Congress dissidents in disarray, mending fences

Sonia not to summon “Physical CWC” meeting

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

New Delhi, Oct 5

Irrespective of rhetoric by the G-23 dissidents against the leadership, the party high command is unruffled and moving ahead at its own pace. In fact, the way Captain Amarinder Singh was sent packing in Punjab, has made some of the dissidents mend fences.

Haryana's Congress stalwart Bhupinder Singh Hooda may be a signatory of the G-23 letter to Sonia Gandhi and at times airing his views. But his son and Rajya Sabha MP, Deepender Singh Hooda is standing with the Gandhis like a rock. He even got detained when he went along with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to Lakhimpur Kheri (UP) to protest against the atrocities on farmers.

Anand Sharma, deputy leader of the Congress in Rajya Sabha has been maintaining studied silence for weeks together and did not join issue with Kapil Sibal who fired a huge salvo against the leadership a couple of days ago. In fact, none of the other senior leaders joined ranks with him, be it; Prithviraj Chavan, Mukul Wasnik, Shashi Tharoor and others. Even Manish Tewari was very guarded.

Some of the signatories like Jitin Prasada have already joined the BJP.

Ghulam Nabi Azad may have demanded summoning of the Congress Working Committee meeting, but Sonia Gandhi is unlikely to oblige.

A senior Congress leader told Lokmat that Sonia Gandhi won't commit the cardinal mistake that late Sitaram Kesari did by calling a CWC meeting and faced his own removal. Though Kesari was unwilling to call a meeting of the CWC in 1998 but he was persuaded by seniors like Dr Manmohan Singh that everything would be normal. In a virtual meeting, the command and control is operated through a remote button and members can speak only when authorized. Therefore, there is no question of any “physical meeting”, said the source.

Fly On the wall | Modi's Kamraj Plan

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi's Kamraj Plan

Prime Minister Narendra Modi perhaps took a leaf out of the ‘Kamraj Plan’ when he dropped 12 Union Ministers from his Council of Ministers on July 7 and virtually dismissed three BJP Chief Ministers in a row. The shock treatment to party seniors by Modi was no different than what Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru gave to his colleagues who were part of the freedom struggle with him. Nehru was the first Prime Minister who executed major political surgery in 1963, more than 58 years ago. Nehru asked all senior ministers of his government to give up ministerial posts. Be it Lal Bahadur Shastri, Jagjivan Ram or Morarji Desai, they were all shown the door. Nehru sacked six Chief Ministers, including the most powerful ones like Biju Patnaik (Odisha) and S.K. Patil (Maharashtra). More than 16 years into power, Nehru's charisma was on the wane particularly after the 1962 Chinese invasion. Though V K Krishna Menon had been removed as India's Defence Minister, the Congress was facing a stiff challenge at the hands of many stalwarts in the Opposition parties in Parliament. It was in this backdrop that K Kamraj, CM, Tamil Nadu, submitted a plan to Nehru and offered to quit his post. He wanted all senior ministers and CMs to quit and work for the party. Nehru accepted the Kamraj Plan. Later, Kamaraj was rewarded with the party president’s post. Kamaraj persuaded Nehru to bring Lal Bahadur Shastri back into the government sometime later. Perhaps it was part of a succession plan because Shastri was made a Minister without Portfolio, virtually working as Deputy Prime Minister. It is a different matter that Shastri died an early death after becoming the PM in 1964. Indira Gandhi took over with the blessings and support of K Kamraj in 1966. It is an irony that the same Indira Gandhi showed Kamraj the door who became part of the ‘Syndicate” to oust her in a bitter power struggle.

Difference between the two surgeries

Old timers say there is a huge difference between what Nehru did in 1963 and what Modi executed first in 2014 and in 2021. The difference between the method, procedure and style is clearly visible. It must be remembered here that none of the ministers and CM shown the door by Nehru were senior to him. If Nehru was a product of the freedom struggle, Modi had also acquired every post and won after a bitter struggle. His early life in RSS is also a testimony of his sacrifices too. However, Nehru was in a different league and came from a rich heritage and did everything with finesse. The old timers tell me that Nehru telephoned each one of the ministers on the chopping block himself and explained why their services are needed for the party. They were all given party work too. In the instant case, no Union Minister received a call either from the PM or the Union Home Minister. The unpleasant task was given to the BJP president, J P Nadda to ring up each one of 12 Union Ministers hours before the swearing-in-ceremony. It also transpires that telephones to the new appointees were made by B L Santosh, general secretary (organization). Except for Thaawar Chand Gehlot, no Union Minister was given any work even after 45 days. No Central leader has talked to any one of them who are cooling their heels. Majority of them are Lok Sabha MPs and facing huge embarrassment while visiting their constituencies as party workers keep posing difficult questions to them. During the 2014 surgery, the cut-off date was 75 years of age. But the 2021 surgery, the cut-off age has come down to 66 years. The BJP insiders say that Modi plans to install a whole new set of leadership at the Centre and states before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Modi himself is turning 75 years on September 17, 2025. It is said that Modi is a 'Saint in politics” and capable of springing surprises. Is the 2021 surgery part of a succession plan? No one knows.

Kamraj bug hits Congress too

Sonia Gandhi failed to implement the much needed 'Kamraj Plan' to send deadwood and troublesome ministers packing in 2010 or even in 2012 as Rahul Gandhi was unwilling to take over the reins for some strange reasons. She was bitten by the P V Narasimha Rao experience and continued with her best bet i.e. Manmohan Singh. Ten years later, the Kamraj bug hit the Congress and Sonia Gandhi cracked her whip to send Captain Amrinder Singh packing. Obviously, she is clearing the decks for her son who is now batting on the front foot.

Fly on the wall | Pawar’s mysterious Silence in Rajya Sabha

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Pawar’s mysterious Silence in Rajya Sabha

The entire political class is baffled about the mysterious silence of NCP supremo Sharad Pawar when the Rajya Sabha discussed three farm laws for days together. It was expected that the tallest farmer leader from Baramati who was UPA’s Agriculture Minister for ten long years, will put the record straight. If a leader of his stature had spoken, farmers and the government would have listened to him. He is perhaps the only one who could have told the farmers to end the agitation as farm laws had been stayed for 18 months and has the stature to tell the government also to mend fences and find a way out. After all, it was Pawar who had brought many agricultural reforms during his tenure at the Centre and earlier in Maharashtra. Pawar was very much stationed in Delhi during the session of Parliament. But he maintained a mysterious silence in Rajya Sabha and chose to field Praful Patel instead. Though former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda who takes pride in calling himself “poor farmer from Karnataka” spoke in Rajya Sabha. But he has lost his rhythm and touch. Pawar could have made the difference. But he looked the other way. Why?? No answers are coming from the NCP.

