Fly on the Wall : The “hug” was no fluke, Rahul scripted it

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The “hug” was no fluke, Rahul scripted it

Ever since Rahul Gandhi took over as Congress president, he is learning the ropes, rather fast. If he took the party and political observers completely by surprise by dropping big guns from the Congress Working Committee last week, he also sent out a clear signal that generational shift has come here to stay. Then came his “hug and wink” storm in the Lok Sabha during the debate on the No-Confidence motion. The debate on the No-Confidence Motion has been relegated into the background while “Hug & wink” continues to make columnists burning their mid-night oil. To top it all, Rahul Gandhi himself is sending out contradictory signals over the “hug & wink” events. He told NDTV the same day that the 'Hug” was a spontaneous decision as he had sat down after finishing his speech and later got up and moved over to Modi. The Wink was also impromptu. But when he met women journalists on Tuesday over high-tea at the India International Center (IIC), he told them that he was thinking about it for the past some time. Rahul didn't disclose further. But sources close to him said that Rahul Gandhi gave considerable thought to his “hug” plan. These sources also say that the inner core group of the party comprising of Sonia-Rahul & Priyanka did discuss the consequences of such an initiative. Sonia Gandhi was slightly worried that it may not be parliamentary protocol. But Priyanka Gandhi said Modi has broken every parliamentary protocol by not allowing a no-confidence motion (NCM) during the Budget session. The NCM is Opposition's birth right. But even that was over-ruled. Therefore, there is nothing wrong in the hug. Thus Rahul's thinking was converted into action on Friday. In fact, Rahul Gandhi's speech was so good that he was overwhelmed and sat down. Suddenly he realised that he had forgotten the planned “hug”. He got up again to the surprise of the Speaker and others and started speaking for less than a minute. Instead of taking his seat, he moved over Modi, hugged him and gave the PM his first shock. The headlines next day was the rare Hug and not the motion.

Rahul’s PM card

Ever since “sources” in the Congress Working Committee said to the media after the mega event that Rahul Gandhi would be party’s prime ministerial face, all hell broke. Until the CWC, Rahul Gandhi was sending clear signals that his aim for 2019 is to defeat Modi and not become PM himself. It was almost year and a half ago when he said in an informal chat with the a select group of journalists, myself included, that he is willing to wait until 2024 or beyond, but Modi must go in 2019. The sourced report did the damage as Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar etc became unhappy. This was also contrary to what Rahul Gandhi had discussed with Sharad Pawar during his three long interactions. But he undid the damage  on Tuesday when he told women journalists that anyone, Mamata or Maya, could be PM. The Congress will support any "non-RSS-backed Prime Minister" in 2019  Rahul said and added the priority was to defeat the BJP and end the climate of fear that has entered "our homes". Asked if the Congress was open to a woman Prime Minister, he said that anyone not backed by the RSS was acceptable. With Congress’ U-turn on the PM’s issue, the hearts of contenders are gladdened.

Mamata wooing Congress for tie-up

It is now clearly emerging that Congress will enter into some-sort of alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the TMC in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. While the CPM general secretary, Sitaram Yechury was keen to tie up with the Congress in West Bengal, things are not working out. One of the reasons is that Congress and the Left are arch rivals in Kerala. Congress strategists have also advised Rahul Gandhi that the Left parties, in any case, will support any combination of like-minded parties from outside. Therefore, let the Left parties go alone in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. It has some claim over 3-4 seats in other states which may be considered sympathetically later. But the Congress should go with Mamata Banerjee during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress has a legitimate claim over 7-8 seats in West Bengal out of 42 seats. But the TMC is willing to concede 5-6 seats with the argument that the strike rate of this combination will be very high. The TMC-Congress can combine is capable of winning 39 Lok Sabha seats as most of the cadre of the Left parties has either the BJP or the TMC. The TMC had won 34 and the Congress 2 Lok Sabha seats during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and both had contested separately. The BJP is targeting to win 21 seats in West Bengal on the back of anti-incumbency of Mamata, cow vigilantism, Hindu sentiments and Modi wave. Mamata is keen to join hands with the Congress too hoping to overcome this anti-incumbency and emerge as Consensus Prime Ministerial candidate.

