Fly on the Wall
RSS dousing fire
Days after RSS’s number two Dattatreya Hosabale caused a flutter by painting a grim picture of the Indian economy; RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat heaped praises on the Modi government. If Hosabale said that “poverty stands like a demon before us” and 20 crores people in India are below poverty line, Mohan Bhagwat doused the fire claiming that the economy was returning to pre-Covid levels. Those tracking the RSS-BJP relationship closely were shocked as Hosabale is considered close to Prime Minister Modi. In fact, Hosabale’s induction as number two in the RSS hierarchy was delayed as Bhayyaji Joshi continued to hold the post despite poor health. Therefore, Hosabale’s comments that 23 crore India earns Rs.375/- a day” only; that unemployment is at a high of 7.6% and that 1% Indians own a fifth of national income while 50% Indians own just 13.5%” national income, caused ripples in the Parivar. Hosabale’s comments were not off-the-cuff remarks either as he was speaking as chief guest at a function hosted by Swadesh Jagran Manch. However, four days later, Bhagwat sought to give a clean chit to the government on the job crisis at a Dussehra rally in Nagpur. He said the Centre alone can’t solve the problem and the society must come forward to create opportunities and become self-reliant. As if this was not enough, he heaped praises on the Modi government citing India’s aid to crisis-hit Sri Lanka and the stand taken on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He went on to add that it’s a sign of the strength of the country that its voice is being heard at the global level. Bhagwat’s statement makes it clear that at the top, the RSS remains firmly behind Modi.
Early Assembly Polls in Odisha
India’s longest serving Chief Minister of Odisha Naveen Patnaik is toying with the idea of de-linking Assembly polls along with the Lok Sabha elections. Though Pawan Kumar Chamling of Sikkim was CM for 24 years and Patnaik has completed 22 years and two more years to go. But the 75 year old Patnaik is going strong in Odisha while Chamling has retired. Reports emanating from Odisha indicate that Patnaik is toying with the idea of advancing Assembly polls early and de-link from Lok Sabha polls in May, 2024. Though he remains the unquestioned leader of the state, the BJP has emerged as a big challenger virtually decimating the Congress. In 2019 when polls were held simultaneously for Lok Sabha and Assembly, BJP came very close to Biju Janata Dal in terms of vote share. The BJP polled 32.49% of popular votes and won 23 Assembly seats in the 147-member House. The BJD polled 44.71% votes with 112 seats in its kitty. But the outcome of LS polls gave shock to political strategists. The BJD obtained 12 Lok Sabha seats with 42.80% votes while the BJP’s vote share jumped to 38.40%. The Odisha voter gave BJP 6% more votes in Lok Sabha polls compared to vote share in Assembly. Patnaik has sensed the danger of an aggressive BJP and keen to de-link Assembly with the LS polls. He would like to win the state first, sometime in 2023 and then enter the LS poll fray in May 2024.
BJP gunning for Kejri not Congress!
The Delhi CM and Aam Aadmi Party leader, Arvind Kejriwal, recently dined with an auto driver at the latter’s home in Ahmedabad after receiving an invitation during an election rally. Kejriwal had done the same in Ludhiana while campaigning for the Punjab assembly elections and successfully sold the "Delhi Model". Kejeriwal is doing the same in Gujarat where Assembly polls are due later this year. The Congress has reasons to be worried as Kejriwal walked away with its vote bank in Delhi and Punjab and dealt a body blow to the BJP too. The Congress continues to be dormant in Gujarat as the party's entire machinery is busy either with Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra or organizational elections.
But the BJP is not taking any chances neither in Gujarat nor in Himachal Pradesh. It has realized that AAP is a greater danger compared to the Congress. The BJP is wooing AAP workers and leaders in every district and town to dump Kejriwal and has an "open door policy." It is applying every weapon in its armory to weaken AAP and even disrupt Kejriwal's rallies. The PM camped in Gujarat for three-days in a row and took potshots at AAP and avoided critical references for Congress. The BJP wants Congress to be its principal challenger and not AAP. If reports are to be believed, the BJP leadership declined to admit nearly two dozen Congress MLAs in Gujarat who were ready to dump the Congress. Even Modi wondered at his rallies as to why the Congress has stopped abusing him and "working silently" to capture rural votes. He termed AAP as “Urban Naxal” without naming. Obviously, the BJP has reasons to be worried as Kejriwal has been able to create a buzz among the youths and down-trodden in urban areas.
