Fly on the Wall : Cabinet reshuffle round the corner !

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Cabinet reshuffle round the corner !

BJP's senior general secretary Ram Madhav may have missed the Rajya Sabha bus. But the speed with which the party gave him charge of Andhra Pradesh is an indication that BJP is working on a counter-offensive in the state. It transpires that Andhra BJP Chief K Haribabu may be brought in the Union Cabinet to represent the state as it has no representation after the exit of the TDP. There is also a proposal to bring in D Pruandhareswari, daughter of late N T Rama Rao who had joined the BJP long back. Since she was against Chandra Babu Naidu she failed to grow in the BJP. But her stars are shining now with the BJP parting company with the TDP. The party also brought in GVL Narasimha Rao into the Rajya Sabha who hails from Andhra. Party insiders say that the Cabinet reshuffle will take place after the Karnataka Assembly polls and some grass root leaders may be brought in the Cabinet in the wake of mounting pressure from certain states. A large number of ministers have been holding dual charge and since Lok Sabha polls are only a year away, Cabinet expansion has to take place for political balancing.

How Yogi was put in his place

It has now emerged that UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was denied the privilege of choosing a candidate of his choice from Gorakhpur lok Sabha seat. There is no denying the fact that last minute unity between the two arch rivals – SP & BSP- had surprised the BJP and situation was uncomfortable. Yogi wanted the party high command to give ticket a person of his choice. Instead, the high command sought three names from him. The Yogi sent the names but insisted that his first preference be accommodated. But to his surprise, state incharge of BJP Sunil Bansal recommended the name of Upendra Dutt Shukla. It transpires that same thing happened in Phulpur where Sunil Bansal vetoed the recommendation of Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. Insiders in the BJP say that the party's defeat served two political purposes; first being that Yogi who was flying high, has been grounded. “A person who cannot retain his own home constituency, how can he be brought in to the Parliamentary Board?” said a senior functionary. The BJP's parliamentary board has one vacancy after the elevation of M Venkiah Naidu as Vice President.

Jaitley's tough conditions delay Kejri apology

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is making frantic efforts to persuade Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to accept his unconditional apology and close the defamation case. It transpires that AAP's newly elected Rajya Sabha MP N D Gupta who is a noted chartered accountant, has held several meetings with Jaitley to sort out the problem. But Jaitley is in no mood as arguments in the trial court had been completed and judgment is awaited. Secondly, Jaitley is reported to have put some stiff conditions such as that Kejriwal should apologise from the same public platform which was used to make allegations against him and his daughter. Jaitley doesn't want merely written apology but a public apology on TV channels and at a public meeting. Jaitey is no Nitin Gadkari or Punjab Akali Dal leader Majithia who accepted Kejriwal's apology meekly. The last word on Jaitley-Kejri saga is yet to be written.

What's cooking between Rahul & Sharad Pawar ?

Congress president Rahul Gandhi is batting on the front foot and calling on party leaders seeking their cooperation. If sources are to be believed, he has spoken to most of the Opposition leaders over the phone including Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Sharad Yadav, Sitaram Yechury and others. But he held long parleys with Sharad Pawar seeking his cooperation and understand shape of things to come. It is clear that Congress-NCP will contest the Lok Sabha polls together and Pawar gave an in-principle approval for the same in Maharashtra. Both the parties will revert to the same seat-sharing arrangement that existed between the two parties before they parties company in 2014. The Chief Minister will be from the Congress party while NCP will have the post of Deputy Chief Minister in the event of alliance winning the state. The contours of alliance will be decided at a later date. But Rahul wanted Pawar to prevent division of Opposition votes in the states and expressed Congress willingness to make sacrifices.

No UPA type front in the offing

Sonia Gandhi may be holding parleys with the Opposition leaders over dinners. There may also be a talk that Sonia Gandhi may form a front of like-minded parties on the pattern of United Progressive Alliance (UPA). But Rahul Gandhi is in no hurry to create such a front. Rahul Gandhi feels that no such front is needed at this juncture and Opposition parties should work quietly. Secondly, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is working over-time to create a third front and speaking to regional satraps. While Sharad Pawar sees the light once again at the end of the tunnel in 2019 polls in the emergence of a third front. But having burnt his fingers in the past, he is sitting pretty and trying to expand NCP's base outside Maharashtra. For him, Maharashtra is the key and other states are a bonus. But Mamata Banerjee is banking on Pawar to create a third front as Mulayam Singh Yadav has been pushed into the background by his son who is busy in stitching alliance with Mayawati in UP. Akhilesh Yadav has signaled that Congress cannot be given more than 8-10 Lok Sabha seat in any seat-sharing arrangement for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The RLD may get 2-3 Lok Sabha seats while one seat may be spared for Sharad Yadav.

