Crisis in NCP far from over, No threat to
Maha Govt.
NCP leader & Lok Sabha MP Suptiya Sule's statement that she
expected two political explosions – one in Delhi and another in Maharashtra –
in the coming days indicates that the political crisis in the MVA is far from
over.
Obviously, she was referring to the expected explosion in Delhi
which may arise after the Supreme Court verdict in early May. According to
legal luminaries, the SC will decide on two crucial legal points; if the
rebellion within the Shiv Sena led by Shinde amounts to defection under the
Tenth Schedule of the Constitution and whether the Speaker of a House can
disqualify members, despite the members sending him a notice of his
removal. In the event of the SC disqualifying 16 MLAs the alliance
government may have to face another explosion as the then rebel leader Eknath
Shinde was also part of this group who were served with a disqualification
notice by the deputy speaker.
However, the BJP high command here doesn't see an explosion
taking place in Maharashtra. It is confident that even if 16 MLAs are
disqualified, there is no threat to the government as the alliance will still
have a majority on its own. At present, 162 MLAs are with the government
including 5 MLAs of smaller parties and 12 Independents besides BJP (105) &
Shinde Sena (40). If the 16 MLAs are disqualified, the strength of the Assembly
will come down to 262 instead of 288. The government will be left with the
support of 146 MLAs though it will require the magic figure of 132 MLAs only.
The BJP leadership is not averse to the idea of garnering the
support of more MLAs from other parties. But what will be the contours of the
new government in the event of Shinde being disqualified, continues to be in
the realms of possibilities.
