Fly on the wall
Harish Gupta
Modi Follows Manmohan Singh, For a Change
Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent a decade bitterly attacking Manmohan Singh’s government and rode to power in 2014 on a promise to undo the legacy of the UPA. But when it comes to counting caste, Modi appears to be walking a path already taken by his predecessor.
The irony is hard to miss: the NDA and UPA governments seem to be on the same page when it comes to counting caste. The 2011 population Census did not include a general caste enumeration. The Manmohan Singh government subsequently ordered a separate Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) in 2011 to collect caste names in a dis- aggregated manner.
Instead of producing a manageable list of castes, the exercise reportedly threw up around 46 lakh caste names, against just 4,147 caste entries in government records. For example the Social Justice and Empowerment ministry has a list of 2479 recognised OBC castes. But the Rohini Commission pegged this list at 2633. Then there are separate lists of states that differ from the central list. For example, the Central List of Maharashtra contains 256 OBC caste entries. But the state's official reservation list includes approximately 550 recognized backward castes.
This happened because during 2011 SECC counting, respondents were allowed to state their caste themselves. The enumerators did not keep the central and state list of castes. Therefore, the people recorded sub-castes, gotras and other variations, turning the exercise into a 46 lakhs plus statistical nightmare. It was largely due to this reason that the caste data was never officially released.
Now comes the Census 2027. There is a striking similarity with the earlier Caste count exercise. The enumerators' questionnaire will reportedly not carry a predefined list of castes. Enumerators will record the respondent’s answer verbatim rather than classify it into an officially prescribed category.
That raises an uncomfortable question: could Census 2027 produce an even bigger statistical maze? If respondents again freely identify their caste, gotra, varna or sub-caste, officials could potentially end up with more than 46 lakhs caste entries. The Modi government seems to be borrowing a page from Manmohan Singh’s playbook on caste counting.
Who Will Be the ‘Big Brother’?
Before they parted ways six years ago, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) was the BJP’s “big brother” in Punjab. The BJP was the junior partner, contesting just 23 of the 117 Assembly seats. The Modi-Sukhbir Badal meeting recently has revived speculation about an Akali-BJP reunion. But there is one big question: who will be the big brother this time?
Much has changed since 2020. The BJP has spent six years building its own organisation and has fought the 2022 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections independently. Its electoral record may have been disappointing, but the party is clearly in no mood to return as the junior partner. It wants a substantially larger share of the seats.
The Akalis, meanwhile, are unlikely to accept a subordinate role either. Punjab BJP president Kewal Singh Dhillon welcomed the Modi-Badal meeting but insisted that the BJP was preparing to contest all 117 seats. Privately, however, BJP leaders concede that any renewed understanding with the SAD would look very different from the old arrangement that collapsed over the farm laws.
A formal alliance may not be on the cards. Instead, an informal seat-sharing understanding could see the BJP contesting around 60-65 seats and the Akalis about 75, with “friendly fights” in several constituencies. The irony is that both parties need each other, yet neither wants to admit it. The BJP drew a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls despite an 18.56% vote share, while in 2022 it won just two Assembly seats with 6.6% votes. The Akalis fared no better. So, necessity may bring the estranged partners together—but the battle over who wears the bigger brother’s crown could be just as fierce as the election itself.
NDA Allies Step Out of Line
A new unease appears to be stirring within the NDA, with allies showing signs that they may no longer be content playing second fiddle to the BJP. The latest signal came from NCPI leader Sudip Bandyopadhyay, who urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to appoint an NDA convenor. The demand has surprised political circles because no such proposal has been publicly made by any of the allies since Modi came to power in 2014. Bandyopadhyay argued that a dedicated coordinator would improve communication and alliance management, particularly when Parliament is not in session.
Significantly, neither the BJP nor major allies such as the TDP and JD(U) has chosen to comment. The NCPI, which has 20 Lok Sabha MPs who came from the TMC, is increasingly being seen as part of a wider bloc of allies seeking a greater say. The signs are visible elsewhere too. The JD(U) has begun drawing its own red lines in Bihar. Its objection to the Samrat Chaudhary government's decision to turn more than 550 schools into model institutions, rename them Saraswati Vidya Niketan and paint them saffron, was carefully worded but unmistakable. “Education has only one colour,” JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said, signaling discomfort with the politicization of education.
The TDP's Chandrababu Naidu, meanwhile, remains the quintessential back-seat operator—quietly negotiating and getting results. It was due to BJP's allies that the FCRA Bill was sent to a Joint Parliamentary Committee. Individually, these may look like routine alliance politics. Collectively, they suggest something bigger: NDA allies are beginning to assert themselves—and the BJP is being quietly put on notice.
