by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

India's Trade deficit with China doubled amid strained ties

It may sound strange but true. India may have adopted a tough posture against China saying unless peace and tranquility is maintained on the borders, trade, cultural and other relations cannot be normal. But India's imports from China have been rising rapidly year after year ever since border clashes erupted in 2020. India's trade deficit with China in 2020-21 was low at Rs 3.25 lakh crores. Those watching Indo-China trade were shocked to see that the trade deficit sky-rocketed to a new high of Rs 5.46 lakh crores in 2021-22. As if this was not enough, the 2022-23 saw a historic figure as the trade deficit touched Rs 6.68 lakh crores mark. Within a span of two years the balance of trade more than doubled in favour of China.

This was also despite the fact that a tough stance was adopted by the Modi government refusing permission to several Chinese companies to set up shop in India. Many high-tech companies had even agreed to bring technology and take an Indian partner as well. But no permission was granted to any one of them. But India's trade deficit doubled within two years from Rs 3.25 lakh crores to Rs 6.68 lakh crores in 2022-23.

The mind boggling figures were officially stated in the Lok Sabha the other day by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry in response to a question by an MP. The government said “most of the goods imported from China are capital goods, intermediate goods and raw materials and are used for meeting the demand of fast expanding sectors like electronics, telecommunication and power.” In order to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce dependence on imports, the government has also launched the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in 14 sectors. But there is no respite from the mounting trade deficit. 

India's Debt rose by 2.65 times in 9 years

The debt of the Central Government touched a record high of Rs 155.60 lakh crores i.e. 57.10% of the GDP as on March 31, 2023. The debt as on March 31, 2014 was just Rs 58.6 lakh crore i.e. 52.20% of the GDP, a five percentage point jump.

The debt sky-rocketed to new heights within nine years under the current dispensation. The debt of the Union Government in 2020-21 was Rs 121.9 lakh crore and Rs 105.10 lakh crores in 2019-20. Revealing this figure in an unstarred question in the Lok Sabha, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that one of the reasons for the high debt percentage and amount was on account of Covid-19 global pandemic, which hugely disrupted projections of Government’s public

finances.

The questions posed by two opposition leaders, Ravneet Singh Bittu and Adhikari Deepak, were about the details of debt amount per citizen of the country as on 30th June, 2023. But the minister gave the total debt which touched a record high of Rs 155.60 lakh crores. However, the Minister claimed that the risk profile of Central Government’s debt stands out as safe and prudent in terms of accepted parameters of indicator-based approach for debt sustainability. The Government debt is held predominantly (about 95%) in domestic currency. Outstanding external debt is financed by multilateral and bilateral agencies at concessional rates.

Its a different matter that interest paid by the Central government also rose from Rs 5.83 lakh crores in 2018-19 to Rs 9.28 lakh crores in 2022-23. The Government had announced its commitment to reduce the fiscal deficit to the level below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26. But it's a long way to go.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Pawar's stony silence

NCP president Sharad Pawar declined to speak at the 26 Opposition parties' conclave in Bengaluru on July 18. He maintained a studied silence despite being specifically requested by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. He requested Pawar at the beginning of the meeting itself to speak. When Pawar showed his reluctance, Kharge moved on and came back to Pawar again. But Pawar was in no mood to speak. After his most trusted colleagues and nephew Ajit Pawar split the party to join hands with the BJP, Pawar has not been in his element. He has  maintained a silence for the past sometime and looking for an opportunity to turn the tables on those who deserted him at the fag end of his political career.  Even in the Rajya Sabha, he has been maintaining complete silence. Though the majority of Mps in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha are with him, the strength on the ground in Maharashtra is yet to be tested. Pawar has an uncanny knack of sensing what's in store for the future in politics and has tremendous patience. He has always emerged as a winner. But for the time being he is on the receiving end as his one foot is in “INDIA” (A conglomerate of 26 parties) while the majority of MLAs are with the ruling NDA.

