by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall 

Harish Gupta 

BJP Shakes, Govt Wait Grows Longer

Fifty-one of the 65 faces in BJP president Nitin Nabin’s new organisational team are newcomers. Months of political churn, consultations and calculations have finally produced the much-awaited team. Yet, political watchers are struggling to decide whether it is a grand makeover or simply “choo-choo ka murabba”—a curious hodgepodge of mismatched ingredients thrown into one bowl.

Beyond the rehabilitation of Smriti Irani and Ram Madhav and Vindo Tawde's big promotion, there is little that can be described as a political earthquake. The real reshuffle, insiders insist, is still waiting in the wings. The biggest giveaway? Several ministers who were expected to move from the government to the organisation have stayed put. The BJP Parliamentary Board is yet to be reconstituted. So is the Central Election Committee. In other words, the organisational surgery is far from complete.

And then there is the government. Ministers—and political birds perched hopefully on the power tree—have been waiting for months for the second act. The Cabinet reshuffle, whenever it comes, could be far more dramatic. At least two dozen ministers are believed to be vulnerable to either the axe or a portfolio swap. Some prominent leaders who missed Nabin’s organisational bus could get a ministerial berth instead.

The urgency is obvious. Several ministers are already juggling three portfolios, making the government look less like a well-oiled machine and more like a one-man-three-ministry circus. So, what has just happened? Perhaps nothing more than Part One of the BJP shake-up. Part Two is still loading.

The Importance of Being Vinod Tawde

After years in the political wilderness following his exit from Maharashtra state politics in 2019, Vinod Tawde has staged a remarkable comeback. The prominent OBC leader is no longer a peripheral figure in the BJP’s power structure; he is increasingly being treated as a frontline troubleshooter.

Tawde was a BJP general secretary and had handled Bihar as well. Yet, much of the credit for the 2025 Bihar Assembly victory went to then Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who was the state election in-charge. Now, Tawde has been handed the BJP’s most politically consequential assignment: Uttar Pradesh.

His elevation is revealing. Tawde figures at the top of the BJP’s eight general secretaries in the organisational pecking order, with Smriti Irani placed fourth. Party insiders say the high command specifically asked Tawde whether he preferred to serve the organisation or join the government. He chose the party—and was rewarded with the UP assignment, widely regarded as the BJP’s political Waterloo in 2027 Assembly polls.

The stakes could hardly be higher. The “Chanda Chori” controversy surrounding the Ayodhya Ram temple and the emergence of Gen-G in the form of the CJP have added to the BJP’s anxieties. The BJP won a staggering 312 of 403 seats in 2017, but slipped to 255 in 2022. Tawde’s mandate is blunt: stop the slide and deliver a stronger tally in 2027.

Sonia’s Memoir: A First in the Dynasty

When Sonia Gandhi’s memoir hits the shelves in November, it will mark a curious first for India’s most famous political family.  The former Congress president will become the first member of the Nehru-Gandhi family since Independence to publish a memoir in her own voice—despite the dynasty having produced three Prime Ministers.
Jawaharlal Nehru got there first, but well before Independence. His An Autobiography, also published as Toward Freedom, appeared in 1936, eleven years before he became Independent India's first Prime Minister.

Indira Gandhi never wrote a conventional autobiography. Her closest equivalent was My Truth, published in 1980 and based on extensive personal interviews and reflections. The book offered glimpses into her childhood in Allahabad, her relationship with her father, her education and, inevitably, her political worldview. It appeared at a particularly dramatic moment—when she was briefly out of power.

Rajiv Gandhi, too, left no autobiography or memoir of his own. His life has instead been chronicled by family members, colleagues, historians and biographers. 
Interestingly, Sonia Gandhi herself provided one of the more intimate windows into Rajiv’s life. In 1992, she compiled and introduced Rajiv’s World: Photographs by Rajiv Gandhi, a collection of his own photographs spanning four decades.

Now Sonia is turning the lens on herself. And that makes her memoir more than another political autobiography. For a family that has spent generations being written about, this time, a Nehru-Gandhi will be writing the story.

