Kejriwal summons National Council meet tomorrow

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Kejriwal summons National Council meet tomorrow

Nursing Big ambitions, But cautious to step out again

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Feb 15

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal will hold National Council meeting tomorrow after the swearing-in-ceremony at the Ramlila Grounds to discuss Aam Aadmi Party's expansion plans outside the national Capital.

The Council meeting involving state and district level coordinators will deliberate on expanding AAP's national footprint.

The AAP leadership feels that the Congress is collapsing faster than expected and its voters and cadres are disillusioned. Therefore, its time to seize the opportunity and woo them.

The AAP has considerable presence in Punjab, Maharashtra and couple of other states. But even this base has dwindled during the past couple of years. Kejriwal is also pursuing soft Hindutva and seek votes in the name of governance & development. But lack of unity among the anti-BJP regional parties is boon for PM Modi & BJP.

These regional satraps are unwilling to join hands with the Congress for one reason or the other and the Congress is unwilling to accept the leadership of any of the regional leaders. There was a time when Congress was talking to Nitish Kumar to join hands to fight the BJP. But somehow the plans fell through.

It is in this context that Arvind Kejriwal sees an opportunity to emerge as an acceptable face who is non-controversial, non-corrupt and did not attack Modi or Rahul Gandhi personally. The CBI had even raided his office. But could not make out a case.

Therefore, an astute politician that Kejriwal is, he wants to gauge the mood of national council members tomorrow before taking the next step.

The first focus of the AAP will be Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) elections due in 2022 which is ruled by the BJP for the past 15 years and Punjab Assembly polls to be held the same year.

Kejriwal is of the considered view that his party is not prepared to play any significant role in Bihar polls due in August 2020 and West Bengal, Assam, Kerala & Tamil Nadu in 2021. However, it may try its hands in Puducherry where Kiran Bedi is Lt. Governor who faced a humiliating defeat at the hands of Kejriwal in 2015 polls.

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Kejriwal turns Devout Hindu, gets Muslim votes

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

News cum analysis

Kejriwal turns Devout Hindu, gets Muslim votes 

Alarm bells for BJP as Opposition rejuvenated  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Feb 11 

The AAP's spectacular second sweep in a row in Delhi Assembly elections today has given the reverse “current” to the BJP leadership. The BJP which had made Shaheen Bagh as its main poll plank and fielded motormouths in the campaign to divide voters, will have to re-invent strategy to win Delhi. The 22 year long drought for the party in national Capital has been a huge pain in its neck and nothing worked for it since 1998. In 2015, the BJP even imported a rank outsider, former IPS Kiran Bedi, as its chief ministerial face ignoring the legitimate claim of party veteran Dr Harsh Vardhan. She suffered a humiliating defeat herself and the party sank to worst ever tally of three out of 70 seats. In 2020, the BJP leadership decided not to project any local leader for the post of Chief Minister against mighty Arvind Kejriwal and Amit Shah personally led the campaign from the front. A conscious decision was taken to grab the 'Shaheen Bagh indefinite dharna' by women folks and arouse Hindu sentiments in the city. More than 20 Union Ministers and 200 plus party MPs were pumped into the campaigning for 30 days. It was a “carpet bombing” Amit Shah is known for. He personally distributed leaflets in several colonies and hoped to turn the election. 

However, Arvind Kejriwal stuck to his development model and shunned Shaheen Bagh completely. He didn't utter a single word against Prime Minister Modi or even Amit Shah. He made all the right noises and even grabbed the Prime Minister's slogan “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas”. Simultaneously, he went on chant “Vande Matram” and visited Hanuman Temple to send the message to the nationalists and Hindus that he is part of them. He addressed several Town Hall meetings on TV channels and ducked all national issues. Yet, the Muslims saw in him a new saviour as Congress was no where to be seen or heard.

The underlining message of Delhi polls is the emergence of two party system relegating Congress to a position of complete insignificance. The Congress had no strategy and Rahul Gandhi went over-board when he went to address a public meeting saying, “The youth will beat him with a stick in six months as they are not getting jobs.”

The BJP committed the cardinal mistake of attacking the Congress. In the process, the party's votes went to the AAP furthering the prospects of Kejriwal.

Kejriwal proved himself as an astute politician and termed his victory by chanting “Bharat Mata ki Jai”. The BJP cannot target him for being anti-Hindu. Last but not the least, the BJP will have to revert to development model of the PM dumping the politics of hate. It will now have to look at Bihar Assembly polls more carefully and cannot take victory for granted. The location of one Shaheen Bagh may be shifted. But Kejriwal's win has given a new fervor to the entire Opposition.

Amit Shah takes big risk in Delhi polls battle

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Amit Shah takes big risk in Delhi polls battle

Fields news comers, banks on Modi charisma

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 24

The PM is likely to address a series of rallies in the Delhi Assembly polls beginning February 1 after the presentation of the Union Budget in the Lok Sabha.

If sources are to be believed, the PM will address 5-6 rallies in February depending upon the mood and response of the people. A massive mobilisation is on to launch full onslaught against the Kejriwal government in the Capital and grab power after a drought of 20 years.

The top BJP leadership decided to bank on the Prime Minister's charisma and popularity in the Assembly polls rather than projecting anyone for the post of the Chief Minister. So much so that the BJP leadership abandoned its plan to field Manoj Tiwari, Gautam Gambhir, Meenakshi Lekhi, Vijay Goel and a couple of other well known sitting MPs. The leadership felt that if the election is to be fought in the name of Modi, then why make sitting MPs to contest for the Assembly.

As if this was not enough, the party picked up several fresh faces to fight the AAP and the Congress. It fielded a completely newcomer and unknown Sunil Yadav against Arvind Kejriwal to show to the seniors that they are no more needed for the local polls.

In fact, Vijay Jolly, Aarti Mehra, Ajay Malhotra, son of former Delhi Chief Metropolitan counciller Vijay Kumar Malhotra, Harish Khurana, son of Madanlal Khurana's son, Sudhanshu Mittal were told to campaign rather than contest.

While acknowledging that the party faces an uphill battle, the leadership also feels that Modi's campaign wil, tilt the balance in favour of the BJP. The “momentum is in party’s favour”, claimed a senior functionary saying saying the agitation by the Muslim women at Shaheen Bagh against the CAA has galvanized the BJP workers and its sympathizers.

The BJP leadership is also of the view that a division on the communal lines is being tested in Delhi where the party has been out of power for past 20 years. The party's campaign command and ticket distribution command has been taken by the Union Home Minister, Amit Shah into his own hands. In fact, it is Amit Shah who held a rare road show yesterday in the Capital for the Assembly poll and devoted more than four hours campaigning.

