Top Opposition leaders to attend swearing-in-ceremonies tomorrow

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Top Opposition leaders to attend swearing-in-ceremonies tomorrow

AAP to join the G-21 celebrations 

Rahul, Manmohan Singh, Sharad Pawar, Naidu, Kumaraswamy, Stalin to attend

Sonia to skip, Mayawati to send representative to Bhopal only  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec. 16

The swearing-in-ceremonies of three Congress Chief Ministers at Jaipur, Bhopal & Raipur tomorrow will herald a new era in Opposition unity when leaders of G-21 parties will travel to all three destinations. The G-21 is nick-named as the group of 21 Opposition parties who have come together to dislodge the NDA from the centre in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. Significantly, the untouchable Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been formally invited by the Congress to witness the swearing-in-ceremonies. Andhra Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu and JD (S) leader and Karnataka Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy along with his father H D Deve Gowda will attend the swearing-in-ceremony at all the three places.

As per plans, Ashok Gehlot will take oath of office tomorrow at 10.30 at Jaipur while Kamal Nath will be sworn in at 1.30 pm at Bhopal. Bhupesh Baghel will take oath at Raipur at 4.30 or 5 pm. Congress president Rahul Gandhi and former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh along with many opposition leaders including Sharad Pawar and Praful Patel, CPM's Sitaram Yechury, D Raja of CPI and others will fly in a chartered aircraft to all three destinations. Mayawati of BSP has expressed her inability to witness any swearing-in-ceremony. Following her was SP's Akhilesh Singh Yadav who will stay put in Lucknow. But both the parties will send their representatives to Bhopal where they have extended unconditional support.

Sonia Gandhi will not attend any of the swearing-in-ceremonies either due to health reasons. But M K Stalin of the DMK will join the events. All Congress Chief Ministers including Capt Amrinder Singh and other leaders will also be in toe there.

The Congress wants to show case the swearing-in- ceremonies as the victory of the Opposition parties and trying hard that BSP and SP should join the governments. 

ends  

India 2019, via Lucknow

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

For Narendra Modi, who stormed the Lok Sabha in 2014 with more than half the seats for his BJP, the ongoing state assembly elections--particularly that in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh--have come as a mid-term confirmation of his popular acceptance. His leadership style, however muscular, is fraught with controversy. His individual popularity may still be very high but what has dented is the general belief is his ability to be the harbinger of change in India's growth story. With economic growth stagnating and the social indices none too peppy either, it is not only that Modi's 2014 promise of 'achhe din' has become a popular joke. More significantly, doubts are being cast on his horse sense to choose the right administrative tool or select the right personnel in taking course-changing decisions. Recent scrapping of 1,000 and 500-rupee currency notes is an example. Its supposedly positive effect not clear to anyone so far, though Modi bragged at a recent poll rally that he took the great risk knowing fully well the consequences. But  the fact is that it has destroyed income streams of the poor, at least for first two quarters, if not for a whole year. The government has itself acknowledged its negative impact on GDP and the global community of economists and economic journals have expressed their strong disapproval. The latest is a thumbs-down by Financial Times’s Martin Wolf who called demonetization a “brutal tool” and said it got him “puzzled”. It’s a different matter that some in the government feel that Wolf has praised the step.

The decision, like many of Modi’s perplexing moves, may have explanations that he alone knows. But opposition parties argue that these are typical of a person who doesn’t to saner voices. Modi reads in every small election result a popular endorsement of his actions, like BJP claimed that its impressive tallies in the recent civic elections across Maharashtra denoted popular support of demonetization. The claim is obviously fanciful because the Congress collapsed in Maharashtra long ago and NCP became Modi’s pillion rider.  However, the election in Uttar Pradesh, a state the size of France and comprising a sixth of India’s population, offers large enough a sample to test the mood of the nation as far as the Prime Minister is concerned.

Besides, Uttar Pradesh is Modi’s electoral laboratory. Being Hindi-speaking, it offers an audience that best captures the nuances of his speeches. The state is a cauldron of the politics of communal polarization which is the trademark of BJP. It is now ruled by Samajwadi Party, a group known for its close nexus with the minority community. SP is now in electoral alliance with the Congress, which is Modi’s arch rival (despite Congress’ dwindling strength). It is true that BJP swept 73 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, but that election was about who’d rule India, Modi or the Congress. In the 2012 assembly election, the contest was about whether Akhilesh Yadav, the young son of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav, should lead the state government against “corrupt” Behanji. BJP fared miserably in that election.

