by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta 

Why the PMO Is Upset

The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) is understood to be deeply dissatisfied with the manner in which two sensitive issues — the Aravalli Hills matter and the University Grants Commission (UGC) regulations controversy — were handled by the concerned departments. Sources indicate that a comprehensive performance review of several ministries and departments is currently underway. Insiders suggest this scrutiny is also one of the reasons behind the delay in organisational  and other changes.

The Modi government faced considerable political and legal heat over the Aravalli Hills case. In late 2025, the Supreme Court accepted a new “100-metre elevation” definition for the Aravalli range proposed by a committee led by the Environment Ministry. Critics argued that the new definition would leave more than 90 per cent of the ecologically fragile stretch open to mining. The ministry initially defended its position, but the SC later kept the definition in abeyance. Following the backlash and institutional embarrassment, the Centre directed states to impose a complete ban on fresh mining leases in the Aravallis.

What has raised eyebrows within the establishment is that the PMO has, in the past, intervened when proposals threatened environmentally sensitive regions. Despite that track record, this lapse occurred.

The second flash point was the UGC’s “Promotion of Equity in Higher Education Institutions Regulations, 2026.” Intended to address caste-based discrimination, the notification triggered controversy for appearing to focus primarily on reserved categories (SC, ST, OBC) while allegedly overlooking grievances from the general category. As protests spread nationwide, the ministry continued to defend the regulations, insisting they would not lead to misuse. When the PMO sought clarification, it was reportedly informed that the UGC — an autonomous body — had not consulted it before issuing the notification. The obvious follow-up question — why then was it defended? — reportedly drew no convincing response. The twin episodes have exposed gaps in coordination, political assessment and anticipatory governance — precisely the areas the PMO is now believed to be examining closely.

Delhi’s Empire and Punjab’s Maharaja

Captain Amarinder Singh once carried himself like Punjab’s last Maharaja — proud, commanding, answerable to no one. But politics, like royalty, changes once you enter a new court. His move from Congress to the BJP was supposed to be a graceful retirement plan: a Governor’s chair, a ceremonial farewell, and perhaps a secure political landing spot for his family. Instead, the Maharaja discovered a harsher truth — in the BJP, you do not negotiate your future, you are assigned one.

Today, neither wife nor son holds an elected post. The Captain himself, no longer in active health or active politics, has become more symbol than player. When he recently hinted he could even leave the BJP because no senior leader listens to him, the message was loud: even Maharajas are not consulted in this empire. The Congress, sensing an opening, spoke of welcoming him back.

But hold your breath! Almost instantly came the ED notice under a lighter provision (FEMA) — to Amarinder and his son — over their foreign assets. The timing was not subtle. The family quickly clarified: no, they are not going anywhere. They are loyal soldiers of the BJP. And then, as if on cue, the officer issuing the notice was transferred. Silence returned. The Captain may have thought he joined the BJP for protection. But perhaps he has learned the deeper rule: once you are inside, your future is no longer yours to decide.

Double Landing in Gujarat: Nitin Meets Kejri's Ambition

Call it coincidence — or the quiet drumbeat of an early campaign season. As newly appointed BJP chief Nitin Nabin made his first high-profile visit to Gujarat, shadowed by Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, another political traveller touched down almost simultaneously: Arvind Kejriwal, accompanied by Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.

Nabin stayed three days. Kejriwal stayed two. But the subtext lasted longer. The BJP has ruled Gujarat for nearly three decades. Yet the real churn is not about power — it is about who occupies the opposition space. The AAP, which bagged 12.92% vote share in 2022, now smells blood. Internal projections claim it has surged to nearly 25%, overtaking a listless Congress and positioning itself as the principal challenger ahead of 2027.

Kejriwal’s pitch is blunt: push Congress to third place, turn Gujarat into a direct BJP-versus-AAP duel. Even a strong second-place finish in local body polls would redraw the state’s political map. For Congress, this is existential. For BJP, it is a reminder that the challenger may no longer wear the old colours.

