Fly on the Wall - Modi subtle goal-post shift

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi subtle goal-post shift

If you thought PM Modi will hang his boots and hand-over reins of power once he turns 75 years to a successor, you may be in for some surprises. Reason being that Modi has subtly shifted his goal-post from 2022 to 2029. An indication of changing goal-post came at a virtual function last week which largely went unreported wherein he said that a lot of work has been done during the past six and half years. But for India’s growth and development next nine years are very important. Modi had said on several occasions in the past that by 2022 when India celebrates its 75th anniversary of Independence, farmers' income will be doubled and all will have pakka houses, education for all and many more tall promises. In fact, when he came to power in 2014, he had promised that farmers income will be doubled within the next five years. But later, he shifted it to 2022. Now he is talking that the next nine years are crucial for India’s development. Two things clearly emerge from his statement; one that he will be around until 2029 and secondly, he is working hard to win the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Though many of his lieutenants like Amit Shah have said that the BJP will rule India for the next 50 years. But Modi had always refrained from making such tall claims.

Focus on the Bungalow now!

After losing Rajya Sabha seat for his mother Reena Paswan, the LJP chief is working hard to retain ministerial bungalow at Janpath. The 12 Janpath Road Bungalow was allotted to Ram Vilas Paswan when he became a Minister in the V P Singh government and continued since then. His son, Chirag Paswan who is a two term Lok Sabha MP is not entitled to type VIII bungalow. After Paswan’s death, the bungalow has fallen under the "general category". With no Cabinet berth round the corner for Chirag, he may have to vacate the bungalow unless the Cabinet Committee on Accommodation allows him to retain it. One will have to watch out what happens to this “Hanuman” of Prime Minister Modi. His hopes rest on BJP Chief J P Nadda who said recently, “At the Centre, the matter is different. But in Bihar, this is what it is.” Nadda was asked whether Chirag is part of NDA or not. The vague reply given has raised hopes for Chirag.

What went wrong with Ahmed Patel

The sudden demise of Ahmed Patel has left a void in the Congress at a juncture when the party needed him most. It is not as if he didn’t see ups and downs. He suffered a setback when Ambica Soni became the political secretary to Sonia Gandhi replacing him. It’s a different matter that he was back at the center- stage soon. When Rahul took over as party chief, Patel was subtly sidelined again as the scion of the Gandhi family wanted his own team. However, Sonia Gandhi was wise enough and retained him as her chief political adviser until his death. It’s a different matter that Rahul Gandhi also found virtues in him later and he was back in the political game. It, however, remains a mystery as to why he chose to travel all the way to Faridabad’s Metro Hospital in October for treatment when he was first tested positive of Covid. No doubt, he had been regular at Metro whenever he fell ill. Later, he shifted to Apollo hospital and finally brought to Medanta in Gurugram. Three hospitals in two months did not prove lucky to him.

A promoted with demotion

It's strange that Yashvardhan Kumar Sinha got a demotion while he was promoted as new Chief Information Commissioner. He was holding the rank of the Supreme Court judge as Information Commissioner. But the moment he was promoted as CIC, he was demoted to the rank of a Cabinet Secretary. He will lose salary and pension. Interestingly, his four old colleagues will hold SC judge rank while three new colleagues will be in the rank of secretary. A dichotomy created by the amendment to the RTI Act in 2018!

BJP in a dilemma over lone RS seat

Sushil Modi, Reena Paswan in reckoning

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

New Delhi, Nov. 25

All eyes are set on Bihar’s lone Rajya Sabha seat by-election which will be held on December 14. The last date of filing nomination is December 3. The seat fell vacant due to the death of Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

The bye-poll has assumed huge political significance as the LJP headed by Paswan’s son Chirag Paswan is claiming the seat. Though the LJP has only one MLA in the 243-member Bihar Assembly and it is not part of the NDA in Bihar either. But it remains the key member of the alliance in Delhi having six MPs in the Lok Sabha. Chirag Paswan is insisting upon the BJP leadership that his party helped the BJP emerge as the single largest party of the NDA in Bhar bagging 74 seats. Chirag Paswan also claims that LJP was instrumental in establishing BJP senior partner in the alliance. Therefore, the RS seat be given to his mother Reena Paswan. Secondly, his party may have won only one seat but it polled nearly 6% votes and a force to reckon with in Bihar. The BJP cannot brush the LJP aside and this fact was acknowledged by the BJP Chief J P Nadda too.

Insiders in the BJP say the party is grappling with its own problems. If it gives the seat to LJP, it may annoy Janatal Dal (U). Secondly, if the BJP decides to retain the seat, it will find it difficult to ignore the claim of Sushil Modi who was denied the Deputy Chief Minister’s post. It was then presumed that his services may be used in Delhi. If the BJP leadership wants to keep him at arm’s length, the seat may be given to the LJP. Therefore, the bye-poll has assumed huge political significance.

The BJP may also try to wean away some of the Congress-RJD MLAs as has been done in other states.

After CAA, battle begins on NPR now

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

After CAA, battle begins on NPR now

Maharashtra keeping fingers crossed   

States can delay NPR, not defy

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 16

A fresh row has emerged between the Centre and a few states on implementing National Population Register (NPR) exercise to begin on April 1 this year. Though the Centre is working hard to calm down protests on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) by not notifying rules, some states have toughened their stance against the NPR now.

While West Bengal and Kerala have officially written to the Centre to put the NPR on hold, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Pudduchery & Ladakh (UT s) have not notified dates for conducting it NPR in their respective territories.

Three states — Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan — devised a new strategy by asking the Central government if the NPR data could be shared with them. These states said this would to help in ‘identifying genuine beneficiaries’ for their welfare schemes. Since the Centre has not responded positively, they are sitting pretty as well. Punjab said it would take a call only after the state Assembly deliberates on it. The NPR exercise has already been initiated in Odisha with the state government clearing all the parameters laid down in the NPR act.

The Centre is not in a hurry to press the states as they had already notified NPR implementation last July. These have developed cold feet due to one reason or the other. It would be interesting to mention that the NDA government revived the NPR in 2015 after the UPA stopped it midway in 2010 due to the launching of Aadhaar. The NDA created an electronic data base of 119 crores people in 2015-16 listing usual residents who provided Aadhaar, Voter ID card, ration cards and other details if they possessed the same. There may be some controversy whether providing details is mandatory or not. But the NPR manual of 2020-21 clearly says that this exercise is mandatory and time bound and those willfully defying could be prosecuted.

However, in this case, the state governments have developed cold feet which can lead to the delay.

Ends 

Triple Talaq Bill in Rajya Sabha

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive report

Triple Talaq Bill in Rajya Sabha

Modi spoke to opponents to seek support

Many non-NDA parties fell in line

Some did not issue the whip

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 30

The BJP moved heaven & earth to muster support from parties which are not even part of the NDA for the Triple Talaq Bill. It was introduced this morning in the Rajya Sabha after being sent by the Lok Sabha. Since the BJP/NDA doesn't have numbers to get the controversial bill passed, the leadership decided to muster majority by using every weapon in its armoury.