Tailpiece: The Cabinet reshuffle may have become less a political exercise and more a search for the perfect Muhurat. With speculation refusing to die down, political circles are now focusing on just one possible date in August or wait until the Navratras. According to the pundits, there is no auspicious window for such a major political exercise until November 20. That leaves Modi with an unusual dilemma: reshuffle now, or wait for the stars to cooper

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Modi Follows Manmohan Singh, For a Change

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent a decade bitterly attacking Manmohan Singh’s government and rode to power in 2014 on a promise to undo the legacy of the UPA. But when it comes to counting caste, Modi appears to be walking a path already taken by his predecessor.

The irony is hard to miss: the NDA and UPA governments seem to be on the same page when it comes to counting caste. The 2011 population Census did not include a general caste enumeration. The Manmohan Singh government subsequently ordered a separate Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) in 2011 to collect caste names in a dis- aggregated manner.

Instead of producing a manageable list of castes, the exercise reportedly threw up around 46 lakh caste names, against just 4,147 caste entries in government records. For example the Social Justice and Empowerment ministry has a list of 2479 recognised OBC castes. But the Rohini Commission pegged this list at 2633. Then there are separate lists of states that differ from the central list. For example, the Central List of Maharashtra contains 256 OBC caste entries. But the state's official reservation list includes approximately 550 recognized backward castes.

This happened because during 2011 SECC counting, respondents were allowed to state their caste themselves. The enumerators did not keep the central and state list of castes. Therefore, the people recorded sub-castes, gotras and other variations, turning the exercise into a 46 lakhs plus statistical nightmare. It was largely due to this reason that the caste data was never officially released.

Now comes the Census 2027. There is a striking similarity with the earlier Caste count exercise. The enumerators' questionnaire will reportedly not carry a predefined list of castes. Enumerators will record the respondent’s answer verbatim rather than classify it into an officially prescribed category.

That raises an uncomfortable question: could Census 2027 produce an even bigger statistical maze? If respondents again freely identify their caste, gotra, varna or sub-caste, officials could potentially end up with more than 46 lakhs caste entries. The Modi government seems to be borrowing a page from Manmohan Singh’s playbook on caste counting.

Who Will Be the ‘Big Brother’?

Before they parted ways six years ago, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) was the BJP’s “big brother” in Punjab. The BJP was the junior partner, contesting just 23 of the 117 Assembly seats. The Modi-Sukhbir Badal meeting recently has revived speculation about an Akali-BJP reunion. But there is one big question: who will be the big brother this time?

Much has changed since 2020. The BJP has spent six years building its own organisation and has fought the 2022 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections independently. Its electoral record may have been disappointing, but the party is clearly in no mood to return as the junior partner. It wants a substantially larger share of the seats.

The Akalis, meanwhile, are unlikely to accept a subordinate role either. Punjab BJP president Kewal Singh Dhillon welcomed the Modi-Badal meeting but insisted that the BJP was preparing to contest all 117 seats. Privately, however, BJP leaders concede that any renewed understanding with the SAD would look very different from the old arrangement that collapsed over the farm laws.

A formal alliance may not be on the cards. Instead, an informal seat-sharing understanding could see the BJP contesting around 60-65 seats and the Akalis about 75, with “friendly fights” in several constituencies. The irony is that both parties need each other, yet neither wants to admit it. The BJP drew a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls despite an 18.56% vote share, while in 2022 it won just two Assembly seats with 6.6% votes. The Akalis fared no better. So, necessity may bring the estranged partners together—but the battle over who wears the bigger brother’s crown could be just as fierce as the election itself.

NDA Allies Step Out of Line

A new unease appears to be stirring within the NDA, with allies showing signs that they may no longer be content playing second fiddle to the BJP. The latest signal came from NCPI leader Sudip Bandyopadhyay, who urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to appoint an NDA convenor. The demand has surprised political circles because no such proposal has been publicly made by any of the allies since Modi came to power in 2014. Bandyopadhyay argued that a dedicated coordinator would improve communication and alliance management, particularly when Parliament is not in session.

