Modi Takes A Leaf Out of Indira's Script
Prime
Minister Modi spurned a suggestion to go slow in action by the CBI,
ED, Income-Tax etc against the leaders of various political parties.
It was felt that continued slapping of cases against Opposition
leaders belonging to the Congress, AAP, RJD, NCP, JMM, TMC, SP and
others is forcing them to come together and it may result in
sliding of seats. Lately, the agencies are sniffing corruption
cases against the Janata Dal (U) leaders in Bihar. A couple of them
are under the scanner as well. This unified fight against the BJP may
lead to a slide in the number of BJP's Lok Sabha seats in May
2024 parliamentary polls. A clue of this apprehension came from
statements being made by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in public in
the recent past. After the drubbing in Karnataka, Shah said at public
meetings that the BJP will get 300 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. Earlier,
he used to claim that the BJP will win 350
seats. Several senior BJP leaders are apprehensive that coming
together of 14-15 Opposition parties in key states of Bihar, UP,
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu,
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka etc may give a tough challenge to the party
in 2024. The Congress has already signaled that the Gandhis have
opted out of the race for the Prime Minister's post in 2024. This has
brought a new fervor for Janata Dal (U) leader Nitish Kumar who is
playing a key role in uniting the Opposition parties. Mamata Banerjee
showed her affection for the Congress at Patna conclave when she
told Arvind Kejriwal and Congress to sort out bilateral differences
outside the meeting over a “cup of tea”. But Modi is in no mood
to relent and wants to take on them even if they come together.
Perhaps, late Indira Gandhi's slogan of 1971 still rings in his ears
"Ye Kahatein hein Indira Hatao, Mein Kahatin hoon Garibi Hatao".
Interestingly, the Jana Sangh, erstwhile avatar of BJP was part of
the opposition alliance which faced humiliating defeat in Lok Sabha
polls. Modi may coin a new slogan in 2024 to defeat the
united Opposition.
Third fronts in states worrying Congress!
After being snubbed by the Congress & others at the Patna conclave, the Aam Aadmi Party is exploring tie-ups with other regional parties in states. A new alliance may take shape in Maharashtra where AAP may join hands with the Bharat Rashta Samithi (BRS) headed by Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao. There are already reports that Prakash Ambedkar headed Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) may also join hands with KCR and Kejriwal. Interestingly, the AIMIM is already in alliance with BRS in Telangana and possibility of a tacit understanding with Asaduddin Owaisi can't be ruled out in Maharashtra too. If this happens, the Congress-NCP-Shiv Sena (UBT) may be at the receiving end. Owaisi had caused a body blow to the Congress in Assembly and Lok Sabha polls earlier. The BRS is also keen to contest Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh as well. There are reports that dissident Congress leader Sachin Pilot is also exploring options in Rajasthan as the Assembly polls draw near. There are reports that Lok Sabha MP and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) leader Hanuman Beniwal and BSP may join hands in Rajasthan in the Assembly polls. It is whispered that poll strategist Prashant Kishore is advising Sachin Pilot these days. There are reports that a third front in Chhattisgarh may also emerge within the next couple of months. If this happens, the Congress may find going tough.
Akhilesh's 50:30 formula
Irrespective of statements made by Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav in public, it is almost certain that he will contest the next Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the Congress and other parties. The RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary may not have attended the Patna conclave of the Opposition parties in the wake of reports that he has opened a pipeline with the BJP as the ruling party wants to strengthen its Jat vote bank. The wrestlers have already been handled by Home Minister Amit Shah and there is no apparent reason for the farmers' leaders to be angry anymore as three bills had been withdrawn. But Akhilesh Yadav has not given up his efforts to woo Jayant Chaudhary. It is also emerging that the Dalit group, Azad Samaj Party (ASP) led by Chandra Shekhar Azad ‘Ravan’, may finally enter into seat sharing arrangements with Akhilesh Yadav. It is now emerging that the SP will contest 50 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP leaving rest for the allies including the Congress and others. The SP had won a maximum of 36 Lok Sabha seats since its inception. Therefore, the SP will share the rest of 30 seats with other parties.
Putting Best foot forward
It is now clearly emerging that most of the Union Ministers who are members of the Rajya Sabha may be asked to contest for Lok Sabha in 2024. Be it Leader of the Rajya Sabha and Cabinet Minister holding many portfolios Piyush Goyal or Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman or even External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Prahlad Joshi, Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, MSME Minister Narayan Rane, Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnav, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya and Labour Minister Bhupendra Yadav. The BJP leadership wants to put its best foot forward in states where it needs to improve its Lok Sabha tally including Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Karnataka, Telangana, Maharashtra and other states.
