Amit Shah led GoM clears sale of Air India

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Amit Shah led GoM clears sale of Air India

Bids invited, March 17 deadline 

Hindujas, TATAs keen to enter aviation sector

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 27

With the government finally coming out with a public advertisement for sale of 100% equity and management control of Air India today, all eyes are set on prospective buyers. The last date of submission of Expression of Interest (EoI) is March 17, 2020.

Informally, the Tatas, Hindujas, IndiGo, SpiceJet and a few private equity firms including some foreign companies have shown interest in buying Air India.

The 100% sale of Air India also includes its 100% owned subsidiary Air India Express Limited and 50% AI SATS Airport Private Limited. A private company, Ernest & Young, has been appointed sole transaction adviser for the deal. The Modi government had invited the EoI in 2018. But at that time, the government wanted to sell only 76% stake. Secondly, the financial liability was also huge. Thus, no one turned up. 

Later, the PM appointed Union Home Minister Amit Shah as head of the Group of Minister for AI's sale, lock,stock & barrel. The  Amit Shah led committee decided to off-load 100% equity with a rider that AI's control will remain with an Indian entity, limiting the scope of any foreign bidders interested in the asset to 49%.The Indian partner will have to hold 51% equity. It also decided that the buyer will be liable to pay the debt relating to the aircraft AI has in its fleet and not others.

This certainly made it a lucrative offer for any bidder. The aircraft debt is roughly $3.26 billion. The government offered to transfer remaining debt into a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) which the buyer won't have to pay.

Air India has a fleet of 125 aircraft and its domestic market share is 11.9 per cent as on December, 2019. A successful bidder would win control of the airline's 4,400 domestic landing and parking slots and 1,800 international slots at Indian airports, as well as 900 slots at airports overseas.

Industry experts are keeping their fingers crossed as the overall environment is not positive in the economy despite the Modi government taking a series of steps.

The Modi government has made it clear that it won't lend further financial support to AI and may shut down if the second disinvestment bid fails. It is incurring a daily loss of Rs 20-25 crore. 

Amit Shah takes big risk in Delhi polls battle

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Amit Shah takes big risk in Delhi polls battle

Fields news comers, banks on Modi charisma

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 24

The PM is likely to address a series of rallies in the Delhi Assembly polls beginning February 1 after the presentation of the Union Budget in the Lok Sabha.

If sources are to be believed, the PM will address 5-6 rallies in February depending upon the mood and response of the people. A massive mobilisation is on to launch full onslaught against the Kejriwal government in the Capital and grab power after a drought of 20 years.

The top BJP leadership decided to bank on the Prime Minister's charisma and popularity in the Assembly polls rather than projecting anyone for the post of the Chief Minister. So much so that the BJP leadership abandoned its plan to field Manoj Tiwari, Gautam Gambhir, Meenakshi Lekhi, Vijay Goel and a couple of other well known sitting MPs. The leadership felt that if the election is to be fought in the name of Modi, then why make sitting MPs to contest for the Assembly.

As if this was not enough, the party picked up several fresh faces to fight the AAP and the Congress. It fielded a completely newcomer and unknown Sunil Yadav against Arvind Kejriwal to show to the seniors that they are no more needed for the local polls.

In fact, Vijay Jolly, Aarti Mehra, Ajay Malhotra, son of former Delhi Chief Metropolitan counciller Vijay Kumar Malhotra, Harish Khurana, son of Madanlal Khurana's son, Sudhanshu Mittal were told to campaign rather than contest.

While acknowledging that the party faces an uphill battle, the leadership also feels that Modi's campaign wil, tilt the balance in favour of the BJP. The “momentum is in party’s favour”, claimed a senior functionary saying saying the agitation by the Muslim women at Shaheen Bagh against the CAA has galvanized the BJP workers and its sympathizers.

The BJP leadership is also of the view that a division on the communal lines is being tested in Delhi where the party has been out of power for past 20 years. The party's campaign command and ticket distribution command has been taken by the Union Home Minister, Amit Shah into his own hands. In fact, it is Amit Shah who held a rare road show yesterday in the Capital for the Assembly poll and devoted more than four hours campaigning.

