by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta

A Quiet Exit, A Loud Loss

The BJP gained three extra Rajya Sabha seats across Assam, Odisha and Bihar — and then stumbled in Haryana, losing one by less than a vote. A statistical blip? Not quite. In politics, ghosts rarely stay buried. Just ask Jagdeep Dhankhar. Once elevated to the Vice President’s chair with much fanfare, Dhankhar’s abrupt exit turned him into what the party presumed was a closed chapter. No courtroom comeback (convention forbids it), no electoral rerun — politically mothballed. Or so it seemed.

But politics has a wicked sense of timing. Without contesting, campaigning, or even speaking, Dhankhar may have quietly swung a Rajya Sabha seat. The trail leads to Haryana — and to Abhay Chautala, heir to Devi Lal’s legacy. Dhankhar, post-resignation, has been staying at Chautala’s farmhouse — not as a guest, but almost as family. When the vote came, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), with its two MLAs, chose abstention over alignment. That silence spoke volumes. Had those votes tilted toward the BJP, the “lost” seat might have been secured.

This is where arithmetic meets emotion. Within BJP circles, unease is growing that the “Dhankhar factor” may not be a one-off. His unceremonious exit has reportedly ruffled Jat sentiment — not just in Haryana, but across Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh. The same community that once saw his elevation as symbolic empowerment now reads his fall as political discard. And in a region where caste equations often outvote campaign rhetoric, that perception can travel far.

The immediate loss? One Rajya Sabha seat. The potential cost? A slow, simmering political backlash. Because in Indian politics, it’s not always the loud exits that hurt — sometimes, it’s the quiet ones that echo the longest.

A mystery behind the coveted Bungalow 

For a man who once presided over proceedings with a firm hand, Jagdeep Dhankhar is now discovering that the real game begins after the chair is vacated. Nearly eight months after demitting office, the former Vice President is still waiting to step into his officially allotted Type-VIII bungalow at A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Road—prime Lutyens' Delhi real estate. The explanation? Renovations, technicalities, paperwork—pick your favourite bureaucratic alibi.

The irony is hard to miss. Here is a constitutional authority, once at the apex of the system, now navigating the same maze that ordinary mortals have long complained about. The allotment, we are told, happened months ago. The house, however, seems to be playing hide-and-seek—vacant, yet unavailable; allotted, yet not offered.

Even the formal letter of possession appears to be on an extended sabbatical. The ever-dependable Central Public Works Department is reportedly “working” on it—though what exactly is being worked on remains as elusive as the keys to the bungalow. Meanwhile, Dhankhar cools his heels at a private farmhouse, a temporary arrangement stretching into a long-term anecdote.

In the grand theatre of Delhi’s power corridors, this is less a housing delay and more a masterclass in how the system treats even its own veterans. Titles fade, protocols thin out, and the file—always the file—takes on a life of its own. For Dhankhar, the lesson is perhaps unexpected but unmistakable: in Delhi, you may enforce the rules once—but sooner or later, you must also endure them.

Nitish Going Nowhere: Health Concerns Aside

Despite persistent whispers over frail health and an impending transition, Nitish Kumar is signaling one thing with unmistakable clarity: he is not exiting Bihar’s political stage anytime soon. His move to retain the Janata Dal (United) presidency, even as he prepares to shift to the Rajya Sabha, is less a retreat and more a recalibration. The message within the NDA ecosystem is clear—Nitish may step aside from the chief minister’s chair, but not from the levers of power. Party insiders concede that his role in choosing a successor will be decisive. The name of Samrat Chaudhary is doing the rounds, but the final word rests with Nitish. His repeated public endorsements of the deputy chief minister are being read as both grooming and gate keeping.

Equally telling is the calibrated emergence of Nishant Kumar. Once shielded from politics, the younger Kumar is now being positioned as a future stakeholder—an evolution that underscores Nitish’s intent to shape the post-him era without surrendering control.

For the BJP, this arrangement offers continuity without confrontation. For the JDU, it ensures that its social coalition—particularly the Luv-Kush axis—remains anchored to a familiar pivot. By shifting roles rather than relinquishing relevance, he is crafting a soft landing that keeps him firmly at the centre of Bihar’s power matrix. Watch out for the new Assembly Speaker too.  

A Shake-Up, Finally

The long-whispered churn in the BJP ecosystem is edging from speculation to schedule. By May, a calibrated shake-up across party, government and its wider power grid now looks imminent. The timing is hardly accidental. A short Parliament session — expected to clear the politically loaded women’s reservation and delimitation bills — will give the government both momentum and manoeuvring room. With the current West Asia turbulence likely to cool by then, the stage could be set for a reset in New Delhi.

