Fly on the Wall | BJP’s offensive worries NCP

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP’s offensive worries NCP

The BJP seems to have mounted a fresh offensive against the NCP leadership after a lull. Two recent acts have turned heads. The first case relates to Enforcement Directorate action against former Maharashtra minister Anil Deshmukh which forced NCP supremo Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule, Jayant Patil and others to repeatedly come out in his defence. What has made NCP leadership worried is the extremely proactive action by the ED as if the agency is in a hurry after being instructed by political bosses in Delhi. It is not as if the CBI and other agencies have not registered cases against NCP leaders in the past. But such super speed action was never witnessed before. But it is the second action by the Maharashtra BJP against Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar that has raised eyebrows. The BJP’s top Maharashtra leadership recently passed a resolution named Ajit Pawar in the Sachin Waze case. The BJP specifically asked for a CBI probe against Ajit Pawar based on Sachin Waje's letter. Though both- the BJP and NCP down-played the dragging of Ajit Pawar’s name in the case, insiders say that a lot is cooking in Maharashtra’s “unworkable” ruling alliance. The BJP high command seem to be veering round to the view that any alliance with the NCP will not be in the larger interest of the party either in Maharashtra or the country as a whole. The one-day wonder experiment is better be buried and the BJP should launch a full throttled attack on the NCP. Whether any arrangement with the Sena is arrived at or not is a secondary issue. Thus, the twin actions are part of this strategy. Whether this action will result in any future alliance with the Shiv Sena or not, is yet to be seen. PM Modi has taken the Maharashtra affairs in his own hands now and he has the habit of throwing surprises.

BJP’s UP Waterloo

The BJP leadership is extremely worried about UP Assembly polls due next year. Though polls are taking place in Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur too. But BJP’s watershed moment will be what happens next in the “Ulta Pradesh”. The hearts of the Opposition leaders are gladdened after the shock defeat of BJP in West Bengal and Mamata’s tumultuous return in the most ugly poll battles. The BJP had many handicaps in West Bengal, the foremost being the language barrier. None of the top BJP campaigners was familiar with the local language. The BJP had not projected anybody as its CM face and it had no grass root presence either in villages. However, they forget that UP is not West Bengal. Here, the BJP is already ruling the state and Yogi Adityanath is a tough CM. His graph went up in UP ever since the message went around that he did not buckle under the pressure of Central leadership. Secondly, the BJP has a battery of local leaders and no outsider tag can be fixed. In West Bengal, the BJP had a fierce and personally honest adversary like Mamata. Despite best efforts, she could not be dislodged through defection or other means. In UP, the Opposition leaders have all sorts of corruption charges being probed by CBI, ED, Income-Tax and others.

In the given scenario, the UP Assembly poll may be as polarized as we witnessed in West Bengal. It is also gradually emerging that Akhilesh Yadav of Samajwadi Party will emerge as the rallying point of the Opposition and Congress, RLD and others will come a cropper. The Jat community will go against the BJP due to farmers’ agitation and may lean towards Akhilesh Yadav along with the Yadavs and Muslims. Even Mayawati may not be able to swing the SCs’ votes as she used to in the past. These factors are worrying the BJP high command despite BJP being on the strong footing. The outcome will have a bearing on the Presidential poll due July 2022 too. Thus, a lot is at stake in UP for the BJP and PM Modi.

Uttarakhand: A new pain in the neck

While mystery continues to shroud as to why sitting Uttarakhand CM Trivendra Singh Rawat was shown the door in a mid-night coup by the high command, the incumbent Tirath Singh Rawat finding it difficult to choose his Assembly seat. He has to get elected as an MLA before September 9. He can contest from Gangotri or Haldwani. Both fell vacant after the demise of sitting MLAs due to Covid. Trivendra Singh Rawat can also be asked to vacate his Doiwala seat and Tirath Singh can contest from there. But Tirath Singh is scared of contesting a byelection in the current adverse political scenario. The Election Commission is quiet and so is BJP high command.

