Fly on the Wall | BJP’s offensive worries NCP

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP’s offensive worries NCP

The BJP seems to have mounted a fresh offensive against the NCP leadership after a lull. Two recent acts have turned heads. The first case relates to Enforcement Directorate action against former Maharashtra minister Anil Deshmukh which forced NCP supremo Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule, Jayant Patil and others to repeatedly come out in his defence. What has made NCP leadership worried is the extremely proactive action by the ED as if the agency is in a hurry after being instructed by political bosses in Delhi. It is not as if the CBI and other agencies have not registered cases against NCP leaders in the past. But such super speed action was never witnessed before. But it is the second action by the Maharashtra BJP against Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar that has raised eyebrows. The BJP’s top Maharashtra leadership recently passed a resolution named Ajit Pawar in the Sachin Waze case. The BJP specifically asked for a CBI probe against Ajit Pawar based on Sachin Waje's letter. Though both- the BJP and NCP down-played the dragging of Ajit Pawar’s name in the case, insiders say that a lot is cooking in Maharashtra’s “unworkable” ruling alliance. The BJP high command seem to be veering round to the view that any alliance with the NCP will not be in the larger interest of the party either in Maharashtra or the country as a whole. The one-day wonder experiment is better be buried and the BJP should launch a full throttled attack on the NCP. Whether any arrangement with the Sena is arrived at or not is a secondary issue. Thus, the twin actions are part of this strategy. Whether this action will result in any future alliance with the Shiv Sena or not, is yet to be seen. PM Modi has taken the Maharashtra affairs in his own hands now and he has the habit of throwing surprises.

BJP’s UP Waterloo

The BJP leadership is extremely worried about UP Assembly polls due next year. Though polls are taking place in Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur too. But BJP’s watershed moment will be what happens next in the “Ulta Pradesh”. The hearts of the Opposition leaders are gladdened after the shock defeat of BJP in West Bengal and Mamata’s tumultuous return in the most ugly poll battles. The BJP had many handicaps in West Bengal, the foremost being the language barrier. None of the top BJP campaigners was familiar with the local language. The BJP had not projected anybody as its CM face and it had no grass root presence either in villages. However, they forget that UP is not West Bengal. Here, the BJP is already ruling the state and Yogi Adityanath is a tough CM. His graph went up in UP ever since the message went around that he did not buckle under the pressure of Central leadership. Secondly, the BJP has a battery of local leaders and no outsider tag can be fixed. In West Bengal, the BJP had a fierce and personally honest adversary like Mamata. Despite best efforts, she could not be dislodged through defection or other means. In UP, the Opposition leaders have all sorts of corruption charges being probed by CBI, ED, Income-Tax and others.

In the given scenario, the UP Assembly poll may be as polarized as we witnessed in West Bengal. It is also gradually emerging that Akhilesh Yadav of Samajwadi Party will emerge as the rallying point of the Opposition and Congress, RLD and others will come a cropper. The Jat community will go against the BJP due to farmers’ agitation and may lean towards Akhilesh Yadav along with the Yadavs and Muslims. Even Mayawati may not be able to swing the SCs’ votes as she used to in the past. These factors are worrying the BJP high command despite BJP being on the strong footing. The outcome will have a bearing on the Presidential poll due July 2022 too. Thus, a lot is at stake in UP for the BJP and PM Modi.

Uttarakhand: A new pain in the neck

While mystery continues to shroud as to why sitting Uttarakhand CM Trivendra Singh Rawat was shown the door in a mid-night coup by the high command, the incumbent Tirath Singh Rawat finding it difficult to choose his Assembly seat. He has to get elected as an MLA before September 9. He can contest from Gangotri or Haldwani. Both fell vacant after the demise of sitting MLAs due to Covid. Trivendra Singh Rawat can also be asked to vacate his Doiwala seat and Tirath Singh can contest from there. But Tirath Singh is scared of contesting a byelection in the current adverse political scenario. The Election Commission is quiet and so is BJP high command.

