Fly on the wall : Rahul Shows up, steals the show

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Shows up, steals the show

The sea-change in Rahul Gandhi was clearly visible when the Congress president showed up along with his mother Sonia Gandhi in Parliament's Central Hall this session. If he was coy during the Winter session, he was a different guy this time. He was candid, brutally frank and didn't mince words. If his mother was economical with words, Rahul Gandhi spoke, spoke and spoke and every word was “on-record”. And he didn't stop despite Sonia Gandhi holding his hand and dropped the bomb, “I can tell you, they are not coming back. It will be a Modi-less government in 2019.” While Sonia tried to stop him but Rahul went on with assessment of political situation saying the Congress is set to increase its tally by extra 70 Lok Sabha seats and this is the minimum figure. He said by the same reckoning the BJP is set to lose at least 70 seats and no ally will accept Modi as PM with BJP getting 200 less seats. Rahul Gandhi's assessment was that it would either be an NDA government headed by someone like the current home minister (Rajnath Singh) or it would be a congress led government at the Centre as it happened in 2004. He said the party is set to increase its tally in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and also in Southern states. He also had a pun saying who would have imagined this scenario a year ago. Rahul Gandhi also made it clear that BJP was trying to divide the country and fight next Karnataka polls on the Hindutva plank. But they won't succeed. Sonia Gandhi's former Political Adviser was throughout with Rahul and Sonia and others virtually mobbed them.

Four Rajya Sabha seats in 4 states up for the grab

All eyes are set on four crucial Rajya Sabha seats in four states as they considered “Lose”. These four seats are up for grab to either highest bidder or a man who can swing political alliances. Of the 61 Rajya Sabha seats for which biennial polls will be held soon, these four seats are most crucial. The composition of state assemblies in the states of Bihar, Karnataka, UP & West Bengal is such that no single party can win on its own these extra seats and candidates will require extra skills to get into the Upper House.

Is Sharad Yadav Opposition candidate in Bihar?

In Bihar, if behind the scenes activities are indication, Interesting scenario is emerging for six Rajya Sabha seats. While the RJD will win two, the BJP-JD(U) combine will easily get five seats. The big tussle is for the sixth seats as Congress has just 27 MLAs in the house 243. The sixth candidate will require 40 first preference votes of the MLAs. Who can garner these 13 extra votes. It transpires that King Mahendra who is a six term MP of the Rajya Sabha and retiring, wants Congress to give him the ticket and he will manage extra 13 votes. He has earlier been all the parties in the state. But his game-plan suffered a set back with senior Opposition leader Sharad Yadav throwing his hat in the ring too. He recently met Lalu Prasad Yadav in jail along with Babulal Marandi of JVM. The Congress may also lend its support to Sharad Yadav and he will manage three CPI-ML votes and other smaller parties. The BJP-JD (U) are also working hard to divide the Congress CLP in Bihar to grab this extra seat.

Congress' dilemma in West Bengal

Of the five Rajya Sabha seats, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will win four easily as it has 212 MLAs in the House of 294. But a winner needs 59 first preference votes while the Congress has 42 MLAs. It will require the support of 17 extra MLAs which may come from the CPM (26) or 11 others. The Congress had offered the seat to Sitaram Yechury but his party doesn't want any truck with it. The issue is will the Congress seek CPM's support to win the RS seat or enter into some understanding with Mamata Banerjee. A search is on who can bring Congress-Mamata together again.

Whom Deve Gowda will oblige in Karnataka?

Of the four RS seats in Karnataka, Congress will win two seats easily with the support of its 124 MLAs. The BJP with the support of 44 of its MLAs may also manage to win a seat. But the fourth seat is considered lose as Janata Dal (S) of Deve Gowda has 40 MLAs and winner will require 56 votes. There are 16 Independents. Rajeev Chandrashekhar who is an Independent MP of the Rajya Sabha having won the seat with the support of JD(S) and BJP in 2012, may try his luck again.

9th seat is up for grab in UP

Biennial poll for nine Rajya Sabha seats will take place in UP and BJP with the support of 325 MLAs will get 7 seats easily. The Samajwadi Party will get one having the support of 47 MLAs. All eyes are now on the 9th seats which the BJP is determined to win as it is capable of garnering lose votes from Congress (7), BSP (19) and others (5). The Opposition parties can also get the 9th seat if they come together. Seach is on for a person who can unite them all.

Vasundhara Won’t be sacked

Various theories are doing the rounds how Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia lost two Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat with a record margin in Rajasthan and took the sheen off the BJP's campaign of Congress-Mukt Bharat. One theory is that the BJP's Central leadership which is against the Chief Minister did not help her. It was strange that several secular parties like the BSP, AIMIM etc who contested every Assembly seat in Gujrat and other byelections, did not field their candidates. It became a direct battle between the BJP and Congress. The BJP central leadership says she chose candidates of her choice and didn't listen when advised. However, the high command has decided not to remove Vasundhara. However, her wings will be clipped considerably and new BJP state unit chief will be sent. It is no secret that Modi-Shah don’t like her and this defeat has pushed her to a corner.

Modi-Shah team didn’t like P K Dhumal. Result, party won Himachal but Dhumal lost. A top leader said, “We don't remove our women !”

