by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi Takes A Leaf Out of Indira's Script

Prime Minister Modi spurned a suggestion to go slow in action by the CBI, ED, Income-Tax etc against the leaders of various political parties. It was felt that continued slapping of cases against Opposition leaders belonging to the Congress, AAP, RJD, NCP, JMM, TMC, SP and others is forcing them to come together and it may result in sliding of seats. Lately, the agencies are sniffing corruption cases against the Janata Dal (U) leaders in Bihar. A couple of them are under the scanner as well. This unified fight against the BJP may lead to a slide in the number of BJP's Lok Sabha seats in May 2024 parliamentary polls. A clue of this apprehension came from statements being made by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in public in the recent past. After the drubbing in Karnataka, Shah said at public meetings that the BJP will get 300 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. Earlier, he used to claim that the BJP will win  350 seats. Several senior BJP leaders are apprehensive that coming together of 14-15 Opposition parties in key states of Bihar, UP, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka etc may give a tough challenge to the party in 2024. The Congress has already signaled that the Gandhis have opted out of the race for the Prime Minister's post in 2024. This has brought a new fervor for Janata Dal (U) leader Nitish Kumar who is playing a key role in uniting the Opposition parties. Mamata Banerjee showed her affection for the Congress at Patna conclave when she told Arvind Kejriwal and Congress to sort out bilateral differences outside the meeting over a “cup of tea”. But Modi is in no mood to relent and wants to take on them even if they come together. Perhaps, late Indira Gandhi's slogan of 1971 still rings in his ears "Ye Kahatein hein Indira Hatao, Mein Kahatin hoon Garibi Hatao". Interestingly, the Jana Sangh, erstwhile avatar of BJP was part of the opposition alliance which faced humiliating defeat in Lok Sabha polls. Modi may coin a new slogan in 2024 to defeat the united Opposition.

Third fronts in states worrying Congress!

After being snubbed by the Congress & others at the Patna conclave, the Aam Aadmi Party is exploring tie-ups with other regional parties in states. A new alliance may take shape in Maharashtra where AAP may join hands with the Bharat Rashta Samithi (BRS) headed by Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao. There are already reports that Prakash Ambedkar headed Vanchit Bahujan  Aghadi (VBA) may also join hands with KCR and Kejriwal. Interestingly, the AIMIM is already in alliance with BRS in Telangana and possibility of a tacit understanding with Asaduddin Owaisi can't be ruled out in Maharashtra too. If this happens, the Congress-NCP-Shiv Sena (UBT) may be at the receiving end. Owaisi had caused a body blow to the Congress in Assembly and Lok Sabha polls earlier. The BRS is also keen to contest Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh as well. There are reports that dissident Congress leader Sachin Pilot is also exploring options in Rajasthan as the Assembly polls draw near. There are reports that Lok Sabha MP and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) leader Hanuman Beniwal and BSP may join hands in Rajasthan in the Assembly polls. It is whispered that poll strategist Prashant Kishore is advising Sachin Pilot these days. There are reports that a third front in Chhattisgarh may also emerge within the next couple of months. If this happens, the Congress may find going tough.

Akhilesh's 50:30 formula

Irrespective of statements made by Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav in public, it is almost certain that he will contest the next Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the Congress and other parties. The RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary may not have attended the Patna conclave of the Opposition parties in the wake of reports that he has opened a pipeline with the BJP as the ruling party wants to strengthen its Jat vote bank. The wrestlers have already been handled by Home Minister Amit Shah and there is no apparent reason for the farmers' leaders to be angry anymore as three bills had been withdrawn. But Akhilesh Yadav has not given up his efforts to woo Jayant Chaudhary. It is also emerging that the Dalit group, Azad Samaj Party (ASP) led by Chandra Shekhar Azad ‘Ravan’, may finally enter into seat sharing arrangements with Akhilesh Yadav. It is now emerging that the SP will contest 50 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP leaving rest for the allies including the Congress and others. The SP had won a maximum of 36 Lok Sabha seats since its inception. Therefore, the SP will share the rest of 30 seats with other parties. 