Two hour delay caused a flutter in HRD ministry

No one was in doubt that all the sitting eight Union Ministers will be re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha. But things didn't happen as contemplated. When general secretary incharge of BJP's Parliamentary Board and Union health Minister J P Nadda issued a press release at 9 pm, it contained the names of only seven ministers re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha. The name of savvy HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar was missing from the official press release. All hell broke and frantic calls were made to inquire about the fate of Javadekar. There was no response as to who will dare ask the PM or the BJP president Amit Shah. However, within two hours, second press release was issued announcing the name of Javadekar from Maharashtra. He was told that the party delayed the announcement as it was in the process of deciding whether he should be sent to UP or his home state of Maharashtra. However, the two hour gap was enough to cause a political flutter.

Fly on the wall : Rahul Shows up, steals the show

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Shows up, steals the show

The sea-change in Rahul Gandhi was clearly visible when the Congress president showed up along with his mother Sonia Gandhi in Parliament's Central Hall this session. If he was coy during the Winter session, he was a different guy this time. He was candid, brutally frank and didn't mince words. If his mother was economical with words, Rahul Gandhi spoke, spoke and spoke and every word was “on-record”. And he didn't stop despite Sonia Gandhi holding his hand and dropped the bomb, “I can tell you, they are not coming back. It will be a Modi-less government in 2019.” While Sonia tried to stop him but Rahul went on with assessment of political situation saying the Congress is set to increase its tally by extra 70 Lok Sabha seats and this is the minimum figure. He said by the same reckoning the BJP is set to lose at least 70 seats and no ally will accept Modi as PM with BJP getting 200 less seats. Rahul Gandhi's assessment was that it would either be an NDA government headed by someone like the current home minister (Rajnath Singh) or it would be a congress led government at the Centre as it happened in 2004. He said the party is set to increase its tally in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and also in Southern states. He also had a pun saying who would have imagined this scenario a year ago. Rahul Gandhi also made it clear that BJP was trying to divide the country and fight next Karnataka polls on the Hindutva plank. But they won't succeed. Sonia Gandhi's former Political Adviser was throughout with Rahul and Sonia and others virtually mobbed them.

Four Rajya Sabha seats in 4 states up for the grab

All eyes are set on four crucial Rajya Sabha seats in four states as they considered “Lose”. These four seats are up for grab to either highest bidder or a man who can swing political alliances. Of the 61 Rajya Sabha seats for which biennial polls will be held soon, these four seats are most crucial. The composition of state assemblies in the states of Bihar, Karnataka, UP & West Bengal is such that no single party can win on its own these extra seats and candidates will require extra skills to get into the Upper House.

Is Sharad Yadav Opposition candidate in Bihar?

In Bihar, if behind the scenes activities are indication, Interesting scenario is emerging for six Rajya Sabha seats. While the RJD will win two, the BJP-JD(U) combine will easily get five seats. The big tussle is for the sixth seats as Congress has just 27 MLAs in the house 243. The sixth candidate will require 40 first preference votes of the MLAs. Who can garner these 13 extra votes. It transpires that King Mahendra who is a six term MP of the Rajya Sabha and retiring, wants Congress to give him the ticket and he will manage extra 13 votes. He has earlier been all the parties in the state. But his game-plan suffered a set back with senior Opposition leader Sharad Yadav throwing his hat in the ring too. He recently met Lalu Prasad Yadav in jail along with Babulal Marandi of JVM. The Congress may also lend its support to Sharad Yadav and he will manage three CPI-ML votes and other smaller parties. The BJP-JD (U) are also working hard to divide the Congress CLP in Bihar to grab this extra seat.

Congress' dilemma in West Bengal

Of the five Rajya Sabha seats, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will win four easily as it has 212 MLAs in the House of 294. But a winner needs 59 first preference votes while the Congress has 42 MLAs. It will require the support of 17 extra MLAs which may come from the CPM (26) or 11 others. The Congress had offered the seat to Sitaram Yechury but his party doesn't want any truck with it. The issue is will the Congress seek CPM's support to win the RS seat or enter into some understanding with Mamata Banerjee. A search is on who can bring Congress-Mamata together again.

Whom Deve Gowda will oblige in Karnataka?