With a bold Union Budget in the offing coupled with a series of welfare scheme launched, Modi-Shah team will be able to tilt the balance in BJP's favour.

Dilemma grips BJP on fielding sitting LS MPs

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Dilemma grips BJP on fielding sitting LS MPs

Searching formidable candidate against Kejriwal

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 18

The BJP leadership is in a serious dilemma whether to field some sitting Members of the Lok Sabha for the Delhi Assembly to take on the Aam Aadmi Party. Earlier it was toying with the idea of fielding all the seven sitting Lok Sabha Sabha MPs including Union Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan for the Delhi Assembly seats. This thinking evolved as many felt that the party should put its best foot forward. But suddenly the party developed cold feet and now it is contemplating to field only three Lok Sabha MPs in the Delhi Assembly battle.

According to highly placed sources, Dr Manoj Tiwari, president of the Delhi BJP, Parvesh Varma, son of former Delhi Chief Minister Sahib Singh Varma and Ramesh Biduri are keen to contest for the Assembly polls and conveyed their desire to the party high command accordingly. Vijay Goel, former Union Minister and ex-president of the Delhi BJP and sitting Rajya Sabha MP, is also determined to contest for the Assembly polls. In any case, his Rajya Sabha term is expiring from Rajasthan in April and its time, he returns to the local Delhi politics.

Earlier these leaders wanted them to be projected as chief ministerial face of the party. When the party told them that this can't be accepted, they still want to contest for the Assembly to take on the AAP.

The party is also looking for a candidate who can be pitted against Arvind Kejriwal from the New Delhi constituency. Meenakshi Lekhi, two times Lok Sabha MP from New Delhi constituency was sounded to contest against Kejriwal. But she was not inclined though if ordered will obey.

The party has announced the names of 57 candidates so far and nine more are yet to be announced. Four seats have been allocated to its ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). The BJP has three MLAs in the Delhi Assembly and the Modi-Amit Shah team wants to snatch the Assembly after loosing the battle for past 22 years.

BJP struggling to formulate winning strategy

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special Report 

BJP struggling to formulate winning strategy

As Kejriwal Praises Modi, supports Article 370

Javadekar working overtime to turn tide  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Sep 15

The BJP leadership may be on 7^th Heaven in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand going to polls in October-November. But its plate is full of problems when it comes to Delhi.

Sensing trouble ahead, the party has replaced Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman with senior leader and Cabinet Minister Prakash Javadekar, as incharge of Delhi affairs. Though Assembly polls are five months away. But Javadekar is holding district wise meetings seeking suggestions to formulate a winning strategy on a daily basis. The BJP has not won Delhi Assembly for the past 21 years.

The challenge before the party is how to counter the sops and freebies offered by Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Javadekar has advised the local leadership not to unnecessarily criticise Kejriwal’s welfare schemes. The level of anti-incumbency against the Kejriwal government is still being assessed. The BJP is also baffled as to why Kejriwal has stopped criticising Prime Minister Narendra Modi by name for the past couple of months. The AAP even voted in favour of abrogation of Article 370 in Parliament.

The BJP's another serious problem is whether it should project a chief ministerial candidate during the assembly polls or make it BJP vs Kejriwal. The BJP had burnt its fingers when it projected Kiran Bedi as CM face and lost badly in January 2015.

When a BJP leader, who wanted relief for residents of unauthorised colonies, Javadekar advised them not to talk to the media on the issue. The government was alive of it and responding, he said. Unauthorised colonies are a major vote-bank in Delhi, as they are home to 30-35 per cent of the city’s population.

Javadekar directed the local leadership to launch a full-blown attack on the Congress over corruption and Chidambaram the poster boy of the Congress. The BJP suspects that Congress and AAP will have some tacit understanding and wants to convert it into an opportunity.

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Gadkari ministries get drubbing in funds

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A Lokmat special report

Gadkari ministries get drubbing in funds 

Namami Gange budget cut drastically 

"Har Khet Ko Pani" gets Rs 1178 crore shocker  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Feb 9

Road Transport, Shipping, Water Resources and Namami Gange Minister Nitin Gadkari may have earned applause across party lines for his performance. But his wings have been clipped by none other than the Prime Minister Narendra Modi when it came to granting funds for  Namami Gange project and Irrigation.

In 2017-18 when Gadkari took charge of the ministry from Uma Bharti, the Namami Gange project was granted Rs 700 crores. Next year i.e. 2018-19, government allocated a whopping Rs 2300 crores to the ministry so that Ganga can be cleaned before the Lok Sabha polls. However, the ministry could spend only Rs 750 crores only as most BJP ruled states were lukewarm to clear sewage projects.

Even during 2019-20 Budget presented by Piyush Goyal, Namami Gange project was granted Rs 750 crores only. Interestingly, the PM's most ambitious irrigation scheme “Har Khet Ko Pani” saw a drastic cut in funds. While Rs 2018-19, the government had granted Rs 2181 crores to the Gadkari's ministry which spent it too, this year (2019-20) only Rs 903.92 crores were given.

While the government blamed Gadkari for the slow implementation of the projects, Gadkari said that most of the sewage projects fall under the BJP ruled state governments of UP, Uttrakhand, Himachal, Jharkhand, Haryana etc. The worst performer is UP itself where only 11 of the 43 projects could be completed. The pace has not picked up even after Yogi Adityanath government came to power in early 2017. In Bihar, not a single project out of 26 could be completed though Nitish Kumar is an ally. The  Arvind Kejriwal government of Delhi did not complete any of the 11 sewage projects. However, things have started moving after Gadkari personally requested him to do so.

Even as an estimated 5 crores pilgrims took a dip at the confluence of the Ganga, about 2,782 million litres per day (MLD) of sewage continues to flow into the Ganga. Of the 136 sewage projects planned across eight States to create 3,252.28 MLD sewage treatment capacity at a cost of Rs 20,623 crore, only 31 projects with a capacity of 468.19 MLD have been completed.

Of the total treatment capacity created, the share of new projects is just 0.06 MLD, while that of old projects is 468.19 MLD. About 887 MLD capacity has been created through ‘rehabilitation’ of old STPs.

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Is It Modi VS Shatru in Varanasi ?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Is It Modi VS Shatru in Varanasi ?

Opposition parties pitching a Joint candidate in 2019 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 22

The Opposition parties are contemplating pitching a joint candidate against Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency this time.

If sources in the top echelon of the Opposition are to be believed, rebel BJP leader Shatrughan Sinha has been sounded to take on the mighty Modi in May 2019 Lok Sabha polls.  

