by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
The “hug” was no fluke, Rahul scripted it
Ever since Rahul Gandhi took over as Congress president, he is learning the ropes, rather fast. If he took the party and political observers completely by surprise by dropping big guns from the Congress Working Committee last week, he also sent out a clear signal that generational shift has come here to stay. Then came his “hug and wink” storm in the Lok Sabha during the debate on the No-Confidence motion. The debate on the No-Confidence Motion has been relegated into the background while “Hug & wink” continues to make columnists burning their mid-night oil. To top it all, Rahul Gandhi himself is sending out contradictory signals over the “hug & wink” events. He told NDTV the same day that the 'Hug” was a spontaneous decision as he had sat down after finishing his speech and later got up and moved over to Modi. The Wink was also impromptu. But when he met women journalists on Tuesday over high-tea at the India International Center (IIC), he told them that he was thinking about it for the past some time. Rahul didn't disclose further. But sources close to him said that Rahul Gandhi gave considerable thought to his “hug” plan. These sources also say that the inner core group of the party comprising of Sonia-Rahul & Priyanka did discuss the consequences of such an initiative. Sonia Gandhi was slightly worried that it may not be parliamentary protocol. But Priyanka Gandhi said Modi has broken every parliamentary protocol by not allowing a no-confidence motion (NCM) during the Budget session. The NCM is Opposition's birth right. But even that was over-ruled. Therefore, there is nothing wrong in the hug. Thus Rahul's thinking was converted into action on Friday. In fact, Rahul Gandhi's speech was so good that he was overwhelmed and sat down. Suddenly he realised that he had forgotten the planned “hug”. He got up again to the surprise of the Speaker and others and started speaking for less than a minute. Instead of taking his seat, he moved over Modi, hugged him and gave the PM his first shock. The headlines next day was the rare Hug and not the motion.
Rahul’s PM card
Ever since “sources” in the Congress Working Committee said to the media after the mega event that Rahul Gandhi would be party’s prime ministerial face, all hell broke. Until the CWC, Rahul Gandhi was sending clear signals that his aim for 2019 is to defeat Modi and not become PM himself. It was almost year and a half ago when he said in an informal chat with the a select group of journalists, myself included, that he is willing to wait until 2024 or beyond, but Modi must go in 2019. The sourced report did the damage as Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar etc became unhappy. This was also contrary to what Rahul Gandhi had discussed with Sharad Pawar during his three long interactions. But he undid the damage on Tuesday when he told women journalists that anyone, Mamata or Maya, could be PM. The Congress will support any "non-RSS-backed Prime Minister" in 2019 Rahul said and added the priority was to defeat the BJP and end the climate of fear that has entered "our homes". Asked if the Congress was open to a woman Prime Minister, he said that anyone not backed by the RSS was acceptable. With Congress’ U-turn on the PM’s issue, the hearts of contenders are gladdened.
Mamata wooing Congress for tie-up
It is now clearly emerging that Congress will enter into some-sort of alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the TMC in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. While the CPM general secretary, Sitaram Yechury was keen to tie up with the Congress in West Bengal, things are not working out. One of the reasons is that Congress and the Left are arch rivals in Kerala. Congress strategists have also advised Rahul Gandhi that the Left parties, in any case, will support any combination of like-minded parties from outside. Therefore, let the Left parties go alone in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. It has some claim over 3-4 seats in other states which may be considered sympathetically later. But the Congress should go with Mamata Banerjee during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress has a legitimate claim over 7-8 seats in West Bengal out of 42 seats. But the TMC is willing to concede 5-6 seats with the argument that the strike rate of this combination will be very high. The TMC-Congress can combine is capable of winning 39 Lok Sabha seats as most of the cadre of the Left parties has either the BJP or the TMC. The TMC had won 34 and the Congress 2 Lok Sabha seats during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and both had contested separately. The BJP is targeting to win 21 seats in West Bengal on the back of anti-incumbency of Mamata, cow vigilantism, Hindu sentiments and Modi wave. Mamata is keen to join hands with the Congress too hoping to overcome this anti-incumbency and emerge as Consensus Prime Ministerial candidate.
The UP Seat-sharing formula
The SP-BSP have evolved a seat-sharing formula in UP and conveyed the same Congress & RLD. The formula is that whosoever won or came second in the state during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, will get the those seats. As per this formula, the Congress can get 7seats while the RLD of Ajit Singh can stake a claim on two seats. The remaining seats will go to the SP-BSP. Now the young leadership surrounding Rahul Gandhi comprising of RPN Singh, Jitin Prasad and others want the party to be realistic and settle for 10 seats. On Tuesday, BSP leader Mayawati said she would join the Opposition alliance only if it gets a "respectable number of seats" to contest in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan elections and also in the Lok Sabha. Obviously, the BSP wants pie in other states before conceding even 10 seats to Congress. Hence, Rahul’s PM card.
Jayant Advani to contest from Gandhinagar ?
Jayant Advani, the only son of veteran BJP leader L K Advani had a long meeting with the Prime Minister last month. It so happened that when he was in his factory in NOIDA, his mobile rang and the PM was on the line. Jayant Advani met the PM and later Modi called on L K Advani along with party chief Amit Shah. The purpose of the visit was to understand if L K Advani would like to contest again in 2019 from his traditional Gandhinagar Lok Sabha seat or make room for someone of his choice. The BJP leadership is keen to explore all these contentious seats and in the process of deciding whether seniors above 75 years of age be repeated or their kith and kin be accommodated. While Modi is reported to have kept quiet, Amit Shah broached the subject if the octogenarian leader would like to contest. Advani heard them but reported to have said nothing.