Why PM is angry with Babus?

Ever since Modi came to power in 2014, the Babus are the worst sufferers. Gone are the days when they used to rule the roost and ministers used to eat out of their hands. In some of the ministries, the bureaucrats used to work as brokers between private players and politicians to reap the harvest. They were partying in 5 star hotels, playing golf, coming to the office at will etc. PM Modi talked of this Lutyens Delhi culture in 2014. Since then, Modi has been tightening the noose and Babus are now a nameless & faceless class. The Lutyens’ Delhi does not recognize when PM’s Principal Secretary PK Mishra takes a walk in the Lodhi Gardens. Modi wants to end Babus direct interaction with the businessmen completely and doggedly pursuing ‘faceless’ resolution of grievances. The Babus were crestfallen when Modi had a dig at them in the Lok Sabha saying they are not experts to run airlines, chemical or companies and everything. No PM has questioned their ability to deliver. Obviously, Modi was peeved that Babus are creating one hurdle after the other in the implementation of his policies. He blames them for sabotaging his vigorous divestment program and mobilizing Rs two lakh crores by selling PSUs. Modi feels Babus are to be blamed for it and gave them public bashing. Modi is now hoping for a Bonanza this year.

Rahul calling shots, G-23 crest fallen

Rahul Gandhi is neither Congress president nor Parliamentary Party leader. He has declared he won’t hold any post and rather no Gandhi will hold it either. But he continues to call the shots in the party, Parliament and makes no bones about it. He doesn’t mince words and is rather ruthless in getting things done. The Group of 23 dissident leaders had thought that he would be conciliatory to them after Priyanka Gandhi’s meetings with Ghulam Nabi Azad and Anand Sharma. Both are part of G-23 letter writers. But their hopes were dashed when Sonia Gandhi sent a letter appointing Mallikarjun Kharge as Leader of Opposition in place of Ghulam Nabi Azad three days before his retirement. It sent Anand Sharma sulking who was in the race for the top post. The shocker came when Nana Patole was appointed as Maharashtra PCC chief. Now the word is that Patole may be given a ministerial berth making one of the Congress ministers resigning. The issue was broached when Patole met Rahul in Delhi. It is said that one Congress minister will quit to make room for Patole. No final word has emanated from 12 Tughlaq Road, the official residence of Rahul Gandhi in this regard. K C Venugopal is gradually replacing late Ahmad Patel in AICC.

The lone winner

The NaMo administration cleared 26 IAS officers of 1988 & 1989 batch to be promoted as Secretary and 14 as Secretary Equivalent. Maharashtra was lucky as Rajesh Agrawal was the lone officer figuring in the list of 40. But he too was made Secretary Equivalent and not as full secretary. Not a good sign for the richest and one of the largest states.

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra quarantined, Cook Covid +ve

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Priyanka Gandhi

New Delhi, Sep 14

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, AICC general secretary incharge of UP is understood to have been quarantined.

Highly placed sources in the Gandhi household say that since her cook has been found Covid positive, she has been advised home quarantined until September 21.

It was due to this sudden development that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had to abandon her plans to accompany her mother Sonia Gandhi to the USA.

At the last minute, Rahul Gandhi had to chip in and go with the mother for her annual checkup. Rahul Gandhi had to skip the Parliament session though he was scheduled to take on the government on the very first day during the Zero Hour.

It is also emerging now that Priyanka Gandhi will shift from her Gurgaon residence and shift to Lutyen’s Delhi flat soon. Her new address will be a duplex apartment in Sujan Singh Park facing Ambassador Hotel near Khan Market.

The complex was built by author-editor Khushwant Singh’s father Sir Sobha Singh. Priyanka will be staying in the apartment as a tenant. It is learnt that Rahul Gandhi will come back early from the USA while Sonia Gandhi will stay back and later be joined by Priyanka Gandhi.

Asthana may be CBI Chief! Fly on the Wall

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Asthana may be CBI Chief! 

The three months long Rhea Chakraborty saga may finally come to an end after the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) doused the political fire in Bihar by arresting her. The graph of Rakesh Asthana, DG, NCB has jumped manifold in the eyes of political masters in Delhi. Asthana has succeeded where CBI Director R K Shukla and Enforcement Director Sanjay Kumar Mishra failed in the task even after 50 hours of grilling running for weeks together. A top ED officer who specially flew down from Delhi to Mumbai and part of the extensive grilling told his bosses: Sorry Sir! Not an iota of evidence.” Thus, the NCB stepped in. This column had said last week itself that NCB will arrest Rhea. Insiders tell us that Asthana’s prospects of becoming new CBI chief have brightened when Shukla retires early next year. Asthana had been extremely unhappy ever since he was shunted out from the CBI last year.

Click here to Read complete article here

Sonia offensive, Dissidents defensive 

The 23 dissident Congress leaders are running for a cover after raising a banner of revolt against the Gandhis. Instead of buckling under the pressure, Congress’ interim president Sonia Gandhi has gone on the offensive. If she shocked dissidents by appointing Rahul loyalists in key parliamentary panels, she humiliated a few by dropping them from UP committees. As if this was not enough, Akhilesh Prasad Singh, Rajya Sabha MP and Bihar Campaign Committee chief was dropped from the powerful Bihar Election Committee. If sources are to be believed, the G-23 is a house divided with Mukul Wasnik, Manish Tewari and Shashi Tharoor singing different tunes. Tewari went public recently saying the letter’s drafting could have been better. Obviously, it’s a dig at Anand Sharma who drafted the letter. Tharoor is buying peace as BJP has no strong presence in Kerala while Mukul Wasnik has his own reasons for backtracking. Prithviraj Chavan who owed his rise to the post of Maharashtra Chief Minister to Sonia Gandhi, has gone into hiding after raising a banner of revolt.

Whispers galore over Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah is back at his Krishna Menon Marg residence and recouping after suffering from Covid and fatigue. Being Prime Minister Modi’s Man Friday, Shah has been batting from the front foot. But for the past some time, he has been away from public glare.

The Fly learns that he is fully active and clearing files at a faster pace though avoiding attending office. The gossip mongers in Lutyen’s Delhi have all kinds of tails like Amit Shah being upset for not being invited to the Ram Janmabhoomi foundation stone laying ceremony, appointment of C R Patil as Gujrat BJP chief etc. etc. Insiders assert there is no truth as the equation between the PM-HM remains strong. The PM inquired about his health on a daily basis since August 2 when he was admitted to Medanta and visited him after he returned from AIIMS. These sources say, “Modi-Shah relationship is like that of Ram and Hanuman and no power on Earth can separate them.”