Of the four RS seats in Karnataka, Congress will win two seats easily with the support of its 124 MLAs. The BJP with the support of 44 of its MLAs may also manage to win a seat. But the fourth seat is considered lose as Janata Dal (S) of Deve Gowda has 40 MLAs and winner will require 56 votes. There are 16 Independents. Rajeev Chandrashekhar who is an Independent MP of the Rajya Sabha having won the seat with the support of JD(S) and BJP in 2012, may try his luck again.

9th seat is up for grab in UP

Biennial poll for nine Rajya Sabha seats will take place in UP and BJP with the support of 325 MLAs will get 7 seats easily. The Samajwadi Party will get one having the support of 47 MLAs. All eyes are now on the 9th seats which the BJP is determined to win as it is capable of garnering lose votes from Congress (7), BSP (19) and others (5). The Opposition parties can also get the 9th seat if they come together. Seach is on for a person who can unite them all.

Vasundhara Won’t be sacked

Various theories are doing the rounds how Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia lost two Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat with a record margin in Rajasthan and took the sheen off the BJP's campaign of Congress-Mukt Bharat. One theory is that the BJP's Central leadership which is against the Chief Minister did not help her. It was strange that several secular parties like the BSP, AIMIM etc who contested every Assembly seat in Gujrat and other byelections, did not field their candidates. It became a direct battle between the BJP and Congress. The BJP central leadership says she chose candidates of her choice and didn't listen when advised. However, the high command has decided not to remove Vasundhara. However, her wings will be clipped considerably and new BJP state unit chief will be sent. It is no secret that Modi-Shah don’t like her and this defeat has pushed her to a corner.

Modi-Shah team didn’t like P K Dhumal. Result, party won Himachal but Dhumal lost. A top leader said, “We don't remove our women !”

Fly on the Wall : Worry behind the big hype

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

By Harish Gupta

Worry behind the big hype

If Rahul Gandhi was seen in his new avatar long before the Assembly polls, Prime Minister Modi is also showing the signs of change after the Gujrat results. The BJP may be celebrating 1.25% gain in its vote share to hide behind the loss of 16 Assembly seats. But Modi has woken up to the tough road ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Gone are the days when he used to issue sermons to Mps and at times snubbed them left, right and center. Now his tone is conciliatory and he is meeting Mps in his Parliament House in numbers. Any M P can walk in if the PM is sitting in his chamber during the session and there are chances that the PM will meet him. Though he explained to Mps at the BJP parliamentary party meeting that he is virtually working 24X7 and traveled to 15 states after ending his hurricane campaigning in Gujrat on December 12. But he requested them to work hard rather issuing one sermon after the other which he used to do in the past. Modi has also asked his ministers to meet desiring Mps and solve grievances of the workers without delay. Though the “arrogance” has not vanished of some of the leaders, but they have realised that its time to mend fences to prevent dissidence.

Sharad Yadav as UPA Convener ?

The Congress may be bragging victory in its defeat in Gujrat. But the grand-old party is also gearing up to the challenges ahead. Contrary to reports, there is no question of Sonia Gandhi retiring from politics. Rather, she will be playing a more active role in reviving the now defunct United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in some new avatar. Sonia Gandhi continues to be the chairman of the UPA. However, it now transpires that a convener will be chosen from the other parties to play the role of a catalyst. A veteran Opposition leader Sharad Yadav's name has emerged as the convener of the UPA. Neither UPA-I nor UPA-II had any convener. But it is now realized that a convener is necessary from within the Opposition ranks who understands them better. Sharad Yadav is rated very high in the Gandhi dispensation as he sacrificed the minister's post in the Modi government and stood his grounds. The Congress is also keen that he is brought to the Rajya Sabha. Congress president Rahul Gandhi is now glued to the caste politics in India and who will know better than Yadav who was behind the Mandal Commission politics.

Congress lost 12 seats, thanks to NCP, BSP

The blame game between the Congress and NCP leadership has turned bitter for the collapse of alliance in Gujrat. Sonia Gandhi's Political Adviser Ahmad Patel claims the NCP wanted 24 seats initially when the talks broke down. Later, NCP's Praful Patel signaled to Ashok Gehlot that the party would be contended if given 12 seats. The Congress offered six seats to the NCP which it was unable to accept. When the contact was re-established, the deadline for withdrawal of nomination papers had gone. Frankly, neither the Congress and nor the NCP were keen for an alliance. Similarly, the BSP was also willing for an alliance with the Congress provided 25 seats are given to it. The Congress refused to even consider the proposal and the BSP also contested polls alone. Both the parties barely secured 3.91 lakh votes (1.3%). But both cost the Congress dearly as they caused a loss of 12 Assembly seats. The margin of BJP's victory in these 12 seats was less than 2000 votes each while candidates of these two parties polled more votes. Congress alleges that the two parties never wanted an alliance and were playing a game. Both parties vehemently deny and say if the Congress wanted to win the state, it should have behaved like a big brother.

