Fly on the Wall | BJP’s offensive worries NCP

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP’s offensive worries NCP

The BJP seems to have mounted a fresh offensive against the NCP leadership after a lull. Two recent acts have turned heads. The first case relates to Enforcement Directorate action against former Maharashtra minister Anil Deshmukh which forced NCP supremo Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule, Jayant Patil and others to repeatedly come out in his defence. What has made NCP leadership worried is the extremely proactive action by the ED as if the agency is in a hurry after being instructed by political bosses in Delhi. It is not as if the CBI and other agencies have not registered cases against NCP leaders in the past. But such super speed action was never witnessed before. But it is the second action by the Maharashtra BJP against Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar that has raised eyebrows. The BJP’s top Maharashtra leadership recently passed a resolution named Ajit Pawar in the Sachin Waze case. The BJP specifically asked for a CBI probe against Ajit Pawar based on Sachin Waje's letter. Though both- the BJP and NCP down-played the dragging of Ajit Pawar’s name in the case, insiders say that a lot is cooking in Maharashtra’s “unworkable” ruling alliance. The BJP high command seem to be veering round to the view that any alliance with the NCP will not be in the larger interest of the party either in Maharashtra or the country as a whole. The one-day wonder experiment is better be buried and the BJP should launch a full throttled attack on the NCP. Whether any arrangement with the Sena is arrived at or not is a secondary issue. Thus, the twin actions are part of this strategy. Whether this action will result in any future alliance with the Shiv Sena or not, is yet to be seen. PM Modi has taken the Maharashtra affairs in his own hands now and he has the habit of throwing surprises.

BJP’s UP Waterloo

The BJP leadership is extremely worried about UP Assembly polls due next year. Though polls are taking place in Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur too. But BJP’s watershed moment will be what happens next in the “Ulta Pradesh”. The hearts of the Opposition leaders are gladdened after the shock defeat of BJP in West Bengal and Mamata’s tumultuous return in the most ugly poll battles. The BJP had many handicaps in West Bengal, the foremost being the language barrier. None of the top BJP campaigners was familiar with the local language. The BJP had not projected anybody as its CM face and it had no grass root presence either in villages. However, they forget that UP is not West Bengal. Here, the BJP is already ruling the state and Yogi Adityanath is a tough CM. His graph went up in UP ever since the message went around that he did not buckle under the pressure of Central leadership. Secondly, the BJP has a battery of local leaders and no outsider tag can be fixed. In West Bengal, the BJP had a fierce and personally honest adversary like Mamata. Despite best efforts, she could not be dislodged through defection or other means. In UP, the Opposition leaders have all sorts of corruption charges being probed by CBI, ED, Income-Tax and others.

In the given scenario, the UP Assembly poll may be as polarized as we witnessed in West Bengal. It is also gradually emerging that Akhilesh Yadav of Samajwadi Party will emerge as the rallying point of the Opposition and Congress, RLD and others will come a cropper. The Jat community will go against the BJP due to farmers’ agitation and may lean towards Akhilesh Yadav along with the Yadavs and Muslims. Even Mayawati may not be able to swing the SCs’ votes as she used to in the past. These factors are worrying the BJP high command despite BJP being on the strong footing. The outcome will have a bearing on the Presidential poll due July 2022 too. Thus, a lot is at stake in UP for the BJP and PM Modi.

Uttarakhand: A new pain in the neck

While mystery continues to shroud as to why sitting Uttarakhand CM Trivendra Singh Rawat was shown the door in a mid-night coup by the high command, the incumbent Tirath Singh Rawat finding it difficult to choose his Assembly seat. He has to get elected as an MLA before September 9. He can contest from Gangotri or Haldwani. Both fell vacant after the demise of sitting MLAs due to Covid. Trivendra Singh Rawat can also be asked to vacate his Doiwala seat and Tirath Singh can contest from there. But Tirath Singh is scared of contesting a byelection in the current adverse political scenario. The Election Commission is quiet and so is BJP high command.