It transpires that Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav is the brain behind this move and a primary round of discussion had already taken place in Kolkata when these leaders met on Sunday last.

These sources told Lokmat today that Shatrughan Sinha is the most sought-after leader by Opposition parties today; if Mamata Banerjee wants him to contest from any seat in West Bengal, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal asked him to contest against BJP leader Manoj Tiwari in Delhi.  RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav wants him to be the joint Opposition candidate from Patna Sahib in Bihar, a constituency he currently holds in Lok Sabha as BJP MP.Sinha had met Lalu in Ranchi jail last month.  The Congress leadership is also very soft on him and willing to take him on board.

However, the Opposition leaders are looking for a formidable candidate against PM Modi from Varanasi and it is felt that  Shatrughan Sinha foots the bill given the situation. He is a BJP insider, a party veteran, popular, seasoned and commands a lot of goodwill.

The BJP leadership is also moving with caution to proceed against Sinha even after issuing him a public warning on Sunday itself when Shatrughan Sinha addressed an Opposition rally. Last ditch efforts may be on for some sort of a patch up though the die seems to have been cast.

The Opposition had failed in 2014 to put up a joint candidate against Modi from Varanasi due to variety of reasons with Congress and BSP candidates losing their deposits and Arvind Kejriwal getting more than two lakh votes and Modi touching almost 6 lakh vote figure. The opposition parties are keen to give BJP run for its money Varanasi this time and if Shatrughan Sinha is agreeable, it will be a stellar. Sinha will have nothing to lose even if he loses from Varanasi as he will be brought to the Rajya Sabha.

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"We are flexible” says Rahul to G-21 parties

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive story

"We are flexible” says Rahul to G-21 parties

When Mamata said all are equal, DMK, RJD batted for Rahul

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec. 12

Congress president Rahul Gandhi told the leaders of G-21, at the conclave of Opposition parties that his party is “flexible” and willing to accommodate the views of others.

He told the leaders that in order to change the Modi dispensation, the “Congress is willing to change” and give space to others.

according to a senior leader who participated in the conclave told Lokmat that Rahul Gandhi responded with maturity and was clear-headed. 

Rahul Gandhi was responding to suggestions of some of the leaders at the meeting. In fact, it was West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who caused a flutter at the G-21 on Tuesday that “all parties are equal and no one is the leader here.” Mamata Banerjee reacted when the DMK leader M K Stalin who had said earlier that the Congress is the largest grouping in the Opposition and it should play the role of a catalyst. Tejashwi of the RJD who was also present at the meeting had echoed the same sentiments expressed by the DMK. When the turn of Mamata Banerjee came, she said that all parties have to fight the BJP. But no single party can lead it. “We all have to fight together and no one is the leader, “ she thundered.

At this juncture Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu rose to say that the very purpose of the G-21 meeting is to oust the BJP and not to elect a leader or project an individual. Interestingly, it was AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal who was having the last laugh at the G-21 meeting. It was first time that Kejriwal was invited to the Opposition conclave. It now transpires that he entered in the hall with Mamata Banerjee who had been fighting for AAP's entry. But it was Chandrababu Naidu who had also been persuading Rahul Gandhi not to make AAP untouchable. If Modi has to be defeated in 2019, AAP has to be acceptable in the grouping. Insiders say that the day is not far when AAP and Congress will have some sort of seat-sharing understanding in Delhi. It was because of this very reason that Kejriwal said at the meeting, “ I am with this thought of unity and I am with you.”

It also transpires that senior Congress leader Ahmad Patel is talking to all the leaders of the Opposition parties to bring them on the table. But this will continue to be a informal arrangement.

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by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi wants all CMs at Patel Statue Unveiling Event 

BJP rushed to placate Nitish Kumar 

Efforts to bring Naveen Patnaik too  Uddhav Thackeray disincline : 20 BJP CMs in toe 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Oct 29

Prime Minister Narendra Moi is working hard to ensure the presence of Chief Ministers of all the states at unveiling of 'Statue of Unity' dedicated to Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, on October 31 in Gujrat.

Modi wants to tout the ceremony as symbol of unity of the country and is in touch with every chief minister and top leaders of parties to be present when the statue is unveiled.

So keen was Modi to ensure the presence of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar at the venue that he directed BJP Chief Amit Shah to seal the Lok Sabha seat sharing deal with JD (U). Shah rushed to Delhi cutting short his election campaign and made huge concessions.

As Modi wanted that all the NDA CMs be present at the statue of unity-- the BJP has its own band of 20 and it wanted nitish kumar, KCR, Palaniswamy and even. Nitish was unwilling to come.

Gujrat's senior-most Minister Saurabh Patel sought time from Nitish Kumar to invite him for the unveiling ceremony 20 days ago. But Nitish Kumar excused saying that he was traveling. The BJP was informally conveyed if the presence of Nitish is required, the seat sharing issue be settled. Similar efforts are on the persuade Tamil Nadu Chief Minister K Palaniswami and Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao to travel to Gujrat to be part of this unity.

Modi is also keen to ensure the presence of Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik at the venue. The BJP leadership has also conveyed to Patnaik that its not keen to disturb his apple cart.

PM Modi made it clear to the Chief Ministers of non-BJP states that is not a party function and its dedicated to the country’s tallest leader who unified India 70 years ago.

The efforts are also being made to ensure the presence of Shiv Sena Chief Uddhav Thackeray at the venue. When contacted, Sanjay Raut, Shive speokeman and Rajya Sabha MP said, “We are busy in the Ram Temple movement beginning November 25.  

Barring Capt Amrinder Singh (Punjab), Chandrababu Naidu (Andhra Pradesh), Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal) and Arvind Kejriwal (Delhi), V Narayansami (Puducherry) Chief Ministers and Governor of Jammu & Kashmir are expected to attend the ceremony.

The statue touted to be the world’s tallest statue, will have a viewing gallery at the height of 193 metres from the sea level which can accommodate 200 visitors at a time. The security & intelligence agencies are making every effort to check the safety of all the VVIPs together at one place at such a height.

Nearly 3,400 labourers and 250 engineers worked round-the-clock at the site of the statue at Sadhu Bet island on Narmada river. The 182-metre tall statue will be unveiled on the birth anniversary of Sardar Patel. The statue has been built at a cost of Rs. 2,389 crores. Modi had laid the foundation stone for the project on October 31, 2013 when he was the chief minister of Gujarat.

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Fly on the Wall : How Piyush Goyal took G K Pillai to task !

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

How Piyush Goyal took G K Pillai to task !

