BJP Norwester

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

What area elections? In fact what is representation politics all about? What important is the outcome of an election to the destiny of parties concerned? 

For those of us who grew up in the profession in the ‘Mandal’ era of politics, with so many caste and community groups, elections were always a hair-trigger experience as no one would know which group would have a change of mind at the last moment. So it was a bit like betting big-time in the so-called Z-category shares, though recent SBI reforms have somewhat reduced their deadly volatility.

BJP and its unrelenting efforts to stabilise India’s electoral outcomes have produced stupendous results. If there is an election in the mainline Hindi-speaking states (39% of population) there is no percentage in guessing who has the ace. Off-mainland, the non-BJP states are still nestling with their traditional protectors, like Bengal with the Trinamool Congress, Odisha under the wings of the Biju Janata Dal of Naveen Patnaik Tamil Nadu under the twin Dravidian parties by rotation or Andhra Pradesh under regional satrap Chandrababu Naidu and a couple of more smaller states.  The Congress is struggling to retain its last bastion in Karnataka. Elsewhere things are running riots.

In Uttarakhand, twice from Congress, former judge Vijay Bahuguna made it to the success pole in his state, yet fell short chief ministership in Dehra dun, a post that gracefully went to Trivendra Singh Rawat, an RSS old-timer. If at all, it proved that the parry’s ‘kremlin’, the troika of Amit Shah-Narendra Modi-RSS, would not deviate from their ideological fealty if possible. However, for Bahuguna, it was not unrelieved gloom as his sister, Rita Bahugna, once a determined spokesperson of the Congress is now minister in Yogi Adityanath ministry.  

Despite this strict choice of class and caste, BJP kept its window remarkably open way back the days of Nitin Gadkari’s presidentship. Courtesy Gadkari and later Rajnath Singh with the blessings of the RSS, nearly 100 of the 282 Lok Sabha MPs (in 2014) did not belong to the BJP, or for that matter, had little o do with the party and its ‘lotus’ culture. Birendra Singh and Rao Inderjit  Singh, both powerful ministers are iron men transported from Congress; one before the Lok Sabha polls and the other on the eve of Haryana Assembly elections. The BJP was always like a second fiddle to Devi Lal & Chautala and could hardly grew in the state. Therefore, the troika took a conscious decision to import talent lock, stock & barrel and give them ministerial berths too. Entry of Suresh Prabhu from Shiv Sena, a party that had little respect for his talent after his founder’s demise, and being inducted straightaway into the Railway Ministry. S.S. Ahluwalia, a ‘man for all seasons’, represent an elite induction hardly seen ever. The computer wiz kid of Rajiv Gandhi fell out with the Gandhis after he joined P V Narasimha Rao. He was the first major catch of the BJP as he knew inside out of the Congress and helped Atal-Advani team to nail the then ruling Congress. To a very large extent, it gave a party of Jai Shree Ram-chanting a degree of administrative gravitas it had toward the very end Vajpyee’s regime. 

And the elite flow is unchecked. In Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma was a prize catch that not only brought the party to win in Assam, a first for a saffron flag to unfurl on the Brahmaputra bank. The Biswa Sarma effect has paralysed the Congress in the entire north eastern region. It was the Congress which won most seats in Manipur yet it failed to get the support of just three MLAs to form government. The BJP proved its skill once again in garnering support from six Congress MLAs who have joined the party. The resigning MLAs must resign from the assembly and say they are happy to seek reselection under the BJP. But their confidence is not an issue.  Biswa Sarma is like a Simon Bolivar. He has announced that he’d soon grab the two states of Tripura and Meghalaya, one a surviving citadel of the CPI(M) and the other an old liege of the Congress when Purno Sangma was the liege lord. No one can tell what will happen in Tripura, but, those who have visited the state say northwester winds are blowing. It is very difficult to imagine the state’s ‘comrades’ not to wake up the roaring call of Amit Shah’s change. 

Goa’s is a classic example where Congress lost power because the leadership was unable to decide within the first 12 hours of results as to who should be its chief ministerial candidate. Digvijay Singh is being flogged for all the wrong reasons.

The country is in a state of political stupor, with old ideas and action calls becoming thoroughly ineffective and the people have shown little interest in more of the old stuff. The old fear about the BJP, that its a party of too much polarization, is somehow getting sublimated in a new fusion of acceptance. Something that Gadkari said is the ‘genius’ of his party that turned Ratnakar, the dacoit into the poet of poets. He said in Pune when confronted how could his party go on admitting all & sundry including criminals of the Congress, SP, BSP into the BJP, “If criminals enter the party, we lessen their faults and increase their merits…In our party, criminals change for good, in the same way in which Valya, a robber, turned into Valmiki…” The hunt for talent has not ended. The new troika of Modi-Shah-RSS is on hunt of hidden talent across the country. The BJP have taken 180 degree turn.

But there is definitely a point about hardcore public life changing people’s behaviour, something that is hard to find in a like Congress with total control clamped on independent thinking. 

