Model Code of Conduct to come in force on March 6-8

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

exclusive report 

Model Code of Conduct to come in force on March 6-8

PM Modi to launch 70 projects in 70 days

Countdown for Lok Sabha poll begins

Amit Shah placates annoyed Mps

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec. 29

The countdown for the Lok Sabha poll has begun which is just 70 days away. As the Model Code of Conduct is likely to come in force any time between March 6-8 when the Election Commission issues notification, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be on a hurricane tour of the country inaugurating one project or the other and rolling out series of welfare schemes to placate all section of society. All infrastructure ministries including the Road Transport have been directed to complete projects. The Road ministry itself is in the process of completing projects worth Rs one lakh crores. In order to steal the last mile advantage, Modi will be on a spree to open projects and club them with Congress bashing. A number of AIIMS in various states which are being set up, may be opened by February. If sources are to be believed, Modi will inaugurate one project a day in the next 50 working days.

If sources are to be believed, the government will not wait for the Interim Budget to be presented on February 1 by the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to announce pre-poll doles. In fact, most of the measures relating to the farming, MSMEs, jobless youth and others will be announced immediately after the Parliament's session on January 8.

Since the Interim Budget session will be in continuation of the Winter session, both houses of parliament will re-assemble on January 30. The Budget session will end on February 15.

The PM is meticulously planning his 70-day working plan and traveling almost every day to launch one project or the other as part of his mission “Phir Ek Baar Modi Sarkar”. If he was in Varanasi today, he will be in Port Blair tomorrow where Netaji declared India's first War of Independence.

A high-level team comprising of BJP president Amit Shah, Arun Jaitley and Railway & Coal Minister Piyush Goyal is over-seeing the 2019 poll planning. They are in regular touch with the PM on an hourly basis to discuss every move. Though “Phir Ek Baar Modi Sarkar” tagline is yet to be given the go-ahead for the 2019 parliamentary polls as Modi wants something more catchy.

Piyush Goyal has ordered a fresh nation-wide survey which is being conducted by three leading pollsters to gauge the mood of the nation in different regions. Sources say it was ordered in the third week of December and the report will come in the second week of January. A similar survey by two leading agencies was conducted in August which had given BJP 300 plus seats. But the situation has undergone a sea-change after losses in three Hindi speaking states leaving Modi-Amit Shah team bewildered.

Shah is now holding parleys with 350 Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha Mps. He meets 40 Mps every day in two batches so that he could listen to them carefully. He has already met Mps from Bihar, Jharkhand & UP. This is first time he has done in 4 years and signals a change in the handling. Surely, the party doesn't want to leave anything chances before the D-day in May, 2019.

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Is the clock ticking for BJP ?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Is the clock ticking for BJP ?

Ramdev dumps BJP, Apna Dal threatens, Zafar Sareshwala distances

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec 26

There is no respite for the ruling BJP and suffering one set back after the other. If it lost a key Bihar ally last week-RLSP, today was the turn of Swami Ramdev who turned his back towards the saffron party. He declared in Madurai today that he won't support any person or oppose any party

and can't tell who will be the “Next PM”. Ramdev's comments appear to be a huge rebuff to PM Modi. He has been closely associated with the BJP, besides supporting its national election campaign in 2014. He said "Now the political situation is very difficult.”

Another shocker came from the Apna Dal in UP which is a key ally in the NDA. The party's chief Ashish Patel, whose wife Anupriya Patel is the Union Minister of State for Health, said BJP's partners in Uttar Pradesh are upset and the party must address the issue. He said in Mirzapur that the party must learn from its recent losses in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress formed the government. “ The SP-BSP alliance is a challenge for us. Allies in Uttar Pradesh are upset. Leadership at the centre must do something, else NDA (National Democratic Alliance) would suffer in the state," said Patel.

Obviously Apna Dal is also showing its teeth to BJP leadership with months to go for the 2019 general elections.