The Reluctant Patriarch Who Knows Everything

Nitish Kumar insists he is no believer in dynasty. He invokes Karpoori Thakur like a moral shield — socialism over surname, principle over progeny. As long as he is active, he says, his son will remain outside politics. And yet, curiously, the marketing department seems to be working overtime. On cue, party leaders float Nishant’s name for organisational roles, Rajya Sabha prospects, even future leadership. The whispers are too coordinated to be accidental, too persistent to be spontaneous. But the Chief Minister maintains studied innocence — as if these are independent outbreaks of enthusiasm.

This is vintage Nitish: publicly austere, privately adaptive. He knows the optics of dynasty in Bihar’s politics are tricky. So the son does not “enter”; he is merely “encouraged.” The father does not “promote”; he merely “observes.”  The message is subtle: succession is not ambition — it is compulsion, even consensus.

And if the choreography looks suspiciously well-rehearsed, perhaps it is because the script was never meant to surprise the director. That's why Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh and Sanjay Jha are publicly batting for Nishant Kumar's entry in the Rajya Sabha or a key role in the party.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Congress may gain in RS biennial polls

4 MPs retiring, party may win 6 seats

Harish Gupta

If the BJP is improving its Rajya Sabha tally from 103 seats to 108-109 in the biennial polls scheduled for March 16, the Congress may also improve its numbers. Currently, the Congress has 25 Mps in the Rajya Sabha and its four members are retiring. If the party plays its cards well, it may gain two extra seats. The four party Mps retiring are Rajni Patil (Maharashtra) , Abhishek Singhvi (Telangana) and KTS Tulsi and Phulo Devi Netam (Chhattisgarh).

According to reports emanating from the AICC, given the current situation, Abhishek Manu Singhvi is sure to be renominated from Telangana. The Congress is also likely to get one seat in Chhattisgarh and the name of former Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is doing the rounds. The Congress may also get one seat each in Himachal Pradesh and Haryana. It is ruling Himachal and has 37 MLAs in Haryana and 31 votes are needed to win a seat.

The Congress may get a seat in Assam as well where it has 29 votes and needs the support of 32 MLAs to win the seat. If the CPM (1), AIUDF (16) and BPF (1) support, the Congress may gain a seat. However, Assam Chief Minister Hemanta Biswa Sarma has declared that the BJP will win all three seats.

The Congress may hope to get a seat in Odisha if an understanding is reached with Naveen Patnaik of the BJD. The BJD has 51 votes and a candidate needs 30 votes to win a seat. The Congress has 14 MLAs. The parties can put up a common candidate against the ruling BJP.

The Congress high command is hopeful of getting an extra seat in Telangana which the Chief Minister Reventh Reddy has assured. The UPA has 65 MLAs and may get the support of AIMIM (7 MLAs) and several rebel BRS MLAs.

The Congress has also urged the DMK in Tamil Nadu to spare a RS seat since the Chief Minister M K Stalin is not sharing power with it though prospects are bleak.

(separate Box)

Former Union Minister Anand Sharma & Bhanwar Jitendra Singh, film actor Raj Babbar, Pawan Khera, Sachin Rao, Krishna Allavaru, Meenakshi Natrajan, Supriya Shrinate and others eyeing RS seats.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Experts Question Caste Census with an Escape Clause?

No "Dedicated" column for OBCs like SCs/STs

Harish Gupta

Population experts are baffled by the government's notification where citizens will be answering 33 questions during the first phase of the Census, starting April 1. The enumerators will ask whether the head of the household belongs to the Scheduled Caste, the Scheduled Tribe or other communities. 

Experts say that individuals have been given the option to disclose their caste or category rather than giving OBCs (Other Backward Classes) a "dedicated column" as in the case of Scs and Sts. Of course, an individual can certainly mention his caste in the “Third column”. But this column is for all castes including the Upper, OBC or others.

Enumerators will certainly mention the caste as told to them by the individuals. But there is no specific instruction/column for OBCs. Experts point out that in the absence of this provision, counting OBCs from the third column will be an impossible task.

