Fly on the Wall | Modi’s baffling gift to Yogi

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi’s baffling gift to Yogi

The nomination of A K Sharma, Prime Minister Modi’s most trusted bureaucrat, as BJP MLC in UP continues to baffle the political class. Sharma was among Modi’s inner circle of officers when he was Chief Minister of Gujrat in 2001. Be it P K Mishra, K Kailashnathan, J C Murmu, R K Asthana, A K Sharma etc, they were all part of Modi’s CMO. When Modi moved to Delhi in 2014, a battery of around 12 officers moved along. But Modi decided to keep K Kailashnathan in Ahmedabad itself as Anandiben Patel’s CMO. The status of KK, as Kailashnathan is known in the bureaucratic fraternity, didn’t change even after Vijay Rupani took over as CM. KK was Chief Principal Secretary of Modi in 2013 and remains so in 2021 irrespective of who is CM, Gujrat. He is considered “Saheb’s proxy” because Modi talks only to KK and the wheels of administration move accordingly. PK Mishra replaced Nripendra Mishra as Principal Secretary in the PMO and RK Asthana continues to be a powerful IPS officer. J C Murmu was made Lieutenant Governor of Jammu & Kashmir to be Modi’s eyes & ears in Srinagar. But somehow, he could not pass the muster and was brought back to Delhi as CAG. Therefore, the shifting of A K Sharma being sent to UP for a political inning is baffling given Modi's style of functioning. No one in the BJP handling UP affairs was willing to throw any light as to how A K Sharma was chosen as MLC? Who proposed his name? And why did Modi lend his most-trusted officer to UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath? If he was most trusted, then why was he ousted from the PMO in the first place in 2020?

Another KK in Lucknow?

It is no secret that Yogi Adityanath is on his trip in UP and not like other BJP Chief Ministers who pay obeisance to political masters. Insiders in the BJP say that Karnataka CM B S Yediyurappayu is another pain in the neck of the party high command. Yogi doesn’t take the call of many senior leaders. The Central high command was also upset after Yogi Adityanath cut Sunil Bansal, the unquestioned king of Lucknow to run the affairs, to size.

Lately, there have been issues relating to handling crimes in the state and law & order problem, the latest being the Hathras case. Many complain that Yogi has not risen from caste-politics either despite being a loner, unmarried and honest. One school of thought is that it was Yogi who requested the high command to give him a competent person as he doesn’t trust his two deputy Chief Ministers. A K Sharma hails from Azamgarh and can play some role. No one is sure if Nitin Gadkari had a role in Sharma’s going to UP because he worked under him in the MSME as Secretary. No final word has come out about the future role of MLC AK Sharma. Will he be another KK in Lucknow?

Nadda’s rising clout

BJP president J P Nadda is back in action and batting on the front foot in West Bengal polls. He played a key role in the selection of seven Union Ministers who were made incharge of seven regions for Assembly polls. Obviously, Nadda's graph has risen after big Bihar won. Only recently, a couple of Chief Ministers of BJP ruled states wanted to call on the PM. But Modi politely conveyed to them to first apprise “Nadda ji” about the issues. Another major change jolted the party when three posts of joint general secretaries (Organisation) were discarded. Is RSS allowing a free hand to Nadda and General secretary (Organisation) B L Santosh? One will have to watch.

Why Govt doesn't communicate

Be it farm laws or any other issue, the Modi government’s bane is it to rush into decisions and lacking in communication. The classic example is of giving Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to Bharat Biotech’s Covaxine without phase-III trial data. It was alleged that the government had rushed into giving preferred treatment violating rules and risking lives of people. But no one, not even the IMCR, Drug Controller General of India or even the Health ministry said that the rules for EMA were amended way back in March 2019, a year before the Covid break out. The policy was changed by regulators to give EUA for vaccines without waiting for phase-III trial results. No favours were shown to Covaxine per se. When controversy engulfed the scientific community, the rules were dug out from the grave.

1+4 formula to end Congress crisis

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

1+4 formula to end Congress crisis

Four vice presidents under one Interim president 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 12

Amidst contuning crisis in Karnataka, a formula is underway to resolve the vacuum in the 150 year grand old party. If reports are to be believed, final touches are being given to the “one plus four formula”

to end 50-day old crisis which began with the sudden resignation of Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

After a series of deliberations within the Gandhi family members involving Mrs Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi and family loyalists like A K Antony, Dr Manmohan Singh and a couple of others, the 1+4 formula is finding favour.

