Congress upset as Mamata on poaching spree

• Adhir Ranjan Blasts TMC at CWC meeting
• Bhupesh Baghel takes a dig at Mamata Too

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

New Delhi, Oct 18

The mega plan of Congress president Sonia Gandhi to unite all like-minded parties may go for a toss as Trinamool Congress leader and West Bengal Chief Minister is on a poaching mission these days.

Mamata Banerjee is not only trying to poach the BJP leaders but winning over senior leaders of the Congress Party itself throwing to the winds the bonhomie seen a couple of months ago.

The Congress Working Committee's extended meeting which concluded yesterday saw the friendship between the Congress-TMC being thrown to the dustbin.

The TMC leaders have poached two prominent leaders of the Congress from Assam, Goa and other states. Mamata won over Congress Mahila Morcha Chief Sushmita Dev) and gave her Rajya Sabha seat.

Similarly, she also lured former Goa Chief Minister Luizinho Falerio into her party and TMC decided to contest state assembly polls on her own.

It was in this context that CWC leaders blasted Mamata Banerjee yesterday. Leader of the Congress in Lok Sabha Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee was hijacking many Congress leaders with an aim to create a 'Congress (Mamata) and pitting them against the 'Congress (I)'.

Adhir Ranjan went on to say that the TMC is primarily functioning as the B team of the BJP.

Earlier, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel had tweeted against poaching done by the TMC of the Congress leaders. Without naming TMC, Baghel had said, “ People looking for a national alternative based on poaching INC functionaries who can't win their own seats, is in for big disappointment.”

It is not immediately known if Sonia Gandhi commented on the views expressed by some members.

Fly on the wall | Mamata's game of 50

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mamata's game of 50
The Game-2024 for the Lok Sabha polls has already begun. While the Congress Party is desperately working hard to revive itself and putting its entire might to win a couple of states in the ensuing round of Assembly polls early next year, the BJP is trying hard to defend its citadel in four states; UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. Punjab is being watched very closely as its an open game with pollsters predicting a win for the dark horse AAP though its early days. These polls are also crucial for some of the regional players like SP, and BSP who have been facing BJP's onslaught for the past seven years in UP. But for most of the regional Satraps in the East, West and Southern regions, these Assembly polls are not of much consequence.

In the East in West Bengal, Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is rather waiting for the Congress to suffer a setback. She knows that she is not a player in North Indian politics and remains unruffled as her honeymoon with the Congress is virtually over. She is now on her own trip with poll strategist Prashant Kishore advising her actively. If grapevine has it, she is now targeting to secure 50 Lok Sabha seats during the 2024 parliamentary polls as she can be a player in any non-BJP government formulation. This is a huge target considering her appeal confined to West Bengal with 42 Lok Sabha seats. She hopes to polarize the state the same way as Modi did in 2014 and 2019. Rather, she will have an added appeal to the voters saying; vote for me as I can be PM, a first Bengali. She may be anywhere between 34-37 Lok Sabha in 2024. But to win extra 13-15 seats, is an Herculean task. She is working hard to replace Congress in the North East comprising 22 Lok Sabha seats. She has already brought senior Congress leader Sushmita Dev into the party and was rewarded with a Rajya Sabha seat to influence voters in Assam and Tripura. She is also making a strategy to get a couple of seats each in Odisha, Jharkhand and even Bihar and enter into strategic adjustments with parties in states where Bengali voters are in large numbers.

The DarK Horse Uddhav
Until the other day, NCP Supremo Shaarad Rao Pawar was the only name that always cropped up for the post of PM probable. But knowledgeable sources say that unassuming Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray could be a new player in the Game-2024. He has changed the entire culture and ethos of Shiv Sena during the past two years in power. Uddhav is in the driver's seat and shown to the people how a coalition government is run. With no one around to take on the mighty BJP juggernaut Uddhav's style of working has given some hope as well. He has been a successful manager, measured in his responses, doesn't mince words either and knows when to keep quiet.

He is managing two very ambitious leaders, Sharad Pawar and Nana Patole with tremendous skill. Political pundits say if India gets a hung parliament, Uddhav is the man to watch. Uddhav has mastered the art of retaining his hard line Hindutva credentials and at the same time running a secular government without big jerks.

He continues to be close to the RSS, goes to Ayodhya, meets Modi and still keeps his secular partners happy. In addition, he also takes pride in his Maratha identity. The Sena has also shed its anti-minority violent image too. In a way, Uddhav Thackeray can be India’s first secular Hindu nationalist. It will be difficult for the BJP to use the minority appeasement bogey against a Hindu party. In addition, big corporate houses in Mumbai also like him. Interestingly, they are the same houses who bow before Modi in Delhi, But keep Thackeray in good humour in Mumbai.

Rising graph of Stalin
After two powerful southern leaders; K Kamraj and J Jayalalitha, failed to grab power in Delhi, DMK's M K Stalin is contemplating trying his luck. But he is not in a hurry and is slowly consolidating his position. He is looking beyond 2024 even if there is a hung house three years down the line. Poll strategist Prashant Kishore is a common factor between Stalin and Mamata Banerjee. If Mamata is targeting a 50 seats game, he is not far behind either. Currently, he is creating an identity raising issues like “federal structure” etc without talking politics directly. He is busy mobilising non-BJP Chief Ministers on key issues.