The puzzle is sharper because the government has, after much delay, agreed to conduct India’s first caste-based census since 1931. The move came after sustained pressure from OBC groups, who argue that they constitute over 52 per cent of the population and therefore deserve a proportionate share in state resources and welfare benefits.

When contacted, the government sources declined to comment but informally  agreed that there is no consolidation for OBCs column, unlike the consolidation that continues for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST).

For the first time, the Census will also allow self-enumeration through digital means, with specific codes provided for non-disclosure. The critics warn that built-in escape routes could undermine the very objective of the exercise.

Ever since OBCs were granted reservations in jobs and educational institutions in the 1990s, there has been a persistent demand for a nationwide caste census. Some states, including Bihar and Haryana, attempted caste surveys, but most failed to reach logical conclusions due to political and administrative hurdles.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Why Delhi Is Betting on Ashwini Vaishnav

Ashwini Vaishnav is not the kind of minister who dominates television panels or daily headlines. He keeps a deliberately low profile, avoids the media glare, and operates with the demeanour of a technocrat rather than a political showman. Yet, in Narendra Modi’s government, his importance far outweighs his visibility.

Vaishnav’s strength lies in a rare convergence of skills. A former IAS officer with an engineering degree from IIT Kanpur and an MBA from Wharton, he embodies the Modi government’s preferred model of leadership—technically grounded, administratively sharp, and relentlessly execution-focused. As the minister handling Railways, Electronics and IT, he is seen as a hands-on administrator who understands both policy design and the nuts and bolts of delivery.

He has also cultivated a reputation for accessibility. Unlike many senior ministers, Vaishnav uses social media proactively, responding to public grievances and tracking complaints in real time. Beyond this, he holds the crucial Information and Broadcasting portfolio, placing him at the heart of the government’s sensitive media management operations, including coordination with the PMO. Reflecting this expanded role, a wing of the government’s top media team now functions from Rail Bhawan itself—an unusual but telling institutional coordination.

It is against this backdrop that his quiet arrival in Washington a few days ago assumes significance. Officially, the visit focused on critical minerals. Politically and economically, it was about much more. Vaishnav does not hold a trade or mining portfolio. His presence signalled something else: that he was acting as the Prime Minister’s economic emissary.

By sending a minister who combines proximity to Modi with direct control over industrial execution, New Delhi signalled seriousness to Washington. This was not exploratory diplomacy, but negotiation with intent. While External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar continues to frame the strategic narrative and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal guards the trade perimeter, the center of gravity has clearly shifted. He has also been sent to Davos at the World Economic Forum meet.  The conversation has moved from diplomacy to deployability. Implementers are now at the forefront—and in that transition, Ashwini Vaishnav has emerged as Modi's muscat.

Ankita Bhandari case: BJP's Self-Inflicted Crisis

The BJP has perfected the art of marketing a political narrative putting rivals to lick the dust in states after states. Most of the Chief Ministers of the BJP-ruled states are having a comfortable time unless the high command decides to show them the door. For a while, everything seemed to be moving smoothly for the Pushkar Singh Dhami government in Uttarakhand. His standing was high with the top leadership of both the RSS and the BJP in terms of delivery and political management. But chinks in his armory surfaced in the murder of Ankita Bhandari case.

More than three years after this hotel receptionist was killed – and seven months after the accused in the case were convicted – fresh allegations surfaced with a senior BJP leader being accused of being involved in it. The fresh outrage forced the Chief Minister to visit Ankita Bhandari's parents and order a CBI probe to identify the alleged “VIP” involved in her murder.

This came as a shot in arm to the Congress and put the BJP on a weak wicket. The reason lay not in the investigation itself but in a series of avoidable missteps by BJP leaders that steadily muddied the narrative. If a CBI inquiry was inevitable to establish the identity of the VIP, the question arises as to why the same was not done earlier. The trigger, perhaps, was

when State BJP president Mahendra Bhatt branded whistle blower in the case a “Congress puppet.” The whistle blower, a North East student claimed that a person referred to as “G” was exerting pressure on Ankita Bhandari through Pulkit Arya for “special services,” and that her refusal led to her murder. Following these claims, the name of a senior BJP leader began circulating, forcing him to seek judicial intervention.

