by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
In May last, when a feisty campaign by BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi, brought it 282 seats, thus breaking the 25- year-long jinx of no single party being able to win a simple majority, there was a general feeling that the result augured a long period of stability. As Prime Minister, Modi seemed a picture of confidence, and his party seemed a picture of obedience. On the other hand, Congress, the main opposition party, was not only overwhelmed by a most stunning defeat, scraping together just 44 seats in a House of 543, but seemed unable to figure out the cause of its defeat. In the near-total absence of opposition, even Modi"s bitter critics thought there might not be much for them to do except to grin and bear.
Modi has still retained his carefully nurtured image of a man of action, and the opposition is yet to recover from the knockout punch it got in May. But there is a subtle change in the atmosphere during the 140 days. At an individual level nobody has the pluck to take on Modi. But there are hints of disaffection and disillusionment from within the ruling party itself, and that too so early in the day. NDA, the BJP-led coalition, is in a bad shape; BJP and Shiv Sena have already parted company before the Maharashtra elections, with the latter"s leader Uddhav Thackeray airing criticism of the Prime Minister with particular relish. Haryana Janhit Congress was dumped long ago. But what is more worrisome are rumblings from within the BJP.
These are getting increasingly audible of late, despite every effort to present the affairs of the party as business as usual. There have been persistent media reporting on bad vibes between Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh, including an episode of Modi reportedly ticking off the latter"s son for an alleged misbehaviour.
The story circulated so widely across Delhi"s grapevines that a belated denial by both men failed to convince even the least gullible. Then there are any number of stories about the government having been reduced to a one-man rule. If the economy is doing none too badly it is because the low end of the cycle had been over about six months before the change in government.
But there has been little progress on the economic reforms that many nonpolitical persons who still voted Modi were expecting to happen. It is rather surprising that even after asking the Supreme Court to cancel allotment of all coal blocks, the government failed to come out with an alternative policy to give much needed relief to the power sector. The production of coal has fallen steeply during four months period. The much talked about Goods and Services Tax (GST) is still work-in-progress because two BJP ruled states do not like to forgo their power to tax citizens for items in the states" jurisdiction. It is a political roadblock on which GST got stuck during the UPA rule and it remains stuck there, with no new thinking emanating from those controlling the levers of power. If retail price inflation is showing signs of moderation, it is largely due to demand remaining persistently low, which, in its turn, can be attributed to depleting numbers of regular jobs and lack of corresponding growth of contract jobs. Modi has been somewhat lucky that steep fall in global crude prices brought huge relief.
But the present stagnation in decision making has been caused either by the Prime Minister"s refusal to delegate work or reluctance on the part of the bureaucrats and ministers to take bold economic decisions. This may also be due the absence of protection from the CBI after the Single Directive was struck down by the Supreme Court. some of the Union Ministers including the Home Minister are not even free to appoint a personal Assistant or OSDs, not to speak of senior officials in their ministries.
The North Block reportedly wanted to get US-based economist Arvind Subramaniam as Chief Economic Adviser but, no sooner had the name trickled out in the media did the proposal get nixed. The embarrassing incident of Chinese troops making incursion in the Ladakh area even when the Chinese President is being escorted by Modi to his home state of Gujarat bespeaks gaping holes in intelligence gathering.
Modi also has uneasy relation with some of his party chief ministers. His strained ties with Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan are a known fact; Chauhan was even opposed to Modi being named the party"s PM candidate. But Modi"s tiff with Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia has reached a new height witnessed recently at a public meeting.
She is unable to expand even her cabinet from a mere 11, because neither the PM nor BJP president Amit Shah has the "time" to discuss the issue with her. The ill-feeling between Modi and Scindia probably also played a role in seeing that all three BJP candidates for byelection in the state got defeated by their Congress rivals so soon after the landslide wins in December 2013 Assembly and May 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
It is possible that the BJP under Modi will record a big tally in Maharashtra and Haryana which are going to poll tomorrow. Either way, the anti-Modi chorus will gain ground within his own party and outside. Modi wants Chief Ministers in states to work according to his plans and vision and desperate to get rid of hurdles as fast as possible. A win in Haryana and Maharashtra will give his “Mission Modi & His CMs” a much needed boost.
Modi baiters within
& outside are baying
for Modi’s blood
But this will have its pitfalls too. It will bring all like-minded secular parties to reach some sort of covert & overt understanding as soon as possible. The Opposition parties may have been fragmented in Maharashtra & Haryana. But this paralysis in the Opposition camp may change. The Modi baiters in the BJP may be silent for the moment. But they are looking for one wrong shot or a slip up. In politics, there is no full-stop.
(The author is National Editor of Lokmat group)