Fly On The Wall | Pawar’s huge huge dilemma

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Pawar’s huge huge dilemma

Sharad Pawar is facing a huge dilemma in his political career for sometime now. Though he is virtually running the Maharashtra government with a remote-control button, he remains a dissatisfied person. He is desperate to play a major role in the national political scene. This will be possible only when Congress is agreeable to his being leading the Opposition pack or the other like-minded Opposition parties (minus the Congress) accept him as the Leader. In addition, Pawar also wants his political legacy to be transferred to his daughter Lok Sabha MP Supriya Sule in Maharashtra. This may, however, bring him in conflict with his nephew Ajit Pawar who has been working on the ground in the state for decades. The NCP cadre in Maharashtra sees Ajit Pawar as the natural choice in the state while Supriya Sule may play a role at the national level. Secondly, Sonia Gandhi is not in a mood of quitting the post despite a considerably weakened Congress & the UPA. Rahul Gandhi is not in a mood to step aside either. Will he achieve these objectives if he joins hands with BJP ? No one is sure.

Bengal is BJP’s Turning point!

West Bengal election results on May 2 will be a turning point for the BJP in more ways than one. A BJP win will not only open the flood gates for the party's pan-India reach but consolidate Modi-Shah grip on the entire political spectrum in the years to come. It is not that the Assembly polls in Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry are not important in BJP’s scheme of things. But BJP’s full focus is on snatching West Bengal from the TMC while retaining Assam and playing a second fiddle to NR Congress in Puducherry. In Kerala, the BJP’s priority is to defeat the Congress and won’t mind CPM retaining its bastion. The BJP has opened its gates for the Congressmen in Kerala in a big way. Knowledgeable sources in the corridors of power here say a tacit understanding may have taken place with the Left. The Left lent a helping hand to BJP in West Bengal in lieu of it. The latest slogan in West Bengal left is, “Aage Ram, Pore Baam (Ram first, Left later).” It means to dislodge Mamata first and let the BJP win this time around. The BJP had played a similar game in Punjab in 2017 when it ensured Capt Amrinder Singh’s win to defeat the AAP. Therefore, it is all the more baffling as to why Rahul Gandhi fell into the trap of the Left parties in West Bengal and had spurned Mamata’s offer for a tie-up.

Mamata on a weak wicket

TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee may be a born fighter but many battles in the past. But in the 2021 polls, she entered the battleground on a weak wicket. There are many factors including 10-years’ of anti-incumbency, desertions by many powerful leaders her ship, Abhishek Banerjee factor (the rise of Mamata’s nephew in the party) and success of BJP in polarizing the state voters by consolidating the Hindus on the one hand. Whether the Muslim voters have been divided or not will be known on May 2. But one should not forget the Owaisi factor that cost the RJD-Congress dearly in Bihar. Last but not the least, the PM’s visit to the historic temple of the Mathuas in Bangladesh has given BJP a big edge. Mathuas play a decisive role over 40-45 seats. And one should not forget the role played by the central agencies like the CBI, ED, NIA, NCB in every election. Is the tide turning? Wait until May 2.

BJP aims big after Bengal

A BJP win in West Bengal may give the party a clear majority in the Rajya Sabha by 2022 thereby giving PM Modi an opportunity to implement his ambitious “One Nation One Poll” plans. The BJP has 95 MPs in Rajya Sabha and a workable majority in the House of 245. Many regional parties like the BJD, YSR Congress, TDP and DMK have virtually no role to play in the given situation. The Assembly polls in 5 states are equally important for the entire Opposition and the Congress in particular. A TMC win may lead to the emergence of the United Front against the BJP. The role of the Congress Party will depend on its performance in Kerala, Assam and Puducherry. It is precisely because of this very reason that many prominent leaders like Nitish Kumar, Sharad Pawar and others are patiently waiting in the wings.

TMC issues notice to K D Singh, Congress to act against 4 absent MPs

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

TMC issues notice to K D Singh,

Congress to act against 4 absent MPs

In all 42 MPs were absent in RS

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 31

The Congress Party in Rajya Sabha is contemplating to issue a show cause notice to four of its Rajya Sabha MPs who were absent at the time of voting on the Triple Talaq Bill in the Rajya Sabha. These MPs did not come to the voting despite the whip was issued. Similarly, the TMC has issued a whip to its MP K D Singh who did not attend the RS when voting took place. K D Singh explained through the SMS to party leader Derek Obrian that he was suddenly fallen sick and got admitted to the hospital. The party will take a call on his absence.

Mukut Mithi, Vivek Tankha, Pratap Singh Bajwa and Rajiv Biswal of the Congress were absent despite the whip. They too will face the music.

No other Opposition party issued the whip to its members that they must present themselves and vote against the bill. As many as 42 MPs to be precise absented at the time of voting yesterday on the Triple Talaq Bill in the Rajya Sabha. While 11 of the AIADMK MPs are considered friendly to the NDA, rest are opposition parties. It is shocking that all four MPs of the Bahujan Samaj Party, six of the 12 SP MPs were also absent.

Of course, the PM spoke to some chief ministers personally to secure their support, but BJP leaders Bhupendra Yadav and C M Ramesh won the praise of the leadership for their role in ensuring these huge absensions. C M Ramesh is a former TDP MP who joined the BJP. They were reporting to Amit Shah who kept on briefing Modi about the development. The 11-member AIADMK opposed the Bill but walked out. The Janata Dal (U) six MPs in the Rajya Sabha also walked out at the time of voting and TRS's six MP s also walked out.