Prime Minister, Narendra Modi personally telephoned Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik to seek support of the Bju Janata Dal (BJD) which has seven MPs. The PM also spoke to the AIADMK president and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister to direct its MPs in the Rajya Sabha to walk out of the House at the time of voting if not support. The 11-member AIADMK opposed the Bill while talking about it. But when it came to voting, they did what was told to them. The PM even spoke to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to pesruade Janata Dal (U) MPs in the Rajya Sabha to walk out of the house if they can't support. The Nationalist Congress Party did not issue whip to its 4 Rajya Sabha MPs on the bill. Interestingly, the Telugu Desam Party leader N Chandra Babu Naidu was also spoken to by a top leader of the BJP not to oppose the Bill. Though TDP is at loggerheads with the BJP as it broke the party in Rajya Sabha and took away four MPs. The remaining two MP did the summersault too when it came to the voting. So much so that the lone member of the Janata Dal (S) was conveyed to stay away from the voting whose government was dislodged in Karnataka.

The BJP also did a coup of sort when it won over a Congress member of the Rajya Sabha, Dr Sanjay Singh to resign from the house itself and join the BJP today. This brought down the Congress strength to 47. The SP MP Neeraj Shekhar had done the same thing last week when he quit the party and the Rajya Sabha. Many MPs like Ram Jethmalani and four others.

It is now clear that the very strength of the Rajya Sabha fell down steeply from 240 making the task of the BJP easier.

Akalis give new Headache to Fadnavis

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special report

Akalis give new Headache to Fadnavis

Amit Shah issues sermon; Amend Nanded Gurudwara Act

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Feb 4

Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) may be BJP's ally in Punjab. But it is giving a new headache to the Devendra Fadnavis government in Maharashtra.

It now transpires BJP president Amit Shah spoke to the Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and impressed upon him to re-look at the Gurudwara Act governing the historic Gurudwara at Nanded in the state.

The tiny issue of the Nanded Gurudwara has rocked the decades old relationship of the BJP with the SAD which threatened to walk out of the NDA and quit the Modi government. Sukhbir Singh Badal, president of the SAD, had met the BJP president had told him in no uncertain terms that his party would be left with no option but to quit the NDA. Even Harsimrat Kaur Badal, Food Processing Minister would quit the Modi government if the Maharashtra government continued to play with the religious sentiments of the Sikh community in the state. Since the Akalis had refused to attend the NDA meeting held on Friday last, Amit Shah swung into action and held a marathon meeting with Akali leaders to appease the discontentedThe SAD had made it clear that its core committee would meet and severe ties with the BJP forever.

Obviously, the BJP found the issue too hot to handle after what is happening in the North East and with other allies.

The Akalis told Shah that a section of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) are trying to interfere in matters related to Sikhs. Functionaries who were privy to discussions said the both leaders managed to hammer out a truce after the two-hour meeting.

The bone of contention between the BJP and Akali Dal is over the amendments made in the Takht Hazoor Abchal Nagar Sahi Nanded Act, 1956 by the BJP government in Maharastra. The amendment empowered the Government to nominate six members to the Gurudwara Prabandhak Committee of Nanded and also its chairman. The committee has 15 elected elect members. But the power to nominate as many as six members and also the chairman made the Akalis angry. Their argument was that its a religious matter of the Sikh community and the government should not interfere in the Sikh sangat.

Fadnavis is understood to have told Shah that the amendments to the Act were made at the behest of the Rashtriya Sikh Sangat, another frontal organisation of the RSS working in the Sikh community.

It is learnt that the Gurudwara Act would be amended shortly ensuring that an elected president is appointed and the state would not nominate six members and number would be brought down to two.

Shah, after talking to Fadnavis assured Badal that the state would not interfere in the affairs of Sikhs. Both parties are learnt to have agreed not to step on each other’s political turf.

Ends

Is the clock ticking for BJP ?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Is the clock ticking for BJP ?

Ramdev dumps BJP, Apna Dal threatens, Zafar Sareshwala distances

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec 26

There is no respite for the ruling BJP and suffering one set back after the other. If it lost a key Bihar ally last week-RLSP, today was the turn of Swami Ramdev who turned his back towards the saffron party. He declared in Madurai today that he won't support any person or oppose any party

and can't tell who will be the “Next PM”. Ramdev's comments appear to be a huge rebuff to PM Modi. He has been closely associated with the BJP, besides supporting its national election campaign in 2014. He said "Now the political situation is very difficult.”

Another shocker came from the Apna Dal in UP which is a key ally in the NDA. The party's chief Ashish Patel, whose wife Anupriya Patel is the Union Minister of State for Health, said BJP's partners in Uttar Pradesh are upset and the party must address the issue. He said in Mirzapur that the party must learn from its recent losses in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress formed the government. “ The SP-BSP alliance is a challenge for us. Allies in Uttar Pradesh are upset. Leadership at the centre must do something, else NDA (National Democratic Alliance) would suffer in the state," said Patel.

Obviously Apna Dal is also showing its teeth to BJP leadership with months to go for the 2019 general elections.

The biggest shocker of the day was Yoga teacher Ramdev, who went on to say that it would be difficult to say who will be the next prime minister. "Now the political situation is very difficult. We cannot say who will [be] the next prime minister or who will lead the country, but situation is very interesting..." Ramdev said in Tamil Nadu's Madurai.

"I am not focusing on politics," he said.

"We don't have a political or religious agenda but we want a spiritual country and a spiritual world. Through yoga and Vedic practices, we are making a divine, prosperous and spiritual India," said Ramdev.

What shocked the political watchers was Sareshwala's nuanced statement when he said, “I have been very closely associated with Prime Minister Narendra Modi for nearly 13 years now. However, my association was always limited to PM Narendra Modi and was never with the BJP – in fact, I have never even visited the party’s office in Gujarat or in Delhi.”

Zafar Sareshwala said that BJP has lost the plot and “things are slipping out of Narendra Modi’s hands.”

ends 

RS Deputy Chairman poll

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

RS Deputy Chairman poll

BJP drags feet as Opposition turns strident,

BJD, AIADMK neutral

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 30

The prospects of holding elections for the post of Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha receded with the Opposition parties launching fresh attack on the ruling NDA today. Contrary to the friendly conduct of the Biju Janata Dal, AIADMK & other small parties in the Lok Sabha towards the government, these parties joined ranks with the Congress, TMC & others in opposing the government on various bill. The way the Motor Vehicles and other two bills failed to pass the Rajya Sabha muster has made the ruling BJP re-think on holding the Deputy Chairman's poll.