Opposition deserves Modi's thanks

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetization drive in November last year, he was being written off by most opposition leaders, and their buddies in the media. Even Saamna, the Shiv Sena magazine, called demonetization an “atom bomb” and Uddhav Thackeray said “(after note-bandi) it was BJP-bandi as well”. But in the ensuing municipal elections in Maharashtra, the BJP won eight out of ten councils and increased its tally in Mumbai by 264%  to 82 seats. It shocked all by its performance in Odisha, Gujrat and elsewhere. That established the basic truth that demonetization, however painful to the common man, was actually appreciated for some reason that has not been analysed; be it for being seen as just deserts for the bribe-taking rich.

The opposition’s reading of the tea leaves of politics was again in gross error in Uttar Pradesh. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Samjawadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, both in their 40’s, swayed by a hi-flier election consultant, formed a pre-poll alliance even though Yadav’s SP had been born in the early 90’s as an offshoot of the Janata Dal, the rainbow coalition of caste and creed that swore to remove the Congress from power. Gandhi and Yadav were walking on air after the coalition. After the results were out, the SP and Congress polled 21 and 7 per cent votes respectively, and the BSP, which the duo thought was of no consequence, polled 22 per cent. But the BJP and its local allies grabbed 41 per cent votes and 312 of the 403 (77.41%) seats. The Gandhi-Yadav pair were gung-ho about their chances all along, thinking of Modi as being out on a limb after the demonetization ‘fiasco’. So another upset since David beat Goliath.  What is the problem with the opposition? Why is it repeatedly failing to read the message that the electorate is repeatedly giving out?

It is evident that the opposition is distinctly worried about its prospects in the 2019 general elections. The chances of Modi’s return has suddenly entered, from an equal-odds zone, into an area of fair possibility. If that happens, the entire opposition leadership will go through an existential dilemma, with decades-old, if not centurion, families that may be forced to bid adieu from the stage of power. What is more important, a 2019 defeat will compel the anti-BJP political groupings to hit on a new idea of India, something quite different from what Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru and B. R. Ambedkar had foisted on the nation after Independence, and what BJP, given a chance, will inarguably replace by an idea of its own. And if it wins the 2019 general election, its second consecutive conquest, the following five years cannot but rewrite its markers as a nation. Many things may change beyond recognition. India may move faster towards becoming a Hindu nation, like Israel is Jewish. The BJP’s historic victory in UP and installation of Yogi Adityanath at the bidding of the RSS at an eleventh hour shows the speed with which the so-called “secular” slate will be re-written. The saffron-clad Yogi continues to make waves and TV channels have gone berserk painting him as new messiah on the horizon. The entire RSS-BJP machinery is ensuring that UP becomes the shining example of the success of its ideology so that 2019 can be repeated with ease.

Gone are the days of the appeasement of minorities; nursed by so-called secular parties since Independence in one form or the other. It was not without reason that the BJP there wasn’t a single Muslim BJP candidate in Uttar Pradesh. The Muslims population as high as 18 per cent made hardly any impact on the electoral outcome in the state. A clamour for beef ban in the entire country is already gaining ground and states after states are levying cow cess for their welfare. If the Muslims don’t yield on Ram Temple, there are other ways & means to make them see reason. The Beef ban, Triple Talaq, war against conversions etc has made the Muslims worried and they have been exerting pressure on the “secular” parties to come together before more damage is done. It is no wonder that Congress leaders with a sophisticated sense of history, like Shashi Tharoor, who has recently admitted that the traditional Indian definition of secularism has not “worked”, are back to the drawing board to work on the Idea of India 2.0.

Whatever it transpires to be, the BJP’s own “idea” will differ from it vastly on two grounds. First, its unceasing hostility to Muslims has given it an opportunity to cobble together an overarching alliance of victimhood of Hindus across all castes. Besides, the electoral consolidation it has achieved can be the bell ringer for all kinds of reforms that India, so far administered very loosely, must carry out if it wants to be counted even as a middling nation in a few decades. Modi obviously sees his goals clearly. A uniform indirect tax policy (GST), subsidy reduction, making the public distribution system leak-proof—all these are bold reforming steps towards achieving inclusiveness.

Modi’s present home run in elections, and its future course, is therefore the result of complex cross currents of history—of a creeping ‘Indianness’ overpowering regional pulls and pushes—and the opposition will act stupidly again if it bets too high on Modi’s “mistakes” without working out its own strategy. But, barring a few intellectuals, the opposition ranks are poor on ideas. Instead, they keep hoping for a better tomorrow without doing anything. As the name of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar began circulating as the possible face of the opposition in 2019, Laloo Prasad, his ‘frenemy’, was sullen; he said he’d go on a “tour” of the country first. And C. P. Joshi, Congress general secretary known to be his vice president’s eyes and ears, claimed that, by 2018, “under Rahul Gandhi”, “we pose formidable challenges” to Modi. If the opposition refuses to wake up, the Prime Minister may send them ‘thank you’ cards in advance.