by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
If the Bihar election outcome this week has a message cutting across states and regions through decades of politics, it is that the country's fabled diversity is actually a fusion bomb of sorts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP committed the worst blunder since their May 2014 victory as they got oblivious of the fact that they'd swept Bihar in the Lok Sabha poll because the enemies were divided. It was different this time, with Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav re-forging their alliance with Congress in toe. Their union this year was BJP's nemesis. What is true of Bihar is true of the country down the ages. The former Janata Party could topple the mighty Congress under Indira Gandhi in 1977 because all opposition parties, big or small, leftist or rightist, could be put under a single umbrella at the initiative of the late Jaya Prakash Narayan.
I am not sure who deserves most "credit" for uniting the opposition to BJP in Bihar this time round. Is it due to the party's sub-soil of bigotry and arrogance that it cannot hide behind the curtain of development promises, like sabka saath sabka vikas? Is it because BJP as a party is not a quick thinker as its strategy is based on logistics—60000 party workers deployed in Bihar and 40 ministers—and not on ideas? Is it because BJP is losing grip over its talkative fringe elements ? It is possible that all these factors have contributed to the dramatic re-election of Nitish Kumar in Bihar. But the fusion bomb that blew on Modi would not have been critical if it lacked a core, a credible face, in Nitish Kumar. Pollsters have noted the effortless transfer of votes among RJD, JD(U) and Congress that marked the Bihar election. One doubts if it were to happen without the announcement being made beforehand of Nitish Kumar as the coalition's candidate for the post of chief minister. On the other hand, BJP lost many assembly segments where it had won last year because the people were not sure who'd be the party's nominee as chief minister. Lesson: Modi's franchisee model is way past its use-by date.
Though there are many states which will go to polls during the next two years including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Goa, Uttrakhand, etc. But none is likely to impact the national political scene as much as UP will. Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalitha surely will impact the national political scene. But they themselves are unlikely to move to the centre to play a lead role. A win for the Left in Kerala may weaken the Congress further and it will be music to the ears of Mamata and Jaya. But the real test of Modi will come when the election for the President and Vice President of India takes place in July 2017. It will become more difficult for the Modi government to win these polls if the BJP continues to lose one state after the other.
Therefore, it's the Assembly polls in UP that will be crucial in evolving Opposition politics. Like Nitish Kumar has emerged as the face of Bihar assembly election of 2015, that of Uttar Pradesh in 2017 may be Mayawati, a woman of exceptional administrative competence. She temporarily lost her buoyancy towards the close of her last term as chief minister (2005-12) largely due to intrigues by the UPA at the Centre. Uttar Pradesh is a bellwether state as its electoral outcome will set the stage for general election due in 2019.
Though Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is defined by its caste identity, she has in the past succeeded winning upper castes, intermediate castes and Muslims. In ideal circumstances, UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and his father, Mulayam Singh Yadav, could be the pivot of anti-BJP votes in the state. But the Yadav family has shot itself in the foot by betraying the Nitish-Lalu-Congress coalition in Bihar.
After being offered the leadership (president and chairman of the parliamentary board) of several socialist parties (JD (U), RJD etc) under the Samajwadi Party's banner and symbol, and accepting it, Mulayan Singh took 180-degree turn. He suddenly walked out and as if this was not enough, he formed a six party front of his own and put up candidates across Bihar. Mulayam is regarded as a closet ally of BJP and a suspect now. SP's popularity in the state is also at an all-time low, bringing the present regime the popular sobriquet of "goonda raj".
By 2017, therefore, there may not remain so much of SP as to tip the scale either way. On the other hand, it can be a gigantic phalanx of anti-BJP castes and religions in a state of 199 million people (2011 census), which could be the sixth largest if it were a country. The state is also among the top five SC-inhabited ones, with 20 per cent SC population, a factor which is again weighed heavily in favour of Mayawati emerging as the natural leader of a new formation. However, population shares matter little for leadership but what counts are people's memories of past leaders and how they compare with the present lot. Mayawati shines against the Mulayam Singh’s 2002 SP government and is remembered as a moderniser who did her best to turn around the problem-ridden state.
There are two things that Mayawati needs to do to regain her key position in 2017. First, she has to work on a broad social coalition. Besides, she must do an image makeover of herself, a Mayawati 2.0, who is caste conscious but not casteist and avoids all caste-based slurs, like “Manuvadi”. BJP has lost the plot because of its lack of faith in equality of man. Uttar Pradesh is waiting for a new Mayawati who sees all human being including upper caste Hindus as equal.