BJP breaks Opposition parties in Rajya Sabha, Gains Majority to get RTI amendment bill passed

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP breaks Opposition parties in Rajya Sabha, 

Gains Majority to get RTI amendment bill passed

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 25

The BJP has done it in Rajya Sabha what was unthinkable until the other day. The BJP and the NDA have the support of 102 members in a House of 240 members and the Opposition had 138 MPs on its side. But it created history when it secured the support of 117 votes and the contentious Right to Information (Amendment) Bill was passed.

Interestingly, the Congress and some of the Opposition parties walked out of the house realising that they would lose the vote. However, they took the plea that some of the ruling party members were trying to influence members when the voting was going on.

The support of 117 showed that the government is now comfortable in the Rajya Sabha too.

Though the Congress successfully mustered the support of TMC, NCP, SP, BSP, Left parties and others. But the BJP succeeded in persuading non-allies like the AIADMK, YSR Congress and even the TRS to support the Bill. Congress leaders Jairam Ramesh conceded defeat while making his intervention during the debate saying, “I am aware that telephone calls were made to the state Capitals to muster a majority”. The YSR Congress has two MPs. It si learnt that the two MPs of the PDP and lone MP of the JD-S preferred to remain absent at the time of voting. Surprisingly, even two member TDP also was soft when its leader spoke in the Rajya Sabha.

The Janata Dal (U) which had categoricallystated its opposition to the Triple Talaq Bill, decided to vote in favour of the amendment.

Another ineresting fact also emerged that except for the BJP and its allies parties, no other Opposition party except the Congress issued a whip to its members to attend the House when voting takes place. It is largely because of this very reason that fewer number of members were present in the house when the voting took place.

The TRS wanted an assurance from the government that it would maintain the independence of the Information Commission which was galdly given by Minister of State in the PMO Dr Jitendra Singh.

Ends

BJP votes for TMC,

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP votes for TMC, 

Congress faces humiliating defeat

Voting was for ESIC Board member

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 10

In an unprecedented move, the BJP members of the Rajya Sabha overwhelmingly voted for arch-rival TMC candidate Dola Sen today.

The BJP high command directed its MPs that they should vote for the TMC candidate Dola Sen who was embroiled in a multi-corner contest for the membership of the Employees State Insurance Corporation. A member of the Rajya Sabha is chosen on the board of the ESIC. The BJP had not fielded its candidate and the Opposition parties were supposed to field a common candidate. But the Congress refused to support the TMC candidate Dola Sen and thought it will grab the post on the basis of sheer numbers. Dola sen, however, got 90 votes out of 156 total votes polled. Interestingly, the TMC has only 13 votes in the rajya Sabha. Pradeep bhattacharya of Congress faced worst humiliation when he lost. The CPM had also fielded E Karim who polled 8 votes.

This exposed chinks in the armory of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha and the BJP took full advantage.

RS Deputy Chairman poll

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

RS Deputy Chairman poll

BJP drags feet as Opposition turns strident,

BJD, AIADMK neutral

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 30

The prospects of holding elections for the post of Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha receded with the Opposition parties launching fresh attack on the ruling NDA today. Contrary to the friendly conduct of the Biju Janata Dal, AIADMK & other small parties in the Lok Sabha towards the government, these parties joined ranks with the Congress, TMC & others in opposing the government on various bill. The way the Motor Vehicles and other two bills failed to pass the Rajya Sabha muster has made the ruling BJP re-think on holding the Deputy Chairman's poll.

The government was inclined to evolve a consensus for the post which fell vacant on July 2 and informal talks were underway with leaders of all political parties in the Rajya Sabha. Since the government is short of majority in a house of 244, it sounded out TMC & BJD for the post. However, both the parties refused to bite the bait and said the government should find a person who is acceptable of the entire house. Several names cropped up and Naresh Gujral of the Akali Dal was emerging as the choice. But the BJP leadership is keen that one of its own leaders to inducted to the post considering the fact that the house is evenly divided. The BJP wanted its senior Bhupendra Yadav to be elected for the post but the numbers eluded the party. The leadership was, however, trying to garner numbers in its favour.

However, going by today's developments in the Rajya Sabha when the house was forced to adjourn over the National Register of Citizenship issue in Assam, it is clear that the Upper House may not have a smooth running. If sources are to be believed, the Congress will raise the Rafale deal issue once the NRC case subsides. The Opposition parties are determined to take the government head-on.

It is in this context that the ruling dispensation not desirous to hold the polls during the Monsoon session of Parliament. The government came out with the agenda during the coming week in Rajya Sabha where there was no mention of the Deputy Chairman's poll. There are exactly nine working days left and senior BJP leaders are saying that there are precedents of the election being delayed.

In April 2012 the post of Deputy Chairman fell vacant during the Budget session in the UPA era when A Rehman Khan retired. But the polls were held during the Monsoon session. Even during the UPA-I in 2006, the polls were also delayed by 40 days. During 2004 there was delay as post fell vacant on June 10 but polls were held on July 2.

The BJP sources say that the panel of presiding officers is already in place and the House can function without a deputy chairman.

