A Baffled USA

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Of all the aspirants for the prime minister's chair, it is certainly Narendra Modi who is uppermost on the radar of foreign observers—from both far and near. If he succeeds, there will certainly be a furious kerfuffle in the diplomatic quarters around the world. For the world sees him as a leader with a difference, not the type to accept the country's existing foreign policy paradigm as business as usual. In diplomacy, as in life, change means risk.

The mere possibility of his getting close to the stake has already set the cat among the pigeons of Chanakyapuri (the diplomatic enclave in the capital). Nancy Powell, the former US ambassador, was the first to be seen as storm signal as she took her retirement in a hurry and for no apparent reason, except that just before quitting her job she had a long meeting with Modi in which he was reportedly far from demure in expressing his feelings about America's attitude to India, including the ill treatment of Devyani Khobragade, an Indian envoy to the US. It is not known if Modi gave vent to his pent-up anger for being denied the American visa from as early as 2005, and for an impression shared by many in Delhi that there was a clique of anti-Modi Indian and American bureaucrats, of which Powell could be a member.

In a series of interviews given to the language TV channels (none to the news traders of the English TV channels) Modi initially dodged his policy towards the USA when asked if visa will be an issue. His reply to ANI was diplomatic, "A country does not work according to a preference of a certain individual. What happened with Modi does not affect the policies of the country. India's policy should be according to its traditions. It should be according to the legacy left behind by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. A country does not run if we keep on bickering over past sayings. It is run while looking at the future. Therefore whatever is in interest of India then that should be done." 

But in the midst of the applause at the India TV popular show "Aap Ki Adalat" which went unreported, Modi gave a clue of his mind. When asked if he would visit the USA if Americans give visa to him, Modi took a deep breath and articulated his views as under: I will say what I said in 2005 when the visa was first denied to me. I had said then that I will make my country so powerful that the Americans will make a beeline for VISA to India."

The two interviews were given one after the other. But left Modi watchers baffled. He gave no clue as to what he will do except doing business, trade, commerce and bargain for high technology which the USA has denied to India so far. There is a possibility that he may use the visa issue to bargain with the USA. Its not without significance that ambassadors and diplomatic representatives of 45 countries were present to hear Modi at his first political rally in Delhi after he was declared BJP's prime ministerial candidate last year. If this was unusual so was the manner in which the USA made Powell quit.
However, the Americans seemed typically flatfooted compared with their nimbler cousins across the Atlantic. British High Commissioner Sir James Bevan was among the first to meet Modi in 2012 with the pleasant tiding that Westminster had withdrawn its 10-year diplomatic boycott of the controversial Indian politician due to the 2002 Gujarat riots. On the other hand, Joao Cravinho, Sir James' EU counterpart, was effusive about Modi, calling him "a person of great prominence" and saying EU respected "the judicial verdict that gave him a clean chit" for the 2002 communal carnage in Gujarat.

Besides, it seems that there is little fact to support the fear, usually generated by Modi's local critics, that his alleged bull-headedness might spell trouble in India's immediate neighborhood. Pakistan, supposedly a country that defines its national identity by its enmity with India, however, is unusually quiet about the rise of Modi. Sartaz Aziz, Pakistan's acting Foreign Minister, has recently been quoted by The Telegraph of London that "the last time we had a breakthrough in our relationship (Indo-Pakistan) was…with a BJP government. Mr. Vajpayee was from the BJP". China is also maintaining an expectant silence. Modi's recent fulmination against China for border transgression at an election rally in Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims to be a part of Tibet, drew little retaliatory flak from Beijing, showing that the Chinese foreign ministry is mature enough to distinguish between electoral rhetoric and policy statements.

If China is at all staying alert about the outcome of the elections south of the Himalayas, and keeping a watchful eye on Modi, it is not because he is an unknown entity in China. He has visited the country thrice and Chinese businessmen are now a permanent fixture at the Vibrant Gujarat investment jamboree. However, China may be observing how the famously warm relations between Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and Modi plays out if Modi takes charge in Delhi. For China and Japan have territorial issues, not to speak of competing egos. It is reported that a new tranche of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) loan signed last month, which will fund extension of the third phase of Mass Rapid Transit service in the National Capital Region, when materialized, can mark the beginning of a long narrative of close Indo-Japan ties, if Modi and Abe are at the helms of the two governments.

Reportedly included in their to-do list are massive Japanese infrastructure investments along the proposed dedicated railway freight corridors linking the west coast with the east.

China is watchful but not apprehensive because it has understood that Modi is a strong leader, and when it wants to do business with another country, it is the primary requirement of that country’s leader to be strong.

Modi wants

Amricans to make

beeline for Indian visa

Some Western commentators have begun to put Modi in the league of strong world leaders, like Putin in Russia, or, to a lesser extent, China’s Xi Jinping. The world knows that if Modi becomes India’s prime minister, it will be through his determined effort. There is nothing accidental about it.

(The author is National Editor of

Lokmat group of newspapers

based in

Delhi)