The mighty chairman of the Duty Drawback Committee of the Finance Ministry, G K Pillai had a taste of interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal recently. It was a Sunday when Goyal summoned a meeting in his office to resolve the long-pending issue of refunds to garment exporters. Textiles Minister Smriti Irani was also called in along with top officials and exporters to long pending problem. It emerged during the meeting that the issue is to resolved by the G K Pillai Committee and its report is awaited. “So all of you are suffering because the report is pending ?” wondered Goyal as top Finance ministry officials nodded in affirmative. Goyal asked for Pillai's mobile and dialed himself. When Pillai picked up the phone, he told Goyal that he was driving the car. Goyal politely requested him to park the car on the roadside as he wants to discuss something important. Remember Pillai has been a very seasoned bureaucrat and was Commerce & Home secretary. He was appointed by Arun jaitley as chairman of the committee to resolve the problem of garment exporters whose duty drawback to the tune of Rs 6000 crores is held up. Goyal asked him if it would be possible for him to submit the report within the next ten days. Pillai was taken aback but promised to do so. Before GST was introduced, garment exporters used to get refunds ranging from 2.9% to 3.9% of the freight-on-board value of products. Since most of the state levies, including central sales tax, have been scrapped in the GST regime, the government decided to reduce it to an interim rate of 0.39% (up to September 2017). But exporters protested saying why shall they be penalized. In fact, they wanted input tax credit on the GST paid on job work and stock transfer where drawback isn’t available. The interim report came and within days, Goyal gave the much-needed relief earning laurels from the industry. The industry watchers say it is unusual for the ministers in the Modi government to function in this manner.

Pawar's pep-talk to Rahul

Congress president Rahul Gandhi has found virtues in NCP supremo Sharad Pawar and is a frequent caller whenever both are in town. Last week, Rahul drove to Pawar's Akbar Road residence and held a marathon on prevailing political situation in the country. The meeting was kept a closely guarded secret and even after the event became public, no one had a clue as to what transpired between the two. The Fly learns that Maharashtra was on the table and Rahul wanted to pick Pawar's brain on prevailing political situation in the country and how things are moving. It was at this juncture that Pawar reported to have suggested that Congress being the leading Opposition party should take the lead in sealing alliances in states. Pawar also said that a victory here should not bring in complacency. The unity is required in Opposition ranks from top to bottom and effective synergy is needed at the booth level. Pawar also told Rahul that Modi is capable of springing a surprise on the Opposition by advancing Lok Sabha polls to November-December. If the alliances and adjustments of seats are sealed in time, it will help the entire Opposition to take on the NDA in time. While the Congress-NCP have agreed in principle to contest Lok Sabha polls in alliance in Maharashtra, the Congress is taking its own sweat time in clinching such arrangements in other major states.

KejriCare VS ModiCare

While Most of the states have fallen in line and agreed to implement the ModiCare scheme, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has stood his grounds. He says that his Health for All scheme is far more superior than the one proposed by Modi government's much-touted ModiCare. Kejriwal says he doesn't need health insurance cover of Rs 5 lakhs per year per family at a premium of Rs 1000-1050. Why bring in insurance companies when the Delhi government directly provides health facilities to all ?. He has trashed the Ayushman Bharat-National Health Protection Mission (AB-NHPM) scheme as middlemen and touts will benefit. He claimed that the Delhi government's DAK (Delhi Arogya Kosh) highly successful and benefiting the citizens of the Capital in a big way. Its a unique scheme under which all kinds of diagnostic tests and treatment and medicines are free once a doctor of Delhi government hospital recommends. Even the treatment/hospitalization in free. The Delhi government has agreements with 25 Delhi private hospitals and diagnostic centers where patients don't have to pay and all expenses will be paid for by the government directly. Kejriwal says ModiCare should adopt KejriCare.

Mayawati wants pan-India alliance with Congress

The Congress leadership is Madhya Pradesh- Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia- have issued public statements favouring an alliance with the BSP in the Assembly polls. Similar sentiments have been expressed by the Congress leadership in Chhattisgarh too. But Mayawati is keeping quiet and has not uttered a word. She is talking to all the parties all the time but not the Congress. She clinched an alliance with H D Deve Gowda's JD (S) in Karnataka and opened her account. The JD (S) is willing to contest Lok Sabha polls in alliance with BSP as well. The photo ops at Benguluru where Sonia Gandhi and Mayawati hugging may have gone viral. But there is no alliance/adjustment of seats talks between the Congress and Mayawati so far. Both are keen and waiting who to bell the cat. Mayawati, however, has signaled that she would like to have pan-India alliance with Congress not only in UP but also in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh. She even wants a pie in Gujrat and Karnataka too. If she wants three seats each in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi, she is eyeing four Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra and five in Madhya Pradesh besides two each in Chhattisgarh and Gujrat. The Congress wants 20 Lok Sabha seats in UP and Mayawati is not willing to give more than 5-7 seats. Therefore, the situation is very fluid and no one is willing to initiate a dialogue.

Fly on the Wall :Is Shah Repenting filing Rs 100 cr. defamation case ?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Is Shah Repenting filing Rs 100 cr. defamation case ?

BJP president Amit Shah may be rueing the day he decided to sue the news portal (thewire.in) for Rs 100 crores. At the hindsight, a feeling has crept in that he should have ignored it as the website made hardly any serious allegation of corruption per se against his son. It only published what was available in public domain and the website only collated information. A strong point-by-point denial by Jay Shah and his lawyers would have suffice. But fielding a Union Minister Piyush Goyal to deny charges (mind you; there were no charges) and declare filing defamation case of Rs 100 crores. It is now felt that the whole thing was avoidable. The case related to Jay Shah and party should have officially nothing to do with it. It will drag party also in the court as the party would have to prove it has been defamed. The fact that Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh took full three days to react and most of the senior ministers kept quiet is an indication that second thoughts crept in. It transpires that Amit Shah consulted only Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley who deputed his erstwhile junior lawyer Manish Dogra to send notice to the website on behalf of Jay Shah. Jaitley may come to the fore after his return from the USA. But many in the party feel that the case should have been fought politically.

Who leaked “Shah Zada” story ?

The Capital is agog with all kinds of stories as to who leaked the juicy details of small time company of Jay Shah becoming big in turn over and diversifying into Solar business and then taking subsidy from the power ministry. One speculation is that Amit Shah's detractors within the party in Delhi helped out in carrying out research and investigation. Another source attributed it to a former Chief Minister Anandiben Patel who does not see eye-to-eye with Amit Shah. There is no dearth of people in Gandhinagar who are after Amit Shah's blood within his own party. However, sources close to Amit Shah deny that it was an insider's job as its not a story at all. They believe it was done at the instance of the “secular forces” who want oxygen at any cost.