The biggest shocker of the day was Yoga teacher Ramdev, who went on to say that it would be difficult to say who will be the next prime minister. "Now the political situation is very difficult. We cannot say who will [be] the next prime minister or who will lead the country, but situation is very interesting..." Ramdev said in Tamil Nadu's Madurai.

"I am not focusing on politics," he said.

"We don't have a political or religious agenda but we want a spiritual country and a spiritual world. Through yoga and Vedic practices, we are making a divine, prosperous and spiritual India," said Ramdev.

What shocked the political watchers was Sareshwala's nuanced statement when he said, “I have been very closely associated with Prime Minister Narendra Modi for nearly 13 years now. However, my association was always limited to PM Narendra Modi and was never with the BJP – in fact, I have never even visited the party’s office in Gujarat or in Delhi.”

Zafar Sareshwala said that BJP has lost the plot and “things are slipping out of Narendra Modi’s hands.”

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PM, Pawar shedding weight, politicians gearing up to be physically fit before polls

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special Report 

PM, Pawar shedding weight

politicians gearing up to be physically fit before polls

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec. 25

Come elections and leaders are working hard to lose weight. With elections are just 100 days away, top leaders of various political parties are doing everything under the Sun to lose weight. The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi is working very hard to shed weight and succeeded losing only three kg. Though he has a gym at his South Block office, he doesn't find time to do it regularly. Yet, he tries hard and do a lots of exercises under a trainer from a para military force. In a month, the PM is able to use the gym for 15 days only. He wants to lose another 7 kg before the parliamentary polls are announced.

The lead has been taken by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley who has shed 20 kg weight. Though he underwent a series of surgeries during the past two years including kidney transplant. But he is very strict with his diet and now fully fit and regained a lot of energy.

Another politician who has shed 15 kg weight is NCP president and Rajya Sabha MP Sharad Pawar. He is determined to loose fat and flab. He is undergoing rigorous physical exercises. He has become agile and walking briskly these days.

HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar has installed his own treadmill at his residence and a regular at the Constitution Club of India gym. Environment and Science & technology Minister Harsh Wardhan is also gym regular. Steel Minister Chaudhary Birender Singh is regular at the Lodhi Gardens and so is parliamentary minister of state Vijay Goel. The number of politicians joining the CCI gym is rising and reflects growing awareness among them.

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BJP in a Bind on advancing Assembly polls in three states

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special Report

BJP in a Bind on advancing Assembly polls in three states

Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana on the radar

"Time of strengthen NDA” says Amit Shah

wooing Marandi in Jharkhand

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec 24

The BJP leadership is in a bind as to what it should do about Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand where Assembly polls are due between October-December 2019.

The core policy group in the BJP is studying the pros & cons of advancing the polls in these states and hold them simultaneously with the Lok Sabha in April-May.

Though the BJP contested the Assembly polls in these states on its on and successful formed governments in Haryana and Jharkhand on its own. In Maharashtra, it entered into a post-poll alliance with the Shiv Sena for the assembly though it secured 122 seats while Sena got 63 in the Assembly of 288. Though both were partners in the Lok Sabha polls, they fell out during the Assembly polls. However, they formed the government together in the state and have been estranged partners as Sena could never reconcile of losing the post of the Chief Minister to BJP. The view is that the BJP may swing the Assembly polls again in these states in its favour by riding on the Modi wave if they are held along with the Lok Sabha.

However, the reasons for advancing the polls in these three states differ from state to state.

In Maharashtra, there is a strong feeling that BJP must go with Shiv Sena in the Lok Sabha polls. But the Sena wants assembly polls be held along with Lok Sabha and share Assembly seats on a 50:50 sharing formula. The Sena wants that the post of the Chief Ministers to be shared for two and a half years each irrespective of number of seats won by any of the partners.

