Fly on the wall | Mamata's game of 50

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mamata's game of 50
The Game-2024 for the Lok Sabha polls has already begun. While the Congress Party is desperately working hard to revive itself and putting its entire might to win a couple of states in the ensuing round of Assembly polls early next year, the BJP is trying hard to defend its citadel in four states; UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. Punjab is being watched very closely as its an open game with pollsters predicting a win for the dark horse AAP though its early days. These polls are also crucial for some of the regional players like SP, and BSP who have been facing BJP's onslaught for the past seven years in UP. But for most of the regional Satraps in the East, West and Southern regions, these Assembly polls are not of much consequence.

In the East in West Bengal, Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is rather waiting for the Congress to suffer a setback. She knows that she is not a player in North Indian politics and remains unruffled as her honeymoon with the Congress is virtually over. She is now on her own trip with poll strategist Prashant Kishore advising her actively. If grapevine has it, she is now targeting to secure 50 Lok Sabha seats during the 2024 parliamentary polls as she can be a player in any non-BJP government formulation. This is a huge target considering her appeal confined to West Bengal with 42 Lok Sabha seats. She hopes to polarize the state the same way as Modi did in 2014 and 2019. Rather, she will have an added appeal to the voters saying; vote for me as I can be PM, a first Bengali. She may be anywhere between 34-37 Lok Sabha in 2024. But to win extra 13-15 seats, is an Herculean task. She is working hard to replace Congress in the North East comprising 22 Lok Sabha seats. She has already brought senior Congress leader Sushmita Dev into the party and was rewarded with a Rajya Sabha seat to influence voters in Assam and Tripura. She is also making a strategy to get a couple of seats each in Odisha, Jharkhand and even Bihar and enter into strategic adjustments with parties in states where Bengali voters are in large numbers.

The DarK Horse Uddhav
Until the other day, NCP Supremo Shaarad Rao Pawar was the only name that always cropped up for the post of PM probable. But knowledgeable sources say that unassuming Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray could be a new player in the Game-2024. He has changed the entire culture and ethos of Shiv Sena during the past two years in power. Uddhav is in the driver's seat and shown to the people how a coalition government is run. With no one around to take on the mighty BJP juggernaut Uddhav's style of working has given some hope as well. He has been a successful manager, measured in his responses, doesn't mince words either and knows when to keep quiet.

He is managing two very ambitious leaders, Sharad Pawar and Nana Patole with tremendous skill. Political pundits say if India gets a hung parliament, Uddhav is the man to watch. Uddhav has mastered the art of retaining his hard line Hindutva credentials and at the same time running a secular government without big jerks.

He continues to be close to the RSS, goes to Ayodhya, meets Modi and still keeps his secular partners happy. In addition, he also takes pride in his Maratha identity. The Sena has also shed its anti-minority violent image too. In a way, Uddhav Thackeray can be India’s first secular Hindu nationalist. It will be difficult for the BJP to use the minority appeasement bogey against a Hindu party. In addition, big corporate houses in Mumbai also like him. Interestingly, they are the same houses who bow before Modi in Delhi, But keep Thackeray in good humour in Mumbai.

Rising graph of Stalin
After two powerful southern leaders; K Kamraj and J Jayalalitha, failed to grab power in Delhi, DMK's M K Stalin is contemplating trying his luck. But he is not in a hurry and is slowly consolidating his position. He is looking beyond 2024 even if there is a hung house three years down the line. Poll strategist Prashant Kishore is a common factor between Stalin and Mamata Banerjee. If Mamata is targeting a 50 seats game, he is not far behind either. Currently, he is creating an identity raising issues like “federal structure” etc without talking politics directly. He is busy mobilising non-BJP Chief Ministers on key issues.

Fly on the Wall | Modi drawing Leaf out of Nehru

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi drawing Leaf out of Nehru

There is no dearth of cheerleaders who have termed the Chinese withdrawal from the finger areas in the Galwan Valley as “historic” win for PM Modi. No doubt, with visuals of Chinese withdrawal created a fervor and a welcome development. But it was certainly not the first time when the Chinese had retreated from the Galwan Valley. They had done it first time on July 7, 1962 by unilaterally withdrawing from the same Galwan Valley bringing huge jubilation in the country and relief to the then PM Nehru. In fact, India had not retreated an inch from the Galwan Valley then. But the Chinese retreat was a trap as they returned 96 days later on October 20, 1962 to attack India. India suffered a humiliating defeat then. The cheerleaders may have forgotten the lesson in history but not Modi. He is aware of the pitfalls ahead and it is because of this very reasons that neither Modi nor NSA Ajit Doval have spoken a word about it. Even Defense Minister Rajnath Singh gave no details when he read out a statement in Parliament on February 11. The MEA has also been coy about the agreement. Reason: If the Chinese have retreated from the Pangong Tso, India has also retreated from the Rachin La and Rezang La hills in the Kailash range. India is now mounting pressure on the Chinese to pull back from the Hot Spring, Gogra in the Depsang Plains. Modi is waiting with a bated breath of what the Chinese will do in the days, months or even the years to come. Modi has been deeply hurt. After all, it was he who invited Xi Jingping in 2014 to Gujrat Riverfront and both were spotted swinging together. But April 2020 intrusion changed the course. He has drawn a leaf out of the archives not to allow the Chinese to take him for a rise.

Business & Border inter-linked

Modi has made two major changes while dealing with China and Pakistan; one is that Business bonhomie and Border confrontation can’t go together and two; External Affairs Ministry won’t be allowed to dominate decisions of the Defense forces on the ground. Modi snapped all ties with Pakistan after his failed unscheduled Pakistan visit in December 2015. The same is being done with China after the April 2020 border row when India was in the midst of Covid crisis. The trade ties can’t be snapped overnight. But they have been put in the slow lane, banned Chinese apps, no Chinese entry in 5G technology and no free flow of FDI either. Secondly, the forces have been given a free hand to deal with the situation on the ground without overriding powers of the MEA. The MEA will be in the loop certainly.

How Modi pipped Rahul

Rahul Gandhi may have inadvertently given pleasure to the “Modi Bhakts” when he said in Puducherry the other day that there should be a ministry of Fisheries in Delhi. It was a faux pas as Modi had created such a ministry in June 2019 itself and Giriraj Singh continues to be the first Minister for Fisheries. But what was drowned in the butt of jokes was that Rahul Gandhi wanted fishermen to be treated as farmers. He wanted that fishermen be treated as ‘farmers of the sea’ like the farmers of the land. But his message was lost and Modi picked up the thread sitting in Delhi. He has a sharp nose, worked quietly and a decision was taken overnight. Next day Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced that Fishermen in 9 states and 4 Union Territories will also be treated as farmers. Shah did not stop at this. He went on to announce that millions of fishermen will be entitled to the benefits under the PM-Kisan and get Rs 6000 per year. Obviously, it will directly benefit the fishermen in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry – all poll bound states. According to the Fishery Survey of India, 2003, the population of fishermen in India was 1.44 crores.

Importance of being Nana Patole

Rahul Gandhi may have been busy launching a blistering attack on Modi on three farm laws. But what a pity! The AICC doesn’t have a Chief of Kisan Congress for one year after Patole quit. Insiders say the post was kept vacant by Rahul Gandhi for his bête noir as Patole as PCC Chief. Perhaps, he may do backseat driving in the Kisan Congress too.

Fly on the wall - PM’s olive branch to Azad

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

PM’s olive branch to Azad

Whether it was an emotional gesture or deep politics, no one can vouchsafe. But it was the rarest of the rare moment in Rajya Sabha on Tuesday last when PM Modi told Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Aazad, “Do not feel like you are no longer in the House. I would not let you retire, I will continue taking your advice. My doors are always open for you.” Azad is bidding adieu to his 41 year long parliamentary career. It transpires that the Gandhis were upset with him for something and hence he was not re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha and left high & dry. It is in this backdrop that Modi made this offer stunning everybody. Modi has never made such an offer in public to any Opposition leader. On his part, Ghulam Nabi Azad made no secret of his chemistry with Modi saying, “Two people always greeted me during festivals and my birthday for many years - Congress president Sonia Gandhi and PM Modi." Aren’t bells ringing!!! The BJP doesn’t have a tall Muslim leader and those in its kitty are hardly of any stature. Ghulam Nabi may be of use for Modi’s international brotherhood outreach having huge experience behind him.

Pawar & Cong disconnected!