Fly on the wall : Rahul Shows up, steals the show

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Shows up, steals the show

The sea-change in Rahul Gandhi was clearly visible when the Congress president showed up along with his mother Sonia Gandhi in Parliament's Central Hall this session. If he was coy during the Winter session, he was a different guy this time. He was candid, brutally frank and didn't mince words. If his mother was economical with words, Rahul Gandhi spoke, spoke and spoke and every word was “on-record”. And he didn't stop despite Sonia Gandhi holding his hand and dropped the bomb, “I can tell you, they are not coming back. It will be a Modi-less government in 2019.” While Sonia tried to stop him but Rahul went on with assessment of political situation saying the Congress is set to increase its tally by extra 70 Lok Sabha seats and this is the minimum figure. He said by the same reckoning the BJP is set to lose at least 70 seats and no ally will accept Modi as PM with BJP getting 200 less seats. Rahul Gandhi's assessment was that it would either be an NDA government headed by someone like the current home minister (Rajnath Singh) or it would be a congress led government at the Centre as it happened in 2004. He said the party is set to increase its tally in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and also in Southern states. He also had a pun saying who would have imagined this scenario a year ago. Rahul Gandhi also made it clear that BJP was trying to divide the country and fight next Karnataka polls on the Hindutva plank. But they won't succeed. Sonia Gandhi's former Political Adviser was throughout with Rahul and Sonia and others virtually mobbed them.

Four Rajya Sabha seats in 4 states up for the grab

All eyes are set on four crucial Rajya Sabha seats in four states as they considered “Lose”. These four seats are up for grab to either highest bidder or a man who can swing political alliances. Of the 61 Rajya Sabha seats for which biennial polls will be held soon, these four seats are most crucial. The composition of state assemblies in the states of Bihar, Karnataka, UP & West Bengal is such that no single party can win on its own these extra seats and candidates will require extra skills to get into the Upper House.

Is Sharad Yadav Opposition candidate in Bihar?

In Bihar, if behind the scenes activities are indication, Interesting scenario is emerging for six Rajya Sabha seats. While the RJD will win two, the BJP-JD(U) combine will easily get five seats. The big tussle is for the sixth seats as Congress has just 27 MLAs in the house 243. The sixth candidate will require 40 first preference votes of the MLAs. Who can garner these 13 extra votes. It transpires that King Mahendra who is a six term MP of the Rajya Sabha and retiring, wants Congress to give him the ticket and he will manage extra 13 votes. He has earlier been all the parties in the state. But his game-plan suffered a set back with senior Opposition leader Sharad Yadav throwing his hat in the ring too. He recently met Lalu Prasad Yadav in jail along with Babulal Marandi of JVM. The Congress may also lend its support to Sharad Yadav and he will manage three CPI-ML votes and other smaller parties. The BJP-JD (U) are also working hard to divide the Congress CLP in Bihar to grab this extra seat.

Congress' dilemma in West Bengal

Of the five Rajya Sabha seats, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will win four easily as it has 212 MLAs in the House of 294. But a winner needs 59 first preference votes while the Congress has 42 MLAs. It will require the support of 17 extra MLAs which may come from the CPM (26) or 11 others. The Congress had offered the seat to Sitaram Yechury but his party doesn't want any truck with it. The issue is will the Congress seek CPM's support to win the RS seat or enter into some understanding with Mamata Banerjee. A search is on who can bring Congress-Mamata together again.

Whom Deve Gowda will oblige in Karnataka?

Of the four RS seats in Karnataka, Congress will win two seats easily with the support of its 124 MLAs. The BJP with the support of 44 of its MLAs may also manage to win a seat. But the fourth seat is considered lose as Janata Dal (S) of Deve Gowda has 40 MLAs and winner will require 56 votes. There are 16 Independents. Rajeev Chandrashekhar who is an Independent MP of the Rajya Sabha having won the seat with the support of JD(S) and BJP in 2012, may try his luck again.

9th seat is up for grab in UP

Biennial poll for nine Rajya Sabha seats will take place in UP and BJP with the support of 325 MLAs will get 7 seats easily. The Samajwadi Party will get one having the support of 47 MLAs. All eyes are now on the 9th seats which the BJP is determined to win as it is capable of garnering lose votes from Congress (7), BSP (19) and others (5). The Opposition parties can also get the 9th seat if they come together. Seach is on for a person who can unite them all.

Vasundhara Won’t be sacked

Various theories are doing the rounds how Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia lost two Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat with a record margin in Rajasthan and took the sheen off the BJP's campaign of Congress-Mukt Bharat. One theory is that the BJP's Central leadership which is against the Chief Minister did not help her. It was strange that several secular parties like the BSP, AIMIM etc who contested every Assembly seat in Gujrat and other byelections, did not field their candidates. It became a direct battle between the BJP and Congress. The BJP central leadership says she chose candidates of her choice and didn't listen when advised. However, the high command has decided not to remove Vasundhara. However, her wings will be clipped considerably and new BJP state unit chief will be sent. It is no secret that Modi-Shah don’t like her and this defeat has pushed her to a corner.

Modi-Shah team didn’t like P K Dhumal. Result, party won Himachal but Dhumal lost. A top leader said, “We don't remove our women !”

Kovind to get more than 6 lakh votes, says BJP war room

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

exclusive copy 

Kovind to get more than 6 lakh votes, says BJP war room

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, June 19 

Tantrums thrown by Shiv Sena notwithstanding, the BJP presidential candidate Ram Nath Kovind is set to win hands down as NDA has the support of more than six lakh popular votes.

Of the 10,98,882 votes, a winning candidate needs 5,49 442 votes to win the presidential poll slated for July 17. The BJP and its committed allies already have 5,06,834 votes in its kitty minus Shiv Sena’s 25,893 votes. Sena has 63 MLAs and 21 MPs in Parliament. An MP carries 708 votes each while an MLA carries votes according to the strength of the Assembly and population of the state.

