by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
In Delhi, votes are not "caste". Elsewhere, they still are. Delhi is a cauldron of immigrants. Most of these men and women, particularly the politically active young ones, care little for the caste of the neighbour, and often not about his or her own. The Delhiite is a bit like the lead actor in "NH10" who came to a police officer after her husband had been attacked by bandits of the upper caste, and when he asked her what was her own caste after she'd identified herself as a "Singh", she broke out in a cold sweat. How would she know how many kinds of Singhs were there? What does she care? Delhi is a leveller of caste. It is no wonder that the state voted for change in recent times not once but twice and has retained the mercurial Arvind Kejriwal as Chief Minister.
Bihar is another ball game. When Nitish Kumar trumped the Lalu Yadav-Rabri Devi combine in 2005, it was not just due to popular anger against the incumbent, as it is happening in Delhi since last year, with the rout of the Congress government of Sheila Dikshit. On the other hand, it was due to Lalu's MY (Muslim+Yadav) alliance that went for a six, taking with it a large bundle of mahadalit or ultra-backward castes whose number nobody knows, as the central government is meticulously withholding the findings of the 2011 Census on caste, itself a novelty after 1931. A decade after his triumphant performance, Nitish saw the table turning when a large group, probably the mahadalit again, bade farewell to him to tie up with the upper caste and the bania community, BJP's traditional voter base. Mahadalit, on the other hand, stands within the Scheduled Caste spectrum of which a forward part, led by Ram Vilas Paswan, has long been in the BJP's embrace. And now Jitan Manjhi, who temporarily replaced Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister, has stepped into the saffron coalition. And the backward alliance's power has been boosted by the presence of an NDA ally, BLSD leader Upendra Khushwaha, in its midst. In reality, therefore, the much-trumpeted 'Mahajot' of Nitish-Lalu works out to an alliance of a section of Yadav and a gaggle of OBCs cognate to Nitish's own caste, the Kurmis. It is OBC Vs SC.
Social scientists may still argue that the caste landscape of India is shifting, with even Bihar having an increasing number of voters who vote in self-interest and not in the interest of their caste. But that is no more than a conjecture. I have waded through loads of 'studies' by non-profits who dot Bihar but have found none that offers any reliable statistic on voter behaviour actually changing in the state.
If votes are still being "caste" in Bihar, and not cast as in Delhi, is it possible to take a safe bet on who will win? Probably not. It is because nobody knows the caste census figures, thus making estimates too nebulous to risk one's money on. But I still have a reason to place the odds on NDA. It is because of the consistent power the Mahadalit are showing in Bihar polls. Moving over to Nitish and his share of OBC followers, they pulled down Rabri government as early as 2000, and again in 2005. They shifted over to BJP in 2014, and NDA grabbed 31 of the state's 40 Lok Sabha seats. Their electoral clout is enormous. It is also logical. It is worthwhile to remember that Bihar has long been a cesspool of mis-governance, with the OBC, who are relatively well placed than the SC to cope with the vagaries of life, emigrating to other states in large numbers. That could have left a larger share to the SC, including Mahadalit, on the list of voters. It is important to keep in mind that the Lalu-Nitish combine is hardly a caste coalition. It is actually a multiplication of the OBC numbers. Though the Congress aspires to get a share of the cake by joining the alliance, it is doubtful if there will be anything left on its plate as it is historically seen as an offshoot of the same upper caste that now stands solidly behind the BJP.
Congress president Sonia Gandhi seems to have confidence on Muslim votes (despite repeated rebuffs she got in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra), but the entry into the Bihar poll fray of Hyderabad-based AIMIM of Salahuddin Owaisi, with its reputation of polarising Muslim votes, may leave the Congress, if not Lalu, twiddling their thumb. Modi's NDA, on the other hand, has no great expectation of minority votes. It remains unaffected by these votes going any which way. But the Nitish camp has left too wide a room for it. It must pay a price if it goes to a third box which is reportedly receiving "required support" from the BJP.
But where will the Nitish-led ‘secular coalition’ stand if it loses Bihar? There is little doubt that it will lose the authority and power it displayed since May 2014 in mobilising every non-NDA party in Parliament against Modi and his reforms. Besides, the composition of the Rajya Sabha will start changing from next year, with the Congress’ grip gradually loosening. The regional parties who are sitting on the fence, will also join Modi’s reform agenda. Therefore, the fate of Modi’s big-ticket reforms including the Goods and Services Tax law, hangs in the balance till the composition of the next Bihar assembly is known.
(The author is National Editor, Lokmat group)
In Delhi, votes are not "caste". Elsewhere, they still are. Delhi is a cauldron of immigrants. Most of these men and women, particularly the politically active young ones, care little for the caste of the neighbour, and often not about his or her own. The Delhiite is a bit like the lead actor in "NH10" who came to a police officer after her husband had been attacked by bandits of the upper caste, and when he asked her what was her own caste after she'd identified herself as a "Singh", she broke out in a cold sweat. How would she know how many kinds of Singhs were there? What does she care? Delhi is a leveller of caste. It is no wonder that the state voted for change in recent times not once but twice and has retained the mercurial Arvind Kejriwal as Chief Minister.