There is a long history of love-hate relationship between the Congress and NCP since 1999. They buried the hatchet to form the MVA government. But all is not well these days and gone are the days of Sharad Pawar-Rahul Gandhi bon-homie. Pawar is unhappy because the Congress torpedoed his plans to make him UPA co-chairman and now he is on his own trip. He is stitching alliances with TMC, SP, YSR-Congress, TRS, BJD, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and others. Rahul is content with the DMK, Left, IUML etc. Even the RJD is cool towards Rahul Gandhi these days. The Congress was left in the lurch when the delegation of 10 Opposition parties went to meet farmers on Delhi borders consisting of Supriya Sule and others. The appointment of Nana Patole as Maharashtra PCC Chief turned out to be the last straw in Camel’s back. Pawar’s reluctance to give the Speaker's post to Congress is part of NCP’s plan, say insiders. Is something cooking??? Watch out!!

Cooking Golden goose

When the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) scheme was launched by Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru in November 1951, had not imagined that it would become a tool in the hands of the rich to cook golden goose. It was to help employees in the public and private sector with employers contributing their 12% share in their accounts. There was no limit for employees to deposit money in their accounts. The interest income is tax-free without limit. For 70 years, the rich employees raked in mullahs. But they did not realize that PM Modi has the uncanny knack of tracking those making a killing. Interestingly, top bureaucrats who are big beneficiaries of this scheme never pointed it out to successive Finance Ministers about rich employees making a killing. The PM sought a detailed report and was shocked to learn that the largest single deposit in the account of one employee in EPF was over Rs 100 crores. It was also noticed that such employees earned tax-free interest income of more than Rs 50-60 lakhs year after year. The number of such huge beneficiaries is 1.20 lakhs employees and they put a staggering Rs 62,500 crores in their EPF accounts. There are 5 crores EPF account holders. The EPF has a corpus of Rs. Seven lakh crores as on February 1, 2021. The scheme was for employees earning Rs 15000 or more a month. The Union Budget has capped interest free income at Rs 2.50 lakhs per year now, down from Rs 50 lakhs earlier. Another loot and scoot stopped!

Biden, So near & so far

When US President Joe Biden nominated 20 Indian-Americans to key positions in his administration, it was hailed as a big win for India and Modi's leadership. But analysts pointed out that Biden excluded those who are considered close to the RSS-BJP like Sonal Shah and Amit Jani. Sonal Shah’s father was the president of Overseas Friends of BJP-USA and is the founder of RSS-run Ekal Vidyalaya. The suspicions of Biden’s not-so-friendly attitude came correct when many close to the Biden administration lent their support to agitating farmers in India including the niece of Vice President Kamala Harris. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar has a tough task in hand.

Fly On the Wall | Pandemic over by June!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group 

Click here to read in Hindi & Marathi

Pandemic over by June!

Strange it may sound but true. The Modi government signed the vaccine purchase agreement with the two Covid Vaccine manufacturers (Serum Institute, Pune & Bharat Biotech Ltd, Hyderabad) only at the eleventh hour. It has not signed any agreement with any of the world Pharma companies including Pfizer or Moderna or for that matter with Russia’s Sputnik V. Yet India is set to launch the world's first & largest adult immunization program. Many other nations including the WHO financed billions of dollars for vaccines. But Modi showed his true Gujrati skills and waited till the end when sellers were desperate as they had stock-piled. Modi could do this largely because the pandemic is receding in India and there is no clamour among the people to get vaccinated like in the West. The Covidshield may not have been invented in India, but it is being treated as one because Seerum is supplying to the world. But many leading scientists may have questioned the way BBL’s Covaxin was given emergency clearance by waiving efficacy data. These include immunologists like Ms (Dr) Gagandeep Kang and Dr. Vineeta Bal, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Pune. Even Dr Ganga Khedkar, ex-head of Immunologist department said he won’t take the Covaxin until efficacy data comes. Yet, the going for Modi has been good. Many in the PMO say that India will overcome the pandemic by May-June without vaccinating 80 crore people. He may, perhaps, get rid of his grown up beard then.

How Govt pushed for Covaxin

There is an interesting tale behind the Covaxin. As soon as the pandemic broke out in March, the PMO tossed a question towards ICMR chief Dr Balram Bhargava – Can you develop a vaccine and by when? The ICMR and its battery of scientists & immunologists have been bossing around for decades. But such a question was never posed to them by the PMO. Frankly speaking, the ICMR never invented any vaccine either of its own. Bhargava went back to his 9-member vaccine panel headed by Dr Gangandeep Kang. There was silence of the grave. The PMO was getting restive. One fine morning, Dr Bhargava dissolved the ICMR vaccine panel in early May as the PM constituted the National Task Force on Vaccine directly under him. Dr Kang quit ICMR to go back to Vellore. Modi may not be a scientist but he knew there is enough politics among the scientists too and took the command in his own hand. Within days, the ICMR-Bharat Biotech signed an agreement on vaccines.

Why was Bharat Biotech chosen?

No answers are available till date as to why ICMR chose BBL to make the vaccine. No doubt, ICMR has been working closely with Bharat Biotech and many other Pharma companies for years and has partnered with it for Rotavirus and H1N1 vaccines earlier. No one has a clue till this date of the clauses of agreement between ICMR-BBL. What is known is that the ICMR had transferred the Coronavirus strain isolated at its National Institute of Virology, Pune to BBIL for making the vaccine in May 2020 itself. What is also known is that Dr Bhavgava had created a furor by asking the BBL to produce the Covid vaccine by August 2020. He even issued a terse letter in this regard. The letter surfaced in public domain embarrassing the government as it was felt Modi wanted to make an announcement from the Ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15. The ICMR had to eat crow when BBL couldn't produce the vaccine by August 15. But the Covaxin is ICMR’s baby and all regulators had to fast-track clearances tweaking laid down procedures without Phase-III efficacy data.

Kejri’s Konkani love

Arvind Kejriwal is considered a maverick and is not the one to give up. After his failed 2017 attempts, he has set his eyes on Punjab, Goa, Uttrakhand and UP again going to polls in 2022. In order to gain a toy hold in Goa, he hit upon a novel way and set up Konkani Academy in Delhi. There was no such demand for academy and no one was clamouring for it either. But Kejriwal’s sudden love for Konkani is not missed by rivals in Goa who are poking fun at him. Obviously, the national Capital will see a lot of cultural activities to promote Konkani language and Goan culture. Will it fetch votes for AAP in Goa where Kejriwal had lost deposits in all the seats? You guess!

Fly on the Wall - Mumbai model for new Congress Chief!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mumbai model for new Congress Chief!
How the new Congress president may be democratically elected in place of Sonia Gandhi if polls do take place for the coveted post? As many as 1400 plus AICC delegates & others have to be elected first and then they will elect a new CWC and eventually a president in February 2021 unless polls are postponed. The AICC managers hit upon a novel method and tested it in Mumbai to elect Mumbai Regional Congress Committee chief. It is now called the Mumbai Model. The General Secretary incharge of Maharashtra HK Patil sent a voice message to 450 designated party functionaries: I am AICC incharge HK Patil speaking. I seek your views on who should be the president of Mumbai Congress. After the beep, send just one name. Your answer will be kept confidential. Thank you”. No one knows who followed the drill and who didn’t. But the mandarins in the technical team of Rahul Gandhi working behind the scenes, took enough care that the process is executed with finesse. It’s a different matter that no one among 450 delegates knew till date who sent which name and how MRCC president was chosen. But one thing is clear that this Mumbai Model will may be executed in AICC polls too. Since Rahul Gandhi’s loyalists are determined to install him as party chief. The AICC media head, Randeep Surjewala has already said that 99.9% want Rahul as CP. He already knows the mind of 99.9% of the 1400 AICC delegates. The last word has yet to be written.

Rahul & his new mobile
When the 5-hour long meeting took place at Sonia Gandhi’s residence at 10 Janpath, Rahul & Priyanka were in tow to receive the invitees. The Gandhis wanted a virtual meeting over Zoom. But none of the dissidents including Ghulam Nabi Azad, Anand Sharma, Bhupinder Singh Hooda were ready for it. They insisted on a face-to-face meeting which Sonia Gandhi eventually agreed to. But many leaders were dismayed that Rahul Gandhi was glued to his new iPhone 12. A leader who was part of the meeting said Rahul remained busy with his mobile for nearly three hours. In between, he left the meeting twice to interact with Kamal Nath and A K Antony and attend to urgent calls. Sonia Gandhi, on the other hand, remained seated for full 5-hours without a break.

