for party President's post in August 2000. How she re-built the party and in a short span of six years installed Dr Manmohan Singh in 2004 as Prime Minister for ten long years, is history. She earned respect and her public conduct is widely appreciated too. She has opted to move to the Rajya Sabha primarily to retain her 10 JanPath bungalow and silently watch the crumbling Congress she built brick by brick. Will she take back the reins again and look for an alternative leader within the Gandhi clan or outside or continue to have faith in her loving son? No one is sure.

The rise and likely fall of a Gandhi

In contrast, Rahul Gandhi got everything on a platter ever since he entered politics in 2002. The party came to power within a short span of two years and he too was elected to the Lok Sabha from Amethi in 2004. Instead of listening to the saner voices in the party, he chose to be his own master. He refused to listen to his “Gurus” like late AK Antony or even his mother and declined to join the ministry to get training on how governments are run. He refused to undertake a training program on public speaking and mastery over Hindi. His mother did a shade better and stuck to reading Hindi rather than doing Harakiri by speaking extempore. She even rewarded her Hindi teacher two Rajya Sabha terms. Insiders say that the party and its allies were in favour of Rahul Gandhi taking over the reins of the government as PM in 2011-2012 sending Dr Manmohan Singh as the President of India. But he declined saying he would like to become the PM after winning an election fought under his leadership. Eventually, he became the Congress president in December 2017 and faced a humiliating defeat in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. He lost his own bastion Amethi. He quit the post in July 2019 out of the blue. Interestingly, nobody shed a tear for him and asked him to continue. But he is happy as back-seat driver of the party making Mallikarjun Kharge a lame duck president. Many party leaders feel that he may end up as a person who is bent upon destroying the party and in the process his own political career as well. His recent speeches during his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra have made many of his partymen worried particularly during the UP leg. The kind of language and words he spoke have left his own supporters outside the Congress speechless.

Uneasiness Brewing in the First Family!

Reports emanating from the Congress' First Family suggest that all is not well. The first indication of this uneasiness came when the AICC general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra did not show up in Manipur on January 14, 2024 when Rahul Gandhi started his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra and quietly left on a foreign trip. It was stated that she will join her brother when the Yatra enters UP. But she has not been seen yet. The only time she was seen in public was when Sonia Gandhi went to Jaipur to file her nomination to take the Rajya Sabha route. But Priyanka's body language clearly reflected that something is amiss. A week later, it was announced that she was not well and was admitted to a hospital. The last word on the issue has not been written as yet though a few leaders close to her say that she may show up within the next one week as she is back from the hospital and recouping at home. Insiders say that she is extremely upset with the kind of treatment meted out to her as she was to take the Rajya Sabha route and contest from the toughest Rae Bareli seat. But she has been left high & dry. It may be mentioned here that several senior leaders of the party are in favour of making Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as the party's face as Rahul Gandhi has failed to generate faith and earn the confidence of the people. The last word on the Gandhi family saga has not been written as yet.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP's Open-Arm Policy to win 370 Lok Sabha seats

4-Member committee with Vinod Tawade as member to focus on 161 seats

In order to achieve its goal of winning 370 Lok Sabha seats out of 543 in the May-2024 polls, the BJP is selectively opening its doors for leaders belonging to other parties.

The BJP has identified 161 Lok Sabha seats it wants to win which it never won in the past. The data-crunching of past Lok Sabha polls revealed that the BJP will need the help of leaders of other parties to win these seats.  Therefore, the 4-member high-powered was set up to screen the entry of leaders from other parties which are working overtime to green-flag their entry.

The committee is composed of Union Minister Bhupinder Yadav, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Maharashtra's senior leader and general secretary Vinod Tawde and general secretary (Organisation) B L Santhosh.

There are reports that as many as dozen Mps from Congress, 40 MLAs and other prominent leaders may quit their parties and join the BJP within the next three weeks in phases.

The committee's focus is on those states where the BJP has a formidable presence but still wants to win those seats where it is on weak wickets. The states like Maharashtra, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, are on radar to add more seats in BJP's kitty. The BJP core team feels that the party could add at least 25+ Lok Sabha seats from these states in addition to retaining those it won in 2019. Chhindwara Lok Sabha seat is among the 161 Lok Sabha seats that the BJP could not win in decades.

There are states like Punjab, West Bengal, Odisha, Karnataka, Jharkhand and a couple of others where it can add 10 Lok Sabha seats if leaders of substance from other parties could be roped in.