With a bold Union Budget in the offing coupled with a series of welfare scheme launched, Modi-Shah team will be able to tilt the balance in BJP's favour.

PM burning midnight oil on Budget

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

special report

PM burning midnight oil on Budget

Holding one-to-one meetings with Industry Honchos and all

PM's “Bold Budget” in the making 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 20

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is burning midnight oil and closely monitoring every key proposal in the making of the Union Budget to be presented on February 1. The grapevine has it that the Prime Minister is summoning every key secretary in the Finance Ministry and discussing in detail impact of proposals to be incorporated in the Budget. He has met secretaries of other key ministries personally to

look into every nitty-gritty.

The Prime Minister is aware of the fact that the coming Budget is being looked upon by various sector with tremendous hope in the wake of slow-down in the economy and job losses. Every sector is looking up to the Prime Minister in the Budget. Though the Prime Minister deployed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to address issues relating to various sectors and she tried her best. But somehow, she failed to infuse confidence and the Prime Minister took the command in his own hands.

If he met the top industrialists in a group ten days ago without the aide and assistance of Nirmala Sitharam, he is reported to have held one-to-one meetings with top honchos to understand what exactly should be done to cheer up the sentiments. Since the fundamentals of the economy are fine, the Prime Minister wants specific ideas and steps to be taken.

The PM also met economists collectively at the NITI Aayog meeting and individually also many of them. He had wide-ranging consultations with other stake holders; be it real estate, NBFCs, infrastructure and others.

He held a series of meetings with the Council of Ministers .

It is clear that Modi wants to make his “Make in India” program a grand success and revive the Indian industrial sector in a big way by curtailing imports on more than 200 items. His focus is not only sin goods but other bulk items which are being dumped in Indian bazars.

In order to infuse confidence in the Corporate sector, he has directed the Corporate Affairs Ministry headed by Nirmala Sitharaman to de-criminalized as much as 50% such clauses. The government had imposed Long Term Capital Gains (LTCG) tax in last year's budget. Now this may be tweaked to bring in at par with global practices. There is demand that Dividend Distribution Tax be scrapped which is currently at 20.56% or reduce it.The personal Income-Tax rate may be cut to some extent to boost the purchasing power.

The PM's watchful eye forced the Nirmala Sitharaman ministry to withdraw the ITR forms she had issued causing serious anxiety among the tax payers. The PM wants to punish some over-jealous officers in the revenue department. But now it will be after the Budget session.

By all accounts, it will be the PM's “Bold Budget” to be read by the FM.

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Nadda to fill 2 vacancies in Parliamentary Board

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

special report

Nadda to fill 2 vacancies in Parliamentary Board

RACE begins between Nirmala & Irani 

Piyush Goyal, Pradhan, Javadekar in the reckoning too

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 22

With Jagat Prakash Nadda taking over as the President of the BJP, intense speculation has begun for two coveted posts in the party's Parliamentary Board.

All eyes are set on two women leaders – Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Women & Child Development Minister Smriti Irani – as to who will make the cut in the powerful decision making body of the party. Two vacancies have been caused due to the untimely demise of Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj last year. Currently, the board has eight members as Amit Shah did not fill these two vacancies when he headed the party. However, B L Santosh was inducted into the board as general secretary incharge of the organisation in place of Ram Lal last year. There are  eight members in the board as of now and these vacancies are be filled shortly. It is expected that one vacancy caused by the demise of Sushma Swaraj will be filled by a woman leader.

Smriti Irani is claiming her right to be member of the Parliamentary Board as she trounced stalwart like Rahul Gandhi in Amethi and has been a star campaigner of the party. But she has been surrounded with controversies as well. The supporters of Nirmala Sitharaman say her performance as BJP leader had been outstanding and got one promotion after the other due to her performance and integrity. There is also speculation that Vijaya Rahatkar, president Mahila Morcha who is member of the Central Election Committee be brought to the board and a new woman member be sent to the CEC.