Big Buzz in Capital over impending Cabinet reshuffle

It could be this weekend?

No news with Rashtrapati Bhawan so far  

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

With the month-long exercise of performance of 22 Cabinet Ministers and nine Ministers of State (Independent Charge) over yesterday, speculations intensified in the Cabinet of a major over-haul and expansion of the 54-member Council of Ministers.

The PM had already held consultations with the top leadership of the party, RSS and many chief ministers of the states including Shivraj Singh Chouhan. It is also stated that the PM also explored the possibility of bridging differences with the Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is now ready that Janata Dal (U) joins the party. JDU leaders Lallan Singh, Ramnath Thakur and Santosh Kushwaha are reportedly in the running. The Apna Dal of UP is also set to re-join the council with Anupriya Patel in it. Both the factions of the LJP will be kept out.

A couple of Ministers with Independent Charge may be promoted to the Cabinet too.

Jyotiraditya Scindia (Madhya Pradesh) Sarbananda Sonowal (Assam), Dilip Ghose (West Bengal), Sushil Modi (Bihar), Bhupendra Yadav (Rajasthan), Varun Gandhi (UP), Zafar Islam (UP) Ajay Bhatt or Anil Baluni (Uttarakhand) and a few from poll-bound states may be brought in.

The focus will be inducting some young faces keeping long-term interests of the party. There may be at least six new young faces. The names of Rahul Kaswan (Rajasthan), Ashwani Vaishnav (Odisha), Poonam Mahajan or Pritam Munde (Maharashtra) and Parvesh Varma or Meenakshi Lekhi (Delhi) are doing the rounds.

At least three ministers may be dropped while the portfolios of nine ministers holding many additional charges may be taken away. Will a Chief Minister be brought to Delhi, no one has a clue. Nine ministers with additional charge may shed extra ministries - Prakash Javadekar, Piyush Goyal, Dharmendra Pradhan, Nitin Gadkari, Harsh Vardhan, Narendra Singh Tomar, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Smriti Irani and Hardeep Singh Puri.

Fly on the Wall | Chowksi fell into Ajit Doval’s trap

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Chowksi fell into Ajit Doval’s trap

The Mehul Chowksi saga has once again shown there is still a fire in the belly of 76-year old country’s top spymaster Ajit Doval. It now transpires that a core team drawn from the Intelligence Bureau, Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) and Strategic Policy Group (SPG) worked directly under Ajit Doval to execute “Operation Chowksi”. Prime Minister Modi has been burning midnight oil ever since Neerav Modi and Mehul Chowksi vanished from India after swallowing thousands of crores of banks’ money. Modi was upset that his photograph appeared on front pages with them to paint him as if he was patronizing them. The task of bringing them was handed over to National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. While Neerav Modi vanished to London and Chowksi ended up in Antigua as a citizen of tiny Iceland. Those privy to goings-on say that three persons of British origins were specially hired by Doval in London to locate Neerav Modi’s whereabouts. They found and clicked his photo and the lid was off. Indian spies could not have operated directly in the UK. Now legal proceedings are underway after his arrest. But in the Chowksi’s case, his Antiguian citizenship created a problem and Doval reported to have chalked out a “covert operation” sitting in his South Block Office. There is a whole trail behind how Choksi was 'honey trapped' by a woman during his evening stroll, who hired this beautiful woman and her accomplice, how the fugitive was lured to this woman’s apartment in Antigua, bundled in a car and taken to Dominica. This fascinating story is just another thriller from Ajit Doval’s secret diary which may perhaps never be known.