The UP Seat-sharing formula

The SP-BSP have evolved a seat-sharing formula in UP and conveyed the same Congress & RLD. The formula is that  whosoever won or came second in the state during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, will get the those seats. As per this formula, the Congress can get 7seats while the RLD of Ajit Singh can stake a claim on two seats. The remaining seats will go to the SP-BSP. Now the young leadership surrounding Rahul Gandhi comprising of RPN Singh, Jitin Prasad and others want the party to be realistic and settle for 10 seats. On Tuesday, BSP leader Mayawati said she would join the Opposition alliance only if it gets a "respectable number of seats" to contest in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan elections and also in the Lok Sabha. Obviously, the BSP wants pie in other states before conceding even 10 seats to Congress. Hence, Rahul’s PM card.

Jayant Advani to contest from Gandhinagar ?

Jayant Advani, the only son of veteran BJP leader L K Advani had a long meeting with the Prime Minister last month. It so happened that when he was in his factory in NOIDA, his mobile rang and the PM was on the line. Jayant Advani met the PM and later Modi called on L K Advani along with party chief Amit Shah. The purpose of the visit was to understand if L K Advani would like to contest again in 2019 from his traditional Gandhinagar Lok Sabha seat or make room for someone of his choice. The BJP leadership is keen to explore all these contentious seats and in the process of deciding whether seniors above 75 years of age be repeated or their kith and kin be accommodated. While Modi is reported to have kept quiet, Amit Shah broached the subject if the octogenarian leader would like to contest. Advani heard them but reported to have said nothing.

Fly on the Wall :Ajit Singh, Raju targeted in Air Asia case

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Ajit Singh, Raju targeted in Air Asia case

The timing of CBI's action against Air Asia (India) Limited (AAIL), a joint venture between the prestigious Tata Sons Limited and others

surprised many in the corridors of powers. The fact that Air Asia case was hanging fire for a long time and no one was interested in pursuing it either considering the fact that TATAs were partners in the project and it also involved Tony Fernandes, a Malaysian businessman of India origin. But changed political situation brought sudden alacrity at the CBI headquarters and everybody was under fire irrespective of the status. It now transpires that two former Civil Aviation Ministers, Ajit Singh and Ashok Gajapati Raju, are also under the scanner in the case apart from some officials of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) who also cleared the proposal. The CBI say that Air Asia was granted critical permissions to fly on international routes in violation of laid down rules and procedures which were arbitrarily amended by the then ministers and officials. Incidentally, Praful Patel was not the Civil Aviation Minister and had made way for Ajit Singh of RLD who headed the ministry from December 18, 2011 to May 25, 2014. The Air Asia submitted applications to the FIPB in February 2013 and received a formal approval in April 2013, followed by the no objection certificate in September 2013 and an Air Operating Permit in May 2014 permitting it to start domestic operations in India. Simultaneously, a secret cabinet note was sent on 27 February 2014 to the cabinet to amend the existing 5/20 rule for operation of international scheduled in civil aviation. Tony Fernandes, wanted the airline to fly on international routes and local partner Tata Sons through its nominee Venkataramanan, was supposed to lobby to obtain government approvals including a FIPB clearance and an amendment to then prevalent 5/20 civil aviation rule. The 5/20 rule stipulated that international flying licenses could be granted to airlines with five years' of domestic operations and a minimum of 20 aircraft in their fleet. The civil aviation ministry had sent a clarification in the form of a supplementary note on 5 March 2014 to the cabinet to relax the rules. But it could not be done as Lok Sabha polls had been announced on 5 March 2014. Finally, the 5/20 rule was relaxed in June 2016 when Ashok Gajapati Raju of the TDP was the Civil Aviation Minister. The Air Asia probe was hanging fire as the government didn't want to needle either Ajit Singh of the RLD or Raju who was NDA partner until a couple of months ago. Now that Ajit Singh has aligned with SP-BSP-Congress and TDP parted company with the NDA, there was no reason for the government to put the probe on the back burner.