There are many in the queue for the seat that fell vacant due to the death of Arun Jaitley. Among them, the names of Railways & Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, Petroleum & Steel Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, I&B and Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar are being mentioned. Another suggestion is that some one from the North East or West Bengal be inducted in the board.

J P Nadda will take a call on filling these vacancies once the process of organisational polls is completed within the next 15 days and parliament's Budget session recess in February.

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Dilemma grips BJP on fielding sitting LS MPs

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Dilemma grips BJP on fielding sitting LS MPs

Searching formidable candidate against Kejriwal

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 18

The BJP leadership is in a serious dilemma whether to field some sitting Members of the Lok Sabha for the Delhi Assembly to take on the Aam Aadmi Party. Earlier it was toying with the idea of fielding all the seven sitting Lok Sabha Sabha MPs including Union Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan for the Delhi Assembly seats. This thinking evolved as many felt that the party should put its best foot forward. But suddenly the party developed cold feet and now it is contemplating to field only three Lok Sabha MPs in the Delhi Assembly battle.

According to highly placed sources, Dr Manoj Tiwari, president of the Delhi BJP, Parvesh Varma, son of former Delhi Chief Minister Sahib Singh Varma and Ramesh Biduri are keen to contest for the Assembly polls and conveyed their desire to the party high command accordingly. Vijay Goel, former Union Minister and ex-president of the Delhi BJP and sitting Rajya Sabha MP, is also determined to contest for the Assembly polls. In any case, his Rajya Sabha term is expiring from Rajasthan in April and its time, he returns to the local Delhi politics.

Earlier these leaders wanted them to be projected as chief ministerial face of the party. When the party told them that this can't be accepted, they still want to contest for the Assembly to take on the AAP.

The party is also looking for a candidate who can be pitted against Arvind Kejriwal from the New Delhi constituency. Meenakshi Lekhi, two times Lok Sabha MP from New Delhi constituency was sounded to contest against Kejriwal. But she was not inclined though if ordered will obey.

The party has announced the names of 57 candidates so far and nine more are yet to be announced. Four seats have been allocated to its ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). The BJP has three MLAs in the Delhi Assembly and the Modi-Amit Shah team wants to snatch the Assembly after loosing the battle for past 22 years.

After CAA, battle begins on NPR now

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

After CAA, battle begins on NPR now

Maharashtra keeping fingers crossed   

States can delay NPR, not defy

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 16

A fresh row has emerged between the Centre and a few states on implementing National Population Register (NPR) exercise to begin on April 1 this year. Though the Centre is working hard to calm down protests on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) by not notifying rules, some states have toughened their stance against the NPR now.

While West Bengal and Kerala have officially written to the Centre to put the NPR on hold, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Pudduchery & Ladakh (UT s) have not notified dates for conducting it NPR in their respective territories.

Three states — Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan — devised a new strategy by asking the Central government if the NPR data could be shared with them. These states said this would to help in ‘identifying genuine beneficiaries’ for their welfare schemes. Since the Centre has not responded positively, they are sitting pretty as well. Punjab said it would take a call only after the state Assembly deliberates on it. The NPR exercise has already been initiated in Odisha with the state government clearing all the parameters laid down in the NPR act.

The Centre is not in a hurry to press the states as they had already notified NPR implementation last July. These have developed cold feet due to one reason or the other. It would be interesting to mention that the NDA government revived the NPR in 2015 after the UPA stopped it midway in 2010 due to the launching of Aadhaar. The NDA created an electronic data base of 119 crores people in 2015-16 listing usual residents who provided Aadhaar, Voter ID card, ration cards and other details if they possessed the same. There may be some controversy whether providing details is mandatory or not. But the NPR manual of 2020-21 clearly says that this exercise is mandatory and time bound and those willfully defying could be prosecuted.

However, in this case, the state governments have developed cold feet which can lead to the delay.

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20-Ministers to travel across J&K

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

20-Ministers to travel across J&K   

PM Modi's Massive Public Out-reach program rolled out

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 15

The Modi Establishment has now decided to launch a massive political offensive in Jammu & Kashmir almost six months after abrogating Article 370.

