Fly on the wall | Mamata's game of 50

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mamata's game of 50
The Game-2024 for the Lok Sabha polls has already begun. While the Congress Party is desperately working hard to revive itself and putting its entire might to win a couple of states in the ensuing round of Assembly polls early next year, the BJP is trying hard to defend its citadel in four states; UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. Punjab is being watched very closely as its an open game with pollsters predicting a win for the dark horse AAP though its early days. These polls are also crucial for some of the regional players like SP, and BSP who have been facing BJP's onslaught for the past seven years in UP. But for most of the regional Satraps in the East, West and Southern regions, these Assembly polls are not of much consequence.

In the East in West Bengal, Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is rather waiting for the Congress to suffer a setback. She knows that she is not a player in North Indian politics and remains unruffled as her honeymoon with the Congress is virtually over. She is now on her own trip with poll strategist Prashant Kishore advising her actively. If grapevine has it, she is now targeting to secure 50 Lok Sabha seats during the 2024 parliamentary polls as she can be a player in any non-BJP government formulation. This is a huge target considering her appeal confined to West Bengal with 42 Lok Sabha seats. She hopes to polarize the state the same way as Modi did in 2014 and 2019. Rather, she will have an added appeal to the voters saying; vote for me as I can be PM, a first Bengali. She may be anywhere between 34-37 Lok Sabha in 2024. But to win extra 13-15 seats, is an Herculean task. She is working hard to replace Congress in the North East comprising 22 Lok Sabha seats. She has already brought senior Congress leader Sushmita Dev into the party and was rewarded with a Rajya Sabha seat to influence voters in Assam and Tripura. She is also making a strategy to get a couple of seats each in Odisha, Jharkhand and even Bihar and enter into strategic adjustments with parties in states where Bengali voters are in large numbers.

The DarK Horse Uddhav
Until the other day, NCP Supremo Shaarad Rao Pawar was the only name that always cropped up for the post of PM probable. But knowledgeable sources say that unassuming Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray could be a new player in the Game-2024. He has changed the entire culture and ethos of Shiv Sena during the past two years in power. Uddhav is in the driver's seat and shown to the people how a coalition government is run. With no one around to take on the mighty BJP juggernaut Uddhav's style of working has given some hope as well. He has been a successful manager, measured in his responses, doesn't mince words either and knows when to keep quiet.

He is managing two very ambitious leaders, Sharad Pawar and Nana Patole with tremendous skill. Political pundits say if India gets a hung parliament, Uddhav is the man to watch. Uddhav has mastered the art of retaining his hard line Hindutva credentials and at the same time running a secular government without big jerks.

He continues to be close to the RSS, goes to Ayodhya, meets Modi and still keeps his secular partners happy. In addition, he also takes pride in his Maratha identity. The Sena has also shed its anti-minority violent image too. In a way, Uddhav Thackeray can be India’s first secular Hindu nationalist. It will be difficult for the BJP to use the minority appeasement bogey against a Hindu party. In addition, big corporate houses in Mumbai also like him. Interestingly, they are the same houses who bow before Modi in Delhi, But keep Thackeray in good humour in Mumbai.

Rising graph of Stalin
After two powerful southern leaders; K Kamraj and J Jayalalitha, failed to grab power in Delhi, DMK's M K Stalin is contemplating trying his luck. But he is not in a hurry and is slowly consolidating his position. He is looking beyond 2024 even if there is a hung house three years down the line. Poll strategist Prashant Kishore is a common factor between Stalin and Mamata Banerjee. If Mamata is targeting a 50 seats game, he is not far behind either. Currently, he is creating an identity raising issues like “federal structure” etc without talking politics directly. He is busy mobilising non-BJP Chief Ministers on key issues.

Prashant Kishore now takes a dig at Congress, says GOP’ problems deep-rooted

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
New Delhi, Oct 8

In a terse message for the Congress which is struggling to revive itself amid growing dissidence and onslaught by the ruling BJP, poll strategist Prashant Kishor joined the ranks saying, “There are no quick-fix solutions to the deep-rooted problems.”

