Fly on the wall
Harish Gupta
Modi-Shah Eye the Last Frontier Now
For the Bharatiya Janata Party, Punjab has long remained the final political fortress it could never conquer on its own. But with the 2027 Assembly election now firmly on the radar, the Narendra Modi–Amit Shah combine has begun crafting an aggressive multi-layered strategy to crack the border state — politically, socially and psychologically.
The BJP believes the ruling Aam Aadmi Party government under Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann is increasingly vulnerable. The recent twin low-intensity blasts near the Army cantonment boundary wall in Amritsar’s Khasa and outside the BSF Punjab Frontier headquarters in Jalandhar handed the BJP a potent national security narrative. Punjab DGP Gaurav Yadav’s observation that Pakistan’s ISI could be linked to the incidents allowed the BJP to sharpen its attack, projecting the Mann government as weak on security in a sensitive border state where Khalistani elements are once again attempting to regroup.
Privately, BJP strategists argue that Punjab’s electorate is growing uneasy over what they describe as “administrative drift” under the AAP regime. The Opposition’s allegations about Mann allegedly arriving drunk at an official function have further fueled the perception battle around the chief minister’s image.
But the BJP’s biggest weapon may well be its political engineering. The party has quietly built a formidable network of imported heavyweights. Punjab BJP chief Sunil Jakhar came from the Congress. Union Minister Ravneet Singh Bittu crossed over from the Congress. Former chief minister Capt Amarinder Singh is already in the saffron camp. Now, the dramatic defection of Raghav Chadha and six AAP Rajya Sabha MPs to the BJP has injected fresh momentum into the party’s expansion plans.
The message from Delhi is unmistakable: Punjab is no longer being treated as an impossible state. After Bengal, the BJP now wants its next great breakthrough in the nation’s volatile border belt.
What's common between Suvendu and Sarma
For decades, India’s opposition parties perfected one political art: promoting bloodlines over battlefield commanders. The BJP, meanwhile, perfected the opposite—spotting ambitious regional warhorses abandoned by dynastic courts and turning them into chief ministers. That is the common thread binding Suvendu Adhikari and Himanta Biswa Sarma.
Adhikari was not merely another Trinamool functionary. He was the architect of Nandigram, the mass mobiliser who helped catapult Mamata Banerjee from street fighter to Bengal’s undisputed ruler. For years, he was seen as the natural political heir. But the succession script changed when the party pivoted toward Abhishek Banerjee, the nephew waiting in the wings. Adhikari walked out in 2020, joined the BJP, and became not merely as Leader of Opposition, but the saffron camp’s King of Bengal.
The Assam story is eerily similar. Sarma spent 25 years building the Congress in the Northeast brick by brick. Yet when succession politics surfaced, the establishment appeared more comfortable backing Gaurav Gogoi, son of former CM Tarun Gogoi. Sarma crossed over to the BJP in 2015. Today, he is not just Assam’s dominant leader but the BJP’s principal strategist across the Northeast.
The lesson is brutal. Parties weakened by a dynasty often lose their most effective generals. The BJP’s rise is not explained only by electoral machinery or aggressive campaigning. Its real long game lies in identifying leaders discarded by family-run parties, rewarding ambition over inheritance, and converting political resentment into raw electoral power.
Nitish also Crowns His Prince
For years, Nitish Kumar built his political brand around two claims — clean governance and uncompromising opposition to dynastic politics. With the elevation of his son Nishant Kumar as health minister in the Samrat Choudhary-led Bihar government, that carefully cultivated moral high ground has come crashing down.
The symbolism was impossible to miss. Nishant, who joined the JD(U) barely a month ago and has never fought an election, walked straight into ministerial office after touching his father’s feet on stage. No years in the organisational trenches. No electoral baptism. No legislative experience. Just lineage.
For decades, Nitish attacked Lalu Prasad Yadav for turning politics into a family enterprise — first installing Rabri Devi as chief minister and then promoting sons like Tejashwi Yadav. Today, Nitish stands accused of embracing precisely the culture he once denounced.
The BJP’s silence has been equally revealing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi routinely attacks “parivarvaad” as a danger to democracy, yet the saffron camp looked the other way when its ally inducted a political novice solely because he carried the right surname. The official explanation — that allies are free to choose their ministers — sounded less like principle and more like political convenience. The irony is devastating: the man who spent decades attacking the dynasty has ultimately surrendered to it.
What Next for the Trinamool?
What lies ahead for the TMC is the million-dollar question. One thing, however, is beyond doubt: Mamata Banerjee is a street-fighter, a leader who thrives on direct confrontation. She is unlikely to allow the BJP to govern West Bengal without resistance. Unlike Odisha, where the BJP faces little push back, Bengal promises to remain a battleground, with Banerjee personally taking on the government.
Yet, time is not on her side. Her decision to project her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, as heir apparent has not inspired the same mass appeal that she commands. That gap raises questions about succession and party cohesion.
Rumours during the election of around 15 Trinamool MPs being in touch with the BJP — including some from the Rajya Sabha — were dismissed by the party as psychological warfare. But could such speculation acquire substance now? Bengal’s political history offers clues. While Left cadres rarely defected, Congress leaders often switched sides. The Trinamool itself is largely built on that Congress legacy — leaders accustomed to being in power.
If the perception grows that the BJP is entrenched in Bengal for the long haul, defections cannot be ruled out. With 29 MPs, the Trinamool remains a significant bloc — and a potential target. Don’t be surprised if “Operation Lotus” quietly gathers pace in the state, especially beyond minority-dominated constituencies.