Waiting for Auspicious Day

The new Parliament building was ready and cleared after mock drills were conducted by experts. Every Member of Parliament was excited to start the new inning in the State-of-the-Art 'Temple of Democracy' during the Monsoon session. Then came the word that the shifting would be done during the midst of the Monsoon session. Why ? Are there any hiccups ? Any problem? It was stated by Hanuman Beniwal, a Member of the Lok Sabha from Rajasthan who is neither with the NDA and nor with the Opposition, that there is water-logging, seepage and leakage in the new building after heavy rains hit the National Capital. The official sources deny this insinuation. But insiders have another tail saying there is nothing of the sort. The Modi dispensation is looking for an auspicious date for the inauguration ceremony as conflicting views are being expressed by astrologers. The 'pandits' are differing and therefore, the session is held in the old Parliament building for now. A formal announcement regarding the new date is expected any time.

Why RSS is uneasy !

The RSS is extremely baffled as to why the Prime Minister did not deem it fit to speak on violence in Manipur as it washed out decades of its work there. The  Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram, a wing of the RSS founded 68 years ago, is dedicated to uplift eight crores tribal in the NE. Its other major task is to ensure that clashes among the communities must not be turned into Hindu-Christians conflicts. The RSS leadership was extremely happy that PM Modi helped tremendously during all these years not only in Manipur but other NE states by creating infrastructure and going there almost every month. The people of Manipur take the PM in high esteem and adore him. When the violence erupted in Manipur in May and started getting out of hand, it was conveyed to the government that intervention was needed at the highest level. After a month and a half the RSS issued an appeal for peace in Manipur on June 19 expecting the PM to take a hint and break his silence. The PM first spoke on Manipur violence on July 20, opening day of the Parliament session for just 36 seconds to waiting TV channels. He spoke at BJP's Parliamentary Party meeting on July 25. Many in the RSS are surprised as to why the PM is not speaking inside the Parliament as it will have an electrifying effect. The RSS is extremely worried that it will take decades to heal the wounds and bring communities together again.

The shaky top

With the Supreme Court turning heat on some of the actions of the Modi dispensation, the Centre is cautious enough not to take any decision which may create any bad blood. The Centre's instance has made two senior serving top bureaucrats uneasy; Cabinet Secretary Rajive Gauba and Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla who have served for nearly four years in office. This is two years more than their stipulated tenure after retirement. Both are fine officers and the government decided to continue with them even after two years tenure. No extension order has been issued in case Bhalla who is retiring on July 30, 2023. Gauba's tenure is ending in August. The name of Vandita Sharma, currently Chief Secretary, Karnataka is being mentioned as the next Cabinet Secretary. The re-thinking is emerging after a strong remarks from the bench of the Chief Justice of India on continuance of Sanjay Mishra as Enforcement Director. The government is in no mood to earn such a rap again. Sanjay Mishra is set to go as ED chief for almost five years in office where he conducted 2000 raids across the country and attached assets worth Rs 65000 crores. But the SC was in no mood to listen to his achievements saying the rules of service do not provide for such an interpretation. A fixed tenure means that an officer can continue for a minimum period of two years after retirement. It does not mean that the officers can hold the seat of power for an indefinite period. Gauba, however, may be sent as Principal Adviser in the PMO, a post earlier held by P K Sinha. Interestingly, the Centre is fighting to the fit to ensure Sanjay Mishra's stay at ED only. 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Ye Dil Mange More....... Modi wants more parties in the NDA kitty

The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi seems keen to rope in more and more parties in the NDA kitty. Not satisfied by having 37 parties, big or small, recognized or unrecognized, he wants to bring in as many parties as possible before the Lok Sabha polls. If reports emanating from the BJP headquarters are any indication, talks are underway with five more parties to bring them into the NDA.

The Janata Dal (S) headed by former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda has already said it would join the NDA after the Congress Party refused to do business with it. The BJP leadership is also wooing Mukesh Sahani, president of the Vikaksheel Insaan Party (VIP), to rejoin the NDA even as his three out of four MLAs in the Bihar Assembly joined the BJP. This left Mukesh Sahani in the lurch and now he is in demand again.