Kishore went on to say that those looking for a quick revival of the grand old party-led opposition following the Lakhimpur Kheri incident are in for a big disappointment as there are no quick fix solutions to the "deep-rooted problems" of the party.

The crispy tweet sets at rest all speculations of his formally joining the Congress as general secretary incharge of its poll strategy.

Kishore had held long meetings with the three Gandhis since July including Congress’ interim president Sonia Gandhi and had given hope that he may now join the party and chalk out its poll strategy.

But he said, "Unfortunately there are no quick fix solutions to the deep-rooted problems and structural weakness of the GOP," he said.

Former Union minister and senior Congress leader M Veerappa Moily had gone on record last month voiced strong support for Kishor's induction into the Congress and said those opposing his entry into the party were "anti-reform". Kishor's tweet is being viewed by many as an indication that things may not be working out between him and the party leadership.

It may be mentioned that party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was in the fore-front of launching a blistering attack on the UP Government after four farmers were mowed down by an SUV in Lakhimpur Kheri. These incidents raised hopes of revival of the GOP in UP and elsewhere.

Lokmat had reported on September 30 that Congress-Kishore talks have failed and he may not join the party.

Fly On the Wall | A battle royal between two Chankyas

Fly On the Wall
by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A battle royal between two Chankyas

If all goes as per plans, the country may soon be on the cusp of a battle royal between BJP's Chankya Amit Shah and Opposition’s poll strategist Prashant Kishore, “PK”. Both were key strategists for Narendra Modi’s Prime Ministerial campaign in 2014 and fell out later. The Congress is on the verge of picking PK as its key poll strategist until the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. A decision is likely anytime next week. PK will not charge any fee for his services as he will be formally joining the Congress. He has told the three Gandhis that if inducted, he will oversee the party's poll strategies in all the elections leading up to 2024. He said the situation can be retrieved in Punjab and Uttarakhand is winnable if the right kind of strategy is adopted. But he would like to make a big beginning with Gujarat and Karnataka where Assembly polls will be held in November 2022. The BJP and Congress are in direct contest in these states. The BJP can be defeated in its home turf in Gujarat after 27 years of being in power. Before inducting PK, Sonia Gandhi wants the stamp of approval of all CWC members. The party men are happy that finally Rahul Gandhi is listening to somebody and may act on his advice.

Why PK fell out with Shah

Though 'PK' was part of Modi’s core team in the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Modi was so impressed by PK’s skills that he was allotted a place on the top floor of the CM's residence itself. PK had also given Modi a blueprint to overhaul the bureaucracy on the US pattern where thousands of officers come and go with the new Presidents. When Modi asked PK what role he would like to play, the latter wanted to be named as BJP's Poll Strategist. If there could be a general secretary (organization), why not general secretary (poll strategy)? Modi was willing to consider but Amit Shah nixed it soon after taking over as BJP Chief. Modi dithered and PK moved out. Amit Shah and PK were face to face for the first time in Bihar and Delhi Assembly polls in 2015 and BJP was decisively defeated. But PK didn't get the desired credit. The victories in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh were discounted as BJP was a junior partner in these states. PK also tasted failure in 2017 in UP. His golden moment came seven years later when he trounced Amit Shah in West Bengal in 2021 in a big way. It was a huge setback for Shah and a beaming PK claimed “he is BJP’s overrated Poll Manager.”

Disquiet in RSS

There is disquiet in the RSS these days. A top RSS leader put it very aptly: “Aajkal prasannta ka vatavaran nahin Hai.” (Nowadays, the atmosphere is not pleasant). He did not elaborate but the disconnect between the BJP and the RSS is clearly visible. The RSS was not happy with the way the government handled CAA and three Farm Acts and the talks should have been held. The recent Cabinet reshuffle widened the gulf as wings of Nitin Gadkari were further clipped when the MSME ministry was taken away.

