by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
Phase-I
Moderate polling sends BJP into a Tizzy
Tough to retain 32 seats
Congress struggling to cross 7 seats mark
Regional parties dominate
Harish Gupta
New Delhi, April 12
If the moderate to low polling in most of the 91 Lok Sabha seats across 20 states is any indication, neither the BJP and nor the Congress has any reason to cheer. The BJP will be lucky to retain its tally of 32 seats it won during 2014 Modi wave in the first phase. The 2 to 5% less polling in the Hindi heartland of UP, Bihar and Uttrakhand and Maharashtra too has caused worries within the BJP core group. A steep fall of almost 10% less polling in Assam has jeopardized BJP's ambition of winning all five seats in the state. The BJP had won four seats in 2014 while the Congress one.
It is not if the BJP faced a rather tough battle to retain the windfall gains of 2014, the Congress was sailing easy. It won 7 seats out of 91 in 2014 and is struggling very hard to cross the figure. It won two seats in undivided Andhra Pradesh and is unlikely to get any seat this time. It did not win any seat in Maharashtra or Hindi heartland. The Congress' remaining five seats came from the North East. This time, except for Assam, it is unlikely to retain these seats due to rise of the regional parties in North East. Of course, it is back in the race in Maharashtra with its ally NCP in Maharashtra and giving the BJP-SS run for the money in all seven seats. Pollsters who keep track of voting patterns and conduct Exit polls but cannot come out with their forecast say that there is a bitter fight on three seats where anything can happen.
But the real battle is in UP where BJP is faced with strong SP-BSP-RLD combine on all the eight seats which the BJP had won in 2014. In four of these eight seats, the Congress has given tacit support to the Gathbandhan by putting up such candidates who will indirectly help the combine.
For example, in Ghaziabad, it put up Dolly Sharma, a Brahmin who will eat into Gen. V K Singh's votes while in Gautam Buddh Nagar, Arvind Singh Chauhan, a Thakur, will hurt BJP's Dr Mahesh Sharma. Similarly, in Kairana, Congress's Jat candidate will hurt the BJP's candidate while in Meerut BJP's Rajendra Agarwal will be badly hurt by Congress's Baniya candidate Harendra Agarwal. The Congress has not fielded any candidate in Baghpat and Muzaffarnagar from where Jayant Chaudhary and Ajit Singh were contesting.
But on the remaining two seats, the Congress has put up strong candidates - Imran Masood in Saharanpur and Naseemuddin Siddiqui in Bijnor.
The division of votes may help the BJP here. Of the four seats in Bihar, the BJP won all the three seats and 4th went to ally LJP. This time, it is contesting only one seat and gave two to the JD (U). Thus the BJP will have to struggle hard to retain 32 seats rather than gaining.
Ends
