by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

The Lone Warrior: Yogi

Yogi Adityanath’s detractors in the BJP may have hoped to clip his wings ahead of next year’s Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. Denying him a free hand in ticket distribution was seen in some quarters as a way of keeping the chief minister in check. But the exercise has a larger question hanging over it: can the BJP afford to marginalise the man who has become the face of its politics in UP?

Yogi appears determined not to get drawn into a power struggle over tickets. In the recent Rajya Sabha nominations, contrary to popular perception, he did not walk into the high command’s room with a list of preferred candidates for the eight seats the BJP was expected to win. Instead, he reportedly told the central leadership to choose whomever it considered suitable. The broad approach was to field fresh faces. Only later, after being persuaded, did Yogi suggest a couple of names.

The episode offers a glimpse into his political style. This is hardly the first time questions have been raised about his independent stature within the party. Since emerging as a leader in his own right in 2017, Yogi has had to navigate the competing pulls of the central leadership, the state organisation and the RSS. The Sangh’s support for him has its own nuances, but his place in the BJP’s UP calculations remains difficult to ignore.

His appeal rests on a combination of an uncompromising law-and-order image, a staunch Hindutva profile and a reputation for personal probity among his supporters. For the BJP, the challenge is to balance organisational control with the political authority Yogi has built. The ticket battle, therefore, may be less about who gets to choose candidates than about a bigger question: how much room can the BJP give its lone warrior without appearing threatened by his growing stature?

Murmu Waits for Rahul’s Evidence

A fortnight has passed, but Rahul Gandhi’s promised evidence of “vote chori” remains missing from the political radar. After meeting President Droupadi Murmu, Rahul said she had asked the Opposition to provide proof of its allegations against the Election Commission. He promised that the evidence would follow. Yet the Opposition has given no indication of when it plans to return to Rashtrapati Bhavan. The delay raises an obvious question: if the allegations were so serious, why was the evidence not ready when they were made?

The episode began when opposition MPs assembled in Parliament’s Central Hall before meeting the President. After the meeting, Rahul also suggested that the President had acknowledged the Opposition’s concerns. However, receiving a memorandum is not the same as endorsing its allegations.

Is the Opposition still gathering evidence, or was the promise made before the supporting material was ready?

The questions are pertinent because Rahul and other opposition leaders have leveled serious allegations of “vote chori” against the Election Commission. Such charges demand evidence, not merely political assertions. Maybe, Team Rahul is busy gathering pieces from states which are falling in bits with many state CEOs issuing fresh orders to change procedures and rules. The ball is now in the Opposition’s court: when will Rahul produce the evidence he promised?

Why Congress Keeps Raihan at Arm’s Length

Is the Congress leadership wary of a premature political spotlight on Raihan Vadra? The controversy over Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s son’s photography exhibition has exposed an intriguing dilemma for the party: how to defend him without fueling  speculation about his political future. Raihan’s photographs documenting youth protests were removed from a Rajasthan government-run venue in Delhi, triggering protests from Priyanka and other Congress leaders. Yet the party’s initial response appeared carefully calibrated, with senior party leader Pawan Khera stressing that Raihan was an individual in his own right and all questions were directed to him.

The Youth Congress dropped its plans to hold Raihan's exhibits on streets of Lutyens' Delhi at the last minute.

The hesitation raises a larger question. With Rahul Gandhi at the centre of the Congress leadership, does the party want to avoid any suggestion that another member of the Gandhi family is being prepared for a future role? Talk of Raihan eventually succeeding Rahul remains speculation, not an established succession plan. For now, Raihan insists he is an artist, not a politician. The Congress, meanwhile, faces a delicate balancing act: defending a family member without turning an art controversy into a debate about the dynasty’s next generation.

BJP High Command’s Swift Retreat

The BJP high command appears to be in damage-control mode after controversies involving Punjabi singers Daler Mehndi in Uttarakhand and Diljit Dosanjh in Delhi threatened to snowball into political liabilities.

