A wake up call

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

In parliamentary democracy, an election is not the war. It is a battle. In public perception at least, the outcome of an election can be outdone, or nearly so, if it is reversed in the next election, be it a major assembly election of even a slew of bye-elections. Just as it is happening now. Narendra Modi's spectacular victory in the Lok Sabha elections in May got chipped off a month ago when his BJP lost all the three assembly bye-elections in Uttarakhand. But that's a minor damage compared to the big dent in the 18 assembly bye-election results that came out yesterday. BJP lost four of the seven seats it won in Bihar to a dour coalition between JD(U) of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav's RJD, and to Congress.

In Madhya Pradesh, known as a saffron citadel, BJP lost a seat won in the LS election to Congress, its arch enemy. In Karnataka, while the BJP lost the keenly observed seat of Bellary, often known as "the republic of Reddy brothers", the latter being the controversial mining magnates and the force behind former state chief minister B. S. Yedurappa, re-inducted into BJP supposedly due to a nod from Modi. BJP was not in the race in Punjab where its ally, SAD, and Congress each.

In short, the current round of bye-elections witnessed the strength of BJP being halved in 18 assembly constituencies cutting across regions. That draws an early question mark on the May victory of BJP which was solely attributed to the "Modi magic".

Democratic elections are of course a turning wheel and no popular verdict is final. Victory in the assembly elections due in Maharashtra, Haryana or Jharkhand later this year may go a long way in bringing the Modi spell back again. But the bye-election results have clearly recharged the drained batteries of the opposition to an extent that Modi can hardly ignore. The spectacular success of the Lalu Yadav-Nitish Kumar alliance in Bihar, in particular, has given a new matrix to the threat of a broad coalition against Modi-led BJP. During the general election, Modi promised a "Congress-mukt Bharat". In Bihar today, opposition leaders are already talking about a "BJP-mukt Bharat". 

If the table has turned so soon, much of the blame must go to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his overbearing attitude and deficit in people skills. He controls his access door all by himself, with the result that there is no bonding or ties of mutual feelings between him and his colleagues. Besides, he is not known to measure his words, with the result that many top ministers have tasted his tongue-lashing in the past 90 days. His acerbic reputation makes his colleagues tremble to enter his office. Most of them are politicians used to Delhi's custom of lavish parties and flying abroad at the drop of a hat. All this has come to an end. Also gone are the old unspoken hierarchies of ministers, with the ministers for Home and Finance always supposed to be the twin pillars of cabinet. Modi has shrunk them both to the midget size of others. The stature of the Home Ministry has considerably diminished though it is under Rajnath Singh, a former BJP president. The Home Minister is a prominent member of the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet who often initiates top executive appointments. However, under PMO's new order, appointment proposals are now vetted by PMO before being sent to the ACC for what an insider describes as "a formal nod".

Modi will have to

take everybody

along rather than

play solo

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, long hailed as the brightest bulb on BJP's Christmas tree, is also facing trying times. The sticky economic growth and unfettered inflation are not his only problems. Many economists were disappointed by his budget which, as they said, was high on promises but low on bold reforms. Among those who led the chorus was Arvind Subramaniam, He said "it (budget) failed to come clean on its fiscal accounting (in other words, a tissue of false promises)". The Senior Fellow of the Peterson Institute of International Economics also lambasted India's move to disrupt the 2013 Bali trade agreement of WTO by tying it up with India's food security issue. What is most surprising is that the same Subramaniam is now to be appointed Chief Economic Advisor to the Union Government. Jaitley is claiming that Subramaniam is his choice after all. On the other hand, it is possible that Modi wants to propelling the boat of economy all by himself, with an economist, rather than a politician, rowing the oar.

Can Modi correct his course after getting the first round of drubbing in the elections? He'll certainly try, but it may not be easy for several reasons. First, he has antagonized not only those who controlled the BJP party until very recently but its spiritual and political alma mater, the RSS. By relying entirely on Amit Shah, his bullheaded Sancho Panza from Gujarat, whom he has elevated to the exalted chair of president of BJP, Modi has gagged or stripped of position the entire brass of the party. The latest to get the firing was Varun Gandhi as a "Gandhi" may be the compulsion of the Congress but not of Sangh Parivar. And dribbles of information that further humiliate the old stalwarts, like Advani being dropped from the party’s parliamentary board, are sent to the favored media.

Earlier this year, Modi unleashed a spirited campaign against the ineffectual rule of UPA 2. His promise of achhe din resonated with many Indians as they were all hit by rising prices, shrinking job opportunities, and an impression that there was limitless corruption at the top. Though he brought to his party barely a third of the votes, it still won over half the Lok Sabha seats because of division in the ranks of its opponents, many of whom were tired of the Congress. Despite the asymmetry between vote share and seats, the BJP under Modi was welcomed by many who are apprehensive of the saffron party’s majoritarian views because of Modi’s promise, stated and implied, that he’d give India a fresh set of ground rules for its economy and politics.

Sadly, he was not specific about what he would do. While he began dilly-dallying on governance, he exhibited an unexpected degree of toughness in his dealings with party and government colleagues, beside being accommodating  the opposition. Modi can still hope to be in the saddle for his entire term. But, to be a reformer, he will have to show big heart too.

(The author is

National Editor of

Lokmat group)