The government was inclined to evolve a consensus for the post which fell vacant on July 2 and informal talks were underway with leaders of all political parties in the Rajya Sabha. Since the government is short of majority in a house of 244, it sounded out TMC & BJD for the post. However, both the parties refused to bite the bait and said the government should find a person who is acceptable of the entire house. Several names cropped up and Naresh Gujral of the Akali Dal was emerging as the choice. But the BJP leadership is keen that one of its own leaders to inducted to the post considering the fact that the house is evenly divided. The BJP wanted its senior Bhupendra Yadav to be elected for the post but the numbers eluded the party. The leadership was, however, trying to garner numbers in its favour.

However, going by today's developments in the Rajya Sabha when the house was forced to adjourn over the National Register of Citizenship issue in Assam, it is clear that the Upper House may not have a smooth running. If sources are to be believed, the Congress will raise the Rafale deal issue once the NRC case subsides. The Opposition parties are determined to take the government head-on.

It is in this context that the ruling dispensation not desirous to hold the polls during the Monsoon session of Parliament. The government came out with the agenda during the coming week in Rajya Sabha where there was no mention of the Deputy Chairman's poll. There are exactly nine working days left and senior BJP leaders are saying that there are precedents of the election being delayed.

In April 2012 the post of Deputy Chairman fell vacant during the Budget session in the UPA era when A Rehman Khan retired. But the polls were held during the Monsoon session. Even during the UPA-I in 2006, the polls were also delayed by 40 days. During 2004 there was delay as post fell vacant on June 10 but polls were held on July 2.

The BJP sources say that the panel of presiding officers is already in place and the House can function without a deputy chairman.

Fly on the Wall :Ajit Singh, Raju targeted in Air Asia case

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Ajit Singh, Raju targeted in Air Asia case

The timing of CBI's action against Air Asia (India) Limited (AAIL), a joint venture between the prestigious Tata Sons Limited and others

surprised many in the corridors of powers. The fact that Air Asia case was hanging fire for a long time and no one was interested in pursuing it either considering the fact that TATAs were partners in the project and it also involved Tony Fernandes, a Malaysian businessman of India origin. But changed political situation brought sudden alacrity at the CBI headquarters and everybody was under fire irrespective of the status. It now transpires that two former Civil Aviation Ministers, Ajit Singh and Ashok Gajapati Raju, are also under the scanner in the case apart from some officials of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) who also cleared the proposal. The CBI say that Air Asia was granted critical permissions to fly on international routes in violation of laid down rules and procedures which were arbitrarily amended by the then ministers and officials. Incidentally, Praful Patel was not the Civil Aviation Minister and had made way for Ajit Singh of RLD who headed the ministry from December 18, 2011 to May 25, 2014. The Air Asia submitted applications to the FIPB in February 2013 and received a formal approval in April 2013, followed by the no objection certificate in September 2013 and an Air Operating Permit in May 2014 permitting it to start domestic operations in India. Simultaneously, a secret cabinet note was sent on 27 February 2014 to the cabinet to amend the existing 5/20 rule for operation of international scheduled in civil aviation. Tony Fernandes, wanted the airline to fly on international routes and local partner Tata Sons through its nominee Venkataramanan, was supposed to lobby to obtain government approvals including a FIPB clearance and an amendment to then prevalent 5/20 civil aviation rule. The 5/20 rule stipulated that international flying licenses could be granted to airlines with five years' of domestic operations and a minimum of 20 aircraft in their fleet. The civil aviation ministry had sent a clarification in the form of a supplementary note on 5 March 2014 to the cabinet to relax the rules. But it could not be done as Lok Sabha polls had been announced on 5 March 2014. Finally, the 5/20 rule was relaxed in June 2016 when Ashok Gajapati Raju of the TDP was the Civil Aviation Minister. The Air Asia probe was hanging fire as the government didn't want to needle either Ajit Singh of the RLD or Raju who was NDA partner until a couple of months ago. Now that Ajit Singh has aligned with SP-BSP-Congress and TDP parted company with the NDA, there was no reason for the government to put the probe on the back burner.

TRS plans to open Federal front office

The Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao seem to be in a big hurry. If reports are true, he is set to open Federal Front office in Delhi in June-July. He is so desperate to cement the front of non-BJP and non-Congress parties, that he has decided to open an office in Delhi at his official residence at 23, Tuglak Road itself. The sprawling bungalow in Lutyens’ Delhi has been allotted to the CM and his daughter, K. Kavitha, a member of the Lok Sabha. KCR decided to open the office to give a fillip to like-minded parties after he held back to back meetings with several leaders including M. Karunanidhi, M.K. Stalin, former UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, former Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, H D Deve Gowda and others. KCR would be visiting Bhubaneswar later this month to meet Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik and also visit Mumbai to meet Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray and NCP leader Sharad Pawar. TRS MPs in Delhi are trying to get an appointment with BSP leader Mayawati. But she is somewhat cool to the idea of a federal front itself. KCR is planning to hold a round-table conference with different parties and experts at the time of the office inauguration in New Delhi.

Rahul changes tack, hugs Jagan Reddy now !

Gone are the days when Rahul Gandhi was stubborn, inflexible and a poor listener. Over the past couple of months, Congressmen and callers on him are feeling a sea-change in the attitude and conduct of the new Congress president. Now all this a thing of the past and he is responding to calls, available to party leaders and even shunning his notions against some of the leaders. He principle is to stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi at all costs from returning to power during 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In order to achieve this objective, he is willing to walk an extra mile which he did in Karnataka to the surprise of the BJP leadership. He even installed Kamal Nath as president of the Madhya Pradesh unit of the party despite personal dislike. Recently, he has given the go-ahead to explore all possibilities to tie up with YSR Congress leader Jagan Mohan Reddy. The Congress party was virtually a pocket borough edition of YSR Reddy in Andhra Pradesh. However, the Congress leadership refused to accept Jagan Mohan Reddy as the automatic choice for the Chief Ministership. This finally led to the extinction of the Congress itself from the state. Now Rahul Gandhi has signaled that Congress is willing to do business with YSR Congress. As part of this strategy, Digvijay Singh has been divested of the charge of Andhra Pradesh and former Kerala CM Omen Chandy has been appointed general secretary incharge. Chandy was very close to YS Chandrshekhar Reddy. Rahul Gandhi is pursuing the same strategy in every state with the sole objective to dislodge the BJP and concede even the prime position held by the party.

PM's call halted Naidu's NDA exit

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special report

PM's call halted Naidu's NDA exit

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, March 9

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's phone call to Andhra Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu helped in containing some damage as TDP deferred its decision to quit the NDA.

Highly placed sources said that the PM called up Naidu after the TDP ministers submitted their resignations and requested him to reconsider the painful decision.

Naidu reported to have said, "I waited for four years patiently that something will be done as promised in the reorganisation of Act of the state and promises will be fulfilled. Now I cannot reverse the resignations. But if you want to do something for the state, you have the opportunity to do so.”