Indecision in BJP delays tickets in Delhi, Punjab, Chandigarh

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Indecision in BJP delays tickets in Delhi, Punjab, Chandigarh

Sitting MP s on Chopping Block 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, April 7

The BJP leadership is in a serious dilemma as to what it should do in Delhi, Punjab, Chandigarh and remaining two seats in Haryana. In all, the BJP has announced 406 candidates for the Lok Sabha polls and announcement for the 31 seats has been withheld. This include all the seven LS seats in Delhi, three out of 13 in Punjab, lone seat in Chandigarh and two in Haryana.

The leadership wants to do a major surgery in Delhi as there is huge anti-incumbency against some of the seven sitting M Ps.

Sources in the party say that at least three sitting Lok Sabha MP s may be shown the door including Meenakshi Lekhi, Lok Sabha MP from New Delhi, Udit Raj from North West and and Mahesh Giri from East Delhi. Gautam Gambhir is set to get the nomination from New Delhi after he made his maiden entry in the party a few days ago. Udit Raj has been voicing his concerns against some of the policies of the party. Though he was brought with big fan fare. But his performance in the constituency was a matter of concern. The third victim could be Mahesh Giri from East Delhi. Union Cabinet Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan may be shifted to East Delhi and a new face may enter Chandni Chowk where Kapil Sibal may be a common Opposition candidate if there is an alliance between AAP-Congress.

The BJP leadership is extremely worried in Delhi despite claims of massive Modi wave and wants to bring new faces to avoid any anti-incumbency. A Congress-AAP alliance will surely give the BJP run for the money as Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal continues to command following among the poor sections of the society. His hard bargaining with the Congress to concede seats in Haryana, Punjab and Goa in lieu of three seats in Delhi is delaying the process.

But many in the BJP feel that this shows party's weakness and sending a wrong signal. In all likelihood the party may announce its candidates for the remaining seats of Haryana, Punjab and Delhi within the next 48 hours.

It now transpires that the BJP leadership is undecided whether to field a Jat candidate from Rohtak or a non-Jat. Chief Minister Manoharlal Khattar feels that a non-Jat be pitted from Rohtak as the non-Jats are against Hoodas.

The BJP failed to win three seats in Haryana during the massive Modi wave and Rohtak was one of them. In Punjab, the BJP-Akalis alliance is in serious trouble where Capt. Amrinder Singh of Congress is very strong.

A search for candidates by the BJP in Amritsar, Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur is on.

Ends

Never say die !

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

With the collapse of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), first in Punjab & Goa, and now in the recently held Municipal polls in Delhi, the last “hope” of the Opposition politics is heading towards self destruction. No doubt, the opponents too are working over-time to inflict a body blow to the four-year born baby. But most of the AAP’s wounds are self-inflicted. If the party is heading towards the funeral pyre, its no one’s fault. Its none else than Arvind Kejriwal himself.  

Gone are the days when he was the darling of the media, the down-trodden and the middle-class. It was Kejriwal who had stunned the nation by trouncing the  BJP in its citadel by winning 67 out of the 70 Assembly seats. The rout of the Congress which ruled the Union Territory for 15 years under Shiela Dikshit, was of no consequence. It was expected due to variety of reasons. But it was he who single-handedly halted the victory march of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was a severe blow to the BJP and sent its leaders into a shell.  The “alternative politics” became the narrative. It was not as if the country was not aware of Kejriwal’s national ambitions. After all, he had contested 500-odd Lok Sabha seats in May 2014 and came a cropper. Yet AAP winning four Lok Sabha seats in Punjab raised eye-brows. But it was his win in Delhi that aroused a new kind of  “Hope”.The “secular forces” needed a horse to ride and Kejri was right there. He was the man of the moment.