The committee's focus is particularly on Punjab where it feels that the party could win all 13 seats if handled properly. It roped in Capt Amrinder Singh and Sunil Jakhar from Congress. The states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are in special focus where the BJP can at least win 15 seats with tie-up TDP and other regional parties. For remaining Southern states, the BJP is aiming to win 10 plus seats.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Social Media keeps Modi Ministers on Tenterhooks

Parents are worried all over the world about the growing habit among children glued to social media most of the time. Policy makers are debating how to curtail the growing influence of FaceBook, X, Instagram, Whatsapp and other vehicles. But Prime Minister Modi's Ministers and top leaders are making full use of these social media platforms to publicize government decisions and programs among the people. Every Union Minister is expected to immediately load his ministry's decisions on these platforms as early as possible. If any of the leaders of Opposition parties adversely comment on a government decision, the concerned minister is expected to react without delay. A battery of other BJP leaders are also deployed to denounce such adverse comments within a short time. In fact, no other party has made full use of these social media platforms. Every ministry and department has a battery of social media handlers who are battle ready 24X7 to assist. But all such tweets and posts are cleared at the highest level in the ministry and ministers are always at tenterhooks. The party's social media department works round the clock and keeps track of all such activities on these platforms. In fact, the communication channels between the party and the government have virtually been merged under the Modi dispensation. The BJP's head of media department Anil Baluni coordinates with ministers and party leaders to chalk out a common media reaction to situations as they arise round the clock. This strategy has rich dividends to the BJP. The greater task ahead is to evolve a synergy between the party and the BJP-ruled state governments also which is being implemented gradually.

Lord Rama helping Modi?

Strange it may sound but seems to be true. A number of Modi followers believe that Lord Rama has blessed the Prime Minister ever since he undertook 'Pran Pratishtha' in Ayodhya on January 22. Before the Pran Pratishtha, it looked as if there was a tough battle between the BJP and the INDI Alliance parties for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The commentators were saying that the NDA will be lucky to retain 300 plus seats in the Lok Sabha polls. But Modi's fortunes turned after January 22. It seems that there is a divine blessing to the PM as one partner after the other started leaving the INDI Alliance. 

The first setback came from Bihar when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar decided to dump the INDIA bloc in a dramatic development and went back to the BJP. As if this was not enough, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee  announced her decision to go alone in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. She blamed Rahul Gandhi in particular for the mess. This development came despite a clear assessment of the Congress strategists that the CPM vote in West Bengal is not transferable to the Congress or to the TMC. If the Congress-TMC alliance takes place, the CPM vote will be split among the various groupings. The Muslims have already gone with the TMC in West Bengal. Even the Aam Aadmi Party walked out of the alliance with the Congress in Punjab though it is still offering one seat in Delhi in lieu of seats in Goa, Gujarat, Haryana and other states. Even in Jharkhand, it will be extremely difficult for the JMM-Congress-RJD to stay together as Chief Minister Champai Soren is a different fish in the cattle. No one is sure that former Chief Minister Hemant Soren will be able to hold his grip on the party. As if this was not enough, many senior leaders of the Congress in states have started quitting the party and the carnage is continuing. But Rahul Gandhi is not rattled and is on his own trip.

Retired Officers in demand

Gone are the days when retired top bureaucrats used to hanker for post-retirement benefits. A new trend has emerged when such retired bureaucrats and officers join boards of corporate sector companies either as Independent Directors or in other key positions. There is a battery of retired IAS, IRS & IPS officers who have joined the corporate sector. But one officer who joined Religare Enterprises Ltd turned heads as he waited for months for a key post retirement job. Rakesh Asthana is an IPS officer of 1984 batch of Gujarat cadre and was Delhi's Police Commissioner. But he got no post and opted to join a private sector company which is  embroiled in many legal battles for its wrong doings. A former CBI director is also on the board of a private company. Rather, there is a demand for such seasoned officers who held key positions in CBI, ED, Income Tax and other such agencies in the past.  The corporate sector needs them for their advice and assistance.

Mamata takes lead

Except for Mamata Banerjee's TMC, no other national or regional political party including BJP or Congress gave more than 33% seats to the women either in the Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha. The BJP may take the credit that it passed the bill giving reservations to women in legislative assemblies and parliament last year. But hardly any party followed the law in spirit except the TMC of Mamata Banerjee. The TMC has been sending a maximum number of women in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha though its following is confined to West Bengal in electoral terms. The Congress has Sonia Gandhi at the helm for more than 25 years. But it sends fewer numbers of women in RS or Lok Sabha and the same goes for the BJP. However, once the law comes into force, the parties will be forced to nominate 33% women in the legislature.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall 

Suspense over Baramati continues

With the BJP high command determined to increase its seat and vote tally in the 2024- Lok Sabha polls, it is asking its allies in states to put their best foot forward. As part of this strategy, it is prodding its key ally NCP led by Ajit Pawar in Maharashtra to snatch all the four seats; Baramati, Satara, Shirur and Raigarh, that the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) held in 2019 LS polls.