The BJP  has also been extended support by the TRS, YSR Congress and AIADMK. They together have 98120 popular votes. Assuming Shiv Sena remains defiant, the BJP candidate will poll 6,04,954.

There are other non-UPA parties like the TMC, BSP, BJD and INLD who have not opened their cards as yet. The Janata Dal U has already welcomed the move by the BJP to field Kovind. In this scenario, the victory of Kovind is a foregone conclusion, say BJP sources sitting the war room calculating every vote.

Ends 

BJP Presidential nominee by June 21

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special Report 

Presidential candidate

BJP presidential nominee by June 21

Amit Shah meets Naidu & others

3-member ministerial panel working in full swing

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, June 13

The three member ministerial group to hold consultations with the allies and the Opposition parties for the selection of the Presidential candidate held its first meeting this morning.

The meeting was held at the residence of  Urban Development and I&B Minister M Venkiah Nadu, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Home Minister Rajnath Singh. Interestingly, the BJP president Amit Shah was also present at the meeting.

It is learnt that the name of the BJP’s presidential candidate will be finalized early next week and all consultation process with allies and Opposition parties will be completed by then. An elaborate plan was discussed today to finalise the roadmap, from selection to filing nomination papers, for the party’s Presidential candidate before June 21-22. 

It was somewhat an irony that Venkiah Naidu who was in the reckoning for the President’s post, has been made a member of the selection committee itself.

According to informed sources, the top leaders met to evolve a strategy as who will speak to which party and which groups. While Arun Jaitley will talk to leaders of Opposition parties in the Rajya Sabha since he has a very high level of personal relationship with them. He has a great rapport with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Derek Obrian of TMC, Ram Gopal Yadav (Samajwadi Party), Satish Mishra (BSP), Praful Patel (NCP) and others. He has high level of comfortable relations with Anand Sharma (Congress) and deputy chairman P J Kurien. Amongst the allies, he is close to the Akali Dal leadership and a large number of Independents and smaller parties.

Venkiah Naidu has primarily been charge of talking to all political parties of southern India including Pudducherry and Chief Ministers of various states. The TDP, TRS, various factions of the AIADMK, Janata Dal (S), Rajnath Singh will handle Jammu & Kashmir and North Eastern State Parties and chief ministers.

The task is not only to focus on the Members of Parliament of Lok Sabha & Rajya Sabha but also MLAs who will count in a big way. There is a whole battery of smaller parties in states and Independents.

The objective is to talk to all these MPs, MLAs and parties to obtain their in-principle support for the BJP nominee and thereafter talk to the Opposition parties.

As per plan, the ruling NDA will complete the process this week end and thereafter the process of consultations with the Opposition will begin.

The last date for filing nominations is June 28.

Meanwhile, the government constituted  a committee of secretaries headed by Cabinet Secretary P K Sinha to oversee arrangements for the swearing-in-ceremony of the new president on July 25.

Ends 

AIADMK to support BJP’s presidential candidate

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A Lokmat Exclusive report

AIADMK to support BJP’s presidential candidate

Modi gets shot in the arm;  Dy Speaker Thambidurai key negotiator

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, April 24

The BJP is set to get a shot in its arm as the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu has signaled its support to NDA’s presidential nominee.

Irrespective of infighting within the two AIADMK camps and current negotiations to resolve the crisis, the ruling dispensation has communicated to the BJP that it will support its candidate in the Presidential polls to be held in July this year.

  

The AIADMK’s signal of support has given the BJP big comfort as the ruling NDA is still short of 25000 popular votes to get its own candidate elected. Though Opposition parties are fragmented and still working out modalities to come together to filed a common candidate. But they have to get the support of several regional ruling parties in states including AIADMK, TRS, BJD, TMC etc. Amongst these non-BJP parties, the AIADM is crucial as it has 135 MLAs and 50 MPs in parliament constituting almost 60,000 popular votes. The electorate for presidential polls comprises of 11 lakh plus votes and the NDA has 5.25 lakh votes. Therefore, the complete support for the NDA will give a big boost to the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

  

It transpires that Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha M Thambidurai had a meeting with the Prime Minister and the BJP Amit Shah as well. Unconfirmed report suggested that he conveyed to the BJP leaders that the ruling AIADMK KPS camp having the support of 123 MLAs and 50 MPs in Lok Sabha & Rajya Sabha will support the NDA’s presidential candidate. The AIADMK (OPS) having 12 MLAs is already backing the BJP. The AIADMK is rather keen to formally join the NDA, these sources say. After the death of Jayalalitha, there is no leader worth a salt in the AIADMK who has national ambitions. The OPS camp is already close to the Centre and the ruling KPS camp wants a patch up to get the two leaves symbol de-frozen.

However, the BJP leadership is in no hurry to admit the AIADMK despite pressure from M Thambidurai. The AIADMK MPs have virtually no role despite having the biggest contingent in parliament. The AIADMK leaders are keen to join the Modi government and share power. It is learnt that formal announcement by the AIADMK will be made sometime next month once formula is worked out.

What is your reason to suspect?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

“I do not want to desert dignity and reason, but if you desert dignity and reason and speak nonsense, your history will always chase you, your evil deeds and sins will always chase you”.