This formula is that an interim president be appointed by the Congress working committee (CWC) until the organisational elections are completed as per the constitution of the party. It is now clear that the CWC meeting will be called sometime next week as the formula has taken a shape and nitty-gritty is being fixed. The CWC is the party's top decision making body and empowered to take all the decisions in the current crisis-ridden situation. The CWC may be held at the instance of Motilal Vora, senior-most general secretary of the party or Mukul Wasnik, who is currently general secretary (organisation).

With UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi firmly refusing to lead the party as interim president and Priyanka Gandhi is also being ruled out, Mallikarjun Kharge's name is finding favour. Since A K Antony firmly refused to don the mantle and Sushil Kumar Shinde has lagged behind, its Kharge who has emerged stronger given the situation. .

Once Kharge's name is decided, there will be four Vice Presidents under him representing four regions- East, West, North & South. This is what Rahul Gandhi is reported to have tossed the idea before his confidants when he met them last week.

One of the Vice presidents could be Priyanka Vadra (North), Gaurav Gogoi (North East), Mukul Wasnik (West) or Jyotiraditya Scindia and K C Venugopal (South). Venugopal was incharge of Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the Lok sabha polls and came out with flying colours.

There was also a suggestion that Capt. Amrinder Singh be brought in as Interim president. But he is disinclined due to poor health and quitting the CM's post at this juncture. Though there are many in the party who believe that his acceptability is larger at this juncture and he would be able to give a fitting reply to the BJP too. In the event of Priyanka Gandhi opting out, the name of Selja is doing the rounds.

Govt Draws 20-point plan after Farmers suicides rise

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Govt Draws 20-point plan after Farmers suicides rise

Maharashtra tops the ladder

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, June 28

The government admitted in the Lok Sabha today that Maharashtra tops the list of states in the country where maximum number of farmers' suicides have taken place followed by Telangana and Karnataka. Maharashtra witnessed 3030 suicides out of 8007 suicides in the country during 2015 which is higher than 2014 when 2568 suicides took place. In fact, during 2015 the suicides as a whole rose in the country compared to 2014.

The government also informed the Rajya Sabha that data for the subsequent years of 2016, 2017 & 2018 is not available so far. However, there were no farmers' suicides in as many as 16 states out of 36 including in Bihar, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir and Goa.

The Agriculture & Rural Development Minister Narendra Singh Tomar, however, claimed that these would come down as an action plan chalked out by the states is backed by 20-point aggressive support by the Centre. He said that agriculture is a a State subject and State Governments undertake development of perspective plans and ensure effective implementation of the programmes/ schemes.

The Government had constituted an Inter-Ministerial Committee in 2016 to recommend a strategy for Doubling of Farmers’ Income (DFI) by the year 2022 following which an Empowered committee has been constituted on January 23 this year for monitoring the implementation of the recommendations.

The government initiated market reforms including e-NAM, Soil Health Cards, drip irrigation, PM Fasal BIMA, PM-Kisan, higher MSP and other steps to boost income and bring down input costs.

Ends

Fly on the Wall : Piyush Goyal is Bharat Bhai, Truely

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Piyush Goyal is Bharat Bhai, Truely

The North Block is abuzz with stories never heard of in the government before. When the newly appointed Finance Minister, Piyush Goyal visited the ministry soon after taking over, top officials including secretaries went to congratulate him in his chamber. They were surprised to see the Minister was sitting on a sofa rather on the designated chair for formal meetings. Goyal issued the first sermon that they will continue to do the same work they were doing and the personal staff of Jaitley was told to continue working as they were earlier. Goyal did not bring a single person of his choice in the finance ministry. Even after assuming the full-fledged charge of the Finance and Corporate Affairs Ministries, he prefers not to make frequent trips to North Block and calls for files in the Railway Ministry where he sits for long hours. Even the finance ministry's website which put out his name as new Finance Minister, was taken off within hours of being up-loaded. Arun Jaitley continues to be the Finance Minister according to the official website of the ministry. Even when Goyal holds regular meetings with the officials and ministerial colleagues, he does not occupy Jaitley's chair. Officials in the ministry say that Goyal is conducting himself as Bharat, younger brother of Lord Rama during the Ramayan era. When Lord Rama went to the jungles for 14 years, Bharat became the King. But he never sat on the thrown and put “Khadaon” (Wooden sleepers) of Lord Rama on it. Goyal is doing exactly the same. He also makes it a point to visit Jaitley at the AIIMS where he is convalescing after undergoing kidney transplant whenever in town. It is strange but true that Reuters news agency's news that Piyush Goyal will be the new Finance Minister has come true after two years of it being flashed. Goyal vehemently denied that he had any hand in it. But it turned out to be true and that too at a time when his hands are over-filled as he is holding four key portfolios-- Railways, Coal, Finance & Corporate Affairs. Cheers Bharat Bhai.