When Amit Shah touched Dr Joshi's feet

The Central Hall of Parliament was stunned when BJP president Amit Shah touched the feet of veteran party leader Dr Murli Manohar Joshi. It so happened that Amit Shah who is a new entrant to the Rajya Sabha, came to the Central Hall. While going over to the Lok Sabha from the Rajya Sabha, he saw Dr Joshi sitting. Shah went up to him and touched his feet. Dr Joshi gave him the “aashirwad.” No politics was discussed. There is a speculation about the room to be allocated to the BJP chief in the Parliament House. The BJP either will have to re-design the two rooms it has been allocated on the ground floor to accommodate Shah or the party chief will have to be contended by sharing room with L K Advani who has an independent room and practically has no work.

Dhumal, Anandiben as Governor as Malhotra gets MoS rank

With the BJP's founder and 90-year old Vijay Kumar Malhotra who has been in political wilderness like many others for the past 44 months, being given the Minister of State rank, it is clear that he will not go as Governor. Initially Malhotra was offered a Governor's post but he put a condition that he be sent to Punjab. Modi refused and Malhotra went into political wilderness. Now Modi bestowed upon him a favour by granting a private secretaryto him as he is holding the rank of a Minister of State as he is the president of All India Council of Sports. All India Council of Sports is the representative body all sports bodies in the country. It is now clear that Prem Kumar Dhumal of Himachal Pradesh and Anandiben Patel of Gujrat will be sent as Governors. There are at least four vacancies of governors at present and the same will be filled anytime.

Fly on the Wall : Nitish Kumar gets a Bungalow in Delhi

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta 

Nitish Kumar gets a Bungalow in Delhi

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had been struggling for long to have a bungalow at the Lutyen’s Delhi for almost a decade. Normally, Chief Ministers are given this privilege by the ruling parties at the Centre though there is no specific rule. Ever since the principle of giving bungalows to VIPs falling in the Z plus security has been dispensed with, the problem compounded. Nitish Kumar faced the problem for almost ten years as the UPA never allotted him a bungalow as he was an ally of the NDA. Though the state government repeatedly wrote to the Centre but to no avail. Unfortunately, when Modi came to power at the Centre, Nitish Kumar deserted the NDA targeting Modi. Thus, he was left high and dry again. But full 42 months later in the NDA regime, Nitish Kumar’s long wish of having a bungalow in Lutyen’s Delhi was fulfilled. The Urban Development Minister Hardeep Puri reportedly took the matter to the Cabinet Committee of Accommodation and the chairman Rajnath Singh consulted the Prime Minister informally in this regard. After a lot of confabulation, Nitish Kumar was given Type VIII ministerial bungalow in the Lutyen’s Zone last week. It was earlier occupied by his friend and former Solicitor General of India Ranjit Kumar who had spent tons of his personal money to re-do the entire house. It was also inspected by Hardeep Puri who informed Nitish Kumar that it is the best bungalow available at present. Nitish sent his consent and thanked the PM. 

Is Sharad Yadav political adviser to Rahul?

How Rahul Gandhi and the Congress Party changed its stance and agreed to share seats with almost all like-minded parties in Gujrat Assembly polls over-night has surprised party veterans. Talks had broken down with NCP and even the three young musketeers were talking in different tune. An upbeat Congress leadership was unwilling to give peanuts to these new groups. Sonia Gandhi’s key political adviser Ahmad Patel was rushed to AIIMS to undergo emergency heart treatment and things were going haywire. Though he went back in a short span. But it is learnt that something happened and everything was normal. It transpires that Rahul Gandhi had a rather long meeting with Sharad Yadav at his residence. What transpired between the two could be anybody’s guess. But Yadav is an old hand in caste-politics and explained to Rahul Gandhi how the party could never come back to power as it lost crucial caste alliances. The Congress must seize it and its time party should take everybody along. He told Rahul that his objective should be 2019 Lok Sabha polls as once Gujrat is clinched, the dissidents within BJP will grow. Sharad Yadav is also talking to AAP leaders though Congress is firm not to have any truck with it. Yadav wants AAP to field its candidates in such a way that the BJP suffers a set back. 

