by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
Be not afraid of greatness," goes the cliched yet profound line in The Twelfth Night, "Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and others have greatness thrust upon them."
Nobody ever doubts that Congress vice-president (and presumptive president) Rahul Gandhi is born great. And, with him as the dominant adversary, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, BJP, did not have an occasion to get rattled either. After Bihar, where a fortuitous alliance enabled Congress to get a toe-hold on the winning side, losses began coming to the party serially—in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Assam, in particular, was the 47-year-old regent's self-goal, if one believes the picturesque description by Congress-turned-BJP-leader and ace strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma of his encounter with the party vice-president; the latter was supposedly preoccupied with fondling his dog and had little time for party men, ace or otherwise.
But, in two months flat, things look hugely different. What has turned the table, on the surface at least, is self-goal—by BJP this time round. Since assuming power at the Centre, Prime Minister Modi, and party chief Amit Shah, were working in tandem to make the political administration appear to be as inclusive as possible. Their efforts looked credible on the surface, and just about that. Now the fabric threatens to come apart at the seams, raising serious doubts about BJP's ability to 'do an Assam' in Uttar Pradesh early next year, when the mega-state goes to poll. With the exit of Navjot Singh Sidhu, the BJP has lost the opportunity to do a Maharashtra in Punjab too. And in Gujarat, another poll-bound state, BJP's signs of un-preparedness is bringing Rahul Gandhi back under the lens for a second, and probably more sympathetic, public reappraisal.
There is little doubt, though, that the Modi-Shah duo seem to be at sea in the face of growing unwillingness of the Hindutva-centric 'saffron brotherhood' to pipe down in the election season. Their mindset is too impatient to be tempered by the government's red flags. The line of crack in the society painfully came to light on July 11 when four tannery workers at Una in Gujarat were stripped, flogged with rods and paraded by self-appointed 'cow protectors', or gau rakshaks. The self-appointed cow vigilante groups not only video-recorded their act but put it up online for bravado. The animal skinners are dalits whereas the so-called cow protectors are gangs of caste-proud youth let loose after several BJP-led state governments set new restrictions on bovine slaughter.
But the backlash has started. Protest against the Una incident has snowballed, with one cop killed in stone throwing and 12 dalit men attempting to commit suicide in the past week. It not only gave a new voice to the opposition in Parliament but energized Rahul Gandhi to scramble to Una to be by the side of one of the victims. To be fair to the opposition, Rahul was not their only member at Una. There was Praful Patel of NCP and Arvind Kejriwal of AAP. But Rahul's presence reinforced the apparent continuity in his pro-dalit outreach that began in 2011, when he spent nights in 'harijan' villages and had meals with them.
Rahul's presence reinforced the apparent continuity in his pro-dalit outreach that began in 2011, when he spent nights in 'harijan' villages and had meals with them.
It is no-brainer, though, that the Congress alone cannot win back dalit votes, and, in leading the march of the millions long considered beyond the pale, BSP leader Mayawati is the unquestioned front-runner. And, as luck would have it for the opposition, Dayashankar Singh, vice-president of the Uttar Pradesh unit of BJP, blew a fuse at a public meeting by calling Mayawati names. It helped the entire parliamentary opposition to rally behind her. It also brightened the possibility of a future alignments. It's a different matter that Dayashankar Singh's wife succeeded in turning the table against the BSP leaders for their ugly outbursts against her and her 12-year-old daughter.
But the missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle is the Muslim community. Congress has long since lost its traditional bonding with the community. Earlier this year in Kerala, Muslims abandoned the Congress-Muslim League alliance and voted for CPI(M). In Assam, they shifted support to AIUDF. In Uttar Pradesh, with 17 per cent Muslim share in the population, their votes hold the key. Till the last assembly election in 2012, it is the ruling Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav that commanded their support. But the party has strong internal cross-currents making it drift from its familiar identity as the most pro-Muslim in the Gangetic valley. Besides, chief minister Akhilesh Singh Yadav’s governance skill is poor and he has little connect with the new voters, Hindu or Muslim. In the Muslim society at least, his party is regarded to be in tacit understanding with BJP.
It is something Muslims in India can’t stomach. Besides, the military excesses in Kashmir valley following the killing of Burhan Wani, including the blinding protesters with birdshot-size pellets, has made the entire community rethink its identity. Modi tried his best to douse the fire. It is at his order that army guns in the valley fell silent. But tempers in Kashmir have got frayed. In his visit to the state last week, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh found even local traders refusing to meet him.
It is unlikely that the Muslim anger will remain confined to Kashmir. If it spreads to Uttar Pradesh, making Muslim votes shift to Mayawati, that can solve the jigsaw puzzle. An opposition government in Lucknow, with Congress participation, is the best springboard Rahul Gandhi can hope to obtain to assert his ‘greatness’ in the 2019 general election. So what if it is thrust upon him ?
