by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta

"No Glucose" for the Akalis — Shah's Punjab Power Play

The BJP's Punjab unit arrived in Delhi hoping for clarity on a possible alliance with the Akali Dal. What they got instead was a blunt message from Home Minister Amit Shah: the BJP is not in the business of administering "glucose" to anyone. Known for speaking his mind without diplomatic cushioning, Shah reportedly dismissed speculation about reviving the old BJP-Akali partnership ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections. When party leaders raised the alliance question, Shah's response was short and sharp: prepare to fight all 117 seats.

The remarks also validate growing indications that Punjab has moved to the top of Shah's political agenda. After investing heavily in West Bengal, the BJP's master strategist is now turning his attention to a state where the party has historically lacked an independent footprint.

This column had flagged it on May 27, 2026 — post-West Bengal, Shah's cross hairs would swing to Punjab. That prediction has now walked into a conference room and taken a seat at the table. 

For decades, the BJP played junior partner to the Akalis. That era is over. At a marathon closed-door strategy session in the Capital, attended by senior central leaders including BJP president Nitin Navin, Shah outlined an ambitious road map. The immediate target is to raise the party's vote share from around 19 per cent in 2024 to 28–30%. That's not incremental growth — that's a political land grab. The era of political oxygen for allies is ending. In Punjab, the BJP wants to breathe on its own.

Can Mamata Be Compared with Indira Gandhi?

Reports suggesting that former West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee may be losing control of the TMC have revived memories of one of Indian politics' most remarkable stories of survival—that of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The comparison has obvious limits. Indira Gandhi led a national party and governed India, while Mamata's influence remains largely regional. Yet the parallels are striking.

Indira Gandhi was effectively thrown out of her own party twice. The first time came in 1969, when she clashed with the Congress old guard, known as the Syndicate, over the presidential election. Defying the party leadership, she backed Vice-President V.V. Giri against the Syndicate's nominee, Neelam Sanjiva Reddy. Giri's victory triggered a split between Congress (R), led by her, and Congress (O), led by the old guard. Indira took her battle directly to the people. Her "Garibi Hatao" campaign transformed the 1971 Lok Sabha election into a referendum. She won a landslide, while the Syndicate faded into irrelevance.

The second expulsion came after her darkest political moment. Following the Emergency and the Congress defeat in 1977, party leadership expelled Indira Gandhi. Undeterred, she formed Congress (I). Within two years, she was back in power as Prime Minister.

This history is worth recalling as a rebel faction reportedly seeks control of the TMC, arguing that it represents the "real" party. But do the claimants of “Real TMC” have a leader like Mamata- a street fighter? Whether Mamata can emulate Indira's remarkable comebacks remains uncertain. But Indian political history offers one enduring lesson: losing control of a party does not necessarily mean losing the support of the people.

How War Turned Into a Bonanza for Bihar

For a state that barely figures on India's industrial map, Bihar had quietly emerged as an ethanol powerhouse. More than two dozen ethanol plants were operational producing over 50 crore litres of ethanol annually. Then came the crisis. In late 2025, Bihar's ethanol dream appeared headed for collapse. Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) slashed procurement from the state's grain-based distilleries by nearly 50 percent, preferring sugar-based ethanol. Industry leaders complained that investments worth thousands of crores had been made on assurances of full procurement.

Since ethanol could be sold only to petroleum companies due to prohibition policy, producers had no alternative market. Many blamed prohibition driven Gujarat's sugar-based ethanol industry for cornering a larger share of OMC orders. Plants shut down in Bihar, jobs were threatened, and fears of bankruptcy spread across the sector.

Then geopolitics intervened. The conflict in West Asia sent global energy markets into turmoil, forcing India to intensify its search for domestically produced fuel alternatives. Suddenly, Bihar's idle ethanol capacity became a strategic asset. For Bihar's ethanol producers, a distant war has delivered an unexpected windfall.

Squatting in Lutyens

The Congress has a new home. But it refuses to leave the old one. Indira Bhavan on Kotla Marg is officially the party's new headquarters. Shiny. Renamed. Re-branded. Yet, deep in the heart of Lutyens' Delhi, 24, Akbar Road still hums with Congress life — frontal organisations, party cells, and the quiet comfort of being just a stone's throw from Sonia Gandhi's fortress at 10, Janpath.

Old habits. Old addresses. Old power.