TRS plans to open Federal front office

The Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao seem to be in a big hurry. If reports are true, he is set to open Federal Front office in Delhi in June-July. He is so desperate to cement the front of non-BJP and non-Congress parties, that he has decided to open an office in Delhi at his official residence at 23, Tuglak Road itself. The sprawling bungalow in Lutyens’ Delhi has been allotted to the CM and his daughter, K. Kavitha, a member of the Lok Sabha. KCR decided to open the office to give a fillip to like-minded parties after he held back to back meetings with several leaders including M. Karunanidhi, M.K. Stalin, former UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, former Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, H D Deve Gowda and others. KCR would be visiting Bhubaneswar later this month to meet Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik and also visit Mumbai to meet Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray and NCP leader Sharad Pawar. TRS MPs in Delhi are trying to get an appointment with BSP leader Mayawati. But she is somewhat cool to the idea of a federal front itself. KCR is planning to hold a round-table conference with different parties and experts at the time of the office inauguration in New Delhi.

Rahul changes tack, hugs Jagan Reddy now !

Gone are the days when Rahul Gandhi was stubborn, inflexible and a poor listener. Over the past couple of months, Congressmen and callers on him are feeling a sea-change in the attitude and conduct of the new Congress president. Now all this a thing of the past and he is responding to calls, available to party leaders and even shunning his notions against some of the leaders. He principle is to stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi at all costs from returning to power during 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In order to achieve this objective, he is willing to walk an extra mile which he did in Karnataka to the surprise of the BJP leadership. He even installed Kamal Nath as president of the Madhya Pradesh unit of the party despite personal dislike. Recently, he has given the go-ahead to explore all possibilities to tie up with YSR Congress leader Jagan Mohan Reddy. The Congress party was virtually a pocket borough edition of YSR Reddy in Andhra Pradesh. However, the Congress leadership refused to accept Jagan Mohan Reddy as the automatic choice for the Chief Ministership. This finally led to the extinction of the Congress itself from the state. Now Rahul Gandhi has signaled that Congress is willing to do business with YSR Congress. As part of this strategy, Digvijay Singh has been divested of the charge of Andhra Pradesh and former Kerala CM Omen Chandy has been appointed general secretary incharge. Chandy was very close to YS Chandrshekhar Reddy. Rahul Gandhi is pursuing the same strategy in every state with the sole objective to dislodge the BJP and concede even the prime position held by the party.

Fly on the Wall : Mayawati, A tough player

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mayawati, A tough player 

The terms and conditions of political alliance arrived at between BSP supremo Mayawati and Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Singh are unfolding now causing acute embarrassment to all & sundry. The two leaders agreed that this alliance is limited to Parliamentary polls in May 2019 and not for the Assembly elections due in 2022. That Mayawati's party will contest 45 Lok Sabha seats while the SP will be given 35 seats. The constituencies will be decided is due course but the number is non-negotiable. Akhilesh Singh requested Buaji that the line of communications should remain open to which Mayawati nodded in agreement. However, Mayawati is now not available for talks and operates through intermediaries. Even when the question of putting up a joint Opposition candidate for Kairana Lok Sabha seat came up, Mayawati refused to meet. RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary wanted to contest the seat. Akhilesh Singh invited him to Lucknow to sort out the issue. Mayawati, instead of meeting them, sent a message that ticket be given to a woman Muslim leader who may contest on the RLD symbol. Since the Jats who dominate Kairana constituency, don't vote for Muslims, it will be a test of RLD's popularity among the Jats, she conveyed through messengers. If the RLD's Muslim candidate wins, it would be a proof that Jats voted for the RLD candidate. Left with no choice, RLD accepted the condition as the BJP is unwilling do any business with the RLD as its two tradition seats - Kairana & Baghpat – were captured by the BJP in 2014. 

Congress' pipe dream

Irrespective of Congress president Rahul Gandhi's declaration that he would be Prime Minister if his party emerges as the single largest party and Opposition parties come together, Mayawati is determined not to do business with the Congress. She had told Akhilesh Yadav during the seat sharing meeting that the Congress party has no political base in the state and its votes are also not transferable to the BSP or SP candidates. Sensing that Akhilesh Singh was keen to bring Congress on board, she said, “If the SP wants, it can shares seats with it from its quota of 35 seats. We are not going to spare a single seat for the Congress in UP.” Akhilesh Singh didn't react on this issue as it was he who had taken the initiative to enter into an electoral alliance with “Buaji”. He had  and even touched her feet during the first meeting to mollify her. Obviously, Mayawati is adopting a tough posture with the objective to negotiate Lok Sabha seats with the Congress in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and other states. The Congress wants 15 Lok Sabha seats in UP which neither SP nor the BSP will be willing to spare. Therefore, Rahul Gandhi's dream of making the single largest party cannot be achieved unless SP-BSP are willing to do business with it.  

