Tuesday, May 28, 2024

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Low polling continues though gap narrowing  

BJP confident of winning 3rd time,  INDI Alliance sees Modi wave gone with the wind 

Urban voting down upto 12% in Mathura 


With the Lok Sabha polls coming to an end in a week's time, political analysts are keeping their fingers crossed as polling continues to be low in all  six phases since April 19. The 7th phase will culminate on June 1.  Although Exit polls on 1st June should provide some clarity on the likely outcome, top NDA leaders assert Modi's return for third time in a row while the INDIA bloc is confident of walking away with stunning numbers on June 4.

The task of experts to predict  numbers has become difficult as polling has been low in 2024 compared to high turnout in 2014 Lok Sabha polls (67% plus) and 68.6% in 2019 ensuring Modi's second term. Many feel that low polling may be due to voters' apathy, waning Modi wave, unprecedented heat wave across the country and other reasons.

The heartening sign for the ruling dispensation is that voter turnout increased to 63.4% in the 6th phase surpassing the average polling of 62.2% in earlier five phases. 

Another worrying sign is that in majority of the urban constituencies; be it Chennai, Lucknow, Gandhinagar, Mumbai North, Jaipur, Guwahati, Jabalpur, Mathura, NCT of Delhi and other towns are lower by 2% to 12%. If Mathura saw a fall in voting % as high as 12% compared to 2019, voting was 61.08% in 2019 in favour of Hema Malini compared to 49.41% in 2024. In Delhi, the average fall was 2%.


The Prime Minister went out of his way and gave as many as 71 one-to-one interviews to TV channels, print, digital and social media to prop up voters to prop up numbers. Interestingly, the BJP's top leadership has now indicated that it will be too happy to retain its 2019 tally of 303 and not 370 as claimed before the poll process started.