by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta 

Modi@25: When India Goes Modimay

For 15 days, India is likely to have one subject dominating the political conversation: Narendra Modi@25. The BJP and its governments are leaving little to chance as they prepare an elaborate nationwide celebration of the Prime Minister completing 25 years in constitutional public life.

The occasion will be marked through the annual 'Seva Pakhwada', from September 17 to October 2. This year, it is being planned on a much larger canvas. The exercise will begin on Modi’s birthday and end on Gandhi Jayanti, with the entire fortnight carefully choreographed around his political journey—from becoming Gujarat Chief Minister in 2001 to serving as Prime Minister since 2014.

The planning is extensive. The BJP has drawn up 13 broad service-oriented programs: Blood-donation camps, free health check-ups, tree plantations, cleanliness drives, water schemes and other infrastructure projects.

There will be a parallel intellectual and massive publicity exercise. Seminars, exhibitions and public programs will tell the Modi story through the prism of governance, welfare and development. Jan Dhan, Ujjwala, PM-Kisan, UPI and other flagship initiatives, to reach the last person in the queue, will figure prominently.

The economic scoreboard will not be forgotten either as India's reported 7.8 per cent real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026-27 is another Modi-era achievement. And the celebration will not stop at India’s borders. Messages and tributes from foreign leaders are expected to add an international dimension. It is a 15-day national showcase—service in the field, achievements on the screen and Modi at the centre of the narrative- the country could well feel a little more “Modimay” - a Modi-fied India.

Smriti Irani for RS Now!

Of the eight general secretaries in BJP Chief Nitin Nabin's team, two are eyeing Rajya Sabha berths in November. The grapevine has it that Smriti Irani and Harish Dwivedi, are keen for nomination when the BJP is set to win 8 of the ten RS seats. Smriti Irani who had lost 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Amethi, had been in political wilderness and rehabilitated as general secretary last month.

Another contender for the RS seat is Harish Dwivedi who also lost his Basti Lok Sabha seat in 2024. The BJP leadership is said to have considerable faith in him. It may be noted that other general secretaries; Vinod Tawde, Biplab Kumar Deb, Satish Poonia, Gajendra Patel and Sanjay Bhatia are Members of Parliament.

Sunil Bansal is the only general secretary who is not interested in becoming an MP. He wants to stay put in the organisation only as he also came from the RSS like B L Santhosh. He was once regarded as one of the most powerful party leaders in Uttar Pradesh. Reports even suggested that he was effectively running the state government. It is said that at least six out of eight may be new faces in the RS biennial polls. Rajya Sabha MP Dinesh Sharma has already been made LG of Andaman and Nicobar.

Gen Alpha Gives BJP Jitters

Schoolchildren are hitting the streets—and governments are suddenly listening. A new wave of Gen Alpha protests is spreading across states, demanding the most basic of rights: teachers in classrooms, toilets, drinking water, benches, etc.

What began as a school-level grievance is fast turning into an accountability movement from state to state. The trigger may have been Abhijeet Dipke’s “School Thik Karo” campaign, launched from a government school in his native Santuk Pimpri village in Maharashtra’s Hingoli district.

And this is not the conventional student movement. There are no student unions, political leaders or established intermediaries to negotiate with. There is simply a generation discovering the power of the street. At a time when the BJP governs much of the country, Gen Alpha’s anger is landing disproportionately at its doorstep.

The anxiety at the top is visible. At a recent Cabinet meeting, ministers were reportedly handed envelopes ranking them on the traction generated by their social-media content across platforms—a revealing sign of how seriously the political establishment is taking the new generation and its digital habits. The PM is walking an extra mile to connect with them frequently these days. The BJP leadership has also set up a high-level committee to engage with the increasingly restive youngsters. But the reported delay of seven hours in registering a simple FIR in the pellet-gun case and other such incidents in the national Capital only exposed the gap.

Gen Alpha has discovered the one thing governments cannot afford to ignore: the power to make noise. Rajasthan rolled out a Rs 12500 crores school re-building fund and UP has started Kaya Kalp for school massive funds.