Inside the party, the organisational reshuffle has been on hold ever since Nitin Nabin took charge. That pause now appears tactical. A round of musical chairs is in the works: some ministers may be redeployed to strengthen the party apparatus, while fresh faces could be drafted into the Union Council.

At the centre of it all is Narendra Modi, who is set to complete two years of his third term in May — a natural inflection point for course correction. A cabinet reshuffle is expected, with performance, caste calculus and electoral signaling all in play. The possible entry of Nitish Kumar into the Union Cabinet adds another layer of intrigue. If executed well, this won’t just be a reshuffle — it could be a strategic reboot ahead of the next political curve.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

The Elite Lose Sleep

Ever since Narendra Modi took office, India’s bureaucracy has been jolted out of its comfort zone. The Prime Minister’s relentless work ethic—often stretching close to 20 hours a day—has steadily reset expectations across ministries. While most departments felt the shift early, the traditionally insulated elite of the Indian Foreign Service (IFS) managed to glide through with limited disruption, barring brief pressure spells during episodes like “Operation Sindoor.”

That insulation is now gone. A complex global crisis—one India is not party to, yet cannot escape—has dragged the Ministry of External Affairs into an unforgiving, high-velocity environment. At the centre is the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), operating in overdrive and demanding real-time responsiveness. For a service steeped in protocol and process, the change has been stark.

Take a recent instance: as tensions escalated overseas, the PMO sought an urgent conversation with a key global leader. What would earlier take hours—if not a full day—through diplomatic channels, was compressed into minutes. Senior IFS officials were on the phone past midnight, scrambling across time zones to secure the line. The old rhythm of calibrated diplomacy is giving way to a results-driven, time-bound approach. With conversations spanning time zones, officials are clocking 18–20 hour workdays, matching the tempo set at the top. A slight delay invited direct calls from the PMO, seeking explanations. This is the new normal.

This round-the-clock culture is unprecedented for the MEA. It marks a shift from ceremonial diplomacy to mission-mode execution, where delivery trumps decorum. For India’s blue-blood diplomatic corps, long accustomed to measured pace and hierarchy, the message is unmistakable: adapt or be left behind. The elite, it seems, are finally losing sleep.

Rahul’s Scripted Politics, Unscripted Damage

People often ask who writes Rahul Gandhi’s speeches. The stock answer: elite aides from Harvard and Oxford. But speechwriters are universal—from the Prime Minister downwards. The real question is judgment, not drafting. Rahul is widely seen as fearless, honest, and unbending before the government. Fair enough. But elections aren’t won on virtue alone. If they were, Communist parties—equally vocal and combative—would dominate everywhere. Winning demands political instinct and sustained grind, where Rahul still appears wanting.

His latest remark in Lucknow, at an event marking Kanshi Ram’s birth anniversary, underscores the problem. He said that if Jawaharlal Nehru hadn’t existed, Kanshi Ram would have become Chief Minister. The statement lands as both careless and condescending. Kanshi Ram didn’t need Congress patronage—he built his own movement and installed Mayawati as Uttar Pradesh CM multiple times through sheer political engineering. The remark also exposes a dated strategy: revive the Nehru-era Congress coalition of Dalits, Muslims, and Brahmins. That arithmetic no longer holds. In fact, it invites scrutiny—how many Dalit CMs did Congress actually produce?

The answer is uncomfortable. Despite governing widely, Congress elevated only a handful of Dalit chief ministers. The most recent was Charanjit Singh Channi in Punjab. Even the BJP has yet to appoint one. Nehru ruled for 17 years and produced just one Dalit CM. Against that record, invoking him to elevate Kanshi Ram rings hollow. For Rahul Gandhi, the takeaway is simple: less rhetoric, more rigour. Loose lines don’t just miss the mark—they damage credibility. Mallikarjun Kharge once thought of broaching the subject with Rahul Gandhi. But couldn't muster the courage, say sources.

From Parliament to ‘Tapori’: When Politics Goes Bambaiya

Indian politics briefly took a detour into Mumbai street slang after Kangana Ranaut decided to label Rahul Gandhi a “tapori”—a word more at home in Bollywood banter than parliamentary discourse. The remark raised eyebrows, not least because “tapori” doesn’t quite feature in standard political vocabulary. For the uninitiated, it loosely translates to a street-smart vagabond—part rogue, part charmer, and occasionally a cinematic hero. Think less policy paper, more Rangeela energy.

