by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Chabahar Damaged, Jolt to India’s Strategic Port

The escalating conflict involving Donald Trump’s United States, Israel and Iran is beginning to cast a long and troubling shadow over India’s strategic interests in West Asia. Beyond the immediate geopolitical tremors, New Delhi is now confronting tangible losses — the most serious being the reported damage and shutdown of the strategically vital Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran. According to informed sources, the port has been badly hit in the recent hostilities. The extent of the damage is still being assessed, but officials acknowledge that the losses could be substantial. The government is now dispatching a team to Iran to evaluate the situation and determine the impact on Indian investments and operations.

For India, Chabahar is far more than a commercial project. The port represents a critical strategic gateway allowing New Delhi to bypass Pakistan and access landlocked Afghanistan and the broader Central Asian region. The project has long been a cornerstone of India’s connectivity and geopolitical outreach to Eurasia. Ironically, the port had only recently secured a fragile diplomatic reprieve. In October last year, the United States had agreed to grant another sanctions waiver for Chabahar following intense negotiations involving Washington’s ambassador-designate Sergio Gor. Gor reportedly held marathon meetings with senior Indian officials, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, during a series of confidential discussions in New Delhi.

The implications are serious. India had signed a 10-year contract in May 2024 to operate the Shahid Beheshti terminal at Chabahar, a commitment central to its long-term regional strategy. With the port now damaged, Indian entities operating there face uncertainty and potential penalties, raising fresh concerns about the vulnerability of India’s overseas strategic assets in an increasingly volatile region.

The Importance of Being V. K. Saxena

In the latest gubernatorial reshuffle, the appointment of V. K. Saxena may not have grabbed headlines, but it carries significant strategic weight. Saxena has been named the fourth Lieutenant Governor of Ladakh, succeeding earlier appointees including R. K. Mathur, B. D. Mishra and Kavinder Gupta of UT which was created just six years ago.

The Centre appears to be banking on Saxena’s administrative experience at a sensitive time for the Himalayan Union Territory. Having earlier served as LG of Delhi, Saxena built a reputation for an assertive, hands-on style of governance. His tenure saw him play a key role in shaping the political and administrative landscape that eventually helped the BJP regain power in the capital in 2025.

Hand-picked by Narendra Modi, who had earlier noticed his work at the Khadi and Village Industries Commission, Saxena is now expected to focus on development and security in Ladakh. His appointment also comes amid persistent demands from groups such as the Leh Apex Body and the Kargil Democratic Alliance for statehood and Sixth Schedule protections — making his role both administrative and politically delicate.

TMC singing to its own tune in Assam & Kerala

In politics, what appears obvious is often deceptive. This is why a key question is being asked: Is Mamata Banerjee genuinely committed to stopping the BJP not just in West Bengal, but across the country? If one examines closely, a pattern is visible- weaken the Congress. In Goa, TMC's aggressive entry in 2022 ended up damaging the Congress far more than the BJP. TMC secured 5.2 per cent of the vote in 2022, while the Congress vote share fell by 4.9 per cent. The Aam Aadmi Party also polled around seven per cent, and together they decimated the Congress. It has never recovered in the state. In Meghalaya, Mamata Banerjee went a step further by engineering a split in the Congress and inducted most of its MLAs into TMC. A similar attempt was made in Jharkhand, though without success.

The same strategy now seems to be unfolding ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections in Assam and Kerala. TMC is preparing to contest alone in both states where a small vote share can prove decisive. In Assam, the Congress' Gaurav Gogoi even reached out to the TMC leadership. But his efforts went in vain. In Kerala, two-time Left-backed MLA P.V. Anvar has joined TMC, suggesting that Mamata’s entry there may weaken the Congress more than the BJP, even if it indirectly benefits the CPM. That appears not to concern her. The CPM is no longer a serious force in Bengal; the Congress, however, remains a rival nationally and the TMC may be a casual ally in the INDIA Bloc.

Why Khan Got the Boot!

March 5 turned into a day of high political drama in Bihar. It is perhaps first time that a state lost a Chief Minister and the Governor too. In a matter of hours, two powerful occupants of office — Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Governor Arif Mohammad Khan — were out of the picture. Kumar’s exit was hardly shocking, though his decision to move to the Rajya Sabha did raise eyebrows. The real surprise was the abrupt removal of Khan. Almost instantly, the Centre moved to install former Lieutenant General of the army, Syed Ata Hasnain as the new Governor.

The speed of the transition suggested a carefully scripted political move by the ruling BJP establishment to tighten its grip on the state’s political narrative. Ironically, Khan had been a trusted pick of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, first appointed Governor of Kerala in 2019 before being shifted to Bihar in December 2024. After more than six years in gubernatorial office — and once even whispered as a possible vice-presidential contender — his sudden exit remains unexplained, and politically intriguing.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP high command to pick 16 RS candidates shortly 

Nitin Nabin, Mithun Chakraborty, Pawan Singh, K Annamalai in the reckoning

RS biennial polls for 37 seats on March 16 

Harish Gupta

The BJP high command is likely to meet soon to field around 16 candidates for the 37 Rajya Sabha seats that will go to the polls on March 16 while its allies will contest another six. The prominent names under consideration are of party president Nitin Nabin from Bihar though there is some ambiguity over him. It is said that former BJP national presidents Amit Shah and Nitin Gadkari had continued as MLAs for a considerable period after becoming party chief.