Hooda stuns the conclave

Former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda is a soft spoken person and rarely talks tough. But he was perhaps the only one among the dissidents to stun the gathering. Ghulam Nabi Azad, Anand Sharma, Prithviraj Chavan and many other letter writers were speaking in a rather conciliatory tone. When Hooda’s turn came, he didn’t mince his words. Rather, he sent the chill in the otherwise warm weather in the sprawling lawns. Hooda said he is fighting a lonely battle in Haryana against the BJP which had pumped Rs 100 crores to win the Baroda Assembly seat in a bitter byelection. Yet he was able to defeat the BJP against all odds. Hooda did not stop there and went on to say that had he been made the leader of the party in Haryana three months prior to State Assembly polls last year, the Congress would have got the state. “Unfortunately, I am not accepted as leader in Delhi while people in Haryana adore me,” said Hooda in a pained voice. There was a silence of the grave.

Nadda’s rising clout
With BJP president J P Nadda down with Covid and recovering, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has taken charge of Assembly polls in West Bengal due next year. Shah was out of action in Bihar for some strange reasons. But now he is leading the onslaught on Mamata Banerjee from the front. However, Nadda is working overtime sitting home and played a key role in the selection of seven Union Ministers who were made inchage of seven regions for Assembly polls. It is learnt that the selections were made as per the PM’s desires and many favourite ministers were excluded causing surprises. Obviously, Nadda's graph has been risen after Bihar win and other polls. Only recently, a couple of Chief Ministers of BJP ruled states wanted to call on the PM. But Modi politely conveyed to them to first apprise the party president about the issues.

JD (U) slide worries BJP - Priyanka back in Lutyen’s Delhi

FLY ON THE WALL

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

JD (U) slide worries BJP

Irrespective of Modi’s undiminished Charisma and immense popular appeal, the BJP leadership has a reason to worry in Bihar. As the state enters the second phase of bitterly fought polarized battle, the BJP is rattled as its key partner Nitish Kumar’s graph is on the downhill. The mishandling of migrant labourers and Coronavirus issues may cost him dearly and hurt BJP more in the months to come if the NDA loses Bihar. It is not as if the BJP was not aware of the sliding graph of Nitish Kumar. All internal surveys conducted by the RSS and the BJP signaled that Nitish Kumar's popularity is waning. The vocal Bihar BJP leadership wanted to go alone smelling blood riding on Modi wave. It was in this background that PM Modi, BJP president J P Nadda and Home Minister Amit Shah held two rounds of talks on Bihar in June-July. A conscious decision was taken to go with Janata Dal (U) as the consequences of dumping Nitish Kumar could have been fatal. It would have pushed Nitish Kumar to go back to the RJD-Congress. In order to off-set the anti-incumbency factor of Nitish Kumar, a buffer zone of sort in the form of LJP’s Chirag Paswan was created. It was done with the hope that LJP could cut into anti-Nitish Kumar votes which otherwise would have gone to the RJD-Congress-Left combine. But as the campaigning picking up, collapse of JD (U) is more visible. Secondly, Coronavirus has invaded the top leadership of the BJP beginning with Devendra Fadnavis, Sushil Modi, Mangal Pandey, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Shahnawaz Hussian and others. Amit Shah is also out of action.

BJP's Bihar Waterloo 

The BJP was on the seventh Heaven after its tumultuous win in May 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But its stars started fading as it suffered one loss after the other in states. If it failed to form a government in Maharashtra, it had to depend on Dushyant Chautala in Haryana to form the government. Then it suffered humiliating defeats in Jharkhand and Delhi in 2020. Therefore, a Bihar win is vital for the BJP. A Bihar loss will have a direct bearing in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, kerala, Puducherry and Assam where Assembly polls are due early next year. Many in the BJP say it will be happy to emerge as a single largest party in Bihar. Therefore, the BJP has changed its strategy mid-way. It may hold a few rallies of the PM in constituencies where BJP candidates are contesting without Nitish Kumar. Some posters are already out in the public without Nitish Kumar. Secondly, the PM will be more aggressive in his speeches in the days to come.

Priyanka back in Lutyen’s Delhi

After a brief stint in Gurugram in Haryana, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is back in Lutyen’s Delhi. She vacated her government bungalow a couple of months ago when the Modi dispensation served a notice. She shifted to Gurugram for a short while and now back in Sujan Singh Park near Khan Market. However, she doesn’t meet political workers at her residence due to paucity of space. Her security guards are having a tough time as the residential complex itself is very small.

Ram Madhav’s big slide

It seems BJP’s rising star has run out of luck with the party. He was incharge of the Jammu & Kashmir affairs and North East. He too played a key role in formulating BJP's J&K policy and helped forming governments in some of the North East states. He runs India Foundation which worked for Modi in the US and other countries before he became the PM. When he was removed as BJP as general secretary, it was widely believed that he will get a Rajya Sabha seat and possibly a ministerial berth when reshuffle takes place. It was also expected that he will be nominated to the Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh where the BJP is set to win at least eight out of ten seats. But his name didn’t figure in the list. It now transpires that he is vacating his South Avenue government flat also which he had been allotted as general secretary. The last word on his new assignment is yet to be heard. One report is that he may now go back to the RSS as he is now full time “Sangh Pracharak”.

Fly on the wall - Emergence of a New Amit Shah & What next for Chirag ?

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Emergence of a New Amit Shah 

Union Home Minister Amit Shah is known for talking straight without mincing words. Lately, he was out of action for almost three months after being hit by Covid and related health issues. His absence was felt by many because the Prime Minister is not known for opening up. Even the BJP Chief J P Nadda prefers to keep his counsel and shun the media. There is no one in the ruling establishment who carries authority to speak on thorny issues. After former Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis was made incharge of Bihar poll, powerful BJP general secretary Bhupendra Yadav also decided to maintain a low-profile. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh is coming out of his cocoon but confines himself to the task assigned and speaks on Defense related issues only. There is none in the hierarchy who commands authority. It was at this juncture that Amit Shah broke his silence and dwelt on many issues. But this was a different Amit Shah as he was not full of fire & fury. Rather, he maintained a completely low-profile. Yet, he put the record straight and disapproved many a things that the hardliners in the Parivar were doing; be it Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshiyari’s letter to CM Uddhav Thackeray or linking of drug cartel probe to only Bollywood, media trial in the Sushant Singh Rajput case, Tanishq advertisement on communal harmony and what not. He was telling clearly that neither the Centre nor he per se, had any hand in all that had happened during the past three months. In a way, he was rather clarifying that neither he and nor the party should be blamed for it or if it had hurt anybody. Whether he was trying to build bridges with Shiv Sena, could be anybody’s guess. But he clearly told Bollywood that he doesn’t approve of what the Narcotics Control Bureau had done or what the Paparazzi in TV channels were doing despite their political affiliations. Certainly, it’s a new Amit Shah not the one the country knew so far. (Click here to read original article)

Putting a cart before the Horse

There is considerable surprise in the medical fraternity as to why a hype is being created over

Coronavirus vaccine. A series of meetings are being held at the highest level lately and all concerned including states have been told to draw up detailed plans how the vaccine will be distributed and who will be vaccinated first. A list of roughly two crores priority people have already been drawn up. Remember the days when the Railway Ministry converted 20000 coaches into Covid beds without much planning which are still lying idle or ICMR setting August 15 deadline for Covid vaccine! Barring China, no country is claiming any vaccine at least until April 2021. The USA & Europe have rejected India’s claim to waive off Intellectual Property Right (IPR) for vaccines at the WTO. Of course, some companies including Indian ventures are working on antibody drugs instead which can give relief for six months or so. India has not paid a penny for any upfront payment to procure vaccines to any global company. But plans are being drawn up to get vaccines distribution. Experts say “It’s like putting a cart before the horse”.

What next for Chirag ?

All eyes are set on the Prime Minister who will begin his mega Bihar poll campaign on October 23 as to what he will say about Chirag Paswan. Though BJP’s Bihar unit called Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) as “vote katua”, Devendra Fadnavis, incharge of Bihar, avoided any such adjectives. Even Amit Shah ducked the question saying, “We will see after the elections.” The Janata Dal (U) is pressing BJP leadership hard to throw LJP out of the NDA at the national level right away and refusing to give Rajya Sabha to LJP fell vacant after Ram Vilas Paswan’s death. It seems NDA is somewhat on a weak wicket in Bihar.

