Fly on the Wall
When A whisper caused Flutter in Maharashtra
An innocuous whisper regarding Maharashtra's strong BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis caused a flutter not only in Mumbai but in the national Capital as well. A whisper on a leading social media website's one liner said that Fadnavis has been allotted a government bungalow in Delhi by the Modi government. This came out of a blue as government bungalows are allotted to Union Ministers or equivalents, bureaucrats, Judges and others. The presidents of recognized national political parties are also allotted a government bungalow. Since Devendra Fadnavis' name had earlier figured as one of the probables for the post of interim BJP chief in place of J P Nadda, many wondered why this bungalow to him as the latter's tenure has been extended until the Assembly polls in January 2025. Any decision on Nadda's successor as BJP president will be taken in due course then. No one in the Housing & Urban Development Ministry under Manoharlal Khattar was willing to say anything on the issue either. Senior BJP leaders in Delhi were not willing to say anything as this may only be known to "Top Two" in the system. The whisper died its own death. But it certainly gives a clue that something is cooking in Maharashtra which may only surface after the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand in January 2025.
Why BJP is worried about AAP in Haryana
The BJP may be slightly comfortable in Jammu & Kashmir. But when it comes to Haryana, the leadership is extremely worried. Contrary to popular perspective, the Aam aadmi Party's decision to contest all 90 seats alone in Haryana may hurt the saffron party the most. While the Jats, a majority community in the state, are fully behind the Congress leadership, Muslims are also lending their helping hand. The Congress high command is trying hard to rope in Dalit community as well by pitching Lok Sabha MP Kumari Selja as a probable face of the party. It would be interesting to mention that Selja recently met Sonia Gandhi and bitterly complained against the Hoodas. Sonia Gandhi may bring some kind of rapprochement between the two leaders so that a public discourse is avoided.
The BJP's added worry is AAP contesting Haryana Assembly polls on its own which may cut into its vote bank in urban areas comprising middle class and other non-Jat communities. The AAP had contested Lok Sabha polls in a tactical alliance with the Congress in 2024. The Congress contested nine Lok Sabha seats while the AAP got the lone Kurukshetra seat.
The Congress won five compared to nil in 2019 and AAP drew a blank. The BJP lost five seats and its vote share also fell from 58.21% in 2019 to 46.11%. The Congress vote share jumped from 28.51% in 2019 to 43.67% in 2024. The AAP also got 3.94% votes despite contesting just one seat. Yet, the BJP proved its edge as it led in 44 Assembly segments out of 90 seats while the Congress won in 42 segments while AAP in four. It is argued that the AAP will cut into the BJP's non-Jat votes. Interestingly, the other two leading Jat dominated parties; the INLD and Dushyant Chautala's JJP obtained 1.74% and 0.87% votes respectively during the Lok Sabha polls. Therefore, the BJP leadership is extremely worried over retaining Haryana under changed circumstances.
Astrologers back in business
With the BJP missing the magic figure of 272 Lok Sabha seats mark in June 2024, astrologers are back in business in the Capital in a big way. The astrologers were cooling their heels for the past ten years as the BJP had been winning a clear majority and PM Modi had trounced his rivals decisively. Secondly, the PM's style of function is such that no one was able to get a clue as to what's happening in the government. But in 2024, the situation changed as non-BJP parties realized that the BJP can be defeated if the right strategy is applied. The astrologers who had virtually lost their business in the political arena are now back with a bang and can be seen more frequently at the houses of politicians of all hues. It is no secret that some of the senior leaders including ministers have their “family astrologers” for a long time and keep consulting them. One of the Rajya Sabha MPs is reported to be an expert in astrology. A leader close to a senior minister whispered that 'Mantri ji doesn't take a step without consulting his time tested and trusted astrologer.' But all this is being done very discreetly.
Virtual or Physical !
The PM is likely to lay the foundation stone of Rs 76,000-cr Vadhavan Port project in Maharashtra when he visits the state on August 30. The Union Cabinet had approved it a couple of months ago and this will be one of the largest port projects in India. It is expected to serve as a gateway port for the upcoming India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) and International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC). The port is located in the Palghar district. It now transpires that the PM is likely to do it virtually from Mumbai instead of traveling to Palghar due to paucity of time. The Fly was told that some of the farmers' groups are not in favour of the project due to a variety of reasons. The last word has not been written yet.
Modi to address 20 + rallies in J&K and Haryana
With the BJP deciding to go alone in J&K and Haryana Assembly polls, PM Modi will have to walk an extra mile. Reports emanating from the BJP headquarters here indicate that a real time assessment is underway to pinpoint specific seats and areas where the PM will be addressing rallies. The PM is likely to address at least two rallies in the Valley and minimum eight in Jammu. Similarly, in Haryana, the PM is likely to address 8-10 rallies.
The BJP is working hard to retain Haryana for the third time in a row. In 2019, it won 40 seats and entered into post-poll alliance with the JJP to form the government.
Elections to the 90 seats in J&K will be held in 3 phases -- September 18, September 25, and October 1. Results will be announced on October 4. The BJP will be contesting all 43 seats in the Jammu region and 20-27 seats in the Valley. But the BJP will focus on 10-12 seats to win in the Valley out of 47.In the remaining seats in the Valley, the BJP may lend indirect support to smaller parties and Independents.
In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP won 25 out of 37 seats in the Jammu region. After delimitation, the number went up to 43. In the Valley, the number of seats went up to 47 instead of 46. The first phase of elections are scheduled to be held in J&K on September 18, second phase on September 25 and third phase on October 1. Counting of votes will be held on October 4.