As the present election results get announced on March 11, fingers are tightly crossed in both Modi and SP-Congress camps. It’s an intense poker game in which all bets are placed development. SP’s track record is somewhat deceptive as all development efforts seem to have focused on Akhilesh’s showcase project, the Lucknow-Agra Expressway, whereas the state is a goner on three counts: law and order, infrastructure and power. Expectations from Akhilesh are still high because, emerging as victor from a contest with his father and his cohorts, the Chief Minister’s campaign carries the implicit subtext. The subtext is that he has been ‘unshackled’ from his seniors’ spell and, if returned to power, would ‘modernize’ the state. But voters in general are skeptical and they understand how little a chief minister can perform without the Centre’s friendly pat and helping hand. And that’s where BJP’s hope lies in Uttar Pradesh.

For Modi, however, the road to Lucknow constitutes the first leg of his march for a second term in 2019. He tasted big-time assembly defeats earlier, in Bihar and Delhi, and the chances of BJP-Akali alliance  in Punjab are doomed. Even in Goa, Uttrakhand and Manipur, none is sure of BJP win. But Uttar Pradesh is a different kettle of fish. It is vast and complex; it is a mini-India in many respects. Modi’s victory in Uttar Pradesh will not only cramp the style of his rivals, who are used to blocking every move by him at the upper House, but recharge him with the courage to take unconventional steps in fixing some of India’s endemic problems. These problems, which are economic, political and diplomatic, are big and had been pushed under the carpet for too long. His war against corruption may be aimed at opening the Janampatris (horoscope) of his political rivals. But he believes that if corruption is curtailed, it will help improving the GDP growth. The Note ban move will fill government coffers and fear factor will force people to pay taxes.  

The most urgent economic problem is to find a solution to possible unemployment of highly educated Indians due to expected changes in the US visa regime as well as rise of big data analytics and Artificial Intelligence. The answer is to upgrade use of IT in India so that engineers returning from the US can lend their hand in a spectacular rise in productivity at home. But it calls for bipartisan efforts to make the necessary changes in labour and other laws. Politically, the biggest reform will come with simultaneous holding of parliamentary and assembly elections. It is a reform to which the BJP is committed but lacked the nerve. On the diplomatic front, Modi, like Atal Bihari Vajpayee before him, can leave his mark as the architect of a permanent solution to the Kashmir problem. At any rate, it requires Modi’s unquestioned authority to mould India’s foreign relations freely to suit the extremely volatile diplomatic atmosphere.

In other words, Modi needs authority to stand up to the next general elections. A victory in Uttar Pradesh may revitalize his authority. He must reach Lucknow if he can hope to return to Delhi.  

UP: Odds favour BJP?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Election to the 403-member Uttar Pradesh assembly is months away but its prelude is on. If Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi's on-going "Khat Pe Charcha" in the state giving him confidence to comment, "we are winning", the ruling Samajwadi Party is struggling to overcome biggest ever feud in the Yadav clan. The drama has considerably eroded whatever chief minister, Akhilesh Singh Yadav, had earned through his massive campaign. 

Akhilesh actually began canvassing several months ago, when the cash-strapped state government began to shower advertisements on newspapers and television channels blustering its achievements. The public spat between Chacha-Bhatija (uncle Shivpal Yadav and nephew Akhilesh Yadav) has shaken the very foundation of the 54 month old SP government. For BSP's Mayawati, the moment of action arrived apparently by accident, with scenes of bare-bodied Dalit cow-skinners being welted by supposed 'cow protectors' going viral on social media. Since then, on the question of who could be the best bet for the Uttar Pradesh sweepstakes, public attention is re-directed to Mayawati, the state's previous chief minister. And of course BJP is the looming omnipresence; only two years back, in the Lok Sabha elections, it captured 71 of the 80 seats and 42.30 per cent votes. 

But the 2014 parliamentary poll is different. At that time an atmosphere was created in which the nation thought it got itself in the vortex of a terrible economic and moral crisis, and Narendra Modi was projected as the saviour. The billion-rupee BJP campaign hit the country in 2014 like a thunderstorm that has blown away to a large extent. 

But has it? Or could it be that, in the state's vast caste cauldron, some changes that were simmering long since did reach the boiling point during the LS election? 