Atmanirbhar Bharat, what a pity 

The government banned 101 items for being imported in the defense sector with big fanfare claiming these will be manufactured in India as part of Atmanirbhar Bharat. When the list was finally uploaded by the Defense ministry on its website, there was amusement. Why ? It turned out that more than 40 items were never imported for years. The ministry banned the Hull-mounted Sonar even though DRDO's HUMSA and USHUS sonar suits are mega successes already. In another bizarre move, the ministry canceled tenders of more than a dozen companies who had started their manufacturing units to meet defense needs only. Now these companies have been left high & dry and shut down. This was done after a series of negotiations for the supply of ammunition since 2016.

A mysterious Fadnavis-Raut Mission - Fly on the wall

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group


A mysterious Fadnavis-Raut Mission
The tremors of Fadnavis- Raut close-door 150-minute meeting continue days after the event and even felt in Delhi. The top BJP leadership is also maintaining a studied silence except for saying that Fadnavis is tasked to oversee Bihar elections. There is no general secretary incharge of Maharashtra after the exit of the affable Saroj Pandey. Is the BJP smelling blood in Maharashtra again, not really? The party is in no hurry and feels the present government will crumble due to inherent contradictions. Then why Sanjay Raut’s 150-minute close-door meeting with former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis ? No one is buying the theory that it was held to discuss modalities of Fadnavis’ interview with Shiv Sena’s mouthpiece, Saamana. But there are no takers of Fadnavis’ statement either where he said “politics was not discussed”. Is the turf ready to pull down the Uddhav Thackeray ? The CM’s baiters allege that he has largely been confined to his Matoshri residence even once for eight months and his handling of the economy is dismal. However, Pawar is enjoying fruits of power in Maharashtra and Uddhav is reaping the harvest and never had it so good. Did he dispatch Sanjay Raut as his emissary on a secret mission? Doesn’t look like it! Was Raut playing solo? Political watchers say Sanjay Raut is his own master these days.

Click here to read more

And a Failed Amit Shah- Jagan meet
If the Fadnavis-Raut meeting is shrouded in mystery, another unreported meeting between India’s second most powerful man Amit Shah and Andhra CM Jagan Mohan Reddy ended in a damp squib. The Union Home Minister who was incommunicado since August 2, held a rather long chat with Jagan after declining to meet him twice before. Amit Shah granted the audience after a word came from the PMO to grant him time. Jagan wanted funds for Polavaram project, GST compensation among other favours. But Amit Shah was worried as the NDA has weakened after the exit of Sena and Akali Dal. Insiders say that Amit Shah sounded out Jagan if his party, YSR Congress would join the NDA. Amit Shah is reported to have told Jagan that TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu is also keen to re-join the NDA. But the BJP wants to start a new inning with YSR Congress. It transpires that Jagan expressed his reluctance to join the NDA due to his party’s strong Christian-Muslim-Reddy vote bank. But he agreed to lend support to NDA wherever needed. Amit Shah was not impressed and the meeting ended in a fiasco.

BJP's New Modi from South!
Ever heard of B L Santosh ? If not, the loss is entirely yours. He is the new man on the horizon in BJP. Many in the ruling party go to the extent of saying that he is Narendra Modi of South though not as charismatic as the PM is. If Modi brought BJP in power in Gujrat, Santosh brought the saffron party to power in Karnataka in 2008. If Modi installed Kesubhai Patel as CM, Santosh installed B S Yediyuruppa as CM. Santosh never looked back since then and was promoted as BJP general secretary incharge of the Organisation 11 years later. A chemical engineer, bachelor and 24X7 RSS worker, Santosh is a no-nonsense, tough man. He is tech savvy and a person with an open mind and new ideas. He watched Shahrukh Khan’s “Chuck de India” ten times to understand how the spirit of patriotism can be inculcated among the party workers through visual medium. He reminds of the days of late Sunder Singh Bhandari who built the party with Atal-Advani-Nanaji Deshmukh. The recent shake up in the BJP is attributed to Modi-Shah-Nadda Trimurti. But the man behind the entire exercise where 4 powerful generals secretaries and seven Vice presidents were shown the door is B L Santosh. Of course, some may be accommodated in ministries and others as Governors. But Santosh convinced the RSS and party high command that new blood is needed for 2024 now if BJP wants to gain in five major Southern Indian states, North East and West Bengal. The Growing Beard

Why is PM Modi growing his beard these days? Everyone in the town's talking about it but no one has the answers. Not even those who interact with him. One explanation is that the PM doesn’t want anybody in his immediate proximity due to Covid. A hairdresser to trim his beard can cause infection. Therefore, everybody is kept at arm’s length including those who serve at his official residence. There are a few who feel it may have something to do with ‘divine” help he is seeking to fight Coronavirus.

Fly on the Wall - How Modi ticked off his Cabinet Minister

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

How Modi ticked off his Cabinet Minister

Harsimrat Kaur Badal who quit as Cabinet Minister for Food Processing in protest against 3-farm-related bills, had a taste of Prime Minister Modi’s style of functioning. She tried hard to persuade Modi to defer them and failed. When she sought an appointment, she was politely told by the PM’s aide to contact the Home Minister or party president J P Nadda. Amit Shah was convalescing after returning from the AIIMS and not available. Left with no option, she knocked at the doors of Nadda. She told Nadda that if these bills were passed, she would be left no option but to quit the government and maybe even the NDA. She wanted the bills to be sent to “Select Committee of Parliament” as a last ditch effort. An ever smiling Nadda had a tough task in hand as Akalis are BJP’s oldest ally for five decades. What transpired between Nadda and the government is not known. But Harsimrat Kaur was told that if she tendered her resignation from the Cabinet, it will be accepted without delay. When the bills were finally passed in the LS on Friday last, she sought an urgent appointment again as she wanted to tender her resignation. The PM was sitting inside his Parliament House chambers and she walked up to the room. She told the PM’s aide that it's urgent for her to meet the PM. But the worst was in store for her as the PM refused to meet his own Cabinet Minister when she went to his office as he was extremely busy. A frustrated Harsimrat Kaur handed over her resignation letter in a sealed cover to a junior aide in Modi’s office. Rest is history. Modi accepted it without blinking. 

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BJP looks for life without Akalis?

Many in the BJP are upbeat who say it is time the party should dump the Akalis and reinvent itself in the key Northern state. It dumped Chautalas in Haryana and emerged victorious. The Akalis have lost miserably, barely winning merely 17 Assembly seats and two Lok Sabha seats in Punjab. S S Dhindsa and several senior leaders have quit the “Parkash-Sukhbir-Harsimrat private limited company”. But some in BJP have cautioned not to risk the border state in over enthusiasm and go-slow. The BJP suffered huge setbacks in Maharashtra, Rajasthan and yet to gain ground in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Tamil Nadu etc. It is thriving on defections in Manipur, Goa, Madhya Pradesh etc. Even in Bihar, it is playing second fiddle to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Therefore, efforts must be made to consolidate alliances not break them. However, there are no takers of this contrarian view in the BJP.

Race for new TRAI Chairman

All eyes are set on the next chairman of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) as R S Sharma demits office on September 30. The TRAI plays a crucial role in making and breaking the fortunes of telecom companies. During Sharma’s 5-year tumultuous tenure, the “Punjabi lobby” lost a lot of its clout and the “Mumbai lobby” emerged Number One. The new chairman will decide on spectrum pricing, entry of 5G players, predatory price and many more. Of the 88 applicants, the selection committee headed by Cabinet Secretary is reported to have short-listed Rita A Taeotia’s name for the post. If appointed, she will be the first woman to become TRAI chief. Teotia is a tough bureaucrat and a former Commerce Secretary belonging to the Gujrat cadre of the IAS.

CBI groping in the Dark 

For six years, the CBI has been going after the “FAM” (Gandhi Family) and “AP” (Ahmad Patel) in the AgustaWestland helicopter Rs 3727 crores deal. It was alleged that AP got 3 million euros while FAM got 15 million. The deal was clinched during the UPA regime for the purchase of 12 VVIP helicopters. When the charges of bribery surfaced, Dr Manmohan Singh canceled it and a CBI inquiry was ordered. The country was rocked over the scandal and hogged headlines. The CBI filed two chargesheets against former Indian Air Force Chief and other officials, middlemen including middlemen Christian Michel James, Rajiv Saxena and others. But lately, there is a silence of the grave and as no politician was found to be involved in the second supplementary chargesheet. The CBI continues to be groping in the dark. The BJP says “wait for the third chargesheet!”.