Sharad Pawar had pitched his daughter Supriya Sule from his traditional Baramati Lok Sabha seat to send a clear message that she will be his heir apparent. But the situation took a dramatic turn when Ajit Pawar staged a coup and walked away with the majority of MLAs. He joined hands with the BJP to dislodge the MVA government with more than 40 MLAs. Reports emanating from BJP headquarters in Delhi say that Ajit Pawar is being prodded to field his wife from Baramati Lok Sabha against Supriya Sule. This is despite the fact that PM Modi and Pawar have a personal chemistry running over many decades. But times have changed and if insiders are to be believed, the BJP is drawing a strategy to win all six Rajya Sabha seats in the biennial polls due this month. The NDA can manage to win five seats but there are many strategists who claim that the NDA can win six seats if remaining MLAs in the Opposition kitty play ball with the BJP. The Congress has 41 MLAs in a House of 288 and neither the NCP (Pawar) and now Sena (Uddhav) can win a seat on their own. There are reports that senior Pawar may invoke sympathy factor in Baramati saying this will be his last election of his life. Will it work or not can only be tested in May only.

A trust with No Trust

The great “Paltu Ram” of Indian politics has broken all past records of “Aaya Rams & Gaya Rams” that were witnessed in Haryana almost 45 years ago. When the mediators were brokering a peace deal again between the Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar and the BJP leadership for an alliance once again, there was a hitch. Nitish Kumar wanted a fresh letter of appointment from the Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar immediately after he tendered his resignation from the post of Chief Minister. He wanted his resignation to be accepted immediately and the BJP should simultaneously submit its letter of support to him to the Governor then & there. He also wanted the Governor to hand him over a fresh letter of appointment then & there. Nitish also insisted that the swearing-in-ceremony be held the same day. It was a piquant situation for the BJP as its MLAs had not held any meeting to lend their support to Nitish Kumar so that the party could hand over a letter of support to Nitish Kumar to the Governor. Nitish Kumar, by nature is very suspicious in nature and insisted that agreement can be reached if conditions are met. The BJP agreed to all the conditions with a proviso that Lok Sabha seat sharing deal will be on merit and not on the basis of 2019 outcome. It was only after these tricky behind-the-scenes deals the BJP could return to power sharing deal with Nitish Kumar. Interestingly, Nitish Kumar has also been appointed as the head of the NDA in Bihar.

Why Bharat Ratna to LK Advani?

Ever since the Modi government gave Padma Vibhushan to Samajwadi leader late Mulayam Singh Yadav in 2023, the RSS and die-hard BJP workers were upset. After all, it was Mulayam Singh Yadav's government in UP that opened fire on Ram Bhakts in Ayodhya on October 30, 1990 after a clash erupted between the karsevaks and the police. The organisers -- the VHP, the RSS and the BJP - wanted a Ram temple at the site of Babri Masjid but it was not yet clear what the karsevaks would do to the mosque. Therefore, the Sangh Parivar was sulking without saying anything about the award to Yadav. It may be recalled that in 2003, RSS ideologue Dattopant Thengadi rejected the Padma Bhushan award until K. B. Hedgewar (RSS founder) and M. S. Golwalkar (RSS ideologue) are offered the Bharat Ratna. The award to Thengri was given by the Vajpayee government. The RSS has been maintaining studied silence on these awards for decades. Therefore, when the Modi government gave Bharat Ratna to Advaniji, it did not offer any comment. But the common BJP worker is extremely elated as Advani is considered a noble man who built the BJP from two Lok Sabha seats to 182 and brought it to power through the Ram movement. Lately, the Modi government has been rewarding party workers and appointment of three chief ministers in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is an indication of this new thinking.

Modi 370 target rattles allies

The other day, Prime Minister Modi declared in the Lok Sabha that the BJP will win 370 seats and the NDA will cross the 400-seats mark. In order to achieve the target, the BJP is now squeezing its allies in Maharashtra, Bihar and elsewhere to get more seats to contest. For example, it wants Nitish Kumar to contest 10-12 seats only instead of 17. The BJP had conceded its own five seats to Nitish Kumar in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Now it wants these back in the 2024 polls. Similarly, the BJP wants to contest at least 30 plus seats. In 2019, the BJP contested 25 seats in alliance with the united Shiv Sena. It has been indicating to NCP led by Ajit Pawar and Sena (Shinde) to contest only those seats where it can win. The last word on these tricky issues is yet to be written.