Modi promised to revert back to him following which Naidu deferred his decision to quit the government only. A directive was also issued to all TDP Mps and ministers who had quit the government not to speak a word against the BJP or even the Modi government.

In fact, the language of the two TDP ministers after they submitted their resignations was so guarded that they merely termed it a “divorce due to circumstances.” It was neither here nor there. Obviously, the PM will have to take a political call on the issue and grant some relief which may be a “face-saver” for Naidu to change his stance.

There seem to be some re-thinking on the part of the BJP while dealing with Andhra affairs. Therefore, if it was Naidu who frantically calling up the PM on Wednesday, on Thursday, it was PM's turn to assuage the hurt Naidu by reaching out to him. It transpires that Modi and BJP president Amit Shah reviewed the political situation arising out of developments in Andhra. Shah is a hard-liner and believes in rebuilding the BJP in Andhra Pradesh and doesn't believe in surrendering to the regional parties. The local unit of the BJP is completely against Naidu and wanted to break the alliance since the beginning. The BJP has also received feelers from the YSR Congress though it may not enter into any pre-poll alliance with it.

Amit Shah wants to send a clear message to the cadre that the party can't be bullied by anybody whosoever he may be. However, the PM is of the view that TDP has been a pre-poll ally and divorce should not end up in a disaster. Hence, the phone call and efforts to retrieve the situation.

How far these efforts will succeed is too early to say as Naidu thinks that he will swing the 2019 polls on BJP's betrayal plant.

Fly on the Wall : Why Govt. going after Chidambarams

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Why Govt. going after Chidambarams 

It is no secret that the entire government machinery is going after P Chidambaram (PC)  and his son Karti in a big way. The INX Media case against Karti was of 2006-08 vintage when PC was the Finance Minister during his first stint.

Fly on the Wall:Naidu refusing to relent, TDP Ministers may quit Cabinet

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Naidu refusing to relent, TDP Ministers may quit Cabinet 

Alarmed over the public ultimatum given by Andhra Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu to quit the NDA if the Centre didn't give special status, the desperate BJP leadership found a way. Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu landed in Visakhapatnam to open the state investors summit on February 24. Normally, Prime Minister Modi is on the forefront of opening NDA-ruled states' Investors' summit. But he was extremely busy and hence Venkaiah Naidu went to assauge the hurt feelings. However, Chandrababu Naidu reportedly conveyed that his Union Ministers in the Central Cabinet will quit as a first step if special projects for Andhra were not announced.

Fly on the wall : Rahul Shows up, steals the show

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Shows up, steals the show

The sea-change in Rahul Gandhi was clearly visible when the Congress president showed up along with his mother Sonia Gandhi in Parliament's Central Hall this session. If he was coy during the Winter session, he was a different guy this time. He was candid, brutally frank and didn't mince words. If his mother was economical with words, Rahul Gandhi spoke, spoke and spoke and every word was “on-record”. And he didn't stop despite Sonia Gandhi holding his hand and dropped the bomb, “I can tell you, they are not coming back. It will be a Modi-less government in 2019.” While Sonia tried to stop him but Rahul went on with assessment of political situation saying the Congress is set to increase its tally by extra 70 Lok Sabha seats and this is the minimum figure. He said by the same reckoning the BJP is set to lose at least 70 seats and no ally will accept Modi as PM with BJP getting 200 less seats. Rahul Gandhi's assessment was that it would either be an NDA government headed by someone like the current home minister (Rajnath Singh) or it would be a congress led government at the Centre as it happened in 2004. He said the party is set to increase its tally in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and also in Southern states. He also had a pun saying who would have imagined this scenario a year ago. Rahul Gandhi also made it clear that BJP was trying to divide the country and fight next Karnataka polls on the Hindutva plank. But they won't succeed. Sonia Gandhi's former Political Adviser was throughout with Rahul and Sonia and others virtually mobbed them.

Four Rajya Sabha seats in 4 states up for the grab

All eyes are set on four crucial Rajya Sabha seats in four states as they considered “Lose”. These four seats are up for grab to either highest bidder or a man who can swing political alliances. Of the 61 Rajya Sabha seats for which biennial polls will be held soon, these four seats are most crucial. The composition of state assemblies in the states of Bihar, Karnataka, UP & West Bengal is such that no single party can win on its own these extra seats and candidates will require extra skills to get into the Upper House.

Is Sharad Yadav Opposition candidate in Bihar?

In Bihar, if behind the scenes activities are indication, Interesting scenario is emerging for six Rajya Sabha seats. While the RJD will win two, the BJP-JD(U) combine will easily get five seats. The big tussle is for the sixth seats as Congress has just 27 MLAs in the house 243. The sixth candidate will require 40 first preference votes of the MLAs. Who can garner these 13 extra votes. It transpires that King Mahendra who is a six term MP of the Rajya Sabha and retiring, wants Congress to give him the ticket and he will manage extra 13 votes. He has earlier been all the parties in the state. But his game-plan suffered a set back with senior Opposition leader Sharad Yadav throwing his hat in the ring too. He recently met Lalu Prasad Yadav in jail along with Babulal Marandi of JVM. The Congress may also lend its support to Sharad Yadav and he will manage three CPI-ML votes and other smaller parties. The BJP-JD (U) are also working hard to divide the Congress CLP in Bihar to grab this extra seat.

Congress' dilemma in West Bengal

Of the five Rajya Sabha seats, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will win four easily as it has 212 MLAs in the House of 294. But a winner needs 59 first preference votes while the Congress has 42 MLAs. It will require the support of 17 extra MLAs which may come from the CPM (26) or 11 others. The Congress had offered the seat to Sitaram Yechury but his party doesn't want any truck with it. The issue is will the Congress seek CPM's support to win the RS seat or enter into some understanding with Mamata Banerjee. A search is on who can bring Congress-Mamata together again.

Whom Deve Gowda will oblige in Karnataka?

Of the four RS seats in Karnataka, Congress will win two seats easily with the support of its 124 MLAs. The BJP with the support of 44 of its MLAs may also manage to win a seat. But the fourth seat is considered lose as Janata Dal (S) of Deve Gowda has 40 MLAs and winner will require 56 votes. There are 16 Independents. Rajeev Chandrashekhar who is an Independent MP of the Rajya Sabha having won the seat with the support of JD(S) and BJP in 2012, may try his luck again.

9th seat is up for grab in UP

Biennial poll for nine Rajya Sabha seats will take place in UP and BJP with the support of 325 MLAs will get 7 seats easily. The Samajwadi Party will get one having the support of 47 MLAs. All eyes are now on the 9th seats which the BJP is determined to win as it is capable of garnering lose votes from Congress (7), BSP (19) and others (5). The Opposition parties can also get the 9th seat if they come together. Seach is on for a person who can unite them all.