The BJP is also inclined to admit Mahaan Dal led by Keshav Dev Maurya which had declared support to BSP led by Mayawati. But the BSP is cool towards Mahaan Dal. It contested two seats out of 403 with the support of Samajwadi Party in 2022 and lost both. Now BJP thinks it can add in its kitty some SC/OBC votes.

But there was considerable surprise when the BJP leadership invited Haryana Janhit Party leader Gopal Kanda who is an MLA in state assembly. He is facing an abatement of suicide of an airhostess charge. But he himself did not attend the NDA meet and sent his representative. The list of 38 parties, however, did not contain his party's name. But he has been told that he is part of the NDA. Efforts are on to bring more parties from states like Punjab, Andhra, Telangana and other states.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Pressure mounting for Manipur CM Removal

BJP High Command disinclined

Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh may be under intense pressure to quit particularly after the Supreme Court's strong comments, the BJP high command seems reluctant to sacrifice him, at least for now.

Though the ruling BJP did buckle under pressure by expressing its readiness to discuss the Manipur situation in Parliament and the PM also expressed his “pain and anguish”. But there is no likelihood of the BJP high command agreeing to remove the Chief Minister despite wide-spread outrage not only in India but abroad as well after video of two Kukies women being paraded naked went viral. The Chief Justice of India, D Y Chandrachud also stepped in saying either bring the perpetrators to book or “step aside for the judiciary to take action.

A senior BJP office bearer said the current party leadership is unlikely to remove a sitting Chief Minister for failure to handle law & order situation. He said that the current crisis emerged after a court ruling giving ST status to a particular community. There was complete peace and harmony for all these years in the state and violence engulfed as a reaction to the court ruling. The administration on the ground could not anticipate its intensity initially.

The top priority of the state government is to restore law & order which is gradually returning to normalcy. The Union Home Minister had “talked to the Kuki groups and assured them of speedy action.”

The current BJP's central leadership is not known to remove its Chief Ministers in states or even Union Ministers merely because there is demand of their resignation. “No Chief Minister has been remove under the current dispensation on failure of law and order. The BJP has removed Chief Ministers only when the party finds that elections can't be won under his leadership in the state.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A political storm erupts over Opposition alliance “INDIA”

A political storm has hit over the nomenclature of the 26 Opposition parties' alliance as INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). While many leaders and parties feel that it is not appropriate to nickname the alliance as INDIA, the ruling NDA alliance dubbed it as a “political tool” in desperation. Some of them even feel that there should have been broad-base discussion before announcing the name.

It was TMC's Dereck O'brien who tweeted in the midst of the leaders' meeting yesterday “Chuck De India”. This was immediately followed by Congress MP Manick Tagore in his tweet “Jeetega India”. As if this was not enough, Priyanka Chaturvedi of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) used “INDIA” thrice in her tweet.” All this created utter confusion and acrimony began.

Though Janata Dal (U) president Lalan Singh made it clear today that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is not angry with the name INDIA as it was he who brought the Opposition parties together.

The clarification may have helped in subsiding the unhappiness among other parties as credit for choosing the name went to Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee.

The AAP leaders found nothing wrong in the Opposition alliance as INDIA.  Sanjay Raut, Sena Uddhav MP said, “Supporters of Narendra Modi used to say PM Modi is India but he is not India. Every citizen of the country is India.”

According to a senior leader who was inside the meeting, reports that appeared in a few TV channels were not true as enough discussion was held on the name of the alliance. The Congress's Tamil Nadu ally Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) suggested Save India Alliance while the Left parties suggested, “ We for India alliance.” But many felt it sounded like a slogan. Finally, Rahul Gandhi emphatically pushed for INDIA and others agreed. Those knocking at the doors of Election Commission for preventing the use of INDIA may not succeed as alliance is not a political party.