What’s in a Name? BJP’s Quiet Battle Over New Chief

The party’s top brass has quietly issued an internal advisory: senior leaders are requested—the word is doing heavy lifting here—to address the new chief strictly as Adhyakshji. Not Bhaiyyaji, not Nitin babu, and certainly not the dangerously affectionate “Arre Nitin!” The problem is age. Nabin is younger than almost everyone who matters, and Bihar BJP is populated by veterans who have been calling each other bhai since the Mandal era. Old habits, like old leaders, refuse to retire.

There is genuine anxiety in Delhi that a casual bhaiyyaji at a public meeting could puncture the carefully constructed authority of the new president. Two BJP Chief Ministers reportedly were heard calling him by the first name.  After all, respect in politics is often measured less by designation and more by how stiffly one folds their hands. For now, the circular stands. Whether Adhyakshji does is another matter entirely.

Why Congress Never Learns: TN Next

If there is one political lesson the Congress steadfastly refuses to absorb, it is the cost of indecision. The party dragged its feet on alliances in Bihar till the last moment and paid the price. Earlier, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa followed the same script—confusion and delayed decisions. Now, Tamil Nadu is beginning to look worryingly familiar.

The state unit is caught in a tug of war between the old guard and the Rahul Gandhi–aligned younger leadership. Veterans want to consolidate the alliance with the ruling DMK, arguing that survival in Tamil Nadu depends on staying firmly within the Dravidian fold. The younger leaders—Manickam Tagore and Jothimani —want the Congress to keep its options open by exploring a possible understanding with actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Rahul Gandhi’s recent Tamil Nadu visit was expected to bring clarity. Instead, it deepened the ambiguity. His public criticism of the Censor Board over the denial of a Pongal release to Vijay’s film Jana Nayagan was read as a political signal, unsettling the DMK while energising the pro-TVK camp. For now, Rahul Gandhi appears to be reassuring the DMK even as he encourages his younger colleagues to keep the Vijay option alive—as leverage for more seats and power-sharing. It is a familiar Congress habit: hedge everywhere, decide nowhere, and hope time resolves contradictions. History suggests it rarely does.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

One Party, Two Bosses? The Perils of Reuniting the NCP

Speculation over a re-union of the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party — one led by Sharad Pawar and the other by his nephew Ajit Pawar — has gathered pace, making it one of Maharashtra’s most closely watched political developments. What started as a limited tactical understanding for a municipal election in Pimpri-Chinchwad has snowballed into serious talk of a formal merger, surprising even seasoned observers of Pawar politics.

The broad outline being discussed appears deceptively simple: Sharad Pawar would reclaim the position of supreme leader of a reunited NCP, while Ajit Pawar would continue as the undisputed power center in Maharashtra’s day-to-day politics and governance. On paper, it seems like a neat division of authority — the patriarch as national face and moral anchor, the nephew as the operational strongman.

But this formula is fraught with risk. Ajit Pawar is no longer the rebellious lieutenant he once was. After splitting the party, aligning with the BJP and securing the deputy chief minister’s post, he has tasted power independently, built his own network and demonstrated electoral and administrative clout. In the process, he has proved his worth not just as a survivor, but as a boss in his own right.

That raises the central question haunting merger talks: why would Ajit Pawar willingly return to a subordinate role under Sharad Pawar, especially when he commands legislators, resources and leverage? A re-union may help consolidate the NCP vote base and reduce fragmentation, but it also risks reopening old fault lines over authority, succession and control. For Sharad Pawar, the merger is about legacy. For Ajit Pawar, it is about power and autonomy. Reconciling the two may prove far more complicated than stitching together a pre-poll alliance.

How ED Blinked as Mamata Seized the Moment

Why did central officers not resist Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee when she arrived at the premises of I-PAC, questioned the raid, and reportedly walked away with files and material? And why did the agency appear to yield ground at the very moment its authority was being challenged?