Vasundhara Won’t be sacked

Various theories are doing the rounds how Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia lost two Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat with a record margin in Rajasthan and took the sheen off the BJP's campaign of Congress-Mukt Bharat. One theory is that the BJP's Central leadership which is against the Chief Minister did not help her. It was strange that several secular parties like the BSP, AIMIM etc who contested every Assembly seat in Gujrat and other byelections, did not field their candidates. It became a direct battle between the BJP and Congress. The BJP central leadership says she chose candidates of her choice and didn't listen when advised. However, the high command has decided not to remove Vasundhara. However, her wings will be clipped considerably and new BJP state unit chief will be sent. It is no secret that Modi-Shah don’t like her and this defeat has pushed her to a corner.

Modi-Shah team didn’t like P K Dhumal. Result, party won Himachal but Dhumal lost. A top leader said, “We don't remove our women !”

Fly on the wall : Now Modi Mantra for Governors too

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Now Modi Mantra for Governors too

Prime Minister Modi is understood to have expressed the view that the Governors should play active role rather than merely launching books, open exhibitions, attend cultural functions etc etc. No doubt, the governors are not expected to play political role in the state they are deputed by the President. But they should strive to find a role in nation building. It transpires that the PM shared his thoughts with the President, Ram Nath Kovind sometime ago as Governors report to the President on a daily basis. Of course, the Union Home Ministry under Rajnath Singh plays a key role while dealing with the states & Governors. It now transpires that the President was extremely enthusiastic about the idea and decided to take it up in the Committee of Governors which meets at the Rashtrapati Bhawan on a regular basis. The PM wanted that Governors should play a key role in development of the state and should extensively travel within the state and go to districts. Since the Chief Ministers are extremely busy in political management and other affairs, the governors should interact with people and should be seen as agents of change. Since they are the representatives of the Centre, they should take forward the development mantra. They should draw a line between politics and development. Accordingly, a concept paper emerged and the committee of governors submitted a report: Governors- Ambassadors of Change in the society. The issue was discussed at a conference of governors as well last year. But no one got a wind of it. Now that the report has come, a detailed guideline is likely to be issued to be followed by the Governors. The PM doesn't want governors to sit in Raj Bhawans and have good time. They should travel and reach out to the people and create their own identity by connecting with the people and become their mentors. The Chief Ministers of BJP ruled states may not mind this over-reach by the governors. But non-NDA states may not accept it. Even 75-plus year-old governors are also not very enthusiastic of Modi's plan as they want to live a retired political life.

10 Ministers-in-waiting needed for 10 ASEAN Leaders

A search is on for 10 most competent Ministers of State out of a total number of 37 MoS who are to deputed as Minister-in-waiting for 10 Heads/Prime Ministers of 10 ASEAN countries. As per the protocol, all heads of 10 ASEAN countries have to be treated at par. Therefore, ministers-in-waiting will have to be of the same rank for these 10 heads and no MoS with Independent charge or a Cabinet rank minister will be deputed for them. These 10 Ministers of state are being carefully chosen by the Prime Minister himself as it is for the first time that ten heads of countries will be Guest of Honour at the Republic Day parade at Rajpath. These MoS will accompany their respective heads throughout their stay in India who will also attend ASEAN Summit on January 25. It transpires that the PM will return from Davos on January 24 after addressing the Plenary session on January 23 night. Modi wants Republic Day celebration in 2018 to be "remembered through the ages".

The ministries of Defence & External Affairs are working round the clock to cope with the situation as the PM is personally monitoring the arrangements. Even the Dais Plan at Rajpath venue is personally chalked out by Modi. The ministers are M J Akbar, Vijay Goel, Anupriya Patel, P P Chaudhary, Satya Pal Singh, S S Ahluwalia, Jayant Sinha and others.

Changes in RSS unlikely, for now

Intense speculation is on in the RSS whether Bhayyaji Joshi who is number two in the hierarchy, will stay as Sarkarvah (General Secretary). An affable and tough RSS top leader was not keeping well for the past some time. Though he has fully recovered, speculation in rife in Nagpur about his continuation. Sources say Bhaiyyaji Joshi himself is not keen to stay beyond March when the issue will come up. Joshi has held the post for three consecutive terms. However, RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat doesn't want him to go particularly when the RSS is in the midst of massive expansion plans. The BJP, one of the RSS' frontal organisation, also needs massive support for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The RSS also has a challenge to keep coordination among its other 50-odd front organisations. The differences between the BJP and Swadesh Jagran Manch, VHP and others also needs tactful handling. Bhaiyyaji Joshi has been handling all this for a long time. Though there is a competent team of four joint general secretaries comprising of Dattatreya Hosabale, Suresh Soni, Krishan Gopal and V Bhagaiah and also Manmohan Vaidya who is head of the ideological wing of the RSS. But Bhagwat won't like to make any changes at this juncture.

Yogi angry with Centre on new DGP

UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is extremely angry with the Centre. Reason ? There is a deafening silence in North Block over the appointment of Om Prakash Singh as the new UP Director-General of Police. An announcement was made 10 days back that CISF DG Om Prakash Singh will be the new UP DGP. O P Singh is the second senior-most IPS officer of the UP cadre and Yogi Adityanath specially requested Rajnath Singh to relieve the officer immediately. The Union Home Minister reported to have cleared the appointment and it was expected that O P Singh will join as DGP on January 3. But all went quiet and no one willing to say anything. Yogi doesn't have the courage to ring up the PM and ask where is the file pending and why. The silence of the PMO suggest that the Department of Personnel may be exploring other possibilities. When it was pointed out that O P Singh is junior to another IPS officer Praveen Kumar, it was explained that Praveen Kumar has just three months to retire. The Centre doesn't permit states to give extensions to the DGP beyond three months. Yogi explained that he can't have DGPs every six months in the state. But Modi was not amused. It is said the Centre is not too impressed with the credentials of O P Singh. It is said that Yogi is relying more on officers of Rajput community and this is not sending the right signal. If the SP and BSP governments resorted to appointing Yadavs and persons of a particular community, no useful purpose will be served by following the same pattern. Now the officers of of a particular caste are being appointed in key positions in the state. The Centre is already worried about the law and order situation in UP. But Yogi is unwilling to relent. 