Rahul, not Sonia clinched the Karnataka deal

It was not Sonia Gandhi but Congress president Rahul Gandhi who “triggered” the post-poll alliance with the JD(S) as the results were trickling and it became clear within hours that the Congress is way behind the majority mark. It was Rahul Gandhi who gave a direction to the State leaders. He had discussed at length - plan A, plan B and plan C and what to do if “we don’t win”. D K Shivkumar who is the Man of the Season in the Karnataka power game disclosed to a few confidants, had told the party leadership in Delhi that the Congress would perform badly in South Karnataka, where the JD(S) is the main contender. Rahul made it clear that if the numbers are wrong, stay back, don’t bid or bargain for power”. He instructed Venugopal to seal the deal with JD (S) and entrusted Ashok Gehlot and Ghulam Nabi Azad who was in touch with Danish Ali, a confidante of H D Kumaraswamy. This was contrary to impression being created by a section of the Congress that Sonia and not Rahul decided to join hands with JD(S). In fact, Rahul Gandhi spoke to Kumaraswamy on Sunday, May 13 itself, two days before the results were out. This was followed up by a phone call from Sonia Gandhi to former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda reiterating the same proposal. In Fact, Siddaramiah, wanted to sit in the Opposition. But Rahul persuaded him to make way as larger challenge is on the horizon in 2019. It was Ghulam Nabi Azad who persuaded him to fall in line. Sonia Gandhi reportedly wooed Deve Gowda by saying that she had no hand when Congress withdrew support of his government at the Centre in 1997. Gowda had lost the Prime Minister's post.

How Amit Shah lost the Karnataka Plot

BJP president Amit shah was working on party's win in Karnataka for almost six months. In fact, his Man-Friday and Railway Minister Piyush Goyal was in regular touch with H D Deve Gowda and his elder son Revenna. The Gowdas were bitter with the Congress ever since Deve Gowda had been dislodged and arch rival Siddaramiah was made the Chief Minister. Lokmat was the first to break the story when Piyush Goyal went to meet the Gowdas in March at the latter's residence. He later asserted that he had gone there to discuss railway projects in Gowda's constituency. Shah and Goyal had offered them the most lucrative deal-- Deputy Chief Ministership to one son and a Cabinet post in the Central government to the other son. The alliance will be post-poll. It was because of this very deal that entire BJP leadership never criticised the Janata Dal (S) throughout the campaign. Rather the PM praised Deve Gowda. The BJP targeted only Rahul, Rahul and Rahul and his party. There were reports that Shah even met Kumaraswamy in Mumbai and the meeting was organised by Piyush Goyal. The formula was that if the BJP is below the majority mark it will enter into an alliance with JD(S) and share power. But Kumaraswamy walked into the lucrative offer made by Rahul Gandhi on Saturday itself that he will be Chief Minister.

Lalu upset with the Gandhis

Down but not out Lalu Prasad Yadav is extremely upset with the Gandhis. Reason is not political but personal. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi had promised to attend the wedding ceremony of his son Tej Pratap at Patna on May 12. The day was fixed keeping in mind that the Karnataka polling will be over by then. Lalu Yadav wanted to make the wedding as demonstration of Opposition's unity in this hour of crisis when the CBI and ED are after him and his family. A chartered plane had also been kept in waiting for the Gandhis and special arrangements for their stay had also been made. But the Gandhi gave the ceremony amiss. Why ? No one knows. This was despite the fact that Rahul met Lalu at the AIIMS a couple of weeks ago. But what came as a surprise was that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar showed up at the wedding. Perhaps, he wanted the send a signal to the BJP leadership that he has his options open. The BJP leadership was not discussing with him Lok Sabha seat sharing arrangement with the Janata Dal (U). Nitish wanted a meeting with Amit Shah. But Amit Shah wanted him to talk to Bhupendra Yadav. Nitish felt slighted and sent the signal. More seems to be in store in Bihar in the months to come.

