by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
The Fear Factor
Elections in India are seldom marked by the
swinging door culture, with one set bidding farewell and hoping to come back
the next time, and the other group entering the government cautiously, with as
little noise as possible. In India, however, some elections become gladiatorial combat. Like in 1977, when the
state-controlled television station was made to broadcast, without notice, the
popular film Sholay, hoping that it might persuade people to stay indoors on a
day the opposition was holding a big rally.
It was a mark of nervousness of the Emergency regime that
had gone to the extreme of putting thousands in prison without trial, and
suspending the Fundamental Rights in the Constitution. It's natural, as tyrants
usually have sweaty palms when they find their victims staring at them as
equals, and asking questions. But the conduct of the UPA-2 Government is
difficult to fathom. It has surely fallen much short of the people's
expectations-be it in managing the affairs of the state, maintaining the
economic or social balance, or being seen by others as men of integrity. Still,
the UPA government is not accused of a massive governmental collapse, as in
1991 under the Chandrashekhar-headed coalition, least of all like the rampant
banditry that had marked the 1975-77 Emergency regime. Yet the UPA seems too
shocked and scared at the prospect of losing power. It is over-reacting to
events and generally whistling in the dark. A closer scrutiny of its attempts
to put up a brave face shows that, rather than fearing the prospect of the
"swing door" really revolving as the results are declared on May 16,
it is petrified by the possibility of BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra
Modi actually making his way to Race
Course Road. Rather than trying to get re-elected
to power, it seems that the top agenda of the Congress party (which is all but
the UPA) at the moment is to stop Modi at any cost.
The panic in Congress was best evident when party chief
Sonia Gandhi beseeched Muslims to vote tactically, in a "united
manner", to stall Modi. It pointed at a lurking fear that Modi's coming to
power could be just too risky. It was not the case in 2009 when an avuncular L.
K. Advani was flaunted as BJP's choice as prime minister and the campaign
progressed like a tea party with hardly any hitches. But 2014 is a different
story. As soon as Modi was anointed as BJP's prime ministerial candidate in
September 2013, news started appearing about his "wife" with whom he
disassociated with some 45 years ago. The lady remained away from the glare of
the media. After the Congress was routed in Assembly polls in December, the
news appeared that Modi, as Gujarat Chief Minister, had reportedly ordered
surveillance on a woman for some reason. The Union Cabinet drew up a decision
to get a judge to inquire into it under the Commission of Inquiries Act. The
Cabinet was in a race for time as such appointments could come under the lens
of the Model Code of Conduct. Hence the hurry. But the Law Minister failed to
find a judge. It's laughable when Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde was made to
announce that the judge would be selected before the counting of votes on May
16. What's the hurry? Ask the ally NCP's Praful Patel and National Conference's
Omar Abdullah.
It is clear that the idea behind all this snoopgate
bluster is to boost the morale of Modi-haters of all denomination-secular
bleeding hearts, conspiracy theorists, and a large section of Congress' own
supporters who have been doubting the efficacy of their own leaders. The
personal hatred against Modi has become visceral among the top leaders of the
Congress, whose choice of expletives betray extreme skittishness.
Significantly, the Congress, in its desperation to keep Modi at bay, seems
working on a Plan B designed to prop up regional chieftains like Mamata
Banerjee or Jayalalitha. It is interesting that even the Election Commission
seemingly looked the other way when, on the third day of polling in Bengal with nine constituencies in the fray, Mamata's
Trinamool used its army of goons to rig the poll.
From Congress (or its high command's) point of view, BJP,
as a party, is a known adversary. The two hobnob socially, dine together, and
sit side by side in several parliamentary committees, where laws are drafted
through bi-partisan negotiation as well as individual bargaining. Having
observed the "People Like Us" (PLU) BJP leaders like Vajpayee, Advani
or Sushma Swraj from close quarters over the decades in Lutyen's Delhi, the top
leaders of the Congress, including Sonia Gandhi, its president, apparently
developed a quiet confidence that even if they came to power it'd make little
difference to their safety and reputation. In his six years as NDA prime
minister, Vajpayee never showed any enthusiasm to expedite investigation into
graft charges against the late Rajiv Gandhi that were still alive. Advani
followed Vajpayee and Sushma Swaraj even attended prayer meeting for Rajiv
Gandhi at Veer Bhumi.
But Modi is a known unknown, a leader used to setting his
own terms of engagement with others, and, most disturbingly for the Congress
high command, someone who's not prepared to let the Gandhi family take him for
granted. In 2014, the Congress'
'Snoopgate' cry became louder and louder as he just mentioned about
Gandhi son-in-law Robert Vadra's questionable feat of turning the capital of a
mere one lakh rupees into a Rs 300-crore wealth in just three years. It lends
substance to the Gandhis' fear that this man from Gujarat
is anything but biddable and, given a chance, can get up close and personal.
Modi has
instilled a sense
of fear of the
unknown
Those now in power in Delhi who are trembling with 'Modi fever'
know that the man means business and can get both tough and mean. He is not the
kind of a person like Morarji Desai who will merely set up just a commission of
inquiry against Indira Gandhi and her Emergency mis-rule, and thought his job
was finished. But Modi will be different and that will set cat among the
pigeons and threaten to make accountable for the privileged in the UPA who have enjoyed power without
responsibility. Modi's new found aggression in TV interviews and rallies
confirms Congress' worst fears and hence the determination to stop Modi at all
costs. The regional chieftains are also in the grip of fear factor and join the anti-Modi forum if
the BJP is restricted to 200 seats.
(The author is National
Editor of Lokmat group
in Delhi)