After Assam, Manipur on the Edge now

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Lokmat Exclusive story

After Assam, Manipur on the Edge now

Permits for non-Manipuris who came after 1951

Modi in a Bind, Najma worried

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Aug. 24

After Assam, its Manipur on the edge, thanks to the Manipur People's Bill passed by the BJP-ruled government proposing to shut the doors who came after 1951. If the cut-off date in the case of Assam was 1971, Manipur went a step further by fixing 1951 for being declared as natives. Rest of them will have to go back or seek special entry permits.

The Bill has put the Modi government in a bind and a worried Governor Najma Heptulla rushed to Delhi last week to apprise the Centre of the gravity of the situation. The Chief Minister, N Biren Singh, who cobbled a majority to form the government, insisted that the bill be cleared without delay.

Najma Heptulla called on the Prime Minister and held detailed discussion on the worrisome situation in Manipur. What transpired between the two is not immediately known. But the Centre cautioned her to take her own time in deciding the issue. Najma Heptulla returned to Imphal and has decided to “sit-over” the bill.

The Manipur People's Bill pending with the Governor proposed that all those who came to Manipur after 1951 will not be considered as native and will lose the right to vote and own property and settle. This has affected not only the illegal immigrants from Bangla Desh, but also thousands of businessmen and workers who went there during the 60s and 70s to set up businesses from Mumbai, West Bengal, Rajasthan and played a key role in the development of the state.

A senior official in the Union Home Ministry said that “The Manipur People's Bill is like an old wine in new bottle”. The State had passed a similar bill under the nomenclature of Protection of Manipur People’s Bill which was withdrawn and emerged in a new form to regulate the entry of “outsiders” on lines of the British-era regulatory regime.

The BJP-ruled state government was unwilling to consider the plea that Manipur was given statehood in January 1972 and therefore, the cut off date should be 1971 and not 1951. But it buckled under the pressure of dominant Meities community. Interestingly, there there is no National Register of Citizens of 1951 in Manipur. When asked “How will they prove the natives” of 1951, the Chief Minister had no answer.

As per the new provision, all non-Manipuris will have to register themselves within one month of the notification of the law. They will be issued a pass extendable up to six months to stay within the state territory. While those who have trade licences can get a pass extendable up to five years, which will have to be renewed every year. Any outsider visiting Manipur would need a pass for entry. The Chief Minister has conveyed to the party high command that the law will help the BJP to grab both Lok Sabha seats to the party and majority in the Assembly due to the support of the dominant community.

Ends

PMO worried over SC judgment on Manipur killings

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

PMO worried over SC judgment on Manipur killings

Security forces demoralized

SLP may be filed soon

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 29

Extremely worried over the stance of the Supreme Court that criminal cases be filed against army personnel and security forces for killings in Manipur during the operations for killing the innocents, the Centre is likely to file a Special Leave Petition (SLP) in the apex court.

The Centre reviewed the situation arising out of an order of the Supreme Court bench headed by Justice Madan B Lokur in July 2017 where it had directed the CBI to constitute an SIT to probe alleged fake encounters by the security forces in Manipur. The two-judge bench order of the SC created a piquant situation for the army in Manipur which is fighting against the ultras in extremely grave situation. The SC order also had a bearing in anti-terrorists operations in troubled-torn Jammu & kashmir where massive operations are underway. But the security forces have pointed out that it would be extremely difficult for them to continue with the operations if the sword of criminal cases registered against them would hang over their heads.

The situation became grave when the SC bench summoned the CBI director seeking his explanation for slow pace of probe against the security forces. A couple of such petitions are also pending in the Jammu & Kashmir high court in the wake of SC order. The army and police is battling every day with the NGOs and human right activists who are filing contempt petitions against them. This has demoralised the forces.

