by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
India
With the fall of the mighty Congress in Maharashtra , the transition should ideally have been
seamless. It hasn’t been so as the BJP has fallen short of simple majority by
22 seats, a formidable gap. As I write this article on Monday morning, it is
not certain if the BJP is going to pole-vault the gap with the help of the
41-member NCP or the 63-strong Shiv Sena, its ally-turned-enemy or form a
minority government. Regardless of which way the plot turns, it is clear that
the post-election developments in Maharashtra
are marked by two big shifts from the past.
First, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who
carpet-bombed the state with as many as 27 election rallies, has a view of
governance which leaves no room for individualistic, or churlish, chief
ministers; on this issue, he is a lot more uncompromising than his predecessors
of all parties. The other shift is the rise of Uddhav Thackeray in the regional
and Hindu chauvinist Shiv Sena party following the passing away of its founder,
and his father, Balasaheb Thackeray. If Uddhav were not so ungracious, and
churlish as a bear, a BJP-Sena government could well be close to being sworn in
by now. It may still happen, who knows, (Though chances are very slim) but,
with Sharad Pawar’s NCP having offered unconditional support, Modi and party
president Amit Shah are under no obligation to grin and bear Uddhav’s tantrums.
Underlying the Thackeray chieftain’s
haughtiness is the story of a family that came to prominence in the state’s
politics by playing the xenophobic ‘Maratha Manoos’ card for decades; now it’s
getting its desserts. It will never regain the confidence of BJP, the single
largest party which rules the country and rule the state anyway. It may prove
costly for the Sena, and its sole responsibility must lie with Uddhav, who
queered the pitch for the alliance when he commented, speaking entirely out of
his turn, that his late father would have “liked” Sushma Swraj (by inference,
not Modi) to be made prime minister. Blind to the fact that the BJP had left
behind the Advani era strategy of coalition-at-all-cost, he allowed Saamna,
to shoot fusillades at Modi at regular intervals. In fact it is Sanjay Raut,
the boorish editor of Saamna, who became Uddhav’s mentor. Prodded
by Raut, perhaps, Uddhav committed the gross folly of insulting the Prime
Minister at a very low and personal level.
However, Uddhav’s missteps point at a
general failure of politicians—some of them being even BJP insiders—to come to
grips with Modi’s perspective of India’s federal structure, and where the state
governments stand in his schemata. Before going further on this, I think it is
necessary to share with you my understanding of Modi’s federalism.
It is after the rise of Mandal-kamandal politics
in the 90’s that the federal spirit inherent in the Constitution got
degenerated into a chaotic surge of sub-nationalism, with state parties and
their governments bullying the Centre on virtually every issue, be it
maintaining fiscal discipline, or probing corruption charges. It eroded
governance to its core. The last UPA government was a prime example of
federalism turning to anarchy. Modi’s current emphasis on state governments to
fall in line is a direct response to the states’ waywardness, and its
consequent cost to the nation. Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje
Scindia, though a BJP leading light herself, did spar with Modi and suddenly
found that she stood alone in the party. Predictably, she has regained saner
judgment and has lately given signals that she’d have no difficulty in accepting
Modi’s overarching leadership. Poor Uddhav Thackeray had problem realizing that
the new Prime Minister was about to introduce a style of governance that cannot
tolerate, that too in the richest state of the republic, a troublesome partner
making such odd demands as being chief minister for half the terms, despite
getting only 50 per cent of BJP’s seats. In Haryana, the other state that went
to poll, the BJP sailed past the halfway mark, thus leaving no obstacles for
Modi’s writ to run to the lowest panchayat level. But Maharashtra ’s
electoral arithmetic left a question mark on it in the state which boasts the
most evolved economy.
Modi’s expectation of more compliance
from states is not anti-federal. On the other hand, it is an attempt to create
a super-cabinet—maybe something in place of the Planning Commission which he
has kept empty—comprising the chief ministers. It can eventually enjoy a very
special status in the governance architecture if it becomes less friction-prone
(and more regular) than the present Inter-State Council. If it functions
harmoniously, it can vastly enrich the policy content of the Union Government
with the states’ varied inputs.
In the state capitals,
Modi needs fellow
voyagers, not detractors.
In the 19th century,
Ranjit Singh, the astute monarch of Punjab ,
could sense that the entire subcontinent, including his vast country, would
soon come under British subjugation, so he deftly avoided confrontation with
the red-coat wearing soldiers flying the Union Jack. “Sab lal ho jayega’,
his prophecy proved correct. The India Maharashtra
and Haryana, are any indicator, there is a continuous drift towards BJP because
of Modi’s unique one-man operations.
In 130 days flat, he has set the stage
for sorting out one by one India’s long list of existential problems—like a new
banking system to gradually shift from a corrupt public distribution model to
direct cash transfer (abandoned by the UPA after introducing it); easing the
crippling energy shortage by preparing to auction the coal mining blocks (by
bringing at least two Ordinances), freeing diesel price and linking gas price
to its energy value rather than the claimed cost of exploration and production;
and, in another area, by making India’s hostile neighbours realize that the new
man in charge of the house in the backyard is a tough guy indeed. The coal rich
states hope to garner Rs five lakh crores from cancelled coal block auctions.
It was this “opportunity” that Modi talked about to investors in Japan & USA
(The author is
National Editor
of Lokmat group)