How Modi used UPA era Act to control Covid-19 - Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

How Modi used UPA era Act to control Covid

The Congress has been strongly criticizing Prime Minister Modi for usurping the powers of states while dealing with Covid epidemic/pandemic. But it conveniently forgot that the Disaster Management Act (DMA) under which Modi did it was enacted during the UPA regime in 2005. Modi as Gujrat Chief Minister had vehemently opposed the proposed Bill and alleged that the UPA wants to swallow powers of the states. But he was the lone voice in his own party as the Central BJP leadership looked the other way. When the Coronavirus broke out in 2020, Modi invoked the same 2005 Act to declare it a as national epidemic and took complete charge under the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). The NDMA is directly under the Prime Minister who is its chairman. Shockingly, Section 6 & Section 10 of the DMA, 2005 give enormous powers to the PMO which some experts considered harsher than provided for in the Article 356.

Why Amit Shah came on the scene late

Suddenly, Union Home Minister Amit Shah is in the fore-front of fighting the battle against Covid. But It’s a wrong popular notion that Home ministry is nodal agency to handle the Corona pandemic. But its not. The Act clearly says the MHA is responsible for response, relief and preparedness for natural calamities and man-made disasters. But not ‘drought and epidemics’ which is under NDMA with PM as Chairman. The NDMA website reveals that Amit Shah is not even a member of the NDMA. Though the NDMA should to be 9-member body with a Vice Chairman. But currently, it has five members; G V V Sarma, Kamal Kishore, Lt. Gen. Syed Ata Hasnain (retd), Rajendra Singh, and Kishore Vatsa and no Deputy Chairman. The Union Home Secretary is Chairman of the National Executive Committee (NEC) under the NDMA. But its a dual role. He issues orders to ministries and states not as Home Secretary but as Chairman of the NEC on the direct orders of the PMO.

Priyanka Gandhi’s House riddle

After being told to vacate the 35 Lodhi Estate bungalow, the last word on Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s next destination continues to baffle political class. The widely reported speculation is that she will shift to Lucknow in late Shiela Kaul's house to strengthen the party in UP. It is said she is unwilling to shift to Lucknow immediately due to on-going Covid-19 pandemic and UP emerging as a new hot spot. Secondly, she doesn’t want to take the risk of traveling to UP along with the family now. She will not go to her husband Robert Vadra’s palatial flats in Gurgaon. Reason; Robert Vadra loves to walk in the Lodhi Gardens in the morning and Priyanka in the evening. Vadra keeps tweeting photos while walking in the Lodhi Gardens. Insiders say that she may temporarily shift to 10 Janpath House of her mother with daughter Miraya.Robert can keep shuffling between Gurgaon and Delhi.

Rohan Jaitley for DDCA ?

Late Arun Jaitley’s son advocate Rohan is in the news these days. Jaitley’s friends and associates want him to become DDCA president, a post once held by Jaitley himself. Elections are due after Rajat Sharma resigned. The last word is yet to be known.

Fly on the Wall : Javadekar Kicks Teachers' Awards lobbyists out

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Javadekar Kicks Teachers' Awards lobbyists out

After Lutyen's Delhi was banished from the list of Padma Awards, the time is up for teachers to lobby for most prestigious National Awards. For the first time in Independent India, the practice of seeking names of best teachers from states for these awards has been abandoned. Human Resources Development Minister Prakash Javadekar decided to invite applications from teachers from all over India online directly. The only condition was that the teacher seeking National Award must have done something innovative or made extra-ordinary contribution to qualify for such an award. There were protests from the states as they felt that their powers have been curtailed. But Javadekar's answer was simple- states can also nominate if they so desire but the parameters will remain the same. Perhaps, Javadekar had discussed with the PM this innovative idea before over-hauling the time-tested lobby system. The PM gave the go-ahead as he himself must have been unhappy as he used to witness huge pressure as Chief Minister of Gujrat with recommendations. Javadekar constituted a high-powered committee to select 50 awardees from amongst 6000 applications. These 50 will be awarded on September 5 at Vigyan Bhawan. A senior HRD ministry official said there is a Lutyen's Zone in every state Capital and all awards were reserved for toppers living in such zones. Surely, if Modi disbanded Lutyen's Zone wallas from the list of Padma awards, Prakash Javadekar sent them for a six in the teachers category. Watch out other ministries in the years to come. Now it may the turn of the doctors.

Atal makes maiden entry in JNU

When Atal Behari Vajpayee was Prime Minister, he wanted the party to make inroads in the Left-controlled Jawaharlal Nehru University. Barring a success here and there, the Sangh Parivar failed to crack the Left bastion. However, his dream was fulfilled without any murmurs by HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar last week. Vajpayee was rehabilitated in death. Javadekar met a large number of people and convinced them that the government was willing to walk an extra-mile to make JNU a world class institution. It is willing to grant new courses including the School of Management and Engineering. The Executive Council of JNU was convinced that starting these courses would go a long way in enhancing its stature. Then came the plea that the Management Centre be named after late Atal Behari Vajpayee. Marathon discussions took place at various levels as Javadekar didn't want any controversies. He wanted matters to be resolved through negotiations rather than bull-dozing his way. The end result - Executive Council paid its fulsome tribute to Vajpayee and proposed to name it as 'Atal Bihari Vajpayee School of Management and Entrepreneurship." Of course, some felt that this would "dilute the research-oriented nature of JNU". But Atal made the entry, finally.

Timing of removal surprised N N Vohra

N N Vohra who had been holding the fort in Jammu & Kashmir for more than ten years, left the Raj Bhawan on an unhappy note. Though an appointee of Dr Manmohan Singh in 2008, PM Modi decided to retain the seasoned bureaucrat. But Vohra had realised for the past some time that his days are numbered and started taking up cudgels on issues which were alien to him. During the last two months, friction between the Raj Bhavan and the Centre and Army increased. Raj Bhavan officials say that for the past ten years Vohra hardly had any differences with the Army over the killings of the “innocents”. But suddenly his heart started bleeding for them and he raised voice at meetings with the top army officials which didn't go down well with New Delhi. Vohra also opposed the any dilution of Article 35A which defines State subject laws, in the Supreme Court until an elected government was in place. This annoyed Modi so much that he decided to send Malik at a very short notice giving no time to Vohra to do any “further damage.” The Union Home Ministry informed him over the phone that his successor had been chosen and Satya Pal Malik will take charge from him. But Vohra did not wait for Satya Pal Malik to come to Srinagar. He decided to leave in the morning itself though Malik was expected from Patna in the afternoon. Vohra was conspicuous by his absence during the swearing-in of the new Governor on August 23. This surprised political observers because Vohra has been stickler of protocol. Vohra had expressed his willingness to manage the Amarnath Yatra and ensure the smooth conduct of the panchayat elections by the end of the year. But Modi was unwilling to give any leeway.

Why Satya Pal Malik to J&K ?

Most political leaders in the BJP are eyeing to become Bihar Governor these days though Lalji Tandon has been put in place for the time being. Bihar Raj Bhawan is considered Touch Of Gold; whosoever occupied it, got a huge promotion. If Ram Nath Kovind rose to become the President of India, Satya Pal Malik hogged the national limelight by moving to Srinagar Raj Bhawan. Both came from UP and originally didn't belong to the BJP either. But both became integral part of the BJP. Modi picked them for key posts though he had no personal contact with them either. While Kovind was always a low profile and humble person, Satya Pal Malik was in the forefront of political events. He had played a key role in the fall of the Morarji Desai government and making Charan Singh as PM with the help of the Congress. Though Congress pulled the plug and Charan Singh lost power within months, Satya Pal Malik dumped his mentor. He joined the Congress which nominated him to the Rajya Sabha twice, in 1980 and 1986. Later, Malik deserted Rajiv Gandhi and joined hands with V P Singh and became a minister in his government. He later joined Samajwadi Party and finally landed in BJP. Modi picked up Malik for the post as he was very close to Mufti Mohammed Sayeed who was Home Minister in the V P Singh government. It was during this period that relationship grew and both came close. Malik considers Mehbooba as his daughter. It seems Modi may do business with PDP once again in Jammu & Kashmir. Perhaps, Malik may be of some help.