Selling Air India Herculean Task

India’s flagship Air India is first on the block among the 26 PSUs to be sold before March 31 next year. While there are many takers for BPCL and others, selling Air India is turning out to be a Herculean task for the Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. It transpires that the House of TATAs is somewhat disinclined. The TATAs already operate Air Asia & Vistara and CEO N Chandrasekaran is reluctant to put in this kind of money in the aviation business. However, two gulf nations have shown interest riding on the back of cordial relations with PM Modi. The government is keen to mop up at least two lakh crores from the PSU sale during 2020-21 to bridge 8% Budget deficit.

Sonia may offer step down on Monday, May appeal to elect a non-Gandhi

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

New Delhi, Aug. 22

Congress Interim president Sonia Gandhi may offer to step down from her post at the meeting of the Congress Working Committee on Monday next.

Highly placed sources in the party told Lokmat tonight that Sonia Gandhi has made up her mind and informed a select group of leaders about her intentions to make room for a non-Gandhi to occupy the post. This in a way, is bowing to the wishes of her son Rahul Gandhi who took moral responsibility for the debacle of the party in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and quit. He also desired that a non-Gandhi be elected to run the party.

But the entire CWC rejected the decision and later elected Sonia Gandhi an interim president. However, the experiment failed and now it is emerging that an upset Sonia Gandhi may offer to quit. Though she has full one more year to go an Interim president of the Congress, she is pained and may offer to quit. 

It is reliably learnt that some of the senior Congress leaders including Kapil Sibal and Anand Sharma among others have written a letter to Sonia Gandhi about the state of the party and how it should be reorganised. 

When contacted, no senior leader was willing to comment. Kapil Sibal did not respond to phone calls and neither Anand Sharma responded. Ghulam Nabi Azad has also been upset as he had not been renominated to the Rajya Sabha and may not remain Leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha. However, Mallikarjun Kharge, senior-most member of the CWC and Rajya Sabha MP told Lokmat over the phone that he would participate in the virtual meeting on Monday.  He declined to say anything more exceot that he is a loyal soldier of the party.

Pawar, Stalin, nixed Congress proposals - Lokmat Exclusive

Sonia wanted "physical not virtual" meeting with PM 

All-party meeting on China

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

New Delhi, June 20

No Opposition party leader supported the idea floated by the Congress that the Prime Minister should hold a face-to-face meeting rather than “virtual meeting.” The Congress wanted the PM should call leaders physically for effective interaction on thorny Galwan Valley crisis.

But no one agreed. Nationalist Congress president Sharad Pawar rejected the proposal out-right saying “virtual meeting is as good as physical meeting in the times of Covid.”

A senior NCP leader, on the condition of anonymity told Lokmat that Pawar Saheb reminded that Sonia Gandhi had herself held a virtual meeting with 22 leaders on May 22.

CPI’s Secretary D Raja told Lokmat over the phone confirmed saying, “I personally had no objection to the physical meeting. But other leaders were perhaps not willing,” he said.

DMK leader M K Stalin did not agree either. It transpires that a top aide of Sonia Gandhi contacted leaders personally after the government initiated move to hold the meeting on June 19. But there was no positive response from leading parties.

It also transpires that they were also uncomfortable with the very line the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi had taken on the Indo-China violent clashes.

This was reflected in the meeting yesterday where a combative Sonia Gandhi raised several tough questions and accused the government of many failed opportunities. Sonia spoke first and wanted to set the tone immediately after External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar made the presentation tracing the history of conflict.

But she stood virtually isolated as neither Sharad Pawar and nor DMK supported her line of attack. Pawar said, “issues such as whether soldiers carried arms are decided by international agreements, and everyone should respect such sensitive matters.” Obviously, he was distancing himself from Rahul Gandhi line. Stalin also supported the government on the issue including most Opposition parties.

Clamour for Rahul Gandhi's return as Congress Chief grows

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

special report

Clamour for Rahul Gandhi's return as Congress Chief grows

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec 13

Congress Interim president Sonia Gandhi has renewed her efforts to persuade Rahul Gandhi to take the reins of the party once again.

Rahul Gandhi who had virtually gone into a shell, stopped meeting party leaders, attending meetings and remaining absent from Lok Sabha, has been active again.

He has not only been active on twitter but meeting with leaders again. He also attended the Speaker, Om Birla's customary tea party this afternoon after the Lok Sabha was adjourned sine-die.

He has agreed to address the Congress rally tomorrow at Ramlila grounds – a brainchild of Sonia Gandhi, aimed at bringing focus on Rahul Gandhi. Enthused by the formation of the Opposition government in Maharashtra, slowdown in the economy and growing protests against the CAB, Sonia Gandhi decided to hold a major rally in the Capital.

There are reports that leaders after leaders of the party will make a plea to Rahul Gandhi to take back his resignation at tomorrow's rally. Though the official purpose of the rally is to attack on the NDA government for its failure on all front and show to the people that Congress is an credible alternative, the covert purpose is to persuade Rahul Gandhi to listen to the voices of leaders and withdraw his resignation.

Rahul Gandhi did not listen to her advice and abruptly resigned taking responsibility for the rout of the party immediately after the Lok Sabha polls. Though leaders present at the Congress Working Committee tried hard to persuade him not to press for his resignation, he insisted on resigning. Its a different matter that his resignation was never accepted by the working committee and pending his absence, Sonia Gandhi took interim charge of the party.

Several senior party functionaries including Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Baghel, chief ministers of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have openly asked Rahul Gandhi to take back resignation.

Though Sonia Gandhi as Interim chief has improved the Congress graph in several states including Haryana and Maharashtra. But she wants to relinquish the charge due to various reasons including health reasons.

All eyes are now set on Jharkhand, where Assembly poll process is on and the party is upbeat.

Ends 

Rahul Gandhi’s absence Baffles all ……..

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Gandhi’s absence Baffles all ……..

 Goes Abroad again 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Nov 24

Rahul Gandhi's continued absence in parliament since November 18 when the Winter session began, has left everyone baffled. Most likely, he will not show up in Lok Sabha tomorrow as well.

If sources are to be believed, Rahul Gandhi has left for an unknown destination abroad on Friday night. No one has a clue of when he will come back so far.

He stay put at his 12 Tughlaq Lane residence throughout the past week and did not mingle with the party leaders. He did not participate in any of the meetings called by Interim party president Sonia Gandhi relating to Maharashtra either. Though some media reports attributed him saying he was against any tie up with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. But his Man-Friday and party general secretary K C Venugopal and political “Guru” A K Antony gave the go-ahead for such a tie up at the CWC meeting.