As if this was not enough, most of the recommendations of the RSS for new inductions were ignored. The RSS Chief, Mohan Bhagwat’s statement that the government and Society, both, have to understand and learn lessons from the Covid pandemic, was seen as an oblique criticism of the government.

But the Pegasus telephone tapping scandal that rocked governments world over, created a major disconnect. It has surfaced now that telephone numbers of many RSS functionaries including a senior one were under watch. It is learnt that a top-most officer of the Modi dispensation visited Chitrakoot where Pratinidhi Sabha was being held in the second week of July. The meet was significant as it came much before the Pegasus snooping scandal officially surfaced on July 18. He had a long chat with RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat. What transpired between them is not known. But many say that the tweet of Subramanian Swamy on July 18 morning that tapping the phones of PM Modi’s cabinet ministers, RSS leaders and others will be disclosed soon. Obviously, this person was sent to Chitrakoot on a fire-fighting mission as the government knew beforehand that such a scandal may surface. An insider said, “the gulf has widened since then.”

The New “King-Makers”

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The New “King-Makers”

50 MP s of BJD, TRS, YSR make new PM 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Feb 6

If pollsters believe that Mamata Banerjee (TMC) or N Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) or Mayawati (BSP) will be the “king Maker” in a hung Lok Sabha after the 2019 polls, they may be sadly mistaken.

The new King Makers on the horizon are three non-aligned parties; Biju Janata Dal (Odisha), YSR Congress (Andhra Pradesh), and Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (Telangana) who are likely to get 45-50 Lok Sabha seats and play a crucial role in the formation of a new government if the BJP is restricted to 200 seats mark.

These three parties have decided to stay neutral and go it alone in the Lok Sabha polls. According to pollsters, YSR Congress is virtually sweeping the state of Andhra Pradesh which has 25 Lok Sabha seats. The YSR Congress is an off-shoot of the Congress Party and was formed when Y S Jaganmohan Reddy revolted after the tragic death of his father in a plane crash. He is expected to win at least 15-17 Lok Sabha seats. One of the reasons for Chandrababu Naidu to quit the NDA was his suspicion that BJP is hob-nobbing with the YSR Congress. Another indication of YSR Congress's friendly ties with the BJP is that Prashant Kishore is working with the party as its poll strategist. Jagan Mohan Reddy has already given Kishore a huge commercial space at Banzara Hills and he is running his poll campaign. K Chandrarao Rao is a known Modi Bhakt.

Similarly, the TRS headed by Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao is expected to win 15 Lok Sabha seats out of 17. He recently swept the Assembly polls and showed his popularity with the voters. The Congress and the BJP are contesting all 17 seats in the state. But pollsters believe that both the parties will draw a blank.

The Biju Janata Dal headed by Odisha Chief Minister is likely to win anywhere between 15-17 seats. During the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJD had won 20 out of 21 seats while the BJP won one seat and the Congress drew a blank. The BJP is so desperate to placate Naveen Patnaik that it dumped B J Panda, who had resigned his seat to join the BJP. Panda is now sulking and left high & dry. Even Prime Minister Modi who was toying with the idea of contesting from Puri Lok Sabha seat in Odisha and take on Pantaik decided to look the other way.

The fact that Naveen Patnaik's sister Gita Mehta was offered Padma Shri by Modi, though she declined later citing wrong political message, is an indication that there is some tacit understanding between BJD and BJP.

The third indication of bon homie is that the CBI has gone silent in Odisha though BJD leaders were equally involved in the Chit Funds scam.

So this block of 50 Lok Sabha seats in a house of 543 will play a very crucial role if the BJP doesn't cross the 200 seats mark. The NDA parties (Shiv Sena, Janata Dal (U), LJP, Apna Dal, Akali Dal, AIADMK) are expected to get another 25-30 seats. Thus, PM Modi will need new “King Makers” to chip in a post-poll scenario.