Fly on the Wall : Bitter feud bring CBI to a grinding halt

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall : 

Bitter feud bring CBI to a grinding halt

CBI director Alok Verma may have just four months to go before he demit office on December 1. But not a day passes when he is not involved in a bitter battle with his own deputy Rakesh Asthana. The latest saga began when Verma ordered on the file that statements of all the persons named in the diaries be recorded. In a written note issued to the Special Unit in the CBI, Verma directed that the diaries recovered from the premises of the promoters of Gujrat-based Sterling Biotech company offices be recorded without further delay. Several top politicians, bureaucrats and police officers have been named in the diaries recovered by the Income-tax department in 2011 which have now been handed over to the CBI for criminal investigation. The diaries had names and monies paid to those named. But Verma's target seems to be Asthana who was Police Commissioner of Surat whose name figured in the diaries as well. It is an irony that Verma was brought as CBI chief by the Modi dispensation in December 2016 while Asthana, a Gujarat-cadre IPS officer, is believed to be close to the PM and BJP president Amit Shah. No case has been registered against Asthana, the CBI director wants to formally record his statement in connection with the probe. This annoyed Asthana so much that he knocked at the door of the PMO alleging vindictive attitude of his superior. Verma also crossed swords with the Chief Vigilance Commissioner K V Chaudhary saying that Asthana had no mandate to represent the agency in his absence and should not be "consulted for inducting officers into the agency. Obviously, Verma was peeved that his plans to bring two officers of his choice in the CBI were thwarted by CVC. Verma wanted to bring Rajiv Krishna and R P Upadhyay into the CBI as additional directors. Both are considered close to Verma. But Asthana torpedoed Verma's plans. The last word on Verma-Asthana feud is yet to be written.

Adhia shows who is the Boss !

If CBI Chief Alok Verma is fighting with his Number 2 in the agency, Enforcement Director Karnal Singh has chosen to lock horns with Finance Secretary Hasmukh Adhia, Finance Secretary. While the government was keen that he send Rajeshwar Singh, an ED officer packing, Karnal Singh defied and retained him. But in a bizarre situation Adhia showed who is the real boss. Karnal Singh has lost the latest round with Adhia on the continuation of controversial officer who was handling sensitive cases. Adhia decided to take the command in his own hands and issued a written order sending Rajeshwar Singh on forced leave. The argument goes that Karnal Singh is not the administrative head when it comes to handling of the officers of the ACC level. Rajeshwar Singh investigated many key cases including Aircel-Maxis and others and the government found that all is not well. But Karnal Singh who was hand-picked by the Modi dispensation took a different line. With Karnal Singh due to retire in October, the government will now have the opportunity to anoint a trusted officer of its choice. It is heard in the corridors of powers that he will have the ears of the Almighty.

The games TDP,  PDP play

Two key allies of the BJP may have quit the Modi government and singing a different tune. In the case of Jammu & Kashmir, it was the BJP which deserted the Mufti government one fine morning and Governor’s rule was imposed. But neither the BJP speaking against the PDP and nor the PDP speaking personally against Modi. If insiders are to be believed, the divorce took place as both were losing their respective vote bank and decided to call it a day. May be after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, they may do business again. The National Conference led by Dr Farooq Abdullah has also sent clear signals that he is not averse to do business with Modi. It was largely because of this very reason that the PDP is abstaining in the Rajya Sabha whenever voting takes place. Same is the case with Andhra Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu who felt that he is losing ground to YSR-Congress for his failure to get “special status” for his state from the NDA. In the competitive politics of Andhra Pradesh, the TDP is left with no option but to part company with the BJP.  The BJP had also developed a feeling that it is not growing in the state. But the BJP is not poaching on the TDP MLAs in Andhra. The BJP is targeting the “corrupt Congress and YSR-Congress leadership”. The whisper in the corridors of power is that TDP will do business again with the BJP after the 2019 polls.  After all, Chandrababu Naidu wants “special status” for Andhra and has no Delhi Dreams like many other chief ministers.

As Sonia frail, Priyanka gives the helping hand

As the health of Sonia Gandhi not in good shape and Congress president Rahul Gandhi trying to cope with the massive pressure of work, young party managers are a worried lot. Though Rahul’s unofficial political secretary and former IAS K Raju is the key man in the system, things have yet to take shape. The loss of weight forced Sonia Gandhi even to abandon her planned trip to Red Fort on the Independence Day. The doctors advised against her visiting the hot & humid weather conditions as she is now weighted around 45 kg only. Though she did walk an extra mile to raise slogans along with the MP s in Parliament on August 10 morning on the Rafale issue, she was looking so frail and weak, the SPG commandoes had a tough time to handle the situation. She went there as Rahul Gandhi had left for Jaipur early morning leaving Sonia Gandhi to cheer up the party MP s. This has given room for intense speculation in the party for a greater role for Priyanka Gandhi. In any case, this being the election year and with Rahul Gandhi travelling all over the country, Priyanka has to focus on UP where the party is pitted against formidable BJP. Priyanka may not have held a position in the party but her writ runs, say insiders. Her official entry into direct political role is just a matter of time as she attended the funeral of M Karunanidhi. In an unprecedented move she also decided to address ladies of an  Entrepreneur's Organization in Mumbai which was a closed-door affair. But she stole the thunder with her highly emotional speech and ladies were seen weeping. It was first time the mighty club of Mumbai realized the oratory skills of Priyanka. In case the party decides to give her a direct role and she herself chooses to emerge from the shadows, prospects of Congress will certainly brighten.

Fly on the wall : Sushma Sermon to BJP MPs creates a flutter

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Sushma Sermon to BJP MPs creates a flutter

 External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj is very cautious of what she speaks and does. She plays so safe that people rather wonder if she is the same Sushma who used to bat on the front foot all the time and fire-brand speaker. But ever since she became a Minister under the Modi dispensation, she is a changed person. However, things are changing lately and Sushma created a stir at the BJP Parliamentary Party meeting on Tuesday last. She told the hundreds of BJP Mps present at the venue that they should not be seen in Delhi after August 10. They should create a buzz in every village and town about Modiji's schemes and success stories and achievements of the Modi government. She said no MP should be seen in Delhi after august 10 and stay in their respective constituencies. Sushma who spoke immediately after Surface Transport and Water Resources Minister Nitin Gadkari sent a clear message to the Mps that they should now focus on the constituencies alone. The MPs were surprised to hear the sermon coming from Sushma who virtually declared that Monsoon could be the last session of Parliament amidst buzz that Lok Sabha polls may be advanced to November-December when polls are due in four states; Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. Surprisingly, neither BJP president Amit Shah and nor the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi contradicted her when they spoke subsequently. The silence of Modi and Shah on this tricky issue made MP s worried too. Since Sushma is not known for jumping the gun, the MP s have no clue as what they should do next ? Better Quit the Capital after August 10 as directed by Sushma Behenji.

Rahul ready for a big hair-cut

Congress president Rahul Gandhi made it clear to top party leaders that he was all for alliances. But they should keep in mind that these alliances would be limited to four states only; namely, Maharashtra, UP, Bihar and Tamil Nadu. In other states, the party may have some adjustment of seats. But these four states alone account for 208 seats out of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. In these four states the Congress is expected to contest, if the alliances were put in place, around 50-54 seats. Sources say that the Congress would contest 22 seats in Maharashtra under a new arrangement being worked out, 10 in UP, 12 in Bihar and 10 in Tamil Nadu. Rahul reported to have told P Chidambaram categorically when he advocated for country-wide alliances to defeat PM Modi. Rahul said these four states, the party would enter into alliances and in other states there may be seat adjustment. He did not name any other state. But in west Bengal, the Congress will have seat adjustment with Mamata Banerjee and not an alliance and would contest 8 out of 42. This means, out of 250 seats, the Congress will contest 60 seats only. Mamata called on Sonia Gandhi on Wednesday and discussed the length the contours of broad-based understanding. But it is clear the Congress is ready to take a big hair-cut to ensure the defeat of Modi in 2019. Congress under Sonia Gandhi may have contested 461 Lok Sabha seats across the country. But things are different under young Rahul Gandhi who is realistic and quick in decision-making now. If things go as planned, the Congress is now mentally ready to contest 265-280 Lok Sabha seats. In Kerala too, it is already in alliance and with Mayawati seeking seats outside UP, the Congress tally may come down further. But one thing is sure; the strike rate of the Congress-led alliance will be far more damaging than what is anticipated.

Dy. Chairman's room gone too !

With no election of Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha in sight as the government not inclined to hold it due to lack of numbers, Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu moved a step further. The VP explored the possibility if a consensus for the post of Dy Chairman can be evolved and government tried hard. Finally, the government told VP that it won't to possible to do so during the Monsoon session of Parliament. It now transpires that VP has taken control of the Dy. Chairman's spacious room for the time being and put it to some better use. A dining table with a dozen chairs were put there and a temporary partition was created. Since the Vice President has to sit for long hours in the absence of Deputy Chairman, he has to sit in the House for long hours. Therefore, he decided to put up a bed to take afternoon nap in the Parliament House itself rather than driving down to his own residence at 6 Maulana Azad Road. In any case, there is no hurry to fill the post either as VP is doubling up for Dy. Chairman as well.