The party leaders say in private that Rahul Gandhi is not responding to mobile calls & SMS messages too. In fact, Sonia Gandhi has been left alone to fight a tough battle all alone with Rahul Gandhi completely distancing from political developments.

Sources say that he is very dejected and feeling disappointed that things did not move the way he wanted in the party and leaders did not follow him. It was largely because of this very reason that he pushed off to Brazil on a private visit after coming back from Cambodia. He returned to Delhi on November 15 (Friday) and left the country again on November 22.

Rahul Gandhi did  not go to Shakti Sthal, where tributes were being paid on the birth anniversary of late Indira Gandhi on November 19. He did not step out even to go to Parliament to the Central Hall where floral tributes were paid by all top leaders of all political parties.

As many as 10 questions were listed against the name of Wayanad MP last week alone. But he did not show up to ask questions listed against his name. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla noticed Rahul Gandhi's absence and said he had wanted to give him the chance to raise his question.

Rahul Gandhi is serving his fourth term as a Lok Sabha MP.

Ends

Why delay to chose new Congress President ?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special Report 

Why delay to chose new Congress President ?

Sonia hopeful of Rahul's return

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 27

The suspense continues over the delay in choosing a new Congress president after Rahul Gandhi abruptly quit as party chief on May 25.  Though it was widely reported that the Congress Working Committee will meet this week to select a “working president”. But Rahul Gandhi left for the USA leaving everyone high and dry. Rahul Gandhi was back in the Capital on Thursday last but there are no signs of a CWC meet. 

Highly placed sources say that the CWC meeting may not take place early. These sources say that UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi is in no hurry either to get a new “working president” elected. She wants to give enough time to Rahul Gandhi to ponder over his resignation. She believes that Rahul Gandhi quit the post in a huff and  anger in the aftermath of massive defeat of the party in the Lok Sabha polls on May 23. Rahul Gandhi was extremely angry as he had expected the party to win at least  150 Lok Sabha seats. His assessment was based on data analytics head Praveen Chakravarty  who had convinced him of achieving the target and also reassured him that “Chowkidar Chore Hai” slogan is successful. Several state Congress leaders had told Rahul Gandhi of party getting good number of seats in their respective states. It was in this background that he went ballistic at the CWC meet for the poor showing and held them responsible too. He tendered his own resignation and had expected that they too will follow suit. But nothing of the sort happened and things came to a standstill.

1+4 formula to end Congress crisis

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

1+4 formula to end Congress crisis

Four vice presidents under one Interim president 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 12

Amidst contuning crisis in Karnataka, a formula is underway to resolve the vacuum in the 150 year grand old party. If reports are to be believed, final touches are being given to the “one plus four formula”

to end 50-day old crisis which began with the sudden resignation of Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

After a series of deliberations within the Gandhi family members involving Mrs Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi and family loyalists like A K Antony, Dr Manmohan Singh and a couple of others, the 1+4 formula is finding favour.

This formula is that an interim president be appointed by the Congress working committee (CWC) until the organisational elections are completed as per the constitution of the party. It is now clear that the CWC meeting will be called sometime next week as the formula has taken a shape and nitty-gritty is being fixed. The CWC is the party's top decision making body and empowered to take all the decisions in the current crisis-ridden situation. The CWC may be held at the instance of Motilal Vora, senior-most general secretary of the party or Mukul Wasnik, who is currently general secretary (organisation).

With UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi firmly refusing to lead the party as interim president and Priyanka Gandhi is also being ruled out, Mallikarjun Kharge's name is finding favour. Since A K Antony firmly refused to don the mantle and Sushil Kumar Shinde has lagged behind, its Kharge who has emerged stronger given the situation. .

Once Kharge's name is decided, there will be four Vice Presidents under him representing four regions- East, West, North & South. This is what Rahul Gandhi is reported to have tossed the idea before his confidants when he met them last week.

One of the Vice presidents could be Priyanka Vadra (North), Gaurav Gogoi (North East), Mukul Wasnik (West) or Jyotiraditya Scindia and K C Venugopal (South). Venugopal was incharge of Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the Lok sabha polls and came out with flying colours.

There was also a suggestion that Capt. Amrinder Singh be brought in as Interim president. But he is disinclined due to poor health and quitting the CM's post at this juncture. Though there are many in the party who believe that his acceptability is larger at this juncture and he would be able to give a fitting reply to the BJP too. In the event of Priyanka Gandhi opting out, the name of Selja is doing the rounds.

Fly on the Wall : Babri case may not be fast tracked, CJI blinks

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Babri case may not be fast tracked, CJI blinks

It is now clearly emerging that the Ayodhya case hearing in the Supreme Court is unlikely to be fast-tracked. Contrary to popular perception that the Chief Justice of India Dipak Mishra will constitute the bench and commence hearing of the highly emotive dispute and settle the case before he retires on October 2. It was expected by the ruling BJP leadership that the SC will constitute the bench and commence hearing within the week of its opening. But now it is emerging that the CJI Justice Dipak Mishra will not play ball and the case will be taken up in due course. In the run-up to the 2019, all eyes are on the Supreme Court that it will commence hearing the contentious Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid title dispute. Before the vacation, when the Ram Bhakts pressed for a day-to-day hearing, Muslim litigants in the case had expressed strong reservations against it. Senior advocate Kapil Sibal had pleaded that the appeals should be deferred until the next Lok Sabha elections. Government lawyers have been nudging the court to decide the issue at the earliest. Without giving a clue of his thinking, CJI Mishra adjourned the case to be taken up after the long summer vacation. Now two weeks have gone by and the date and the bench is nowhere in sight. Highly placed sources say that unless something dramatic happens, the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri land dispute case is headed to the south.

Govt. disappointed with Justice A K Sikri

There was a time when ruling BJP leaders were throwing hints that the sitting Supreme Court judge, Ranjan Gogoi may be superseded after CJI Dipak Mishra retires in October. It was also whispered that Justice A K Sikri who is fourth in the line of succession will be the new Chief Justice of India instead. The government was peeved with Ranjan Gogoi as he had addressed a joint press conference with three other brother judges and questioned the functioning of the SC under the leadership of CJI. Indirectly, the judges had taken a dig at the working of the Modi dispensation in influencing the judiciary. But things didn't work the way the government may have thought. When the Karnataka Governor's decision to allow 15 days time to the BS Yedurappa to prove his majority on the floor of the state assembly was challenged, the matter was listed before the bench of Justice A K Sikri. PM Modi made a personal phone call to former AG Mukul Rohtagi to appear for the BJP and seek relief. Sensing that the BJP is losing the game, Rohtagi pleaded with the bench to give time until Monday. But Justice Sikri's bench was unmoved and no relief was granted. The BJP lost its face and credibility. As if this was not enough, Justice Sikri did not give favourable verdict in favour of the Centre in the bitter battle with AAP's Delhi government. These two set backs changed the thinking of the government and it is felt that super-session is not a good idea particularly in an election year. Secondly, the BJP will lose its main plank against the Congress if does the same what late Indira Gandhi did when Justice A N Ray superseded three senior judges and all quit in protest.