Fly on the Wall : Cabinet reshuffle round the corner !

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Cabinet reshuffle round the corner !

BJP's senior general secretary Ram Madhav may have missed the Rajya Sabha bus. But the speed with which the party gave him charge of Andhra Pradesh is an indication that BJP is working on a counter-offensive in the state. It transpires that Andhra BJP Chief K Haribabu may be brought in the Union Cabinet to represent the state as it has no representation after the exit of the TDP. There is also a proposal to bring in D Pruandhareswari, daughter of late N T Rama Rao who had joined the BJP long back. Since she was against Chandra Babu Naidu she failed to grow in the BJP. But her stars are shining now with the BJP parting company with the TDP. The party also brought in GVL Narasimha Rao into the Rajya Sabha who hails from Andhra. Party insiders say that the Cabinet reshuffle will take place after the Karnataka Assembly polls and some grass root leaders may be brought in the Cabinet in the wake of mounting pressure from certain states. A large number of ministers have been holding dual charge and since Lok Sabha polls are only a year away, Cabinet expansion has to take place for political balancing.

How Yogi was put in his place

It has now emerged that UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was denied the privilege of choosing a candidate of his choice from Gorakhpur lok Sabha seat. There is no denying the fact that last minute unity between the two arch rivals – SP & BSP- had surprised the BJP and situation was uncomfortable. Yogi wanted the party high command to give ticket a person of his choice. Instead, the high command sought three names from him. The Yogi sent the names but insisted that his first preference be accommodated. But to his surprise, state incharge of BJP Sunil Bansal recommended the name of Upendra Dutt Shukla. It transpires that same thing happened in Phulpur where Sunil Bansal vetoed the recommendation of Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. Insiders in the BJP say that the party's defeat served two political purposes; first being that Yogi who was flying high, has been grounded. “A person who cannot retain his own home constituency, how can he be brought in to the Parliamentary Board?” said a senior functionary. The BJP's parliamentary board has one vacancy after the elevation of M Venkiah Naidu as Vice President.

Jaitley's tough conditions delay Kejri apology

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is making frantic efforts to persuade Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to accept his unconditional apology and close the defamation case. It transpires that AAP's newly elected Rajya Sabha MP N D Gupta who is a noted chartered accountant, has held several meetings with Jaitley to sort out the problem. But Jaitley is in no mood as arguments in the trial court had been completed and judgment is awaited. Secondly, Jaitley is reported to have put some stiff conditions such as that Kejriwal should apologise from the same public platform which was used to make allegations against him and his daughter. Jaitley doesn't want merely written apology but a public apology on TV channels and at a public meeting. Jaitey is no Nitin Gadkari or Punjab Akali Dal leader Majithia who accepted Kejriwal's apology meekly. The last word on Jaitley-Kejri saga is yet to be written.

What's cooking between Rahul & Sharad Pawar ?

Congress president Rahul Gandhi is batting on the front foot and calling on party leaders seeking their cooperation. If sources are to be believed, he has spoken to most of the Opposition leaders over the phone including Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Sharad Yadav, Sitaram Yechury and others. But he held long parleys with Sharad Pawar seeking his cooperation and understand shape of things to come. It is clear that Congress-NCP will contest the Lok Sabha polls together and Pawar gave an in-principle approval for the same in Maharashtra. Both the parties will revert to the same seat-sharing arrangement that existed between the two parties before they parties company in 2014. The Chief Minister will be from the Congress party while NCP will have the post of Deputy Chief Minister in the event of alliance winning the state. The contours of alliance will be decided at a later date. But Rahul wanted Pawar to prevent division of Opposition votes in the states and expressed Congress willingness to make sacrifices.