The party's defence? Classic Congress deflection — "But the BJP does it too!" Point noted: 11, Ashoka Road still runs BJP departments. Fair enough. But the bungalow stands in the name of an MP. Except Congress isn't just arguing parity — it's arguing permanence. And here's where the plot thickens. 24, Akbar Road is a Type-VIII government bungalow. It can't just be wished into Congress hands — someone has to formally hold it. And that's where the arithmetic gets awkward.

Sonia Gandhi? Already has 10 Janpath.  Rahul Gandhi? Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha — official bungalow, sorted. Kharge? Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha — accommodation, sorted. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra? Security-cover bungalow — sorted.

So who holds 24, Akbar Road? Digvijaya Singh? Retired. Some long-serving MP or ex-CM minister? Possible — but there is none. Spoiler: don't hold your breath.

The Modi government holds the last card. And handing Congress a prime Lutyens address on a silver platter isn't exactly on their agenda. 24, Akbar Road may have Congress's soul. But the keys? That's another matter entirely.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

The Emergence of a New Rahul Gandhi

The smooth elevation of V.D. Satheesan in Kerala and D.K. Shivakumar in Karnataka as Chief Ministers has earned the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi praise from within the party, with many veterans crediting him for decisive yet understated political management. In Kerala, Rahul Gandhi surprised many by backing Satheesan for the top post despite widespread speculation that he favoured his close confidant K.C. Venugopal. The decision demonstrated a willingness to prioritize political considerations over personal equations. In Karnataka, his role in facilitating Siddaramaiah's orderly exit and ensuring a peaceful transfer of power to Shivakumar was viewed as a rare example of successful succession management in a party often plagued by factional battles.

However, Congress insiders argue that the transformation began much earlier. For years, Rahul Gandhi was perceived as a leader who listened patiently to senior colleagues and to Sonia Gandhi, often accepting collective decisions while bearing the political brunt. Yet, he decided to draw a line on May 6 when he abruptly severed ties with the DMK and aligned the Congress with Vijay's TVK in Tamil Nadu.

The move sent shock waves through political circles. Critics accused him of betraying a long-standing ally, but insiders maintain that Rahul had been advocating a break with the DMK well before the Assembly elections. His advice was set aside after intense lobbying by the DMK leadership. Having accepted the decision, Rahul moved swiftly once the results were declared. The subsequent leadership choices in Kerala and Karnataka reinforced the impression that he was now exercising authority more assertively. After setbacks over leadership transitions in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh earlier, Rahul Gandhi appears determined not to repeat past mistakes. Another feather in the cap came when INDIA Bloc leaders agreed to hold their coordination committee meetings during parliament sessions in LoP room- Rahul Gandhi’s room. 

 Self-Inflicted Goals

Rahul Gandhi's greatest political challenge has often been his own tendency for unscripted remarks. While supporters praise his spontaneous style as evidence of authenticity, critics argue that it has repeatedly handed opponents easy opportunities to put him on the defensive. The most significant fallout came from his 2019 "Modi surname" remark, which eventually led to his conviction in a defamation case and temporary disqualification from Parliament. Over the years, several other comments have triggered legal complaints and political controversies, keeping him entangled in avoidable battles.

The BJP has been particularly effective in turning Gandhi's off-the-cuff observations into political ammunition. Remarks on Hindu society, caste dynamics, or the concentration of power within institutions have often been selectively amplified to portray him as divisive or disconnected from mainstream sentiment. Similarly, speeches delivered abroad have frequently been criticized by opponents as undermining India's democratic institutions on foreign soil.

The debate surrounding Rahul Gandhi ultimately boils down to authenticity versus political discipline. His informal style allows him to connect with audiences in a way scripted politicians often cannot. Yet the same spontaneity creates risks, enabling adversaries to focus on individual remarks crossing decorum rather than the broader message he seeks to convey. For a leader seeking national power, the challenge remains converting candour into credibility while avoiding the self-inflicted goals that have so often overshadowed his political campaigns.

When the ED Divides the Opposition 

It may sound odd, but true. Normally, a raid by the CBI or the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on an Opposition leader has a predictable effect: it brings Opposition parties together in a show of solidarity against political vendetta. In Kerala, however, the ED appears to have achieved the opposite.

The controversy revolves around T. Veena, daughter of former Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, and allegations linked to the financial dealings of her company, Exalogic, with Cochin Minerals and Rutile Ltd. The ED's investigation appeared to move slowly for months. Officially, sources attributed the delay to court orders. The issue nevertheless became a major campaign weapon for the Congress. Rahul Gandhi repeatedly attacked the CPI(M), alleging that the party had become a "pocket borough" of the BJP in Kerala.