With Punjab and Uttarakhand heading towards Assembly elections in 2027, prolonged friction with popular Punjabi cultural icons could give the Opposition an opportunity to accuse the BJP of disregarding Punjabi and Sikh sentiments. The leadership seems keen to prevent local controversies from becoming larger political battles.

The Uttarakhand row erupted when Cabinet Minister Subodh Uniyal allegedly humiliated Daler Mehndi at a public event by accusing him of being intoxicated. His brother, Mika Singh, strongly countered the allegation, saying Daler did not drink and was recovering from major surgery. Celebrities, including Anupam Kher, Kapil Sharma and Badshah, criticised the minister’s conduct.

Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami subsequently spoke to Daler about his health and expressed regret over the episode, helping contain the backlash. Delhi witnessed a separate controversy when permission for Diljit Dosanjh’s musical evening at Nehru Stadium was reportedly withdrawn at the last minute on security grounds, despite an earlier clearance.

The high command intervened in both the cases. For the BJP high command, the lesson is clear: it would rather contain the damage than let the Opposition set the narrative and ready to bend backward in no time.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly On the Wall

Harish Gupta

Amit Shah’s Big-Bang Return

Just a few weeks ago, the political chatter was all about one question: Where was Amit Shah? The Home Minister’s visible political activity had seemingly gone quiet. When the crowds that descended on Jantar Mantar on July 20 and the ensuing ruckus during the march towards Parliament had dented Delhi police's image under the Union Home Ministry. If Amit Shah was busy pulling strings behind the scenes, few outside the inner circle appeared to know.

But suddenly, the shutters are up. Amit Shah showed his mettle when the CJP protesters returned to the Capital a second time on October 10. The message was blunt: not a soul should be allowed to reach Jantar Mantar, come what may. The heavy hand with a soft touch was for all to see.

In between, Shah is seen everywhere — Delhi, Noida, UP, Maharashtra, Punjab and across the country. He is not merely attending routine government functions, he is increasingly occupying the central political space. His big-bang return came with his two-day Maharashtra visit last month, followed by Modi’s birthday celebrations in Vadnagar on September 17. His political footprint has only grown. In Delhi, he inaugurated several projects and the Delhi government advertisement was quite revealing. A few photographs showed Shah walking onto the newly opened road, waved to the crowds and soaked up the moment.

Noida followed. Shah inaugurated the Uttar Pradesh International Trade Show, praised Yogi Adityanath and this was particularly notable amid speculation about Shah’s rumoured distance from UP and reports of friction with the CM. On September 30, Shah landed in Jalandhar for a mega BJP rally and visited multiple states including Meghalaya, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and later West Bengal.

Insiders say that the journey has just begun and the itinerary is full. Perhaps Shah is filling the void as the new BJP chief Nitin Nabin is unable to make an impact.

BJP's Hidden Punjab Card

It's a mixed bag for the BJP in the Assembly polls due in five states early next year if information reaches out to the ruling dispensation. Internal party surveys, pollsters and other sources have conveyed that the BJP is comfortable in UP, Manipur and Goa. But it is facing rough weather in Uttarakhand due to a variety of reasons including the appointment of  former BJP general secretary Dushyant Gautam as Governor. The BJP is far behind in Punjab if it contests alone in Punjab. It is only after such a feedback from all sources in Punjab that the BJP is now toying with the idea of joining hands with the SAD in Punjab. There are reports that SAD leader Harsimrat Kaur may return to the NDA and Modi Cabinet soon. It is perhaps due to these reports that Amit Shah did not declare in Jalandhar on September 30 rally that the BJP will contest all 117 Assembly seats.

An insider present at a BJP leaders meeting with Amit Shah said that the message from the party was loud and clear, “Congress ki Sarkar Banegi Nahin Aur AAP Ki Banane Nahin Denge. BJP Ko Jamin Par Kaam karna Hai.” (Congress won't be able to form the government. We won't allow the AAP to form a government and you people work on the ground).