Ends 

'Jayam Dehi'

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

It is certainly not the way that an eminent party, having gone to seed lately, should give itself a makeover. Last week, when Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi gave kick start to his four-week-long, 2,500-kilometre flamboyant travel in Uttar Pradesh, a clever strategy went for a toss in the most unexpected manner. It was the idea of strategic planner Prashant Kishore, engaged by the Congress, to focus the campaign on farmers" distress, particularly their rising indebtedness, and get Rahul to hold close meetings with villagers seated on "charpai", or wooden cots, instead of addressing the usual rallies. That was supposed to make the Gandhi scion re-emphasise his earlier charge that Prime Minster Narendra Modi"s administration is "suit boot ki sarkar". Charpais, it was thought, would set the intimate tone for Rahul"s "kisan yatra" covering 223 assembly segment across the state"s 39 districts.

Rahul Gandhi elevation deferred again

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive 

Rahul Gandhi elevation deferred again

No AICC session for now

New Delhi, June 14

The anointment of Rahul Gandhi as Congress president is understood to have been delayed again; so it seems. Though clamour for Rahul's elevation is growing in the party. But it has now been delayed again. 

Highly placed sources in the Congress say that the AICC session to elevate party’s vice president to the president’s post, will not be held at least for the next two months.

“The AICC session may now be held sometime in August end or September,” said a senior party functionary on the condition of anonymity.

These sources say that no useful purpose will be served by elevating Rahul Gandhi as he is already taking major decisions in the party. What Rahul Gandhi has lately realized that the team he trusted during the past two years did not deliver. Madhusudan Mistry who was even rewarded with a Rajya Sabha seat failed to infuse confidence within the UP unit of the party. The bitter battle with the BJP and other parties is being fought in UP and Mistry was unable to coordinate with Prashant Kishore, Rahul’s strategist.

The return of Ghulam Nabi Azad as incharge of UP and Kamal Nath for Haryana and Punjab signals that Rahul had to fall back on Sonia Gandhi’s loyalists only.

Rahul has realized that the Haryana Congress unit is in disarray particularly after the huge set back in the Rajya Sabha polls. He also  knows that party will be crippled without Bhupinder Singh Hooda who was Chief Minister for ten years. Though it is clear that 13 MLAs allegedly close to Hooda used a different marker pen to cast their votes. But the situation has to be retrieved.

Since Kamal Nath has never been Rahul Gandhi favourite  and had been dumped by him during the past two years, his sudden rehabilitation signals that Sonia Gandhi is playing more active role.

Kamal Nath is senior to Hooda and rather had helped him when the latter needed him. Similarly, Kamal Nath will have to keep Capt Amrinder Singh under check. He becomes uncontrollable. Kamal Nath has been his Doon school buddy and original Rajiv Gandhi era friends. The high command is aware that Congress is capable of winning Punjab and doesn’t want to wither away the prospects.

These sources say more changes may be in store in the party and general secretary C P Joshi who handled Assam elections may be given another responsibility. It seems that the party wants to focus on ensuing Assembly polls in five states early next year rather than elevating one Gandhi with another.

HAND IN HAND WITH RED FLAG

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Garm Hava (Scorching Winds), M. S. Sathyu’s 1973 film was about the dilemma of a Muslim family over migrating to Pakistan post-Independence, ends with the patriarch, played by Balraj Sahni, deciding to stay back in India. As id this was not enough, he also decided to join the communist movement against the ruling Congress, amidst the slogan yeh azaadi jhooti hai (”this freedom is a sham”). Since then, and even earlier, the Congress and communists have remained at polar removes, representing not only two different ideas of India but conflicting views on everything, from property ownership to role of state and democracy. Over the decades, and particularly due to the rise of Hindutva politics under the BJP, their distance has got narrowed but the core difference persists, and so the refusal of their leaders to share power. In 1996, the CPI(M) central committee prevented its senior leader and West Bengal chief minister Jyoti Basu from being sworn in as Prime Minister, predominantly because of his top comrades’ objection to their party becoming dependent on the Congress. The composition of the lower House at that time was such that the Congress could pull the rug from under the government’s feet any time it pleased.