The BJP leadership was on a high until it lost thee Hindi speaking states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh to Congress. Since December 12, the BJP leadership is trying to retain allies and conceding their demands too. It wants to retain its existing allies and working hard to expand the NDA. It knows that losing Sena would be a set back in the present scenario.

However, the other view is that the BJP should not concede the post of the Chief Minister to Sena irrespective of the compulsions. A senior member of the BJP Core Group said he is of the firm view that BJP should not succumb to the Sena antics and should not hesitate to go it alone in the Lok Sabha polls. There is no need to advance the Assembly polls. This will send a strong political message. However, no final decision in this regard has been taken either way and the BJP is keeping all options open.

The BJP president Amit Shah has been quoted by core group leader as saying, “Its time to strengthen the NDA.”

In Jharkhand, the BJP trying to woo Babulal Marandi, president Jharkhand Vikas Morcha which secured 8 Assembly seats out of 81 and 10% popular votes. Its a different matter that the BJP took away six of its MLAs in its fold and he is angry since then. Now the BJP doesn't want him to go over to the Congress-JMM alliance. He wants the post of the Chief Minister. In fact, he was with the BJP way back in 2000 and state's chief minister too. But parted company later. The BJP is willing to make him a Cabinet minister at the centre right away.

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Modi considering Farm Loan Waiver Scheme

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi considering Farm Loan Waiver Scheme

Rs 2 lakh crore bonanza on cards to farmers, weavers, artisans, middle class

Interim budget will be full of free-bees

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Dec 20

After debunking the farm loan waivers by the Congress governments at the Centre and states, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seriously toying with the idea of giving massive sops to the farm sector including a loan waiver scheme.

The PMO is of the considered view that loan waiver schemes had helped the parties winning the elections. It was tried by the VP Singh-Devi Lal combine during the 1989 Lok Sabha poll campaign and helped immensely. The final cost to the Central Exchequer in 1990 was Rs 10,000 crores. In 2008, the Manmohan Singh government waived the loans for farmers to the tune of Rs 52260 crores and returned to power.

Highly placed sources in the PMO say that data is being collected on a war-footing basis to identify the number of farmers in each state who will require National Loan Waiver benefits. The loan waivers worth more than Rs 2 lakh crores crores to send a strong signal to the farming community that the Modi government is serious about their well being and taking them out of the distress.

The government has already asked the RBI interim dividend and may also seek extra money within the next one and a half months. A high powered committee will be constituted shortly to lay down guidelines as to how much money RBI will need in its reserve. This committee will be asked to submit its report within 20 days and pave the way for massive transfer of funds from RBI to the government.

Though the BJP leadership has not undertaken a detailed review of the recent losses in the state assembly polls (or not shared reasons of its defeat with the media), it is under pressure to give doles to the various sectors before the Lok Sabha polls are announced in February-end March-first week.

It has been decided that loans will be waived for the weavers community and artisans which are mostly in UP. Similarly, the middle-class will be given some tax rebates. The PM has already announced massive GST relief brining tax regime from 28% to 18%. This will hit the government by another Rs 20000 crores a year. This loss can be off-set if the buoyancy in the economy comes soon.

Those facing GST penalties and other problems may also be given one time amnesty so that they can get rid of harassment.

In order to garner support from the 263 million farmers and their many millions dependents, the Modi government would move towards waiving loans to create a positive climate.

The party leadership feels that Modi's personal graph has not been dented even after the loss of power in three Hindi speaking states. Therefore, immediate relief measures even if they are to the tune of Rs 2 lakh crores or above, could turn the tables nationally in favour of BJP for the Lok Sabha polls.

Insiders say nothing less than the massive doze of concessions to all the sections including the MSMEs, GST, Farmers, weavers & Middle-class will work in favour of Modi.

Economists including NITI Aayog have already cautioned that farm loans waivers would widen a fiscal deficit which has been capped at 3.3 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), or Rs 6.24 lakh crore.

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