Why its Waterloo for BJP & Modi

It is no secret that the entire Cabinet has been deployed in poll bound state of Gujrat and the BJP headquarters has been airlifted to Gandhinagar. Amit Shah is claiming that there is nothing new as the BJP always contested polls in states like a war machine. But political pundits say stake are very high in Gujrat compared to any other Assembly poll. Dissidents like Varun Gandhi, Shatrughan Sinha, Kirti Azad, Shyamlal Gupta and a couple of other sitting Lok Sabha MPs  are waiting for the outcome of Gujrat results on December 18. Any adverse outcome may shake the current political fabric and alignments. Though the RSS will continue to bet on Modi despite differences on one issue or the other. But it is aware that Gujrat is the key for 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP has more than 140 Lok Sabha MPs who came from nowhere in the party and given tickets in 2014. Any slide in Gujrat will shake the confidence of these fence sitters. Therefore, the entire focus of the BJP-RSS is to enhancethe BJP’s Gujrat tally of 117 out of 182. The Capital is agog with reports that some of the MPs who have fallen out with the leadership may look around for some political opportunity if there is any slide in BJP’s tally.

Watch out Milind Deora in Congress shake up

  

Milind Deora, former Lok Sabha MP and son of late Murli Deora is set to play a key role in the Team Rahul after he assumes the charge of Congress president. It has been decided that no major shake up will be undertaken in the organisation until the Budget session of Parliament due to pressing circumstances. It will rather be a slow process as immediately after the Gujrat & Himachal Pradesh, Parliament’s Winter session will set in and once the brief session is over, the party will face elections in three states of North East. Then, the Budget session will commence on January end and end early April. Therefore, those eyeing key positions will have to wait for some more time. But Milind Deora is the man to watch.

Rahul Gandhi is a good, clean person

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Prez Polls: Oppn may field Sharad Yadav

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive  News Report 

President’s poll :  Opposition may field Sharad Yadav as its candidate

  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, April 11

With the BJP mobilizing its 33 allies to get its own Presidential candidate elected in the polls slated for July this year, the Opposition parties have also geared up to field a “common candidate” against the BJP nominee.

  

Janata Dal (U) leader Sharad Yadav’s name has emerged as a consensus candidate for the President’s post. Highly placed sources say that a preliminary discussion has already been held in this regard between Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury. Both leaders felt that the Opposition parties should together field a candidate for the President’s post where the BJP is still short of a majority. It was also stressed that if most of the small & regional parties like TMC, Biju Janata Dal, TRS, YSR (Congress), JD (S), JMM, DMK & AIADMK and others come together,  the Opposition candidate can emerge victorious. It was Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who first spoke to Sitaram Yechury in this regard and he held informal talks with the Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav and then met Rahul Gandhi. The RJD leader, Lalu Prasad Yadav is also supportive of the idea of putting up a joint candidate.

Though Sharad Yadav’s name has not been finalized as yet. But considering the prevailing political situation in the country, a candidate has to be either from backward or scheduled caste or scheduled tribe community. Though the Congress Party was initially of the opinion that Vice President Dr Hamid Ansari be put up for the post of President as a joint Opposition candidate. But it was felt that the candidate should be outside the Congress Party if Opposition unity is to be achieved.

The NCP leaders have also been sounded in this regard and they have shown their inclination to support Sharad Yadav for the post. The Opposition parties are aware that the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are have already roped in 33 political parties across the country in the NDA and expanding their base. The NDA already has 48% of the popular votes in its kitty and its candidate will make it to the post unless all the remaining parties join hands in supporting the common Opposition candidate.

But one thing is clear; the Congress & opposition parties won’t allow the BJP to get its candidate without a contest. “We will give BJP run for its money in the presidential poll,” said a senior Opposition leader familiar with political developments.

Caste in silence

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Most of the policy roadblocks the Narendra Modi government now faces that might have been set up by its predecessor, the Congress; but BJP, today's ruling party, was complicit in the acts. The 2013 Land Acquisition Act is a classic example. Sumitra Mahajan, currently the Lok Sabha Speaker, headed the committee that vetted the bill; she let it pass with an approving nod. During discussion of the bill in the Lower House, BJP's Lok Sabha leader Sushma Swaraj was among its most vocal supporters. But Modi wanted it to be overturned from day one he came to power. Such excessive exhibition of interest by BJP in populist policies, with a potential to backfire, has become Modi's albatross.