If plans being given final shape, a battery of Union Ministers will be deputed to travel across the Union Territory to interact with the people.

The massive public outreach exercise will involve ministers in the second line of command in the government and propagate the welfare policies and programs implemented by the Centre.

In fact, the exercise is aimed at prodding the people to participate in the public programs and involve them in these activities. This will be first time that a battery of central ministers will undertake low-key but effective educative programs. “This is a major PR exercise finalised by the Prime Minister,” said a minister who didn't want to be quoted.

The state government has already been told about the impending visit of the ministers and security forces alerted to take appropriate action to make the programs successful. The week-long exercise will involve the visit of Minister of State for Home G Krishan Reddy, Smriti Irani, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Anurag Thakur Jitendra Singh and Piyush Goyal and several others.

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Delhi Police creates SSG for the Gandhis,

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

special report

Delhi Police creates SSG for the Gandhis,

CRPF protects 50 plus VIPs now

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 14

The Delhi Police is understood to have created a special wing nick-named as “SSG” for the protection & security of the members of the Gandhi family. If sources are to be believed, the SSG has been created under an officer of the Assistant Commissioner of Police (ACP) rank who will coordinate with the CRPF security wing. The Special Security Group (SSG) has effectively replaced the Special Protection Group (SPG) which used to provide security cover to members of the Gandhi family and also to the former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.

The new arrangement has finally taken shape with the SSG incharge of the security in close coordination with the VIP security wing of the CRPF. The CRPF will provide the immediate security cover to the Gandhis and Priyanka Vadra and her children and the Delhi Police will give peripherial security cover. The CRPF's Inspector General (Intelligence and VIP security) P K Singh, has devised a very stringent security protocols not only for the members of the Gandhi family but also other high-profile VIPs figuring in the list of protectees.

In fact, most of the facilities including the vehicles and technical equipment etc are being provided to the CRPF's VIP security wing which were with the SPG. The CRPF guards more than 60 VIPs including the Gandhis across the country with the aid and assistance of local police. There are 15 in the Z+ category, 21 under Z and remaining in various other categories. It has communicated fresh instructions for the security of these VIPs to all the states and Union Territories so they can provide the necessary intelligence and police support when the VIPs visit them.

The sources said the the Union Home Ministry continues to view security threat to the Gandhis “very high” and chalked out improved protocol. The Gandhis’ security would continue to include an Advance Security Liaison (ASL) and Special Armoured Vehicles (SAV) — hallmarks of SPG cover. Now that the National Security Guards (NSG) is being convetred completely into a Counter terrorist operations, it will no more look after personal security cover for any indivisual in the country. All Black-cat commandos have been withdrawn from the secyurity duties.

In fact, the Gandhis will get the same security set up provided to Union Home Minister Amit Shah. It may be mentioned that the threat to the life of Amit Shah has gone up in the recent past particularly after the abrogation of Article 370.

Secondly, the CRPF's VIP security will be given the same training which is being provided to the SPG personnel. On November 8, the Centre had withdrawn the Gandhis’ SPG cover saying that the force was created to protect the sitting PM & his family.

Nadda's auspicious day sooner than expected !

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Nadda's auspicious day sooner than expected ! 

Amit Shah keen to quit party post before Delhi polls

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 13

The Capital is agog with reports that the working president J P Nadda may take over the reins as full president of the party very soon. Insiders say that a special session of the National Council of the BJP may be held either within the next ten days or immediately after the Delhi Assembly polls. But BJP president and Union Home Minister Amit Shah has impressed upon the party leaders that he would like to give up the party post to focus fully on the government affairs.

Now that the inauspicious period of “Khad Mas” (One month period) is over on the Makar Sankranti tomorrow, the process may be expedited. Though the process of completing states' organisational polls is not over yet, it is felt that the wait should not be prolonged.