However, it is the recent assembly election in West Bengal, ending on May 5, that has finally bridged the gulf between the ‘hand’ (symbol  of the Congress) and the red flag of communists. How the alliance will fare is anybody’s guess, May 19 being the scheduled poll counting day. Still, it is an unusual bonding tied by pressure from the ranks, not imposed from above. Congress president Sonia Gandhi was reportedly not much in favour of the idea of a communist-dominated alliance in Bengal where her party had remained number two for decades. But Rahul Gandhi, the party’s vice president, who was not given to such niceties, readily addressed rallies in Kolkata with former CPI(M) chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee by his side, and forests of clenched fists being raised in front of him with the slogan, comrade Rahul lal salam.  It was first time after Independence that a Gandhi scion was hailed as “comrade” by a predominantly communist rally.

 Can it be the harbinger of an enduring and electorally tenable centre-left coalition in India? Why not? The Congress, despite its corruption-tainted image for a long time now, has steadfastly held on to its socialist policies, which got a marked boost in the 10 years of UPA rule due to Sonia Gandhi’s hallmark programmes, like MGNREGA and Food Security Act. But, despite its left-leaning core ideology, the Congress remained without allies as caste-based politics had come to rule the roost. In the Nineties, BJP, with its Hindutva politics, added a new dimension to it. Since then Congress has been left with no regional allies worth the name. The Congress-left alliance, if it spreads across the nation, will have the potential of an anti-elite and pro-poor coalition. It is like turning the clock of history back to where it would have rightfully belonged, in a society divided by class. And it doesn’t matter if it is divided by caste too.

    It is natural that BJP will not be pleased if the Congress-left alliance puts up a stellar performance in Bengal. But even a fairly decent tally of, say, around 100 seats (in a house of 294) will bring a new momentum and push the envelope, particularly for the Uttar Pradesh election next year. CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury is working hard to create a nation-wide non-BJP alliance wherever feasible. Rahul Gandhi is extremely comfortable with Yechury and both agree that road to Delhi goes via Lucknow. Neither Rahul nor the Left trust Mulayam Singh Yadav anymore as he has ditched secular forces six times in the past. It is learnt that poll strategist Prashant Kishore, regarded as the architect of Modi’s election in 2014 as well as that of Nitish Kumar in Bihar last year, is insisting on the party rallying behind a “face”, be it of Rahul, or his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The advice has a lot of substance as even the elite classes, who supported Congress in the past and have now gone mostly to BJP, can respond to their old links only if a member of the party’s leading family agrees to launch his (or her) march to Delhi from Lucknow.

But the elites cannot win an election on their own. The local parties with their caste identities do not trust Congress. Nor is the party held in great trust by Muslims, who constitute 17 per cent of the population of Uttar Pradesh. The left can be a powerful adhesive to glue the regional parties and communities together to Congress. In other words, the left can function as a catalyst in the coalition-building process. It is win-win for regional parties too. Take, for example, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar who is working hard to get a leadership slot in UP’s anti-Modi space but hasn’t made much headway yet. A future coalition in the state spearheaded by Congress, and guaranteed by the Left, can offer at least three territorial players—Nitish’s JD(U), Lalu Prasad’s RJD and Mayawati’s BSP --an opportunity to take part in the governance of India’s largest state.

 

The 131-year-old Congress still has substantial brand value. But it has no friends. Despite Sonia Gandhi’s pro-poor programmes, it failed to forge lasting ties with the toiling masses. But the rally for “comrade Rahul” in Kolkata’s Park Circus maidan on a sizzling summer afternoon may pave the way for the party to unshackle itself at last, and win back the poor man’s trust that it has forfeited.