Rahul’s Punjab Bus Finally Ready!

Rahul Gandhi’s much-awaited Punjab yatra may finally be getting on the road. The Congress has replaced Bhupesh Baghel with Sachin Pilot as AICC in-charge of Punjab, signaling a fresh attempt to put the state unit in order before Feb-March 2027 polls. Baghel apparently failed to deliver—and paid the political price. Pilot now faces the tougher test: bringing warring Punjab Congress factions onto one platform.

Rahul Gandhi had planned to kick-start his poll campaign with a bus yatra, but the program has been repeatedly pushed back. The continuing feud between state chief Amrinder Singh Raja Warring and former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi shows little sign of cooling.

Pilot’s first job, therefore, is not merely to prepare the Congress for battle with the AAP. He has to ensure that the Congress bus actually moves—and that nobody inside the party tries to pull it in opposite directions.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Rahul’s New Weapon: The Letter Bomb

From Modi to Fadnavis and Soren, the LoP is firing off letters — and governments are beginning to take notice.  Rahul Gandhi may have found a new weapon in his armoury — the letter.

The Leader of Opposition is increasingly using his office to write directly to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief ministers, putting contentious issues on record and demanding action. Rahul Gandhi's latest missive to the Prime Minister seeking an an FIR under the SC/ST Act against those involved in the “shuddikaran” or purification of the Ramlila ground in Haldwani after Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, a Dalit, addressed a public meeting there, is yet to see any result. But Rahul camp followers are hopeful of a win on the issue. Alternatively, he may sit on a dharna at a key place and force the government's hands as happened in the pellet gun case.

On August 25, Rahul Gandhi and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge jointly wrote to Modi demanding that the government scrap the open-ended questionnaire proposed for the upcoming caste census. A day earlier, Rahul had written to Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis over the grievances of protesting tribal students. That letter appears to have packed some punch.

Rahul wanted the 30-year age cap for tribal hostel admissions for female students to be revoked. The Maharashtra government scrapped the 30-year age limit for tribal hostel admissions. Rahul’s latest letter-writing campaign began with his ally, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren over student protests. 

For Rahul, the message seems clear: if Parliament is one battlefield, the letterhead is becoming another. Rahul may not be knocking on doors anymore. He is putting the doors on notice.

Governors reshuffle on the anvil

The shake-up in the ruling BJP may be followed by another exercise—this time in the Lok Bhavans. Despite a round of gubernatorial appointments and transfers as recently as March, indications are that another reshuffle is already being worked out.

New Governors and Lieutenant Governors are expected to be appointed in about half a dozen states and Union Territories. At least seven Governors and LGs have completed their five-year term and are due for a change, making the Lok Bhavans the next likely destination for some veterans.

Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka are emerging as the key theatres. UP Governor Anandiben Patel has been in office since July 2019, while Gujarat Governor Acharya Devvrat has also completed a long stint. The BJP is reportedly weighing a Brahmin face for the Uttar Pradesh Lok Bhavan—an appointment that could carry considerable political significance in the state.

Uttarakhand Governor Lt Gen Gurmit Singh (Retd), a former Deputy Chief of Army Staff, has considerable familiarity and following in Punjab which is heading for Assembly elections next year.

Karnataka, too, could see a change of guard. Governor Thaawarchand Gehlot is reportedly in line for replacement, with Assembly elections due in 2028 as the BJP may prefer a more politically active face.

Madhya Pradesh Governor Mangubhai C. Patel has also completed five years. In addition, four Union Territory LGs have crossed the five-year mark, making a wider reshuffle possible. Tamil Nadu could also figure in the exercise as Kerala Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar has been holding additional charge of Tamil Nadu.

Women Welfare: BJP's Delhi Model

The BJP swept to power in Delhi in February 2025 with a promise that struck a powerful electoral chord — Rs 2,500 every month to women under its Mahila Samman scheme.

