by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
With the collapse of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), first in Punjab & Goa, and now in the recently held Municipal polls in Delhi, the last “hope” of the Opposition politics is heading towards self destruction. No doubt, the opponents too are working over-time to inflict a body blow to the four-year born baby. But most of the AAP’s wounds are self-inflicted. If the party is heading towards the funeral pyre, its no one’s fault. Its none else than Arvind Kejriwal himself.
Gone are the days when he was the darling of the media, the down-trodden and the middle-class. It was Kejriwal who had stunned the nation by trouncing the BJP in its citadel by winning 67 out of the 70 Assembly seats. The rout of the Congress which ruled the Union Territory for 15 years under Shiela Dikshit, was of no consequence. It was expected due to variety of reasons. But it was he who single-handedly halted the victory march of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was a severe blow to the BJP and sent its leaders into a shell. The “alternative politics” became the narrative. It was not as if the country was not aware of Kejriwal’s national ambitions. After all, he had contested 500-odd Lok Sabha seats in May 2014 and came a cropper. Yet AAP winning four Lok Sabha seats in Punjab raised eye-brows. But it was his win in Delhi that aroused a new kind of “Hope”.The “secular forces” needed a horse to ride and Kejri was right there. He was the man of the moment.
The timing of his rise in 2013 was most opportune and he never looked back until the big shock in Punjab & Goa and then in Delhi which was his citadel. The Congress had lost the plot in May 2014 and could never recover from the shock tally of 44 Lok Sabha MPs. And this was not all. The party started losing one state after the other and with the BJP scouting for “talent” in every state, the Congress suffered one set back after the other. So much so that veterans like S M Krishna opted to “dump the sinking ship.” A prominent Madhya Pradesh Congress leader had almost clinched his re-entry into the BJP. It was nixed at the last minute by one of the Trioka members (Modi-Shah-Jaitley).
The Congress’ two sitting Chief Ministers will face their litmus test this year end in Himachal Pradesh & Karnataka. It is also an irony in the era of Congress bashing that its victory in Punjab is not attributed to the Gandhis. The credit for Capt. Amrinder Singh’s win is attributed to his leadership and to the BJP which did everything possible to ensure AAP’s rout. Secondly, AAP’s one blunder after the other in Punjab helped the Congress to dislodge the Akalis after ten years. Why the Congress leadership can’t be credited with Punjab win ? Look at the MCD poll results in Delhi ! Rahul Gandhi’s hand-picked Ajay Maken ensured that the party secures the third position. Therefore, the most worrying aspect is that the Congress leadership failed to create “hope” amongst its rank and file and Rahul Gandhi’s inability to enthuse the voter is widely accepted. The Left parties who commandeered Central governments from outside, have now been reduced to single digit in Parliament. It is now confined to Tripura and even here, BJP chief Amit Shah is determined to snatch the Left’s last Bastion. The Indian Left is facing a leadership crisis and it is desperately searching for a Kanhaiya to save it from virtual extinction.
The less said the better of another prominent national political party, the BSP which has nearly 20% votes fixed votes in over 100 Lok Sabha constituencies. But she is fast losing the plot and surfacing of her recent audio-tapes could be a turning point in Dalit politics. Her image is already sullied and the BSP is virtually on the verge of extinction in both houses of Parliament. The Lalus, Mulayams, Mamatas have destroyed their own image as one scam after the other hits them and their parties. This has brought Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is considered a clean politician at a crossroad. If he dumps Lalu, his government goes. Alternatively, he can re-join the NDA. The BJP also badly needs Nitish Kumar as it wants Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats in its kitty. The BJP is aware that it will be difficult to sweep Lok Sabha polls in Bihar if it contests alone and Nitish-Lalu-Congress stay together. In either case, his dream of emerging as a consensus candidate for the Prime Ministerial post from the Opposition benches is in jeopardy.
Therefore, its a pitiable situation for the Opposition, at least for the moment. For the very survival of democracy a strong Opposition is needed. But one cannot expect the Modi-Shah to create the Opposition. The leaders on the Opposition benches will have to re-invent themselves. The Opposition will have to find a leader who is capable enough to take other parties along. Arvind Kejriwal had showed the charisma and there was a moment when the Left parties were willing to do business with him. But he lost the plot due to his self-destructive over-ambitious politics. Rahul Gandhi had ample opportunities to lead the party from the front and provide the leadership. But he too missed the bus. May be he will have to re-orient and re-invent.
If BJP can re-invent after 14 years of struggle after being routed in 1984, why shall the Opposition be in a hurry. Modi’s honey-moon is not over yet and the Opposition parties do not have 24X7 politicians like Modi and Amit Shah. But political parties don’t die, only their corrupt and incompetent leaders fade away with time. The parties bounce back.