Will Sonia pave way for Priyanka from Rae Bareli?

The Capital is agog with speculation that Sonia Gandhi may bid adieu to the electoral politics and may not contest from Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat. Instead, she may pave for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Sonia Gandhi is withdrawing from the day-today political activities and passed on the baton to Rahul Gandhi in December last year when he took over as Congress president. There has been clamour for a long time in the Congress that Priyanka Gandhi may be brought to the fore and it will boost the prospects of the party in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It will electrify the workers in UP and elsewhere. In any case, priyanka Gandhi has been working a backroom boy for Rahul Gandhi for a long time and managing affairs from behind the curtains. Sonia Gandhi, it may said contested from the Amethi constituency in 1999 and shifted to Rae Bareli in 2004 which she continues to represent till date. However, she has not been keeping a good health and unable to campaign intensively which she used to do earlier. Sonia Gandhi wants that the family bastion Rae Bareli seat be retained in the family and Priyanka Gandhi may be brought to the fore. The assessment is Priyanka's induction will improve the bargaining chip of the Congress in the Hindi heartland.

When Modi tried to charm Kharge

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is mending fences with the Opposition leaders lately. On Tuesday after the all-party meeting ended, Modi saw senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge walking slowly. Modi asked him to come along as he was to drive home after the meeting and Kharge was also leaving. However, Kharge recited a small poem in Hindi to the surprise of Modi. He said, “Jab Raja Hilta Hai to Mulk Hilta hai, Jab Kazi Hilta Hai to Dadhi Hilti Hai, Aur Jab Aapki Gadi Hilegi to Hum Bhi Hilenge”. (When the King moves, the country moves, when the judge of the Sharia court moves, his beard moves, and when your cavalcade moves out only then I can leave). Kharge was telling him that due to the security, the PM has to leave first and only then others can leave. This caused a huge laughter in the entire corridor and Modi enjoyed the dig.

Fly on the wall : Rahul Shows up, steals the show

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Shows up, steals the show

The sea-change in Rahul Gandhi was clearly visible when the Congress president showed up along with his mother Sonia Gandhi in Parliament's Central Hall this session. If he was coy during the Winter session, he was a different guy this time. He was candid, brutally frank and didn't mince words. If his mother was economical with words, Rahul Gandhi spoke, spoke and spoke and every word was “on-record”. And he didn't stop despite Sonia Gandhi holding his hand and dropped the bomb, “I can tell you, they are not coming back. It will be a Modi-less government in 2019.” While Sonia tried to stop him but Rahul went on with assessment of political situation saying the Congress is set to increase its tally by extra 70 Lok Sabha seats and this is the minimum figure. He said by the same reckoning the BJP is set to lose at least 70 seats and no ally will accept Modi as PM with BJP getting 200 less seats. Rahul Gandhi's assessment was that it would either be an NDA government headed by someone like the current home minister (Rajnath Singh) or it would be a congress led government at the Centre as it happened in 2004. He said the party is set to increase its tally in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and also in Southern states. He also had a pun saying who would have imagined this scenario a year ago. Rahul Gandhi also made it clear that BJP was trying to divide the country and fight next Karnataka polls on the Hindutva plank. But they won't succeed. Sonia Gandhi's former Political Adviser was throughout with Rahul and Sonia and others virtually mobbed them.

Four Rajya Sabha seats in 4 states up for the grab

All eyes are set on four crucial Rajya Sabha seats in four states as they considered “Lose”. These four seats are up for grab to either highest bidder or a man who can swing political alliances. Of the 61 Rajya Sabha seats for which biennial polls will be held soon, these four seats are most crucial. The composition of state assemblies in the states of Bihar, Karnataka, UP & West Bengal is such that no single party can win on its own these extra seats and candidates will require extra skills to get into the Upper House.

Is Sharad Yadav Opposition candidate in Bihar?

In Bihar, if behind the scenes activities are indication, Interesting scenario is emerging for six Rajya Sabha seats. While the RJD will win two, the BJP-JD(U) combine will easily get five seats. The big tussle is for the sixth seats as Congress has just 27 MLAs in the house 243. The sixth candidate will require 40 first preference votes of the MLAs. Who can garner these 13 extra votes. It transpires that King Mahendra who is a six term MP of the Rajya Sabha and retiring, wants Congress to give him the ticket and he will manage extra 13 votes. He has earlier been all the parties in the state. But his game-plan suffered a set back with senior Opposition leader Sharad Yadav throwing his hat in the ring too. He recently met Lalu Prasad Yadav in jail along with Babulal Marandi of JVM. The Congress may also lend its support to Sharad Yadav and he will manage three CPI-ML votes and other smaller parties. The BJP-JD (U) are also working hard to divide the Congress CLP in Bihar to grab this extra seat.

Congress' dilemma in West Bengal

Of the five Rajya Sabha seats, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will win four easily as it has 212 MLAs in the House of 294. But a winner needs 59 first preference votes while the Congress has 42 MLAs. It will require the support of 17 extra MLAs which may come from the CPM (26) or 11 others. The Congress had offered the seat to Sitaram Yechury but his party doesn't want any truck with it. The issue is will the Congress seek CPM's support to win the RS seat or enter into some understanding with Mamata Banerjee. A search is on who can bring Congress-Mamata together again.

Whom Deve Gowda will oblige in Karnataka?

Of the four RS seats in Karnataka, Congress will win two seats easily with the support of its 124 MLAs. The BJP with the support of 44 of its MLAs may also manage to win a seat. But the fourth seat is considered lose as Janata Dal (S) of Deve Gowda has 40 MLAs and winner will require 56 votes. There are 16 Independents. Rajeev Chandrashekhar who is an Independent MP of the Rajya Sabha having won the seat with the support of JD(S) and BJP in 2012, may try his luck again.

9th seat is up for grab in UP

Biennial poll for nine Rajya Sabha seats will take place in UP and BJP with the support of 325 MLAs will get 7 seats easily. The Samajwadi Party will get one having the support of 47 MLAs. All eyes are now on the 9th seats which the BJP is determined to win as it is capable of garnering lose votes from Congress (7), BSP (19) and others (5). The Opposition parties can also get the 9th seat if they come together. Seach is on for a person who can unite them all.