No UPA type front in the offing

Sonia Gandhi may be holding parleys with the Opposition leaders over dinners. There may also be a talk that Sonia Gandhi may form a front of like-minded parties on the pattern of United Progressive Alliance (UPA). But Rahul Gandhi is in no hurry to create such a front. Rahul Gandhi feels that no such front is needed at this juncture and Opposition parties should work quietly. Secondly, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is working over-time to create a third front and speaking to regional satraps. While Sharad Pawar sees the light once again at the end of the tunnel in 2019 polls in the emergence of a third front. But having burnt his fingers in the past, he is sitting pretty and trying to expand NCP's base outside Maharashtra. For him, Maharashtra is the key and other states are a bonus. But Mamata Banerjee is banking on Pawar to create a third front as Mulayam Singh Yadav has been pushed into the background by his son who is busy in stitching alliance with Mayawati in UP. Akhilesh Yadav has signaled that Congress cannot be given more than 8-10 Lok Sabha seat in any seat-sharing arrangement for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The RLD may get 2-3 Lok Sabha seats while one seat may be spared for Sharad Yadav.

Two hour delay caused a flutter in HRD ministry

No one was in doubt that all the sitting eight Union Ministers will be re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha. But things didn't happen as contemplated. When general secretary incharge of BJP's Parliamentary Board and Union health Minister J P Nadda issued a press release at 9 pm, it contained the names of only seven ministers re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha. The name of savvy HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar was missing from the official press release. All hell broke and frantic calls were made to inquire about the fate of Javadekar. There was no response as to who will dare ask the PM or the BJP president Amit Shah. However, within two hours, second press release was issued announcing the name of Javadekar from Maharashtra. He was told that the party delayed the announcement as it was in the process of deciding whether he should be sent to UP or his home state of Maharashtra. However, the two hour gap was enough to cause a political flutter.

Fly on the wall : Rahul Shows up, steals the show

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Shows up, steals the show

The sea-change in Rahul Gandhi was clearly visible when the Congress president showed up along with his mother Sonia Gandhi in Parliament's Central Hall this session. If he was coy during the Winter session, he was a different guy this time. He was candid, brutally frank and didn't mince words. If his mother was economical with words, Rahul Gandhi spoke, spoke and spoke and every word was “on-record”. And he didn't stop despite Sonia Gandhi holding his hand and dropped the bomb, “I can tell you, they are not coming back. It will be a Modi-less government in 2019.” While Sonia tried to stop him but Rahul went on with assessment of political situation saying the Congress is set to increase its tally by extra 70 Lok Sabha seats and this is the minimum figure. He said by the same reckoning the BJP is set to lose at least 70 seats and no ally will accept Modi as PM with BJP getting 200 less seats. Rahul Gandhi's assessment was that it would either be an NDA government headed by someone like the current home minister (Rajnath Singh) or it would be a congress led government at the Centre as it happened in 2004. He said the party is set to increase its tally in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and also in Southern states. He also had a pun saying who would have imagined this scenario a year ago. Rahul Gandhi also made it clear that BJP was trying to divide the country and fight next Karnataka polls on the Hindutva plank. But they won't succeed. Sonia Gandhi's former Political Adviser was throughout with Rahul and Sonia and others virtually mobbed them.

Four Rajya Sabha seats in 4 states up for the grab

All eyes are set on four crucial Rajya Sabha seats in four states as they considered “Lose”. These four seats are up for grab to either highest bidder or a man who can swing political alliances. Of the 61 Rajya Sabha seats for which biennial polls will be held soon, these four seats are most crucial. The composition of state assemblies in the states of Bihar, Karnataka, UP & West Bengal is such that no single party can win on its own these extra seats and candidates will require extra skills to get into the Upper House.

Is Sharad Yadav Opposition candidate in Bihar?

In Bihar, if behind the scenes activities are indication, Interesting scenario is emerging for six Rajya Sabha seats. While the RJD will win two, the BJP-JD(U) combine will easily get five seats. The big tussle is for the sixth seats as Congress has just 27 MLAs in the house 243. The sixth candidate will require 40 first preference votes of the MLAs. Who can garner these 13 extra votes. It transpires that King Mahendra who is a six term MP of the Rajya Sabha and retiring, wants Congress to give him the ticket and he will manage extra 13 votes. He has earlier been all the parties in the state. But his game-plan suffered a set back with senior Opposition leader Sharad Yadav throwing his hat in the ring too. He recently met Lalu Prasad Yadav in jail along with Babulal Marandi of JVM. The Congress may also lend its support to Sharad Yadav and he will manage three CPI-ML votes and other smaller parties. The BJP-JD (U) are also working hard to divide the Congress CLP in Bihar to grab this extra seat.