Significantly, neither the BJP nor major allies such as the TDP and JD(U) has chosen to comment. The NCPI, which has 20 Lok Sabha MPs who came from the TMC, is increasingly being seen as part of a wider bloc of allies seeking a greater say. The signs are visible elsewhere too. The JD(U) has begun drawing its own red lines in Bihar. Its objection to the Samrat Chaudhary government's decision to turn more than 550 schools into model institutions, rename them Saraswati Vidya Niketan and paint them saffron, was carefully worded but unmistakable. “Education has only one colour,” JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said, signaling discomfort with the politicization of education.

The TDP's Chandrababu Naidu, meanwhile, remains the quintessential back-seat operator—quietly negotiating and getting results. It was due to BJP's allies that the FCRA Bill was sent to a Joint Parliamentary Committee. Individually, these may look like routine alliance politics. Collectively, they suggest something bigger: NDA allies are beginning to assert themselves—and the BJP is being quietly put on notice.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta

Rahul's TINA Moment

There Is No Alternative. In an ironic twist, Congress insiders say the TINA doctrine is now quietly shaping the party's attitude towards Rahul Gandhi. 

Behind closed doors, there is no dearth of criticism. Senior leaders privately admit they often wince at Rahul's unscripted remarks. They feel his speeches, particularly the off-the-cuff observations, sometimes allow the BJP to hijack the narrative. Instead of keeping the spotlight on issues, the debate frequently shifts to what Rahul said—or what he was perceived to have said. Many believe tighter preparation and sharper messaging would make him a far more formidable challenger. Yet, the criticism ends where the leadership question begins.

The uncomfortable truth confronting the Congress is that nobody else comes remotely close. Mallikarjun Kharge commands respect but is not the party's mass campaigner. The younger generation is yet to acquire national stature. Regional satraps have influence in their own states but lack pan-India acceptability. Even INDIA bloc partners, despite their occasional differences with Rahul, instinctively look towards him whenever the Opposition needs a national face.

That has produced what one Congress strategist describes as the party's own TINA moment. The conversation within the party is about protecting him from avoidable political pitfalls and converting his growing political aggression into electoral gains.

For all the murmurs, frustrations and private advice, the Congress has quietly accepted a political reality that mirrors the BJP's own narrative. Just as the BJP insists Narendra Modi invincible and his charisma intact, the Congress has reached the conclusion that, for better or worse, there is no alternative to Rahul Gandhi either.

The Family Dilemma

Few leaders in Indian politics remain as closely intertwined with their family as Rahul Gandhi. But Congress insiders say that, despite the constant consultations, predicting Rahul's final decision is never easy.

According to close party functionaries familiar with the Congress top leadership, Rahul routinely discusses important political issues with a small inner circle that includes Congress Parliamentary Party chairperson Sonia Gandhi, his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and a handful of trusted advisers. Those who have watched these interactions say Rahul is an attentive listener in one-to-one meetings, patiently hearing out differing viewpoints before making up his mind.

What happens after those discussions, however, remains anybody's guess. Congress insiders describe Rahul as a leader who rarely reveals his final thinking until the very last moment. Even those closest to him are often left waiting for the eventual call. As a result, speculation within the party continues until the decision is formally communicated.

Some leaders also believe Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra tread carefully while offering advice, choosing persuasion over pressure. They are said to present their views gently, aware that Rahul prefers to arrive at conclusions on his own rather than being seen as following anyone's line. His decisions regarding Tamil Nadu and Punjab clearly give a clue to his thinking. The complete absence of Robert Vadra from the public glare for the past sometime has also baffled Congress watchers.

For the party, the consultations may be collective, but the final call remains unmistakably Rahul Gandhi's.

Modi Soars, BJP Stumbles; Congress Scores

It is one of the biggest ironies of Indian politics in the digital age. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has built an Instagram empire that no politician in the world can rival. With over 105 million followers, he dwarfs Rahul Gandhi, who has around 13 million followers.