Vasundhara Won’t be sacked

Various theories are doing the rounds how Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia lost two Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat with a record margin in Rajasthan and took the sheen off the BJP's campaign of Congress-Mukt Bharat. One theory is that the BJP's Central leadership which is against the Chief Minister did not help her. It was strange that several secular parties like the BSP, AIMIM etc who contested every Assembly seat in Gujrat and other byelections, did not field their candidates. It became a direct battle between the BJP and Congress. The BJP central leadership says she chose candidates of her choice and didn't listen when advised. However, the high command has decided not to remove Vasundhara. However, her wings will be clipped considerably and new BJP state unit chief will be sent. It is no secret that Modi-Shah don’t like her and this defeat has pushed her to a corner.

Modi-Shah team didn’t like P K Dhumal. Result, party won Himachal but Dhumal lost. A top leader said, “We don't remove our women !”

Fly on the Wall : Worry behind the big hype

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

By Harish Gupta

Worry behind the big hype

If Rahul Gandhi was seen in his new avatar long before the Assembly polls, Prime Minister Modi is also showing the signs of change after the Gujrat results. The BJP may be celebrating 1.25% gain in its vote share to hide behind the loss of 16 Assembly seats. But Modi has woken up to the tough road ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Gone are the days when he used to issue sermons to Mps and at times snubbed them left, right and center. Now his tone is conciliatory and he is meeting Mps in his Parliament House in numbers. Any M P can walk in if the PM is sitting in his chamber during the session and there are chances that the PM will meet him. Though he explained to Mps at the BJP parliamentary party meeting that he is virtually working 24X7 and traveled to 15 states after ending his hurricane campaigning in Gujrat on December 12. But he requested them to work hard rather issuing one sermon after the other which he used to do in the past. Modi has also asked his ministers to meet desiring Mps and solve grievances of the workers without delay. Though the “arrogance” has not vanished of some of the leaders, but they have realised that its time to mend fences to prevent dissidence.

Sharad Yadav as UPA Convener ?

The Congress may be bragging victory in its defeat in Gujrat. But the grand-old party is also gearing up to the challenges ahead. Contrary to reports, there is no question of Sonia Gandhi retiring from politics. Rather, she will be playing a more active role in reviving the now defunct United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in some new avatar. Sonia Gandhi continues to be the chairman of the UPA. However, it now transpires that a convener will be chosen from the other parties to play the role of a catalyst. A veteran Opposition leader Sharad Yadav's name has emerged as the convener of the UPA. Neither UPA-I nor UPA-II had any convener. But it is now realized that a convener is necessary from within the Opposition ranks who understands them better. Sharad Yadav is rated very high in the Gandhi dispensation as he sacrificed the minister's post in the Modi government and stood his grounds. The Congress is also keen that he is brought to the Rajya Sabha. Congress president Rahul Gandhi is now glued to the caste politics in India and who will know better than Yadav who was behind the Mandal Commission politics.

Congress lost 12 seats, thanks to NCP, BSP

The blame game between the Congress and NCP leadership has turned bitter for the collapse of alliance in Gujrat. Sonia Gandhi's Political Adviser Ahmad Patel claims the NCP wanted 24 seats initially when the talks broke down. Later, NCP's Praful Patel signaled to Ashok Gehlot that the party would be contended if given 12 seats. The Congress offered six seats to the NCP which it was unable to accept. When the contact was re-established, the deadline for withdrawal of nomination papers had gone. Frankly, neither the Congress and nor the NCP were keen for an alliance. Similarly, the BSP was also willing for an alliance with the Congress provided 25 seats are given to it. The Congress refused to even consider the proposal and the BSP also contested polls alone. Both the parties barely secured 3.91 lakh votes (1.3%). But both cost the Congress dearly as they caused a loss of 12 Assembly seats. The margin of BJP's victory in these 12 seats was less than 2000 votes each while candidates of these two parties polled more votes. Congress alleges that the two parties never wanted an alliance and were playing a game. Both parties vehemently deny and say if the Congress wanted to win the state, it should have behaved like a big brother.

When Amit Shah touched Dr Joshi's feet

The Central Hall of Parliament was stunned when BJP president Amit Shah touched the feet of veteran party leader Dr Murli Manohar Joshi. It so happened that Amit Shah who is a new entrant to the Rajya Sabha, came to the Central Hall. While going over to the Lok Sabha from the Rajya Sabha, he saw Dr Joshi sitting. Shah went up to him and touched his feet. Dr Joshi gave him the “aashirwad.” No politics was discussed. There is a speculation about the room to be allocated to the BJP chief in the Parliament House. The BJP either will have to re-design the two rooms it has been allocated on the ground floor to accommodate Shah or the party chief will have to be contended by sharing room with L K Advani who has an independent room and practically has no work.

Dhumal, Anandiben as Governor as Malhotra gets MoS rank

With the BJP's founder and 90-year old Vijay Kumar Malhotra who has been in political wilderness like many others for the past 44 months, being given the Minister of State rank, it is clear that he will not go as Governor. Initially Malhotra was offered a Governor's post but he put a condition that he be sent to Punjab. Modi refused and Malhotra went into political wilderness. Now Modi bestowed upon him a favour by granting a private secretaryto him as he is holding the rank of a Minister of State as he is the president of All India Council of Sports. All India Council of Sports is the representative body all sports bodies in the country. It is now clear that Prem Kumar Dhumal of Himachal Pradesh and Anandiben Patel of Gujrat will be sent as Governors. There are at least four vacancies of governors at present and the same will be filled anytime.

Fly on the wall : IBC Code divided the Cabinet, for a change

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

fly on the wall 

IBC Code divided the Cabinet, for a change

For a change, Union Cabinet witnessed some prolonged if not heated discussions when the Insolvency Bankruptcy Code (IBC) Ordinance was brought before it. A couple of Cabinet Ministers felt that if the purpose of the Ordinance is to revive 500 sick companies, it will be rather detrimental. But the Finance and Corporate Affairs Minister Arun Jaitley argued that if this Ordinance is brought, then all sick companies will be grabbed by the relatives and friends of those promoters who had looted them for decades. The actual value of these companies is less than 50%. The government wants that new genuine promoters should come forward. Some ministers said the Ordinance is so stringent that there will be no buyers left. When a another senior minister quipped that it would impossible to find such buyers in India, Jaitley said world is looking at India how this government is dealing with corrupt promoters. Another minister pointed out to Jaitley that the money was lent to these companies by the banks and let the banks be given free hand to deal with the situation. Why the government was interfering in the process. At this, Jaitley got irritated but replied in a coll manner that the IBC was evolved only after intense consultations with the bank who are finding themselves unable to deal with the crisis. The willful defaulters are creating all sorts of hurdles in selling these companies after milking them for decades. The government won't allow any relative to buy the sick company of another relative. Prime Minister Modi maintained a complete silence when the debate was going on the Ordinance. The Ordinance was later issued and now set to be challenged.