Fly on the wall : No Taj Mahal memento by the President

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

No Taj Mahal memento by the President

Why blame the UP Government or BJP hardliners for discarding Taj Mahal as the 7th wonder of the world and erase it from booklet meant for tourists. Long before this was done, the Rashtrapati Bhawan had discontinued the practice of giving Taj Mahal's replica as memento to visiting dignitaries. Gone are the days when Taj Mahal used to be given as precious gift to VIP visitors. But one must remember, this has not been done by Shri Ram Nath Kovind who was elected President with the support of the NDA in July this year. On the contrary, Ram Nath Kovind has proved to be a person of his firm beliefs. He recently said in Lucknow that if UP is known for Kumbh Mela, its also known for the Taj Mahal. This made some of the BJP leaders uneasy. The fact is that the practice of giving Taj Mahal replica was dispensed with by Kovind's predecessor Pranab Mukherjee. It transpires that Mukherjee chose to do away with the practice after suggestions emerged during informal discussions with the Modi dispensation. It was felt that the visiting dignitaries be offered books such as Gita or mementos reflecting the ancient civilization & culture of the country rather than of the Mughal era. Though no one from the government suggested to Mukherjee that he shouldn't give Taj Mahal replica as gift. The government was aware that Mukherjee is very sensitive to such issues and didn't say anything directly. However, Mukherjee was also aware of the sensitivities of the Modi government and keen to maintain cordial relations with it. Some say that he was hoping for second term and this step was aimed at keeping the NDA in good humour. Mukherjee stopped giving Taj replica as gift and Kovind has continued with the practice. Its a different matter that the Yogi Adityanath government in UP is now working hard to dispel the notion that its against the Taj. However, there is no dearth of those demanding that the old glory of Shiva temple be restored and Taj Mahal be buried in history.

Amit Shah batting for Hindutva

The Modi government may be completely focused on “Vikas” (development). But BJP president Amit Shah is clear in his thoughts and vision that the party cannot dump its Hindutva plank. He gave a clue to his thinking recently during an informal chat on Diwali Milan when he said, “I need my Hindutva, its my lifeline.” In fact, the BJP finds that the Congress is walking an extra mile to woo the community rather than focusing too much on the minorities. The fact that Rahul Gandhi is visiting temples and shrines regularly is an indication that the Congress is changing tack. “So why shall BJP abandon its time-tested policy?” wondered the leader. In fact, the UP government's recent order banning consumption of non-veg food in Vridavan and Barsana, birth places of Krishna and Radha, is an indication of BJP pursuing its policy stridently.

Its Modi VS Rahul in Gujrat

Its Modi VS Rahul battle in Gujrat now. No one cares who is the Congress face for the Chief Minister's post or whether Rupani will be stay as CM after the polls. For the first time in 40 months, its the first time that the polls are being fought between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi. If Modi is contemplating to address 50 rallies during eight days of campaigning, Rahul is not lagging behind either. He may not address five rallies a day like Modi. But he has earned some brawny points recently due to wit and sarcasm and has made a mark too. Irrespective of the outcome of the Gujrat Assembly polls, Rahul Gandhi has arrived on the scene as he is making right noises these days.

How Patel got Bharat Ratna !

How Sardar Patel was conferred Bharat Ratna ? There is an interesting tale. And no one including the BJP or erstwhile Jan Sangh can take credit for it. Of course, the Congress was never keen to confer the highest national award to the departed leader. It so happened that Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in May 1991 in the midst of the General Elections in the country. T N Seshan who was the Chief Election Commissioner postponed the polls for some time and there was a pressure on the Chandra Shekhar government to confer Bharat Ratna on Rajiv Gandhi immediately. R Venkatraman was the President of India then and some discussions took place between them. It was agreed that Sardar Patel be also conferred Bharat Ratna. The BJP may be taking pot shot at Congress for ill treating its Iron Man.” But how the present dispensation treating its own “Lauh Purush” is for all to see. So why blame the Congress ?

Govt. to go soft in the Valley, for now

After telling the National Investigation Agency (NIA) to go soft in its operations in the trouble-torn Valley in J&K, the army has also been told avoid raiding civilian homes just on the basis of suspicion. “Unless there is specific intelligence information, unnecessary gun battles be avoided,” the Army was told. This has been done to facilitate the Special Representative of the Centre, Dineshwar Sharma, to undertake his peace mission in the state. Sharma has made a special request to the PMO that he would require calm in the Valley as he would like to initiate a dialogue with all the stake-holders. The NIA will not file the chargesheet against the Hurriyat leaders immediately giving some leeway to Geelani & company. There is already a talk to have are-look at the controversial AFSPA.

You down jack, I down jack

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Analysing the upcoming election (July 17) of the President of India may be like replaying the tape of an old cricket match. Because there is not much surprise left in the contest between Ram Nath Kovind, a career politician and the ruling NDA’s official candidate, and Meira Kumar, UPA’s, or rather the Congress’, official candidate, daughter of former deputy prime minister Jagjivan Ram, diplomat, former Lok Sabha Speaker, and an amateur rifle shooter. Kovind is way out front in the race, which generally follows party lines. And, in the arithmetic of voting strength, the NDA starts from a winning score of 63 per cent; it may go up, not down, in the weeks ahead.

But it is still an interesting election. For the BJP, the choice of candidate holds a major surprise for the assorted scaremongers who had begun counting the Doomsday by the annulment of the Constitution’s secular commitments, and expected Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP president Amit Shah and the RSS to rummage through the nether world and pick up a Hindutva-warrior as the Presidential candidate. The political know-alls in the stretch between Raisina Hill and the gossip-filled bar and cafe of the India International Center were convinced that the apparent rejection by Team Modi of BJP bigwigs like L. K. Advani, M. M. Joshi and Sushma Swaraj for the prestigious (and powerless) job of the President had an ominous hidden meaning—that of eventually ‘Hinduising’ the Constitution with the help of a like-minded President. As if, given an encouraging pat in the back, any of the above persons would be shy to prove their Hindutva ! Apparently, it did not occur to the ‘cognoscenti’ that if the Constitution were to be twisted and mangled right down to its “basic structure”, its operation room could be the Parliament, and not the Rashtrapati Bhavan. The President is a cipher after all.

The fact that Ramnath Kobind is anything but a Swayamsewak—his only link with the RSS being that he had gifted to it his (none too pricey) ancestral home at Derapur in Uttar Pradesh—tells nothing much. If Modi is really harbouring some radical plans about governance, he can carry it through regardless of who is the President. Just as he did not say a word to President Pranab Mukherjee before ordering the scrapping of 86 per cent of the money in circulation. However, while the choice of Kovind is an obvious pointer to the BJP’s 2019 strategy of leaving no dalit sect unturned, it has a sub-text, which is that the dalit face the BJP under Modi and Shah is looking for is the quiet and sober type, not Mayawati’s kind of a restless soul who’d put caste at the centre of every discourse. Both Mayawati and Kovind are law graduates but the latter had practised law for years and, unlike Mayawati, joined a political party which is anything but someone’s personal property. On the other hand, to Mayawati, politics is a weapon of self-aggrandizement.

