by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
For Narendra Modi, who stormed the Lok Sabha in 2014 with more than half the seats for his BJP, the ongoing state assembly elections--particularly that in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh--have come as a mid-term confirmation of his popular acceptance. His leadership style, however muscular, is fraught with controversy. His individual popularity may still be very high but what has dented is the general belief is his ability to be the harbinger of change in India's growth story. With economic growth stagnating and the social indices none too peppy either, it is not only that Modi's 2014 promise of 'achhe din' has become a popular joke. More significantly, doubts are being cast on his horse sense to choose the right administrative tool or select the right personnel in taking course-changing decisions. Recent scrapping of 1,000 and 500-rupee currency notes is an example. Its supposedly positive effect not clear to anyone so far, though Modi bragged at a recent poll rally that he took the great risk knowing fully well the consequences. But the fact is that it has destroyed income streams of the poor, at least for first two quarters, if not for a whole year. The government has itself acknowledged its negative impact on GDP and the global community of economists and economic journals have expressed their strong disapproval. The latest is a thumbs-down by Financial Times’s Martin Wolf who called demonetization a “brutal tool” and said it got him “puzzled”. It’s a different matter that some in the government feel that Wolf has praised the step.
The decision, like many of Modi’s perplexing moves, may have explanations that he alone knows. But opposition parties argue that these are typical of a person who doesn’t to saner voices. Modi reads in every small election result a popular endorsement of his actions, like BJP claimed that its impressive tallies in the recent civic elections across Maharashtra denoted popular support of demonetization. The claim is obviously fanciful because the Congress collapsed in Maharashtra long ago and NCP became Modi’s pillion rider. However, the election in Uttar Pradesh, a state the size of France and comprising a sixth of India’s population, offers large enough a sample to test the mood of the nation as far as the Prime Minister is concerned.
Besides, Uttar Pradesh is Modi’s electoral laboratory. Being Hindi-speaking, it offers an audience that best captures the nuances of his speeches. The state is a cauldron of the politics of communal polarization which is the trademark of BJP. It is now ruled by Samajwadi Party, a group known for its close nexus with the minority community. SP is now in electoral alliance with the Congress, which is Modi’s arch rival (despite Congress’ dwindling strength). It is true that BJP swept 73 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, but that election was about who’d rule India, Modi or the Congress. In the 2012 assembly election, the contest was about whether Akhilesh Yadav, the young son of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav, should lead the state government against “corrupt” Behanji. BJP fared miserably in that election.
As the present election results get announced on March 11, fingers are tightly crossed in both Modi and SP-Congress camps. It’s an intense poker game in which all bets are placed development. SP’s track record is somewhat deceptive as all development efforts seem to have focused on Akhilesh’s showcase project, the Lucknow-Agra Expressway, whereas the state is a goner on three counts: law and order, infrastructure and power. Expectations from Akhilesh are still high because, emerging as victor from a contest with his father and his cohorts, the Chief Minister’s campaign carries the implicit subtext. The subtext is that he has been ‘unshackled’ from his seniors’ spell and, if returned to power, would ‘modernize’ the state. But voters in general are skeptical and they understand how little a chief minister can perform without the Centre’s friendly pat and helping hand. And that’s where BJP’s hope lies in Uttar Pradesh.
For Modi, however, the road to Lucknow constitutes the first leg of his march for a second term in 2019. He tasted big-time assembly defeats earlier, in Bihar and Delhi, and the chances of BJP-Akali alliance in Punjab are doomed. Even in Goa, Uttrakhand and Manipur, none is sure of BJP win. But Uttar Pradesh is a different kettle of fish. It is vast and complex; it is a mini-India in many respects. Modi’s victory in Uttar Pradesh will not only cramp the style of his rivals, who are used to blocking every move by him at the upper House, but recharge him with the courage to take unconventional steps in fixing some of India’s endemic problems. These problems, which are economic, political and diplomatic, are big and had been pushed under the carpet for too long. His war against corruption may be aimed at opening the Janampatris (horoscope) of his political rivals. But he believes that if corruption is curtailed, it will help improving the GDP growth. The Note ban move will fill government coffers and fear factor will force people to pay taxes.
The most urgent economic problem is to find a solution to possible unemployment of highly educated Indians due to expected changes in the US visa regime as well as rise of big data analytics and Artificial Intelligence. The answer is to upgrade use of IT in India so that engineers returning from the US can lend their hand in a spectacular rise in productivity at home. But it calls for bipartisan efforts to make the necessary changes in labour and other laws. Politically, the biggest reform will come with simultaneous holding of parliamentary and assembly elections. It is a reform to which the BJP is committed but lacked the nerve. On the diplomatic front, Modi, like Atal Bihari Vajpayee before him, can leave his mark as the architect of a permanent solution to the Kashmir problem. At any rate, it requires Modi’s unquestioned authority to mould India’s foreign relations freely to suit the extremely volatile diplomatic atmosphere.
In other words, Modi needs authority to stand up to the next general elections. A victory in Uttar Pradesh may revitalize his authority. He must reach Lucknow if he can hope to return to Delhi.