When Shivraj Singh Sat on a Dharna

The PMO is perplexed and the BJP high command is keeping its fingers crossed as the simmering differences between Union Agriculture & Rural Development Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the BJP's Madhya Pradesh government headed by Mohan Yadav, spilled into the open. The tensions had been building for some time but came into public domain when Chouhan complained to the BJP’s general secretary (organisation, MP), Chandrashekhar, at a review meeting that district collectors were not answering his phone calls. Chandrashekhar reportedly counseled the leaders and asked them to end factionalism within three months.

But the situation subsequently got complicated when Mohan Yadav raised questions about the Ladli Behna scheme, a flagship initiative launched by Shivraj. Yadav pointed to its heavy expenditure and strain on the state’s finances. The differences took a dramatic turn when Chouhan sat on a dharna in his former constituency, Budhni, protesting against the demolition of the homes of around a dozen Adivasi families by the Forest Department. Calling the action “height of oppression” by the officials (Not by the State or the CM).

This was the first time a Union Cabinet Minister sat on a dharna against his own state government. Though former Chief Minister Madan Lal Khurana had also done it when he staged a dharna against his own government after being removed from office in the Vajpayee era. But it was a first in the NDA 2.0. The issue was resolved as Mohan Yadav telephoned Chouhan and both are smiling nowadays. But.....

Mayawati's BSP On The Brink

The BSP is staring at parliamentary extinction. It drew a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and its lone Rajya Sabha MP, Ramji Gautam, is set to retire in November. With no MLA left in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly as its lone MLA, Uma Shankar Singh, died recently, the party has virtually no route back to the Upper House. The bigger battle comes in March 2027, when UP votes again. But the BSP entered the electoral arena badly weakened—and increasingly reduced to a Mayawati family affair. The repeated expulsion and readmission of her nephews and niece has only added to the perception of a party in disarray.

The decline is extraordinary. At its 2007 peak, the BSP was not merely a Dalit party; it was a national political disruptor. Mayawati’s full majority in UP transformed her into a symbol of social-justice politics that could capture power, not merely protest. By 2009, the BSP had become India’s third-largest party by vote share, winning 21 Lok Sabha seats. Since then, the slide has been relentless. In 2024, its UP vote share crashed to 9.39%, down from 19.43% in 2019, while nationally it managed just 2.07% and zero seats.

The Jatav core largely survives. But without alliances, votes are no longer translating into seats. The BSP’s crisis is no longer about power. It is about survival.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Modi has a political Riddle

Prime Minister Narendra Modi may soon have a riddle in hand when his Council of Ministers will be without representation from at least three minority communities; Muslims, Christians and the Sikhs.

The Muslim representation disappeared long ago when Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi was denied a Rajya sabha ticket and M.J. Akbar  resigned amid the #MeToo controversy. Another popular Muslim leader Syed Shahnawaz Hussain was not inducted into the Cabinet by Modi as he lost Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and shifted to state politics. 

The Christian representation vanished when Rajya Sabha term was denied to Minister of State George Kurian in April this year and he had to quit. He was the Modi government’s only Christian Minister after K.J. Alphons, Minister of Tourism, was dropped.

The issue of Sikh representation in the Modi government is hotly debated these days as the Punjab polls are round the corner. Though Hardeep Singh Puri continues to be a key Cabinet Minister in the Modi government, he has not been a given Rajya sabha term and will retire on November 25. Puri is not the first Sikh minister to face such a situation. Earlier, Ravneet Singh Bittu failed to get Rajya Sabha renomination and had to quit as Minister of State.

Technically, Puri can continue as a minister for another six months after his Rajya Sabha term ends or at least until the Punjab Assembly polls. But the sword of uncertainty continues to hang over the head on the issue.

RSS changes the game in Punjab

The RSS is trying something different in Punjab. Instead of relying primarily on its traditional shakha network, it is quietly building a wider social footprint and has chosen an unlikely vehicle to do so: sports.