Army Chief Gen. Bipin Rawat has brought the seriousness of the situation to the notice of the government and the National Security Adviser Ajit Doval is also of the view that the SC judgment needs a immediate review.

It is in this background that a high-level meeting was held in the Prime Minister's Office. It is not immediately known whether the PM was present at the meeting or not. But it has been decided that a review petition be filed against this judgment immediately.

It may be mentioned that a bench of Justices M B Lokur and U U Lalit has summoned the Director CBI tomorrow in SC for the delay in investigation into the Manipur fake encounter cases.

The bench said it was “not satisfied” and added that it “would like to hear from Director CBI what can be done to expedite investigation and chargesheet can be filed”. The court asked him to be present at 2 pm on July 30. The court was upset when the CBI submitted that out of a total of 41 cases, investigation was complete in seven. Of the seven, approval has been received for filing chargesheets in two cases and approval for two others was expected in next few days. There are such cases in Jammu & kashmir too. But no SIT has been formed such operations in state.

Ends

All eyes on Gujrat’s three RS seats

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special report

All eyes on Gujrat’s three RS seats

Anandiben Patel Vice President contender ?

  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, March 31

  

The Capital is agog with intense speculation that BJP president Amit Shah and Anandiben Patel, former Gujrat Chief Minister may quit as MLA after the Presidential polls due to be held in July this year.

Since MLAs in states along with MPs constitute electorate college for the Presidential polls, both have chosen to stay put. But the moment presidential poll is over, they will quit. Interestingly, both will have their own reasons to quit their respective seats in the Gujrat Assembly.

Highly placed sources close to the BJP president say that Amit Shah will prefer to come to the Rajya Sabha in August when biennial polls for three RS seats will be held in Gujrat. BJP’s Smriti Irani, Union Textiles Minister, and Dilipbhai Pandya ill be completing their six year terms as MPs from Gujrat. Ahmad Patel of the Congress will also complete his term in the Rajya Sabha. Given the composition of the State Assembly, the BJP will be able to retain its two seats while the Congress will get one seat easily.

While Amit Shah coming to the Rajya Sabha is considered a foregone conclusion, it’s the second seat that has led to intense political speculation within the party. While a section of the BJP says that Anandiben Patel may be brought in Rajya Sabha for the second seat and get a Cabinet berth and Smriti Irani may move to UP to occupy the seat to be vacated by Manohar Parrikar who is now Chief Minister Goa. Parrikar is Rajya Sabha MP from UP at present.

But what has caused enormous interest in political circles is the talk that Anandiben Patel may even be brought in as Vice President of India. The BJP and NDA have a clear majority to get its own candidate elected as Vice President. Though various names are being mentioned for the post including that of M Venkiah Naidu, Minister for Urban Development, Manipur Governor Najma Heptulla, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Speaker of the Lok Sabha Sumitra Mahajan, Social Justice Minister Thawar Chand Gahlot, P Sadasivam, former Chief Justice of India and Governor of Kerala and others. But Anandben Patel’s claim to the post is stronger compared to others, these sources say.

She was removed as Chief Minister and has been cooling her heels quietly for long. She herself is a Patidar and was considered to PM Modi who anointed her as his successor in Gujrat. Since Gujrat Assembly polls will be round the corner, her elevation will help the BJP during the elections as well.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

So it looks like the time for Rahul Gandhi has arrived! There are two reasons why it cannot wait anymore. First, though the Congress has given a general impression of stolidity after its recent defeat in Kerala and Assam, the mood of its senior leaders is unpredictable. After Assam, a wave of exodus from the party is in the offing in various states. In Chhattisgarh, the exit of Ajit Jogi signals a grave development for the Congress.

A further twist to the plot came with veteran leader Digvijaya Singh speaking of the need for a “deep surgery” in the party. Its a metaphor that, in the context of Congress party, can only imply an alleged dysfunction in its reigning ‘family’. It got the party so rattled that Kamal Nath, a politician known to hold his cards close to his chest, readily appeared on a Karan Thapar TV interview to erase the notion that there could really be something amiss in the party. There is no possibility of a “surgery”, Nath reassured and Rahul Gandhi would take charge of the party in “due course”.