Delhi had 71.73 lakh women registered voters in February 2025, and the BJP clearly reaped the political harvest of its promise. The number has risen to 74 lakh now. The scheme, billed as a measure of women’s honour, is turning into something of an eligibility obstacle course, imposing as many as 10 conditions. Now, the Delhi government’s own estimate brings the number of beneficiaries down to around 17 lakh. That is where the irony begins.

Applicants are required to submit as many as ten documents. Most contentious is the requirement for a recommendation letter from the local MLA or MP — effectively making an elected representative the gatekeeper to a government entitlement.

Then comes the 10-year Delhi residency rule. This could leave out women who moved to the capital after marriage or for employment, even if they possess Aadhaar cards and valid voter IDs. There is more. Women with more than three children are excluded, potentially cutting out 15% of them. Families earning above ₹2.5 lakh annually are out. So are families with four-wheelers or electricity consumption above 2,400 units a year. Government employees, pensioners and those already receiving certain government benefits are obviously excluded. And there is one more twist: only one woman per family — the eldest eligible female member — can receive the benefit. The latest rider is that eligible women will get Rs 1000 cash and remaining Rs 1500 will go as long-term Fix-Deposit.

So, after eighteen months of waiting, the Delhi model may well end up teaching a new lesson in welfare politics. A role model, perhaps, for other states.

Why a Cabinet Minister cried

The delayed Cabinet reshuffle's shocks are visible. Union Tribal Affairs Minister Jual Oram has accused fellow party leaders of plotting to tarnish his image and engineer his exit. The six-time Rourkela MP cried after his political associate Rakesh Paswan was arrested in Bihar for allegedly sheltering armed criminals at Rourkela’s government Circuit House. Oram alleges that rivals are running a campaign to defame him, hoping to grab his Cabinet berth. His remarks were aimed at newly elected Rajya Sabha member Dilip Ray, also from Rourkela who is lobbying for a berth. Oram is fighting to stay put.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall 

Harish Gupta 

BJP Shakes, Govt Wait Grows Longer

Fifty-one of the 65 faces in BJP president Nitin Nabin’s new organisational team are newcomers. Months of political churn, consultations and calculations have finally produced the much-awaited team. Yet, political watchers are struggling to decide whether it is a grand makeover or simply “choo-choo ka murabba”—a curious hodgepodge of mismatched ingredients thrown into one bowl.

Beyond the rehabilitation of Smriti Irani and Ram Madhav and Vindo Tawde's big promotion, there is little that can be described as a political earthquake. The real reshuffle, insiders insist, is still waiting in the wings. The biggest giveaway? Several ministers who were expected to move from the government to the organisation have stayed put. The BJP Parliamentary Board is yet to be reconstituted. So is the Central Election Committee. In other words, the organisational surgery is far from complete.

And then there is the government. Ministers—and political birds perched hopefully on the power tree—have been waiting for months for the second act. The Cabinet reshuffle, whenever it comes, could be far more dramatic. At least two dozen ministers are believed to be vulnerable to either the axe or a portfolio swap. Some prominent leaders who missed Nabin’s organisational bus could get a ministerial berth instead.

The urgency is obvious. Several ministers are already juggling three portfolios, making the government look less like a well-oiled machine and more like a one-man-three-ministry circus. So, what has just happened? Perhaps nothing more than Part One of the BJP shake-up. Part Two is still loading.

The Importance of Being Vinod Tawde

After years in the political wilderness following his exit from Maharashtra state politics in 2019, Vinod Tawde has staged a remarkable comeback. The prominent OBC leader is no longer a peripheral figure in the BJP’s power structure; he is increasingly being treated as a frontline troubleshooter.

Tawde was a BJP general secretary and had handled Bihar as well. Yet, much of the credit for the 2025 Bihar Assembly victory went to then Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who was the state election in-charge. Now, Tawde has been handed the BJP’s most politically consequential assignment: Uttar Pradesh.