The ED finally raided Veena's premises on May 26 and the CPI(M) workers vandalised ED vehicles claiming they came to defend Vijayan. But the former Chief Minister told reporters that ED officials did not question him. Yet CPI(M) general secretary M.A. Baby sharply criticised Rahul Gandhi for raising the issue during the election campaign. Insiders say the real story is not the divisions within the INDIA bloc but within the CPI(M) itself. Once dominated by its West Bengal leadership, the CPM's centre of gravity has shifted decisively to Kerala. The struggle over the party's future direction is increasingly visible—and the ED episode has only exposed those fault lines further.

BJP CMs under glare

With the Assembly polls over, the process of organisational changes in the BJP is underway. Whispers in the corridors of power suggest changes in leadership of some BJP-ruled states. A couple of chief ministers are facing allegations of corruption, inefficiency etc. If the Ankita Bhandari murder case controversy is refusing to die in Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu is in the line of fire after the Supreme Court ordered a CBI probe against him. There is a talk of Union Minister Kiran Rijiju replacing Prema Khandu. Another chief minister of a key North Indian state who was picked up from nowhere, is also in the line of fire due to his inefficiency.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

The Importance of Being Sergio Gor

For much of 2025, India found itself in the uncomfortable position of being both a strategic partner of the United States and a frequent target of public criticism from Washington. Whether it was India's purchase of Russian oil, trade imbalances, or tariff disputes, sharp comments from senior American officials—including President Donald Trump—had become almost routine.

Then came Sergio Gor. Long before he formally assumed office as the US Ambassador to India in January 2026, Gor had already signaled his importance. In a highly unusual move, he called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi in October 2025, months before presenting his credentials. The meeting was viewed in diplomatic circles as a clear indication that Gor enjoyed extraordinary access to the highest levels of the Trump administration.

Since his arrival, the tone of India-US engagement has undergone a noticeable shift. Public criticism of India from Washington has largely disappeared, replaced by a renewed emphasis on cooperation in trade, technology, defence and strategic affairs. Diplomats and observers alike credit Gor's unique standing within the White House for helping smooth several irritants that had clouded bilateral ties.

The ambassador has also emerged as one of the most visible American envoys in recent memory. Unlike many diplomats who operate quietly behind closed doors, Gor has maintained a high public profile through frequent media interactions and extensive travel across India. His outreach has extended well beyond New Delhi, encompassing meetings with regional leaders, business groups and civil society.

Attention is now focused on the next big question in the relationship: who visits whom first? While US Secretary of State Marco Rubio conveyed President Trump's invitation to Modi for a White House visit, New Delhi has remained non-committal. Many in diplomatic circles argue that protocol favours Trump visiting India first, possibly for the forthcoming Quad Leaders' Summit. As that debate unfolds, one thing is increasingly clear: in the current phase of India-US relations, the importance of being Mr. Gor cannot be overstated.

Who Should Educate Whom?

Few ministries have generated as much controversy under the Modi government as the Education Ministry. From Smriti Irani and Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank to the current incumbent, Dharmendra Pradhan, almost every Education Minister has found himself or herself under scrutiny over examination management, policy implementation, budgetary priorities, and reform delivery. Former minister Prakash Javadekar remains one of the few exceptions who largely escaped any major controversy.

The latest storm has erupted over the Centre's proposal to deploy the Indian Air Force (IAF) to transport question papers for the NEET-UG retest scheduled on June 21. What was intended as a confidence-building measure has instead triggered sharp criticism from opposition parties, education experts, and others. Critics argue that involving the IAF exposes the depth of the crisis rather than demonstrating administrative efficiency. They contend that the government is resorting to military logistics because it has failed to fix the systemic vulnerabilities within the National Testing Agency (NTA) forcing the cancellation of the May 3 test.

Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan himself acknowledged institutional lapses while confirming that the government was considering airlifting question papers directly from printing presses to secure centres across the country.

The move has reignited a larger debate: should one of the country's most trusted military institutions be pressed into service to compensate for shortcomings in a civilian examination system? Critics say the IAF's primary responsibility is safeguarding national security and the nation's borders—not rescuing an examination process repeatedly hit by allegations of leaks and mismanagement.

As the controversy grows, many are asking a pointed question: instead of deploying fighter-force precision, shouldn't the government first focus on repairing the credibility of the institutions?