The prolonged uncertainty in the party's leadership is giving birth to all kinds of speculations in the media and the party. Now that Nadda has worked closely with Amit Shah for nearly seven months, its time, he should be inducted as soon as possible. If inducted within the next ten days, Nadda will face an uphill task dislodged Arvind Kejriwal's government in Delhi. The hopes of the BJP rest on the revival of the Congress party which alone can weaken the AAP.

Though the time is short, Nadda has the capability to woo the old guards in his own affable style and sort out factionalism in the national capital within the party leaders. Seconly, he is an alliance man and would not have allowed All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) to part ways in Jharkhand. J P Nadda was designated working president of the BJP in June last year and Amit Shah continued into the post for one reason or the other for such a long time dispensing with the principle of One-Man One-Post.

A final decision will be known in the next couple of days.

Ends 

Government wants to de-escalate JNU tension

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Government wants to de-escalate JNU tension

HRD Minister under scanner for poor handling

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 10

The Modi government wants the situation at the JNU is de-escalated as soon as possible. The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi is very upset with the way situation has taken an ugly turn and failure of the concerned authorities to handle it. It was only after the PM's displeasure that the HRD ministry swung into action and summoned the Vice Chancellor M Jagdeesh Kumar and gave a dressing down. He was told point by point how he failed to take action and visualise the situation developing at the JNU campus and handle it.

He was told to mend fences and also issue appropriate orders relating to hike in the fee structures. It now transpires that the VC may be allowed to hike the hostel room rent charges, the other hikes are being put on the hold.

The BJP, on its part, has also told the students close to its ideology that they should not hold counter demonstrations against the protesting Left wing students. This will lead to further confrontation. The BJP leadership does not approve the way the ABVP supported elements resorted to violence in retaliation of the Left wing students violent conduct earlier. It is felt that formal complaints should have been lodged with the Police and the University administration rather taking the law into their own hands.

The tweet by veteran party leader Dr Murli Manohar Joshi yesterday demanding the removal of the JNU VC may not rattled the party. But Dr Joshi echoed the sentiments of the majority of party leaders that the current VC has failed to run the administration efficiently particularly in an institution which has been controlled by the Left since its inception. It required a very mature handling to control such elements.

The party leadership is also unhappy as the focus has shifted to JNU agitation from the CAA protests. The BJP wanted the battle to be between the nationalists and anti-nationalists on the CAA. But the JNU incidents has shifted the focus which is not to be liking of the high command.

This has also puts the HRD Minister Ramesh Pokhriyal “Nishank” in a poor light. The series of meetings of the JNU VC with the HRD ministry in recent past indicates the Minister's poor handling of a Central university directly under his nose.

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Govt. Disinvestment plan goes for a toss

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Govt. Disinvestment plan goes for a toss

BPCL, Air India waiting for buyers

Massive short-fall in revenue collections

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 7

The divestment plans of the Modi government has taken a big hit this fiscal as plans to earn more than Rs one lakh crores by selling a few Navratna PSUs have taken a big hit.

A worried Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now prodding the captains of the industry personally to invest after the major cut in corporate taxes and series of measures taken by his government. In fact, the Modi government could raise only

Rs 17,364 crore through divestment during 2019-20 so far. The plans to sell BPCL, Concor, Air India and several others have not yielded any results.

The luck-luster response even from the foreign investors to buy businesses has made the Modi government to re-work modalities to raise hundreds of thousands of crores needed to fill the government coffers as revenues are dwindling. The GST collections are down by as much as Rs 1.18 lakh crores during 2019-20 and direct tax collections are far below the estimated growth. The short-fall in net revenue collection could be as high as Rs 2.50 lakh crores if divestment targets are not met.

The desperate government is now wanting to sell the BPCL for a song. Though the real value of the BPCL is more than Rs 1.50 lakh crores, it is willing to off-load it for Rs 75000 crores only. The government is now spending less on projects and social welfare schemes as a measure to keep the fiscal deficit in check. The big-bang VRS plan for the BSNL employees to dole out Rs 69000 crores is also being delayed as there is no money in the kitty. The down-fall in the financial markets including the sensex had caused anxiety in the government.

