Fly On the Wall
The
Rise and fall (?) of AAP
If you thought Rahul Gandhi or the Congress party is the principal target of the BJP during the on-going Lok Sabha campaign, you may perhaps be under the wrong impression. No doubt, the Prime Minister has been continuously targeting the “Shahzada” and other members of the Gandhi family in his rallies. But none of the senior Congress leaders has either been put behind bars or targeted personally during the Lok Sabha polls. In fact, the BJP leaders consider Rahul Gandhi an asset who provides fodder through his innocuous comments or slip of a tongue. If sources close to the ruling dispensation are any indication, the real target is Aam Aadmi Party and its convener Arvind Kejriwal. Reasons are many, the foremost being that no political leader except Kejriwal has earned the distinction of defeating the BJP in the Delhi Assembly polls not once but thrice. This was despite the fact that PM Modi had addressed rallies after rallies in Delhi to defeat Kejriwal in 2015 & 2020. No doubt, Kejriwal also tried to be bigger than his boots when he contested as many as 432 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 polls and could win four from Punjab. In 2019, he became wiser and fielded 35 candidates only. Bhagwant Singh Mann was the lone MP to represent Punjab in Lok Sabha. This election, he fielded 22 candidates and entered into an alliance with Congress in Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat etc. Of these 22, AAP is contesting 13 seats in Punjab alone. Yet the AAP's anti-corruption crusader Arvind Kejriwal is languishing in jail. The case is rare as this is the first time that a sitting Chief Minister is in jail on corruption charges in the midst of Lok Sabha polls. Will it help the BJP politically and decimate the AAP? The result of this unprecedented act will be out only on June 4.
Nitish on the Radar too
Normally, no one speaks for more than 5 minutes at a rally where Prime Minister Modi is the chief guest. But Nitish Kumar was full of steam and spoke for more than 15-minutes, a rare scene. As if this was not enough, Nitish Kumar gave signs of losing his mental balance and turned out to be quite an embarrassment. Nitish went to the extent of saying that the NDA will cross 4000 seats. As if this was not enough, Nitish Kumar came back to his seat and touched Modi's feet triggering a political storm.
If the Opposition leaders tried to portray it as Nitish bowing down to Modi, it also raised concerns about the CM's health amidst rumours that he is suffering from dementia. Nitish Kumar has been doing several such acts causing huge embarrassment to the party and workers. Since then, the PM has not addressed any meeting with Nitish Kumar though Modi went on to address rallies at Gaya and Purnea as well. Gaya is being contested by Jeeten Ram Manjhi while Santosh Kushwaha is contesting from Purnea. Both are BJP's allies in the NDA. It has been also decided that Nitish Kumar will have to follow a written script and speak within the given time frame. If insiders in the BJP are to be believed, Nitish Kumar is on the radar. The BJP would like to install its own Chief Minister in the key North Indian state. It has severed ties with Akalis in Punjab and Bihar is next in line. What a fall of “personally honest and politically dishonest leader” said a JD (U) leader.
Another Worrisome Slide
Mayawati was a school teacher and had gone to BJP leader late Madanlal Khurana seeking a ticket to contest as a corporator. She failed and as luck would have it, she got in touch with Kanshi Ram, BSP founder who wanted a Dalit to be the Prime Minister of India. He groomed her and made her UP Chief Minister after clinching an alliance with the Samajwadi Party in 1995. She never looked back and stitched alliances with the BJP, Congress or whosoever came her way to stay in power. The turning point came when she became the Chief Minister on the strength of her own party in 2007. The BSP became a pan-India party winning 21 Lok Sabha seats with 6.17% votes in 2009. And then began the slide as it drew a blank in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. She had to join hands with SP again in 2019 and got 10 seats and vote share in UP was 19%. But in the Assembly polls in 2022, vote share fell to as low as 12%.
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls may witness further erosion . Ever since Modi emerged on the scene, there has been a shift of Dalit voters towards the BJP. The Enforcement Directorate's case of money laundering forced her to play second fiddle to the ruling party at the Centre. Mayawati has been left high & dry with no capacity to win a Rajya Sabha seat from any of the states nor can guarantee a winning Lok Sabha seat either.