Bihar is another ball game. When Nitish Kumar trumped the Lalu Yadav-Rabri Devi combine in 2005, it was not just due to popular anger against the incumbent, as it is happening in Delhi since last year, with the rout of the Congress government of Sheila Dikshit. On the other hand, it was due to Lalu's MY (Muslim+Yadav) alliance that went for a six, taking with it a large bundle of mahadalit or ultra-backward castes whose number nobody knows, as the central government is meticulously withholding the findings of the 2011 Census on caste, itself a novelty after 1931. A decade after his triumphant performance, Nitish saw the table turning when a large group, probably the mahadalit again, bade farewell to him to tie up with the upper caste and the bania community, BJP's traditional voter base. Mahadalit, on the other hand, stands within the Scheduled Caste spectrum of which a forward part, led by Ram Vilas Paswan, has long been in the BJP's embrace. And now Jitan Manjhi, who temporarily replaced Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister, has stepped into the saffron coalition. And the backward alliance's power has been boosted by the presence of an NDA ally, BLSD leader Upendra Khushwaha, in its midst. In reality, therefore, the much-trumpeted 'Mahajot' of Nitish-Lalu works out to an alliance of a section of Yadav and a gaggle of OBCs cognate to Nitish's own caste, the Kurmis. It is OBC Vs SC.
Social scientists may still argue that the caste landscape of India is shifting, with even Bihar having an increasing number of voters who vote in self-interest and not in the interest of their caste. But that is no more than a conjecture. I have waded through loads of 'studies' by non-profits who dot Bihar but have found none that offers any reliable statistic on voter behaviour actually changing in the state.
If votes are still being "caste" in Bihar, and not cast as in Delhi, is it possible to take a safe bet on who will win? Probably not. It is because nobody knows the caste census figures, thus making estimates too nebulous to risk one's money on. But I still have a reason to place the odds on NDA. It is because of the consistent power the Mahadalit are showing in Bihar polls. Moving over to Nitish and his share of OBC followers, they pulled down Rabri government as early as 2000, and again in 2005. They shifted over to BJP in 2014, and NDA grabbed 31 of the state's 40 Lok Sabha seats. Their electoral clout is enormous. It is also logical. It is worthwhile to remember that Bihar has long been a cesspool of mis-governance, with the OBC, who are relatively well placed than the SC to cope with the vagaries of life, emigrating to other states in large numbers. That could have left a larger share to the SC, including Mahadalit, on the list of voters. It is important to keep in mind that the Lalu-Nitish combine is hardly a caste coalition. It is actually a multiplication of the OBC numbers. Though the Congress aspires to get a share of the cake by joining the alliance, it is doubtful if there will be anything left on its plate as it is historically seen as an offshoot of the same upper caste that now stands solidly behind the BJP.
Congress president Sonia Gandhi seems to have confidence on Muslim votes (despite repeated rebuffs she got in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra), but the entry into the Bihar poll fray of Hyderabad-based AIMIM of Salahuddin Owaisi, with its reputation of polarising Muslim votes, may leave the Congress, if not Lalu, twiddling their thumb. Modi's NDA, on the other hand, has no great expectation of minority votes. It remains unaffected by these votes going any which way. But the Nitish camp has left too wide a room for it. It must pay a price if it goes to a third box which is reportedly receiving "required support" from the BJP.
The NDA has the edge as a new caste experiment is
taking place with Owaisi,
Mulayam & Pawar spoiling Nitish's party
If Nitish still manages to retain his seat in power, with the help of Lalu, it will of course give Prime Minister Modi a bloody nose. His well-known concern for development and growth will remain floating around as long-surviving jokes on the country's lore, like the late Indira Gandhi's bid to remove poverty. It will also have terrible consequences for BJP's proposed caste dynamics in North India's Hindi-speaking states. The Upper Caste-SC alliance may become a non-starter. That sends the BJP back to square one. It may surely try to create a rift between Nitish and Lalu as the former considers the RJD supremo a poisonous snake.
But where will the Nitish-led ‘secular coalition’ stand if it loses Bihar? There is little doubt that it will lose the authority and power it displayed since May 2014 in mobilising every non-NDA party in Parliament against Modi and his reforms. Besides, the composition of the Rajya Sabha will start changing from next year, with the Congress’ grip gradually loosening. The regional parties who are sitting on the fence, will also join Modi’s reform agenda. Therefore, the fate of Modi’s big-ticket reforms including the Goods and Services Tax law, hangs in the balance till the composition of the next Bihar assembly is known.
(The author is National Editor, Lokmat group)