The strategy is simple but potentially significant. Rather than concentrating only on opening more shakhas, the RSS is encouraging the formation of sports clubs, organising local tournaments and sporting competitions and adding cultural activities to its outreach program. The objective is to enter communities through something Punjab is passionate about—sport—and build relationships at the grassroots. In political terms, the idea is even more interesting: build the social network first, let politics follow.

The timing has added significance. While addressing a rally in Jalandhar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted sports as a “new economy” for Punjab, referring to the state's sports universities, its sports-goods manufacturing base and the large number of champions it has produced. But the RSS appears to have been working on this terrain well before sports became part of the political conversation.

For the BJP, Punjab has never been an easy state to penetrate independently. Its decades-long alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal left the BJP largely playing the role of junior partner, with its organisational strength concentrated in traditional urban pockets. That equation is changing. The party needs something it has historically lacked—a broad, independent grassroots network.

That is where the RSS's new Punjab experiment could prove useful. The tournaments, sports clubs and cultural programs may not look political. The BJP may be counting the seats. The RSS is counting the connections.

Rahul Gandhi follows Uncle!

Rahul Gandhi appears to have discovered a new political weapon: the streets. Forget the old formula of predictable protests. He now wants the cadre to think on their feet, take the fight to the streets and create visuals that travel faster than political speeches on social media.

The emerging playbook is built around sudden marches, impromptu sit-ins, barricade-jumping and high-decibel confrontations with the police. The objective is clear: seize the optics, command the news cycle and catch the administration off guard. In the age of reels and Gen-Z politics, a dramatic 30-second video can sometimes attract more attention than a three-hour rally.

Recent protests have offered glimpses of this approach, from Youth Congress workers staging a shirtless demonstration at the global AI Summit to Opposition MPs’ marches and sit-ins over the demand for Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar’s removal. When police block one route, another protest site can suddenly emerge.

Rahul’s own street activism has gathered momentum. His dharna outside the Prime Minister’s residence over the NEET paper-leak controversy, followed by confrontations during the October protests in Delhi, has reinforced the message that the Congress must be seen fighting, not merely issuing statements.

Party insiders say Rahul has asked K.C. Venugopal to ensure MPs turn up for street protests, with explanations sought from absentees. Perhaps he is drawing a leaf out of the old book of late Sanjay Gandhi who was a street fighter and bounced back ro power in 1980.

The Nathwani Mystery

The Samajwadi Party’s decision to bring Dhanraj Nathwani in the Rajya Sabha has thrown up a political puzzle that refuses to go away: what prompted Akhilesh Yadav to choose a corporate heavyweight with deep links to a corporate house. The Nathwanis have created a history of sorts as the father-son duo are now members of the same House. Dhanraj is the son of Parimal Nathwani who is closely associated with the same corporate house and has recently returned to the Rajya Sabha from Jharkhand with the backing of the BJP-led NDA. The elder Nathwani’s long association with the corporate group and his political connections across party lines have made the family’s latest parliamentary move particularly intriguing.

Is Akhilesh signalling a broader political strategy that goes beyond the party’s traditional ideological pitch? Or does the choice reflect calculations that remain hidden from public view? For now, the central mystery remains: what does Akhilesh see in Dhanraj Nathwani that made him the party’s choice?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Companies sold for a song under new Law 

Realization comes down from 55% to 20% in 2026

1419 companies gone for Rs 4.24 lakh crores

Harish Gupta

Even as the government claimed that as much as Rs 4.24 lakh crores have been realised to the creditors under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code,2016 (IBC), it emerged that the realisation has been falling year after year.

If the realisation was 54% in 2017-2018 and 55% next year, it fell to as low as 20% during the 2025-26 financial year.

During the last nine years, a total of 1,419 cases have yielded resolution plans under Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. These cases have led to a realisation of Rs. 4.24 lakh crore to the creditors.

The government also claimed that the IBC has enhanced the ease of doing business by providing a time bound and transparent mechanism for resolving insolvency, improving investor confidence and credit availability.