The BJP is set to win two seats in Bihar out of 5 and JD(U) will win remaining two while one seat MGB may win with the help of AIMIM. But this is an open seat for now. A Bhoj puri singer Pawan singh is another name doing the rounds. He met the high command recently in Delhi. Former MP Rama Devi, Nand Kishore Yadav, Rakesh Tiwari, and Rituraj Sinha are also in the reckoning.

Some of the prominent names emerging are of former BJP Tamil Nadu president K Annamalai and BJP general secretary Vinod Tawade. Actor-politician Mithun Chakraborty, Manmohan Samal, BJP state president Odisha, instrumental in the party's win in the assembly polls and Abhinandan Panda, son of a veteran BJP leader Basant Panda are being considered from Odisha.

Former Congress leader Kiran Chaudhary, who joined the Bharatiya Janata Party two years ago, is hoping to get another term but there are murmurs that the party could instead pick a Jat leader for the upcoming vacancy in Haryana.

The BJP will gain at least five Rajya Sabha seats out of 37 seats. The BJP's 9 MPs are retiring (Maharashtra 2), Odisha (2), Assam (2) Haryana (2), Himachal (1) among the 37 MPs elections for which are being held.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta 

Why the PMO Is Upset

The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) is understood to be deeply dissatisfied with the manner in which two sensitive issues — the Aravalli Hills matter and the University Grants Commission (UGC) regulations controversy — were handled by the concerned departments. Sources indicate that a comprehensive performance review of several ministries and departments is currently underway. Insiders suggest this scrutiny is also one of the reasons behind the delay in organisational  and other changes.

The Modi government faced considerable political and legal heat over the Aravalli Hills case. In late 2025, the Supreme Court accepted a new “100-metre elevation” definition for the Aravalli range proposed by a committee led by the Environment Ministry. Critics argued that the new definition would leave more than 90 per cent of the ecologically fragile stretch open to mining. The ministry initially defended its position, but the SC later kept the definition in abeyance. Following the backlash and institutional embarrassment, the Centre directed states to impose a complete ban on fresh mining leases in the Aravallis.

What has raised eyebrows within the establishment is that the PMO has, in the past, intervened when proposals threatened environmentally sensitive regions. Despite that track record, this lapse occurred.

The second flash point was the UGC’s “Promotion of Equity in Higher Education Institutions Regulations, 2026.” Intended to address caste-based discrimination, the notification triggered controversy for appearing to focus primarily on reserved categories (SC, ST, OBC) while allegedly overlooking grievances from the general category. As protests spread nationwide, the ministry continued to defend the regulations, insisting they would not lead to misuse. When the PMO sought clarification, it was reportedly informed that the UGC — an autonomous body — had not consulted it before issuing the notification. The obvious follow-up question — why then was it defended? — reportedly drew no convincing response. The twin episodes have exposed gaps in coordination, political assessment and anticipatory governance — precisely the areas the PMO is now believed to be examining closely.

Delhi’s Empire and Punjab’s Maharaja

Captain Amarinder Singh once carried himself like Punjab’s last Maharaja — proud, commanding, answerable to no one. But politics, like royalty, changes once you enter a new court. His move from Congress to the BJP was supposed to be a graceful retirement plan: a Governor’s chair, a ceremonial farewell, and perhaps a secure political landing spot for his family. Instead, the Maharaja discovered a harsher truth — in the BJP, you do not negotiate your future, you are assigned one.

Today, neither wife nor son holds an elected post. The Captain himself, no longer in active health or active politics, has become more symbol than player. When he recently hinted he could even leave the BJP because no senior leader listens to him, the message was loud: even Maharajas are not consulted in this empire. The Congress, sensing an opening, spoke of welcoming him back.

But hold your breath! Almost instantly came the ED notice under a lighter provision (FEMA) — to Amarinder and his son — over their foreign assets. The timing was not subtle. The family quickly clarified: no, they are not going anywhere. They are loyal soldiers of the BJP. And then, as if on cue, the officer issuing the notice was transferred. Silence returned. The Captain may have thought he joined the BJP for protection. But perhaps he has learned the deeper rule: once you are inside, your future is no longer yours to decide.

Double Landing in Gujarat: Nitin Meets Kejri's Ambition

Call it coincidence — or the quiet drumbeat of an early campaign season. As newly appointed BJP chief Nitin Nabin made his first high-profile visit to Gujarat, shadowed by Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, another political traveller touched down almost simultaneously: Arvind Kejriwal, accompanied by Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.

Nabin stayed three days. Kejriwal stayed two. But the subtext lasted longer. The BJP has ruled Gujarat for nearly three decades. Yet the real churn is not about power — it is about who occupies the opposition space. The AAP, which bagged 12.92% vote share in 2022, now smells blood. Internal projections claim it has surged to nearly 25%, overtaking a listless Congress and positioning itself as the principal challenger ahead of 2027.