But the twist: The Congress' official Instagram account has significantly more followers than the BJP's official handle. In other words, Modi crushes Rahul. Yet Congress beats the BJP. The contradiction is not accidental. It tells the story of how Indian politics has transformed over the last decade.

The BJP has gradually ceased to be merely a political party. It has become a vehicle for one towering political brand—Narendra Modi. His speeches, travels, diplomacy, Mann Ki Baat, yoga sessions and election rallies dominate the party's communication. Millions feel little need to follow the BJP separately because, in their minds, Modi is the BJP.

Congress, on the other hand, operates differently. Rahul Gandhi has certainly become the party's principal campaigner, but the Congress handle serves as the digital headquarters of the entire opposition ecosystem. For many anti-BJP voters, the Congress account has become the first port of call rather than Rahul's personal page.

Secondly, modern elections are becoming increasingly presidential. The real contest is no longer just between the BJP and the Congress or Modi and Rahul Gandhi. It is between the power of a political personality and the strength of a political organisation. Instagram has merely made that distinction impossible to miss.

BJP on a Peace Mission

The BJP appears to have suddenly discovered the virtues of love, affection and, above all, allies. After months of projecting political confidence, the party leadership has quietly switched to a more conciliatory mode, sending a series of unmistakable signals that it is ready to listen — and perhaps even bend a little.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal is being seen as one such signal. In Bihar, the BJP’s gesture towards Upendra Kushwaha’s family, with his son being accommodated in the Legislative Council, has also set tongues wagging. And then there was Nitish Kumar. The former Bihar Chief Minister had been in Delhi since July 20 for the Parliament session, yet the BJP suddenly found the need to invite him for a meeting. The timing did not escape political observers.

There are other small but telling signs. Two developments appear to have played a role: the BJP’s unexpected setbacks in the recent bypolls and the surprising success of the Abhijeet Dipke-led CJP campaign, which demonstrated that political space outside the established parties can suddenly acquire momentum.

The BJP, it appears to have realized that dominance does not mean it can take allies, voters or emerging political forces for granted. So, for now, the BJP is on a peace mission. And the hugs seem to have begun.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta 

Dipke's Defining Dilemma

Abhijeet Dipke may soon face the biggest political test of his fledgling movement—not from the government, but from success itself. As the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) gains visibility and attracts disgruntled sections of society, the inevitable question is surfacing: Should it remain a pressure group or take the electoral plunge?

For the moment, Dipke has been making all the right noises. He has neither announced plans to launch a political party nor categorically ruled one out. The ambiguity appears deliberate, allowing the movement to broaden its support base without frightening away those who are united by a cause rather than ideology.

History, however, offers a cautionary tale. Arvind Kejriwal's anti-corruption movement began with repeated assertions that it would never enter electoral politics. The promise did not survive the momentum of the agitation. The movement transformed into a political party, and won power in Delhi and elsewhere. But the transition also diluted the moral authority that had made the movement powerful. But Kwejriwal also fell into the same political trap.

Dipke would do well to study that journey carefully. Pressure groups often wield influence disproportionate to their size. They can mobilise public opinion, force governments to negotiate, shape legislation and hold political parties accountable without carrying the baggage of elections, alliances and ideological compromises. The moment a movement contests elections, priorities change. Winning seats begins to overshadow winning causes. Many view his sudden rise with suspicion too as he had not gained much traction after he landed at the Delhi airport. But how the CJP became a phenomenon after June 20 raises RSS' suspicion.

Whether Dipke resists that political temptation could determine the future of the CJP. Remaining a non-partisan pressure group may limit its formal power but preserve its credibility. Becoming a political party could open the doors to government—while risking the very identity that gave the movement its appeal. The choice may ultimately define not just Dipke's career, but the legacy of the movement itself.

Congress MP's Role Gives PMO a Lifeline

Political circles are still trying to decode the unexpected role played by Congress Rajya Sabha MP Vivek Tankha in bringing activist Sonam Wangchuk's hunger strike to an end.

Until then, the Modi government had been scrambling to defuse the crisis. After the events at Jantar Mantar on July 20, officials feared the situation could spiral further. Sources say the PMO had activated every available channel to persuade Wangchuk to call off his fast. That is where Tankha entered the picture.