Dear reader, I beg your apology for repeating this quote of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at an election rally. But it has a different context here. As an election speech, it is loaded with unpleasant & unnecessary comments that has now become Modi’s hallmark. It is also somewhat amusing. But there is a sub-text of threat running under the lines, and the tone of a bully is unmissable. But is it for real?

So far, the Modi administration has proved being given more to barking than biting. The pending cases against opposition leaders—be it the National Herald case against the Gandhi family, the alleged land scam of Robert Vadra, the Gandhi son-in-law, or the Saradha/Rose Valley chit-fund cases allegedly involving West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress—are progressing as sedately as most anti-corruption cases in India. But, underneath the Prime Minister’s rhetorical flourish, the stage is quietly being set for the unrolling of a new hard state. It is in conformity with the current “alt-right” narrative that much of today’s “ills” are due to over-extension of the due process of law.

Its first sign came in finance minister Arun Jaitley’s budget speech, when he proposed to amend Section 132 of the Income Tax Act. It authorises a raid whenever there is a “reason to believe” or “reason to suspect” that the concerned person is hiding his wealth. Tax officers are under no obligation to disclose such “reason to suspect” to anyone, least of all to the targeted assessee. In yet another change, the tax authority will be free to requisition some other authority (Enforcement Directorate, for that matter) to deliver books of account, documents or assets of the assessee. The amendments will take effect retrospectively from the time the concerned laws were enacted, which are April 1962 and October 1975 respectively. The retrospective amendment in the Finance Bill 2017 is a poison dart that not only overturns a basic principle in law that none should be punished for an ‘offence’ that was not deemed an offence at the time of its commission. More significantly, the amendments are indeed very harsh as recording of “reason to suspect” is held to be a safeguard to prevent searches at will or directions and fishing expeditions.

I am told Jaitley seems emboldened by “Pooran Mal Etc V. Director of Inspection (Investigation) of Income Tax” in which a Constitution bench held that Section 132 inter alia did not run against the fundamental rights. But that judgment came in view of the Section as it now exists, not in the context of its proposed mutilation. The amendment, in its present form, may give free play to tax sleuths to unleash the so-called raid raj on assesses based on rumour, canard, whim or unsubstantiated suspicion. The tax officials were fighting for a long time to acquire this draconian power and they succeeded finally. It also looks like a page taken from history as this is exactly how the financial arms of the 1975 Emergency worked under Indira Gandhi, using Conservation of Foreign Exchange and Prevention of Smuggling Activities (COFEPOSA) Act as the fearsome umbrella to detain the regime’s resourceful adversaries without trial. Pranab Mukherjee, presently President of India, was a junior minister in the revenue department.

That Mukherjee did not unlearn his early lessons in “hard state” became evident in his handling of the dispute on transfer pricing of multinational telecom company Vodafone as Finance Minister during UPA-II. It launched the Indian operations by buying stakes in Hutchison Whampoa, a Hong Kong-based company, but Income Tax authorities in India insisted that the transfer pricing, or transaction between two foreign entities for acquisition of a domestic business, would come in its jurisdiction. When the Supreme Court ruled in favour of Vodafone, dismissing IT Department’s jurisdiction, Mukherjee, in his last budget in 2012, brought retrospective amendments to the tax laws. India was globally reprimanded for retrospective amendment of tax laws and subsequently slid sharply down the ladder of ‘ease of business’. Critics of Mukherjee’s apparent overzealousness included most BJP leaders, including Jaitley. 

In his 2014 budget speech, Jaitley was no longer critical of retrospective amendments to tax laws but he was circumspect. “The sovereign right of the government to undertake retrospective legislation is unquestionable. However, this power has to be exercised with extreme caution and judiciousness keeping in mind the impact of each such measures on the economy and the overall investment climate. This government will not “ordinarily” bring about any change retrospectively which creates a fresh liability”. Jaitley said in the same speech that he was committed to a “stable and predictable” tax regime.  

Both Modi and Jaitley had invested a good measure of their youthful days in the struggle against Indira Gandhi’s Emergency. While the former worked for RSS under concealed identity and the latter being kept in detention for the entire period under draconian MISA. Of all the laurels Jaitley has earned at the bar or in the political sphere in his illustrious political career, the shiniest is the sacrifice he made during Emergency. When Modi rants against the corrupt, he commands an unusually large number of sympathetic nods. His demonetisation drive, however painful, got mass acceptance as most felt he was against the privileged class. If Modi continues to command high ratings across the country, Jaitley’s graph as FM rose too. 

But it seems the dark memories of the days when the Constitution was kept in abeyance are fading from Modi’s and my friend Jaitley’s memory. It is unfortunate that the government has  got the math wrong after four decades. 

Nemesis rides a Bicycle

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

It is the last week-end before the fate of the Maha Gathbandhan or Grand Alliance of the non-BJP parties in Uttar Pradesh is decided. While the SP and Congress have finally agreed to a seat-sharing arrangement, others have yet to chip in. In the state with 403-strong assembly, the young SP supremo and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav inarguably holds an image hugely surpassing that of Congress’ Rahul Gandhi. While SP won 224 seats in the 2012 election, the Congress got only 28, or a little over a tenth of the former. However, while SP bagged 29.13 per cent of votes, Congress tally was 11.65 per cent, which is not so abysmally low in relation to the winner. While the ‘grand old party’ had very few strong candidates in any region, including Awadh, its historical forte, it had, and possibly still has, flocks who’d still swear by the centenarian party.