Uncertainty Looms Over Lutyens’ Delhi Clubs

The Centre’s decision to reclaim the sprawling 27.3-acre Delhi Gymkhana Club may have got some temporary reprieve. But it has sent ripples across other such clubs located in the heart of Lutyens’ Delhi. With the government aggressively pushing ahead with its larger redevelopment vision, attention has now shifted to other clubs occupying prime public land. Among those under the scanner are the Delhi Golf Club, Press Club of India, Indian Women’s Press Corps and the Chelmsford Club on Raisina Road.

Both the Press Club of India and the Indian Women’s Press Corps have, in the past, received notices to vacate government-allotted premises. However, legal interventions, administrative delays and institutional push back helped them retain possession. With the Centre moving decisively on long-pending urban redevelopment projects, concerns are resurfacing. The redevelopment of the Central Vista construction plan is in full swing with the new Parliament building in place and the transformation of Kartavya Path underway. The latest move against Delhi Gymkhana Club is not an isolated action but part of a much larger reshaping of new power spaces in the capital. For many elite clubs in Lutyens’ Delhi, the message is unmistakable: old privileges may no longer be untouchable.

Congress' RS Puzzle in Madhya Pradesh

The race for the lone Rajya Sabha seat for Congress in Madhya Pradesh is turning out to be intriguing, with senior leader Digvijaya Singh opting out of the race. Singh has served two consecutive Rajya Sabha terms. Instead, Singh desired that the seat be given to a Dalit leader.

In politics, very few leaders are willingly stepping aside from the cozy club. But by doing so, Digvijaya Singh may actually have strengthened his influence over the selection of the incumbent. Insiders say that he has effectively blocked the prospects of former Chief Minister Kamal Nath or his son Nakul Nath who had lost the family stronghold of Chhindwara in the last Lok Sabha election.

Meanwhile, a new social-equity narrative is also emerging within the Congress. Political insiders believe the suggestion to nominate a Dalit leader for the seat will help the party in the Assembly polls and enhance the stature of Singh.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta

Amit Shah: Bengal Blitz to Mission Punjab

After scripting a historic breakthrough in West Bengal — long seen as one of the BJP’s toughest political frontiers — Union Home Minister Amit Shah is now believed to be turning his full attention towards Punjab. Within the BJP, there is growing buzz that Shah may personally oversee the party’s campaign and organisational strategy in the border state ahead of next year’s Assembly elections. Though Sunil Bansal was formally entrusted with handling West Bengal, party insiders acknowledge that Amit Shah himself played the central role in steering the campaign. Shah reportedly camped nearly a fortnight in the state during the elections, closely monitoring booth-level management and political outreach. The BJP leadership now appears keen to replicate a similar high-intensity model in Punjab.

While Assembly elections are also due in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, the BJP already heads governments in these states. Punjab, however, presents a different political challenge. For decades, the BJP largely played second fiddle to its former ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal. The party is now determined to emerge as an independent pole of politics in the state. The first major signal came a couple of years ago with the appointment of senior former Congress leader Sunil Jakhar as the BJP’s Punjab chief. Since then, several prominent leaders from the Congress and other parties, including former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and Ravneet Singh Bittu have either joined or aligned with the BJP. Bittu was later inducted into the Union Ministry. 

The BJP’s aggressive expansion strategy is now in full swing with defections of seven Rajya Sabha Mps from the Aam Aadmi Party. The “Open arm” policy will be visible from the AAP, Congress and the Akali Dal as the Assembly polls draw closer. 

In Search of a Punjab Face

As the BJP sharpens its strategy for the high-stakes Punjab Assembly elections, intense speculation is underway over whether the party will project a Chief Ministerial face or fight under the towering shadow of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

For decades, the BJP was perceived in Punjab largely as an urban, non-Sikh Hindu party and remained dependent on its ally, the SAD. But party leaders believe the political landscape has changed significantly. Over the years, the BJP has quietly expanded its social base, bringing into its fold influential Sikh leaders, Dalit faces, Jat Sikh representatives and leaders from multiple caste groups.

The latest buzz centres around senior advocate and noted human rights activist H. S. Phoolka, whose entry into the BJP after his stint with the AAP has fueled speculation that he could emerge as a prominent face for the party in Punjab. However, BJP insiders insist the party is unlikely to officially declare any Chief Ministerial candidate. Instead, the elections are expected to be fought largely around Modi’s leadership, governance plank and national appeal, with the Prime Minister remaining the BJP’s undisputed face in Punjab.