As per the RBI’s Financial Stability Report of June 2026, the Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio of Scheduled Commercial Banks has declined from its peak of 11.2% in March 2018 to a low of 1.8% in March 2026.

However, the government asserted that the IBC is a legal framework for insolvency resolution and is market driven and recoveries by creditors reflect the underlying asset quality and the commercial viability of the distressed enterprise. The term “haircut” has not been defined or used in IBC.

The agony is that a total of 14,813 cases are pending as on March 31, 2026 before the NCLT for resolution. The government conceded it in Parliament and gave out the information that realisation in 2025-26 was as low as 20%.

Period          Amount (cr)            Realisation as %

2017-2018    3807                        54%

2018-2019    1,07,321                  55%

2019-2020    39,043                      27%

2020-2021   27,102                       27%

2021-2022     46,198                     24%
2022-2023    54,125                      39%
2023-2024     44,736                     28%
2024-2025    54,604                      37%
2025-2026  42,003                        20%

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Why S Jaishankar Is Flying High

It may sound strange, but it is true. Ever since Narendra Modi took over as Prime Minister, the Ministry of External Affairs has occupied a somewhat higher pedestal than most other ministries. Modi has routinely held high-level review meetings with ministers and secretaries of various ministries, grilling them on performance, targets and timelines. The MEA, however, has largely remained outside this collective review arena.

This is not because foreign policy is any less important. Quite the contrary. It reflects the Prime Minister’s preference for maintaining a more direct and closely held oversight of external affairs.

Foreign policy is executed on a day-to-day basis by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and career diplomats, including Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. But Modi himself keeps a close watch through formal mechanisms as well as direct communication.

Those familiar with the functioning of the government say Modi and Jaishankar remain in frequent touch, often speaking several times a day on matters of immediate concern. The Foreign Secretary is also regularly brought into the loop.

The MEA does, of course, come under sharper scrutiny when issues involving infrastructure, connectivity and national security arise. Take Chabahar Port. While the Ports and Shipping Ministry handles the operational side, negotiations and strategic engagement with Iran inevitably bring the MEA into the picture.

Secondly, the MEA is a crucial component of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by Modi, which deals with major strategic, foreign-policy and national-security issues.

Jaishankar’s importance, therefore, goes beyond the conventional role of an External Affairs Minister. He is virtually a 24x7 minister, with one foot in Delhi and the other constantly on foreign soil.

A former diplomat, Jaishankar is tough, straight-talking and distinctly no-nonsense. He may have come from the diplomatic establishment, but he is hardly restrained when plain speaking is required. That combination of professional expertise, political confidence and the Prime Minister’s evident trust explains why S Jaishankar continues to fly high.

Amit Shah’s Big-Bang Return

Just a few weeks ago, the political chatter was all about one question: Where was Amit Shah? The Home Minister’s visible political activity had seemingly gone quiet. If he was busy pulling strings behind the scenes, few outside the inner circle appeared to know. But suddenly, the shutters are up and Shah is everywhere — Delhi, Noida, UP, Maharashtra, Punjab and all over the country. And he is not merely attending routine government functions. Shah is increasingly occupying the central political space.

His big-bang return came with his two-day Maharashtra visit last month, followed by a relentless round of public engagements. After Modi’s birthday celebrations in Vadnagar on September 17, Shah’s political footprint has only grown.

In Delhi, he inaugurated projects worth over ₹1,900 crore, including the Barapullah Road project linking eastern and southern Delhi with Noida. The Delhi government advertisement was quite revealing too. A few photographs showed Shah walking onto the newly opened road, waved to the crowds and soaked up the moment.

Noida followed. Shah inaugurated the Uttar Pradesh International Trade Show, praised Yogi Adityanath and confidently spoke of victory in the next election. This was particularly notable after weeks of speculation about Shah’s rumoured distance from UP and reports of friction with the Chief Minister.