When Mumbai Police botched up Doval plan

Doval is a master of covert operations, works quietly and only a handful of people know how he won over six of Laldenga's seven commanders during the Mizo National Front insurgency era, remained underground for years in the Arakan in Burma & Chinese territory, played key role in Sikkim’s merger with India, rescued Romanian diplomat Liviu Radu in 1988 and went inside the Golden Temple, Amritsar days before Operation Black Thunder and negotiated the release of hijacked Indian Airlines flight IC-814 in Kandahar in 1999. It was due to his exemplary record that the Monmohan Singh government made him Director IB in July 2004. Even after he retired, the UPA took his services in “Operation Dawood Ibrahim”. Doval lured Chota Rajan who had split with Dawood and wanted to avenge the attack on his life in Bangkok in 2000. According to R K Singh who was Home Secretary in the UPA era and Modi government minister, Chota Rajan’s men were trained at a secret location in India with a plan to eliminate Dawood. In fact, Doval was briefing Rajan’s sharp-shooters, Vicky Malhotra and Farid Tanasha, at a 5-star hotel and handing over fake travel documents etc to reach Dubai. But that's when things went horribly wrong as cops from Mumbai landed there all of a sudden to arrest them. This was perhaps the first time when the Indian James Bond (behind the scenes only) lost his cool. He tried to explain to the team led by DCP Mumbai who he is. But all went in vain. One of the most audacious operations to eliminate the underworld don was unraveled because of an ugly turf war between India's security agencies. It was only after such failed operations that a new mechanism has been put in place where all intelligence agencies are under the NSA’s Command.

Winds of change are blowing!

When the going is good, many people will be your friends. When the going becomes tough, even your best friends will run away, sung artist William Onyeabor. After West Bengal polls, winds of change are blowing in reverse direction for the Establishment. The recent tough stance from the judiciary in states and SC has worried the government. The way Chief Justice of India N V Ramana ripped into the government’s proposed names for the CBI’s chief’s post at the selection committee meeting last week, has sent shivers down the spine of powers that be. Ramana had been deeply hurt ever since Andhra Chief Minister Jaganmohan Reddy made personal allegations against him. It is still a mystery as to why Reddy made such allegations who himself is at the mercy of CBI, ED & Income tax due to various corruption cases. But the outgoing CJI S A Bobade and collegium stood firmly behind Ramana. He is his own master and obliged to none.

Fly On the Wall | Why Pawar, Nitish missing in Action

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Why Pawar, Nitish missing in Action

Sharad Pawar had declared with a big fanfare to lend NCP’s support to the Trinamool Congress headed by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The Maratha strongman had also declared that he would campaign for the TMC candidates in West Bengal. The Congress was peeved at Pawar’s decision to support Mamata as NCP is sharing power in Maharashtra. The NCP supremo is also desirous to play a more active role in the UPA at the national level too. Realizing the sensitivities involved, NCP explained that Mamata Banerjee is close to the “Saheb” and the latter will only address a couple of rallies as a symbol of support. But Pawar could not make it in March as he was busy in resolving the crisis that erupted after Wazegate culminating in the resignation of Home Minister Anil Deshmukh. Later, Pawar developed severe abdomen pain leading to his admission at a private hospital. He was advised complete rest before he could be operated upon as his parameters were not fit to be operated upon. He cannot campaign anymore and there is no prospect of his being in action in West Bengal in near future either.

Nitish, Tejashwi keep away too

Sharad Pawar is not alone missing in action. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav are also keeping completely away in this round of Assembly polls. Though the Janata Dal (United) is contesting the West Bengal polls dumping its alliance partner BJP, Kumar has chosen to keep away and not campaign. On the other hand, the RJD is supporting the TMC despite being a partner of Congress in Bihar. But Tejashwi is also looking the other way and has not for campaigning. The JD (U) doesn’t explain why it has left its candidates in the lurch in West Bengal. However, a close confidante of Nitish Kumar said he is avoiding traveling West Bengal to keep the BJP and Mamta Banerjee in good humour. Mamata has a fractured leg and Nitish Kumar doesn’t want to rub salt on her wounds in the given situation. After all, Nitish Kumar has also been nursing national ambitions like Sharad Pawar. The Congress is also confused as it is hand-in-glove with the Left in West Bengal while fighting with the CPM in Kerala. Secondly, Rahul Gandhi has not rolled out his program to campaign in West Bengal so far either.