Time to deliver

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A 43-year-old woman died after she came under the wheels of a bus while crossing road during the wee hours of the day. Her fault ! She had no toilet at home and was forced to cross the road every morning to use the facility on the other side. Though the incident had taken place in North West Delhi's posh Model Town area where Jhuggi-Jhopris dwellers are a pampered lot due to vote bank politics pursued by parties (be it Congress, Aam Admi Party or the BJP), the news was buried inside in leading newspapers.

 
The unfortunate death could have been averted had the lone community toilet not been demolished by area lords due to "stench". No amount of protests by hundreds of Jhuppi-jhopriwalas could move the Delhi Urban Shelter Improvement Board (DUSIB) under the Delhi government to prevent its demolition. The BJP which is ruling three Municipal Corporations of Delhi didn't move its finger either. The Congress leadership, after losing the plot in Delhi to AAP, is too busy these days with seeking the resignations of Sushma Swaraj, Vasundhararaje Scindia and Shivraj Singh Chouhan. No heart bled for the poor woman despite TV channels running promotional advertisements by Vidya Balan & other celebrities 24X7 at the cost of hundreds of crores of rupees to promote construction of toilets across the country. Rather, the Delhi Police under Thakur Saheb as Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh is popularly called, failed to trace the driver of the bus. The Police also was unable to explain as to why it did not intervene in the matter when the community toilet was demolished by the area lords and a complaint was filed with it by the toilet caretaker. The DUSIB which functions directly Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal washed its hands off saying it was not aware that community toilet had been demolished.

 
If one wants to check the success of Narendra Modi's ambitious Swachh Bharat campaign in the first year of its launch in Delhi, it's certainly a big No. Despite making tall promises, the three MCDs have failed to construct a single toilet as part of the massive cleanliness drive. As Modi's flagship project completes one year on August 15, not a single toilet has been built by the three MCDs. Of course, 112 toilets are under-construction and a proposal to build another 94 is pending. Welcome to achhe din in the capital city of India.
In the sixty weeks since June 1 last year, there is spurt in crime against women in Delhi with 6 rapes and 13 molestations per day taking place. Women are particularly insecure. Single women are hardly to be seen at public places in the evening. And equally unsafe are the children; among 53 mega-cities, the National Capital Region has been regarded as the most unsafe for children. Not that Delhi was ever quite a law abiding city, but the spike in crime during the past one year is perplexing. The police say it is due to increased awareness and online registration of FIRs that more cases are being reported. That may be partly correct but the absence of authority or a power struggle in Delhi is visible, never experienced earlier.

 
One only wonders how it can happen in the Capital which has the distinction of having a Prime Minister who is workaholic, hardly sleeps, a hard task-master and whose dictum is minimum government, maximum governance. His men are chosen on the basis of performance and he is a result oriented no-nonsense person.
Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is a Prime Minister in waiting and willing to wait. He fought for the CM's post as stridently as Modi fought within and outside his own party for the PM's. Kejriwal also has to deliver rather than engaging in a daily brawl either with the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi or the Centre.

 
Rahul Gandhi is also fighting to regain the ground he single-handedly lost after back-seat driving with his mother for ten long years. After the Congress was routed and reduced to a mere 44 MPs in the Lok Sabha, he is banking on the dwindling lung power and hoping for a miracle. And why not. When his uncle late Sanjay Gandhi could perform this feat in 1980 when he dislodged the Janata Party government within three years of coming to power in the post- Emergency era General Elections, why can't he four decades later.

Gone are the days when the BJP was a collective enterprise... 

Modi faced last year's poll independent of the party.

 Kejriwal is also a practitioner of 'party-less election'.

 
However, in the melee of bitter power struggle, the Delhite is suffering and so is country's image. Modi is the Chief Executive Officer of the country including Delhi which is a Union Territory, is his responsibility.

 
Gone are the days when the BJP was a collective enterprise with every member or supporter offering his input. Modi faced last year's poll independent of the party and said so clearly in his first address to the MPs in the Central Hall of Parliament as well.

 
He changed the rule of the game. He won all State Assemblies, be it Haryana, Maharashtra or Jharkhand seeking votes in his name. He fumbled in Delhi for some strange reasons by projecting Kiran Bedi, a rank-outsider, as Chief Ministerial candidate and paid the price. Perhaps, he failed to realize that Arvind Kejriwal is the most consistent practitioner of the rising cult of  'part-less election' too.

AAP is not much of a political party in the old sense. It has no 'bhavan',  unlike Congress or BJP. Except Kejriwal's, its other faces flit in and out of the party when they please, the departure of handsome, and raucous, Shazia Ilmi, Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan etc. AAP is a Kejriwal show all the way.

Modi and Kejriwal fought elections as individuals. If they have worn garlands on their shoulder, they should be ready for egg on their face if Delhi remains what it is today.

 
(The author is National Editor, Lokmat group)





 

The silence of Modi

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The Lalit Modi fiasco has in the last few weeks brought into question some notions about NDA government that were taken as given. First, its executives, be at the Centre or the outposts, are persons of integrity unlike what could be said about their UPA predecessors. Second, BJP, the core party of the NDA, has come out of its misplaced mould and has put an impressive array of women leaders in important positions; in other words, women of integrity and quality have come forward to neutralise its long-derided gender skew. Sadly, all these presumptions about the ‘Modi sarkar’ have been turned on its  head by an avalanche of revelations about all Modi’s men, or women, rather.