It is clear that the party does not have much time on hand. Elections to Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa fall due early next year, and with that will the curtain be rung up for the general elections in 2019. While all the five states going to poll next year are crucial, Uttar Pradesh is the bellwether for the two so-called national parties, BJP and Congress, as it represents the heart of north India. In the south, accounting for 131 of India’s 543 Lok Sabha seats, state parties seem firmly in the saddle everywhere except in Kerala, where too the Congress seems in terminal disarray. In east India, BJP is far from blooming; its recent electoral victory in Assam hinged on the support of regional groups. Elsewhere, politics is strictly regional, be it in Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal and the smaller NE states. And, with a power vacuum emerging in both Congress and BJP across western India, the contest actually boils down to the battle for Uttar Pradesh. In 2014, Narendra Modi grabbed 73 Lok Sabha seats in the state because his doughty campaign, and over-arching appeal that rose above castes (though not communities). Though his success was limited in eastern and southern India, he won most of the Lok Sabha seats as he could conquer the north Indian roadblock of caste. In Uttar Pradesh Modi’s candidates won the votes of both Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav in large numbers. It was much like the triumph of Indira Gandhi in 1971 or Rajiv Gandhi in 1985—the two other elections in recent times where votes were cast in response to a sense of national exigency.

If Congress has to return to power in 2019, its moment of truth is now. It must test if a member of its ‘first family’ is capable of creating, across a mini-India like Uttar Pradesh, the same over-arching appeal as in 1971, 1985 or 2014. If the experiment succeeds then, from a shockingly low of 44 as in 2014, it can hope to recover to 200 or even more. But numbers short of that can at best raise coalition hopes. It’s of little use as BJP can easily beat it at the game, given the huge resources at its command. In 2004, the government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee lost power as, after the Gujarat riots of 2002, other parties deserted BJP. Modi regained Vajpayee’s baton decade later by appealing directly to the people, not to political bosses with a war chest unheard of in electoral history.

The Congress has only two cards: Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra. Is Rahul competent to ride a wave of hope and dreams? Party elders are not sure, whatever they may say in public as loyal followers of the ‘high command’.  Rahul and Amarinder Singh were not on the best of terms till the other day, but now Singh is suddenly back in Rahul’s favour. The party vice president had ignored the sober advice of many Kerala leaders to remove corruption-tainted Oomen Chandy and octogenarian Tarun Gogoi in Assam from chief minister’s post. But he did not listen, and the lapse cost his party dearly and reignited the BJP with a win in  Assam. The blunder was costly for the Congress. But Rahul remains unruffled as he feels politics is a wheel and what goes up has to come down. Modi sold dreams in 2014 and he cannot repeat the same in 2019. He is bent upon cleansing his own party and wants to run it like a corporate house. He believes that there is no permanent “loyalty” in politics. He is willing to wait for a longer time that what political pundits think, five years or even ten years. But his ageing Party leaders are in a hurry.   

Therefore, the clamour for Priyanka is mounting.  It is no wonder that BJP has sniffed it right and working hard for a “Congress (read Family) Mukt Bharat”. The BJP is digging up Robert Vadra’s alleged links with an land and arms dealers. In the Uttar Pradesh election, if the coin flips in Priyanka’s favour, it should be the forerunner of the Grand Old Party being on the march with a new icon, that of Priyanka Gandhi, whom many old-timers compare to her illustrious grandmother, at least in her looks. It’s a different matter that Rahul is not giving up.

Be it Priyanka or Rahul, either of the Gandhi children,  they cannot be pinned down to any major caste or community group. The Gandhis will therefore carry a larger gamut of following than BJP as they are ready to play a second fiddle to like-minded regional parties.