Priyanka goes missing too!!

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has gone into self quarantine after her husband Robert Vadra tested positive of Covid almost a week ago. The jolt came when she was drawing huge crowds during her rallies in Kerala. According to Congress insiders, she was able to connect better with the voters due to her style of campaigning causing some anxiety in some party quarters. Though Priyanka has now been tested negative, she continues to stay home. Whatever may be the reasons; her absence is a setback to the party as most of the party’s 30 star campaigners were missing in action including Capt Amrinder Singh, Navjot Singh Sidhu to name a few. Even Rahul Gandhi has been missing in action in West Bengal, at least until writing this column. Perhaps, it’s a season of leaders missing in action.

Missing frontline workers for Jab

The Prime Minister’s Task Force on Vaccination is burning midnight oil as Health and Frontline Workers (HFW) are missing in getting themselves vaccinated. Of the 3 crores HFWs only 65% came forward for the first vaccine dose during the past 90 days while 50% came for the second dose. The government is worried about these missing Covid warriors and vaccine hesitancy has clearly among them. It is worrisome as they are directly dealing with the deadly disease. The government toyed with the idea of imposing certain restrictions on those refusing to take the jab as suggested by experts and Indian Medical Association too. But these are tough times and the government cannot risk taking disciplinary action against them for refusing to take the jab. Dr Randeep Guleria, Director AIIMS and member of the PM’s Task Force, has been on record to say that this hesitancy may be because they want to wait and read more. He did not elaborate but many are worried as the government is not sharing the Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI) data. Though the government told Parliament that 89 adverse events took place and none of them was due to vaccination. But it has not shared the causes behind such deaths so far except in 13 cases.

PM outlines 5-fold plan to fight Covid surge

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  Central Teams for Maharashtra, Punjab & Chhattisgarh
• PM extremely concerned about Maharashtra
• Penal action against defaulters, tough steps

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

New Delhi, April 4

The PM today suggested a 5-fold strategy to contain the alarming rise in Covid cases in the country.

Two presentations were made before the Prime Minister on Covid and Vaccination at the high-level meeting as India jumped to number one slot in the world in Coronavirus cases witnessing a severe second wave. The PM advocated a five-fold strategy of Testing, Tracing, Treatment, Covid-appropriate behaviour (CPB) and Vaccination. The PM was particularly upset as 10 states contributed to more than 91% of cases and deaths due to COVID. Maharashtra contributed 57% of total cases and 47% deaths in the country in the last 14 days and Punjab and Chhattisgarh witnessed high numbers of cases. The Central teams will be sent to these three states.

The PM summoned the meeting immediately after Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba held discussions yesterday with the Chief Secretaries of the states.The PM’s meeting was attended by Principal Secretary P K Mishra, various secretaries to departments, NITI Aayog members and others.

The Cabinet Secretary briefed the Prime Minister about the outcome of his meeting with the Chief Secretaries of the states yesterday.

Short of lockdowns, the Centre wants states to impose penalties on defaulters in a big way in public places, restricting travel through public transport, setting up containment zones and restricting movements in markets, fair, melas, social and religious congregations that could become super spreader events. The Centre is upset that states are not vaccinating enough as total vaccination crossed 7.60 crores in 78 days averaging 9.80 lakhs vaccines a day. The PM highlighted the need to ensure effective implementation of containment measures, besides the involvement of community volunteers in active case search and management of containment zones. A special campaign for Covid appropriate behaviour with emphasis on 100% mask usage, personal hygiene and sanitation at public places /workplaces and health facilities will be organised from 6th April to 14 April 2021.