The Consensus Man

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The 2014 election is a watershed event not only for the larger issues of governance but in human terms too. It is the first time that the country witnesses an election not commandeered by the 'big guns' of Indian politics. Like L. K. Advani or Pranab Mukherjee. While Advani can best play a bit role as ordained by Narendra Modi, the playwright-producer and lead cast of the BJP's 2014 number, Mukherjee got trapped by his own Congress party into the gilded cage of Rashtrapati Bhavan a couple of years back.

The only other person with a touch of the statesman aura, who's still left, is Sharadrao Pawar. The "baron of Baramati", besides carrying in his head memories of half a century of political acrobatics, is also one of the rare species of old Congressmen with network of acquaintances spread across politicians of all parties, bureaucrats, social activists, lawyers, and common men. But Pawar in 2014 is the lion in winter. In 1998, when he broke off with 'mother ship', the Congress, after a showdown with Sonia Gandhi, and set up his NCP with a handful of his followers, the rebellion didn't go entirely waste. In his native Maharashtra, at least, NCP was able to chart its own course. Forcing the Congress to accept it in a marriage of convenience, the NCP has consistently offered to the former the proverbial crutches to hobble along in the large West Indian state of as many as 48 parliamentary constituencies. Without the give-and-take between the two parties, it is doubtful if the Congress could win in 17, and the NCP in eight, seats. The symbiosis worked equally well in the assembly poll, also in 2009, and the coalition, however, wobbly is still in power.

But NCP and its boss are losing sheen. The Pawar family has become the butt of complaints, of both corruption and arrogance. His daughter Supriya Sule, who is contesting from the family borough of Baramati, has suddenly got into a pretty awkward situation with uncle Ajit Pawar, also deputy Chief Minister of the state and its irrigation minister, having reportedly threatened the voters that they'd have no water if they failed to vote for his dear niece. The complaint, now before the Central Election Commission, is a ridiculous self-goal that may cost Supriya votes if not the match.

Pawar, once the iron man, is getting rustier by the day. With campaigning at its peak last week, Sanjay Khodake, the NCP key leader of Amaravati in the Vidarbha region, just quit the party. So did Deepak Kesarkar, the party's anchor at Ratnagiri in the Konkan belt. Pawar's own rallies have also lost their magnetism. With the young crowd absolutely disinterested in his bumbling litany of the election season, NCP managers are now shifting the venue of his speeches from rally grounds to marriage halls. The man himself is clearly unable to come to terms with his fading years. There were reports a few months back that he had a meeting with top BJP leader in Dubai and later Pawar met Narendra Modi too. But he soon began denying it. That led to another rumour that something went wrong somewhere. And now, 16 years after walking out of Sonia Gandhi's house, and her party, on the ground that, being a foreigner, she must not harbor the ambition to lead the government, Pawar has begun cooing that she is indeed a "better leader" than Modi. He further complimented her saying that she is the "cementing factor" for the UPA.

However addle-headed be his utterances, there is still considerable realpolitik about Pawar which a canny politician like Modi may not lose sight of. Pawar's real problem is with the Congress, or rather its top leaders who neither forgive nor forget. On the other hand, Modi's source of discomfort in the large western state, which houses most of the country's industrial investment, is Shiv Sena, a local party given to regionalism, xenophobia, and what not. It is a potential pain in the neck for Modi if he wins the race as he is committed to make sure that the wheels of industry, jammed during UPA-2, are ready to spin again.

The two mis-marriages—between Modi's BJP and the Shiv Sena on one hand, and Congress-NCP on the other—can certainly be set right through a set of divorces and re-alliances post-Lok Sabha polls and before the Assembly elections in the state. In any case, Udhav Thackeray never found any virtues in Modi for a long time. It is only now that he started praising Modi publicly. In a way, his cousin Raj Thackeray of MNS proved smarter even if he draws a blank in the Lok Sabha this time too. The state's historical ties with the Congress—the party being born in Bombay (now Mumbai) in 1885—has become inconsequential to the new generation that lives in the present. It has no leaders worth their name in the state. In the recent past, there was a procession of Congress chief ministers getting implicated in scams. On the other hand, Pawar used his long innings in politics to build a formidable regional organization. In the 2009 assembly elections, it won 113 seats but garnered 40.27 per cent of the votes polled in places where it contested.

On May 16, NCP is unlikely to show more MPs than the Shiv Sena, the latter riding high on the Modi monsoon wind. But, with its founder Balasaheb no more, his successors locked in a battle, and its ideological plank, keeping Maharashtra reserved for ‘Maratha manoos’, tattered with increasing mobility of occupations, if Modi forms the government, he may have no option to reopening dialogue with Pawar.

Pawar’s Plan- B is also interesting. In the event of Modi unable to cross 190 seats mark and committed allies restricted 25 seats, the non-NDA parties numbering 320-330 seats will play a bigger role. Since Nitish Kumar won’t be acceptable to Lalu and BSP won’t accept Mulayam, the Left won’t touch Mamata with a barge pole and DMK-ADMK won’t see eye-to-eye, Sharad Pawar is the only leader in the non-NDA dispensation to emerge as the Consensus Man. His praise for Sonia Gandhi should be seen in this context. The Maratha war horse may have lost the battle for Delhi three times. But he is trying still.

(The author is National Editor of National group at Delhi)