The senior Congress leader shared a close rapport with Wangchuk, having successfully represented him in the Supreme Court after his detention under the National Security Act (NSA). His appeal, therefore, carried far more weight than that of any government emissary. Tankha has maintained that he intervened solely because he was worried about Wangchuk's deteriorating health. However, political insiders claim government intermediaries quietly reached out to him after their own efforts failed to produce results.

Whether Tankha acted entirely on humanitarian grounds or also became an unwitting bridge between the government and Wangchuk is now the subject of intense political chatter. What is beyond dispute is that the hunger strike ended dramatically—and the PMO appeared to have escaped an increasingly uncomfortable political crisis. The full story, insiders insist, is yet to emerge.

Who Is Gunning for Gadkari?

Why has Union Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari suddenly landed in the cross hairs over the E-20 ethanol blending policy?

That is the question puzzling many within the government.

The irony is hard to miss. Gadkari neither heads the ministry that frames the ethanol policy nor is he its decision-maker. Yet, among all the faces associated with E-20, he has emerged as the principal target of the growing campaign against it.

The protests themselves are unusual. Unlike campus movements driven by students, the resistance to E-20 is being spearheaded by owners of older vehicles—taxi operators, transporters and motorists with pre-2015 models. Their numbers are relatively small, but the agitation has begun attracting political backing, giving it a larger profile.

Gadkari has remained unapologetic. He has repeatedly defended ethanol-blended fuel and challenged critics to produce credible, scientifically verified evidence.That, however, has not stopped the attacks.

According to insiders, government agencies are trying to understand why Gadkari has become the face of the controversy. Intelligence agencies are said to be examining whether organised lobbying or vested commercial interests are amplifying the campaign. Some officials are also exploring whether foreign interests, particularly from oil-exporting Gulf nations that could be affected by India's push towards ethanol, are attempting to influence the narrative. So far, no evidence has been made public to support such a link.

For now, one question continues to hang in the air: Is this merely an agitation over fuel, or is there a bigger game unfolding behind the scenes?

Jha Becomes Nitish's Shadow

Nitish Kumar's transition from Patna to Parliament has been remarkably low-profile. After taking oath as a Rajya Sabha member on April 10, 2026, the former Bihar Chief Minister has been attending the Upper House during the Monsoon Session. However, the spotlight has largely remained elsewhere, with the CJP agitation and repeated disruptions dominating Parliament's attention. It has been observed that the  JD(U) working national president, Sanjay Kumar Jha, is always with him like a shadow. The Rajya Sabha TV has never shown the presence of Nitish Kumar and nor his entry and exit captured by cameras. Nitish, however, has posted on X that he had participated in the RS proceedings for the first time as a member.

The corridors of Parliament are abuzz with whispers that Nitish often struggles to recognise fellow Mps, leaving Jha to quietly introduce colleagues. Some MPs even claim he has occasionally failed to identify prominent national leaders, leading to awkward moments and renewed speculation about his fading memory and political sharpness.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta

Why Modi Blinked!

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to ease the political pressure on Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan caught even seasoned BJP watchers off guard. The move came far sooner than many had anticipated, fueling speculation over what forced the government's hand.

According to sources, the Centre had received alarming intelligence inputs suggesting that anti-social elements had infiltrated the student protests and were attempting to provoke extreme acts, including a possible self-immolation bid. Security agencies were reportedly concerned that any such incident could trigger nationwide unrest and hand the Opposition a powerful political narrative.

The agitation, initially confined to a few places, has steadily spread to several state capitals. Political groups, including Chandrashekhar Azad's Bhim Army, Left organizations and other activist networks, had also joined the protests, giving the movement a wider political dimension.

The government's swift response stands in sharp contrast to its handling of the farmers' agitation. During the year-long protest against the three farm laws, despite over 700 reported deaths—largely attributed to illness, accidents, harsh weather and a few suicides—the Modi government held its ground for nearly a year before finally withdrawing the legislation. This time, however, the government blinked within just 49 days.