Just as Kovind’s choice underlines certain aspects of Modi’s mind, the selection of Meira Kumar by the Congress—which is the short-hand for Sonia Gandhi—is also indicative of its priorities. Kumar is dalit only by name but is a prominent member of the capital’s elite club that has all along set the rules of the game of politics. In her young days, she grew up a Lutyens’ Delhi girl and never left it at her present age of 72, having been elected five times to the Lok Sabha and then nominated as Speaker of the Lok Sabha. And, like all clever denizens of Lutyens’ city, she used her influence to get her father’s 6, Krishna Menon Marg residence allotted to herself for 25 years. Her selection as the Congress’ presidential candidate speaks volumes for the elitist bias that has crippled the grand old party, with choice of leadership at every stage being determined by pedigree and rank in society. Meira Kumar may not go down as badly as Lakshmi Sahgal in 2002, who bagged merely 107,366 votes against winner A. P. J. Kalam’s 922,884. The UPA’s performance could be a lot better if Sonia Gandhi showed a bit of imagination and started the ‘trick’ herself, forcing Modi to be the ‘taker’. Instead, the Congress allowed Modi to deal first, as in a game of bridge, and the latter played Dalit, his strongest hand. As successive elections in Uttar Pradesh are showing, economic and demographic changes are making the backwards dump their traditional guardians, Congress and BSP, with a big chunk of them tasting BJP’s hospitality. If Sonia Gandhi had a better sense of the game, she could in fact accept CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechuri’s advice and put up Gopal Krishna Gandhi as UPA candidate. That would have left Modi with no option to tapping the dark and thick seam of bigotry, and hatred of Mahatma Gandhi, in BJP’s sub-soil. Besides, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, who is supporting Kovid as he’s too eager to get his uneasy alliance partner Laloo Yadav off his back, by keeping Modi pleased, if necessary, would have thought many times over if he had to oppose a scion of the Mahatma and stay on the side of his abusers. That has a cost, of expulsion from the respectable class. But there is a silver lining in the Congress game-plan; it may finally bring SP-BSP-RLD-Congress on the poll table during 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Modi should have a reason to worry.

However, Presidential election cannot gauge public opinion as its electors comprise those already elected. Still, it is an occasion to get a sense of the kind of people running the majority group among the country’s lawmakers, big and small; their values and the respect they have for the illustrious countrymen whom majority of the people respect. In this sense, the Congress’ role is disappointing. For Modi’s Dalit, all it could offer was its own Dalit. And one like them, to be sure.  

A new code of conduct for guvs!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive report 

A new code of conduct for Governors !

Modi wants Governors play active role in society

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, May 23

If all goes as per plan in the government, Governors in 29 states will have a new code of conduct in place.

Though there already exists a code of conduct for Governors as laid down in the Constitution and also evolved during annual meeting of the Governors & Lt. Governors held under the aegis of the Rashtrapati Bhawan.

It now transpires that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is working on a new Code of Conduct for Governors as he feels that Governors should play a more active role in the society since he is a non-political person. Modi is of the opinion that governor being the representative of the State is an ideal person to help in projecting the right image of the political class. Since most of the Governors are the appointees of the ruling political party, they invariably carry a political legacy. Therefore, their conduct in public and private has to be an example for the society. Modi is of the firm view that Governor Houses cannot be places of recreation and live life king size.

If some of the Governors are playing a more active role on social media network highlighting their contribution in various welfare activities, its because of the proddingof the Prime Minister.

  

Modi is reported to have also discussed the issue with some of the Governors and top party functionaries. Amongst the NDA appointed governors, Modi is highly appreciative of UP Governor Ram Naik. He is senior-most amongst the Governors appointed by the NDA and a party veteran. But he is extremely active in social functions, activities of the NGOs, interactions with the various professional groups, and other activities.,

He feels that Governors may be holding a Constitutional post and they may not directly be under the government and have no political role. But in essence they are representative of the ruling party. Therefore, anything they do will have a bearing on the ruling party.

During his interaction with some of the governors Modi asked if they have been visiting universities, colleges and interacting with the students of various age groups separately. He asked Bihar governor Ram Nath Kovind if he had gone to the Chhat Puja in his state. When Kovind replied that he didn’t, Modi said if he had gone for it, he would have got people’s appreciation. It was a non-political function. Modi wants governors to attend sports events. Modi feels that Governors should play a pro-active role to enhance the credibility ofthe Centre. He wants Governors to do some thinking and set an example.

Though there are five states where governors are yet to be appointed and dual charge if being held by one Governor. Padmanabha acharya (Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland), E S Laxmin Narasimhan (AP & Telangana), Vidyasagar Rao (Maharashtra & Tamil Nadu), Banwarilal Purohit (Meghalaya and  Assam) and Om Prakash Kohli Gujrat Gujrat & Madhya Pradesh).

N N Vohra in Jammu & Kashmir is also on extended term while the term of Shriniwas Dadasaheb Patil in Sikkim  is ending. Modi is now taking his time in selecting new governors and in no hurry to fill vacancies.

Ends

AIADMK to support BJP’s presidential candidate

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A Lokmat Exclusive report

AIADMK to support BJP’s presidential candidate

Modi gets shot in the arm;  Dy Speaker Thambidurai key negotiator

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, April 24

The BJP is set to get a shot in its arm as the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu has signaled its support to NDA’s presidential nominee.

Irrespective of infighting within the two AIADMK camps and current negotiations to resolve the crisis, the ruling dispensation has communicated to the BJP that it will support its candidate in the Presidential polls to be held in July this year.

  

The AIADMK’s signal of support has given the BJP big comfort as the ruling NDA is still short of 25000 popular votes to get its own candidate elected. Though Opposition parties are fragmented and still working out modalities to come together to filed a common candidate. But they have to get the support of several regional ruling parties in states including AIADMK, TRS, BJD, TMC etc. Amongst these non-BJP parties, the AIADM is crucial as it has 135 MLAs and 50 MPs in parliament constituting almost 60,000 popular votes. The electorate for presidential polls comprises of 11 lakh plus votes and the NDA has 5.25 lakh votes. Therefore, the complete support for the NDA will give a big boost to the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

  

It transpires that Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha M Thambidurai had a meeting with the Prime Minister and the BJP Amit Shah as well. Unconfirmed report suggested that he conveyed to the BJP leaders that the ruling AIADMK KPS camp having the support of 123 MLAs and 50 MPs in Lok Sabha & Rajya Sabha will support the NDA’s presidential candidate. The AIADMK (OPS) having 12 MLAs is already backing the BJP. The AIADMK is rather keen to formally join the NDA, these sources say. After the death of Jayalalitha, there is no leader worth a salt in the AIADMK who has national ambitions. The OPS camp is already close to the Centre and the ruling KPS camp wants a patch up to get the two leaves symbol de-frozen.

However, the BJP leadership is in no hurry to admit the AIADMK despite pressure from M Thambidurai. The AIADMK MPs have virtually no role despite having the biggest contingent in parliament. The AIADMK leaders are keen to join the Modi government and share power. It is learnt that formal announcement by the AIADMK will be made sometime next month once formula is worked out.

