BJP in a Bind on advancing Assembly polls in three states

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special Report

BJP in a Bind on advancing Assembly polls in three states

Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana on the radar

"Time of strengthen NDA” says Amit Shah

wooing Marandi in Jharkhand

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec 24

The BJP leadership is in a bind as to what it should do about Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand where Assembly polls are due between October-December 2019.

The core policy group in the BJP is studying the pros & cons of advancing the polls in these states and hold them simultaneously with the Lok Sabha in April-May.

Though the BJP contested the Assembly polls in these states on its on and successful formed governments in Haryana and Jharkhand on its own. In Maharashtra, it entered into a post-poll alliance with the Shiv Sena for the assembly though it secured 122 seats while Sena got 63 in the Assembly of 288. Though both were partners in the Lok Sabha polls, they fell out during the Assembly polls. However, they formed the government together in the state and have been estranged partners as Sena could never reconcile of losing the post of the Chief Minister to BJP. The view is that the BJP may swing the Assembly polls again in these states in its favour by riding on the Modi wave if they are held along with the Lok Sabha.

However, the reasons for advancing the polls in these three states differ from state to state.

In Maharashtra, there is a strong feeling that BJP must go with Shiv Sena in the Lok Sabha polls. But the Sena wants assembly polls be held along with Lok Sabha and share Assembly seats on a 50:50 sharing formula. The Sena wants that the post of the Chief Ministers to be shared for two and a half years each irrespective of number of seats won by any of the partners.

The BJP leadership was on a high until it lost thee Hindi speaking states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh to Congress. Since December 12, the BJP leadership is trying to retain allies and conceding their demands too. It wants to retain its existing allies and working hard to expand the NDA. It knows that losing Sena would be a set back in the present scenario.

However, the other view is that the BJP should not concede the post of the Chief Minister to Sena irrespective of the compulsions. A senior member of the BJP Core Group said he is of the firm view that BJP should not succumb to the Sena antics and should not hesitate to go it alone in the Lok Sabha polls. There is no need to advance the Assembly polls. This will send a strong political message. However, no final decision in this regard has been taken either way and the BJP is keeping all options open.

The BJP president Amit Shah has been quoted by core group leader as saying, “Its time to strengthen the NDA.”

In Jharkhand, the BJP trying to woo Babulal Marandi, president Jharkhand Vikas Morcha which secured 8 Assembly seats out of 81 and 10% popular votes. Its a different matter that the BJP took away six of its MLAs in its fold and he is angry since then. Now the BJP doesn't want him to go over to the Congress-JMM alliance. He wants the post of the Chief Minister. In fact, he was with the BJP way back in 2000 and state's chief minister too. But parted company later. The BJP is willing to make him a Cabinet minister at the centre right away.

Ends 

Fly on the wall : Rahul Shows up, steals the show

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Shows up, steals the show

The sea-change in Rahul Gandhi was clearly visible when the Congress president showed up along with his mother Sonia Gandhi in Parliament's Central Hall this session. If he was coy during the Winter session, he was a different guy this time. He was candid, brutally frank and didn't mince words. If his mother was economical with words, Rahul Gandhi spoke, spoke and spoke and every word was “on-record”. And he didn't stop despite Sonia Gandhi holding his hand and dropped the bomb, “I can tell you, they are not coming back. It will be a Modi-less government in 2019.” While Sonia tried to stop him but Rahul went on with assessment of political situation saying the Congress is set to increase its tally by extra 70 Lok Sabha seats and this is the minimum figure. He said by the same reckoning the BJP is set to lose at least 70 seats and no ally will accept Modi as PM with BJP getting 200 less seats. Rahul Gandhi's assessment was that it would either be an NDA government headed by someone like the current home minister (Rajnath Singh) or it would be a congress led government at the Centre as it happened in 2004. He said the party is set to increase its tally in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and also in Southern states. He also had a pun saying who would have imagined this scenario a year ago. Rahul Gandhi also made it clear that BJP was trying to divide the country and fight next Karnataka polls on the Hindutva plank. But they won't succeed. Sonia Gandhi's former Political Adviser was throughout with Rahul and Sonia and others virtually mobbed them.