Amit Shah's 51% vote share dream

In the midst of contradictory signals, BJP chief  Amit Shah made it clear that there will be no early elections either for the Lok Sabha. Shah was quoted as saying that the BJP was all for simultaneous polls of Lok Sabha & state Assemblies. But unless there is a consensus or the BJP has required majority in Parliament, the proposal won't be implemented on a piece meal basis. “There is no question of early elections, we will not do give up power even for one hour as people have given us the mandate for 5 years,” he said to his core group team. Giving logic behind his plans, Shah said the BJP is targeting for 51 % votes in the Lok Sabha. He said that the BJP polled 47% votes in Kairana Lok Sabha bye-polls which is toughest seat for the party in UP. The combined Opposition may have won the seat. But the BJP improved its vote tally from 41% in 2014 in Kairana to 47%. Amit Shah is not worried over Opposition unity and reportedly said, “we are happy that Rahul Gandhi is being projected as PM, it benefits us since he is no match to Modi. It will give BJP 5% edge during the polls.  Amit Shah wriggled out figures after figures and said, the booth level committees of the BJP workers are effectively function in 7 lakh booths out of 9 lakh booths in the country. A batch of 25 workers on every booth is working and operations and connected with the headquarters on a daily basis. The party has a data-base of 14.3 crore members with their mobile telephone numbers, voter cards etc. The BJP is connected with them through SMSes. But he had no answer how he would touch 51% votes in 2019 when the party's vote share in 2014 was 31% votes. Secondly, in 2014, the Opposition parties were divided and Congress was in a disarray.

Fly on the Wall : The “hug” was no fluke, Rahul scripted it

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The “hug” was no fluke, Rahul scripted it

Ever since Rahul Gandhi took over as Congress president, he is learning the ropes, rather fast. If he took the party and political observers completely by surprise by dropping big guns from the Congress Working Committee last week, he also sent out a clear signal that generational shift has come here to stay. Then came his “hug and wink” storm in the Lok Sabha during the debate on the No-Confidence motion. The debate on the No-Confidence Motion has been relegated into the background while “Hug & wink” continues to make columnists burning their mid-night oil. To top it all, Rahul Gandhi himself is sending out contradictory signals over the “hug & wink” events. He told NDTV the same day that the 'Hug” was a spontaneous decision as he had sat down after finishing his speech and later got up and moved over to Modi. The Wink was also impromptu. But when he met women journalists on Tuesday over high-tea at the India International Center (IIC), he told them that he was thinking about it for the past some time. Rahul didn't disclose further. But sources close to him said that Rahul Gandhi gave considerable thought to his “hug” plan. These sources also say that the inner core group of the party comprising of Sonia-Rahul & Priyanka did discuss the consequences of such an initiative. Sonia Gandhi was slightly worried that it may not be parliamentary protocol. But Priyanka Gandhi said Modi has broken every parliamentary protocol by not allowing a no-confidence motion (NCM) during the Budget session. The NCM is Opposition's birth right. But even that was over-ruled. Therefore, there is nothing wrong in the hug. Thus Rahul's thinking was converted into action on Friday. In fact, Rahul Gandhi's speech was so good that he was overwhelmed and sat down. Suddenly he realised that he had forgotten the planned “hug”. He got up again to the surprise of the Speaker and others and started speaking for less than a minute. Instead of taking his seat, he moved over Modi, hugged him and gave the PM his first shock. The headlines next day was the rare Hug and not the motion.

Rahul’s PM card

Ever since “sources” in the Congress Working Committee said to the media after the mega event that Rahul Gandhi would be party’s prime ministerial face, all hell broke. Until the CWC, Rahul Gandhi was sending clear signals that his aim for 2019 is to defeat Modi and not become PM himself. It was almost year and a half ago when he said in an informal chat with the a select group of journalists, myself included, that he is willing to wait until 2024 or beyond, but Modi must go in 2019. The sourced report did the damage as Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar etc became unhappy. This was also contrary to what Rahul Gandhi had discussed with Sharad Pawar during his three long interactions. But he undid the damage  on Tuesday when he told women journalists that anyone, Mamata or Maya, could be PM. The Congress will support any "non-RSS-backed Prime Minister" in 2019  Rahul said and added the priority was to defeat the BJP and end the climate of fear that has entered "our homes". Asked if the Congress was open to a woman Prime Minister, he said that anyone not backed by the RSS was acceptable. With Congress’ U-turn on the PM’s issue, the hearts of contenders are gladdened.

Mamata wooing Congress for tie-up

It is now clearly emerging that Congress will enter into some-sort of alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the TMC in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. While the CPM general secretary, Sitaram Yechury was keen to tie up with the Congress in West Bengal, things are not working out. One of the reasons is that Congress and the Left are arch rivals in Kerala. Congress strategists have also advised Rahul Gandhi that the Left parties, in any case, will support any combination of like-minded parties from outside. Therefore, let the Left parties go alone in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. It has some claim over 3-4 seats in other states which may be considered sympathetically later. But the Congress should go with Mamata Banerjee during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress has a legitimate claim over 7-8 seats in West Bengal out of 42 seats. But the TMC is willing to concede 5-6 seats with the argument that the strike rate of this combination will be very high. The TMC-Congress can combine is capable of winning 39 Lok Sabha seats as most of the cadre of the Left parties has either the BJP or the TMC. The TMC had won 34 and the Congress 2 Lok Sabha seats during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and both had contested separately. The BJP is targeting to win 21 seats in West Bengal on the back of anti-incumbency of Mamata, cow vigilantism, Hindu sentiments and Modi wave. Mamata is keen to join hands with the Congress too hoping to overcome this anti-incumbency and emerge as Consensus Prime Ministerial candidate.

The UP Seat-sharing formula

The SP-BSP have evolved a seat-sharing formula in UP and conveyed the same Congress & RLD. The formula is that  whosoever won or came second in the state during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, will get the those seats. As per this formula, the Congress can get 7seats while the RLD of Ajit Singh can stake a claim on two seats. The remaining seats will go to the SP-BSP. Now the young leadership surrounding Rahul Gandhi comprising of RPN Singh, Jitin Prasad and others want the party to be realistic and settle for 10 seats. On Tuesday, BSP leader Mayawati said she would join the Opposition alliance only if it gets a "respectable number of seats" to contest in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan elections and also in the Lok Sabha. Obviously, the BSP wants pie in other states before conceding even 10 seats to Congress. Hence, Rahul’s PM card.

Jayant Advani to contest from Gandhinagar ?

Jayant Advani, the only son of veteran BJP leader L K Advani had a long meeting with the Prime Minister last month. It so happened that when he was in his factory in NOIDA, his mobile rang and the PM was on the line. Jayant Advani met the PM and later Modi called on L K Advani along with party chief Amit Shah. The purpose of the visit was to understand if L K Advani would like to contest again in 2019 from his traditional Gandhinagar Lok Sabha seat or make room for someone of his choice. The BJP leadership is keen to explore all these contentious seats and in the process of deciding whether seniors above 75 years of age be repeated or their kith and kin be accommodated. While Modi is reported to have kept quiet, Amit Shah broached the subject if the octogenarian leader would like to contest. Advani heard them but reported to have said nothing.

Fly on the Wall : Babri case may not be fast tracked, CJI blinks

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Babri case may not be fast tracked, CJI blinks

It is now clearly emerging that the Ayodhya case hearing in the Supreme Court is unlikely to be fast-tracked. Contrary to popular perception that the Chief Justice of India Dipak Mishra will constitute the bench and commence hearing of the highly emotive dispute and settle the case before he retires on October 2. It was expected by the ruling BJP leadership that the SC will constitute the bench and commence hearing within the week of its opening. But now it is emerging that the CJI Justice Dipak Mishra will not play ball and the case will be taken up in due course. In the run-up to the 2019, all eyes are on the Supreme Court that it will commence hearing the contentious Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid title dispute. Before the vacation, when the Ram Bhakts pressed for a day-to-day hearing, Muslim litigants in the case had expressed strong reservations against it. Senior advocate Kapil Sibal had pleaded that the appeals should be deferred until the next Lok Sabha elections. Government lawyers have been nudging the court to decide the issue at the earliest. Without giving a clue of his thinking, CJI Mishra adjourned the case to be taken up after the long summer vacation. Now two weeks have gone by and the date and the bench is nowhere in sight. Highly placed sources say that unless something dramatic happens, the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri land dispute case is headed to the south.