Pay Rs 75000, file Rs 100 crore case

Do you know how much is the court fee to file a defamation case against a person to file defamation case to the tune of Rs 100 crores in Gujrat ? Top lawyers tell me that in Gujrat the fee for civil cases of such nature is just Rs 75000. There is cap under the law to charge court fee. while in Delhi, the fee is astonishingly high. Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had to deposit a whopping court fee of Rs 10 lakhs to file Rs ten crores defamation case against Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Sources say that the fee was high earlier in Gujrat too. But it was  brought down a couple of years ago.

Nitin Gadkari has reasons to grumble 

Road Transport, Shipping & Water Resources Minister Nitin Gadkari has reasons to be upset. At least his supporters are extremely angry. Though Gadkari is keeping his mouth shut,his supporters feel that he was wronged in 2012 when he was made to resign from BJP president's post. He had to quit merely because the then Finance Minister, P Chidambaram sent an Income Tax officer to probe a case against the Purti group. Gadkari was made to quit merely because an IT officer knocked at the door of his office. Its a different matter that Gadkari was given the clean chit in the case by the UPA government itself in the case. But in the instant case the family friends and companies helped the son of BJP chief and no questions are being raised. Rather, a minister was deputed to defend the son. Why two parameters ?  Gadkari supporters grumble. It is however pointed out that in the Gadkari case, the IT officer knocked at the door for a roving inquiry. In the Shah case, it was a handiwork of party's detractors. Understand it right. 

Advani gets his lifeline back

The presence of veteran BJP leader L K Advani at the Dussehra day speech of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat at Nagpur may have raised many an eyebrows. It was speculated in the media that Advani went to Nagpur without an invitation etc etc. However, it has now emerged that the RSS leadership invited him and gave him a rousing reception at the airport when he landed with his daughter Pratibha Advani and private secretary deepak chopra the previous night. He also a prolonged meeting with the top RSS leadership including Mr Bhagwat after the speech. Bhagwat's speech rattled the BJP leadership in Delhi is no secret. But political analysts wonder if there is any significance as the critical speech was made in the presence of veteran Advani ? After all, the RSS has reasons to be unhappy as the BJP leadership didn't heed to its advice to make Dr Murli Manohar Joshi party candidate for the post of President. The BJP opted for Ram Nath Kovind.

Guess how cases are dug out !

The Delhi Police has dug out an eve teasing case from the archives after several years against the son of a Constitutional authority after he demitted office. Though the Delhi Police had to register an FIR of eve teasing as existing laws are very strict. But the case never progressed even after the UPA government lost power. Delhi Police dug out the copy of an old FIR and wants to take the case to its logical conclusion. However, the constitutional dignitary is unfazed even after retirement recently saying that it has no meat in it and complaint is bogus. The matter has now been referred to the Union Home Ministry as Delhi Police is under it.

Fly on the Wall : Mayawati as PM candidate ?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mayawati as PM candidate ?

Mayawati's frontal attack on the BJP alleging that it is hatching a conspiring to eliminate her is the first direct hint of her joining ranks with other Opposition parties during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BSP has mostly kept away from the 17-parties Opposition parties' conclaves. She was quiet for some time and some attributed this silence to Enforcement Directorate (ED) going after her brother Anand in the Rs 1200 crores money laundering case. With Mayawati blasting the Modi government is the first signal of Opposition unity taking a positive turn. It transpires that Rahul Gandhi is sending out signals that he is willing to do anything to dislodge Modi. Mayawati thinks she can play a role at the national level. Akhilesh Yadav is working out a barter deal with Mayawati quietly under which he will support her for the PM's post while she will back him for the CM's post. Lalu Yadav is also ready for Mayawati. The BSP has following amongst the Dalits outside UP in several North Indian states. One may hear more news on this front sooner than expected. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has also been nursing the Prime Ministerial ambitions. With Mayawati throwing her hat in the ring, one will have to watch. 

Hooda may be in the dock, thanks to CBI

After M L Tayal, its the turn of another top official related to former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda to face the music. The CBI is now tightening its grip around Chhatar Singh who is now a member of the UPSC. He was chief administrator of HUDA and principal secretary to Hooda after Tayal retired and facing CBI cases for corruption. The case against Chhatar Singh is strong and may put Hooda in serious trouble. The Modi government helped Hooda by not charging him under the PMLA in the National Herald case. But the case against these top aides of Hooda is so strong that the CBI is unable to dilute them. It is learnt that Chhatar singh may even be asked to resign from the UPSC. Hooda had ensured that Chhatar Singh is appointed member UPSC during the UPA regime after retirement.

Rajnath not consulted on NIA's new chief

When Y C Modi was appointed was appointed as the new chief of the NIA, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh was in the dark until the file landed on his desk from the PMO. Normally, the file to fill vacancies with regard to departments and police organisations directly under the Ministry of Home Affairs are sent to the Cabinet Secretary by the Home Minister. The NIA is directly under the MHA and its Chief Sharad Kumar was to retire on October 30. Normally, announcements with regard to such postings are done 15-20 days prior. But in this case, the PMO called up the Home Secretary Rajiv Gauba and asked him to send the proposal which he did without losing time. Gauba was also asked to send the name for the successor of SSB Chief also. But before Gauba could recover, the file came back in no time clearing the name of Y C Modi. Rajnath Singh who is also a member of the Cabinet Committee for Appointment (ACC), was taken aback when the file was put up to him for information and subsequent action.

Scared BJP delinks Gurdaspur LS Bye-poll with others

The BJP has de-linked the Gurdaspur Lok Sabha byelection with that of Gorakhpur and Phulpur. Though Yogi Adityanath had quit the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat and Keshav Prasad Maurya had quit the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat on August 6 itself, the Election Commission didn't hold the LS polls in these constituencies. When asked, a senior Election Commission official said that byelections are to be held only on the recommendation of the state government. Since the Punjab Government recommended the holding of bypoll in Gurdaspur and six months mandatory period was also expiring, we are holding the same. But in the case of UP LS seat, there is time. It is, however, up to the state government to take a call when it would like to hold. The state government indicated that it will contemplate after the festival season. It is said that the BJP doesn't want to test its popularity in UP at this juncture and delaying bye-polls. There are two vacancies in Rajasthan (Alwar & Ajmer) and one in Telangana.