Four Rajya Sabha seats in 4 states up for the grab

All eyes are set on four crucial Rajya Sabha seats in four states as they considered “Lose”. These four seats are up for grab to either highest bidder or a man who can swing political alliances. Of the 61 Rajya Sabha seats for which biennial polls will be held soon, these four seats are most crucial. The composition of state assemblies in the states of Bihar, Karnataka, UP & West Bengal is such that no single party can win on its own these extra seats and candidates will require extra skills to get into the Upper House.

Is Sharad Yadav Opposition candidate in Bihar?

In Bihar, if behind the scenes activities are indication, Interesting scenario is emerging for six Rajya Sabha seats. While the RJD will win two, the BJP-JD(U) combine will easily get five seats. The big tussle is for the sixth seats as Congress has just 27 MLAs in the house 243. The sixth candidate will require 40 first preference votes of the MLAs. Who can garner these 13 extra votes. It transpires that King Mahendra who is a six term MP of the Rajya Sabha and retiring, wants Congress to give him the ticket and he will manage extra 13 votes. He has earlier been all the parties in the state. But his game-plan suffered a set back with senior Opposition leader Sharad Yadav throwing his hat in the ring too. He recently met Lalu Prasad Yadav in jail along with Babulal Marandi of JVM. The Congress may also lend its support to Sharad Yadav and he will manage three CPI-ML votes and other smaller parties. The BJP-JD (U) are also working hard to divide the Congress CLP in Bihar to grab this extra seat.

Congress' dilemma in West Bengal

Of the five Rajya Sabha seats, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will win four easily as it has 212 MLAs in the House of 294. But a winner needs 59 first preference votes while the Congress has 42 MLAs. It will require the support of 17 extra MLAs which may come from the CPM (26) or 11 others. The Congress had offered the seat to Sitaram Yechury but his party doesn't want any truck with it. The issue is will the Congress seek CPM's support to win the RS seat or enter into some understanding with Mamata Banerjee. A search is on who can bring Congress-Mamata together again.

Whom Deve Gowda will oblige in Karnataka?

Of the four RS seats in Karnataka, Congress will win two seats easily with the support of its 124 MLAs. The BJP with the support of 44 of its MLAs may also manage to win a seat. But the fourth seat is considered lose as Janata Dal (S) of Deve Gowda has 40 MLAs and winner will require 56 votes. There are 16 Independents. Rajeev Chandrashekhar who is an Independent MP of the Rajya Sabha having won the seat with the support of JD(S) and BJP in 2012, may try his luck again.

9th seat is up for grab in UP

Biennial poll for nine Rajya Sabha seats will take place in UP and BJP with the support of 325 MLAs will get 7 seats easily. The Samajwadi Party will get one having the support of 47 MLAs. All eyes are now on the 9th seats which the BJP is determined to win as it is capable of garnering lose votes from Congress (7), BSP (19) and others (5). The Opposition parties can also get the 9th seat if they come together. Seach is on for a person who can unite them all.

Vasundhara Won’t be sacked

Various theories are doing the rounds how Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia lost two Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat with a record margin in Rajasthan and took the sheen off the BJP's campaign of Congress-Mukt Bharat. One theory is that the BJP's Central leadership which is against the Chief Minister did not help her. It was strange that several secular parties like the BSP, AIMIM etc who contested every Assembly seat in Gujrat and other byelections, did not field their candidates. It became a direct battle between the BJP and Congress. The BJP central leadership says she chose candidates of her choice and didn't listen when advised. However, the high command has decided not to remove Vasundhara. However, her wings will be clipped considerably and new BJP state unit chief will be sent. It is no secret that Modi-Shah don’t like her and this defeat has pushed her to a corner.

Modi-Shah team didn’t like P K Dhumal. Result, party won Himachal but Dhumal lost. A top leader said, “We don't remove our women !”