by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
Sushma Sermon to BJP MPs creates a flutter
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj is very cautious of what she speaks and does. She plays so safe that people rather wonder if she is the same Sushma who used to bat on the front foot all the time and fire-brand speaker. But ever since she became a Minister under the Modi dispensation, she is a changed person. However, things are changing lately and Sushma created a stir at the BJP Parliamentary Party meeting on Tuesday last. She told the hundreds of BJP Mps present at the venue that they should not be seen in Delhi after August 10. They should create a buzz in every village and town about Modiji's schemes and success stories and achievements of the Modi government. She said no MP should be seen in Delhi after august 10 and stay in their respective constituencies. Sushma who spoke immediately after Surface Transport and Water Resources Minister Nitin Gadkari sent a clear message to the Mps that they should now focus on the constituencies alone. The MPs were surprised to hear the sermon coming from Sushma who virtually declared that Monsoon could be the last session of Parliament amidst buzz that Lok Sabha polls may be advanced to November-December when polls are due in four states; Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. Surprisingly, neither BJP president Amit Shah and nor the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi contradicted her when they spoke subsequently. The silence of Modi and Shah on this tricky issue made MP s worried too. Since Sushma is not known for jumping the gun, the MP s have no clue as what they should do next ? Better Quit the Capital after August 10 as directed by Sushma Behenji.
Rahul ready for a big hair-cut
Congress president Rahul Gandhi made it clear to top party leaders that he was all for alliances. But they should keep in mind that these alliances would be limited to four states only; namely, Maharashtra, UP, Bihar and Tamil Nadu. In other states, the party may have some adjustment of seats. But these four states alone account for 208 seats out of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. In these four states the Congress is expected to contest, if the alliances were put in place, around 50-54 seats. Sources say that the Congress would contest 22 seats in Maharashtra under a new arrangement being worked out, 10 in UP, 12 in Bihar and 10 in Tamil Nadu. Rahul reported to have told P Chidambaram categorically when he advocated for country-wide alliances to defeat PM Modi. Rahul said these four states, the party would enter into alliances and in other states there may be seat adjustment. He did not name any other state. But in west Bengal, the Congress will have seat adjustment with Mamata Banerjee and not an alliance and would contest 8 out of 42. This means, out of 250 seats, the Congress will contest 60 seats only. Mamata called on Sonia Gandhi on Wednesday and discussed the length the contours of broad-based understanding. But it is clear the Congress is ready to take a big hair-cut to ensure the defeat of Modi in 2019. Congress under Sonia Gandhi may have contested 461 Lok Sabha seats across the country. But things are different under young Rahul Gandhi who is realistic and quick in decision-making now. If things go as planned, the Congress is now mentally ready to contest 265-280 Lok Sabha seats. In Kerala too, it is already in alliance and with Mayawati seeking seats outside UP, the Congress tally may come down further. But one thing is sure; the strike rate of the Congress-led alliance will be far more damaging than what is anticipated.
Dy. Chairman's room gone too !
With no election of Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha in sight as the government not inclined to hold it due to lack of numbers, Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu moved a step further. The VP explored the possibility if a consensus for the post of Dy Chairman can be evolved and government tried hard. Finally, the government told VP that it won't to possible to do so during the Monsoon session of Parliament. It now transpires that VP has taken control of the Dy. Chairman's spacious room for the time being and put it to some better use. A dining table with a dozen chairs were put there and a temporary partition was created. Since the Vice President has to sit for long hours in the absence of Deputy Chairman, he has to sit in the House for long hours. Therefore, he decided to put up a bed to take afternoon nap in the Parliament House itself rather than driving down to his own residence at 6 Maulana Azad Road. In any case, there is no hurry to fill the post either as VP is doubling up for Dy. Chairman as well.
Amit Shah's 51% vote share dream
In the midst of contradictory signals, BJP chief Amit Shah made it clear that there will be no early elections either for the Lok Sabha. Shah was quoted as saying that the BJP was all for simultaneous polls of Lok Sabha & state Assemblies. But unless there is a consensus or the BJP has required majority in Parliament, the proposal won't be implemented on a piece meal basis. “There is no question of early elections, we will not do give up power even for one hour as people have given us the mandate for 5 years,” he said to his core group team. Giving logic behind his plans, Shah said the BJP is targeting for 51 % votes in the Lok Sabha. He said that the BJP polled 47% votes in Kairana Lok Sabha bye-polls which is toughest seat for the party in UP. The combined Opposition may have won the seat. But the BJP improved its vote tally from 41% in 2014 in Kairana to 47%. Amit Shah is not worried over Opposition unity and reportedly said, “we are happy that Rahul Gandhi is being projected as PM, it benefits us since he is no match to Modi. It will give BJP 5% edge during the polls. Amit Shah wriggled out figures after figures and said, the booth level committees of the BJP workers are effectively function in 7 lakh booths out of 9 lakh booths in the country. A batch of 25 workers on every booth is working and operations and connected with the headquarters on a daily basis. The party has a data-base of 14.3 crore members with their mobile telephone numbers, voter cards etc. The BJP is connected with them through SMSes. But he had no answer how he would touch 51% votes in 2019 when the party's vote share in 2014 was 31% votes. Secondly, in 2014, the Opposition parties were divided and Congress was in a disarray.