Putting Best foot forward

It is now clearly emerging that most of the Union Ministers who are members of the Rajya Sabha may be asked to contest for Lok Sabha in 2024. Be it Leader of the Rajya Sabha and Cabinet Minister holding many portfolios Piyush Goyal or Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman or even External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Prahlad Joshi, Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, MSME Minister Narayan Rane, Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnav, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya and Labour Minister Bhupendra Yadav. The BJP leadership wants to put its best foot forward in states where it needs to improve its Lok Sabha tally including Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Karnataka, Telangana, Maharashtra and other states.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

By-poll for 5 Lok Sabha seats due, EC undecided, BJP unsure 

The Election Commission of India (ECI) continues to be in a dilemma over holding a by-poll for five Lok Sabha seats in four states due to a variety of reasons. These seats are Ghazipur (UP), Pune and Chandrapur (Maharashtra), Wayanad (Kerala) and Ambala (Haryana).

The Wayand seat fell vacant in March this year after Rahul Gandhi was disqualified by the Surat Court and he failed to get a stay on his disqualification. The Ghazipur seat also fell vacant after Afzal Ansari (BSP) was disqualified in May following his conviction by a court. The demise of two BJP Mps; Girish Bapat (Pune) in March and Rattan Lal Kataria (Ambala) in May and lone Congress MP from Chandrapur (Maharashtra), Suresh Dhanorkar also necessitated by-polls.

With the Parliamentary polls just 11 months away, there is a view that no useful purpose will be served by holding a by-poll for now. Secondly, Section 151-A of the Representation of People Act, a by-poll for filling a vacancy to the Lok Sabha shall be held within a period of six months from the date of the occurrence of the vacancy, if the remainder of the term of the MP is not less than a year. The EC, however, can sidestep the statutory requirement if the commission, in consultation with the Central government, certifies that it is difficult to hold the by-poll within the stipulated period. The EC's prolonged wait not to hold by-poll for the Wayanad seat is extremely baffling as Rahul Gandhi didn't get a relief from the court.

There is speculation that the by-polls may be held along with the Assembly polls in five states due in November-December. But BJP leaders in Maharashtra and Kerala are not enthusiastic to hold by-polls.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi rising, BJP sliding

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's graph as the most popular leader of the world is rising and leaders across the globe listen to his innovative ideas attentively. They also appreciate India's growth story and are keen to do business with New Delhi. But those handling BJP's election strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are a worried lot as elections are not won in the name of “Vikas” (development). In 2014, Modi won on anti-corruption plank and in 2019, Balakot air strikes played a decisive role following the Pulwama tragedy killing 40 CRPF jawans. In both these parliamentary polls, the Opposition was fragmented barring a few states. But 2024 is different. Irrespective of squabbles over which party will contest how many seats, major players have taken a decision in principle to contest Lok Sabha polls unitedly. A shape will emerge only after Assembly polls in five states in November-December this year. The BJP is also worried over the massive fall in BSP-led Mayawati's Dalit vote bank in UP and other states. The Congress'  collapse began with the rise of Kanshi Ram and Mayawati in the 90s as Dalits voted for BSP en-block. The Muslims voted for regional parties not only in states but in Lok Sabha polls as well. The Congress was left high and dry as upper castes including Brahmins voted for the BJP.  But 2024 seems different as many internal surveys conducted by the BJP showed that the Dalits are looking up to Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate. With the Gandhis opting out of the Prime Ministerial race in 2024, Kharge may bring value on the table. After two failed Dalit leaders to lead the country (Babu Jagjivan Ram in 1977-79 and Mayawati in the 90s), this may be another chance for a Dalit leader in Kharge to don the mantle. It may be a long shot as Modi looks to be firm in the saddle. But Dalits may back the Congress in many key states including in UP, Bihar etc. Kharge made the difference in Congress's historic win in Karnataka as Dalits voted for the party in large numbers.