Predictably, the backlash was swift. The Congress ignored it. But Priyanka Chaturvedi stepped in with a pointed rebuttal, calling the comment “wrong” and gently reminding critics of Gandhi’s public positioning on women’s issues—while also noting the irony of targeting someone from a lineage known for its women leaders.

But the real curiosity is linguistic. “Tapori,” with its roots in Marathi street culture, once described flamboyant, mischievous young men loitering around Mumbai’s tapris. Over time, Bollywood polished the edges, turning the term into something almost aspirational—a badge of rebellious cool.

Which perhaps explains the confusion. Insult, caricature, or accidental compliment? In today’s politics, even street slang can briefly steal the national spotlight.

A Tale of Two Cases

The recent closure of the Sterling Biotech case involving the Sandesara brothers who fled the country in 2017 —Nitin and Chetan—has drawn attention to the fine balance between legal closure and public perception. The settlement, approved by the Supreme Court of India, allows for a payment of ₹5,100 crore as “full and final” resolution between the promoters, lending banks and investigative agencies. On paper, it brings closure. In practice, it raises questions. Sterling Biotech’s total dues were estimated at nearly ₹19,400 crore. Yet, roughly a quarter of that amount has been accepted to settle not just civil liabilities but also accompanying criminal proceedings. The allegations by agencies included complex financial irregularities and the use of 200 shell entities. The settlement, therefore, marks a legal endpoint, though not without discomfort within banking circles.

Contrast this with the case of Vijay Mallya. His liabilities, pegged at a little over ₹6,000 crore, stemmed largely from the collapse of his Kingfisher airline business rather than proven fraud at the time of default. Having left India in 2016, he was later declared a fugitive. Since then, recovery agencies claim to have realised over ₹14,000 crore through asset seizures—well above the principal. Yet, with interest accruals, his dues are still treated as unsettled, hovering near ₹20,000 crore.

Two cases, two outcomes—both legally sanctioned, yet starkly divergent. The contrast underlines the complexities of financial justice, where recovery, culpability and closure do not always align in ways that appear intuitive.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Reservation by Raffle? Parliament May Try Its Luck

Indian democracy has tried many innovations, but the latest idea doing the rounds in Delhi could easily pass for political satire: deciding women’s reserved seats in the Lok Sabha by lottery. Yes, a lottery. Not the kind that changes your life overnight, but one that could determine which parliamentary constituencies out of 543 will be reserved for women when the 33 per cent quota possibly kicks in 2029.

The discussion stems from a practical problem. The landmark Nari Shakti Vandan Act, passed with great fanfare in 2023, says the reservation will come into force only after the census and the delimitation of constituencies. The census process has finally been notified and, if schedules hold, the data may emerge by late 2027. Once the census numbers are out, a Delimitation Commission will have to redraw constituency boundaries which will take another two years if not more. The political dilemma is how to implement women’s reservation before the 2029 election without waiting for delimitation to finish.

Enter the lottery idea. If delimitation is delayed, one option being discussed is to temporarily delink the reservation from the boundary exercise and allocate the required constituencies through a draw of lots. The proposal is still in the realm of speculation. Opposition parties have already suggested separating reservation from the census–delimitation cycle. Meanwhile, signals of a “significant bill” have come from Kiren Rijiju, though details remain under wraps. If the idea gains traction, India’s electoral politics could soon face a curious spectacle—where the path to Parliament may depend not just on campaigning, alliances and strategy, but also on the luck of the draw.

‘Rarest of the Rare’: The Three-Minute Video Saga

The detention of climate activist Sonam Wangchuk under the National Security Act may well enter legal folklore as a “rarest of the rare” episode — not because the law was invoked, but because a three-minute video began to unravel the government’s case. The drama unfolded in the Supreme Court when the bench of Justices Aravind Kumar and P. B. Varale began probing the basis of Wangchuk’s detention. At the heart of the case was his speech delivered during protests in Leh.

But the court noticed something odd. The government’s translation of Wangchuk’s speech ran for nearly seven to eight minutes. The original video, however, lasted barely three minutes. The bench was quick to flag the mismatch. “How can a three-minute speech have a seven-minute translation?” the judges asked, making it clear that they wanted the actual transcript rather than the government’s interpretation.

The turning point came when the court said it would watch the video itself. The Centre was asked to submit the footage cited in the detention order on a pen drive so the judges could verify the speech first-hand. That single decision changed the complexion of the case. The government began seeking adjournments. At one stage, the hearing was deferred after the law officer informed the bench that Tushar Mehta was unwell and needed time to respond.