In the global uncertain conditions and growing social unrest in India has vitiated the investment climate. The foreign funds believe in making quick money in the share market and walk away rather than put up long term investment in plants. It is in this background that the government is unlikely to complete the strategic sale of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), Container Corporation of India (Concor), and Air India by March-end.

The Prime Minister's meeting with the industrialists yesterday has not yielded expected results. The PM candidly asked them to give frank suggestions to boost the economy rather than praising him and economy. They told him in one voice that consumer sentiment required a boost.

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New Year season brings Marathon Ministerial meetings

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

New Year season brings Marathon Ministerial meetings

Modi to hols several conclaves of Council of Ministers

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 6

After holding nine-hour marathon meeting with his council of ministers on Saturday last, the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi has decided to hold sectorial meetings of the his council during the next two weeks. All the ministers have been advised to stay put during these meetings and curtail their visits outside the Capital barring unforeseen reasons.

If sources are to be believed, the Council of Ministers comprising of 56 ministers have been asked to be present during the series of such meetings beginning tomorrow. PM Modi wants to involve not only Cabinet ministers numbering 23, he also wants all nine Ministers of State (Independent Charge) and 24 Ministers of State with his plan of action for the next five years. Modi wants ministries of infrastructure, agriculture and rural development sectors to make presentations to apprise all the ministerial colleagues of the vision for the next five years and involve them.

While the Saturday's nine hour meeting was aimed at Civil Aviation, Urban development, railways, agriculture and Jal Shakti ministries, the next meetings will focus on specific sectors and plans. According to sources, the second meeting of the Council of Ministers will be held tomorrow and then day after. The Council of Ministers used to meet twice a year, at least that had been the pattern during Modi's first stint between 2014-19. But now the PM wants to involve the entire council frequently. This may be five-year sector-wise vision documents concerning a group of ministries with all the secretaries in toe.

Modi wants that his ministerial colleagues must have detailed understanding of issues which are not related to their ministries. This will create a synergy within the government but also bring cohesiveness of functioning. Modi plans to hold similar sessions for the members of parliament in the weeks to come so that they are also aware of complexities of the functioning and importance of development. The focus of the Saturday meeting was infra and agriculture sectors.

Obviously, the Prime Minister's focus is on development and telling the countrymen of his achievements in 2024 Lok Sabha polls as promised. Of course, there have been several light-hearted moments and stray comments. But politics per se was not discussed including the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

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Amit Shah burning midnight oil Confrontation between Centre-states building on CAA

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Amit Shah burning midnight oil

Confrontation between Centre-states building on CAA

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 4

Worried over continued protests over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in parts of the country, the BJP leadership is working on multiple fronts to isolate these protesters.

If the party leadership has decided to launch a countrywide blitz to derail these protests, the Modi government has launched a diplomatic offensive globally to counter the propaganda in this regard.

What has worried the government more is that protesters have changed their strategy and going the way shown by protesters in Assam. These protesters are now completely peaceful, siting on dharna, offering flowers to the policement surrounding them. The protesters from the minority community are even carrying National Flag in their hands and chanting Jana Gana Mana. Barring the initial week of violent protests, the protests in Delhi and elsewhere are peaceful. Nearly eleven states ruled by the non-NDA parties are witnessing massive protests and even states of North East are part of it.

Though BJP chief Amit Shah has been making strong statements in support of the CAA, the ministry of Home Affairs has not issued rules pertaining to the amended act. Perhaps, the government is waiting for the supreme court to open after the winter break and make some initial obervations when the hearing begins.

The Ministry doesn't want to precipitate the issue and busy finding a solution to the tricky situation arising in Assam where the BJP has promised to protect the Assamese culture and identity.

The BJP leadership's brainstorming two days ago was part of this exercise. It discussed the consequences of the resolution passed by the Kerala Assembly against the implementation of the CAA. Though the Home Ministry termed it unconstitutional and beyond the powers of the state, the trend is worrying. Pressure is mounting on the Assam government to pass such a resolution and tell the Centre that CAA in its present form can't be accepted.

