Fly On the Wall
Harish Gupta
Amit Shah’s Big-Bang Return
Just
a few weeks ago, the political chatter was all about one question:
Where was Amit Shah? The Home Minister’s visible political activity
had seemingly gone quiet. When
the crowds that descended on Jantar Mantar on July 20 and the ensuing
ruckus during the march towards Parliament had dented Delhi police's
image under the Union Home Ministry. If
Amit Shah was busy pulling strings behind the scenes, few outside the
inner circle appeared to know.
But suddenly, the shutters are up. Amit Shah showed his mettle when the CJP protesters returned to the Capital a second time on October 10. The message was blunt: not a soul should be allowed to reach Jantar Mantar, come what may. The heavy hand with a soft touch was for all to see.
In between, Shah is seen everywhere — Delhi, Noida, UP, Maharashtra, Punjab and across the country. He is not merely attending routine government functions, he is increasingly occupying the central political space. His big-bang return came with his two-day Maharashtra visit last month, followed by Modi’s birthday celebrations in Vadnagar on September 17. His political footprint has only grown. In Delhi, he inaugurated several projects and the Delhi government advertisement was quite revealing. A few photographs showed Shah walking onto the newly opened road, waved to the crowds and soaked up the moment.
Noida followed. Shah inaugurated the Uttar Pradesh International Trade Show, praised Yogi Adityanath and this was particularly notable amid speculation about Shah’s rumoured distance from UP and reports of friction with the CM. On September 30, Shah landed in Jalandhar for a mega BJP rally and visited multiple states including Meghalaya, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and later West Bengal.
Insiders say that the journey has just begun and the itinerary is full. Perhaps Shah is filling the void as the new BJP chief Nitin Nabin is unable to make an impact.
BJP's Hidden Punjab Card
It's a mixed bag for the BJP in the Assembly polls due in five states early next year if information reaches out to the ruling dispensation. Internal party surveys, pollsters and other sources have conveyed that the BJP is comfortable in UP, Manipur and Goa. But it is facing rough weather in Uttarakhand due to a variety of reasons including the appointment of former BJP general secretary Dushyant Gautam as Governor. The BJP is far behind in Punjab if it contests alone in Punjab. It is only after such a feedback from all sources in Punjab that the BJP is now toying with the idea of joining hands with the SAD in Punjab. There are reports that SAD leader Harsimrat Kaur may return to the NDA and Modi Cabinet soon. It is perhaps due to these reports that Amit Shah did not declare in Jalandhar on September 30 rally that the BJP will contest all 117 Assembly seats.
An insider present at a BJP leaders meeting with Amit Shah said that the message from the party was loud and clear, “Congress ki Sarkar Banegi Nahin Aur AAP Ki Banane Nahin Denge. BJP Ko Jamin Par Kaam karna Hai.” (Congress won't be able to form the government. We won't allow the AAP to form a government and you people work on the ground).
When Shivraj Singh Sat on a Dharna
The PMO is perplexed and the BJP high command is keeping its fingers crossed as the simmering differences between Union Agriculture & Rural Development Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the BJP's Madhya Pradesh government headed by Mohan Yadav, spilled into the open. The tensions had been building for some time but came into public domain when Chouhan complained to the BJP’s general secretary (organisation, MP), Chandrashekhar, at a review meeting that district collectors were not answering his phone calls. Chandrashekhar reportedly counseled the leaders and asked them to end factionalism within three months.
But the situation subsequently got complicated when Mohan Yadav raised questions about the Ladli Behna scheme, a flagship initiative launched by Shivraj. Yadav pointed to its heavy expenditure and strain on the state’s finances. The differences took a dramatic turn when Chouhan sat on a dharna in his former constituency, Budhni, protesting against the demolition of the homes of around a dozen Adivasi families by the Forest Department. Calling the action “height of oppression” by the officials (Not by the State or the CM).
This was the first time a Union Cabinet Minister sat on a dharna against his own state government. Though former Chief Minister Madan Lal Khurana had also done it when he staged a dharna against his own government after being removed from office in the Vajpayee era. But it was a first in the NDA 2.0. The issue was resolved as Mohan Yadav telephoned Chouhan and both are smiling nowadays. But.....
Mayawati's BSP On The Brink
The BSP is staring at parliamentary extinction. It drew a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and its lone Rajya Sabha MP, Ramji Gautam, is set to retire in November. With no MLA left in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly as its lone MLA, Uma Shankar Singh, died recently, the party has virtually no route back to the Upper House. The bigger battle comes in March 2027, when UP votes again. But the BSP entered the electoral arena badly weakened—and increasingly reduced to a Mayawati family affair. The repeated expulsion and readmission of her nephews and niece has only added to the perception of a party in disarray.
The decline is extraordinary. At its 2007 peak, the BSP was not merely a Dalit party; it was a national political disruptor. Mayawati’s full majority in UP transformed her into a symbol of social-justice politics that could capture power, not merely protest. By 2009, the BSP had become India’s third-largest party by vote share, winning 21 Lok Sabha seats. Since then, the slide has been relentless. In 2024, its UP vote share crashed to 9.39%, down from 19.43% in 2019, while nationally it managed just 2.07% and zero seats.
The Jatav core largely survives. But without alliances, votes are no longer translating into seats. The BSP’s crisis is no longer about power. It is about survival.