Congress' dilemma in West Bengal

Of the five Rajya Sabha seats, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will win four easily as it has 212 MLAs in the House of 294. But a winner needs 59 first preference votes while the Congress has 42 MLAs. It will require the support of 17 extra MLAs which may come from the CPM (26) or 11 others. The Congress had offered the seat to Sitaram Yechury but his party doesn't want any truck with it. The issue is will the Congress seek CPM's support to win the RS seat or enter into some understanding with Mamata Banerjee. A search is on who can bring Congress-Mamata together again.

Whom Deve Gowda will oblige in Karnataka?

Of the four RS seats in Karnataka, Congress will win two seats easily with the support of its 124 MLAs. The BJP with the support of 44 of its MLAs may also manage to win a seat. But the fourth seat is considered lose as Janata Dal (S) of Deve Gowda has 40 MLAs and winner will require 56 votes. There are 16 Independents. Rajeev Chandrashekhar who is an Independent MP of the Rajya Sabha having won the seat with the support of JD(S) and BJP in 2012, may try his luck again.

9th seat is up for grab in UP

Biennial poll for nine Rajya Sabha seats will take place in UP and BJP with the support of 325 MLAs will get 7 seats easily. The Samajwadi Party will get one having the support of 47 MLAs. All eyes are now on the 9th seats which the BJP is determined to win as it is capable of garnering lose votes from Congress (7), BSP (19) and others (5). The Opposition parties can also get the 9th seat if they come together. Seach is on for a person who can unite them all.

Vasundhara Won’t be sacked

Various theories are doing the rounds how Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia lost two Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat with a record margin in Rajasthan and took the sheen off the BJP's campaign of Congress-Mukt Bharat. One theory is that the BJP's Central leadership which is against the Chief Minister did not help her. It was strange that several secular parties like the BSP, AIMIM etc who contested every Assembly seat in Gujrat and other byelections, did not field their candidates. It became a direct battle between the BJP and Congress. The BJP central leadership says she chose candidates of her choice and didn't listen when advised. However, the high command has decided not to remove Vasundhara. However, her wings will be clipped considerably and new BJP state unit chief will be sent. It is no secret that Modi-Shah don’t like her and this defeat has pushed her to a corner.

Modi-Shah team didn’t like P K Dhumal. Result, party won Himachal but Dhumal lost. A top leader said, “We don't remove our women !”

Didi may challenge Modi in 2019

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Since Narendra Modi bulldozed the parliament in May 2014, and repeated the feat three years later in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state, the opposition is overwrought with frustration. With the chances of its electoral recovery rather distant, it is unable to paper over the lengthening, and deepening, lines of its internal fissures. Like Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s exit from its camp; his JD(U) facing an existential crisis; or the CPI(M), which is convulsing with internal dissensions so deep that its general secretary Sitaram Yechury fails to get his party’s nod for returning to the Rajya Sabha with Congress support.

The opposition is hamstrung for other reasons too. Faced with BJP, RSS and their ideological challenge, the traditional ‘secular’ politician seems to have lost the plot. His response to incidents of serious cultural onslaught is feeble, at best. For example, no opposition party has worked out a coherent strategy to combat the Hindutva groups nursing their private militia in the name of cow vigilantes. They attack cow vigilantism as though it were the handiwork of extreme bigots sheltered by the Hindutva groups. But they have failed to present it as an integral part of an agenda to turn the religious minorities into second class citizens. Their bankruptcy surfaced when Congress workers attacked a BJP leader in Chhattisgarh responsible for cows death. On the rare occasions that Congress president Sonia Gandhi, or Rahul Gandhi, the vice president, comment on contemporary issues, they fail to strike a chord. While Rahul shoots and scoots, his mother has limited grasp of India’s social and civilizational issues. BSP supremo Mayawati, always shy to venture beyond Dalit issues has become even more tongue-tied. Down south in Tamil Nadu, ruling AIADMK and two other factions are getting sucked into the BJP rather than trying to redefine themselves in India’s political landscape after the end of multi-party rule. In Maharashtra, so total is the hold of BJP that Shiv Sena, its ideological sibling and local rival for power, outshines other opposition parties. In the states where the Congress is ensconced, such as Karnataka, there is not much certainty about its continuance.

In such bleak scenario for the opposition, two things are missing—leadership and strategy. Some of the opposition parties assumed that, in fighting BJP, the best strategy would be to forget past differences with the Congress and tie up with it. In Uttar Pradesh, former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav tried it, and paid heavily for that mistake. In West Bengal, the CPI(M), by fighting the 2016 assembly election jointly with the Congress, fell into the same trap.

