by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
In fact a little application of hind-sight should underline the obvious similarity between today's pre-election scenario and another general election eighteen years ago, in 1996. In public perception, the ruling Congress then got as scarred as it looks today. The messiah of economic reforms, Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao was embroiled in one scam after the other beginning with Harshad Mehta. The relation between him and the nucleus of Congress at 10 Janpath was strained, and that is an understatement.
Unlike Rao, present Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has thankfully not been a victim of character assassination. But it is evident that his equation with 10 Janpath, started in 2004 with a rousing fanfare, got no less icy than with his Congress predecessor. Tension between the government and the party left its mark on policy issues, leading to a long holiday from reform and, most tragically, signalling an abrupt end to the optimism that grew in the first decade of the 21st century that it could indeed be "India's Century" (it is in fact the title of a book that Congress member of the Union Cabinet Kamal Nath wrote in this period). The policy paralysis combined with rampant corruption, internal mistrust and conflict turned UPA into a house of cards that would collapse with the slightest breeze.
However, between Congress and BJP, it is anything but a zero-sum game. Congress is dwindling but BJP is not proportionately gaining on its acceptability by other parties, at least before the poll. It is difficult to speculate if BJP could gather more magnetic power without Modi at its helm. It is true that the 2002 riots inGujarat have left a stain on him politically, if not
legally yet, and that makes it difficult for most potential coalition partners
to accept him as the future team leader. And that shows the commonality between
this year's election and 1996. In that election, the post-Babri communal
clashes provided the backdrop, and BJP patriarch L. K. Advani was as much the
face of militant Hindutva in those days as Modi has become, willy-nilly, since
2002. Net result, BJP was friendless and Advani untouchable.
The BJP got 161 seats against Congress' 140. Sushma Swaraj declared that once the BJP was sworn in, allies will line up. Alas ! A "united Front" came into being following the election, with no less than 192 seats. It was a mishmash of ideologies and interests, with communists speaking inOxford Race Course Road
It was comfortable only on paper. The intrigue and manipulation that raged, both within the so-called UF and from Congress, led to three prime ministers being sworn in within two years. BJP could only twiddle its thumbs until the 1998 mid-term poll that brought it to power for six years. However, it was the anarchy that prevailed in the 1996-98 period, with Mayawati and her BSP then emerging as a focal point of lawlessness in northernIndia
Its flip-side is that the small parties got a taste of realising the grave vulnerability ofWestminster democracy in a poor, large and multi-ethnic
nation like India
Eighteen years later, the crop of the Deve Gowda clones—Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha, Mayawati, even Lalu Yadav—are waiting for history to turn a full circle. Mamata has brought regional forces’ aspiration to the fore as she has said in a recent interview, “The Congress has lost all credibility, accountability and morality to rule...But BJP is not the alternative to Congress and Congress is not the alternative to BJP”. She is not alone. At least half a dozen state leaders will now announce, as triumphantly as Napoleon, “l’etat, c’est moi”.
Delhi
The 18
year Itch
By:- Harish Gupta
Only a few months back, as Narendra Modi was
declared BJP's choice as the next prime minister, predicting his success was
no-brainer. He looked confident, and the hoopla was extraordinary. But, from
the way the cookie crumbles, it looks a bit different now.
The two issues of
corruption and mis-governance that dogged the Congress-led UPA Government
particularly in its second term are still in the forefront. Nor has the economy
been anywhere close to the tunnel's end after four years of floundering. Few
think that Congress has the capacity or the goodwill to get yet another mandate
to rule. But, with barely seventy days before the general election, Modi seems
not ready yet to build the kind of national consensus that is the all-important
glue to put together a large coalition afterwards. No doubt, the hype about him
is still on. In fact a little application of hind-sight should underline the obvious similarity between today's pre-election scenario and another general election eighteen years ago, in 1996. In public perception, the ruling Congress then got as scarred as it looks today. The messiah of economic reforms, Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao was embroiled in one scam after the other beginning with Harshad Mehta. The relation between him and the nucleus of Congress at 10 Janpath was strained, and that is an understatement.
Unlike Rao, present Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has thankfully not been a victim of character assassination. But it is evident that his equation with 10 Janpath, started in 2004 with a rousing fanfare, got no less icy than with his Congress predecessor. Tension between the government and the party left its mark on policy issues, leading to a long holiday from reform and, most tragically, signalling an abrupt end to the optimism that grew in the first decade of the 21st century that it could indeed be "India's Century" (it is in fact the title of a book that Congress member of the Union Cabinet Kamal Nath wrote in this period). The policy paralysis combined with rampant corruption, internal mistrust and conflict turned UPA into a house of cards that would collapse with the slightest breeze.
However, between Congress and BJP, it is anything but a zero-sum game. Congress is dwindling but BJP is not proportionately gaining on its acceptability by other parties, at least before the poll. It is difficult to speculate if BJP could gather more magnetic power without Modi at its helm. It is true that the 2002 riots in
The BJP got 161 seats against Congress' 140. Sushma Swaraj declared that once the BJP was sworn in, allies will line up. Alas ! A "united Front" came into being following the election, with no less than 192 seats. It was a mishmash of ideologies and interests, with communists speaking in
It was comfortable only on paper. The intrigue and manipulation that raged, both within the so-called UF and from Congress, led to three prime ministers being sworn in within two years. BJP could only twiddle its thumbs until the 1998 mid-term poll that brought it to power for six years. However, it was the anarchy that prevailed in the 1996-98 period, with Mayawati and her BSP then emerging as a focal point of lawlessness in northern
Its flip-side is that the small parties got a taste of realising the grave vulnerability of
Eighteen years later, the crop of the Deve Gowda clones—Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha, Mayawati, even Lalu Yadav—are waiting for history to turn a full circle. Mamata has brought regional forces’ aspiration to the fore as she has said in a recent interview, “The Congress has lost all credibility, accountability and morality to rule...But BJP is not the alternative to Congress and Congress is not the alternative to BJP”. She is not alone. At least half a dozen state leaders will now announce, as triumphantly as Napoleon, “l’etat, c’est moi”.
Advani was
untouchable
in
1996. So is
Modi in
2014. Many
fronts
are readying
to fill
the vacuum
(The author is National
Editor of
Lokmat group of
newspapers
based in