But before the judges could actually sit down to watch the video, the Centre quietly revoked the detention order. And that is what makes the episode “rarest of the rare”, legal luminaries say. A preventive-detention case that began collapsing the moment the court insisted on seeing the three-minute video behind the seven-minute translation.

Erasing Lutyens from Delhi!

The transformation of India’s power corridor may be heading for its boldest phase yet. After unveiling the new Parliament House and pushing ahead with a vast executive complex, the government is now looking at a sweeping redesign of the entire Central Vista and large parts of Lutyens’ Delhi.

At the heart of the plan is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambition to modernize the core of the capital. The next target is to gradually move all departments into modern integrated multi-storied complexes that can accommodate thousands of officials under one roof and even VIP bungalows. The ripple effects could extend well beyond government offices. Several colonial-era bungalow clusters across Lutyens’ Delhi are now under scrutiny. Hundreds of Houses around the Race Course Road and area in Lutyens Delhi have reportedly received eviction notices as authorities explore building multi-storeyed accommodation for MPs and even ministers.

The redevelopment footprint could also cover institutions such as the Press Club of India, the Indian Women’s Press Corps, key institutions and the elite Delhi Gymkhana Club. If the plan unfolds fully, the quiet bungalow capital designed by Edwin Lutyens may slowly give way to a dense, modern government district. Supporters call it long-overdue modernization. Critics have a sharper phrase for it: the steady erasing of Lutyens from Delhi. His bust has already gone.

Who After Harivansh? Deputy Chairman Race Gets Tricky

With Harivansh Narayan Singh set to retire as Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, a question has surfaced in the corridors of power: who will occupy the chair next? At one stage, there was speculation that the BJP was keen on sending him back for a third term. But Nitish Kumar’s party chose otherwise, and the BJP did little to intervene — a political fate not very different from what earlier befell R. C. P. Singh, once a minister in the Modi government.

By convention, the post could again go to the JD(U), but the party’s options appear limited. Among its Rajya Sabha MPs, Ram Nath Thakur, son of socialist icon Karpoori Thakur, is already serving as a minister. The party’s working president Sanjay Jha is reportedly uninterested, while others are not seen as strong contenders. This leaves the NDA looking beyond JD(U). Could the post go to an ally such as Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party, or perhaps to representatives of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena or Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party faction?

Earlier, the government had even explored offering the position to neutral, issue-based supporters like the BJD. That option now appears politically unviable. For the NDA leadership, what should have been a routine parliamentary appointment has quietly turned into a delicate exercise in coalition management. The Lok Sabha is already without a Deputy Speaker. Will the Rajya Sabha witness the same in the days to come!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Chabahar Damaged, Jolt to India’s Strategic Port

The escalating conflict involving Donald Trump’s United States, Israel and Iran is beginning to cast a long and troubling shadow over India’s strategic interests in West Asia. Beyond the immediate geopolitical tremors, New Delhi is now confronting tangible losses — the most serious being the reported damage and shutdown of the strategically vital Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran. According to informed sources, the port has been badly hit in the recent hostilities. The extent of the damage is still being assessed, but officials acknowledge that the losses could be substantial. The government is now dispatching a team to Iran to evaluate the situation and determine the impact on Indian investments and operations.

For India, Chabahar is far more than a commercial project. The port represents a critical strategic gateway allowing New Delhi to bypass Pakistan and access landlocked Afghanistan and the broader Central Asian region. The project has long been a cornerstone of India’s connectivity and geopolitical outreach to Eurasia. Ironically, the port had only recently secured a fragile diplomatic reprieve. In October last year, the United States had agreed to grant another sanctions waiver for Chabahar following intense negotiations involving Washington’s ambassador-designate Sergio Gor. Gor reportedly held marathon meetings with senior Indian officials, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, during a series of confidential discussions in New Delhi.

The implications are serious. India had signed a 10-year contract in May 2024 to operate the Shahid Beheshti terminal at Chabahar, a commitment central to its long-term regional strategy. With the port now damaged, Indian entities operating there face uncertainty and potential penalties, raising fresh concerns about the vulnerability of India’s overseas strategic assets in an increasingly volatile region.

The Importance of Being V. K. Saxena

In the latest gubernatorial reshuffle, the appointment of V. K. Saxena may not have grabbed headlines, but it carries significant strategic weight. Saxena has been named the fourth Lieutenant Governor of Ladakh, succeeding earlier appointees including R. K. Mathur, B. D. Mishra and Kavinder Gupta of UT which was created just six years ago.