Then came Punjab. On September 30, Shah landed in Jalandhar for a major BJP rally, with the party claiming a turnout of one lakh people. The Lovely Professional University controversy took some shine off the event, but Shah’s presence itself carried a message. Modi had visited the region only days earlier. Shah visited multiple states including Meghalaya, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh and the itinerary is full for the month.

Insiders say that the journey has just begun. Shah is not just back on the political stage but occupying the centre stage. Shah's hectic programs show that he is filling the void as the new BJP chief Nitin Nabin is unable to make an impact and the party is lagging behind.

Why is Gyanesh smiling !

A comprehensive but "confidential dossier" about Chief Election Commissioner Gynanesh Kumar suddenly appeared from nowhere before the Congress top brass meeting in the Capital. It gave details of how the Kerala cadre IAS bureaucrat was involved in corrupt deals in the state and how he rode to the top post of the CEC. The irony was the state was ruled either by the Congress or the Left parties. But to the surprise of many, the state Chief Minister V D Satheesan came prepared at the Congress Working Committee with a note on the stint of Gyanesh Kumar in the state. Satheesan reeled out a list of Kumar’s questionable actions. He also gave details of his activities when he was District Magistrate of his district Ernakulam 20 years ago. Eyebrows were raised with many wondering silently why the Congress governments in the state didn't act against him.

But who could have named A K Antony who was the unquestioned king of the state in Congress. Gyanesh Kumar was brought as Joint Secretary, handling areas like Naval Systems and defense production to the Centre between 2007 to 2012. Antony was Defence Minister and it is said that he brought Gyanesh Kumar at the Centre when he was facing rough weather in the state. Now Keralam Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala has ordered a vigilance department probe against Gyanesh Kumar over a road project in which the state had suffered a loss and a Malaysian contractor committed suicide in 2006. Why the state woke up after 20 years? Congress needs to answer and more so Rahul Gandhi's political Guru – A K Antony whose son is in the BJP now.

RBI's “Politically Exposed Person”

Politicians may command crowds, win elections and wield considerable influence. But when they walk into a bank, the Reserve Bank of India has a rather different lens: “Politically Exposed Person” (PEP).

The RBI says being politically exposed does not mean being financially suspect. But they cannot simply wave them through. Banks must take reasonable steps to establish their source of funds and wealth, obtain senior management approval before opening an account and subject it to enhanced, continuous monitoring. There is an interesting twist. If an ordinary customer suddenly becomes a PEP, the bank cannot pretend nothing has changed. And the rules do not stop at politicians themselves. Family members and close associates of PEPs are also covered under this provision.

Yet RBI has drawn a clear line: PEP classification is a risk-assessment tool, not a badge of suspicion. Enhanced due diligence is mandatory, but discrimination is not. The message to banks is simple: keep an extra eye on political power—but don’t treat power itself as a crime. Does this definition help contain mounting NPAs of banks!

Congress' UP Gamble

After nearly 20 years, the Congress is back to playing the same gamble; appointing a woman as its UP unit president after Rita Bahuguna Joshi's experiment miserably failed. Ms Bahuguna headed the UP unit between 2007-2012 and later  joined the BJP after a brief stint with the SP. The Congress had also experimented with Sheila Dikshit briefly to woo Brahmins and women. The party is back with Aradhana Mishra Mona to woo the same constituency.  

But those watching the developments in UP say that the move could make seat-sharing negotiations with the Samajwadi Party comparatively easier now. As long as Ajay Rai remained in charge, this appeared difficult. Rai is a street leader and had given Prime Minister Narendra Modi a tough fight in the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat in 2024. 

Aradhana Mishra has been picked up as she is the daughter of senior party leader Pramod Tiwari and may make alliance with SP smoother. Even Rita Bahuguna Joshi was the daughter of late Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna and Sheila Dixit was the daughter-in-law of late Uma Shankar Dixit. Interestingly, Anuradha had met Akhilesh Yadav on August 26 along with her father before her being appointed as PCC Chief.