And that perhaps explains why the 2017 alliance between SP and Congress is crucial for both SP and Congress. Akhilesh has just maneuvered his way out of the grip of old-timers led by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav, SP’s founder, and his crafty brother Shivpal Singh. Despite being the young, affable and smart CM of UP much of Akhilesh’s inability to pull it out of its disappointing image of being a lawless land lies with his father and his associates. These old-timers had imposed their authority on the young leader. After a lot of public spat, and jousting with an army of “uncles”, Akhilesh has finally secured the liberty to shape his legislative party the way he wishes. But he is neither cut in the mould of the Yadav clan’s rebellious child, nor would it give him any electoral percentage if he does so. SP under Akhilesh has to be a ‘compromise’ with SP of his father, who still enjoys some following. It’s a necessity that has driven Akhilesh to offer a ticket even to Shivpal and Azam Khan.

That is quite a tight-rope walk and is risky as Akhilesh alone cannot bring about an image makeover of the SP, which is identified with patriarchy, misogyny and gangster-worship. An alliance with Rahul, the young leader of an old national party, is expected to go a long way in wrapping up the Akhilesh-led combination in an aura of youthfulness. Besides, the Congress party’s traditional link with the state’s large Brahmin community (12 per cent) is a bonus.

The alliance looked wobbly until the last minute as Congress was playing pricy by demanding more than it deserved based on the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress won just two seats, those of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi while the SP managed to win 5 against the ‘Modi storm’ and the decline in its vote share was much less than Congress’ cliff diving.  To nurture its pocket-boroughs, the VIP Lok Sabha constituencies of Amethi (Rahul Gandhi) and Rae Bareli (Sonia Gandhi), Congress demanded maximum assembly seats in that area.  

In the tough bargaining between Akhilesh and the Gandhi clan, the latter’s leverage is the Brahmin support it has always attracted. In Uttar Pradesh, Brahmins are more than a caste. They’re opinion makers as they interface with the public—be it in the local media, educational institutions or the bar associations or religious institutions. It is from these platforms that the hawa, or the popular consensus, moves as to which side is ‘winning’. And this verdict motivates fence-sitters, who represent majority of voters in a state like Uttar Pradesh where ideology, unlike, say, in Kerala, counts for very little. In 2007, it’s the hawa fanned by the upper caste that had made fence-sitters believe it was Mayawati’s turn, and she made it to the top office. In the last Lok Sabha election, the upper caste voters including Brahmins voted overwhelmingly for Narendra Modi as they saw him as a symbol of both conservative Hindutva and a modern reformer. But, over the years, BJP in Uttar Pradesh is perceived as an outright communal party with OBC groups at its core. Keshav Prasad Maurya, an OBC leader, now holds the post of BJP state president. BJP MP Yogi Adityanath, much criticised for his communal hate-mongering, has been chosen among the party’s main campaigners. Besides, the memories of riots at Moradabad and Saharanpur are still raw. It peeved the educated class that expected Modi to usher in a wave of modernisation, but got communal slugfest in its place.

From Akhilesh’s perspective, Congress’ demands of 125 seats were undoubtedly irksome. But the dividend he can expect from an SP-Congress unity, extending to JD(U), RLD and even Mamata Banerjee’s TMC being on board, goes a very long way. If the future alliance ultimately trounces BJP in India’s most populous state—and that too three years after BJP had grabbed 73 of its 80 Lok Sabha seats—it will get flagged as evidence of the 2014 victory of Modi being a purely temporary phenomenon, something like a flash flood. If the BJP-Akali Dal combine also flounders in Punjab, it will lead to considerable diminution of Modi’s stature as winner in 2019.

By emerging as the new face of his party to defeat the old cabal of men with backward ideas and orthodox mindset, Akhilesh has already positioned himself as an icon of young voters. If he can forge and lead a powerful alliance in the next two years, he can  become the unquestioned national alternative. That should make BJP see its nemesis coming on a bicycle (SP’s poll symbol). 

ACHHE DIN NOT TOO FAR

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

In May 2014, Narendra Modi, on assuming power as India's Prime Minister, seemed an epitome of strength in stark contrast to UPA in its last leg. But it took only a few months to find the Modi administration's Achilles Heel—its deficit in numbers in the 245-member Rajya Sabha. Pitted against an opposition determined to crush Modi's reputation as a human dynamo, if not his credibility, the government had to sit out as scores of its bills got stalled in the upper house. The government was crippled and the opposition thought it had won.

 However, the Congress' fencing in the Rajya Sabha is showing gaps that may soon be wide enough for Modi to ride through. Come August 1, when biennial elections fall due to 56 seats across 15 states, and seven more nominated members are replaced by 'eminent' personalities chosen by the present dispensation, the NDA/UPA difference will be greatly neutralised. But the real change lies in the growing pull of BJP among large regional players, like TMC in West Bengal, BJD in Odisha and, significantly, both SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh.

But the number game in Rajya Sabha has only begun. In Andhra Pradesh, one has to watch if TDP gifts an assured seat to BJP minister Nirmala Sitaraman or INLD offers an olive branch in Haryana. And how many seats are gained by BJP's 'frenemies', like SP, YSR Congress and TRS is yet to be seen. And AIADMK, always a supporter of Modi except on the GST Bill, may get even closer to him if it is returned to power in the state for another term. No doubt it is Modi's skill as a player on India's vast political chequerboard that has begun to reap dividends. 