The Centre appears to be banking on Saxena’s administrative experience at a sensitive time for the Himalayan Union Territory. Having earlier served as LG of Delhi, Saxena built a reputation for an assertive, hands-on style of governance. His tenure saw him play a key role in shaping the political and administrative landscape that eventually helped the BJP regain power in the capital in 2025.

Hand-picked by Narendra Modi, who had earlier noticed his work at the Khadi and Village Industries Commission, Saxena is now expected to focus on development and security in Ladakh. His appointment also comes amid persistent demands from groups such as the Leh Apex Body and the Kargil Democratic Alliance for statehood and Sixth Schedule protections — making his role both administrative and politically delicate.

TMC singing to its own tune in Assam & Kerala

In politics, what appears obvious is often deceptive. This is why a key question is being asked: Is Mamata Banerjee genuinely committed to stopping the BJP not just in West Bengal, but across the country? If one examines closely, a pattern is visible- weaken the Congress. In Goa, TMC's aggressive entry in 2022 ended up damaging the Congress far more than the BJP. TMC secured 5.2 per cent of the vote in 2022, while the Congress vote share fell by 4.9 per cent. The Aam Aadmi Party also polled around seven per cent, and together they decimated the Congress. It has never recovered in the state. In Meghalaya, Mamata Banerjee went a step further by engineering a split in the Congress and inducted most of its MLAs into TMC. A similar attempt was made in Jharkhand, though without success.

The same strategy now seems to be unfolding ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections in Assam and Kerala. TMC is preparing to contest alone in both states where a small vote share can prove decisive. In Assam, the Congress' Gaurav Gogoi even reached out to the TMC leadership. But his efforts went in vain. In Kerala, two-time Left-backed MLA P.V. Anvar has joined TMC, suggesting that Mamata’s entry there may weaken the Congress more than the BJP, even if it indirectly benefits the CPM. That appears not to concern her. The CPM is no longer a serious force in Bengal; the Congress, however, remains a rival nationally and the TMC may be a casual ally in the INDIA Bloc.

Why Khan Got the Boot!

March 5 turned into a day of high political drama in Bihar. It is perhaps first time that a state lost a Chief Minister and the Governor too. In a matter of hours, two powerful occupants of office — Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Governor Arif Mohammad Khan — were out of the picture. Kumar’s exit was hardly shocking, though his decision to move to the Rajya Sabha did raise eyebrows. The real surprise was the abrupt removal of Khan. Almost instantly, the Centre moved to install former Lieutenant General of the army, Syed Ata Hasnain as the new Governor.

The speed of the transition suggested a carefully scripted political move by the ruling BJP establishment to tighten its grip on the state’s political narrative. Ironically, Khan had been a trusted pick of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, first appointed Governor of Kerala in 2019 before being shifted to Bihar in December 2024. After more than six years in gubernatorial office — and once even whispered as a possible vice-presidential contender — his sudden exit remains unexplained, and politically intriguing.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP high command to pick 16 RS candidates shortly 

Nitin Nabin, Mithun Chakraborty, Pawan Singh, K Annamalai in the reckoning

RS biennial polls for 37 seats on March 16 

Harish Gupta

The BJP high command is likely to meet soon to field around 16 candidates for the 37 Rajya Sabha seats that will go to the polls on March 16 while its allies will contest another six. The prominent names under consideration are of party president Nitin Nabin from Bihar though there is some ambiguity over him. It is said that former BJP national presidents Amit Shah and Nitin Gadkari had continued as MLAs for a considerable period after becoming party chief.

The BJP is set to win two seats in Bihar out of 5 and JD(U) will win remaining two while one seat MGB may win with the help of AIMIM. But this is an open seat for now. A Bhoj puri singer Pawan singh is another name doing the rounds. He met the high command recently in Delhi. Former MP Rama Devi, Nand Kishore Yadav, Rakesh Tiwari, and Rituraj Sinha are also in the reckoning.

Some of the prominent names emerging are of former BJP Tamil Nadu president K Annamalai and BJP general secretary Vinod Tawade. Actor-politician Mithun Chakraborty, Manmohan Samal, BJP state president Odisha, instrumental in the party's win in the assembly polls and Abhinandan Panda, son of a veteran BJP leader Basant Panda are being considered from Odisha.

Former Congress leader Kiran Chaudhary, who joined the Bharatiya Janata Party two years ago, is hoping to get another term but there are murmurs that the party could instead pick a Jat leader for the upcoming vacancy in Haryana.

The BJP will gain at least five Rajya Sabha seats out of 37 seats. The BJP's 9 MPs are retiring (Maharashtra 2), Odisha (2), Assam (2) Haryana (2), Himachal (1) among the 37 MPs elections for which are being held.