The timing of his rise in 2013 was most opportune and he never looked back until the big shock in Punjab & Goa and then in Delhi which was his citadel. The Congress had lost the plot in May 2014 and could never recover from the shock tally of 44 Lok Sabha MPs. And this was not all. The party started losing one state after the other and with the BJP scouting for “talent” in every state, the Congress suffered one set back after the other. So much so that veterans like S M Krishna opted to “dump the sinking ship.” A prominent Madhya Pradesh Congress leader had almost clinched his re-entry into the BJP. It was nixed at the last minute by one of the Trioka members (Modi-Shah-Jaitley). 

The Congress’ two sitting Chief Ministers will face their litmus test this year end in Himachal Pradesh & Karnataka. It is also an irony in the era of Congress bashing that its victory in Punjab is not attributed to the  Gandhis. The credit for Capt. Amrinder Singh’s win is attributed to his leadership and to the BJP which did everything possible to ensure AAP’s rout. Secondly, AAP’s one blunder after the other in Punjab helped the Congress to dislodge the Akalis after ten years. Why the Congress leadership can’t be credited with Punjab win ? Look at the MCD poll results in Delhi ! Rahul Gandhi’s hand-picked Ajay Maken ensured that the party secures the third position. Therefore, the most worrying aspect is that the Congress leadership failed to create “hope” amongst its rank and file and Rahul Gandhi’s inability to enthuse the voter is widely accepted. The Left parties who commandeered Central governments from outside, have now been reduced to single digit in Parliament. It is now confined to Tripura and even here, BJP chief Amit Shah is determined to snatch the Left’s last Bastion. The Indian Left is facing a leadership crisis and it is desperately searching for a Kanhaiya to save it from virtual extinction.

The less said the better of another prominent national political party, the BSP which has nearly 20% votes fixed votes in over 100 Lok Sabha constituencies. But she is fast losing the plot and surfacing of her recent audio-tapes could be a turning point in Dalit politics. Her image is already sullied and the BSP is virtually on the verge of extinction in both houses of Parliament. The Lalus, Mulayams, Mamatas have destroyed their own image as one scam after the other hits them and their parties. This has brought Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is considered a clean politician at a crossroad. If he dumps Lalu, his government goes. Alternatively, he can re-join the NDA. The BJP also badly needs Nitish Kumar as it wants Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats in its kitty. The BJP is aware that it will be difficult to sweep Lok Sabha polls in Bihar if it contests alone and Nitish-Lalu-Congress stay together. In either case, his dream of emerging as a consensus candidate for the Prime Ministerial post from the Opposition benches is in jeopardy.

Therefore, its a pitiable situation for the Opposition, at least for the moment. For the very survival of democracy a strong Opposition is needed. But one cannot expect the Modi-Shah to create the Opposition. The leaders on the Opposition benches will have to re-invent themselves. The Opposition will have to find a leader who is capable enough to take other parties along. Arvind Kejriwal had showed the charisma and there was a moment when the Left parties were willing to do business with him. But he lost the plot due to his self-destructive over-ambitious politics. Rahul Gandhi had ample opportunities to lead the party from the front and provide the leadership. But he too missed the bus. May be he will have to re-orient and re-invent.

If BJP can re-invent after 14 years of struggle after being routed in 1984, why shall the Opposition be in a hurry. Modi’s honey-moon is not over yet and the Opposition parties do not have 24X7 politicians like Modi and Amit Shah. But political parties don’t die, only their corrupt and incompetent leaders fade away with time. The parties bounce back.

Tussle for RS seats begins in Congress

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

￭ Kapil Sibal may return from Punjab
￭ Party keen on Anand Sharma from HP
￭ Uncertainty over Chidambaram, Jairam Special

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Feb. 7
Former Union minister and senior counsel Kapil Sibal may return to the Rajya Sabha from Punjab. Though Himachal Pradesh chief minister Virbhadra Singh had shown inclination for Sibal, the party high command has signalled its keenness to nominate Anand Sharma from the state.