His elevation is revealing. Tawde figures at the top of the BJP’s eight general secretaries in the organisational pecking order, with Smriti Irani placed fourth. Party insiders say the high command specifically asked Tawde whether he preferred to serve the organisation or join the government. He chose the party—and was rewarded with the UP assignment, widely regarded as the BJP’s political Waterloo in 2027 Assembly polls.

The stakes could hardly be higher. The “Chanda Chori” controversy surrounding the Ayodhya Ram temple and the emergence of Gen-G in the form of the CJP have added to the BJP’s anxieties. The BJP won a staggering 312 of 403 seats in 2017, but slipped to 255 in 2022. Tawde’s mandate is blunt: stop the slide and deliver a stronger tally in 2027.

Sonia’s Memoir: A First in the Dynasty

When Sonia Gandhi’s memoir hits the shelves in November, it will mark a curious first for India’s most famous political family.  The former Congress president will become the first member of the Nehru-Gandhi family since Independence to publish a memoir in her own voice—despite the dynasty having produced three Prime Ministers.
Jawaharlal Nehru got there first, but well before Independence. His An Autobiography, also published as Toward Freedom, appeared in 1936, eleven years before he became Independent India's first Prime Minister.

Indira Gandhi never wrote a conventional autobiography. Her closest equivalent was My Truth, published in 1980 and based on extensive personal interviews and reflections. The book offered glimpses into her childhood in Allahabad, her relationship with her father, her education and, inevitably, her political worldview. It appeared at a particularly dramatic moment—when she was briefly out of power.

Rajiv Gandhi, too, left no autobiography or memoir of his own. His life has instead been chronicled by family members, colleagues, historians and biographers. 
Interestingly, Sonia Gandhi herself provided one of the more intimate windows into Rajiv’s life. In 1992, she compiled and introduced Rajiv’s World: Photographs by Rajiv Gandhi, a collection of his own photographs spanning four decades.

Now Sonia is turning the lens on herself. And that makes her memoir more than another political autobiography. For a family that has spent generations being written about, this time, a Nehru-Gandhi will be writing the story.

Tailpiece: The Cabinet reshuffle may have become less a political exercise and more a search for the perfect Muhurat. With speculation refusing to die down, political circles are now focusing on just one possible date in August or wait until the Navratras. According to the pundits, there is no auspicious window for such a major political exercise until November 20. That leaves Modi with an unusual dilemma: reshuffle now, or wait for the stars to cooper

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Modi Follows Manmohan Singh, For a Change

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent a decade bitterly attacking Manmohan Singh’s government and rode to power in 2014 on a promise to undo the legacy of the UPA. But when it comes to counting caste, Modi appears to be walking a path already taken by his predecessor.

The irony is hard to miss: the NDA and UPA governments seem to be on the same page when it comes to counting caste. The 2011 population Census did not include a general caste enumeration. The Manmohan Singh government subsequently ordered a separate Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) in 2011 to collect caste names in a dis- aggregated manner.

Instead of producing a manageable list of castes, the exercise reportedly threw up around 46 lakh caste names, against just 4,147 caste entries in government records. For example the Social Justice and Empowerment ministry has a list of 2479 recognised OBC castes. But the Rohini Commission pegged this list at 2633. Then there are separate lists of states that differ from the central list. For example, the Central List of Maharashtra contains 256 OBC caste entries. But the state's official reservation list includes approximately 550 recognized backward castes.

This happened because during 2011 SECC counting, respondents were allowed to state their caste themselves. The enumerators did not keep the central and state list of castes. Therefore, the people recorded sub-castes, gotras and other variations, turning the exercise into a 46 lakhs plus statistical nightmare. It was largely due to this reason that the caste data was never officially released.

Now comes the Census 2027. There is a striking similarity with the earlier Caste count exercise. The enumerators' questionnaire will reportedly not carry a predefined list of castes. Enumerators will record the respondent’s answer verbatim rather than classify it into an officially prescribed category.

That raises an uncomfortable question: could Census 2027 produce an even bigger statistical maze? If respondents again freely identify their caste, gotra, varna or sub-caste, officials could potentially end up with more than 46 lakhs caste entries. The Modi government seems to be borrowing a page from Manmohan Singh’s playbook on caste counting.