Before brushing aside BJP's 2014 victory in the state as purely one-off, it is necessary to consider the extent of Hindu polarization it witnessed. According to a BJP internal analysis, between 2009 and 2014, in Uttar Pradesh, BJP increased its vote-share percentage among various Hindu caste groups in the following order: Brahmin-57 to 72; Thakur-49 to 79; Yadav-6 to 27; Kurmi-26 to 56; Jat-21 to 81; Other OBC-20 to 60; Jatav-2 to 23; Other Dalit-8 to 60. 

It is clear that BJP was hugely successful in stitching up a common umbrella for all Hindus, not just for the upper caste, though its grip on Brahmins and, in particular, Thakurs, much strengthened. But what is nothing short of startling is the phenomenal rise in BJP's acceptability among Dalits and OBCs. From within Jatav, Mayawati's own Dalit sub-caste, support to Modi and BJP grew over 11 times in five years. Looks like a miracle, yet it has a background. 

After Independence, the dalit-upper caste antipathy raged so high that the former saw its destiny with Muslims rather than the Hindu community. "Jatav Muslim bhai bhai, Hindu kaum kahan se ayee?" This was the dalit clarion call in the post-Ambedkar years and it remained so for decades. Bharatiya Jan Sangh, the Hindutva party in its earlier avatar, saw this wall standing ahead but had no clue how to scale it. 

It began changing in the 80's, with RSS under the late Balasaheb Deoras holding all-caste dharma sabha across the state, and the Ramayan tele-serial helping forge a psycho-social sense of togetherness between upper caste and Dalit/OBC. However, it was not BJP but Mayawati who reaped the benefit of Dalits readying themselves to intermingle with others. In the 90's, she gave her BSP party, with elephant as its poll symbol, such memorable slogans like: Pandit shankh bajayega, Haathi badhta jayega. Her campaigns were a glorious exercise in what sociologist M. N. Srinivas called "Sanskritization". The 2007 Brahmin-Jatav alliance brought her to power. 

The magic failed in 2012 due to BSP losing the Brahmin support, and, with that, OBC and other social groups lost confidence in Mayawati. In Uttar Pradesh, Dalits including Jatav are 21 per cent of the population. As upper castes drifted to BJP, even Mayawati's Dalit constituency became wobbly. Or else it is difficult to explain her miserable performance in 2014 Lok Sabha poll in which she could not win a single seat. Besides, no caste is frozen in a static social frame. The state has 2.5 crore first-time voters. In every constituency, there are around 90,000 voters under-30. Rather than looking at life through the prism of caste, younger voters generally look for aspirational figures. In 2009, Rahul Gandhi was an aspirational icon. In 2012, Akhilesh Yadav was aspirational. So was Modi in 2014. And that causes cross-osmosis of voters across caste and community lines. 

In the run-up to the 2017 Assembly election which is very vital for the BJP for various reasons, Akhilesh's SP is not only weighed down with incumbency. Even its loyal followers, Yadav and Muslim, are baffled. As 2014 poll showed, even Yadavs leaned towards BJP. And Muslims are none too sure about the SP- SP-BJP secret ties. Moreover, there is very little in either SP or BSP that attracts the imagination of new voters. SP is perceived as backseat-driven by a bunch of old patriarchal fogeys, with Akhilesh as its deceptively smiling face. And BSP has lost its mojo after the upper-caste desertion. It stands lifeless, like Mayawati’s stone elephants. 

It is arguable that BJP too has lost its aspirational fervour. And, after its debacle inBihar, it has proved vulnerable, which is a major negative for getting support of fence-sitters. It may have succeeded in the North East and Assam. But it is facing waterloo in Goa and Punjab. Even in Uttrakhand, the BJP has internal problems. Therefore, Amit Shah has entrusted Goa to Nitin Gadkari and put his eggs in UP’s basket. Secondly, Modi still rules at the Centre, a fact that carries weight in the thinking process of ordinary voters, particularly in rural areas. Surveys have shown Modi’s own ratings are intact though party is unable to create leadership in states. If it failed in Bihar, it was because of strong leader. The same problem exist in UP too. The polarizing agenda being pursued by some of its wings may help in consolidating its upper caste vote bank. BJP may have the edge. But election in the state is still a far cry. 

In the run-up to the 2017 Assembly election which is very vital for the BJP for various reasons, Akhilesh's SP is not only weighed down with incumbency. Even its loyal followers, Yadav and Muslim, are baffled. As 2014 poll showed, even Yadavs leaned towards BJP.

RaGa WAITING FOR HIS MOMENT

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Be not afraid of greatness," goes the cliched yet profound line in The Twelfth Night, "Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and others have greatness thrust upon them."