Kejriwal Went to Igatpuri, lessons to keep quiet

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal quietly went into silent mode even after winning the Bawana Assembly seat in a tough byelection. This was a surprise to all in the Capital. He did not react when BJP was routed in the Delhi University Students Union polls. It now transpires that he opted to go to Igatpuri in Nashik and stayed at the Vipaasana Centre for ten days. Though he had been going to Bengaluru for his throat treatment and practice silence, habits die hard. He is back on twitter after ten days and roar in Gujrat shortly.

We are providing free medicines and tests to all: Nadda

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

'We are providing free medicines, tests to all'

We are providing free medicines and tests to all: Nadda

Union Minister for health and family welfare Jagat Prakash Nadda says free check-up will be done in case of those above 30 years of age and suffering from hypertension, diabetes, oral cancer and breast cancer. We are going to roll out this scheme in 100 districts this year.

Medicines too will be given free of cost. Similarly, we have decided to open 20 state-of-the-art cancer units. Under the Prime Minister's Dialysis Scheme, the government will open dialysis centres in about 400 districts across the country.

HARISH GUPTA

Questions: Is “free medicine and free treatment to all' your new slogan?

Answer : Free drugs and diagnostics will be available to all whether they take treatment in a private hospital or a government hospital. Our government has rolled out free drugs and diagnostic facilities. This is a revolutionary step in the field of healthcare. The government is offering 500 medicines free of cost. Now the states have to implement this. Many state have already come forward to implement this. Moreover, there are many other schemes too.

Q. What are the new schemes?

A : There will be free check-up for those above 30 years of age and who are suffering from hypertension, diabetes, oral cancer, breast cancer etc. This will be done in the entire country. We are going to roll out this plan this year in 100 districts. We have decided to open 20 state-of-the-art cancer units. They will be built at a cost of Rs.150 crore. The project will also inculde 50 cancer centres which too will be opened. Under the Prime Minister's Dialysis Scheme, the government will open dialysis centres in about 400 districts across the country. One per cent rise would be registered in the Universal Immunization (vaccination) programme for new born babies every year. We have taken it up to eight per cent in the last two years and proposed to take it up to 10 per cent. This has been a great achievement. There were seven types of vaccines in the immunization programme so far, which we have increased to 11 now. Our government has done a landmark work in a short span of time.

Q. But in Delhi, the Kejriwal government too is offering free medicines and tests?

A: All the money to the district hospitals comes from the centre. in Delhi also, whatever free drugs and diagnostic tests are being offered in the district hospitals, are being funded by the centre only.

Q. So the Kejriwal government is just bragging while you are doing the real work?

A. All I would say is that the government of India is working. There are many state governments that are taking advantage of Centre's schemes.

Q. You fixed the prices of stent and keen treatment. It took you three years to do. When will you fix the cost of other surgeries?

A. We are working on it. Our effort is to cap costs of all essential surgeries.

Q. It seems you are afraid of the hospital lobby?

A: Not at all. We do 'solid' work. We do not get affected by the lobby.

Q. You generic medicines policy has stirred the hornet's nest among drug companies. But this order sounds more populist. Nothing is happening on the ground!

A. Whenever any changes occur, they have their own reactions. For, the decisions are taken for the benefit of the people. Just wait... the work is going on.

Q. But the effect of medical lobby is quite conspicuous in case of medical colleges!

A. We are bringing the National Medical Commission Bill. There will be uniform policy in the entire Country.

Q. You had assured about this Bill when you became a minister?

A. This Bill is in the final stage. After all, whenever there is a problem, it is necessary to make fool-proof arrangement.

Q. You superseded the MCI. Then there was some problem in the Supreme Court appointed committee? Then you formed the 'oversight committee'?

A. I will not make any comment on this. We are trying to establishing a transparent system. Look at NEET. It is a glaring example of our transparency. The National Medical Commission will be formed too. We will do away with the these problems.

Q. You are opening AIIMS in every states. But there are neither doctors nor trained staff?

A. We have increased 20,000 seats in PG and UGC courses. After all, it takes time to set up AIIMS-like institutions on such a large scale. We can not compromise on institutions like AIIMS.

Q. But you are cutting down the healthcare budget?

A. No, we are raising the budget. There is a 27 per cent increase this year. But the states have not been able to spend the money. When I assumed charges, they were spending about 20 per cent only. After a lot of hard work, it has now gone up to 40 per cent.

Q. The government is silent on this issue of 'population'?

A. We are working on family development mission. Today, the total fertility rate in 24 states has come down to 2.1 per cent. It is more than 3 per cent in 8 states. In these states, 140 districts are such where we are doing micro-planning for each one of them.

Q. But there is no discussion whatsoever, about it. Are you doing it quietly?

A. You have to concentrate only on your work while doing some good work. This is very serious task and the results will be for all to see.

Q. You once proposed to regulate the sale and consumption of tabacoo, but went silent after that?

A. prevention is very essential. We are laying emphasis on public education and awareness, which has been 6 per cent reduction in consumption of tabacco in the last three years. The effects can be seen even in cinema halls. If regulation will be required even after that, we will do that too.

Q. In Gujarat and Karnataka, the BJP has announced its leaders. But why is it not doing so in Himachal?

A. The BJP prepares separate plans for every state. In many states, we contested elections after announcing names of the leaders. But in many states, we did not do so. It is the BJP Parliamentary Board which takes a decision in this regards.

Q. Some people say that you are BJP's 'secret card'?

A. There is absolutely no truth in it. The BJP Parliamentary Board takes the decision on all such matters and it will take a right decision at the right time.

"A" in politics but low in Economics

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

In democracy, completion of three years in power is a time for perturbation as that’s when the curse of “anti-incumbency” sets in.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is an exception. Into his fourth year in power, there is hardly any popular disgruntlement against his incumbency. It was evident in the assembly election in Uttar Pradesh last March when the BJP under Modi and party president Amit Shah succeeded in pulverising the ruling Samajwadi Party much to the same extent to which the saffron party had steamrolled its rivals in the mega-state in the 2014 general elections.

By now, BJP is armed with an election machinery which is unparalleled. Its leadership’s ardour to win every poll is legendary. And for the party, the importance of the year 2019, when Modi’s second innings in power is expected to begin, is underlined. At least this is the impression one gets after talking to a number of Opposition leaders. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s statement that he is not in the race for the Prime Minister’s post and veteran politician Sharad Pawar is not ready to play ball with the Congress clearly give the impression that they are unwilling to fight with Modi.  