Kejriwal’s pitch is blunt: push Congress to third place, turn Gujarat into a direct BJP-versus-AAP duel. Even a strong second-place finish in local body polls would redraw the state’s political map. For Congress, this is existential. For BJP, it is a reminder that the challenger may no longer wear the old colours.

The Reluctant Patriarch Who Knows Everything

Nitish Kumar insists he is no believer in dynasty. He invokes Karpoori Thakur like a moral shield — socialism over surname, principle over progeny. As long as he is active, he says, his son will remain outside politics. And yet, curiously, the marketing department seems to be working overtime. On cue, party leaders float Nishant’s name for organisational roles, Rajya Sabha prospects, even future leadership. The whispers are too coordinated to be accidental, too persistent to be spontaneous. But the Chief Minister maintains studied innocence — as if these are independent outbreaks of enthusiasm.

This is vintage Nitish: publicly austere, privately adaptive. He knows the optics of dynasty in Bihar’s politics are tricky. So the son does not “enter”; he is merely “encouraged.” The father does not “promote”; he merely “observes.”  The message is subtle: succession is not ambition — it is compulsion, even consensus.

And if the choreography looks suspiciously well-rehearsed, perhaps it is because the script was never meant to surprise the director. That's why Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh and Sanjay Jha are publicly batting for Nishant Kumar's entry in the Rajya Sabha or a key role in the party.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Congress may gain in RS biennial polls

4 MPs retiring, party may win 6 seats

Harish Gupta

If the BJP is improving its Rajya Sabha tally from 103 seats to 108-109 in the biennial polls scheduled for March 16, the Congress may also improve its numbers. Currently, the Congress has 25 Mps in the Rajya Sabha and its four members are retiring. If the party plays its cards well, it may gain two extra seats. The four party Mps retiring are Rajni Patil (Maharashtra) , Abhishek Singhvi (Telangana) and KTS Tulsi and Phulo Devi Netam (Chhattisgarh).

According to reports emanating from the AICC, given the current situation, Abhishek Manu Singhvi is sure to be renominated from Telangana. The Congress is also likely to get one seat in Chhattisgarh and the name of former Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is doing the rounds. The Congress may also get one seat each in Himachal Pradesh and Haryana. It is ruling Himachal and has 37 MLAs in Haryana and 31 votes are needed to win a seat.

The Congress may get a seat in Assam as well where it has 29 votes and needs the support of 32 MLAs to win the seat. If the CPM (1), AIUDF (16) and BPF (1) support, the Congress may gain a seat. However, Assam Chief Minister Hemanta Biswa Sarma has declared that the BJP will win all three seats.

The Congress may hope to get a seat in Odisha if an understanding is reached with Naveen Patnaik of the BJD. The BJD has 51 votes and a candidate needs 30 votes to win a seat. The Congress has 14 MLAs. The parties can put up a common candidate against the ruling BJP.

The Congress high command is hopeful of getting an extra seat in Telangana which the Chief Minister Reventh Reddy has assured. The UPA has 65 MLAs and may get the support of AIMIM (7 MLAs) and several rebel BRS MLAs.

The Congress has also urged the DMK in Tamil Nadu to spare a RS seat since the Chief Minister M K Stalin is not sharing power with it though prospects are bleak.

(separate Box)

Former Union Minister Anand Sharma & Bhanwar Jitendra Singh, film actor Raj Babbar, Pawan Khera, Sachin Rao, Krishna Allavaru, Meenakshi Natrajan, Supriya Shrinate and others eyeing RS seats.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Experts Question Caste Census with an Escape Clause?

No "Dedicated" column for OBCs like SCs/STs

Harish Gupta

Population experts are baffled by the government's notification where citizens will be answering 33 questions during the first phase of the Census, starting April 1. The enumerators will ask whether the head of the household belongs to the Scheduled Caste, the Scheduled Tribe or other communities. 

Experts say that individuals have been given the option to disclose their caste or category rather than giving OBCs (Other Backward Classes) a "dedicated column" as in the case of Scs and Sts. Of course, an individual can certainly mention his caste in the “Third column”. But this column is for all castes including the Upper, OBC or others.

Enumerators will certainly mention the caste as told to them by the individuals. But there is no specific instruction/column for OBCs. Experts point out that in the absence of this provision, counting OBCs from the third column will be an impossible task.

The puzzle is sharper because the government has, after much delay, agreed to conduct India’s first caste-based census since 1931. The move came after sustained pressure from OBC groups, who argue that they constitute over 52 per cent of the population and therefore deserve a proportionate share in state resources and welfare benefits.

When contacted, the government sources declined to comment but informally  agreed that there is no consolidation for OBCs column, unlike the consolidation that continues for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST).

For the first time, the Census will also allow self-enumeration through digital means, with specific codes provided for non-disclosure. The critics warn that built-in escape routes could undermine the very objective of the exercise.

Ever since OBCs were granted reservations in jobs and educational institutions in the 1990s, there has been a persistent demand for a nationwide caste census. Some states, including Bihar and Haryana, attempted caste surveys, but most failed to reach logical conclusions due to political and administrative hurdles.