Sonia to continue as CPP chairman as Rahul cracks whip

Rahul Gandhi has done what none including Sonia Gandhi dared in the past; suspending senior leader of late Rajiv Gandhi era. Manishankar Aiyer who was an IFS, quit his job and joined Rajiv Gandhi and never looked back. He held key positions and often put Dr Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi in trouble for his remarks all these years. But nobody touched him as he was an “uncle” to the Gandhis. Aiyer thought the storm over his “neech” remark will blow over with his “half-hearted regret” and that too with riders. Rahul Gandhi was furious when Aiyer didn't tender unqualified apology as directed and cracked the whip. Though Rahul Gandhi wants to carry the oldies in the party with him and won't reshuffle the pack after assuming office of the Congress president on December 16. But he won't sack anybody. Meanwhile, it is unclear whether Ahmad Patel who is Political Adviser to Congress President (CP) will continue to hold the post. It is clear that Rahul doesn't want political adviser and will rely on the “entire leadership” rather than one individual. It is yet to be seen if Ahmad Patel is made political adviser to the Chairman of the CPP (Congress Parliamentary Party) or not. It is emerging that Sonia Gandhi will continue to be the chairman of the Congress Parliamentary Party until the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Congressmen say that while Sonia Gandhi always avoided taking risks, Rahul Gandhi is no-nonsense kind of a person and by suspending Aiyer, he has sent a signal to senior leaders to keep their tongue under check.

Akola makes Yashwant Sinha a mass leader, BJP worried 

Yashwant Sinha may be in political wilderness and a loner. But over-night, he made the ruling party worried when he landed in Akola in Maharashtra and forced the Fadnavis government to concede all the six demands of the farmers. The tremendous success in a short span of time of the farmers' agitation surprised political class as Sinha was able to mobilise the support of not only local farmers but also West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and other parties looking for a leader worth a salt. She dispatched Dinesh Trivedi and now it transpires that Swabhiman Paskha Party, Aam Aadmi Party, Biju Janata Dal and several others may swim in the troubled waters in BJP ruled states. They have got a leader in Yashwant Sinha who is 80 years plus and working hard to engineer a revolt within the BJP too. Don't dismiss the 80 year old job seeker as he is enjoying a new role of farmers messiah. One will have to wait for some more time how things take shape.

She-Box Zeal takes Maneka no where

Maneka Gandhi launched the a comprehensive She-Box, an online complaint management system for working women to lodge complaints of sexual harassment at work places. This was under the Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace (Prevention, prohibition and Redressal ) Act which is called the She Act 2013. it was passed during the UPA regime but Maneka has been focusing on its tough implementation ever since she became a minister in 2014. Its an online portal facility and covers even those who have already filed their complaints to the private or government companies or department. The ministry published even a handbook to pretext the dignity and safety of women. The PIB churned out a huge handout of the launching of the She Box on November 7. But shockingly, the same handout with verbatim words was issued by the same ministry on the same subject six months ago, on July 24 to be precise. The Press Information Bureau has both the press releases on its website with a five months gap. The Fly was told that ministers are under so much of pressure from the PMO to show activities relating to their ministries in the media that even when they have no event, they are forced to create an event. Maneka hit upon the idea of recycling press bulletins.

You down jack, I down jack

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Analysing the upcoming election (July 17) of the President of India may be like replaying the tape of an old cricket match. Because there is not much surprise left in the contest between Ram Nath Kovind, a career politician and the ruling NDA’s official candidate, and Meira Kumar, UPA’s, or rather the Congress’, official candidate, daughter of former deputy prime minister Jagjivan Ram, diplomat, former Lok Sabha Speaker, and an amateur rifle shooter. Kovind is way out front in the race, which generally follows party lines. And, in the arithmetic of voting strength, the NDA starts from a winning score of 63 per cent; it may go up, not down, in the weeks ahead.

But it is still an interesting election. For the BJP, the choice of candidate holds a major surprise for the assorted scaremongers who had begun counting the Doomsday by the annulment of the Constitution’s secular commitments, and expected Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP president Amit Shah and the RSS to rummage through the nether world and pick up a Hindutva-warrior as the Presidential candidate. The political know-alls in the stretch between Raisina Hill and the gossip-filled bar and cafe of the India International Center were convinced that the apparent rejection by Team Modi of BJP bigwigs like L. K. Advani, M. M. Joshi and Sushma Swaraj for the prestigious (and powerless) job of the President had an ominous hidden meaning—that of eventually ‘Hinduising’ the Constitution with the help of a like-minded President. As if, given an encouraging pat in the back, any of the above persons would be shy to prove their Hindutva ! Apparently, it did not occur to the ‘cognoscenti’ that if the Constitution were to be twisted and mangled right down to its “basic structure”, its operation room could be the Parliament, and not the Rashtrapati Bhavan. The President is a cipher after all.

The fact that Ramnath Kobind is anything but a Swayamsewak—his only link with the RSS being that he had gifted to it his (none too pricey) ancestral home at Derapur in Uttar Pradesh—tells nothing much. If Modi is really harbouring some radical plans about governance, he can carry it through regardless of who is the President. Just as he did not say a word to President Pranab Mukherjee before ordering the scrapping of 86 per cent of the money in circulation. However, while the choice of Kovind is an obvious pointer to the BJP’s 2019 strategy of leaving no dalit sect unturned, it has a sub-text, which is that the dalit face the BJP under Modi and Shah is looking for is the quiet and sober type, not Mayawati’s kind of a restless soul who’d put caste at the centre of every discourse. Both Mayawati and Kovind are law graduates but the latter had practised law for years and, unlike Mayawati, joined a political party which is anything but someone’s personal property. On the other hand, to Mayawati, politics is a weapon of self-aggrandizement.