With the passing of years, if there is a single opposition leader to cobble up a strategy against BJP’s divisive politics, she is Mamata Banerjee. The West Bengal chief minister is a master player of the caste and sub-caste cards. In 2011, she succeeded in putting the 34-year-old CPI(M) rule to an end my mobilising the subalterns against a party which, though highly regimented, had only higher castes in its upper echelons.

Her Bengal is in BJP’s crosshairs for a long time. During CPI(M) rule, there was no entry for the Hindutva politics as the state’s poor were entirely identified with the hammer-and-sickle. BJP thought that, following the Marxists’ exit, it may be able to polarize votes.

But the BJP’s strategy against Mamata Banerjee has not succeeded so far. It brought limited dividend in 2014 with BJP getting 16 per cent votes (only two seats). But the BJP share came down to 10 per cent in the assembly elections two years later. Banerjee ruled the roost as her deft ‘salami slicing’ of the state’s huge OBC and dalit population did not allow the BJP to herd all non-Hindus under the saffron shamiana. It is a strategy that has worked.

In India, with ‘forward caste’ population estimated to be around 25 per cent (that leaves three-quarters of the population comprising the entire panoply of OBC and dalit, plus minorities), it is tough for BJP, to win elections without support from a large section of non-caste Hindus. That explains why Modi, and party president Amit Shah, have been reaching out to those on the lower rungs of the caste ladder, with a Dalit being made the President of India. Ram Vilas Paswan, a Dalit, heads the LJSP, an important partner in the ruling NDA. During his tours aimed at the 2019 general election, Shah makes it a point to have lunch (well publicised) one day in a dalit home.

In India’s social fabric of mixed hue, it is not possible to win elections on the support of one or two castes. Mayawati, for example, won elections in Uttar Pradesh whenever she could broaden her appeal beyond the jatav community of dalits to which she belongs. But Mamata Banerjee’s appeal is subtler. It works on the ‘class animosity’ among castes, thus posing a challenge to the BJP strategy of appealing to an all-embracing Hindu identity. Last year, as there were minor skirmishes between Hindus and Muslims at Dhulagarh in Howrah district, BJP bent over backwards to give it a communal tinge but the Trinamool leader used a mix of her understanding of subaltern politics, and executive power, to deny BJP any leeway.

The answer to religious identity politics is the politics of subaltern identity. Nitish Kumar realised it as he introduced the mahadalit concept and re-embraced Lalu Yadav. But he has hung up his boots in opposition politics. In today’s scenario, if Modi’s BJP can face a serious contender in 2019, it has to be from Mamata Banerjee.

Ravi Shankar Prasad interview of the week

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Interview of the Week with Ravi Shankar Prasad, Union Law & IT Minister  

Law is taking its genuine course in probes against the corrupt

We can’t look the other way in corruption cases

India is free from cyber attacks, our systems are in place

Digital payment charges are being looked into

By Harish Gupta

Lokmat: Where do you stand on Triple Talaq now that the SC has heard it ?

R S Prasad: I will not make any comment now that the SC has completed hearing on its validity. But we have stated our views very clearly. Its not an issue related to any religion or community. It relates to gender justice, gender dignity, gender equality. After nearly 70 years of India`s Independence, the issue of right to live with dignity has been raised by a big segment of country. Our view is clear; It is unconstitutional and must go.

Lokmat: What is the alternate machination if the SC strikes it down?

R S Prasad: We will have to decide after the court judgment.

Lokmat: It is said that you may come out with Muslim Marriage Act?

R S Prasad: All these things are going on. I do not wish to make any comment. But surely the government is open to have a fair mechanism if it is needed.

Lokmat: But you have doing this lip service. Your party has done nothing for Muslims in terms of giving them tickets or positions of eminence ?

R S Prasad: This concern for dignity of women is not for Muslims. What is BETI BACHALO BETI PADHAO, What is Sukanya Samridhi Yojna which I am handling as postal department minister. Why is out of almost 7 Crores transactions in MUDRA 2/3 are woman. Of the nearly 40 lakh IT employees nearly 1/3 are women.

Lokmat: I was talking about giving them political recognition by your party?