Who Will Be the ‘Big Brother’?

Before they parted ways six years ago, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) was the BJP’s “big brother” in Punjab. The BJP was the junior partner, contesting just 23 of the 117 Assembly seats. The Modi-Sukhbir Badal meeting recently has revived speculation about an Akali-BJP reunion. But there is one big question: who will be the big brother this time?

Much has changed since 2020. The BJP has spent six years building its own organisation and has fought the 2022 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections independently. Its electoral record may have been disappointing, but the party is clearly in no mood to return as the junior partner. It wants a substantially larger share of the seats.

The Akalis, meanwhile, are unlikely to accept a subordinate role either. Punjab BJP president Kewal Singh Dhillon welcomed the Modi-Badal meeting but insisted that the BJP was preparing to contest all 117 seats. Privately, however, BJP leaders concede that any renewed understanding with the SAD would look very different from the old arrangement that collapsed over the farm laws.

A formal alliance may not be on the cards. Instead, an informal seat-sharing understanding could see the BJP contesting around 60-65 seats and the Akalis about 75, with “friendly fights” in several constituencies. The irony is that both parties need each other, yet neither wants to admit it. The BJP drew a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls despite an 18.56% vote share, while in 2022 it won just two Assembly seats with 6.6% votes. The Akalis fared no better. So, necessity may bring the estranged partners together—but the battle over who wears the bigger brother’s crown could be just as fierce as the election itself.

NDA Allies Step Out of Line

A new unease appears to be stirring within the NDA, with allies showing signs that they may no longer be content playing second fiddle to the BJP. The latest signal came from NCPI leader Sudip Bandyopadhyay, who urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to appoint an NDA convenor. The demand has surprised political circles because no such proposal has been publicly made by any of the allies since Modi came to power in 2014. Bandyopadhyay argued that a dedicated coordinator would improve communication and alliance management, particularly when Parliament is not in session.

Significantly, neither the BJP nor major allies such as the TDP and JD(U) has chosen to comment. The NCPI, which has 20 Lok Sabha MPs who came from the TMC, is increasingly being seen as part of a wider bloc of allies seeking a greater say. The signs are visible elsewhere too. The JD(U) has begun drawing its own red lines in Bihar. Its objection to the Samrat Chaudhary government's decision to turn more than 550 schools into model institutions, rename them Saraswati Vidya Niketan and paint them saffron, was carefully worded but unmistakable. “Education has only one colour,” JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said, signaling discomfort with the politicization of education.

The TDP's Chandrababu Naidu, meanwhile, remains the quintessential back-seat operator—quietly negotiating and getting results. It was due to BJP's allies that the FCRA Bill was sent to a Joint Parliamentary Committee. Individually, these may look like routine alliance politics. Collectively, they suggest something bigger: NDA allies are beginning to assert themselves—and the BJP is being quietly put on notice.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta

Rahul's TINA Moment

There Is No Alternative. In an ironic twist, Congress insiders say the TINA doctrine is now quietly shaping the party's attitude towards Rahul Gandhi. 

Behind closed doors, there is no dearth of criticism. Senior leaders privately admit they often wince at Rahul's unscripted remarks. They feel his speeches, particularly the off-the-cuff observations, sometimes allow the BJP to hijack the narrative. Instead of keeping the spotlight on issues, the debate frequently shifts to what Rahul said—or what he was perceived to have said. Many believe tighter preparation and sharper messaging would make him a far more formidable challenger. Yet, the criticism ends where the leadership question begins.

The uncomfortable truth confronting the Congress is that nobody else comes remotely close. Mallikarjun Kharge commands respect but is not the party's mass campaigner. The younger generation is yet to acquire national stature. Regional satraps have influence in their own states but lack pan-India acceptability. Even INDIA bloc partners, despite their occasional differences with Rahul, instinctively look towards him whenever the Opposition needs a national face.

That has produced what one Congress strategist describes as the party's own TINA moment. The conversation within the party is about protecting him from avoidable political pitfalls and converting his growing political aggression into electoral gains.