It is obvious that BJP is shining in the absence of competition. Congress president Sonia Gandhi, Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee, CPI(M)’s Sitaram Yechuri—all of them seem trapped in a single strategic silo to combat Modi, which is to “unite” the opposition. The Presidential poll, due in July, can be the first test of unity. But that’s most likely to be fighting a losing battle, as there are unbridgeable fissures in the opposition—Mamata Vs CPM, AAP’s Kejriwal Vs Congress, Samajwadi Party Vs BSP’s Mayawati. Beside, Modi’s inclusive style of campaigning has gravely challenged the traditional parties’ vote-banks. Mayawati’s Jatav, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s once famous Muslim (M)-Yadav (Y) amalgam, Delhi’s Bihari immigrant voters loyal to AAP—recent elections show that the lure of Modi’s “mitron” call brought about seemingly irreparable cracks in these traditional alliances.

Besides, the opposition is bereft of tall leaders. Unlike its UPA predecessor, the Modi administration is not protective about politicians involved in graft cases. Instead, its in-the-face attitude has dragooned most opposition stalwarts in cases from which escape is not guaranteed. Like Laloo and his family members in money-laundering charges; Congress former Home and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and his son, Karti, in the allegation of siphoning off huge amounts to acquire, among other things, large property in Britain; most of Mamata’s ministers and party leaders waiting to be picked up by CBI on the charge of accepting bribe as shown in the ‘Narada’ sting operation. In the National Herald illegal share-transfer case, the noose may also tighten on Sonia Gandhi and her son, Rahul, the Congress vice-president.

The opposition calls it “witch hunt” but its voice is feeble, with the media prone to self-censorship, and the government, armed with summary provision under Sec 124A of the IPC, being empowered to swoop down on its critics in the social media on the charge of being ‘seditious’. Besides, hit by a blizzard of serious corruption charges, the opposition seems to have lost its moral heft to stand up and question the government. It is more serious than comparable global developments, like near-evaporation of the Labour Party in UK, or the US Democratic Party being in eclipse. Unlike these mature democracies, the Indian opposition parties are personality-based and not much remains of them when the central towering figure collapses.

Though Modi’s political victory so far is undeniable, there are signs of weariness in governance and vision. In 2014, he promised: “I will make such a wonderful India that all Americans will stand in line to get a visa for India”. Unfortunately, things have moved in a different direction. Somewhat embarrassingly, the government Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) figures of national income refuse to tally with estimates of industrial production. In the quarter covering demonetisation of large notes last November, the index of industrial production was flat but national income grew at 7%, like in magic. With large malls lying near-empty, or being converted to office space, a shortfall in demand is self-evident.

Behind decline in demand is the stark reality of job opportunities shrinking. It is not merely due to Donald Trump’s visa policy, or problems in the IT sector due to shifts in technology (entry of robots in workplaces, for example). There are other reasons too, such as:

·      India has 10 million new workers to the workforce annually, but available non-agricultural jobs are less than 5 per cent;

·      Poor education system has rendered most Indians unemployable, including 90 % of the 10 lakh engineers passing out every year;

·      China became the world’s factory in the 1980’s. Now protectionism rules the roost, with global trade remaining subdued at 2.7% in volume terms. India may not be able to do the China act.

·      CRISIL estimates 12 million people will join agricultural workforce between 2011-12 and 2018-19. But agri workers’ number is declining very fast. So the country cannot move up the value chain to become a modern nation.

·      Agriculture, construction, manufacturing—sectors that employ people are lagging GDP growth. Though agriculture production has shown improvement. But its after two years’ of consecutive drought. What have outpaced GDP growth are financial services, real estate, public administration, and trade, hotels and restaurants. Except the last, all other growing sectors have little job potential. The country is indeed experiencing jobless growth. In the proposed GST regime, the last two have been hit hard.

From the rough and tumble of electoral politics, can Modi take a creative leap to make India a hub of innovation and growth? In the next two years, he must prove he can think big on governance. Or else the queues in India for American visa will continue to be longer than the other way round.

Never say die !

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

With the collapse of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), first in Punjab & Goa, and now in the recently held Municipal polls in Delhi, the last “hope” of the Opposition politics is heading towards self destruction. No doubt, the opponents too are working over-time to inflict a body blow to the four-year born baby. But most of the AAP’s wounds are self-inflicted. If the party is heading towards the funeral pyre, its no one’s fault. Its none else than Arvind Kejriwal himself.  

Gone are the days when he was the darling of the media, the down-trodden and the middle-class. It was Kejriwal who had stunned the nation by trouncing the  BJP in its citadel by winning 67 out of the 70 Assembly seats. The rout of the Congress which ruled the Union Territory for 15 years under Shiela Dikshit, was of no consequence. It was expected due to variety of reasons. But it was he who single-handedly halted the victory march of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was a severe blow to the BJP and sent its leaders into a shell.  The “alternative politics” became the narrative. It was not as if the country was not aware of Kejriwal’s national ambitions. After all, he had contested 500-odd Lok Sabha seats in May 2014 and came a cropper. Yet AAP winning four Lok Sabha seats in Punjab raised eye-brows. But it was his win in Delhi that aroused a new kind of  “Hope”.The “secular forces” needed a horse to ride and Kejri was right there. He was the man of the moment.

The timing of his rise in 2013 was most opportune and he never looked back until the big shock in Punjab & Goa and then in Delhi which was his citadel. The Congress had lost the plot in May 2014 and could never recover from the shock tally of 44 Lok Sabha MPs. And this was not all. The party started losing one state after the other and with the BJP scouting for “talent” in every state, the Congress suffered one set back after the other. So much so that veterans like S M Krishna opted to “dump the sinking ship.” A prominent Madhya Pradesh Congress leader had almost clinched his re-entry into the BJP. It was nixed at the last minute by one of the Trioka members (Modi-Shah-Jaitley). 

The Congress’ two sitting Chief Ministers will face their litmus test this year end in Himachal Pradesh & Karnataka. It is also an irony in the era of Congress bashing that its victory in Punjab is not attributed to the  Gandhis. The credit for Capt. Amrinder Singh’s win is attributed to his leadership and to the BJP which did everything possible to ensure AAP’s rout. Secondly, AAP’s one blunder after the other in Punjab helped the Congress to dislodge the Akalis after ten years. Why the Congress leadership can’t be credited with Punjab win ? Look at the MCD poll results in Delhi ! Rahul Gandhi’s hand-picked Ajay Maken ensured that the party secures the third position. Therefore, the most worrying aspect is that the Congress leadership failed to create “hope” amongst its rank and file and Rahul Gandhi’s inability to enthuse the voter is widely accepted. The Left parties who commandeered Central governments from outside, have now been reduced to single digit in Parliament. It is now confined to Tripura and even here, BJP chief Amit Shah is determined to snatch the Left’s last Bastion. The Indian Left is facing a leadership crisis and it is desperately searching for a Kanhaiya to save it from virtual extinction.