Meanwhile, the MHA has told the states informally that if they do not implement CAA and NPR beginning April, the officers may be liable to be prosecuted. If the state gpovernments don't cooperate, it will tantamount to breakdown of the constitutional machinery and may lead to dismissal of the government itself. The MHA has also made it clear that states have no role in it and they need not be consulted either.

The states of Kerala, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Punjab and Maharashtra have declared that they would not implement CAA.

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Suspense over Change of Guards in BJP continues

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Suspense over Change of Guards in BJP continues

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 2

Intense speculation is on in the BJP over the exact date of take over of J P Nadda as the full time president of the BJP.

While a section believe that the much-awaited change of guards may take place after the Makar Sankranti in January, others say that the process of completing states' organisational polls is not over yet. The process of organisational polls in states is likely to be completed sometime in January and J P Nadda may be handed over the reins anytime thereafter.

J P Nadda was designated working president of the BJP in June last year. It was stated then that Union Home Minister Amit Shah will demit the party post keeping in mind the “one man one post” principle doggedly followed by the BJP. But Amit Shah continued into the post in order to familiarise Nadda with the organisational structure.

In the meantime, it was felt by the party that let Amit Shah continue in the post and directly monitor the Assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. Somehow, the results were a serious set back to his winning streak and now he is keen to quit before the Delhi Assembly polls due in the first week of February.

However, no decision has been taken whether Amit Shah will hang his boots as party president before the Delhi Assembly polls or prior to the polls itself. He has already constituted a team of three ministers- Prakash Javadekar, Hardeep Singh Puri and Nityanand Rai- to oversee Delhi polls. The notification is likely to be issued anytime now for the Delhi polls. But no one is giving any numbers to the BJP in Delhi. Shah may be keen to demit the office but Nadda doesn't want to begin his inninings in office with a poor note. Therefore, it is likely that he may take over some time in mid-February when the Parliament will go into a recess after the Budget presentation and results of Delhi polls will be out.

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Why Amit Shah pushed for CAA in Winter session?

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Why Amit Shah pushed for CAA in Winter session?

An Inside story of how BJP, Modi Govt. worked overtime

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Jan. 1

The mystery is unfolding as to why Union Home Minister Amit Shah pushed for the passage of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) at the fag end of the Winter session of Parliament.

The entire 2019 had been highly successful and a historic year for the party and the government. After winning LS polls with a massive mandate, the government passed the long pending Triple Talaq Bill in Parliament on July 31 during the Monsoon session. Immediately came the historic moment when Amit Shah succeeded in abrogating Article 370 on August 5 and kept the Valley peaceful throughout. The world also accepted the reality. As if this was not enough, the Ram Temple unanimous verdict from the Supreme Court also came on November 9 which solved the century old dispute.

But it seems Amit Shah became ambitious and wanted long pending CAA bill be passed in 2019 itself.

The underlining political gain of the move was to win the Assembly polls in West Bengal due in 2021. Of the 11 crores estimated population and around 7 crores voters, the Home ministry's estimate of illegal immigrants was one crores in West Bengal. Of these 1 crore illegal immigrants, the BJP's assessment is that nearly 25-30 lakhs belong to non-Muslim religions. The passage of the CAA will make them eligible voters while the 70 lakh illegal Muslims would be denied these benefits.

It was a politically very ambitious target and the BJP leadership was elated with the move when Amit Shah proposed it. The CAA, if implemented, would impoact at least 95 Assembly seats in state.

The abandoned NRC exercise in Assam had revealed that there were 18 lakhs illegal residents in Assam alone. Therefore, the number of such immigrants in WB would be more than one crores. It is in this background that the party and the government wanted the CAA's passage as the Opposition was disintegrated and non-NDA parties were falling in line to support the BJP.

For Amit Shah, winning West Bengal is a dream bigger than Tripura. He is nowadays, even taking lessons in Bengali to address the people of Bengal during the campaign for the 2021 Assembly elections in their own language. The attempt is to counter the narrative that the BJP is a Hindi heartland party.

But the massive street protests has dampened the spirit and everything is now on hold. This was never envisaged.

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