by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
Pollsters predict NDA win
big losses for BJP, Congress may double its tally
BJP+Sena may lose seats in Maharashtra
Harish Gupta
New Delhi, April 9
More than two dozen opinion polls conducted across the country by leading news channels have said that the BJP will emerge as a single largest party and NDA will get anywhere between 261-310 Lok Sabha seats.
Barring TV9-C Voter, Zee24-Taas and ABP News, all other channels and pollsters havr predicted a clear majority for the NDA. In all 25 poll surveys have been conducted between January to April 8 this year and different yardsticks have been applied by different news channels.
No doubt, most pollsters have shown that BJP's own seat share will fall from 282 which it won in 2014. But they say these surveys were done in March and developments during the on-going seven phases cannot be taken into account.
In Maharashtra, most of these pollsters say that BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won't be able to their tally of 41 seats out of 48 in Maharashtra. While Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat says the tally will come down to 36, Rajat Sharma owned India TV gives 34 seats leaving 13 for the UPA and one to others. The News Nation gives 33 seats to the NDA.
These pollsters say that the swing voters who constitute more than five per cent change their preferences as poll campaign start picking up.
The pollsters and BJP friendly channels are not giving more than 235 seats to the BJP while others say that BJP will not cross 220 seats.
These polls also predict that the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress will improve its tally from 44 to anywhere between 70-85 seats.
One channel has given 100 plus seats to the Congress and 143 to UPA.
Most pollsters say that SP-BSP combination is set to take away a big chunk - 36 seats out of 80 seats in UP. But in Bihar, the BJP has not much to worry about. The RJD and the Congress will be limited to just nine seats, say opinion polls.
The polls suggest that Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress and the K Chandrasekhara Rao's Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) will be big winners.
Now no opinion poll can be conducted and pollsters can collect data but show exit/opinion polls only on May 19 – the last day of polling.
Ends
Maharashtra opinion poll
Polling agency
Date BJP SHS Cong NCP
08/04/19 Times Now-VMR 38 10
05/04/19 Republic TV - 36 12
Jan ki Baat
06/04/19 India TV- CNX 34 13
27/03/19 ABP Majha 37 11
Mar./19 News Nation 33 15
Country's Opinion poll
Date Polling agency Others
NDA UPA
08/04/19 Times Now-VMR 283 143 135
04/04/19 Republic TV 310 122 111
Jan Ki Baat
06/04/19 IndiaTV-CNX 285 126 132
08/04/19 Newsx Polstrat 299 126 118
01/03/19 TV-9-C voter 261 143 139
01/03/19 Zee 24 Taas 264 165 114
01/01/19 ABP News- Cvoters 233 167 143