Prez Polls: Oppn may field Sharad Yadav

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive  News Report 

President’s poll :  Opposition may field Sharad Yadav as its candidate

  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, April 11

With the BJP mobilizing its 33 allies to get its own Presidential candidate elected in the polls slated for July this year, the Opposition parties have also geared up to field a “common candidate” against the BJP nominee.

  

Janata Dal (U) leader Sharad Yadav’s name has emerged as a consensus candidate for the President’s post. Highly placed sources say that a preliminary discussion has already been held in this regard between Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury. Both leaders felt that the Opposition parties should together field a candidate for the President’s post where the BJP is still short of a majority. It was also stressed that if most of the small & regional parties like TMC, Biju Janata Dal, TRS, YSR (Congress), JD (S), JMM, DMK & AIADMK and others come together,  the Opposition candidate can emerge victorious. It was Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who first spoke to Sitaram Yechury in this regard and he held informal talks with the Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav and then met Rahul Gandhi. The RJD leader, Lalu Prasad Yadav is also supportive of the idea of putting up a joint candidate.

Though Sharad Yadav’s name has not been finalized as yet. But considering the prevailing political situation in the country, a candidate has to be either from backward or scheduled caste or scheduled tribe community. Though the Congress Party was initially of the opinion that Vice President Dr Hamid Ansari be put up for the post of President as a joint Opposition candidate. But it was felt that the candidate should be outside the Congress Party if Opposition unity is to be achieved.

The NCP leaders have also been sounded in this regard and they have shown their inclination to support Sharad Yadav for the post. The Opposition parties are aware that the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are have already roped in 33 political parties across the country in the NDA and expanding their base. The NDA already has 48% of the popular votes in its kitty and its candidate will make it to the post unless all the remaining parties join hands in supporting the common Opposition candidate.

But one thing is clear; the Congress & opposition parties won’t allow the BJP to get its candidate without a contest. “We will give BJP run for its money in the presidential poll,” said a senior Opposition leader familiar with political developments.

'Luv and Kush' winning battles

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the inseparable duos from Modi’s years as Gujarat chief minister. Like Luv and Kush, the warrior brothers, their partnership is mainly forged on (electoral) battlegrounds. But it has matured over the decades, with their voyage from Sabarmati to Ganga. Just how much power they pack in their punch came to light, for the second time after the 2014 general election, along the entire upper stretch of the Ganga last week, with the BJP campaign steered by the duo. They captured 379 of the 473 seats in the two assemblies of Uttarakhand (70) and Uttar Pradesh (403). That’s more than half the land washed by the “sacred river”.

Like Luv and Kush, they have issues to settle. The fighter brothers of mythology longed to right the wrong done to their mother, Sita, by their father, Ram. Modi and Shah are on a mission to establish their BJP as the next national alternative, after crushing the earlier one, Congress, and squelching its single binding factor, the Gandhi dynasty. During the earlier NDA rule, BJP’s efforts to do it was half-hearted, at best, and the end of A.B.Vajpayee’s government in 2004 put the Congress and the dynasty again at the top for a whole decade. Before taking charge of the BJP’s 2014 combat, Modi had put Shah in charge of the party in UP, as the two could not fight separately indeed. They must draw their bow backwards at once and release the arrows together.

After the phenomenal victory in 2014, in which the Congress was humbled to only 44 seats in the Lok Sabha, Luv and Kush had to catch a breath as they faced reversal in the 2015 assembly election in Bihar. It’s not that Modi and Shah had run out of their magic. Modi’s oratory was grand as ever and Shah picked up candidates and party workers from caste groups with the alacrity of the pelican snatching a fish from the lake’s surface. But nothing worked as the opposition had buried their historic internal feuds to form a Chinese wall against BJP.

This time round, the Modi-Shah team was meticulous and lucky. They left nothing to chances and learnt from the humiliating defeat in Bihar. In Bihar, the BJP worked hard to woo the Yadavs thinking that they will be angry with Nitish Kumar being projected as Chief Ministerial candidate. In the process, it ignored the other OBCs in Bihar and the Congress-RJD-JD(U) alliance proved fatal. The Luv-Kush duo knew the consequences of BJP losing UP and left nothing to chances. The strategy was in place from April last year when an insignificant OBC leader Keshav Prasad Maurya was appointed as UP BJP Chief. Three months later in July several OBC first timers MPs from UP were inducted in the Modi Council of Ministers. The luck favoured Luv-Kush duo again when some behind the scenes efforts to form a Bihar-type Mahagathbandhan (umbrella alliance of anti-BJP parties) in Uttar Pradesh failed. Then came the generational conflict raging between Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav, Chief Minister. This left the carefully crafted alignment between OBC groups and Muslims all but defunct. Besides, Mayawati, supremo of BSP, the party of Dalits, carried such long and bitter record of enmity with Mulayam Yadav that a BSP-SP coalition was out of the question. 

This left Mayawati with her 11% Jatavs and truncated Muslims. Shah began to work on the non-Jatavs in a big way. Despite an alliance between Congress and SP in the state, hammered out between Akhilesh and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, the portly BJP chief tapped its backward constituents for lines of fissure. The Modi-Shah duo re-established the OBC link that BJP had lost with the political eclipse of former chief minister Kalyan Singh (he is now Rajasthan Governor). Shah ensured that Kalyan Singh’s grandson gets the Assembly ticket and any OBC leader worth a salt given primacy.

Shah’s long hunt for non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav yielded a handpicked army that could bypass the caste silos that Congress, SP or BSP could occupy. Though community-wise voting behaviour reports are not available yet, there is little doubt that BJP could make deep inroads into non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBC groups. There was little hope, though, that Muslims would press the EVM button in favour of BJP. But Modi succeeded in created a ray of hope amongst the Muslim women by telling them that he would end the regressive Triple Talaq. Secondly, Modi’s campaign speeches remained refreshingly ‘development-oriented’ in the early phases of the seven-phase poll. But as polling moved eastward, Modi invoked his trademark divisive rhetoric while leaders like Yogi Adityanath did the rest to consolidate non-Muslim votes.

For Shah, revenge tasted best when served cold. His swagger, though muted, hit the jackpot as he said that in the first two stages of the poll, in which 125 seats were at stake, his party had won 115, against his own claim of 90 and rout predicted by the Opposition & the media. The BJP’s social engineering paid rich dividends in UP where BSP is routed, RLD wiped out and Congress decimated. The situation is so pitiable that Mayawati will be out of even Rajya Sabha in April 2018 when her term ends.

Though Congress has retained Punjab, a Sikh (non-Hindu) majority state. But the entire BJP leadership was praying for its win as it never wanted AAP to win the border state. The AAP’s rout in Goa has also gladdened the Duo’s hearts. In Manipur, inhabited by tribal people, it is facing extinction from the mainline states where Hindu identity can be political currency. Modi and Shah, the ‘Luv-Kush’ duo of BJP seems unstoppable in the 2019 general election.