One explanation doing the rounds in political and bureaucratic circles is institutional caution bordering on strategic retreat. Any attempt by ED officers to physically stop a sitting chief minister could have spiraled instantly—legally, politically and on the streets. The optics of central officers restraining Banerjee would have handed her a dramatic visual narrative of federal overreach, potentially triggering unrest in Kolkata and beyond.

There is also speculation that officers on the ground sought directions from senior officials in Delhi and were advised to back off.  The Delhi bosses sought the advice of their political masters too. Whether or not such instructions were explicitly given or consulted, could be anybody's guess. However, former bureaucrats say the “default rule” in such high-voltage situations is to avoid confrontation with constitutional authorities and let the legal process catch up later. As one former home secretary remarked privately, “You don’t win battles like this with muscle. You win them with paper and patience.”

In effect, the ED’s non-resistance reflects a larger strategic dilemma: enforcing the law without feeding a political narrative designed for confrontation. By stepping back, the agency may have preserved legal ground—but at the cost of appearing politically overawed. For Mamata Banerjee, that perception itself may have been the real prize. A final word will, however, come from the judiciary on the issue.

Fear of the Women’s Vote: BJP’s Bengal Dilemma

Just before a crucial Assembly election in Bihar, the Nitish Kumar government had announced a ₹10,000 payout to women under the Chief Minister’s Employment Scheme. The move dramatically altered the state’s political landscape. Around the same time, a video went viral from Bihar’s Belaganj seat in which a senior BJP leader was heard telling a journalist that women would not dare step out of their homes to vote for Nitish Kumar—and that any woman who did so would face consequences. The video caused serious embarrassment to the BJP, but it also revealed a deeper truth: women voters in Bihar had cut across caste lines to back Nitish Kumar.

A strikingly similar situation is now unfolding in West Bengal. A statement by BJP leader and state committee member Kalyan Sen Gupta has gone viral, in which he claims that women will vote for Mamata Banerjee because they benefit from the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme, and therefore women should be confined to their homes on polling day. The remark exposes not confidence, but fear within the BJP.

Mamata Banerjee’s government has been running the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme since 2021, under which women receive direct monthly cash transfers. Women from SC and ST communities get ₹1,200 per month, while others receive ₹1,000. Much like schemes such as Ladli Behna or Maiya Samman in other states, the program has had a deep political impact. In a state where feminine power and goddess worship are culturally embedded, the BJP often finds itself at a disadvantage.

Beyond Lakshmir Bhandar, the Trinamool Congress government runs several women-centric welfare and empowerment schemes. This has heightened BJP’s anxiety that women voters may rise above caste and religious identities to vote decisively for Mamata Banerjee’s party—reshaping Bengal’s political battle once again.

Rekha Gupta’s ‘History Lessons’

Social media is having a field day over Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta’s growing collection of “slips of the tongue”—though many are now asking whether these are slips at all, or something more fundamental. The trouble began when Gupta managed to misfire on not one but two of India’s tallest freedom fighters: Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose and Bhagat Singh, triggering frantic damage control by BJP colleagues.

During the winter session of the Delhi Assembly, Gupta recalled the martyrdom of Bhagat Singh, Sukhdev and Rajguru, but said Bhagat Singh hurled a bomb to awaken a “deaf Congress government.” History, unfortunately, records that it was the British Raj—not the Congress—that executed Bhagat Singh. Days earlier, while invoking Netaji, Gupta referred to him as “Netaji Subhas Chandra Palace,” inadvertently renaming a revolutionary icon after a popular Pitampura marketplace known as NSP.

The list of gaffes has since grown: garbage hills being coaxed to leave “like brothers,” AQI described as “temperature,” and repeated historical misfires. Gupta has responded by introducing a gender angle, claiming the Opposition mocks her because it “cannot tolerate a woman CM at work.”

That argument, however, sits awkwardly in a city that has already seen three women chief ministers—without similar meme-festivals. Satire thrives not on gender, but on content. And in politics, as in history, the first rule is simple: facts matter. Especially when invoking martyrs who no longer have the luxury of correcting you.