Govt. disappointed with Justice A K Sikri

There was a time when ruling BJP leaders were throwing hints that the sitting Supreme Court judge, Ranjan Gogoi may be superseded after CJI Dipak Mishra retires in October. It was also whispered that Justice A K Sikri who is fourth in the line of succession will be the new Chief Justice of India instead. The government was peeved with Ranjan Gogoi as he had addressed a joint press conference with three other brother judges and questioned the functioning of the SC under the leadership of CJI. Indirectly, the judges had taken a dig at the working of the Modi dispensation in influencing the judiciary. But things didn't work the way the government may have thought. When the Karnataka Governor's decision to allow 15 days time to the BS Yedurappa to prove his majority on the floor of the state assembly was challenged, the matter was listed before the bench of Justice A K Sikri. PM Modi made a personal phone call to former AG Mukul Rohtagi to appear for the BJP and seek relief. Sensing that the BJP is losing the game, Rohtagi pleaded with the bench to give time until Monday. But Justice Sikri's bench was unmoved and no relief was granted. The BJP lost its face and credibility. As if this was not enough, Justice Sikri did not give favourable verdict in favour of the Centre in the bitter battle with AAP's Delhi government. These two set backs changed the thinking of the government and it is felt that super-session is not a good idea particularly in an election year. Secondly, the BJP will lose its main plank against the Congress if does the same what late Indira Gandhi did when Justice A N Ray superseded three senior judges and all quit in protest.

Will Sonia pave way for Priyanka from Rae Bareli?

The Capital is agog with speculation that Sonia Gandhi may bid adieu to the electoral politics and may not contest from Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat. Instead, she may pave for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Sonia Gandhi is withdrawing from the day-today political activities and passed on the baton to Rahul Gandhi in December last year when he took over as Congress president. There has been clamour for a long time in the Congress that Priyanka Gandhi may be brought to the fore and it will boost the prospects of the party in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It will electrify the workers in UP and elsewhere. In any case, priyanka Gandhi has been working a backroom boy for Rahul Gandhi for a long time and managing affairs from behind the curtains. Sonia Gandhi, it may said contested from the Amethi constituency in 1999 and shifted to Rae Bareli in 2004 which she continues to represent till date. However, she has not been keeping a good health and unable to campaign intensively which she used to do earlier. Sonia Gandhi wants that the family bastion Rae Bareli seat be retained in the family and Priyanka Gandhi may be brought to the fore. The assessment is Priyanka's induction will improve the bargaining chip of the Congress in the Hindi heartland.

When Modi tried to charm Kharge

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is mending fences with the Opposition leaders lately. On Tuesday after the all-party meeting ended, Modi saw senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge walking slowly. Modi asked him to come along as he was to drive home after the meeting and Kharge was also leaving. However, Kharge recited a small poem in Hindi to the surprise of Modi. He said, “Jab Raja Hilta Hai to Mulk Hilta hai, Jab Kazi Hilta Hai to Dadhi Hilti Hai, Aur Jab Aapki Gadi Hilegi to Hum Bhi Hilenge”. (When the King moves, the country moves, when the judge of the Sharia court moves, his beard moves, and when your cavalcade moves out only then I can leave). Kharge was telling him that due to the security, the PM has to leave first and only then others can leave. This caused a huge laughter in the entire corridor and Modi enjoyed the dig.

Fly on the wall : Congress's Kejriwal riddle in Delhi

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Congress's Kejriwal riddle in Delhi

Congress president Rahul Gandhi's plan to clinch alliances or adjustment of seats with the like-minded parties has hit major hurdles in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Delhi. While the talks in rest of the states are going smoothly as a team of three senior leaders – Ghulam Nabi Azad, Ahmad Patel and Kamal Nath – is working over-time to negotiate an amicable settlement. The talks with the BSP are progressing slowly but they are in right direction as Mayawati is wanting pan-India alliance with the Congress. Kamal Nath is insisting that it should be state-by-state as every state has different political situation prevailing. He wants Mayawati to come on board irrespective of alliances in other states. But the bigger problem is in Delhi which has seven Lok Sabha seats. The AAP is keen for adjustment of seats despite bitterness in relations with Shiela Dixit and Ajay Maken. If sources are to be believed, the AAP has offered New Delhi for Ajay Maken, East Delhi for Sandeep Dixit and Outer Delhi for any candidate of Congress choice. But the Congress is playing pricey though it is in on a weak wicket in Delhi as its a divided house. The AAP argument is in a four corner contest – Congress, BJP, AAP & BSP contesting separately, the BJP is sure to get all seven seats. The ball is in the court of Rahul Gandhi now. Similarly, the Congress is at a cross roads whether to go with Mamata Banerjee or CPM in West Bengal. The one-to-one meeting that Ahmad Patel had with Mamata Banerjee yielded no results. Serious problem exist in Andhra Pradesh where Congress is struggling to find an ally. The YSR Congress of Jagan Mohan Reddy has his own problems and doesn't want any pre-poll alliance with the Congress. Its a fate-accompli for the Congress in Andhra. 

The Baffling Silence of CBI in Sterling Biotech case 

All the spotlight may be on Vijay Mallya for defrauding banks. But the silence of CBI is baffling in the Sterling Biotech case despite the fact that the two Sandesara brothers are hiding in Nigeria. They fled the country, like Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi and several others, along with their key family members with ease. The Enforcement Directorate (ED) went to town claiming attachment of assets worth over Rs 4,700 crores in the Rs 5,000-crore fraud case. But CBI officials are silent even one year after registering the case which is in sharp contrast to the speed with which cases P. Chidambaram, Lalu Prasad, Robert Vadra and several former Congress Chief Ministers are being pursued. The case surfaced after the seizure of a "diary" way back in 2011 from the Vadodara premises of Sterling Biotech by the Income-tax officials giving details of purported payments to some tax officials, politicians and police officers, including a Gujarat-cadre IPS officer who is now a CBI special director. The 11-page CBI chargesheet even named son-in-law of Ahmad Patel, senior Congress leader. Certain raided were also conducted on Patel's aides. It was claimed that clinching evidence exists establishing the nexus between the Congress leaders and Sterling Biotech  group owners. But sources say the probe is stuck as CBI is struggling to find evidence if the UPA government gave any favours to the Sterling group. On the contrary, it has surfaced through a fact-sheet that the group grew leaps and bounds during the BJP rule in Gujrat since June 2004. It was awarded contract for the development of Dahej Port and given 150 acres of land. The Gujrat government took the help in organising Vibrant Gujarat Summit as late as in January 2017. In November 2008, Nitin Sandesra, Chairman of Sterling Biotech who is  absconding, accompanied top Gujrat BJP leadership and government officials to Uganda and Kenya in his aircraft. The Vibrant Gujarat brochures of 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017 list Sterling Biotech as success story of Gujarat's pharma and biotechnology policies. Sterling SEZ was allotted 3000 acres to develop a SEZ at Jambusar.  The Government of Gujarat allocated additional 6000 acres despite complaints from banks that loans  to the group were turning bad. The Sterling SEZ was sitting on a land bank of 9000 acres given by the Gujarat Government by 2013. It transpires that some “action” may be taken in the weeks to come to cover the tracks. 

No Data Chief for months in Digital India

Ever since TCA Anant retired as the Central Statistics Officer on Jan. 31, the government has failed to find a replacement. The CSO was without a boss when it released figures last month showing the economy regained its position once again of being the fastest-expanding major economy in the world, with the growth of 7.7 per cent in the fourth-quarter of the fiscal year ended March 31. The PMO was somewhat unhappy with the way he used to come out with the data on the economy. At stake is the reputation of an institution that’s been working hard to rectify the image that India has deficient and unreliable economic data. With a population of 1.3 billion and an economy of $ 2.3 trillion collecting timely and accurate information is a gargantuan effort. With only months to go before the next election, the data is also coming under increased scrutiny as Modi’s political rivals question his claims about key campaign pledges, such as jobs creation and related parameters. The new methodology is also being worked out. For example, when the statistics office published a new series for a GDP that put India’s growth rate on par with China, eonomists said in 2015 that the data didn’t match up with high-frequency indicators showing more subdued expansion. It transpires that the PMO is looking for an outside expert for the job who is capable of gathering reliable economic data which is quite a challenging task.