BJP's Maharashtra Master stroke!
The BJP high command is closely watching the statements being made publicly by the three partners of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) on sharing of Lok Sabha seats. It was Sharad Pawar who initiated the discussion at a close-door meeting of the Shiv Sena, Congress & NCP and urged the partners to decide on the seat-sharing formula in earnest. But even before any ground work could be done, senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut declared that his party will contest at least 19 out of 48 seats it had won in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Obviously, other partners were upset as Shiv Sena had contested the 2019 polls in alliance with the BJP and the NDA had won 41 seats leaving four for the NCP and one to Congress. The AIMIM won one Lok Sabha seat while an Independent (Navneet Ram) walked away with Amaravati win.
Sensing that the MVA partners will find it almost impossible to resolve an amicable seat sharing formula, the BJP high command is toying with the idea of holding simultaneous polls for the Lok Sabha and Assembly in May 2024 itself. The state BJP leadership has also conveyed to the high command that this move will put the MVA on the mat and shatter unity among them on sharing of Assembly seats. The Assembly polls are due in October 2024 and advancing it by six months may give BJP a quantum jump. The Karnataka win has boosted the morale of the Congress in Maharashtra and its leaders will not back down. The BJP leadership, on the other hand, is planning to take full advantage of the lifeline given to the NDA government by the Supreme Court. The BJP is sending out signals to MVA leaders to join the BJP.
Yogi, Delhi Gulf raising eyebrows
The Karnataka Assembly polls have further widening the gulf between the UP Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath and some of the ruling party functionaries. Yogi being BJP's star campaigner was to address 35 rallies and roadshows during the short campaign period and indicated two sets of dates to the central party office, May 3-4 and May 7-10, for campaigning. While PM Modi was a super star campaigner with 19 rallies and 14 events, Union Home Minister Amit Shah addressed 23 rallies etc followed by Assam CM Hemant Biswa Sarma with 11 and Yogi with just nine. Somewhere during the campaigning, Yogi realized that party managers had selected toughest seats which the BJP had never won. Considering the massive anti-incumbency against the BJP government, the party should have selected those seats which were winnable with a slight push. Therefore, he slowed down his visits to Karnataka and ended up with just nine rallies instead of scheduled 35 rallies. Yogi decided to focus on the local bodies elections in his state and gifted all urban local body polls in UP to the BJP, never witnessed before. Even as the Congress celebrated the BJP’s defeat in Karnataka, the ruling party latched on to the UP's historic win. Modi tweeted to congratulate Yogi on the big win. But many in Delhi blamed Yogi saying the killing of the gangster and politician, Atiq Ahmed in a shootout led to the party losing backward castes among Pasmanda Muslims.
BJP battling with its Satraps too
The BJP's humiliating defeat in Karnataka has brought big smiles on the faces of many regional Satraps who were cooling their heels. With the next Assembly polls due in five states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh later this year, these strong state leaders in wilderness for a long time, are hopeful of rehabilitation. It is no secret that the party high command doesn't like former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia. She was neither made state BJP chief and not the Leader of the Opposition in Assembly. The same goes for Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh who ruled the state for three terms. The BJP leadership tried many combinations but could not succeed. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP leadership is looking to replace Shivraj Singh Chouhan who may fail to win the state as was the case in 2018. But there is no other strong face who can turn an election. The BJP's Trimurti (Modi-Shah-Nadda) is likely to take a call on the leadership issue in these states in June-July.
Faulty Drafting, Kejri smiling
The Modi Government's National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Ordinance, 2023, was aimed at nullifying the ruling by a Constitution bench of the Supreme Court that handed over the reins of “services” to the Kejriwal Government. The newly created Authority will have the power to recommend the transfer and posting of all Group A officers and officers of DANICS serving in Delhi. Since any review or appeal by either side will have to wait until the SC re-opens in July, no immediate remedy may be available to the Kejriwal government. Secondly, the AAP may find it difficult to muster a majority in Rajya Sabha to get the bill defeated.
However, legal experts say that the Ordinance was drafted in a great hurry and no proper vetting was done. Reason: Under the Ordinance, the authority will be chaired by the Delhi Chief Minister and will include the Chief Secretary and the Principal Secretary, Home, and “all matters required to be decided by the authority shall be decided by majority of votes of the members present and voting.” Legal luminaries wonder how come the two bureaucrats can be at par with the democratically elected Chief Minister. In any case, the bureaucrats will have a majority. This clause will not be able to stand scrutiny of the law. The Ordinance is bad in law as CM cannot be equated with Chief Secretary and Home Secretary.