BJP changes tack, avoid attacking Siddha, targets Rahul

After initially attacking Karnataka Chief Minister Siddharamiah and calling him names, the BJP leaders changed tack.  Modi had bitterly attacked Siddha while launching Karnataka poll campaign terming the state's Congress-led government a " Sidha rupaiya sarkar" (a government that directly takes money). BJP's leader after leader targeted Siddharamiah of looting the state and used all sorts of adjectives. But Modi suddenly changed tack and gone gone full tilt at Rahul Gandhi. Its the Congress president who is now bearing the brunt of  Modi's broadsides at election rallies of late. 

It is learnt that surveys had revealed that Kannadiga sub-nationalism was working on the ground and the Chief Minister was succeeding in invoking the regional pride. Siddaramaiah's efforts to hold up Modi and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath who are even seen as North Indians attacking a south Indian leader.

Thus, the campaign was turned into Modi VS Rahul and the PM is avoiding locking horns with Siddaramaiah. The BJP even started playing down the corruption charges against Siddha as BJP's own Chief Ministerial candidate commands no better record on this score. In fact Siddha is proving a nightmare for BJP on twitter and scoring with the each passing day in campaigning. Irrespective of the results, Siddha has emerged as the leader par excellence. 

Battle over re-naming college turns bitter

A relatively junior BJP leader who was once a party spokesman, Amitabh Sinha has challenged the authority of Human Resources Development Minister Prakash Javadekar. Sinha who was made chairman of the governing body of Dyal Singh Evening College, changed the name of the historic college as  Vandemataram Dyal Singh College. Since this created a political crisis, the Minister told him to reverse the decision. However, Sinha curtly told Javadekar that the minister had no locus standi on the issue. This has acutely embarrassed Prakash Javadekar who is camping in Karnataka as incharge of the BJP's campaign. Javadekar had assured the Akali Dal, a key ally of the BJP, that the sentiments of Sikhs would be taken care of. He even held a high-level meeting of the higher education secretary, the then chairman of the University Grants Commission, the vice-chancellor of Delhi University and other officials. Amitabh Sinha was told to hold a meeting of the Governing body to reverse the decision. The virtual revolt by Amitabh Sinha has caused a flutter. Javadekar reportedly complained to BJP Chief Amit Shah in this regard. The matter may be resolved after the polls. But it certainly brought out chinks within the ruling BJP.

A hidden agenda Behind arrest  

The arrest of Upendra Rai, a former editor-in-chief of the Sahara TV by the CBI caused ripples in political circles. It transpires that a case under stringent Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) may be invoked by the Enforcement Director shortly as the government is keen to fix Rai's political patrons. The Modi dispensation believes that Rai was able to make a killing due to his close links in the Finance and Home ministries. It transpires that he deposited Rs 57 crores in his various bank accounts and withdrew Rs 53 crores within one year period. The CBI went after Rai after Rajeshwar Singh, a senior officer of the Enforcement Director, lodged a complaint to the CBI. Though Rai was once close to Rajeshwar Singh but both fell out. It was Rajeshwar Singh who was reportedly promoting Rai and the latter had free access to key government departments including the ED and CBI. The tiff turned so bitter that Rai complained to the CBI against Rajeshwar Singh and a Preliminary Enquiry (PE)  registered by the CBI. As the probe began, Rajeshwar Singh went up to the Supreme Court and obtained a stay against the CBI probe. Later, Rajeshwar Singh lodged a counter complaint of blackmail and extortion against Rai with the CBI. The end result was that CBI registered an FIR against Rai and arrested him. Now the PMLA is being slapped. It is now learnt that the Modi dispensation wants to know who were the recipients of Rs 53 crores Rai withdrew from banks on various dates. The government suspects that Rai had links with Karti Chidambaram. The Modi government feels that Rai had the support of certain senior Congress leaders who held key positions in the government during the UPA regime.