R S Prasad:  May be you have a case that we ought to give them more tickets. But there I have differences and I am happy that you asked this question. But other parties symbolism ends by giving them tickets. The real issue is of denial of empowerment of the Muslim women. These parties maintain silence when it comes to their empowerment. 

Lokmat: So you are empowering Muslim women?

R S Prasad: Obviously. Now their voice is heard. Rajiv Gandhi ultimately surrendered despite having a massive majority in the Shah Bano`s case. But the Muslim women in India have got a strong leader in Modi who stands by them in their pain and agony.

Lokmat: You are needling your political opponents one by one by using state agencies in every state and also at the Centre?

R S Prasad: Did we tell Lalu Prasad`s sons to have big land in Delhi and Patna ? Did we advise his daughter to have huge farm houses through means which are questionable?

Lokmat: You have lodged cases against Mayawati’s Brother, congress leaders in Karnataka, Himachal, Haryana and other states ?

R S Prasad: Has any one been chased without any evidence? If there is a case against a Karnataka Minister and crores of rupees are found,  you want Income Tax dept to remain quite? If Mayawati’s brother`s issue is discovered by agencies, you mean to say they should look the other way.

 Lokmat: So you are saying that your CBI, ED, DRI, IT are not going after the opposition parties.

R S Prasad: Your allegation is incorrect that’s what I can say.

Lokmat: All kinds of allegations and probes are being made against Arvind Kejriwal. But why have failed to chargesheet him?

R S Prasad: We do not interfere in the work of any of these agencies.  The law is taking its genuine course without any pressure and without resorting to any manipulation.

Lokmat: You mean the whole lot of Opposition is corrupt?

R S Prasad: There are court rulings in cases where Income Tax is probing cases against high & mighty people, you know. Now they are forming grand alliance. Its nothing but the congregation of the corrupt.

Lokmat: You are selective in acting against political class.In Maharashtra you bitterly campaigned against corruption of NCP leaders like  Ajit Pawar. But did nothing against him ?

R S Prasad: I do not have the facts of the case presently. But the legal process is on against all of  them.

Lokmat: Cyber security is one of the biggest issues and you are handling it……..

R S Prasad: Digital India is changing the face of India now. Two Crore people are on BHIM app for digital payments and more than 20 crore transactions have taken place by linking 27 crore Jan Dhan account with mobile and AADHAR. We have saved more than Rs  50000 crores by directly transferring the monies into their accounts eliminating the middlemen.

Lokmat: But why the banks are still charging higher for digital payments? It’s a great concern?

R S Prasad: There is no charge on BHIM app. The AADHAR PAY which the PM had launched, there is no charge. For other UPI apps, the cost is zero. 

Lokmat: But banks are charging more for digital payments while cash is free of charge?

R S Prasad: Its very low and we are already looking into this issue.

Lokmat: And what about the cyber attacks & security?

R S Prasad: India, fortunately, is free today except a few isolated incidents in AP and in Kerala.

Lokmat: May be India was not targeted by hackers?

R S Prasad: No, not at all. From March-April we have taken enough steps to make our systems secure because we were planning to go digital in a big way.

Lokmat: You mean to say that you had advance information about these attacks?

R S Prasad: All I can say is that we took steps to tighten digital and cyber security systems. We installed PACT system. We advised all the banks and govt. departments to put strong systems in place.

Lokmat: Controversies with regard to Aadhaar refuse to die down. P Chidambram says it was conceived for Direct Benefit Transfer Scheme and was optional?

R S Prasad: The problem of Chidambram is that he is yet to reconcile that he is no more in power. We are doing what they didn’t have the courage to do. We laid Optical fiber network for 2.5 lakh gram panchayats today while they connected less than 100 villages.  We are not making it mandatory.... section 7 says no one shall be denied the right of benefit but you must alternatively come on the AADHAAR system. Who is unhappy? The Poor ? Some people are unhappy because there are no middlemen. I am surprised at Chidambaram’ statements.

Lokmat: So the sinking feeling that Chidambram is having and expressing through his articles is only for him and his party?

R S Prasad: It is completely personal….. why it is so… I will not go into those details. The whole country knows why he is having this sinking feeling. For the Congress, in-spite of getting 44 seats...  in-spite of reduced to single digit in UP... in-spite of a washout in one election after the other, the party is unwilling to learn lessons. It is seeking space in only editorial pages.... good luck to them.