Just as Kovind’s choice underlines certain aspects of Modi’s mind, the selection of Meira Kumar by the Congress—which is the short-hand for Sonia Gandhi—is also indicative of its priorities. Kumar is dalit only by name but is a prominent member of the capital’s elite club that has all along set the rules of the game of politics. In her young days, she grew up a Lutyens’ Delhi girl and never left it at her present age of 72, having been elected five times to the Lok Sabha and then nominated as Speaker of the Lok Sabha. And, like all clever denizens of Lutyens’ city, she used her influence to get her father’s 6, Krishna Menon Marg residence allotted to herself for 25 years. Her selection as the Congress’ presidential candidate speaks volumes for the elitist bias that has crippled the grand old party, with choice of leadership at every stage being determined by pedigree and rank in society. Meira Kumar may not go down as badly as Lakshmi Sahgal in 2002, who bagged merely 107,366 votes against winner A. P. J. Kalam’s 922,884. The UPA’s performance could be a lot better if Sonia Gandhi showed a bit of imagination and started the ‘trick’ herself, forcing Modi to be the ‘taker’. Instead, the Congress allowed Modi to deal first, as in a game of bridge, and the latter played Dalit, his strongest hand. As successive elections in Uttar Pradesh are showing, economic and demographic changes are making the backwards dump their traditional guardians, Congress and BSP, with a big chunk of them tasting BJP’s hospitality. If Sonia Gandhi had a better sense of the game, she could in fact accept CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechuri’s advice and put up Gopal Krishna Gandhi as UPA candidate. That would have left Modi with no option to tapping the dark and thick seam of bigotry, and hatred of Mahatma Gandhi, in BJP’s sub-soil. Besides, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, who is supporting Kovid as he’s too eager to get his uneasy alliance partner Laloo Yadav off his back, by keeping Modi pleased, if necessary, would have thought many times over if he had to oppose a scion of the Mahatma and stay on the side of his abusers. That has a cost, of expulsion from the respectable class. But there is a silver lining in the Congress game-plan; it may finally bring SP-BSP-RLD-Congress on the poll table during 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Modi should have a reason to worry.

However, Presidential election cannot gauge public opinion as its electors comprise those already elected. Still, it is an occasion to get a sense of the kind of people running the majority group among the country’s lawmakers, big and small; their values and the respect they have for the illustrious countrymen whom majority of the people respect. In this sense, the Congress’ role is disappointing. For Modi’s Dalit, all it could offer was its own Dalit. And one like them, to be sure.  

"A" in politics but low in Economics

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

In democracy, completion of three years in power is a time for perturbation as that’s when the curse of “anti-incumbency” sets in.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is an exception. Into his fourth year in power, there is hardly any popular disgruntlement against his incumbency. It was evident in the assembly election in Uttar Pradesh last March when the BJP under Modi and party president Amit Shah succeeded in pulverising the ruling Samajwadi Party much to the same extent to which the saffron party had steamrolled its rivals in the mega-state in the 2014 general elections.

By now, BJP is armed with an election machinery which is unparalleled. Its leadership’s ardour to win every poll is legendary. And for the party, the importance of the year 2019, when Modi’s second innings in power is expected to begin, is underlined. At least this is the impression one gets after talking to a number of Opposition leaders. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s statement that he is not in the race for the Prime Minister’s post and veteran politician Sharad Pawar is not ready to play ball with the Congress clearly give the impression that they are unwilling to fight with Modi.  

It is obvious that BJP is shining in the absence of competition. Congress president Sonia Gandhi, Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee, CPI(M)’s Sitaram Yechuri—all of them seem trapped in a single strategic silo to combat Modi, which is to “unite” the opposition. The Presidential poll, due in July, can be the first test of unity. But that’s most likely to be fighting a losing battle, as there are unbridgeable fissures in the opposition—Mamata Vs CPM, AAP’s Kejriwal Vs Congress, Samajwadi Party Vs BSP’s Mayawati. Beside, Modi’s inclusive style of campaigning has gravely challenged the traditional parties’ vote-banks. Mayawati’s Jatav, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s once famous Muslim (M)-Yadav (Y) amalgam, Delhi’s Bihari immigrant voters loyal to AAP—recent elections show that the lure of Modi’s “mitron” call brought about seemingly irreparable cracks in these traditional alliances.

Besides, the opposition is bereft of tall leaders. Unlike its UPA predecessor, the Modi administration is not protective about politicians involved in graft cases. Instead, its in-the-face attitude has dragooned most opposition stalwarts in cases from which escape is not guaranteed. Like Laloo and his family members in money-laundering charges; Congress former Home and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and his son, Karti, in the allegation of siphoning off huge amounts to acquire, among other things, large property in Britain; most of Mamata’s ministers and party leaders waiting to be picked up by CBI on the charge of accepting bribe as shown in the ‘Narada’ sting operation. In the National Herald illegal share-transfer case, the noose may also tighten on Sonia Gandhi and her son, Rahul, the Congress vice-president.

The opposition calls it “witch hunt” but its voice is feeble, with the media prone to self-censorship, and the government, armed with summary provision under Sec 124A of the IPC, being empowered to swoop down on its critics in the social media on the charge of being ‘seditious’. Besides, hit by a blizzard of serious corruption charges, the opposition seems to have lost its moral heft to stand up and question the government. It is more serious than comparable global developments, like near-evaporation of the Labour Party in UK, or the US Democratic Party being in eclipse. Unlike these mature democracies, the Indian opposition parties are personality-based and not much remains of them when the central towering figure collapses.

Though Modi’s political victory so far is undeniable, there are signs of weariness in governance and vision. In 2014, he promised: “I will make such a wonderful India that all Americans will stand in line to get a visa for India”. Unfortunately, things have moved in a different direction. Somewhat embarrassingly, the government Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) figures of national income refuse to tally with estimates of industrial production. In the quarter covering demonetisation of large notes last November, the index of industrial production was flat but national income grew at 7%, like in magic. With large malls lying near-empty, or being converted to office space, a shortfall in demand is self-evident.

Behind decline in demand is the stark reality of job opportunities shrinking. It is not merely due to Donald Trump’s visa policy, or problems in the IT sector due to shifts in technology (entry of robots in workplaces, for example). There are other reasons too, such as:

·      India has 10 million new workers to the workforce annually, but available non-agricultural jobs are less than 5 per cent;

·      Poor education system has rendered most Indians unemployable, including 90 % of the 10 lakh engineers passing out every year;

·      China became the world’s factory in the 1980’s. Now protectionism rules the roost, with global trade remaining subdued at 2.7% in volume terms. India may not be able to do the China act.

·      CRISIL estimates 12 million people will join agricultural workforce between 2011-12 and 2018-19. But agri workers’ number is declining very fast. So the country cannot move up the value chain to become a modern nation.

·      Agriculture, construction, manufacturing—sectors that employ people are lagging GDP growth. Though agriculture production has shown improvement. But its after two years’ of consecutive drought. What have outpaced GDP growth are financial services, real estate, public administration, and trade, hotels and restaurants. Except the last, all other growing sectors have little job potential. The country is indeed experiencing jobless growth. In the proposed GST regime, the last two have been hit hard.

From the rough and tumble of electoral politics, can Modi take a creative leap to make India a hub of innovation and growth? In the next two years, he must prove he can think big on governance. Or else the queues in India for American visa will continue to be longer than the other way round.