No cool breeze for Modi Ministers

Nearly half a dozen Union Ministers wanted to go abroad by clubbing official engagements with vacation to meet close relatives and friends. Some of the ministers were officially invited to Western Capitals to address seminars and interactions with the Indian diaspora as well by various organisations. Some of the ministers had been visiting London or Europe during the summer season. But they were dismayed and forced to cool their heels in India only. When their proposals reached the Ministry of External Affairs, it sent the same to the PMO for a decision. The PMO's clearance is a must for any minister to travel abroad. They were politely told to stay put in India as they have to be part of month-long celebrations of 9 years of the Modi government and other important domestic business. No one is sure if  a couple of them may have to pay the price as and when Cabinet reshuffle takes place. Some of them are upset as they haven't been able to meet their close family members for a long time due to one reason or the other.

The Renaming Game

Even as the controversy with regard to the renaming of Nehru Memorial Museum and Library (NMML) in the national Capital as the Prime Ministers' Museum and Library (PMML) has not subsided, its cascading effect is being witnessed in states. The name of Nehru is being erased wherever possible is seen in states with Madhya Pradesh taking the lead. The Congress alleged that Nehru Park in Madhya Pradesh’s Budhni, was renamed after Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's elder son, Kartikeya Chouhan. Budhni is the Assembly constituency of Shivraj Singh Chouhan. As if this was not enough, another park in Budhni was named after Kunal, younger son of Shivraj Singh Chouhan. The BJP leaders defended it saying it was the wish of the local people and no motives be attributed.

BJP's Twin Problems  

The BJP is facing an uphill task in joining hands with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh and Akali Dal (Badal) in Punjab. The BJP needs the support of YSR Congress in Rajya Sabha to ensure smooth passage of the Ordinance relating to Delhi Government. The BJP will also need its support to ensure the passage of the Uniform Civil Code Bill (UCC) if introduced in Parliament as well. If the BJP joins hands with the TDP headed by N Chandrababu Naidu, the YSR Congress will not support the BJP. Similarly, the BJP is in a serious dilemma whether to bring the Akali Dal (Badal) back into the NDA or not. The state BJP leadership is strongly against any tie-up with the Badals. The opponents also include prominent BJP leaders, Mps and Ministers as well. They say its a lifetime chance for the BJP to revive it in a big way on its own rather than basking in the glory of Badals. PM Modi is yet to take a final decision on these issues. 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi averse to invoke Article 356 in Manipur

Before his departure to the US & Egypt on June 20, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is understood to have conveyed to senior leaders in the party and government that ethnic violence must be brought under control at the earliest.

More than 100 people have died, houses torched and 50,000 people have been displaced in the ethnic violence for the past 50 days. While the Kuki legislators, including those from the BJP, have blamed the State police, the dominant Meiteis have accused the Assam Rifles of helping the Kuki insurgents.

Sources in the Modi dispensation say that during the past nine years, the PM had never imposed President's rule in any state. It is reminded that there was extreme pressure to dismiss the Mamata Banerjee government in the wake of massive violence in West Bengal. But Modi never invoked Article 356 to dismiss a legitimately elected government. Similar pressure was also there to impose President's rule in Jharkhand. But Modi did not buckle under these pressures.

It was stated that in Manipur, President's rule was imposed 10 times between 1967-2002 by various governments at the Centre. However, his government would help the state to restore normalcy as the President's rule is no solution.