Another factor believed to have influenced the government's thinking was the RSS. Party insiders say RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat spoke to Modi and favoured an early political resolution to prevent the agitation from snowballing. Significantly, during the protests, Bhagwat publicly remarked that "the youth need discussion, not dictation," —a message widely interpreted as advice to the government.

Whether it was intelligence warnings, organizational counsel, or a combination of political calculations, one thing is clear: the government concluded that allowing the confrontation to escalate carried risks far greater than making an early tactical retreat.

Govt. Soft for CJP?

A section of the Congress ecosystem remains convinced that the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) is less a spontaneous outfit and more a BJP-backed political experiment. The theory is that the party was floated to fragment student anger and deny the Opposition parties any political dividends of the agitation. Whether that claim holds water is impossible to verify. But what has certainly raised eyebrows is the government's unusually accommodating approach towards the CJP.

The police crackdown during the July 20 protest and Modi's sudden blinking does little to alter that perception. Most of those targeted were not CJP activists but supporters who had joined the agitation independently. The sequence of events has only deepened the intrigue. On June 6, Delhi Police reportedly cleared the CJP's Jantar Mantar protest within minutes, despite no prior application. CJP leader Abhijeet Dipke, who landed from the US that morning, is said to have filed the application at the airport itself and received immediate approval. Instead of facing detention, the organizers found official cooperation.

The pattern continued when the CJP secured permission for another protest, paving the way for Sonam Wangchuk's hunger strike from June 28. Even more striking, after police dismantled the protest stage on July 20, officers reportedly supervised its reconstruction later that night.

Each episode may have a perfectly reasonable explanation. Collectively, however, they have reinforced the Opposition's charge that the authorities have extended an uncommon degree of official courtesy to the CJP—far more than most protest groups can expect.

Pradhan's Exit Rings Alarm Bells in Odisha

Until recently, Dharmendra Pradhan and Bhupender Yadav were widely regarded as the BJP high command's two most trusted lieutenants. Both were once tipped as front-runners for the party presidency. Instead, the leadership stunned observers by choosing the relatively low-profile Nitin Nabin.

Since then, fortunes have shifted. Yadav has come under scrutiny after four members of his personal staff, including his private secretary, were removed at the PMO's instance. Pradhan, meanwhile, has now exited the Union Cabinet.

Ironically, Pradhan had also missed the chance to become Odisha's first BJP Chief Minister after the party's historic victory in 2024. While many expected him to lead the government, the BJP sprang another surprise by picking Mohan Charan Majhi. With Majhi facing mounting criticism over his administration, Pradhan's exit from the Cabinet may not diminish his political clout. If anything, it could free him to focus on Odisha politics—a prospect that is unlikely to comfort the incumbent Chief Minister. Pradhan is a trusted RSS man and his graph has not fallen as he had offered to quit the post twice earlier.

Prahlad Joshi's Biggest Test

Dharmendra Pradhan may have exited the Education Ministry under a cloud, but his successor, Prahlad Joshi, inherits the same unresolved headache—the National Testing Agency (NTA). Created in 2017 as an autonomous body to conduct India's premier entrance examinations, the NTA was meant to professionalise and streamline the testing process. Instead, it has become synonymous with paper leaks, logistical failures and repeated questions over its credibility.

The agency's biggest weakness is structural. Despite conducting some of the country's largest examinations, it reportedly operates with a permanent workforce of barely 25 officials, relying heavily on private contractors for printing, transportation and IT infrastructure and an army of contractual employees. That dependence has repeatedly exposed vulnerabilities in the handling of confidential question papers, with marquee examinations such as NEET-UG and UGC-NET hit by major leak controversies.

The obvious comparison is the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC). Despite conducting equally sensitive nationwide examinations for decades, the UPSC has largely maintained an unblemished record through tightly controlled, compartmentalized systems and minimal outsourcing. For Joshi, the challenge goes beyond damage control. Unless the NTA is fundamentally overhauled, every examination season will remain a political and administrative minefield—and every Education Minister will continue to pay the price.