For all the murmurs, frustrations and private advice, the Congress has quietly accepted a political reality that mirrors the BJP's own narrative. Just as the BJP insists Narendra Modi invincible and his charisma intact, the Congress has reached the conclusion that, for better or worse, there is no alternative to Rahul Gandhi either.

The Family Dilemma

Few leaders in Indian politics remain as closely intertwined with their family as Rahul Gandhi. But Congress insiders say that, despite the constant consultations, predicting Rahul's final decision is never easy.

According to close party functionaries familiar with the Congress top leadership, Rahul routinely discusses important political issues with a small inner circle that includes Congress Parliamentary Party chairperson Sonia Gandhi, his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and a handful of trusted advisers. Those who have watched these interactions say Rahul is an attentive listener in one-to-one meetings, patiently hearing out differing viewpoints before making up his mind.

What happens after those discussions, however, remains anybody's guess. Congress insiders describe Rahul as a leader who rarely reveals his final thinking until the very last moment. Even those closest to him are often left waiting for the eventual call. As a result, speculation within the party continues until the decision is formally communicated.

Some leaders also believe Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra tread carefully while offering advice, choosing persuasion over pressure. They are said to present their views gently, aware that Rahul prefers to arrive at conclusions on his own rather than being seen as following anyone's line. His decisions regarding Tamil Nadu and Punjab clearly give a clue to his thinking. The complete absence of Robert Vadra from the public glare for the past sometime has also baffled Congress watchers.

For the party, the consultations may be collective, but the final call remains unmistakably Rahul Gandhi's.

Modi Soars, BJP Stumbles; Congress Scores

It is one of the biggest ironies of Indian politics in the digital age. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has built an Instagram empire that no politician in the world can rival. With over 105 million followers, he dwarfs Rahul Gandhi, who has around 13 million followers.

But the twist: The Congress' official Instagram account has significantly more followers than the BJP's official handle. In other words, Modi crushes Rahul. Yet Congress beats the BJP. The contradiction is not accidental. It tells the story of how Indian politics has transformed over the last decade.

The BJP has gradually ceased to be merely a political party. It has become a vehicle for one towering political brand—Narendra Modi. His speeches, travels, diplomacy, Mann Ki Baat, yoga sessions and election rallies dominate the party's communication. Millions feel little need to follow the BJP separately because, in their minds, Modi is the BJP.

Congress, on the other hand, operates differently. Rahul Gandhi has certainly become the party's principal campaigner, but the Congress handle serves as the digital headquarters of the entire opposition ecosystem. For many anti-BJP voters, the Congress account has become the first port of call rather than Rahul's personal page.

Secondly, modern elections are becoming increasingly presidential. The real contest is no longer just between the BJP and the Congress or Modi and Rahul Gandhi. It is between the power of a political personality and the strength of a political organisation. Instagram has merely made that distinction impossible to miss.

BJP on a Peace Mission

The BJP appears to have suddenly discovered the virtues of love, affection and, above all, allies. After months of projecting political confidence, the party leadership has quietly switched to a more conciliatory mode, sending a series of unmistakable signals that it is ready to listen — and perhaps even bend a little.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal is being seen as one such signal. In Bihar, the BJP’s gesture towards Upendra Kushwaha’s family, with his son being accommodated in the Legislative Council, has also set tongues wagging. And then there was Nitish Kumar. The former Bihar Chief Minister had been in Delhi since July 20 for the Parliament session, yet the BJP suddenly found the need to invite him for a meeting. The timing did not escape political observers.

There are other small but telling signs. Two developments appear to have played a role: the BJP’s unexpected setbacks in the recent bypolls and the surprising success of the Abhijeet Dipke-led CJP campaign, which demonstrated that political space outside the established parties can suddenly acquire momentum.

The BJP, it appears to have realized that dominance does not mean it can take allies, voters or emerging political forces for granted. So, for now, the BJP is on a peace mission. And the hugs seem to have begun.