The President's rule was invoked in a couple of states under Modi as the ruling Congress MLAs quit or withdrew support by the alliance partners. Arunachal Pradesh, Puducherry, Uttarakhand and Jammu & Kashmir faced this situation. Even Delhi witnessed a brief stint of President's rule as Arvind Kejriwal himself quit in 2014 and no other party was in a position to form the government. The BJP is in a dilemma regarding the continuance of Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh as he is unable to contain the situation.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall 

How Amit Shah Tamed Wrestlers

The medal winning wrestlers agitating for action against WFI Chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh were elated after Union Home Minister Amit Shah gave them time to meet on June 3 late in the evening at his residence. But they got the shock of their lives when they reached his Krishna Menon Marg residence. Details surfacing days after the meeting reveal that Shah made them wait in a tiny non-VIP room for nearly an hour and a half before giving them an audience. Shah made it known to them that he was extremely upset with them as they had announced their decision to immerse their medals into the Ganges at Haridwar. In fact, Shah had been upset with them from the day one they allowed leaders of Opposition parties to join their protest at Jantar Mantar and had directed the Delhi Police to evict them on May 28 itself when they marched towards the newly constructed Parliament House on its inaugural day. He said no leniency should be shown towards them and the place must be vacated. Shah reported to have also asked them whether they had taken leave from the Railway Ministry where they are currently employed due to winning these medals and if they didn't join duty, they may even be sacked and these medals are the property of the nation. The wrestlers group included Sakshi Malik, Bajrang Punia, Vinesh Phogat didn't know what to do. Shah, however, assured them that the inquiry into the sexual misconduct would be thorough, impartial and would spare none. He told them to meet Sports Minister Anurag Thakur which they did and joined duty in the Railway ministry.

RG's Hush Hush White House visit !

Did Rahul Gandhi visit White House during his recent trip to the USA? No one is denying or confirming in the Congress Party as he is traveling in Europe now. Reports emanating from Washington say that a senior Congress leader who doesn't hold a diplomatic passport, met senior officials in the State Department apart from various think tanks, academics & tech experts besides addressing Indian diaspora. This was Rahul Gandhi's first effort to meet people of Indian origin in the USA in a structured manner after 2014. There are reports that he did go to the White House but who he met during this visit is being kept under the wraps. It is highly unlikely that Joe Biden granted him an audience or Rahul Gandhi sought a meeting. The White House may not like to send such a signal particularly at a time when PM Modi is flying to the USA on his State Visit, a historic feat for any Indian PM. However, Rahul Gandhi's growing acceptability during the past sometime has gone up particularly after Sonia Gandhi abdicated her post, Bharat Jodo Yatra and Karnataka Assembly poll win. Though Rahul still needs to learn the ropes of public speaking and connecting with the people, he still has a long way to go.

Ministers learning Hindi Fast

For the past few months, the BJP leadership has been focusing on maximum use of Hindi. Be it communicating with the people or corresponding for government business. The Prime Minister, Home Minister Amit Shah and other ministers use Hindi as their language for communication with the people. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharam has been trying her hand in reading Hindi text and trying her best to speak in Hindi whenever addressing the audience inside or outside the Parliament. In fact, she had started doing this ever since she joined the BJP in 2008 and was promoted as official spokesperson of the party. To the surprise of political watchers, the latest to join the group of ministers is External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar who is speaking in Hindi during public discourse. To the surprise of the diplomatic fraternity, Jaishankar has learnt the Hindi lessons rather fast. Is he preparing to contest for the Lok Sabha seat in 2024? No one is sure in the party. But he has been frequently traveling to Tamil Nadu and other states. Perhaps, he may be BJP's star campaigner in 2024 as he speaks rather brutally frank and candid and acquired Hindi rather fast. Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw also interacts only in Hindi

Tushar Mehta to get extension

The five year term of Tushar Mehta, Solicitor General of India, considered to be the most powerful law officer in the Modi dispensation, is ending on June 30, 2023. He came to the Capital with the advent of the Modi-Shah team in Lutyens' Delhi and after four years' stint as Additional Solicitor General, promoted as SG in 2018 when Ranjit Kumar's term was not renewed. Legal fraternity is confident that Mehta will get a new term and after 2024, may  be promoted as Attorney-General of India in place of R Venkataramani. All eyes are set on half a dozen Additional Solicitor-Generals too whose tenure is also ending. A couple of them expressed their desire not to continue.