Where Losing Can Be Rewarding

Amritsar may well be India’s most politically “charitable” Lok Sabha constituency — a place where electoral defeat does not necessarily end careers, but often elevates them. In a political system usually unforgiving to losers, this high-profile Punjab seat has quietly earned a reputation for producing remarkably well-rewarded candidates. It was in 2014 when senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley lost the Amritsar contest but soon emerged as one of the most powerful ministers in Modi’s Cabinet. The pattern repeated itself in 2019 when former diplomat Hardeep Singh Puri was quickly elevated within the Union government and remains a key minister in the Modi Cabinet after losing Lok Sabha polls.

The tradition continued with former ambassador Taranjit Singh Sandhu. After his defeat in the 2024 Lok Sabha election from Amritsar, Sandhu has now been appointed Lieutenant Governor of Delhi, further cementing the constituency’s unusual political folklore. In most constituencies, defeat is seen as a setback, sometimes even political exile. But in Amritsar, losing seems less like a rejection and more like a stepping stone to higher office. In this “holy city,” political setbacks often come wrapped in unexpected rewards.

India Bloc in Limbo

With the Congress abandoning its long time ally, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and joining hands with the TVK, the future of the INDIA Bloc seems to be in limbo. The JMM is also upset with the Congress in Jharkhand. Mamata Banerjee who was contemplating to emerge as a rallying point of the Opposition in the country with the help of Akhilesh Yadav (SP) and Arvind Kejriwal (AAP) in toe, suffered a serious setback after her rout in West Bengal. Kejriwal is on the back foot after loss in Delhi and the Mann government in Punjab is also facing a serious threat to its survival. 

Yet, Mamata added more confusion by giving a call for a meeting of the INDIA bloc in June. It is not clear where the meeting will be held- in Kolkata or Delhi. It is also not clear whether she had done so in consultation with the Congress or otherwise. Although Rahul Gandhi had publicly supported Mamata Banerjee after her defeat by asking party men not to criticize her. But many INDIA bloc parties are miffed with Congress and the gulf is widening. Therefore, Mamata Banerjee's move may be one of the ways to retain the unity of the INDIA Bloc and Congress may have taken a step back. But this damage control is unlikely to help the Opposition as Rahul Gandhi continues to play solo.

Tailpiece: A Hush Hush meet

A hush-hush meeting between UP's powerful bureaucrat Sanjay Prasad and BJP National President Nitin Nabin has set off a fresh round of speculation in Delhi power circles. Prasad, a 1995-batch IAS officer, is handling CM Yogi's Office, Home, Information and Vigilance.

What added to the intrigue was that a photograph of the meeting briefly appeared on Nabin’s official social media handles before disappearing the next day. While those close to Prasad have sought to play down the episode as nothing more than a “courtesy call,” a few appear convinced. Both Prasad and Nabin hail from Bihar. It is said that Prasad may be keen to take a political plunge.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A majority in Rajya Sabha for BJP  far away

No significant gain in current round of biennial polls 

Harish Gupta 

The BJP is unlikely to improve its tally significantly in the current round of biennial polls for 24 Rajya Sabha seats. Of the 24 seats, the BJP's 12 Mps are retiring and the party will be able to win 12 seats. If it loses one seat in Karnataka, it will gain one in Gujarat. The BJP may ask TDP to give one RS seat which may be a bonus. The BJP's current strength in Rajya Sabha is 113 and it needs 122 seats to gain a majority as the house strength is 243.

The BJP may gain a majority in Rajya Sabha on its own in 2028 as there are 12 seats (UP and Uttarakhand)  that will go to polls this year and four Rajya Sabha seats in 2027- Kerala (3) and Puducherry (1). The BJP will have to break the Opposition ranks once again like a split in the AAP when 7 out of 10 MPs quit to join the BJP. The NDA's current strength is 144 which will go up to 147.

In the two by-polls, the NDA will retain one in Maharashtra but lose another in Tamil Nadu. The NCP will retain its  seat but C V Shanmugam (AIADMK) seat will now go to TVK.

The Congress will lose one seat in Gujarat as Shakti Singh Gohil can't win due to lack of numbers. But the party will win one extra seat in karnataka. Therefore, if its four Mps are retiring, the same number will return from Karnataka (2), Madhya Pradesh (1) and Rajasthan (1).  

The Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge is set to be renominated by the party. Ashok Gehlot and Digvijay Singh are also eyeing Rajya Sabha ticket in Rajasthan and  Madhya Pradesh  respectively. The Congress has 29 members and its strength is likely to remain so.

These 24 seats include four each in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Karnataka, three each in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, two in Jharkhand, one each in Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram.