by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
Election to the 403-member Uttar Pradesh assembly is months away but its prelude is on. If Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi's on-going "Khat Pe Charcha" in the state giving him confidence to comment, "we are winning", the ruling Samajwadi Party is struggling to overcome biggest ever feud in the Yadav clan. The drama has considerably eroded whatever chief minister, Akhilesh Singh Yadav, had earned through his massive campaign.
Akhilesh actually began canvassing several months ago, when the cash-strapped state government began to shower advertisements on newspapers and television channels blustering its achievements. The public spat between Chacha-Bhatija (uncle Shivpal Yadav and nephew Akhilesh Yadav) has shaken the very foundation of the 54 month old SP government. For BSP's Mayawati, the moment of action arrived apparently by accident, with scenes of bare-bodied Dalit cow-skinners being welted by supposed 'cow protectors' going viral on social media. Since then, on the question of who could be the best bet for the Uttar Pradesh sweepstakes, public attention is re-directed to Mayawati, the state's previous chief minister. And of course BJP is the looming omnipresence; only two years back, in the Lok Sabha elections, it captured 71 of the 80 seats and 42.30 per cent votes.
But the 2014 parliamentary poll is different. At that time an atmosphere was created in which the nation thought it got itself in the vortex of a terrible economic and moral crisis, and Narendra Modi was projected as the saviour. The billion-rupee BJP campaign hit the country in 2014 like a thunderstorm that has blown away to a large extent.
But has it? Or could it be that, in the state's vast caste cauldron, some changes that were simmering long since did reach the boiling point during the LS election?
Before brushing aside BJP's 2014 victory in the state as purely one-off, it is necessary to consider the extent of Hindu polarization it witnessed. According to a BJP internal analysis, between 2009 and 2014, in Uttar Pradesh, BJP increased its vote-share percentage among various Hindu caste groups in the following order: Brahmin-57 to 72; Thakur-49 to 79; Yadav-6 to 27; Kurmi-26 to 56; Jat-21 to 81; Other OBC-20 to 60; Jatav-2 to 23; Other Dalit-8 to 60.
It is clear that BJP was hugely successful in stitching up a common umbrella for all Hindus, not just for the upper caste, though its grip on Brahmins and, in particular, Thakurs, much strengthened. But what is nothing short of startling is the phenomenal rise in BJP's acceptability among Dalits and OBCs. From within Jatav, Mayawati's own Dalit sub-caste, support to Modi and BJP grew over 11 times in five years. Looks like a miracle, yet it has a background.
After Independence, the dalit-upper caste antipathy raged so high that the former saw its destiny with Muslims rather than the Hindu community. "Jatav Muslim bhai bhai, Hindu kaum kahan se ayee?" This was the dalit clarion call in the post-Ambedkar years and it remained so for decades. Bharatiya Jan Sangh, the Hindutva party in its earlier avatar, saw this wall standing ahead but had no clue how to scale it.
It began changing in the 80's, with RSS under the late Balasaheb Deoras holding all-caste dharma sabha across the state, and the Ramayan tele-serial helping forge a psycho-social sense of togetherness between upper caste and Dalit/OBC. However, it was not BJP but Mayawati who reaped the benefit of Dalits readying themselves to intermingle with others. In the 90's, she gave her BSP party, with elephant as its poll symbol, such memorable slogans like: Pandit shankh bajayega, Haathi badhta jayega. Her campaigns were a glorious exercise in what sociologist M. N. Srinivas called "Sanskritization". The 2007 Brahmin-Jatav alliance brought her to power.
The magic failed in 2012 due to BSP losing the Brahmin support, and, with that, OBC and other social groups lost confidence in Mayawati. In Uttar Pradesh, Dalits including Jatav are 21 per cent of the population. As upper castes drifted to BJP, even Mayawati's Dalit constituency became wobbly. Or else it is difficult to explain her miserable performance in 2014 Lok Sabha poll in which she could not win a single seat. Besides, no caste is frozen in a static social frame. The state has 2.5 crore first-time voters. In every constituency, there are around 90,000 voters under-30. Rather than looking at life through the prism of caste, younger voters generally look for aspirational figures. In 2009, Rahul Gandhi was an aspirational icon. In 2012, Akhilesh Yadav was aspirational. So was Modi in 2014. And that causes cross-osmosis of voters across caste and community lines.
In the run-up to the 2017 Assembly election which is very vital for the BJP for various reasons, Akhilesh's SP is not only weighed down with incumbency. Even its loyal followers, Yadav and Muslim, are baffled. As 2014 poll showed, even Yadavs leaned towards BJP. And Muslims are none too sure about the SP- SP-BJP secret ties. Moreover, there is very little in either SP or BSP that attracts the imagination of new voters. SP is perceived as backseat-driven by a bunch of old patriarchal fogeys, with Akhilesh as its deceptively smiling face. And BSP has lost its mojo after the upper-caste desertion. It stands lifeless, like Mayawati’s stone elephants.
It is arguable that BJP too has lost its aspirational fervour. And, after its debacle inBihar, it has proved vulnerable, which is a major negative for getting support of fence-sitters. It may have succeeded in the North East and Assam. But it is facing waterloo in Goa and Punjab. Even in Uttrakhand, the BJP has internal problems. Therefore, Amit Shah has entrusted Goa to Nitin Gadkari and put his eggs in UP’s basket. Secondly, Modi still rules at the Centre, a fact that carries weight in the thinking process of ordinary voters, particularly in rural areas. Surveys have shown Modi’s own ratings are intact though party is unable to create leadership in states. If it failed in Bihar, it was because of strong leader. The same problem exist in UP too. The polarizing agenda being pursued by some of its wings may help in consolidating its upper caste vote bank. BJP may have the edge. But election in the state is still a far cry.
In the run-up to the 2017 Assembly election which is very vital for the BJP for various reasons, Akhilesh's SP is not only weighed down with incumbency. Even its loyal followers, Yadav and Muslim, are baffled. As 2014 poll showed, even Yadavs leaned towards BJP.