The less said the better of another prominent national political party, the BSP which has nearly 20% votes fixed votes in over 100 Lok Sabha constituencies. But she is fast losing the plot and surfacing of her recent audio-tapes could be a turning point in Dalit politics. Her image is already sullied and the BSP is virtually on the verge of extinction in both houses of Parliament. The Lalus, Mulayams, Mamatas have destroyed their own image as one scam after the other hits them and their parties. This has brought Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is considered a clean politician at a crossroad. If he dumps Lalu, his government goes. Alternatively, he can re-join the NDA. The BJP also badly needs Nitish Kumar as it wants Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats in its kitty. The BJP is aware that it will be difficult to sweep Lok Sabha polls in Bihar if it contests alone and Nitish-Lalu-Congress stay together. In either case, his dream of emerging as a consensus candidate for the Prime Ministerial post from the Opposition benches is in jeopardy.

Therefore, its a pitiable situation for the Opposition, at least for the moment. For the very survival of democracy a strong Opposition is needed. But one cannot expect the Modi-Shah to create the Opposition. The leaders on the Opposition benches will have to re-invent themselves. The Opposition will have to find a leader who is capable enough to take other parties along. Arvind Kejriwal had showed the charisma and there was a moment when the Left parties were willing to do business with him. But he lost the plot due to his self-destructive over-ambitious politics. Rahul Gandhi had ample opportunities to lead the party from the front and provide the leadership. But he too missed the bus. May be he will have to re-orient and re-invent.

If BJP can re-invent after 14 years of struggle after being routed in 1984, why shall the Opposition be in a hurry. Modi’s honey-moon is not over yet and the Opposition parties do not have 24X7 politicians like Modi and Amit Shah. But political parties don’t die, only their corrupt and incompetent leaders fade away with time. The parties bounce back.

Little promise of break-out

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

2017 has begun on a heap of misconfigurations from the year that is just over. Brexit, Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, rise of ultra-nationalism, and potential ‘great dictators’, at all corners of the world. 

At home, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aggressive foreign policy has begun losing its sheen, with traditional India-baiters China and Pakistan wresting old ally Russia from India’s embrace. Trump’s entry into the White House still a few days ahead, and with his legendary unpredictability, events in 2017 may put India in a diplomatic isolation it never experienced. On the economic front, the post-2010 stalemate continues, with demand subdued, exports stunted and consumer prices ruling high. There is little promise of the new year being a break-out year either for India or the world. 

However, Modi’s shock move on November 8 to scrap the high denomination notes of 500 and 1,000 rupees has come with the promise of bringing about a series of systemic changes in the economy. The demonetisation exercise has brought large amounts of money into the banking system, thus enabling the government to take a host of fiscal measures to address India’s enduring problem of inequality. It looks like note-scrapping is only the first of a series of measures on the anvil, and may extend to locking up the channels through unmonitored cash flows—property, gold, etc. The biggest distortion caused by unaccounted money is in politics as the untold cost of elections is met from illicit ‘donations’ from persons and organizations with elaborate post-poll agenda. Much of UPA-2’s (2009-14) troubles over price and distribution of natural resources, for that matter, had originated from shadowy poll financiers insisting on their demands being met by the government after election. Under Representation of the People Act, a political party is not liable to disclose identities of donors below Rs. 20,000. Modi, in his new year’s eve speech, has used strong language to remind all parties of their moral duty to help change the elections laws so that election finance becomes transparent, thus clogging perhaps the most toxic outflow channel of unaccounted cash. There is a possibility that some action may follow in the days to come.

Modi’s position in the world, which looked robust till last year, may be badly amiss now. Apart from the diplomatic isolation which I mentioned at the beginning of this article, what he may face is some chilling after-effect of growing protectionism which is threatening global trade and, consequently, the hope of India using FDI as fuel of future growth. 

It is evident that Modi is not without an early apprehension about global investment drying up. That may be the real trigger for his de-monetisation move, as all that he wanted, perhaps, was to mobilise domestic cash for giving a push to the economy. May be it will work even in the medium term as the promises he has made in his new year’s eve speech focuses on housing for the poor which, by itself, can be catalyst for general growth. The government banks, reeling under bad debt (the stressed advances to gross advances in June 2016 being 12%), were compelled to shut their doors to all sorts of borrowers, including the small and medium sector, in the recent past, that being the main reason for economic slow-down. 2017 may witness the banks resuming advances to the SME sector which contributes 40% to exports and 45% to the total manufacturing output.  

However, in the rapid course corrections the Centre will be forced to make this year on practically all fronts, its success will greatly depend on Modi’s ability to ride out the political storm at home. It appears that the Congress had put all its eggs on the single basket of de-monetisation, thinking that it could not but fail miserably, leading to a massive backlash. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi happily stayed in this bubble of illusion, and was supported by Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal. But Rahul’s de-monetisation ‘bomb’ turned out to be a damp squib with no visible backlash. As he is reportedly holidaying abroad, there is slender chance of his party clawing its way back to a respectable height in near future. 

In Uttar Pradesh, the election is likely to be bellwether for general elections in 2019 owing to its size and also due to the closeness of the race between BJP and the ruling Samajwadi Party. In 2012, SP won over half the 403 assembly seats and Akhilesh Singh Yadav, the young chief minister, became the poster boy of the party founded by his father, Mulayam Singh Yadav. But the Yadav family’s primacy was severely dented when, in 2014, BJP grabbed 73 of the state’s 80 LS sets. Trouble erupted in the Yadav clan since then, as Mulayam and his aides began doubting Akhilesh’s capability to measure up to BJP’s challenge while Akhilesh held his father, and his proneness to drive the government from back seat, squarely responsible for the defeat. 

The state’s third player, Mayawati, has somehow lost the charisma that enabled her in 2007 to cobble together a multi-caste canvas in which upper castes coexisted with the jatav—her own caste. It did not last in the 2012 election. Nor is there much indication of its revival this time round. Akhilesh is still a leader who commands respect for bringing about some improvement in the quality of life in Uttar Pradesh—a so-called ‘bimaru’ state—by investing in electricity, roads and girls’ education. But doubt persists about his family feud ending before elections, thus giving BJP a valuable edge in a state which is home to a fifth of the country’s population. Armed with Modi's December 31 largesse and project the PM as  messiah of the poor, the Sangh Parivar has launched massive blitzkrieg in UP. Undoubtedly, round one has gone to Modi post-demonitization.