But he is lucky not only on the political front. The met department's forecast of 106 per cent of July-September "long period average" rainfall, after two years of below-average showers, has given a boost to demand which is so overwhelming that it kicked off a week-long stock market rally. Perhaps, rain Gods are also smiling at Modi after two years of drought. The Index of Industrial Production has registered a two per cent rise in February after months of contraction. Of course this rate of growth is midget sized compared to the 6 per cent that India has clocked on an average in the past ten years. But it is the first green shoot after a long drought. It synchronises with yet another happy tiding, that of the consumer price index rising only 4.8 per cent in March from over 5 per cent. Significantly, this drop in retail inflation is due to moderation in food prices, a key factor that can put more disposable income in the hands of the rural population. Besides, it signals the prospect of agriculture turning the corner at last, after a minimal growth of 1.1 per cent in 2015-16 and generally lackadaisical performance in the past. Tied to that is the destiny of half the country's population engaged in agriculture, a sector that contributes only 15 per cent to GDP.

Optimism about India under Modi is not limited to his loyalists and RSS bhakts in the country. It is shared by some of the world's largest Private Equity funds who specialise in the art of investing in businesses that has the prospect to grow in the future, often on a 10-year horizon. Carlyle, the world's second largest PE fund, in a note circulated by its director of research, has noted: "The most optimistic forecast for 2016 GDP growth in China (7%) matches the most pessimistic for India". It quotes IMF data to put India's expected returns on incremental capital (a single unit of capital newly deployed) between 2016 and 2020 at 24.7 per cent. It is twice that of the global figure and 1.7 times of the Emerging Markets. Be it power, railways, roads, airports and ports, the signposts of future growth, India has come a long way in the past two years.

Under Modi, India's politics is moving away from its traditional populist mould. Earlier, Congress was identified with its populist programmes—be it MGNREGA, PDS or doles. The real gains from them remained doubtful due to lack of strict monitoring mechanism and corruption. But Modi, the pragmatic leader, is doggedly pursuing Jan Dhan Yojana, Mudra and Aadhar, projects that bring welfare within the scope of audit. Only future can tell how much of wasteful expenditure Modi's fiscal filters are going to save. He is painted as hardhearted but that did not deter him, or his colleague, Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, to send wagons of drinking water to parched Latur. Modi may have failed to keep his election promise of bringing black money hoarded abroad back to the country. But his government is taking plenty of measures to raise the cost of tax evasion within the country. He is determined to regulate the sectors that shelters black money, such as property, jewellery, natural resources etc.

 He took the bold decision to allow 100% FDI in e-commerce companies thereby eliminating circulation of black money in retail and wholesale trade. He may have been opposed to some of the UPA’s schemes as Gujrat Chief Minister. But he is a fast learner. Once he realises the gains of a scheme, he doggedly pursues it. The way he is going after domestic black money and didn’t yield an inch is an indication of his well crafted strategy. He knows that he is creating an army of Modi-haters. But he had an inkling that the wheel of economy will surely turn. With RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan showering praises on him, the ACHHE DIN are not too far. Narendra Modi is not a hasty reformer. But nor was Deng Xiaobing, the maker of modern China, who said it is a good policy “to cross the river by feeling the stones”

(The author is National Editor, Lokmat group)

Mamata burns her bridges

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Five years back, Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Mamata Banerjee stormed to power in West Bengal wearing her trademark Hawaii flip-flop, as a symbol of simplicity in the country's then simmering with allegations of corruption on a humongous scale. Thanks to the 2G scam and 'coalgate', booties in trillions of rupees had just become commonplace. Mamata did not have to make much effort to appear saintly, until the Saradha chit fund scandal began unfolding and one of her ministers, known as her 'bagman', went to jail. Then came a series of 'sting' videos of her party and cabinet bigwigs grabbing for wads of currencies offered to them for promise to pull strings on bribe-givers' behalf.

Nitish Kumar working for Grand Alliance in Assam

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special 

Nitish Kumar working for Grand Alliance in Assam

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec 10

A grand alliance is being worked by all like-minded parties against the BJP in Assam. A beginning was made on Thursday by Janata Dal (U) leader and chief minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar when he held detailed consultations with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) president Badruddin Ajmal.

Talks are also afoot with Prafulla Mohanta faction of the AGP. The Trinamul Congress leader Mamata Banerjee is also keen to enter into an electoral understanding with other secular forces.

Nitish met Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee and other leaders separately on Thursday. The subject was how to sew an alliance against the BJP in every state. 

When Lokmat contacted Badruddin Ajmal, he said, "We fought against the Congress all through. But times have changed. We need to stop the BJP. Lets see how it can be done."

Ajmal's party has a large following in the state and won 18 seats out of 126 in the state in 2011 Assembly polls. The AGP won ten while TMC secured one seat. But if these parties come together, they may be a formidable alternative alliance to the Congress rather than allowing the BJP to gain credence. The BJP had won 5 Assembly seats only in 2011. But in May 2014 due to Modi wave, the BJP won seven Lok Sabha seats.

Since Assam is a do or die battle for the BJP after two major setbacks in Delhi and Bihar assembly polls, secular parties including Congress are also working out modalities to keep BJP at bay.

The TMC has already thrown broad hints of going with the Congress in West Bengal and modalities are being worked out. But in Assam, the situation is somewhat different as these secular parties do not want the state to be divided on communal lines.

The state unit of Congress in Assam and chief minister Tarun Gogoi is also keen that AIUDF, TMC, JD (U) and AGP may contest separately. However, a final decision is yet to be taken.